/biz/ - Business & Finance

Switch your choice, it's mathematically proven to give you a higher chance of getting the money. This is a well-known puzzle though, so expect a lot of troll answers.

Monty Hall Problem, look it up

>>50134353
To whomever it may concern, my balls hang

>>50134438
this does concern me as my balls hang aswell

>>50134353
50%.

>>50134489

>>50134403
You math fags are so fucking retarded. Are you implying that if you switched your choice the fucking goats and money would somehow switch places on a quantum level or something? The fucking goat and money are still in the same place so it doesn't matter if you switch your choice or not.

You lot are a bunch of pseuds and it's not even funny.

>>50134519
The trick requires a very special caveat, that the host will always open a door with a goat. This is what alters the probability to 50% upon altering upon the 'second choice' vs sticking with your original choice.

>>50134519
>>50134586
People act like this is complicated when it's really not at all
Assuming you switch, then you win whenever your initial pick was a loss, which is a 2/3 chance. Therefore, switching will result in a win twice as often as staying. It is not any more complex than that.

>>50134353
don’t switch.

Why? The gameshow hosts knows the goats. He only gives you this extra option because the gold is behind door number 1. Only if the gameshow host must give you the second option, switch.

>>50134659
Yeah I fucking know, I still think your little thought experiment is retarded and switching wouldn't change a thing because switching choices doesn't affect the location of the money or the goat in any shape or form unless you want to bring quantum physics into this mess, which would only really work if no one knew about the location of the items.

>>50134489
66.6...%

>>50134506
there's a greater chance the gold ball you took was from the box with 2 gold balls, because that box has twice as many gold balls

>>50134519
>>50134725

Who said anything about the prizes physically changing? How did you miss the point of this problem that hard?

>>50134977
This is a retarded ‘well ackshually’ game theory question. Your odds when making the choice to switch is 50/50. That’s it. The money is either behind your door or door 3. Any other outcome is intellectual nonsense. Changing your choice doesn’t give you better odds

>>50135031
>Changing your choice doesn’t give you better odds

"Ackshually" it does you retard. Think of it like this:

You're given two choices throughout the game: your initial door pick, and whether to pick another door when a door containing a goat is revealed. You need to look at all of the outcomes from both choices instead of going "DURR 50/50" on the second choice like you're doing.

If you don't switch, here are all of the possible outcomes:
>Pick Goat 1 Door -> Goat 2 Door is revealed -> Don't Switch = Goat 1
>Pick Goat 2 Door -> Goat 1 Door is revealed -> Don't Switch = Goat 2
>Pick Money Door -> Goat 1 or 2 Door is revealed -> Don't Switch = Money
Which means the probability of picking the money door here is 1/3.

If you do switch however, here are all of the possible outcomes:
>Pick Goat 1 Door -> Goat 2 Door is revealed -> Switch to Money Door = Money
>Pick Goat 2 Door -> Goat 1 Door is revealed -> Switch to Money Door = Money
>Pick Money Door -> Goat 1 or 2 Door is revealed -> Switch to Goat 1 or 2 Door = Goat 1 or 2
Which means the probability of picking the money door here is 2/3.

I don't think I can explain it any clearer than this.

>>50134353
>>50134403
>>50134435
>>50134438
>>50134461
>>50134489
>>50134506
>>50134519
>>50134586
>>50134659
>>50134676
>>50134725
>>50134753
>>50134768
>>50134977
>>50135031
>>50135254

>>50134353
50%

>>50135031
>>50135315
Idiots.

>>50135411
50%

>>50135294
Here's an even easier to understand pic. The colors shown in >>50135294 may confuse some people. Since you aren't allowed to see inside the boxes, this pic matches the reality of the situation better.

Imagine it that way
There are 100 doors, you pick one, then host opens 98 of them, leaving you with the one you choose and additional one
You either follow your initial 1/100 bet, or 99/100 one (as you esentially bet that one of 99 you didnt choosecis the winner)

With 3 doors, you either choose 1/3, or bet on other 2 at the same time.

Yes, I switch my choice because mathematically I was presented with a 33% chance at first and now the host is offering me an opportunity to have a 50% chance.

>>50134353
what if I wanted to win the goat? Huh, enjoy your pathetic 1M dollars when in your worthless hyperinflating while I'm chilling with my goat

>>50134586
what if I prefer the goats?

>>50134403
>it's mathematically proven
that you are a gullible gorilla nigger

This has always been hilariously easy and it's always been hilarious to see anons come up with all sorts of answers other than 50% (some of them no doubt just shitposting but still).

"You already have a gold ball in your hand. What's the probability the next ball from the same box will be a gold ball?"

So there are 2 boxes.
Box A containing two Gold balls
Box B containing one Gold ball + one Silver ball

You picked from one of those two boxes.
You will pick again from that very same box.
So there's only 1 box you're picking from.
That box has a 50% chance of being Box A,
and a 50% chance of being Box B.

Hence the next ball you put your hand on, inside that same box, has a 50% chance of being a Silver one and a 50% chance of being a Gold one.

>but uh, it's more likely to be a Gold ball because you already got a Gold ball, so it's most likely the all-gold box...
No, it's not more likely, because you selected the box totally at random, and then selected the ball totally at random. There was nothing pushing you towards selecting the box you selected. You may just as easily have selected Box B as Box A -- or Box C, the all-silver box, for that matter (but since that wasn't the box you selected, that box isn't taking part anymore). And anyway, it's already established you have a gold ball in your hand. The question begins after you've taken that first ball. The question being "Is the next ball Gold?" And since there's a Gold ball in both boxes, it can be either of the two boxes you have your hand in; hence the next ball is either Silver or Gold. A 50% chance of either.

>>50134353
FUCKING PSEUDOINTELLECTUAL RETARDS IN THIS THREAD FALLING FOR THE CLASSIC JEWISH "I FUCKING LOVE MATHEMATICS MENTAL MATHEMATICAL GYMNASTICS" TRICK AS ANCIENT AS AYY LMAOS

Mental Challenge A:

is
> 7.777...
the same as
> 8
or is it the same as
> 7.8
or is it
> neither the same as 8 nor the same as 7.8
?

Mental Challenge B:

is
> 1.111...
the same as
> 2
or is it the same as
> 1.2
or is it
> neither the same as 2 nor the same as 1.2
?

___________________________________________
> (the "..." means the 7s and 1s repeat forever)

>>50136527
The goat/ball stuff isn't about mathematics though. It's just a logical challenge.

>>50136577
8 and 1.2

>>50136577