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/biz/ - Business & Finance


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50150713 No.50150713 [Reply] [Original]

Everywhere I look people are predicting the end times, a major recession, and a further 20-30% equities downturn (at least). If this shits so inevitable, why isn't it already priced in? Why isn't the SP500 dropping 5% a day? Why isn't the big money running for the hills already?

>> No.50150842

Because it's all fake anon, the narrative will shift and we go bull very soon.

>> No.50150867

>>50150713
because "priced in" is a nonsensical handwaving argument for retards.

>> No.50150899
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50150899

>>50150867

>> No.50150916
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50150916

>>50150713
big money is already behind the hills

>> No.50150917

>>50150867
priced in doesn't mean all future information has been priced in. it just means that by the time you (a pleb) hear about it, it's already been priced in.

>> No.50150953

>>50150842
This

>> No.50151059

>>50150867
the alternative is that everyone has this super relevant game changing piece of information (inevitable crash) and is just magically choosing to ignore it (by not selling their shit)

>> No.50151086

>>50150917
it's nonsense reasoning that you use to support market movements that you correctly guessed. how many retards were claiming that rate increases were priced in, and then were surprised that the markets dumped on fears of rate hikes? and then, of course, these same retards retroactively reason that the information was not, in fact, priced in. really makes you think.

>> No.50151087

>>50150713
Those are projections of what normies will do. Normies are perpetually in the dark, because they mostly see only what is presented to them. Economists are making projections based on what information they think will trickle into normie consciousness in the near future. They think normies will become scared and start spending less.

>> No.50151118

>>50150713
There is no such thing as something “being priced in”. Each actor in the market makes decisions based on their personal information. If things could be “priced in”, then there would be no opportunities ever to make any profit off the market as everyone has perfect information and they price everything in before it happens.

>> No.50151206

>>50150713
Because they WERE making what they can before the music stops, maximizing profit without leaving anything on the table. Now, they surely are, it just happens in bigger windows than zoomzooms can fathom.

>> No.50151545

>>50151087
>>50151118
ig its just hard for me to believe there can be such a huge disconnect, im probably being naive. i can absolutely accept inefficiencies in the market that allow for profit, and that different actors can look at the same information and reach different conclusions or otherwise act irrationally.

i don't know enough to speak with huge conviction either way, but i have a real hard time believing that if such predictions are as justified and obvious as /biz/ and all these economists are claiming, that the market wouldn't be moving towards them quicker.

>> No.50151581

>>50151086
seethe

>> No.50151629

>>50151059
False.

>> No.50151644
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50151644

>>50150713
Because there are no alternatives

- stocks and crypto in a downturn
- gold and silver manipulaties
- bond low interest rate
- fiat suffers inflation

Everyone keeps position since it can go bull (example russia ending ukrain conflict) or bear (new aggresive corona variant) in a blink of an eye.

>> No.50151650

>>50151581
>more nonsensical hand waving
seethe indeed, nigger cattle.

>> No.50151688

>>50150713
Because even if you were sure society will collapse, why would you behave any different? it's too late now, best to enjoy this farce while you can, after all, when shit hits the fan it will be the end for everyone regardless of what you did, do you really think your portfolio will matter anything after the water wars start and people are starving, fighting each other for food? why would you end the system when it's still benefiting you?

>> No.50151692

>>50151545
Go spend a week on reddit and you'll become a redditor in a week. The same applies here and everwhere.
In other words, everyone in the world is huffing copium and hopium. Everyone sells their hopium and copium to everyone they meet. Everyone buys the hopium and copium of everyone they know. And everyone continues to do the samefucking things regardless because they naively beleive that if enough people are doing something and it goes sideways they either
>a) believe they can bail before everyone else
>b) believe they have leverage in the form of riots along with everyone else
>c) believe that the majority is a protected class and nothing bad will happen to everyone

>> No.50151703

>>50150713
Because everyone knows it will happen, they just don't know when. It could happen in 3 weeks or 3 years.

>> No.50151724

>>50150842
meds rtard bullfag

>> No.50152704

>>50150713
Everyone knows that QT can't last and that the Fed will return to QE before mid-terms so the Demonrats will get elected again. This is the last chance to fill your bags with AAA rated cryptos like CNDL and ENJ.