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50184962 No.50184962 [Reply] [Original]

If the euro falls below $1 US inflation will get truly insane.

>> No.50184979

>>50184962
Are you saying US inflation will get insane, or if the euro falls to below $1 US, european inflation will get insane.
Because inflation is going to be insane as soon as they stop raising the rates because everything starts to fall apart anyways.

>> No.50184993

That doesn't follow, strong dollar -> cheaper imports -> lower prices

>> No.50185034

>>50184993
Strong dollar=case against inflation being controllable through rates
Rate raises are for when the dollar is weak

>> No.50185044

>>50184993
Stronger dollar means weaker Euro, means if they want to import commodities like gas/oil they will need to pay higher price denominated in euro, exports are not increasing at the moment, leading to further weakness in Euro.
Eventually they will reach a point where they will be basically giving away shit for free, but that's not the idea anon lol

>> No.50185080
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50185080

>>50184993

>> No.50185109

>>50185080
not sure the eurozone wanted it quite like this lol, Inflation will pick up because balance of trade has shifted in last 10 years.

>> No.50185506

>>50185080
what is this fake red checkmark?
what website do you visit at home?

>> No.50185540

Exact opposite, people will start hoarding dollars even more

>> No.50185630
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50185630

>>50184962
Yep. Only retards don't understand the (((euro))) only was created by the US to serve as buffer to sponge excess USD. The EU failing is simply meaning the buffer is broken, and the contagion with soon spread incontrollably.
But (((they))) knew about it for decades, that's what vassals are for when everything is crumbling down : offer time. And the EU will offer enough time for the US to pull the ultimate scam before abandoning a continent they looted, humiliated, corrupted, tainted and financially raped for the past 80 years.

>> No.50185668

>>50185540
All the capital who could leave the euro for USD already have done so, as Washington sent a pretty clear message to anybody with a brain almost a year ago : "we will raise rates while forcing the ECB to stay at ZIRP, you better move out".
Every last shekel who could be siphoned away from the EU already have been siphoned. Now it's time to die.

>> No.50187160

>>50185630
Basically this

>> No.50187429

I hate Europe so much it ain't even funny

>> No.50187450

>>50185630
But how do I profit from this as an europoor? Other than suicide

>> No.50187637

>>50184962
good thing I swapped half of my money for dollars a year ago...

should I sell all of my remaining euros for dollars?

>> No.50187918

>>50185506
Red check is truth social I think

>> No.50187923

Euro is still stronger then the Dollar, keep coping amerisharts

>> No.50187935

Introducing the e-euro
Coming soon to a soulbound wallet near you.

>> No.50188064

>>50184962
How the fuck is this a bad thing if you're euroscum? I get paid in USD and my paycheck basically went up 50%.

>> No.50188085

>>50188064
Yeah how is your currency turning into toilet paper bad? Obviously literally everyone on the European continent has their savings and wages exclusively in foreign currencies and other assets.

>> No.50188125

>>50188064
>how is everyone around me getting poorer bad

>> No.50188144

>>50184962
>prints TRILLIONS of dollars
>30 or 40% of all dollars that were ever printed were printed in the last couple years
>dollar appreciates against every other currency in the world except the Israeli shekel
How the fuck do they do it? Any other country with this kind of monetary policy would be in hyperinflation right now.

>> No.50188158

>>50184979
ending the rate hikes on its own won't do it. you can't force consumers to go on wild spending sprees, or to pour their income into stocks at any old retard-high price. consumer confidence won't come back until wages rise to meet the "new normal" of $4-5 gasoline.
the inflation has already happened. it has already gone insane. now we get the bust. if the government lets the bust happen without QE, it will be painful and it will take a couple of quarters, maybe even a year.
if the government does not let it just happen, then however hard they work to soften the bust, they will also prolong it. traders that have no skills for bear markets will have an absolute shit time, for maybe 2-3 years.

>> No.50188176

>>50188144
no, hyperinflation is when you cross the boundary from doubling in a year to printing multiples of your supply in less than a year. the US took a few years to double the supply. it can, and will, back away from the precipice.
it's also appreciating against other currencies that inflated even harder. relative and absolute measures are not comparable.

>> No.50188178

>>50188144
Because every other central bank printed even more, the EURO still has NEGATIVE interest rates lmao

>> No.50188182

>>50185080
trumptard isn't technically wrong, because germans love to sell more cars, but that's not clear cut for all EU sectors

>> No.50188196

>>50187935
the "digital euro" will be US dollars. you're being Financially Annexed by the world superpower.

>> No.50188208

>>50188176
>it's also appreciating against other currencies that inflated even harder
So even the Swiss printed money during the pandemic? They're usually pretty averse to that.

>> No.50188218

>>50184993
imports are not how economies actually function. they are a luxury.
>>50185080
he's right. i have already begun positioning myself in european stocks. they will outperform the US for a while. it's also likely that emerging markets will take off in the next couple years as well.

>> No.50188235

>>50188158
soft landing not possible
year of pain imminent
dw
crypto reacts first, then nasdaq, then dow, snp etc, then real-estate
crypto is near the bottom if it hasnt already, nasdaq is in a bear, others are close, real-estate will take another 18 months.
dw, cbdc and crypto regulation will save us and let us get a btc etf and apple will adopt crypto to their apps..
the future is bleek in the short-term and also dystopian in the long-term... but at-least my internet coins will bounce back.

>> No.50188244

>>50188208
of course purchasing power is not inflation itself, but...
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/swiss-catch-inflation-bug-prices-rise-fastest-pace-14-years-2022-06-02/
unbelievably, yes, they ran the presses way more than they normally would have. their reputation as a purely deflationary currency is dead though. they've been targeting 0-2% "conservatives" for years now.

>> No.50188278

>>50188235
well "soft" is always possible because it is judged relative to the one and only Hard landing. you'll learn that about politics if you don't already know it: the Hard landing is always the one that was potentially worse. no matter what actions government takes, no matter what the subject is, they will always argue that things would have been worse without their actions.
but i mean apart from that your point is taken. the government will "do something to soften" like i say, but it will be quite Hard to the average person, anyway, because their hands are increasingly tied.
but they will tell you that they could have raised rates to 10% and left them there for a year, sending unemployment to 35-40%, and luckily didn't have to.

>> No.50188341

>>50188235
as for the specific predictions, real estate damage is not going to be as bad as many people now think. lending standards were raised again after the GFC and they were held there. it has been relatively difficult to qualify for a mortgage in the past ten years, just like it used to be. the valuations are a bit high obviously, and buyers are not gonna be coming to the table at those prices, but that isn't what's important to the real estate market. that's just important to the people who are on the hook already.
mortgage holders cannot just walk out like during the GFC. they have put five figures down and they are paying off historically low rates near 3% to own those homes, and we're talking about single people and single families, in single homes, not investors with 2nd and 3rd holdings that they rent out. that shit is not a huge appreciable chunk of the market anymore.
will just sum it by saying, i think valuations are probably 15% too high, and actual prices paid in the next 3-5 years will be that much lower in 2022 dollars. we may inflate so that nominally, you don't see the difference, but that's probably about where we are in real terms.

>> No.50188356

>>50188278
by government do you mean federal reserve which is an entirely independent institution?
they've been honest about what they're going to do the whole time (apart from the "inflation is transitory" narrative) and they're going to let it tank... no more neet bucks, no more worker shortages, no more covid, no more lockdowns, no more "stay home and stay safe" no more nothing..
BACK TO WORK WAGGGGIEEEEE , YOU NEEDA FIX THE SUPPLY CHAIN WAGGIEEEEE, because if you dont? you will not be able to affort basic living expenses.
this is how its going to be until the fed pivots again.
both out-comes are shit but i prefer the first, people needa feel some pain after they just got paid to stay home for a literal cold.

>> No.50188380

>>50188356
>which is an entirely independent institution?
that is a hilarious joke. the fed does what the white house tells them to. it has been this way since volcker retired, and it will never not be that way again.

>> No.50188403

>>50188085
>>50188125
>NOOOO, YOU CAN'T JUST TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE CURRENT SITUATION
I vill get ze money
I vill move to a rich neighborhood
I vill not donate to ze charities

>> No.50188413

>>50188341
interesting post, i can tell youre much older than me and from my perspective, i can see how the "you will own nothing, and be happy" wef mantra can play out, even IF housing isnt as over-valued as you say, cost of living and maintaining relevance in todays society is really fucking expensive and for alot of people my age (unless you and your gf both earn over 100k a year and hardly do anything) the goal of a house is just an abstract thought with no realistic pathway to achieve it, im a zoomer and i can see why millienial's are desperate for a full-scale housing collapse.. but I do think you're right.. it'll probably only be specific area's where speculation has taken over that will be most affected.. not so much starter homes.

>> No.50188430

>>50184962
If we can't afford to buy shit, it becomes cheaper for you.

>> No.50188485
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50188485

>>50188380
oh i see, you still believe in the charade of politics and not the laws of the jungle. taking into account bribery, blackmail, coercion, pedo islands, narratives, ancient ideology's and "secret" influential societys, cia, fbi, lobbyists.... how in the fuck do you believe a decrepit, senile old man is pulling the strings?

>> No.50188493

>>50188403
That's not what I was saying at all. The situation sucks because the currency of half a continent is falling. This is completely unrelated to your or my specific situation

>> No.50188505

>>50184962
Delusional vatnik logic, go back to russia today. Like russians know anythinh about free market economies, they are literal modern slaves

>> No.50188507

>>50188178
If we stop being able to print money to pay for useless eater refugees the EU will collapse. The demographic situation in the EU is bad, but foreigners make it so much worse.

EU is dead man walking.

>> No.50188532

>>50188493
I think it's not that bad because it's not the euro getting weaker, it's the usd getting stronger against all other currencies. This is good for american imports and good for european exports.

>> No.50188542

>>50188532
I live in Europe, things are definitely not good.

>> No.50188545

>>50188413
yep. i can tell, too. i'm not just older i also began following markets and the economy right into the storm of the GFC, so i cut my teeth on it, and all the various opinions that were floated then. i know that "nothing ever happens" is still very true, despite all that. the dramatic bullshit that you read on (for example) zerohedge has never changed. we have had droughts, and then deluges, and bad farm crop years, repeatedly.
bottom line, most people who write articles are hucksters.
the situation was the same for me: home prices were lower, but i started at around 50k/yr and was still paying college debt so it was impossible to conceive that i would be where i am now. i was able to catch up by taking on new jobs about every 2 years. becoming the best employee i can be. i don't have hangups about it and i never used the word "wagie" or anything like it.
my wife doesn't work. i own my home, and three cars, outright (i had a 30-year mortgage but i'm a lucky trader and working on being a good investor). just because it took me 20+ years to get to this point, when it only took the equivalent boomer 10+ years, is no cause for being a bitch, so i'm not one. mind your own knitting, succeed, and let others wail and gnash their teeth. maybe it takes you longer to get to this point, 30-40 years, but whatever. stop comparing yourself to others.
and you can write all you want about how things shouldn't be this way, but you'll still have to carve your own future out of all the detritus. then, once you're enfranchised because you are financially secure, then you can do something about it.

>> No.50188565

>>50188485
like i just wrote: "nothing ever happens."
real life just isn't that dramatic. it's the banality of evil that is the worst part. kids are probably getting raped by elite pedophiles every single day, even now.
but nothing ever happens about it.

>> No.50188572

>>50188542
Nah, they're fine. Western europeans worry too much.

>> No.50188581

>>50184962
>euro drops below $1
Imagine US goblinos showing up to Europe and nakadashi'd all of your Euro waifus because $7.25 minimum wage makes them rich bastards in Europe.
Literal midget mexican illegals will be able to work in the US for five years and then use their riches to colonize Spain and cuck the original Spaniards.
Topkek

>> No.50188651

>>50188581
Euro status degraded to yet another rupee/dinar/peso.... Hold me evrobros..

>> No.50188723

>>50188144
As much as the US printed and dropped rates, other countries printed more and dropped rates harder. The ECB had negative rates since 2014 for fucks sake. The writing was on the wall long before the virus and US printing started.

>> No.50188747

Few years ago I read some article that a strong dollar is bad for the US economy on the long run but honestly I've forgot the reasons why.
Just the headline stuck with me

Anyone more knowledgeable knows if this is true or not?

>> No.50188795

>>50188747
Muh exports which don't matter that much seeing the USA is all about imports and exporting some high tech stuff nobody else can offer.

>> No.50188807
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50188807

>>50185630

>> No.50188931

>>50188747
It's generally bad for domestic business.
It's generally good for the consumer since their dollar goes further, but arguably bad for the consumer who is also an employee that lives paycheck to paycheck and works for the domestic business.
Stuff is all relative.

>> No.50189014

>>50188545
Thank you anon I needed to hear that

>> No.50189030

>>50188795
>>50188931
thanks

>> No.50190147
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50190147

>>50188144
In terms of the US economy size the printing wasn't that bad. Plus no Italy or Poland dragging down the US economy. The fed did like 4 trillion of stimulus which is about a years full worth of tax revenue. Obviously that revenue is already used for stuff but it's still manageable for the life of the economy. Just gotta deal with inflation for year or two.