/biz/ - Business & Finance

What do you guys think about Graham Stephen's view that the car market will crash?

I've been thinking that these trucks that cost a lost will start going for scrap as Americans can't afford to fuel them up.

https://twitter.com/GrahamStephan/status/1542860348742836225?t=M21WQsICxbEWVqsbr1cMMg&s=19

>>50112968
Vid about the bubble.
https://youtu.be/qgodnoaL_p0

I'm buying a used "dream" cars from these Boomers who can no longer afford it.

If you look at the historical correlations between bond yields and gold price then gold has not moved yet as a response to changes in the bond market. If you use prior periods as an indication gold should be trading at about $ 1400

Maybe inflation, sanctions, instability really mean that this time it is different. But maybe it will fall in line in the way it has always happened.

good day everyone

https://www.mining.com/web/chile-plans-to-raise-copper-mining-royalties-and-reform-tax-system/

I assume the up to 32% tax is on top of the current tax that is what 35? And then they added a few percent tax on revenue as well for good measure. Are they coming for gold next?

>>50112968

It'll pop for sure as we start seeing more and more loan defaults, but on the other hand they're a real tangible thing which resists inflation so the car market might have more legs than people anticipate.
Also one thing to take into account is all the government forbearance programs that push this kind of market forwards.
During the last couple of years the government has been preventing the collapse of that market with all of their debt fuckery programs.
Then there's the fact that a lot of the lower end of the market has been played out. People with worst credit scores haven't been defaulting because there's simply less of these people in the market.
I think the car market will inevitably pop only when we're in a situation where the housing starts collapsing and that might be a little while away.

>>50106020
Based non-degenerate Andy tugging it to Beautiful/Procreation without shame

So if the SCOTUS EPA ruling means companies dont have their hands tied, it means oil production should ramp up. I think someone said this should take 6-12 months?
I saw last thread that the US wants cheap oil to attack the EU and OPEC countries' profitability. So shouldnt that create a bidding war to the lowest dollar?
In other words, I could play earnings on producers in the 2-5 months from inflated prices, and then exit... but cheap oil benefits the American public so I dont believe theyd do that

>>50112968
I think too many broke niggas financed their Kias with variable APR and they about to get BTFO

What are your opinions on the current price movement of BHP - RIO? They're both hovering just above my average buy price and I'm looking to go in again.
Thanks.

Okay, so what are still safe bets left? ENCUF I feel is the best, but what else? Junior miners are screwed right?

>>50113010
>>50112968
Interesting, how do I profit? Is there a shorting the car market option?

>>50112946
morning all how are things?
https://www.mining.com/web/chile-plans-to-raise-copper-mining-royalties-and-reform-tax-system/

>>50113819
Chile doing this sucks for miners and the country because all the investment will flee, mines will close and people will be out of work. The government is shooting its self in the foot as usual.

Be kind, I'm a retard. Does this chart imply a face melting rally in commodities? Wouldn't that be bad?

>>50116857
>morning all how are things?
better than fucking Chile lmao

>>50116857
also good morning

bullish ?

Have something like 3k in cash right now as drypowder, might start buying...

>>50116877
Yeah and with Lula probably getting elected this year in Brazil that country might very well turn to shit as well, leaving 0 investable Latin American countries. What a shit show that continent is, just hopeless.

>>50118663
Saw VALE doing big divvies. Is Brazil fucked too?
Why not short stuff that is based on South America qnd has ADRs for US?

>>50116879
Or a massive decline in the sp

Could we possibly go lower when we open back up on tuesday or should l pull the trigger on this now?

>>50116879
Whats GSCI? Gold/silver comp index?
Look at 2008 and 2020. Known market crashes and a big spike. This implies a flight to safety (gold). Look at the price of gold/silver during these times. Gold inflates and silver doesnt move as much or even declines (industrials).
Ergo, equity outflows, metal inflows.

We've had bond yields invert, 2 quarters of shit GDP, and massive inflation. "Everyone" priced in a recession yet gold has not moved yet. If there is a crash, we're not there yet. We'll keep bleeding until Sept at the earliest. A crash will probably occur if the mint ratio stays above 100 for too long.

>>50119224
>paying a numismatic premium instead of just buying high grade raw metal

>>50119273
Yes l could buy a bar instead of a coin but it won't be tax exempt when you go to sell it in most cucked states.

>>50119078
The risk with Vale I think is government meddling. They already fired the CEO I believe and they either talk about or already have price controls on gas and the gov also owns a large part of Vale iirc. Lula is a leftist so if he wins then yeah it won't look great. Too risky shorting this stuff considering limited upside. Far from certain the companies shit the bed, I'm just staying away for now.

Fuck I did a whole lot of drinking and cocaine last night and I have a pounding headache but they want me to go out again tonight. I think one day is enough

>>50119251
A general commodity index but its weighted very heavily in favour of Oil

>>50112968
The next 12 months is going to be all about demand destruction

What's going on with trillion? Lots of people are freaking out on ceo.ca. Is this nerd ceo art going to tank this company bc of his lack of business sense, or are people just panicking bc their shares haven't mooned yet?

PPs don't surprise me too much in this environment. It's probably better to have extra money to stock up on what you need now instead of having your company wrecked in the future once supply chain issues are prevalent. That being said it does seem like echelon is taking advantage of trillion here.

https://www.caesarsreport.com/reports/report-southern-silver-exploration-cerro-las-minitas-reaches-critical-mass/

Currently reading this presentation of Southern Silver Exploration. Why the fuck are people hyped with AgEq ??? I will never get it...

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/russia-will-now-demand-rubles-grain-worlds-largest-wheat-exporter

>>50119751
They think he diluted too much and ruined the upside, which would be true based on the old gas pricing, but we are getting 3x higher prices now with potential for more later on in the year. Funding with Echelon was an awful choice, and I have complained about in older threads, but it's too late to fixate on that now, and, as stated previously, we still have a lot of upside even without exploration/Bulgaria. Anyway, on the note of exploration/Bulgaria Arthur mentioned in his latest interview, on June 30, that exploration could potentially be accelerated, and maybe more importantly the Bulgaria fields could be developed solo in tandem with SASB, where previously we would have been either holding off on the Bulgarian property for 2 years, or finding a JV.

The share price is tanking simply because everyone in the Echelon financing shorted it prior, at around .35-.42 CAD and now they can use those shares to cover risk free while still holding onto their warrants. Same thing happened last time when we picked up 5 mill shorts in a month that all covered when financing ended. This one is worse since there was advance notice on the financing and confidence that they'd make it in. Anyway, the bulk of the price drop is over and anything further is due to the lack of happening for 1 month and also related to the general market.

>>50119431
>ever selling
Oh right I forgot about the tax part of it. Im sure theres probably a loophole where you can register an out-of-state LLC and use it as a business asset and "sell" it to yourself or something gray as fuck

>>50119597
Where did you find that list? Is the etf futures-based? What does GUNR look like?

>>50115701
oh no no no, those turbo christians he's been having on the channel are not gonna like this

>>50116879
why would that be bad?

Junior miners are no longer risk but extremely dealthy risk? The recession threw a wrench into any other them being potential big risers?

>>50121342
Extremely risky ? Bearish sentiment everywhere ?

Time to buy.

>>50119431
your 1oz coin won't be tax exempt either. you'll be paying capital gains whether you like it or not.

Reminder that Chinks are coordinating ecological disinfo, protests, blockades and sabotage operations against miners in US and Canada through native indian groups and eco/green non-profit organizations.

https://tnc.news/2022/07/02/beijing-directed-cyber-attacks-against-canadian-mining-company/

What are people's opinions of the stability of employment in mining during the upcoming recession? Will mining jobs be safe?

>>50119431
>>50121929
>paying capital gains on physical metals
thats dumb unless you are big time

>>50124035
I find the sector very confusing. These businesses were doing fine at $1300 an oz for years. Now as it falls to $1800/oz suddenly everyone is running out of high grade deposits. Exploration/Development/mining cycle is rotating I guess.
I would guess many of these mines are going to go bankrupt shortly or stop producing. But the mines that produce in 2023 will enjoy much higher margins due to reduced competition, and finally people losing faith in the deflation meme.

>>50124139
AAAAAAAAHHHHHHHH I DON'T KNOW IF I WANT TO SPEND THE EXTRA MONEY ON THE BRITTANIA OR THE BAR AAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHH

>>50124667
>>50124035
a LOT of new projects trying to ramp up production are having a hard time, were going to see more mothball shortly i am sure. Exploration spending hasnt slowed down though so thats a good thing, at least for now. I can explain further later this evening when i am less buzzed.

>>50125416
Thanks for the reply

>>50125665
I would go further but unfortunately i have family over right now and the booze is free flowing tonight, so when i dry out a bit i ll go into deeper detail.

>>50125081
its not gona matter. the gov't isn't going to know if you had capital gains or not on 1oz of platinum. there is a threshold that gets reported during a transaction. for gold its 25oz, anything less than that doesn't even get reported

>>50125856
I know that, but 1oz gold and platinum bars in assay cards are commonly faked, coins not so much since they need to be a specific size and weight and have security features on them so lm still thinking if l should go ahead and spend the extra $30 for the Brittania instead.

Redwolf, if you're reading this, can you memeline the chart of Irving ? I need to know where their next resistance is beside the current one

>>50125899
just get the brittannia. i have a bunch of those in silver and they're great

Bros is the Ruble the official currency of CMMG?

https://www.mining.com/web/explainer-nuts-and-bolts-of-the-lmes-cancelled-nickel-trades-legal-case/

neat update on how the legal battle on nickel futures is going.

>>50126480
I like how IRV follow GDXJ trend, can help picking a bottom

>>50126480
Yes.

>>50116879
Yes.

>>50113819
Which is why I bailed on altiplano six months ago. Gold ventures doesn't do his DD

>>50116700
Encuf is indeed the best.

>>50119553
Stop being a degenerate and go to the God damn gym and start studying investing instead.

>>50120945
GUNR holds the stocks of commodity producing companies. Those are futures contracts which are literally the items listed being trading. A corn futures contract is something like 1000 bushels and has a set price.

>>50121342
Micheal Oliver is saying less than a month for the moonshot in silver miners. He's well respected. Some of my miners were up 18% the other day. Santa Cruz, impact

>>50125739
That's cool that even though you're Canadian you still celebrate the fourth of July with family Panman. XD

>>50127053
Yes.

>>50129239
I wouldnt say he doesnt do his DD. Its because he is too rich, he is aiming for a 50M gain in this wave on gold and silver.

He can take 70 positions, and each position is twice your whole portfolio. That give him a huge advantage. He can take risk you can't take. Only flaw is it take him weeks to unload (as we saw with Gogold).

People shouldn't invest like him or Eric Sprott. They can have half their positions goes to 0 and still be multi-millionnaire. He doesn't give a shit Chile can nationalize, the risk is worth taking.

>>50129155
thank you in advance then. I'm really tempted to buy more new quality position like Southern Silver or Golden Tag but I will stick with Irving. It can become a producer very fast, this laggy trend is a gift to accumlate, not look at "greener" pasture.

>>50129300
>Micheal Oliver is saying less than a month for the moonshot in silver miners.
he was wrong last time, dont get your hopes up

Gas bros... no relief pump since $9 what the fuck...

>>50131488
You always buy the top, what can we say. Gas was shilled here at 3$.

>>50116857
The more I look into it, the more I think it's worth a suicid stack

>>50131488
foreign natural gas is fine though

>>50131488
The USians don't want revolts so they might clamper down on the LNG. I'd be expecting facilities to either mysteriously catch on fire or blow up or be further delayed.

>>50130017
No he wasn't. His targets weren't hit on the downside

>>50134919
we were supposed to have a breakout back in May when the weekly close finished above 24.50 according to Oliver. instead we went -20% over the past month and a half and now we're at 19.80$

>>50134960
We missed his target by one cent.

>>50129295
Yeah but some etfs like USO use futures and swaps, and Horizons etfs are multiple futures

>>50134960
Not trying to act like the guy is Jesus. I don't worship any analyst. Just saying the dude is smart and well respected.

https://twitter.com/SilverVarden/status/1543652399826382848
Neat find out at Dolly Varden Silver, testing a forest "kill zone"

>>50136746
Hi PAN MAN. Do you have predictions on where you think employment in mining is headed, precious metals, base metals, and even coal?

>>50136746
How much danger are junior miners in with the current atmosphere of everything going on? Is their risk too high?

Honestly GDX(J) look prime for a fat rally maybe we’ll get some hopium back this week as blue lagoon continues to fuck investors over

>>50115757
>So if the SCOTUS EPA ruling means companies dont have their hands tied
It only limits the ability to regulate somewhat with regard to the major questions doctrine. The bigger problem is federal leases and the gov't constantly saying they are going to kill fossil fuels. The result of which has been reduced investment and capital inflows to the sector.
>So shouldnt that create a bidding war to the lowest dollar
Thats essentially what happened between 2014 - 2019. COVID changed everything and the world is different now. US production will creep up gradually but don't expect large increases in output anytime soon.
>>50115757
>In other words, I could play earnings on producers in the 2-5 months from inflated prices, and then exit
You could have but you're about 2 years too late. There's probably still room to run but the overall negative market sentiment and inflation have created some headwinds.

Alright /CMMG/ big brain Anons, thoughts on gold royalty MTA? (Metalla Royalty & Streaming LTD.)
Eb Tucker is pretty based. It all sounds good but unfortunately, I am a smoothed brain autist. What think?
https://youtu.be/CVgFBuSmkG8
https://www.metallaroyalty.com/

>>50115757
Are they going to start mining oil shale or something?

>>50139027
Playing earnings could also mean to the downside. It's directional.
But still, since I don't know the implications for oil or gold, I might stay out of those sectors for now, or have minimal exposure / maintain holdings. I'm mostly in uranium myself

Stocks and Bonds getting recked together. Pension funds are going to panic. They thought their 60/40 portfolio was God tier. High money printing and low interest rates cause this. Low interest rates pump assets and money printing devalues bonds. I'm waiting for pensions and Boomers to rotate into boomer rocks.

let's hear it for fuckin BAYHORSE WOOOO
who here still /believin'/
graham rocks

>>50141777
Still holding. At a minimum people need to DCA into mining stocks while sentiment to EXTREMELY low.

>>50137843
a down turn in new operations is bad but not unusual for market conditions right now, finding a job in mining / exploration is extremely easy right now, as bigger operators are still going strong and need people, especially older guys retiring in the next two years.
>>50138212
Juniors are extremely risky right now, especially any companies trying to shift from exploration to production right now. Alexco for example is having a rough time getting costs down to bring their mill back online, same goes for Osisko Development and their Bonanza Ledge too. Its extremely hard to get a project into the real production phase, it kills more projects than pure exploration, especially in a market like this. Pure exploration companys though will be ok for now, so long as their costs dont sky rocket. Fuel is a huge cost right now for projects in the Golden Triangle for example. Helicopter trips have almost doubled in cost due to fuel alone.

>>50121790
Can anyone explain to a brainlet wtf Rick rule is saying? I remember hearing this from his interview and I didn't get it then either.

>>50142052
Basically he's saying that when the ENTIRE market is fucked, that's when you should be making a move

>media is now starting to make articles about how uranium production needs to be increased
>inb4 ZH
Shame I only have $1k in uranium. Market needs to shit itself this week, please and thank you

>>50141966
Thanks, buddy

>>50141243
Oil is going to have blowout earnings, but it might not even matter. It surely hasn't mattered the past couple weeks at least, algos ignore fundamentals and just follow the indexes. Recession FUD, crypto baggies and tech trannies getting dunked on has others selling, but there's not going to be a traditional recession. Its a technical recession at worst (GDP contraction), we haven't seen the massive layoffs and job loss that normally accompany a recession because the labor market hasn't completely recovered from COVID. There's nobody to layoff, companies will simply stop trying to hire people which they were already struggling to do anyway. The biggest consumer spending headwind is inflation, but with oil prices leveling off along with real estate most of the inflation should be baked in by now. If oil equities continue at current prices expect massive buybacks. MRO has already repurchased ~15% of its shares in 2 quarters and plans to expand the program. XOM announced it would triple its buybacks this year.

>>50141966
>Juniors are extremely risky right now, especially any companies trying to shift from exploration to production right now.


Ah so basically most of the companies /CMMG/ invested into over the past year. It seemed to be a nice premise, invest in a exploration story that had an outside chance at becoming a producer (like BHS, BLLG), so then you could capitalize on potential re-ratings before Canacord or whoever swoop in and send the share price flying.

But most of us never really took into account the macro impulses like credit contraction and tightening like we are currently seeing rip apart the viability of these mines that have nothing but inferred resources and maybe some core samples if they are lucky enough to even get processed (looking at BLLG here).

I think in the long run it will be fine for us who took positions with re-ratings of those holdings in mind, we have a “shortage of everything” scenario playing out and we all know companies producing actual goods like commodities will come out ahead once our contrarian views become more accepted and more investments from crypto and GME types come to the TSX instead.

It may be frustrating but we need to remember everyone besides energy chads are bleeding profusely right now, and all it takes is the Fed walking back hikes and re-committing to the accommodative policy for send gold/silver to ATHs.

>>50138212
You're getting them at basement prices.

>>50140715
It's listed on the GDX. It's a pretty solid stock. I have a big chunk in it.

>>50141759
Normies are getting wrecked in just about everything. Crypro normies included.

>>50142121
Which is now.

>You just so happened to open shorts before 9/11?
>Terrorism

>>50143390
trying to plan ahead in investing (especially for something like mining / commodities) is a massive headache. We all knew bad times were coming but we didnt really know when or how it would really effect things outright. Right now investment is tight and companies are struggling to work with the capital they have. Failure to do so means doom. We can only hope that those that make it out of this are better for it in the long run.

https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1543749839258718208
>Chinese Developer Shimao Fails to Pay $1 Billion Dollar Bond.
>This continues a trend where Chinese real estate developers default on their foreign bonds and focus instead on domestic obligations. At some point, maybe Wall Street will learn and start pricing in that risk.