/biz/ - Business & Finance

Pivot from what? Have you seen the feds balance sheet? It keep growing, QE is literally still happening.

mumu gets the rope

>>50118701
while raising rates he's trying to make a soft landing lmao. it's not gonna work

>>50118721
His latest language has updated to basically acknowledge that a soft landing is unlikely and that he doesn't really care if he has to crash the plane to get his job done at this point. The real problem is that he's a cutie-patoot and very softspoken, so people keep not taking him seriously and interpreting what he says as dovish or wishy-washy even though the words themselves are consistently, resolutely hawkish.

Inflation is cancelled bobo, you'll see it in the next CPI report. Try again next year.

>>50118816
Absolutely based. I wonder if the cia trained him in in psychological manipulation

>>50118816
The US will unironically default if he actually tried to fight inflation.

>>50118960
These retards don't understand how fucked the USD is one way or another. Let them fantasize about "killing inflation dead", they might be right for a few months and you should hold some cash in case they get their wish.

>>50118960
Why is that so bad? Russia defaulted, and they're still fighting their little war. That and their country is entirely cut off from the world. I think the u.s would do much better

>>50119019
Russia has a currency effectively backed by commodities, the ruble wasn't the global reserve currency.

>>50118997
Based
>>50119019
Kek because pension funds, uni endowments, sovereign nations, and households all hold US debt with the idea that it’s risk free. Hell certain institutions and banks are required by law to have a certain % of assets in treasuries. So just saying “sorry we ain’t got it” will really fuck everything up. Every financial text book would need to be rewritten as the fed funds rate is unironically referred to as the “risk free rate”

>>50119049
It's risk free because the US government can, does, and will print more dollars to cover its debt.

>>50118960
>The US will unironically default if he actually tried to fight inflation.
If the Fed keeps raising rates it will cause cascading defaults all over the world. It would guarantee Great Depression Part II and then we'd be forced to print a ridiculous amount of money to rescue the entire world. This would create a real wave of inflation, way more serious then we have now.

>>50118682

Fed follows the bond market, not vice versa. And the bond market is cutting rate expectations.

>>50118701
They haven't even begun to sell off their assets. It's literally over when they finally pull the drain plug.

>>50119086
Defaults are deflationary idiot

>>50119075
Yeah but those dollars would be worthless if the only way to fund the liabilities is solely printing. At least at near 0 the interest expense was reasonable.
>>50119086
Yes
>>50119134
They default and since they’re too big to fail the gubbmint rescues them with injections or stimulus causing even more inflation and volatility.

>>50118960
And so will 2/3rds of the world. This is what happens when you encourage usury as a base model for your economy.

>>50118682
>babby's first recession
OH NOEZ EVERYTHING IS OVER
I hate poltards so much

>>50118682
>I trust the FED !
>the FED will make the US treasury default on its debt to protect the US dollar !!!
you are platinum stupid
also, QE never stopped, they added more MBS to their balance sheet in June

>>50118682
If any of this were true, we'd already be at a prime rate of 10%+ and he'd have already sold off all of the mbs and other shit he was holding from when they did QE. You have to be 18 to post here.

saved for posterity

>>50119216
>>50118960
>default
Look, it's obvious the fed will raise rates again someday, but there's no reason they'll do it before they nuke inflation back to 2%. To do it earlier than that is for them to lose all credibility, at which point they lose their most important weapon, which is shaping market expectations via signaling.

>>50118926
raising rates feeds into CPI via increased mortgage costs, rent costs are lagging

>>50118682
most people have resigned to the fate of our bear market until 2024 or so. you must only be reading the eternally euphoric mumus to confirm your doomsday predictions

>>50119086
which is all part of the play.
> oh you need USD swap lines? well sure we can help
> we just need you to do these three things that will fuck over China
> or you could default, it's *entirely* up to you

>>50118701
>>50119121
Old info, it’s already down $1T from the peak.

>>50119275
How would they nuke inflation without raising rates? Maybe you meant lower rates.. and in that case, they can’t get inflation down to 2% without causing cascading defaults

>>50119290
Wrong, retarded, and arrogant.

>POWELL WILL PIVOT BECAUSE HE JUST HAS TO, OKAY?
>MY -RANDOM TECH GARBAGE/SHITCOINS- ARE WORTH MORE THAN THE MARKET IS VALUING THEM AT
>EVERYTHING IS OVERSOLD
>WHO CARES ABOUT DOLLARS WHEN YOU HAVE THE MARKET
>AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

>>50119283
>you must only be reading the eternally euphoric mumus to confirm your doomsday predictions
No it's consistent over many platforms and forums over the last couple weeks, and market responses to powell's speeches and decisions confirms it's the majority take. Everyone things he's jawboning and don't mean what he says, nobody takes him seriously about tightening after being canonized as the money printer guy for all of '20-'21. He's cute as a button and nobody thinks a soft-spoken leprechaun could really be the harbinger of economic doom. I wouldn't be surprised if he starts wearing a freddy kreuger mask to press events to get his message across better, because I'm pretty sure he's massively pissed that he keeps saying [x] and people keep thinking he means [opposite of x] simply because [x] is scary and he's not.

>>50119019
How am I able to jerk off to Russian camwhores if they're entirely cut off from the world?

>>50119358
Powell will pivot because Canadian boomers need the money for their retirement!

>>50118701
>t. Another retard who doesn't understand it takes months for some of these purchases to settle
Holy shit even redditors on the fucking rebubble sub understand this

>>50119368
the interpretation of the last house questions with Powell was nuts. Many said he's preparing to reverse back to QE. That wasn't what I heard at all.

>>50119309
yes my bad, I meant lower rates.

>they can’t get inflation down to 2% without causing cascading defaults
maybe, and if so, then all bets are off. But the heart of the argument remains the same, which is that there's no reason to expect powell to randomly pivot on a dime in the near future, unless inflation gets under control or if something very critical in the economy breaks. Would rates at 3-4% break something? Maybe, but not right away.

>>50119414
>implying 3-4% is enough to fight inflation
We need rates to be ahead of inflation. 8-9-10%. But that’s not happening. Every time Powell lays out the plan it’s always contingent on us having a strong economy but we are already in a recession, it just isn’t official bc q2 gdp isn’t out

>>50119451
Lmao no we fucking dont where is this shit coming from? Rates have never been in front of inflation like fucking ever. Why are you acting like this is a binary situation? The fed wants to get inflation down enough so their ant farm doesn't crack open but the long term (meaning decades) outcome is still inflation like it has been since 1917

>>50119502
Because it’s what we needed to do in the 70s-80s of stop a decade of inflation

Powell will obviously keep raising rates but eventually things will start breaking. Eventually the printers will need to get fired up again. There’s no escaping it

>>50118816

He literally said a "soft landing" is achievable and what they are aiming for. The opposite of what you said is true.

>>50118682
Watch this...

Define inflation, dumbass.

>>50119545
inflation is the expansion of the money supply

Looking for signs of some kind of "pivot" is a red herring. The real point is not that Powell is going to change course - it's that he lacks the power or conviction to meaningfully pursue that course anyway. The Fed is not going to make any large moves to effect the status quo. They're going to carry on saying reassuring things and making tepid little tweaks, and the broader trends of the market will continue to spiral further and further out of their control.

>>50119379
havent listened to that album in almost 20 years. jesus

>>50119409
They’re replenishing the balance sheet with new assets when the old ones expire. These securities expire every month.

>>50119542
he has to kill the "fed put" concept.
for that he has to induce a deep correction that he doesn't immediately step back into
that will involve huge losses for many

>>50119558
And how does the "Federal" "Reserve" along with the Federal Government reduce the need for monetary expansion? They pay off the debt. The government said not to long ago tax receipts are at all time highs(!) which begs the question of what happens when Jerome convinces the market a recession is inevitable and tax receipts turn lower...

>>50118682
yuh

>>50118682
The Fed knows it can't solve supply side inflation, their rate hikes are doing fuck all but bringing us into a painful recession for fuck all. Bobos stop being baggots and sell your inverse positions and puts already. Bobo falls further into GME tier copes on why the market has to go down more each day.

>>50119190
>he thinks he's special because he's lived through exactly 1 recession that we only got out of via irresponsible monetary police that we're directly paying for today

>>50118816
He is targeting like 3% interest rates, which he interprets as neutral. That is very dovish when inflation is 8% (actually 15%+).

>>50119537
This
The only other option to tackle inflation is a decades long depression that sees a consistent 25%+ unemployment and a total decimation of make-work labor

>>50119894
this is retarded. 25% unemployment ? yeah that would indeed stop inflation!
not sure it needs to go that high.

>>50119918
That's how we got out of the great depression
History repeats itself in 100 year cycles

Reminder that Vockler hiked above inflation in an bygone time when we had 25 percent debt to gdp , not happening with 125+ percent debt to gdp.

>>50118816
>cutie-patoot
lol are you a 68 year old woman from east georgia

>>50118682
>Daddy Powell is going to violently anally devastate every last economic indicator you hold dear until inflation is under control
Lmao destroying real economic activity to control the inflation created by printing money. It'll never work: reducing productive capacity guarantees the next expansion cycle will be inflationary

Powell is a retard who created stagflation

>>50119409
>some
not all

>>50119975
Bobo euphoria is exactly like mumu euphoria after feds sold their bags, "Its nothing, they literally can't ever stop printing money, the bull run will go on forever" but its "This is nothing, they have to keep crashing the market to solve inflation, the bear market will go on forever"

>>50119944
Japan's debt is over 200%
The important factor is who owns most of your debt
If a big part of the debt is owned by the tax payers then 125% isn't that much.

Also for gods sake the interest rates are under 3% still

We had times when we had over 4 or even 5%

Just no one of you cared
Now we have so many shitty business that go bankrupt with only 2%

Its time to flush such business out from the market so the economy can stabilize again.

Once things go back to normal they gonna lower it again.

You guys really don't understand that the biggest fear in the market isn't a recession but inflation

>>50119689
pretty much

just like they decided not to save Lehman to teach the whole financial system a lesson

this time the 'line must go up, fed will carry us' crowd must be taken behind the barn and shot for everyone to have an adequate understanding of risk

>>50120088
>Once things go back to normal
lol what does "normal" look like to you in this environment?

>>50120088
>all we have to do is destroy the last few remaining small businesses and everything will work itself out
Holy shit you guys I hate reddit so much

>>50118682
ok i'd like your take on the possibility that the taxpayers in this country revolt in some way (OWS or worse) when many of them lose their jobs, we still have soaring inflation, grocery stores shelves are half-bare, and all the fed gov is doing is continuing to cater to middle school trannies. if they crash the economy too hard, after everything they've done the past few years, the average man may have enough. its a possibility

>>50120088
its the reaction to inflation you retard

>>50120072
>he thinks these things aren't a direct consequence of the other

>>50119275
>>50119358
hey bear LARPers
remember your favorite chart?

>>50119275
>lose all credibility
like what happened in 2018?

>>50120142
Once we lower inflation
The bad businesses go bankrupt
People lose jobs ( unemployment rate above 5%)
War in Ukraine stops

This is the bottom

After this things gonna start slowly go up again in a year or three back to the same levels and interest rates are gonna get lowered again.

Similar to how things went in 2008
I mean the 2008 crash looked 10 times worse then it is now and people still recovered.

For God's sake the current unemployment rate is 3.6%

The 2008 crash had 10% and millions of homeless people setting up tents

The great depression had a unbelievable 25% unemployment rate.

And you guys start crying that the country gonna default on 2% interest rate.

If you honestly believe that the government gonna step in to save business that go bankrupt with 2% and let inflation go more up.
You are delusional.

People warned others about how the unemployment rate is too low in the USA and how its gonna cause trouble if nothing happens.

>>50120199
what? I'm saying that we're at peak bobo delusion which is an indicator of a coming shift in markets just like when peak mumu delusion happened right before the market began tanking.

>>50120323
yeah and I'm saying you're retarded if you think the market is going to recover in any conceivable way without an act of god so significant there hasn't even been speculation of its scale

>>50120275
no offense anon but you sound like someone who watches CNN and believes every word they're saying

>>50120344
peak bobo delusion, please go back to r/wsb and tell everyone about how your TA shows 2008 part 2 is on friday.

>>50120378
>on friday.
July 27th
Cap this

>>50120386
I'm not wasting my time screencapping another retarded prediction, only burry gets the screencaps because he won't stop deleting his fucking tweets

>>50120323
I too determine my expectations for the market off of hyperbolic emotional virginal men on a Ethiopian coffee roaster forum

>>50120409
Fair enough, but I hope to see you here when the fireworks are going off
Should be fun times

>>50120426
When stupid people lean heavily to one side its a good indicator that side is wrong, too many retards have been saying that inflation is purely from money printing and has nothing to do with supply side, that oil would be 30 dollars a barrel if we just got inflation under control, ignoring every single other factor as if it were irrelevant.
>>50120434
Of course I'll be on /biz/ on a trading day if I'm here on a weekend.

>>50118701
This
Why would he pivot if nothing changed in the first place?

>>50120347
I am not even American
I am just a boomer that went through the 2008 crash

Also I was on /biz/ before the 2018 crash

>>50118960
>>50119086
>>50119019
The US wont default. Debt is nowhere near unserviceable. Its like 1/8th of yearly tax revenue. So even issuing it at new interest rates isnt a big deal. They can just let it run off to maturity.

>>50120275
> I've got a great business idea but I can only do it if interest rates are below 1%
who cares if every single one of these businesses go to the wall?

>>50120781
correct

>>50118682
>very reliably what he intends to do to accomplish that goal, which is fight inflation until it's dead
Not possible without killing it at the source. We're on the cusp of a long-term multi decade commodity shortage. The fed can't print commodities. The only way to kill it is to kill humans. Billions of them.

>>50120275
>For God's sake the current unemployment rate is 3.6%
imagine actually believing that it isn't already well above 5%

>>50118682
I can't wait. The old system needs to die. Most of us here were born into this shit because our parents were fed lead and played with mercury so they were all very retarded and were easily manipulated. There is no fairness in the current system. They print trillions just to give to the banks so some Jews can continue to buy up everything leaving us with the scraps. Fuck them all and their NPC drones. Burn it down.

>>50120275
>the current unemployment rate is 3.6%
no, the fake unemployment rate is 3.6
they literally changed the measurement criteria to not include people
>not looking for a job
>part-time workers
your unemployment rate is closer to 30%

>>50120921
Its not 5%
Once you see people protesting on the street that they don't have a job
We are doing good.
>>50120993
Its not that simple
They give them money so they can give loans and reinvest back into the economy.

The problem starts when the banks take the money but keep it for themselves as a backup line.

The money is supposed to be used for new businesses to create new jobs for the people that lost jobs because of the failed businesses that the recession eats away.

Did anyone see the market evaluation of Zoom?
Yeah I mean such type of businesses.

>>50119379
there will never be a sanction on russian cunny exports

>>50118682
I like Powell
The economy will be such a shitshow by election time

Also I forgot one thing
Why inflation is such a bigger deal compared to a recession.

Check the current situation in turkey
What happens when a developed nation doesn't reduce its inflation and hank up its interest rates

Personally, I'm salivating at the thought of Powell going full Volcker and taking interest rates to 20% and beyond. High yielding corporate bonds are an absolute cakewalk compared to stocks, crypto, or just about any other asset.

>>50121044
Yeah it's all funny money used to prop up bloated businesses and institutions.

>>50118682
This. If wants to be remembered as Volcker 2: Electric Boogaloo he has no choice. Brainlets think he's not serious because he's trying to talk down the markets so he doesn't have to raise rates much. His back up plan is to just keep letting things roll off the balance sheet which will also have the same effect as QT at this point. If he plays it right he'll have popped the bubble just in time for Shemitah.

>>50121116
This. Bond market gets a reboot essentially for next 20-30 years. Im excited for bond shopping.

>>50121138
He's not serious because he's out there talking about how strong the economy is literally days before GDPnow makes negative prints. He has no credibility left

>>50121193
It's the ol' catch-22 Fren
>the economy is still really strong because it survived the last hike
>no I don't care what GDP says
>inflation is real high too
>poomp it
>Still alive huh?
>poomp it
>That negative GDP can be ignored look at the unemployment numbers
>poomp it

>>50121193
>He has no credibility left
The fed and yellen lost all trust when they kept rates flat in jan/feb despite everyone wanting at least a small one. Theyre still trying to catch that mistake.

>>50118682
Powell, he fight the inflation, MUURICA HECK YEAH!

>>50118682
You are missing the point. It doesn't matter what the fuck that retard sets interest rates at. The money printer will remain on forever. It's a matter of time before the dollar breaks and you don't want to be holding dollars when it does.

>>50119340
It will continue to rise. They are funding a war against Russia and a bunch of 3rd world countries military growth. They are also planning tax cuts for oil companies lel. Fucking money printer goes brrrr and the US kicks the can down the road for a few more years or they pull the rug with China and Russia getting uppity and a country that is the most divided since the great depression.

>>50118960
Gee, sounds like GREAT RESET. Schizos were right yet again?

>>50118682
I've been bearish for awhile but I constantly larp as a delusional permabull by posting that Powell will pivot soon. I've been doing it since before the first rate hike spamming "The Fed will NEVER hike rates". The funny thing is most of this board seems to believe those posts even if they are over the top permabull larping. He's clearly not going to destroy the dollar to temporarily pump shitty tech stocks and crypto, and the gains wouldn't even beat out inflation because we would be hyperinflating.

>>50118682
>powell raises rates
>economy is kill
>states default on their dentbs
>end of the western world and rise of BRICS
Powell cannot go full Volcker because the debt/GDP ratio is higher and the economy is more financialised than in the 80s. What you will see is a hilarious back and forth between raising rates/QT and cutting rates/QE.

>>50118682
>Powell is an appointed figure, he just got reappointed, he's beholden to noone except the mandate of the fed
A simple majority of congress can fire the entire fucking board. This is not some constitutional bullshit only supreme court jews can realistically mess with.

>>50122639
>states default on their dentbs
Most states have a huge surplus right now. Dont see that happening any time soon.
>debt/GDP
Meaningless measurement. Debt services are 1/8th of yearly tax revenue. Its fine for now.

>>50119019
>their country is entirely cut off from the world
That's the reason they can default and be okay. If the US defaults, China stops sending us plastic crap and semiconductors.

>>50122905
>Meaningless measurement.
And yet Japan is the only government in existance that survived 120% (for now)
>Debt services are 1/8th of yearly tax revenue.
So what happens if rates increase to 6% or 10%?

>>50123052
>So what happens if rates increase to 6% or 10%?
Nothing because its at a fixed interest rate. Although if we need to issue more debt to pay off the serviceable debt it could increase to higher amounts of tax revenue needed. But I think most of the current debt from covid is issued in shorter termed maturities so if so it will be paid off soon.

>>50122874
When's the last time a simple majority of congress did literally anything

>>50119699
>monetary expansion
Define Monetary Expansion.

>balance sheet
how do they get rid of a few trillions on their balance sheet? Why cant they just hit the market sell button?

>>50118960
explain to me how would the US, a country that has its own currency and is sovereign enough to control it totally, would default on any debt which happens to be issued under its own currency regardless of what the interest rate is?

>>50123908
The balance is owed by the US to the federal reserve corporation which is not a government entity.

>>50120781
Yeah at a real interest rate of 0% it’s 65% of tax revenue
See:>>50119049

>>50123908
Because the tax base isn’t enough to service the debt. There’s only two ways a govt generates revenue, they tax it or they print it. If they can’t keep up with debt payments through taxation then they just print to service the debt and it adds to the debt.

>>50123952
mere institutional smoke and mirrors shit.
>>50123968
the tax base is there, hundreds of thousands of the most profitable companies in the entire world into the trillions in profits that pay zero are proof of such

>>50118682
Right, anyone with a braincell knows this. Yet stocks still aren't crashing, just slowly crabbing downward. What's going on?

>>50123596
The stuff on their balance sheet is Mortgage Backed Securities, Government Bonds and Corporate Bonds. They bought them to keep the price of houses high, fund government deficits and keep stock prices high. The government wants to keep financial assets inflated, so why would they sell?

>>50121453
>fixing a mistake by making an even bigger one
imagine being so fucking stupid you rate hike into a recession as shown by your own data as you thought it wouldn't happen.

>>50119121
Retard. No active selling planned. Only letting bonds mature

>>50124727
bonds always mature, but they're buying more and also MBS's which they were dumping, fuck off with this retarded bobo cope

>>50124727
That worked great in 2019 amirite?

>>50124743
*were supposed to be dumping

>>50124743
>Pointing out the retard narrative of fed actively sells
>Be called bobo
Get your story straight faggot.

>>50124754
It wont have any effect and it doesn't need to. Nothing ever happens and when something happened, the majority didn't realize it, which is like nothing happened

>>50122905
>Most states have a huge surplus right now
talking out of your ass
a lot of US states are deep into debt
the federal government itself implodes under anything above 2%

>>50118960
The Federal Reserve and the United States of America will come to a deal. America will pay on a specific date. The FED will lower rates to 0% on that date and then raise it back up once the transaction goes through. This will give the American federal government more time while also locking out the private sector.
>>50119019
They defaulted on dollar denominated debt because the dollar was not accepted when coming from Russia. Nobody cares that they defaulted on loans that they were not allowed to pay off. They have worked to become a type of autarky in that they are less reliant on Western sanctions. Countries need resources. Russia has resources and has the competency to manage it. Sub-saharan Africa has the resources but lacks the competency.

>>50124830
>They have worked to become a type of autarky
They failed to do that in any meaningful way. Russia can't keep their own industries maintained and haven't been able to since they stopped being the Soviet Union.

>>50124860
They get the tech from the chinks who stole it from the west and build it in Bellorussia. Just a question of time. Rzssia has been preparing this move since 2015

>>50124713
or, imagine being so fucking stupid that you sit on your hands and let inflation rip to double digits because you were afraid of slightly exacerbating a recession by hiking rates a little. It's a fucked if you do fucked if you don't kind of situation but considering their literal mandate is to control inflation, they can at least pick the kind of fucked that can be defended after by "I was just doing my job"

>>50118682
This guys explains why you are wrong. https://youtu.be/KAT6V8_2fe4

>>50124830
>The FED will lower rates to 0% on that date and then raise it back up once the transaction goes through.
That's so crackpot I kind of want to see it happen. Even more outlandish than YCC and UBI and trillion dollar coin predictions.

>>50118682
I love this board.
Oh, I mean uh…based.

>>50124919
The russians don't know how to build it even with schematics. Same with the chinese actually

>>50125194
They have no other choice then to build it, while the western retards finance it buying oil and gas via proxys

>>50119368

You are full of shit. Equities are puking without signs if slowing and bonds have priced in way more rate hikes. People are taking him very seriously.

>>50125060
inflation is supply side, fed can't do shit.

>>50125273
They will fail, anon. Real life is not like a Civ playthrough, they can't just allocate beakers and suddenly burp out advanced microprocessors

>>50125348
It's not going to be 2nm chips, but 15nm isn't bad if that's all you got

>>50125077
Based. Powell will pivot like Tim Duncan in the low post now that recession is official. The Fed is all about timelines and narratives

>>50118682
>fight inflation
stopped reading

>>50125420
If they're blindly copying the design, they're copying in the same hardware-level backdoors that Intel chips come with anyway. And because it's China and Russia, the likelihood that they're blindly copying designs approaches 100%.

>>50125303
Yeah, PPP, stimmy checks, government borrowing from the Fed to finance everything did nothing to the M2 money supply… all that money sloshing around banks does nothing! Ignore the 41% of USD being printed in the last two years. It’s meaningless!

>>50125472
If they did none of that, we'd still have outperforming inflation since there's a war in Europe and China is no longer open for business. It's only a matter of time before people start taking potshots at shipping and then everything fucking implodes, anon.

>>50125453
We are going to see, I don't have internals on the Russian chip designs, only know what anybody informed knows, that they are going to build their own, just a question if their plans for Q2 2023 are realistic or if it takes a few months or years more, but its going to happen. Russia doesn't necessarily need the west, neo colonial globalism failed, again

>>50125499
The whole house of cards is failing. Russia not needing the west is a good start, but don't make it out like it's not gonna be a huge suck sandwich for the planet. Especially because Russia has problems of their own internal design.

>>50125604
Not to worried for Americans and the Brics, bit of Cold War multipolarity is good for business and competition, the only ones who really fucked themselves are the Euros because they sucked too hard on Washingtons dick, at the end of the day nothing ever happens

>>50125293
Equities keep puking in batches every time he follows through with what he says he'll do. If people really believed him from the start then SPY would already have hit these levels back in february. The market is in a constant state of disbelief that he actually means business and it keeps processing it in these jittery-ass dumps and relief rallies.

>>50125649
Europe deserves to continually get ass-blasted for what they did to everyone else desu. It's a small measure of turnabout in an otherwise amoral universe

>>50118701
Wrong, it's been quantitatively tightening since mid 2021 if you include reverse repos.

>>50118682
>until inflation is dead
Haha, good fucking luck.

>>50125668
>muh colonialism is so heckin baderino
Afrika was better under our control, old locals agree.
We need to send more whites down and create segregated communities in Afrika instead of bringing niggers to Europe.

>>50120176
a business, small or otherwise, that fails when rates go over 2% is a scam, not a business

>>50120215
zoom out
the 10yr recently broke its 40-year bull trend

>>50121974
>He's clearly not going to destroy the dollar to temporarily pump shitty tech stocks and crypto
as soon as tech and crypto drop far enough to threaten the solvency of goldman sachs, he absolutely will

>>50123596
>how do they get rid of a few trillions on their balance sheet? Why cant they just hit the market sell button?
they're letting the bonds mature and not buying new ones to replace them
this prevents a sudden crash in us government bonds

>>50127255
>>50127233
>>50127194
>>50127179
>>50126912
Tired of being broke? Now you have no excuses

https://anarchyrsps.live

Ok so everyone's divided over whether its the BTCbottom, and desu it probably doesn't matter if you buy now or wait as we will probably see a new ath in the future, however long that may be. The real question, is now the time to be accumulating alts or will they continue to bleed over the next few months?

>>50126912
I don't give a shit about what they did to Africa, its what they did to each other and then their failure pulled everyone else into like 40 years of psychopathy.

>>50126912
Katanga was a mistake.

>>50119451
idiot...

There will be no pivot until something major breaks, I keep telling bullcels this and they keep telling themselves that Powell is secretly communicating that he’s pivoting soon (like literal schizophrenics).

Nothing has broken yet. Yes, we are in a recession, but if nobody is losing their jobs then the second part of the fed’s dual mandate is not a concern, he will continue hiking rates to fulfill mandate 1 which is price stability. You’ve been on borrowed time since 2008 because there is no free lunch. The fact that there is a multi trillion dollar market filled with financial and software products THAT NOBODY USES will be such an obvious, forehead slapping fact in the next five years when you look back in hindsight and wonder why the hell you thought “cryptocurrency” was destined to go up forever (how are those “look into Bitcoin” charts looking now?). It’s an epiphenomenon of monetary policy, it’s dollars chasing returns, even in “products” that don’t even do anything.

>>50127615
How can I trust the rest of your analysis when you don’t even understand where crypto /supposedly/ gets its value.

>>50127615
The rate of inflation increase has been dropping off, maybe this month or next month we'll have seen it's peaked. Then rates increases will stop. Yes we're in a recession obviously which probably isn't entirely priced in but still a pivot is coming soon.

>>50127666
Yes, it’s a decentralized alternative to the existing financial system blah blah blah blah. Or maybe it’s a store of value, or maybe it’s an inflation hedge, or maybe it’s blockchain technology in general and Bitcoin actually sucks, or maybe it’s one of the other 50 supposed reasons it has trillions of dollars of “value”.

Here’s the reality: it’s highly correlated to existing financial markets so it doesn’t even serve as an alternative asset class in the event that traditional assets were declining and you were looking to produce returns. Nobody ever uses any of the crypto products for anything, except acquiring or trading tokens which themselves do…nothing. The most user friendly and cheap “products” are highly centralized. The people with the most power and authority within the crypto space all actively want regulation which will completely kill the entire point of crypto (what’s the point of crypto exactly if the government can control or penalize you if you interact with certain wallets?).

All of it is a smokescreen, all of it. This isn’t rambling from someone who found out about crypto last year on Twitter, I’ve been involved for over half a decade, NOTHING HERE is genuine, nobody is doing anything but making and breaking promises to generate hype and encourage speculators to pour in. Every few years it gets a new coat of paint but it’s the same bullshit. Ethereum has never produced anything worthwhile and 99.999% of tokens it has spawned have been Ponzi schemes.

>>50127711
No pivot until we have price stability, the rate of increase may slow, but rate cuts are not coming until price stability has been restored. There were several fakeout inflation peaks in the 70s, I don’t expect it to be so simple this time around that we’ll all know when inflation is gone when it goes down slightly.

>>50127768
This is true. Crypto amazingly still has zero actual industry use a decade in. The defi TVL has evaporated in this downturn which tells you it was totally unnecessary fugazzi. I think blockchain tech is something that offers use to a lot of things but it is really about time we see that actually be shown.

>>50127794
I don't mean they'll lower rates first positive report but i do think we're seeing 'a peak' which will lead to stable rates and yes if that holds or improves then decreases.

>>50118682
>he tells the truth and says what he's going to do!!!!
>inflation is transitory!
bs
>i wont pivot!
bs
fuck off naive boomer cunt

>>50118960
>The US will default
I'm sick and tired of hearing this shit from people that do not understand how the currency works or is managed. There is no reality, no matter how high interest rates get or how much quantitative tapering is done, in which the US defaults on its debt. To do so would require every other currency on earth that matters to default as well, as they own shitloads of our bonds and debt, which is only payable in USD per the terms of the purchase contract. Going full nuclear retard bear market isn't even a necessity anymore, it is an imperative, and without it this would have all swelled to such heights it actually would've been the end of the world and the guaranteed beginning of WWIII. Seethe about it, cope about it, it doesn't matter how many fucking times you say it, it will not happen as it would require every other currency that depends on owning our debts to default first. China is not going to fucking default. Russia is (probably) not going to (actually) default, and no, I do not count being sanctioned so hard they're not allowed to repay debts as being in a true default. Japan is not going to default. Australia is not going to default. England is not going to default. I know you're assblasted you lost the currency and thus economic war, but tough shit, tongue my anus. Rates will be at 4-5% by EoY and will keep climbing from there if necessary. The alternative is going back to the fucking 1400's in terms of currency stability worldwide. Instead we're just going back to the all-time trendline and wiping out a generation or two of gains. Like always fucking happens with fiat currencies on a long enough timeframe.

Crack a fucking book, remove head from anus before cracking aforementioned book, and cope about it. Line do go fucking down. Permabulls will get their own ropes.

>>50119216
>They added more
IT FUCKING MATURED JESUS TITTY-FUCKING CHRIST ON HIS THRONE IN HEAVEN HOW DOES THE BUSINESS BOARD NOT FUCKING KNOW HOW BONDS WORK, HOW IS A 19 BILLION INCREASE ON A MULTI-TRILLION DOLLAR BALANCE SHEET """"""INCREASING QE""""""" I SWEAR ON EVERYTHING HOLY IF I HAD THE POWER I WOULD COME THROUGH THE INTERNET AND HEEM ANYONE TO DEATH THAT SPREAD SUCH IGNORANCE UNFATHOMABLE.

>>50118682
>he's beholden to noone except the mandate of the fed,
oy vey, this rabbi thinks we're retarded

all of this bobo screeching and no mention of the repo facilities
before jpow even started his rates hiking and imaginary QT he already put in place repo facilities that pay out freshly printed money to both foreign and domestic GSIB's
and it pays more the higher the rates go, right now they are at 250 mil usd per month in repo prints
now look at the feds balance sheet thats basicly flat
there is no QT, there never was and never will be

>>50128030
the euro will default tho and thats a pretty big chunk of the global economy
back in the 2012 euro crisis both germany and the netherlands has emergency plans to reintroduce national currencies, dont doubt for a second those plans are even more advanced today

>>50128122
Ight, fair, the euro is fucked, but it'll just get bailed out by Uncle Sam and probably Uncle Xi to an extent too. Everything else I said is ironclad 1,000,000,000% correct. I weep for humanity and the earth as a whole that so many people are so fucking stupid. The only, and I mean the ONLY scenario in which the US defaults is aliens coming down and cracking the fucking planet and even fucking then it'd be a fight to the death like a cornered cougar in an alley. Jesus fucking WEPT motherfuckers are retarded.

>>50120072
They're literally the same people.

>>50121017
What kind of new made up lie fuckery is this? That has always been the definition of unemployment. Low wages and people not choosing to work is not unemployment

>>50128202
nobody with a brain will think that
the problem is just that the simple equation of high debt loads, hiked rates and QT doesn't add up
the simple solution is just QT is a lie in reality its shadow QE under another name, rather than the insane default
we don't know the details about the fed yet, but again look to europe, 1 week after announcing not even doing anything, lagarde already had to make a completely illegal med bond buying programma
they jawbone how this will end up being net QT, but i don't buy it for a moment the printers never stopped they have just hidden it

>>50128290
Goddamn dude I thought I was talking to someone that didn't have their head firmly lodged up their anus. This board NEEDS a good 5-10 year bear market to clear out the retards. Printer fucking stopped compared to what it was doing previously, and I weep for everyone that gets caught on the wrong side of history when it ACTUALLY stops completely and starts reversing. If I didn't have any semblance of ethics and morals I would grift retards so fucking hard I'd have a team of big tiddied goth bitches carrying me around in orb weaver silk blankets. Deflation is fucking coming. Ignore at your own peril. Lines do go down.

>>50128363
printer never stopped in europe and never will as long as the euro exists
we will see how this shakes out, but there will not be a 10 year bear market thats plain bobo euphoria

>>50128384
>there will not be a 10 year bear market
no.. it'll be 50

>>50118682
>You dumb twats really don't get it. Powell is an appointed figure, he just got reappointed, he's beholden to noone except the mandate of the fed, he wants to be remembered as not the worst fed chairman who ever lived, and he's spent the last 6 months signaling very reliably what he intends to do to accomplish that goal, which is fight inflation until it's dead.

Nah, he's just kicking the can down the road until he retires, that's what they all do.

>>50118682
>he's spent the last 6 months signaling very reliably what he intends to do to accomplish that goal, which is fight inflation until it's dead
lmao

>>50118682
>pow not piv
Either way we are fucked, either inflation makes the money worthless or we get a long overdue crash that will last years.

>>50128458
>50
moron

>>50127825
kek, some defi are ponzi so newfags are getting rekt with those platforms.

>>50121193
Panic exacerbates things really quickly. It has been obvious since last year that the words coming out of his mouth is mostly to try to calm the masses so that they don’t panic and make a bad situation worse

>>50129050
that's why you always DYOR anon and I'm not seeing any sustainable defi protocols yet.

>>50129501
kek, nice words of wisdom from a pajeet.

>>50129733
ey newfag, You ain't seeing Equilibrium yet? it will fucking change your life. You can do a lot of things with it, like fucking earn, borrow, lend or trade.

>>50128030
So if an outcome is sufficiently bad enough then it can't happen?

>>50127666
Crypto is a massive waste of time

>>50127615
well put, I agree, they've realized that printing through land is cancer

>>50128043
>JESUS TITTY-FUCKING CHRIST ON HIS THRONE IN HEAVEN
not heard that combo before, thx!

>>50128202
>I weep for humanity and the earth as a whole that so many people are so fucking stupid.
don't weep for humanity, the dullards you are replying to are all Americans

>>50128363
>This board NEEDS a good 5-10 year bear market to clear out the retards. Printer fucking stopped compared to what it was doing previously,
So right. Almost everyone on /biz/ is like a tape recorder.
> Oh they did this before so they'll do it again
> housing only ever went up so it will go up again
> everyone relies on the stock market so it has to go up

>>50128458
this is just as dumb as people who say nobody will be able to afford a home, ever.
don't you think they'd fucking "change it up" on year 30?

>>50131087
>>50131097
>>50131109
>>50131115
>>50131123
>>50131131
take your meds, NOW

>>50128030
Why do Americans think they are so important to the global markets? All they do is consume.

>>50131710
We have the world's most powerful military and an economy that even with all the jewish sorcery is legit more stable than anything europoor or a shitty alt-country can put up

Unless Europe turns back the clock to 1913 politics and white nationalism, or some white capitalist ethnostate emerges, the USA is the best game in town, fr no cap

>>50131936
Best game in town?
You do know money and military doesn't matter for your standard of living. It is what goods and services your country can produce efficiently. The US is at the bottom thanks to your politicians abusing the privilege of being the reserve currency.

>>50124789
>if a tree falls in the forest and only some people are there to see it, then there are still the same number of trees in the forest
I understand current economic theory is entirely based on public reaction, but we still live in the physical world and are committing suicide thinking it doesn't effect us because nobody noticed

>>50131710
because entitlement. america is only a service economy. we produce jack shit but swag for influencers

>>50127179
It's been a slow boil to get to this point, but it's actually impossible to compete with megacorps subsidized by the government without razor thin margins

>>50131983
>It is what goods and services your country can produce efficiently. The US is at the bottom thanks to your politicians abusing the privilege of being the reserve currency
I guarantee the average white American has a standard of living higher than anything but a Scandinavian welfare baby

spics and spooks mess up our stats

>>50119410
>powell says he's looking for 3.5% by the beginning of 2023
>/biz/ says 2.5% is the max, then we go back down and moon

>>50132062
>I guarantee the average white American has a standard of living higher than anything but a Scandinavian welfare baby
Today because they are the reserve currency. Last year they had a net import of $1 trillion in goods. When they lose their reserve status that will go to $0 and the US will need to pay it's debt to the surplus nations they've been importing from (China and Japan mostly).
This will increase consumer prices significantly and America would have to underconsume for decades.

>>50132031
Or because America is the largest economy in real terms (china's real estate ponzi is a meme and not real gdp) and half the world's factories outside america are owned by american companies so when america goes belly up so does 90% of the world economy outside of places like north korea.

>>50132078
biz said BTC wouldn't tank

>>50118701
>MBS have decreased by $20bn on the fed's balance sheet since last week.

The balance sheet is reducing, money is leaving the economy, we're going into a recession.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/20220630/

>>50132616
we are going into "price discovery"
that's a good thing

>>50118816
You would be right if not for the fact that the US has gov agencies so massively in debt that each .1% interest rate increase means a hundred million dollars in interest payments.

I guess it depends on if the gov can wriggle their way out of their financial obligations and leave the people holding the bag.

>>50119368
>>50119410
i don't follow the news. I listened to him answering the house questions and he seemed clear:
> bring inflation back down to 2% while keeping unemployment low by whatever means necessary
> the us debt is unsustainable but it is not alarming (yet)

signals to me clearly he's going to keep raising rates until inflation is under control, and then deal with the national debt (I have no idea how he'll do this)

>>50132684
> don't follow the news
me neither, I listened to it live.
I drew the same conclusion. I mean, he could be lying or weak, so the resolve remains to be seen, but the intent is clear.

>>50132684
>bring inflation back down to 2% while keeping unemployment low by whatever means necessary
Those are mutually exclusive
The only thing he cares about is getting inflation to 2%
He just had to add the last part because it would be political suicide to say that unemployment will go to 10%+ (20%+ real unemployment)

>>50127194
>broke
there is no stopping the 30Y bond price
it can stall for a year or two
eventually makes new highs because there is no yield

>>50128043
>HOW IS A 19 BILLION INCREASE ON A MULTI-TRILLION DOLLAR BALANCE SHEET """"""INCREASING QE"""""""
because it is
show us where the QT is exacly
they can't do it because it would implode the treasury ponzi scheme
retarded nigger learn to count

>>50128280
>That has always been the definition of unemployment
hello zoom zoom
it wasn't until recently
as it is tradition, government changes how standards and ratings work to cook their own books
inflation changed its formula from prior
unemployment changed its formula from prior
why fight for a better measurement when you can just change how the measure is done and make it seem like you did something

congratulations, now you know

He's not pivoting but that's okay this is prime accumulation range. I'm doing 10 percent of my check a month right now and starting probably after the next rate hike I will up it to 15% followed by 20%. I'm still sitting on 50k of cash as well that I am using to buy some crypto every few weeks and once we hit real capitulation I'm gonna take it and start to really make big purchases. Arguably I need to cut my expenses so I can invest more but I'm still trying to figure out if it's worth me taking a sack from my job over WFH or to just tough it out until eoy

>>50133846
The more important thing is; what are you buying?

>>50135916
Crypto: I'm holding what I have in fantom plus some other projects. What I'm buying: 50% BTC/ETH/LINK
Other 50%: a list of smart contract platforms since my bet is that the future is multichain.

Stocks:
Mainly oil and commodities but I'm dcaing like 80 percent into VTI, all boomer strats