/biz/ - Business & Finance

not reading your blog ching chong

How does this affect anime and manga?

Where do I short

so what's the going rate of a big breasted Japanese waifu right now?
atleast $6,000,000 NW?

>>50144805
Too much text faggot dumb it down for me

>>50144805
So uh what do I do

>>50144805
>The BOJ is artificially suppressing yields by buying an ass load of bonds
>you know this isn't sustainable
Why isn’t this sustainable?

You'll have to go direct to CME for JGB futures.

Wow that's a lot of words. Did you write all those yourself? I'm taking out a short on your keyboard, it can't lose.

Because it destroys the Yen. They are already very close to capitulating, just a matter of time before their paper becomes a laughing-stock as the fed and other G10 countries continue to tighten monetary policy.

>>50144805
>>50144882
Okay I believe you now tell me how to do that step by step plz

>>50144871
>
Yeah I really went all out with this one. Keyboard says 1 million clicks so we'll have to see. 0.15% margin req for short on my keyboard.

>>50144882
>They are already very close to capitulating
What makes you say this?

>>50144896
>Make a CME Direct account
>Bring up the 10 Year JGB (Globex code ZNU2) and short that shit

>>50144929
Rgr rgr thx anon

>>50144915
Because they're the last country still doing this. And their currency is taking a massive hit for it. If they continue to defend the cap, they'll no longer be able to get foreign investment and their currency will go parabolic against any other pair. TL;DR: Turkey

>>50144959
Do they need foreign investment? Have you been to japan?

>>50144805
I agree with everything you typed OP but it is as you said who knows how long the BOJ can keep this up. People have been burnt in the past shorting these kind of things because it goes on way longer than they thought possible.

World is going into recession. Yen will strenghten

>>50144977
I haven't been to Japan, but I know that low levels of foreign investment are bad. The weak currency also lends to a competitive environment with other Asian countries as China is forced to weaken their currency to maintain a global standing. While a weak yen is good for Japan's export driven economy, it's too weak, and they realize that.

>>50144989
Very true, people have been betting against Kuroda and the BOJ since 2010, but that's why the bond play is pretty risk-averse. They might not change their minds before end of Q4, but it's far more likely that this event will occur in the next 10 years. You have to admit, they are way over-extended and as long as other banks are tightening; something's got to give. It might not, and it will cost them dearly, but I'm betting that it's more likely than not.

>>50144867
Does BOJ have their own printer? Or do they have to buy dollars from Federal Reserve? Is that how this works?

>>50145054
>weak yen is good for Japan
>it's too weak
Hmm a gap in reasoning

>>50144805
I'll offer you one better
Long USDJPY, Short JGB
literally can't lose, and prob will win on both sides in the end

Sounds like a large amount of risk for a poor potential gain?

>>50145107
The argument isn't really whether or not the BOJ is overextended, they are. But whether or not they will be forced to change course. I believe they will because they are quickly losing their safe-haven status. And that's bad for their capital inflows among other things.

This thread, while correct, is also probably the biggest collection of dumbest non-FX people and has probably the most DISGUSTING questions I've seen, to the extent that I don't even consider them trolling.
Also, if you are to do this, you probably need to consider that the US will step in and bail out Japan (ie Japan will use USD to prop up its failing bonds market) which DEFINITELY works for the US and probably would save Japan from a complete collapse

>>50145176
What the hell

>>50145137
The risk is fairly low, as Japan has pledged to defend the yield at 0.25%. Which is already slipping, and increasingly quickly. The only risk that I can see is US intervention, which is fairly unlikely imo.
>>50145176

>>50145176
>The BOJ is artificially suppressing yields by buying an ass load of bonds
> will use USD to prop up its failing bonds market
Why would it do that when they can just buy their own bonds

>>50145229
its not so much a risk as it is a near certainty. If the US doesn't prop up Japan and (fairly soon) the EU, they'll turn to Russia/China and the US will lose massive influence.
The groundwork is already laid down
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds-powell-us-digital-dollar-could-help-maintain-international-primacy-2022-06-17/

>>50145246
currency devaluation to levels that are unsustainable for its own populace when it comes to importing goods from EU, US
Unless you think Japan is self sufficient (lol)

>>50145054
its the opposite, a weak yen is devastating because japan is the 4th largest importer in the world while simultaneously being the most in debt. they're in the same situation america is, trapped between crippling debt and inflation, its literally impossible to fix both

>>50145264
almost fully correct, except Japan doesn't have inflation yet. They've been stuck in depression with ever increasing debt to gdp since the 90s crash
Although they might actually switch from that to hyperinflation

>>50145263
>currency devaluation to levels that are unsustainable
(X) doubt

>>50145278
Currently, the yen has been in freefall with every other country at ~10% cpi.
Tell me what would happen if for whatever reason other countries tame inflation and Japan keeps on keeping on with QE

>>50145289
>other countries tame inflation
Lol

>>50145302
demand destruction can be a hell of a drug

>>50144824
>>50144848

Literally retarded zoomer niggers from reddit. You would have a larger attention span if you didn't spill seed and browse tiktok all day like the nigger faggot cattle we know you both are. Fucking embarrassing

>>50145310

The only zoomers i see are the retards trying to go against the Boj. As if they havent murdered everyone who tries for decades

>>50144805
Capitulating means default it won't happen

Short the fuck out of Japan. These people are so fucking retarded it's incredible. Every single person I've talked to has no idea what inflation is or why prices are going up and they actually think everything can be solved if companies just payed their employees more because they read somewhere that American salaries have been increasing recently. These people need to learn things the hard way and they need to stop relying on America for everything or even believing America will help them with anything. The whole reason the country has been in 30 years stagnation is because of America and they suck American cock so much that they even fathom the thought.

>>50145868
you have to also understand, that's a country that hasn't heard of inflation in over 30 years. That's at least 1 generation that's 30 years old and has NEVER seen inflation in their lifetime

>>50144805

>>50145925
lol

>>50145897
Explain to me this miracle: Why hasn't Japan seen inflation with low interest rates and negative ones since 2016?

>>50145925
this time for sure

>>50145925
what is the saying:
"the market can stay longer irrational than you can stay solvent" or something to that effect

>>50145371
shorting JGBs is the trade that has killed the most hedge funds and has lost the most money over the last 30 years

some of you may have heard of Nick Leeson who singlehandedly collapsed Barings Bank in 1995. what was the trade? short JGBs

good luck zoomers

>>50146024
>The beginning of the end occurred on 16 January 1995, when Leeson placed a short straddle in the Singapore and Tokyo stock exchanges, essentially betting that the Japanese stock market would not move significantly overnight. However, the Kobe earthquake hit early in the morning on 17 January, sending Asian markets, and Leeson's trading positions, into a tailspin.
rekt

Japan will be fine. All they really need are fish, rice and manga which shouldn't be affected much by inflation.

>>50145255
I also feel like it is relatively safe to short these bonds. However, there is a huge risk involved. We are far beyond reasonable actions of Central Banks. They surely have an ace up their sleave as higher rates cannot be carried by most governments right now, as is the case for Japan. It would not be crazy to think that inflation will come down due to a recession and all macro shit that comes with it. Stopping the printing presses will push this deflationary recession in a proper depression. Inflation will stay high of course but not as absurd as it is now. We will then perhaps enter an era of "printing for the people". Which will be a shitshow, but when supported by a CBDC they can keep this up for a while. Certainly not 30 years but perhaps 10 years. I hope not because this will usher in an era of perpetual crisis with zombification, asset inflation and financial repression. Central Banks will never accept the alternative (risking sovereign defaults by raising rates in a recession or depression).

Never bet against the FED but perhaps you can make a bet against the BOJ or ECB as they are both in much worse conditions. If the US jumps in though or YCC will continue you stand to loose quite a lot. Also the question is if you want to tie up a large part of your liquidity into this trade as the horizon is pretty long. Chances are that liquidity will come in much more handy to buy stocks when the printing presses start rumbling again.

>>50145868
this
they cannot keep getting away with it
something is going to break

Betting against the BOJ samurais, you lads are insane.

>>50144805
There's a fucking reason why fighting the BOJ is called a widow maker trade OP

>>50145054
>I haven't been to Japan, but I know that low levels of foreign investment are bad
lol, lmao

For everyone else reading this, there's a reason that speculating on the Japanese yen has been known as a "widow maker". Historically people get it very wrong and lose all their money.

>>50144867
>Why isn’t this sustainable?
They can either defend their yield or their currency
If they keep yields low, rates differentials will lead to continued capital outflow, leaving the yen weaker and weaker
They import most industrial inputs, with the dollar denominated costs of those rising and the yen weakening against the dollar they are killing their economy for keeping their yield target

>>50145105
US fed will just email them more funny money

>>50144805
Are you french?

>>50148750
AAAAAAHHHH I M GONNA CUM

Do not do this, it is a very bad idea.
Japan inc does not work the same way as the rest of the world, eventually some change will happen but Japan can stay weird longer than you can bet. SO this is no better gamble than any other.

For a real change probably uncle Sam will have to have a 'word' with them and -suggest- any change. So when ever it become sin US best interests but Japan is very important strategic partner, who also pays up for protection and is also increasing military spending etc.