/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>50169298
can't wait to see my uncle go bankrupt after buying 3 houses in the past 12 months

>>50169330
Is your uncle an asshole? Where's he buying houses?

>>50169560
yeah
ottawa

where do I short this dogshit country, get me out

>>50169330
tell him from me I hope he *never* recovers

>>50169916
You gotta short urban apartment reits. (I recommend far OTM put options, since Canadians have no concept of real estate crashes anymore).

>>50169895
Canadians:
> let's run a land pyramid scheme in the middle of an ocean of land
great idea!

>>50169952
better short is second tier banks and MICs

>>50169974
>let's run a land pyramid scheme in the middle of an ocean of land
This will never not be funny. Second lowest population density in the world. "Buy now or forever be priced out"

>>50170136
>MUH 1 trillion immigrants per year bro!

>>50169298
>moving to a comfy place that I'm renting somewhere in the boonies of the okanagon valley (the most beautiful place on the planet)
>going to bide my time until boomers capitulate and buy their bags for $50-100k/house

Life's good bros, I couldn't imagine living in some major city shoebox shithole. Like ya, large houses out here are still millions of dollars (for the time being kek), but the difference is you get a few acres of land, are on a lake and you get 4+ bedrooms in a relatively new house instead of a beat down 2 bedroom shithole in Toronto for the same price.

I may buy more land if it's reasonably priced, I've noticed the price of land isn't keeping up with developed properties, which is retarded because the land is the investment and houses are a depreciating asset

>>50169974
>>50170136
Kek.

what's the full story frogleafbros?

>>50170376
>I've noticed the price of land isn't keeping up with developed properties, which is retarded because the land is the investment and houses are a depreciating asset
Looking at Canadian zillow, I saw this as well. The pricing is absolutely psychological and divorced from reality. Building a kit home in the countryside would cost 4x less than buying a house next door.

>>50170376
Everyone in the Okanagan has thought they lived in the most beautiful place but now it’s just full of albertans and Americans. Good luck when your house burns down

>>50170379
that our country has a literal fuck ton of land and our housing market is fucked. more over who would want to live in Toronto where crime is becoming more rampant. Housing here isnt just fucked its beyond fucked. I for example cant afford anything in my hometown of like 100k people when I work remote as a software engineer making 115k a year. All they are building is condo buildings that are like 330k per unit starting and little commercial plazas around them its depressing.

>>50170379
Pretty standard, basically very few new houses are being built and the new houses isn't keeping up with population growth from immigration. The liberals put in a shit load of red tape for new developments, to the point where it takes up to a decade to get anything approved, and the old boomer conservatives are all campaigning for their lives against any and all new apartments/condos being built anywhere near their houses because it reduces their property value and their entire networth is tied to their mortgage.

Basically we have a high demand but supply is cut down to a trickle. Also, most of the land we have is totally wild and undeveloped, crown land owned by the government and not for sale, or given away to native reserves and not for sale.

It's basically a giant shitshow primed to collapse the second new houses are built

>>50170520
Ya I know it's super based, the hippies have been replaced by libertarians who just want to be left alone. My kind of people. fwiw I'm very familiar with the area, I have tons of family there and visit/vacation there all the time, I'm not just going in blind

>>50170527
Is that why Lil Castro gets re-elected every time?

told my dad multilple times to sell or at least take some profits on his canadian mining and bank stocks just before and at the top

he refused
now he is down 50%
and he came to ask me what to do
i told him to tongue a nigger’s anus

>>50169298
Indeed.

>>50170652
That's mostly because of people not voting. He lost the majority vote, but the election was so last minute that voter turnout was almost the lowest ever (I think around 30-something percent only).

Trudeau won with like 12% of the overall voting population's votes. It sickens me and I hope poilievre wins next election (he's the only politician here who dares speak out publicly against the WEF agenda other than Bernier, who will be a valuable ally but won't win anytime soon)

>>50170521
>All they are building is condo buildings that are like 330k per unit starting
What??? No mang. I live in Toronto. A 500 sqft shoebox starts at 700 in a liveable neighbourhood

>>50170527
>all campaigning for their lives against any and all new apartments/condos being built anywhere near their houses because it reduces their property value
I for one would want property value to drop, but who wants a fucking high-rise in their neighborhood? You WANT a drastic increase in the population density where you live?
Also, if you own a good, large property and the density goes up, your land value will skyrocket, not drop, since a developer could turn it into many units.
All this shit demonizing people who don't want their neighborhoods ruined is just another form of subversion.

all houses in my area are down 10% in 2 months kek

But given that prices doubled in the last 2 years, I'm going to need to see another 40% drop before I consider buying these cardboard homes

>>50170749
Just call it a flu shot at this point.

>>50170136
and the skilled immigrants will keep on coming even when it costs $1mm for a shit hole apartment
> it has to stay up because the boomers need it to retire
Canadians are *so* stupid, they just read the textbook and swallow it whole

Name some good Canadian companies to short. I’ve been looking at shorting their housing market for awhile. Shits so over inflated.

>>50171007
I've just got puts on an etf of the entire country.

I have 150k sitting here for a downpayment, how long do I need to wait for the rural properties to come back to their 2020 350k prices (previously 250k 2019 prices) currently these shit houses are sitting at 650k...

>>50170888
I do agree to an extent, but it's gotten to the point now where hardly anything is being built except luxury apartments/condos in downtown areas. People need housing they can afford, there definitely needs to be a middle ground

>>50171351
it's going to take layoffs and then forced sellers b/c canadians are retards

>>50171351
november

>>50171354
Guillotines seem to be our only hope at this point. Investors properties will get more and more expensive to service, rent will increase, it will reach a hilt when people literally arent paid enough to afford rent. Government will pass some "helpful" stimulus to the poor only for them to hand it to their landlords and then recession will hit and well be back where we started.

>>50171450
I saw a 1 bedroom 1 hour outside of Ottawa for 200k. It's not that bad if you know where to look.

>>50171582
My company operates in the GTA, I like ottawa but not enough work for me. Looking 1.5 hours out of the GTA (I only work 2-3 days per week)

>>50171582
this has to be bait. one hour one bed $200k outside of a tiny "city" of nearly 1mm ppl

>>50171801

>>50171830
get fucked with your middle of nowhere bullshit.
it's not a solution in aggregate.
you must be Canadian

>>50171989
Nah I'm an American profiteering off the fall of Canadian real estate and equities. I'm just saying that living in a shit-shack is a decent way to avoid rent, if your rent is expensive. You could also may be live on a sailboat. But that requires a lot of technical knowledge and love for sailing.

>>50170580
You sound like an obese chud.

>>50172038
I know you think you are smart, but muttland has a low avg iq. Living on a boat isn't going to fix the canadian system.

>>50172090
>Living on a boat isn't going to fix the canadian system.
The system will fix itself eventually. The only question is how you can position yourself to make the most profit off of it. To that end, I was recommending ways to avoid paying rent, while minimizing your exposure to the housing market.

>>50172170
We're at peak oil. What makes you say this?
>The system will fix itself eventually.

Good luck finding someone to take on a new construction RN, I booked hydro 3weeks ago, new connection and have to wait until October..

>>50172170
already paying low rent desu i could get that advice from a monkey

>>50172083
Naw I'm an incredibly fit chud

>>50170450
>>50170376
Thoughts on land between Barrie and Thunder Bay?

>>50172414
>peak oil
Token not needed.

>>50172550
>renewable
Oh god, we're all going to die. Do you understand that it takes an egregious amount of current energy (as in oil) to create the infrastructure required to harvest the level of resources we need to maintain our current standard? Additionally, geopolitically you need globalism in full swing for you to even make the attempt. Are we in full swing, anon? Finally, storage is still an issue.

>>50172550
Canadians use more energy per capita than most, they are 6th in the world.
in the winter you have to heat continuously or the heat just flows out at -25C

>>50172617
Ooh ooh, now tell him about the lack of materials in the entire world to produce enough EVs globally

Canada is a depressing place to live if you’re below the 80th percentile.

>>50169298
canada is fucked, this website was created 12 YEARS ago. basically you guess if a house is a crackshack or a mansion (>$1million)
>https://www.crackshackormansion.com/
hint: they are all mansions
sad part is that house prices have gone up by 150% atleast since this website was created, thus a lot of these ~$1million dollar crack shacks are now $2-4 million

>>50172660
no that's not correct.
wages have nearly fuck all to do with it.
either you bought 5+ years back and you are fine.
or you didn't, and you are fucked.
> get a better job
if you earn more you lose half in tax

>>50170521
Stop whining retard, you make more than 95% of Canadians.

>>50172458
Good for you, you clearly know better than I do, so hopefully you can make a lot of money off falling prices.
>>50172522
I'm not Canadian so I have no stake in the game and don't know any specifics about real estate.
>>50172617
Yeah I dunno, just like, eat the bugs or something. You don't have to consume as much as boomers did. Renewables should be used at the point-of-production, such that farms, mines, charging stations, and quarries have their own energy generation. France has demonstrated that running your whole country on Nuclear is possible as well.

>>50172693
You’re a literal fuckwit that doesn’t know anything.

bros how the fuck do I leave this shitty country and go to the states
do I have to get a work visa or go to college for a student visa or what

I have about 250k cash sitting on the sidelines, sold my downtown Toronto condo last year at a slight loss just to get out. I am looking at some detached that my gf and I could buy down the line. My concern is the future political stability of Canada.

Currently living with parents but I am unemployed, working on a software company but it's going to take me a year or two to get the project to final product.

The rest of my money in stock and equity is down like 50k CAD this year.

I tell myself I am doing okay given the market conditions but I really wish I sold alot of my holdings when I had the chance. I was up >50% on stocks like AMD last year but I head them all the way down to break even before finally giving up. Rode it up and then down back to where I started.

In 20/20 hindsight if I had managed better I could be close to break even as opposed to 10% down.

>>50172706
Oh, I agree with you in spirit, anon. We can Frankenstein a solution that will at the very least make an attempt to hit the mark which is good good. It's the level of cooperation you're selling me is what I am not buying. As an example, good luck getting Germans to go nuclear, chief. Your problem isn't lack of options, it's the surplus of dumbfucks.

>>50172737
I don’t get why faggots like yourself with $250k cash are whining. You’re better off the vast majority of Canadians. Stop being a whiny faggot and kys. Fuck you and your crotch rot gf

>>50172731
Get to Mexico than illegally cross the border to the US.

>>50172819
>it's the surplus of dumbfucks.
dumbfucks become real smart when they are on the brink of devastation. I look forward to humanity being forced to innovate and make electricity cheaper. This will also probably push manufacturing and robotics/synth biology forward in 30 years.

>>50172737
>My concern is the future political stability of Canada.
agreed on this, they are nuts when it comes to housing, just retarded

>>50172888
>dumbfucks become real smart when they are on the brink of devastation
You are wrong and you are going to learn this. Also, checked. Good luck with the optimism.

>>50172888
Its unironically game over for the planet, nobody paying attention to those ipcc leaks?

>>50172880
...would this actually work? i've got a good reserve of cash built up, i just need status in the us so that i can live in a less cucked country
what is wrong with this world

>>50172937
>You are wrong and you are going to learn this
Plenty of innovative things happened in WW1 and WW2 for example. Innovation is at its worst when people are complacent and the economy is booming.

>>50172965
You could get a master's in machine learning or data science in the US, like all the indians do.

>>50172973
Innovation is akin to faith when used in this context. If that believe brings you comfort, go for it. Hopium away.

>>50169974
Ottawa is such a mess. People claim the land is "virtually infinite", but the city already has the lowest density of the top 5 in Canada. It's like 4 or 5 times the land area of Montreal with only a touch more than half the population. Getting around there is a motherfucking slog when you have a car. One of my best friends lives way out by Casselman and has cucked himself into believing 1.5h+ of commuting every day is somehow worth it.

>>50172947
>game over for the planet
No it’s game over for millennials. The other gens will live normal functioning and sexual lives.

>>50170763
>12%
>it's not democracy!!!
Harper won on 24% of the popular vote in his last triumph. Shit has always been this gay, you just don't pay attention until you hate the winning team in the corruption circus.
>inb4 lib
eat my asshole, nigger

>>50172965
900k usd you can buy a green card

>>50173079
glad im leaving this shithole for good in december

>>50169330
This. I hope everyone who bought the top of the real estate market in the last 2-3 years gets utterly financially roped into a black hole. Some blue collar wagie friend of a friend was talking mad shit to me because I'd rather pay my brother $600 for room and board and sit on cash instead of buying the top of the mortgage bubble.

I wish nothing but pain on these top buyers

>>50173168
Good riddance pajeet

>>50170763
Pierre Poilievre is
>pro-immigration
>pro-lgbt
>pro-green “energy”
>pro-Israel
He’s the exact same as Trudeau and Jagmeet except he’s 100 times more likely to tell you to die for Israel.

>>50172947
>ipcc leaks?
I don't follow shitcoins

Things have gone too far. Violence is inevitable

>>50173016
i'm dumb as rocks but something like this was essentially my plan, if i can avoid college that would be swell however

>>50173151
okay i don't have that much saved up

>>50173128
>>50173238
Harper was also the one who raised shitskin migration to 400k/yr (not including visas/students who obviously wont leave). Turdo really didn't even touch a whole lot of the migration issue, funny enough. CPC are all paper tiger faggots, and we have no political solutions to saving this bloated dying corpse of a nation. See >>50173325

>>50173385
You know what, I pay more attention to American politics instead of Canadian politics. I know the PC party isn't even that conservative. I know things are bad.
But how bad are they?

>>50173385
This country cannot sustain itself without govt debt for welfare, plebs taking out 7 figure mortgages and bringing new people in to hold the bag (ponzi)

Productivity in this country is shit. We have no military, no infrastructure in this sprawling wasteland. Canada only exists via inertia and it’s proximity to the US

>>50172844
I am not, but never be satisfied with what you did. I managed to only lose 50k, thats better than most sure, but there are guys out there that MADE 50k, or even more.

You gotta aim higher and always be hustling. You should always be analyzing what you did for how you could have done better.

>>50170825
He was talking about his pop 100K hometown retard

>>50170888
>You WANT a drastic increase in the population density where you live?
The problem is that the population is increasing so this needs to happen
>b-but Canada is big go live soemwhere else
you might say. But if you look at job availability and existing population distribution you'll see that the functional size/livable area of Canada is relatively small, a narrow band near the US border.
Just as you said, density = property values go up. So if you think living further from urban centres is feasible, just let the development happen, sell your house, and move to Kamloops yourself.

>>50171351
Depending on the province, I think an inflation-adjusted dip might hit in Spring 2026. I hope it happens sooner, but I don't think there will be a crash, honestly. We are being flooded with so many Indians and Chinese that we would require China forbidding emigration and for South Asian economies to boom, this luring back all the Indians (similar to U.S.-Mexico lately).

>>50172737
>sold my downtown Toronto condo last year at a slight loss just to get out.
Why didn't you hire a property manager to rent it out and live-off the profit by renting somewhere rural.
>I was up >50% on stocks like AMD last year but I head them all the way down to break even before finally giving up.
>10% down.
Wow, this infuriates me.

>>50174248
dude if you just baghold speculative assets you are ngmi
the market does not care about your personal profit targets, in fact it is likely that technically it will reject those to inflict maximum pain because you and the rest of retail think similarly

i also bagheld meme coins like a retard and learned from it . hope you learned and figured out a trading strategy. dca is retarded and a meme for normies . set profit targets based on technical levels and get out when they are hit

Not one person has put forth a convincing argument as to why real estate in this country will ever go down (and by that I mean the cost of ownership, not the principle; remember that rising interest rates lower the principle but not the monthly payments you make; in fact those go up with rising inflation and rising interest rates -- those costs also get passed down to the renter to landlords win (again)).

I'm here waiting on the sidelines with 200k, but I guarantee you shit ain't ever coming back down to reality. Immigration machine is in full swing, NIMBYs will make sure that no new housing is built. Politicians are NIMBYs too -- Toronto just passed changes that made the baseline cost of building a SFH or TH over $100k. That's BEFORE land acquisition cost or building cost, that's what a developer must pay to the city for ever SFH built, up like $50k from last year.

There is no crash, Canada is the crucible where immigrants and young people fight it out tooth and nail over smaller and smaller scraps while foreign money and generational wealth collect fees for entry and laugh at the resultant blood and guts.

>>50173385
Haha you know it's not often that I feel like maybe I was a little too brash in going on the attack. Our politics have been fucked for a long time. The CPC rely on a lot of chink and muslim votes. I used to ram this chink from Markham and her dad was in love with Bernier, too. My good friend who has that long ass commute is a CPC voter because they're "based" and "will do something about housing". He's pretty right wing except on racial issues. Real bummer how they split us this way.

>>50174573
immigrants will stop coming
the young will leave
in both cases the best will act earliest

>>50174573
>Not one person has put forth a convincing argument as to why real estate in this country will ever go down (and by that I mean the cost of ownership, not the principle; remember that rising interest rates lower the principle but not the monthly payments you make; in fact those go up with rising inflation and rising interest rates -- those costs also get passed down to the renter to landlords win (again)).
More than half of mortgages in Canada are variable rate, hence any increases in interest rates could cause overleveraged investors to foreclose, which would drag everyone else down. Immigrants will just go to other countries because Canada is not liveable.

>>50174688
also the max term fixed is 5 years
every year 20% have to renew

>>50172706
>show up at mine to work your shift
>everyone just standing around
>"uh.. hey guys whats up? we working or what?"
>"yeah, just gotta let the windmill finish charging the excavator. only 12 more hours"

>>50174904
Just have microcontrollers email the workers when the excavator is charged up, or expected to be charged. Solutions will not be perfect to start, but eventually they will be polished and work well.

>>50174688
>More than half of mortgages in Canada are variable rate, hence any increases in interest rates could cause overleveraged investors to foreclose
Canadian banks learned from the US in 2008, all mortgages are stress-tested to a high degree (5+%), people might have to cut back on luxuries but there won't be a mass wave of foreclosures or defaults or whatever in the next 5-10 years. Interest rates are never getting as high as in the '80s and '90s again, remember that our governments now have billions or trillions in debt they must service.

>Immigrants will just go to other countries because Canada is not liveable
Except it is more livable than where those immigrants are coming from OR the immigrants already have so much money that the cost of living does not affect them. Multiple families to a home, unsafe living conditions, rooms with no windows for students, etc are all nbd for people who have it worse in the places they are coming from.

>>50176263
Canadians are massively overconfident on both of these. You have brokers lending against anything with a pulse then banks buy from the brokers who ... err ... did their homework?
As far as Canada being the chosen land. No it's not mate. It's okay.

>>50176263
>Canadian banks learned from the US in 2008, all mortgages are stress-tested to a high degree (5+%), people might have to cut back on luxuries but there won't be a mass wave of foreclosures or defaults or whatever in the next 5-10 years. Interest rates are never getting as high as in the '80s and '90s again, remember that our governments now have billions or trillions in debt they must service.
Yet Canadian real estate is valued at much higher proportions of its GDP than housing was in the US during 2008, and its housing is valued at much higher multiples of its mean income. Canadian housing will not crash for the same exact reasons that American housing crashed, but that is not the only way a crash can occur. In short, qualified mortgagees leveraged 40x are no different than unqualified mortgagees leveraged 3x.

>Except it is more livable than where those immigrants are coming from OR the immigrants already have so much money that the cost of living does not affect them. Multiple families to a home, unsafe living conditions, rooms with no windows for students, etc are all nbd for people who have it worse in the places they are coming from.
There are like 10-20 other 1st world countries for them to choose from.

>>50169974
Australia has been the world leader in this

>>50176336
>>50176340
For the sake of my future I hope I'm wrong and you guys are right

>>50176340
>Yet Canadian real estate is valued at much higher proportions of its GDP than housing was in the US during 2008
no they were "careful", can't you understand?
yes the avg housing is totally out of whack with median wage, but somehow the canadian banks were "careful"
Canadians are deluded. They think Vancouver can compete with London/Paris.

>>50176361
all british ex colonies are leaders because the only thing that really makes a person british is the desire to be a landlord.

the poem of the brit:
they don't want to start a business.
they don't want to invent.
they want to put their hand out once a month
and say, where's the rent

>>50176391
I hope I'm right too, but the problem is bubbles can always be bigger and last longer. I can't say if Canada's bubble will keep growing for another 10 years, or if It will pop this month. If it grew for another 10 years, you could see a Japan-life effect killing housing prices for the next 20 years after that.
>>50176361
Australia still has a lower proportion of its GDP in mortgage lending/real estate, and the rent to house price ratio is not as bad. The mean income to mean housing ratio is slightly better than Canada as well.

>>50176520
it's going to pop if Powell does his job and keeps rates up. If he caves the Canadian rentiers live to fight another day.

>>50176340
> muh valued much higher compared to median income
Of course it happens when interest rates dip, if you want to make a fair analysis you need to look at the monthly payment.
And no, the interest rate won't raise, the Bank of Canada said today they are evaluating to increase their inflation target to 4% in order to save muh economy by keeping interest rates low. Inflation will eat your cash and home price will go up, there will be no cheapies

>>50174678
>immigrants will stop coming
lol no they won't

>>50176555
My thoughts exactly. In any case, betting against delusional Canadians serves as an excellent hedge against rising interest rates in my otherwise bullish/neutral portfolio.

>>50176597
>And no, the interest rate won't raise, the Bank of Canada said today they are evaluating to increase their inflation target to 4% in order to save muh economy by keeping interest rates low. Inflation will eat your cash and home price will go up, there will be no cheapies
Doesn't matter, my puts are denominated in USD, so I'd make money anyways.

>>50170684
Did he laughed?

>>50172888
we have cheap electricity already. It's called nuclear. You just have to build nuclear power plants.

>>50176597
rates are going up
prices went up when they went down, this is the reversal

>>50176610
the quality will go down.
your canadian arrogance is showing.

>>50176639
yeah nobody is suggesting staying in CAD here fella, oh dear oh dear

>>50176789
what's the arrogance? You agreed with him. You can't stop indians and chinese from coming to canada because they come from countries that are

1. over populated
2. poor
3. awful culturally.

>>50176832
they can go elsewhere if they can earn enough to actually contribute more than they take, which is required to boost land prices.
you will get lower and lower quality.
you haven't invented a perpetual motion machine.
you are overconfident.

>>50176832
As cost of living increases, less immigrants will go to Canada over alternatives though. It's not as though Canada is immune to basic microeconomics.