/biz/ - Business & Finance

what do you think is the biggest problem right now?

how do you see things realistically playing out?

What will happen next? Why isn't everything crashing yet?

>>50113650
How to become day trader?

explain dark pools

your merit will be judged on your answer

What about the title SAIPEM of FTSE MIB? The last moves of the company look strange, but they do actual stuff.

>>50113674

Biggest problem is definitely QE and low rates for a huge portion of the time coming from the 2008 recession. Covid hit, more money hit the markets, things are completely out of balance. The fed have kept up with this experiment for too long. Kicking the bucket down for a few more years is only going to make things worse for everyone. We haven't even begun to form a bottom for any markets.

>>50113650
Wen bull market again sir?

>>50113699

dark pools are just off exchange liquidity that's posted by a fund. I can access some but not all. Huge transactions are made in dark pools as to not move the price.

When you're accessing the dark pool you don't know where the bids and offers are, if spreads are big and a stock is illiquid you can get a fill at a better price than a market order.

>>50113714
interesting. how badly do you think this will affect the average working class man?

>>50113687
I'm really interested in why things aren't entering a tailspin too.

Any bear rally or bounce to sell my bags?

>>50113723

Bull market can start tomorrow if the fed sees inflation running down, then having a pause with rate hikes. The problem is not the bull market, the problem is kicking the can down the road so people can have more bull markets and more rallies. These problems add on, they don't disappear. Eventually everything will come crashing down, probably not in my lifetime though. Fed and banks are just too good at making everything seem okay and delaying the inevitable for years.

>>50113650
are real estate markets going to tank? do you think we wont bottom for another year? how high with the 10 year yield go?

>>50113742
Things aren't entering a tailspin because markets have become far too important for everyone. Can the US function without an S&P500? Sure it can, but can you imagine a world where s&p is trading at 100$?

Everyone wants to keep the party going. It's been going since 2009 but during the covid epidemic the fed made a huge error by causing a complete disbalance between supply and demand, having a fuckton of money printed and giving them to banks who in turn pump the markets.

These money aren't going anywhere, and the imbalance that has been caused will eventually bite us all in the ass. When will that be I have no idea. S&P could reach a new all time high by the end of December for all I know.

The people who move the markets decide what's going to happen. Your average joe cannot move the market by a single point even if he put all his net worth in the market today.

We are at the mercy of the market makers who work for the big financial institutions.

>>50113757

I think this is an excellent question.

Real estate markets are going to tank eventually, the growth is not sustainable even with the current rate hikes which are minuscule.

Regarding 10-year bond- when people buy the bond its yield drops down so the yield has an inverse relationship with the price, so to speak.

If you have inflation running at 8%, and your 10 year bond is at 3% and going lower, are you going to buy it?

If people say yes and they begin to buy it, it'll go down to 2.5%. Are you going to buy it then?

The fed fucked up BIG TIME because bonds are in a tailspin and in a magic circle. Nobody is buying bonds because they don't even beat inflation. The yield curve is fucked up already, and things in the bond market will remain fucked up for a looong time.

>>50113806
how are you positioning yourself in a macro sense over the next year?

>>50113650
You think they gonna hike another rate up this month?

>>50113844

As an individual, I'll continue to DCA into ETFs that I like and fit my risk profile. There's nothing more to be done. Either the markets recover in 10 years or they don't and we'll have far bigger problems than my portfolio that I'll be 50% down on.

As a trader who works at a fund, I'm continuously short different types of financial instruments and will continue to stay short until I see a reversal in inflation which could signal at least a period of easing by the fed.

>>50113856

I think we'll definitely see another rate hike by at least 0.5%. Then afterwards, I can speculate that CPI will come down a little bit which will give JPow a reason to go no-hike afterwards for at least a month until the next CPI comes.

What timeframes do you guys operate in and how do you tackle optimal control, decision theory, or differential games?
I'm especially interested to know what you do in scenarios where you can't trivially formulate the HJB equations for deriving an optimal policy at each point in time. Do you use an approximation algorithm that produces a greedy policy that bounds the optimal policy in sublinear time?

>>50113907
I am thinking to slowly start buying some crypto after the next hike up that will cause another crash.

People are expecting that the government gonna again give money to stabilize the economy but that would literally just cause inflation again to go up.

I feel like the economy could take a few more rate hikes up before we getting into danger levels.

I said it in another thread but unemployment is still very low at only 3.6%

5% would be a healthy economy and in 2008 it reached 10% before we saw the bottom.

The great depression had a unemployment rate of 24~25%

>>50113867
>>50113835
based thanks op, these are the threads i come here for

>>50113916
I don't work in the quant department of a hedge fund so I have no idea how to answer those. There are a ton of different algos that are used in different scenarios and it's up to the head of the quant team to make a decision on how to approach a stock.

If we're talking about automated market makers- the problem they have is always demand, never supply. They'll go naked short on your order all day every day because eventually they'll start covering off of your selling and even out a very nice profit.

>>50113867
but inflation it's made up number anon, they don't even take account of fuel prices and everything comes from a truck, you get what I mean? What if the inflation numbers gets low but the gas prices are around 20? The spr is also getting dry, the us economy is a house of cards collapsing, I rather buy rubles, what do you think of them? Isnt a safe heaven that not many can access?

>>50113650
When is the fucking GameStop stock craze going to end?
I'm so tired of their general

>>50113946

All of your assumptions are true in a vacuum where the markets are efficient and in line with the fundamentals.

Unfortunately, markets are neither efficient, nor in line with fundamentals.

The next rate hike could cause a massive rally, the mainstream media will say the bottom is in and financial institutions will start pumping the markets again. It's all about the narrative.

Historically, in order for the fed hikes to control inflation, they needed to be ABOVE the inflation rate. If we're looking at 8% on a yearly basis, we'd need the fed funds rate to be over that in order to push it down. If fed funds go to 8% all the easy money will evaporate, real estate market will come crashing down like a comet, businesses that are debt-heavy will immediately default, etc. etc.

At the end of the day, JPow just wants his term to be over and leave this pile of shit for the next sucker, who will also try to kick the can down the road until his term is over and so on.

>>50113835
Obviously there will be a downturn, but do you really see a sustained crash? Even 2008 was basically just a blip in the grand scheme of things, and now subprime Mexican mortgages have been curbed pretty strongly. I just don’t see how housing goes down when you have a fixed land supply + mass immigration + fund speculation. Of course inputs like wages, fuel are high atm as well.

>>50113969

Inflation is definitely made up, they changed the core calculations 3 times if I remember correctly from the 1980s until today, and they continue to "fine tune" the formula however they see fit.

>>50113999

GME craze will end when it ends. If you know how and when the funds that are shorting this stock are covering, you'll make some nice money swing trading this.

The funds that have this short have an abysmally huge position and all the apes that are locking the float through DRS aren't doing them any favors.

Eventually they'll cover because they've been covering for the last year and a half, will they cause a squeeze doing it at some point? Probably not but who knows.

>>50113806
I hate this shit. I wish everything would stop and would go down and we returned to reality so that I can actually see and interact with TRUTH. Fuck this gay shit. If I know it's all going to crash and burn in mine or my kids lifetime then why even try? My efforts will be wasted. Jesus fuck my efforts are wasted regardless. I can't wait to leave my gay ass job.

>>50114038


I honestly don't see a sustained crash but things might look bleak for the foreseeable future (think this year and next one).

The 2008 crash was caused by a multitude of bad news and financially catastrophic events that happened pretty much at the same time. I don't see this happening now though.

However, if tomorrow some big bank defaults and then MBS starts to go bad the next week? And then the week after that we see inflation at 9%? We might see the market truly tank then.

The situation is simple- it's a bear market until inflation comes back down and rate hikes begin to ease up.

>>50114038
Housing wont go down because nebulous asset managers will buy every single-family dwelling ear marked to be transformed into high-density residences for their tax-cattle to fund Judge Dredd tier mega-cities where you will eat the bugs.

>>50114023
Yeah I wouldn't won't to be in JPow shoes now.

Whatever he would do it would cause one or another way chaos.

My brother who has a pretty high position in a global multi billion$ company.

Told me that they gonna also announce layoffs and that the market is crazy
Every few weeks they need to increase the priced and some products are getting totally cut off from the production because people aren't buying them anymore and the profit margins are shrinking

>>50114107

Nebulous asset managers will be buying every piece of real estate until they don't.

Remember in 2008 when some moron was buying up homes at a rate of 10 per month and using them as leverage to get more loans at other banks? I wonder if that guy is still doing blowjobs at a wendys to pay off the mountain of debt he's in right now.

Don't underestimate what a simple rate hike can do to highly leveraged organizations and individuals.

If you think asset managers have billions of dollars cash in hand, you're wrong. It's all borrowed. When the bankman comes knocking because your minimum payment went from 500K to 1M I wonder what'll happen...

>>50114094

There there, anon. We've been fed with shit and we'll continue to be fed with shit until our clocks stop ticking.

The fed should have let the market crash and burn in March 2020. They didn't and in fact did the absolute worst thing they could have done. Why? Because no fed chair wants to leave office and be know as the guy who let the markets crash.

>>50113731
>I can access some but not all
Access dark pool data of GameStop (GME) and tell us what you found

>>50114238

I don't need to access anything to tell you that bigger buy orders are routed through darkpools and bigger sell orders hit the market directly. You can thank hedge funds who also have market making licenses for that. Oh, and those hedge funds also happen to have a short position in said stock.

The conflict of interest is both funny and depressing because nothing will change as SEC and FINRA will get their cut from all of this through "fines".

>>50114302
>don't need to access anything to tell you that bigger buy orders are routed through darkpools and bigger sell orders hit the market directly
You need to access to confirm that small orders, including orders under 25 shares, are pushed through dark pools to suppress the price.

>>50114238
it should be obvious by now that OP doesn't work in finance (or if he really does, not at the job he's trying to make you believe he does)

>>50113650
Why do you go on the internet and lie?

>>50114351
Yes, sounds like another larp by a student who has done two courses of macro and thinks he's on top of the world.

>>50114104
A big wild card just happened yesterday. The longshoremen on the West Coast working the ports just had their contract expire. Apparently no strike in the works, but would greatly complicate supply chain shit(I assume the supply chain stuff has gotten better, I don’t hear about it much anymore).

The big thing scaring me is the oil prices. I can see our leaders keeping up this retarded sanctions regime indefinitely, even if Zelensky gets the Gaddafi treatment in a Kiev back alley. Unlike the 70s we have fracking and shale now, but that’s a lower energy return. It’s a wild card that goes beyond the immediate business cycle or two.

If anyone reading develops real estate, not a bad idea to start buying up land near these fracking sites in North Dakota and the like. Oil people make lots of money and need restaurants, clubs, etc. Though it may be priced in somewhat by now

>>50114320

You are correct that even small orders are pushed through dark pools.

However, you are forgetting that only orders of 100 shares or more can actually push a price. If the market offer is only 100 shares, that is.

I look at GME almost every day at certain periods and most offers are at least 500-600 shares, some are iceberg orders. The amount of money you'll need to get over those orders and push the price up, especially being handicapped (large buy orders routed through darkpools) is just huge.

Retail investors have not, and will never be able to solely push the price of GME anywhere.

There are a lot of funds that are shorting this, but don't forget there are also funds that are long and want the price to go up.

>>50114378
>Retail investors have not, and will never be able to solely push the price of GME anywhere
Kek. They have done in the past and will do again if enough hype is there. Combine that with retards buying entire option chains.
>but don't forget there are also funds that are long and want the price to go up.
Incorrect. As of Q2 2022, apart from BR and Vanguard there's only two funds that have over 1 million shares.

Anyway, splivvy and marketplace soon bye bye hedgies.

>>50114378

So in a nut shell we just short.....

Then maybe profit... maybe.

>>50114351

Just because I cannot access every single darkpool on NYSE and NASDAQ means I don't work in finance? What?

By access I mean use the darkpool liquidity for my own trades. If I have to buy 3K shares in a low liquid stock I might push it way past where I needed to. Instead I just access the liquidity in a darkpool and buy the shares I need at one go without moving the market. Sometimes these pools do not have the amount of liquidity I need, other times they do.

>>50114378
Why doesn't the long funds just DRS their shares to end it already?
If you have a few billion to throw around, it should be easy

>>50114489
No long funds are on our side except RC Ventures
Current 33% borrow rate and 100 days of 100% utilisation screams that the squeeze is imminent

>>50114473

If you think retail investors just have 20K lying around to buy 100 shares of GME (at 200$ price for example) just to move it 1 cent, and this goes on and on until GME goes from 200$ to 270$ in a single day, you're out of your mind.

Are you aware of the amount of capital that trades on high volume days in GME? Do you actually believe that there are hundreds of thousands of people who all want to throw in 10-20-30K in a single day so GME can squeeze?

Also, regarding the funds that are long. Ask yourself this- if the major short position of funds who are shorting GME is now transferred to derivatives (like swaps), who's at the other end of that trade? If Citadel is buying swaps to hide short positions, who is selling it to them?

>>50114520

Regarding the squeeze- the stock dividend will definitely shake things up a bit and there will be fireworks.

You will most definitely not see the price of the stock in the millions or hundreds of thousands like a lot of redditors want to. Why? Because retail investors are blips in the radar.

The funds that are long (please don't look at SEC data to tell me that there are no funds long on this because it's bullshit) will be more than happy to sell their long position for a huge profit of lets say 1000$ per share. They'll slam the offers, the short hedge funds will buy it off of them, and retail investors will be left holding the stock as it drops back down, because "muh infinity pool baka baka" and "floor is 5 million $ lets gooo lets gooo"

>>50113650
What is the bottom of bitcoin?

>>50114580
>and there will be fireworks.
You outed yourself buddy, you ain't a HF insider, you're a redditor just like me.
>>50114580
>You will most definitely not see the price of the stock in the millions or hundreds of thousands like a lot of redditors want to. Why? Because retail investors are blips in the radar.
Doesn't matter how little they own as long as the squeeze is still on the price will continue to rise.
>The funds that are long (please don't look at SEC data to tell me that there are no funds long on this because it's bullshit) will be more than happy to sell their long position for a huge profit of lets say 1000$ per share. They'll slam the offers, the short hedge funds will buy it off of them, and retail investors will be left holding the stock as it drops back down, because "muh infinity pool baka baka" and "floor is 5 million $ lets gooo lets gooo"
Hidden long positions partially cancel out hidden short positions
Leaving the infinity squeeze for retail holders with diamond hands

>>50114607

The bottom of bitcoin is 0? What kind of a question is that?

There is not a single person dead or alive that can predict with 100% certainty what a stock or any type of financial instrument will do today, tomorrow or the day after. If there was such a person, Warren Buffet would be shining his shoes every day.

I can speculate that BTC might go all the way down to 10K before bottoming out. Realistically, I'm buying BTC here and on the way down because I can't predict where the bottom will be at.

>>50113752
when everything crashes will we see a mad max like apokalypse with leather gimps and hot v8 cars? or will we just go back into the stone age?

What kind of funds? Do you consider traders who work at retail funds to be "real" traders? They just take direction from a PM and aren't actually taking on any risk. Is that fair or am I missing something?

>>50114641

I personally have a considerable long position in GME that I've been holding since February 2021 with an average price of around 50$. I haven't sold a single share since then. I want fireworks just as much as you.

That doesn't mean I have to bury my head in the sand and wait for an infinity squeeze that will send the price of GME in the millions of dollars per share.

As I said in one of my previous posts, the party is not over. Shorts are covering, but their position is so abysmally massive that it might take 10 years to cover it in full. All it takes is one good (and I mean GOOD) catalyst to trigger some panic in just 1 of the many funds that are shorting this.

Crypto marketplace is not such a catalyst, but a stock dividend look spicy.

>>50114695

I know traders that work at "retail" funds that are much smarter than people who work at a trading desk in an investment bank, and vice versa.

You'd be surprised at how stupid some people with a ton of capital at their disposal are. I know of at least 4 people that have worked in big investment banks at a trading desk that blew up the capital they were given in a matter of weeks.

>>50114038

Housing will dump when blackrock and friends will decide that the market is bottoming out and they will dump their portfolio to free up cash to buy stocks.

>>50114802

Blackrock and friends don't need to dump anything to free up cash.

Remember that thing called reverse repo? That's extra liquidity that blackrock and friends have in excess and they are not doing anything with.

Are they waiting for the bottom to start investing, or are they holding on to that money so they can bail themselves out in an event of a 2008-esque fuckup? We'll have to wait and see.

It's been a fun couple of hours. I'll be logging off and might do another AMA tomorrow. Cya.

>>50113752
>Fed and banks are just too good at making everything seem okay and delaying the inevitable for years.
This sounds like famous last words or just retarded cope. I think it's funny how the bull ended once fed board members' trades starting getting scrutinized. We still don't know where all this fucking taxpayer money created by the fed is going so I'm betting on incompetence and luck is running out.

>>50114913
good thread thanks

whats your favorite anime?
also
good thread

>>50114965
Akira.
Neon is a close second.
Trigun for third.
Full Metal Alchemist for fourth.
Her (unreleased) for 5th.

>>50113752
>Eventually everything will come crashing down, probably not in my lifetime though.
lol the US has around 10 years left before total collapse

>>50114913
thanks anon, can‘t decide if larp or not but you know your stuff unlike most of biz

>>50114711
>i'm a trader
>bought GME $50
>didn't sold 400
>didn't sold 300
>bagholding 4 moon

Nice try larper

>>50114913
>Remember that thing called reverse repo? That's extra liquidity that blackrock and friends have in excess and they are not doing anything with.
Kek larpies.

That is cash from mostly fidelity and FED banks, not blackrock.

>>50115215
>>50116130
He knows a basis but makes it seem like he has much more expertise. The only smart people are at /GME/ and superstonk - and even those few intelligent ones are surrounded by dumb crayon eaters.

bump

>>50113650
>I work at a fund as a trader with direct market access.
I don't believe you.

>>50114711
>I personally have a considerable long position in GME that I've been holding since February 2021 with an average price of around 50$. I haven't sold a single share since then.

why dont you swing trade?

i was cautiously optimistic about GME short squeeze, i missed cashing out at the $400 and $300 squeeze (events?) because i didn't believe that was possible. i've been trying to swing trade every earnings call since that's when it usually goes up.

my view is that the short positions have no choice but to leverage up, and borrow to short because if they get margin called it's game over, and any state of affairs besides marign call is ok. i underestimated how dire that existential threat was and how far they'd be willing to go, but luckily because i was cautious i didn't lose money, just opportunity.

>>50116575
probably this

>>50113650
>with direct market access
Whoah. So you can buy and sell things?

>>50114371
Not to mention the amount of double spacing. A shill from reddit's first time on /biz/.

>>50114525
>If Citadel is buying swaps to hide short positions, who is selling it to them?
I would assume blackrock

>>50114711
>their position is so abysmally massive that it might take 10 years to cover it in full
do you have hard data on this or are you just speculating?

>>50120769
There are easily more shares of the company held by investors around the world than ever should have been in existence or have been issued by the company. Hard statistical analysis has proven this every time. One of the only reasons it hasn't caused a nuclear meltdown of all markets is that all brokers are bucketshops, don't actually buy what you tell them to to a large degree, or if they do buy it they turn around and lend it back out while still crediting your portfolio with the position you think you own because they have more than enough money to pay you and everyone else holding those shares out at time of sale. People holding shares to a psychotic degree actually helps brokers that people hold shares with, because it means they can lend your shit out without worrying about you selling and even if you did sell it wouldn't matter as they could just pay you out and continue using the shares they bought to lend. It is all fake and gay. What isn't fake and gay is buying shares through the transfer agent of the company, or transferring shares to that agent, as each share in their custody is removed from the DTCC's DTC which means there is one less share that can be used for a locate which makes it that much harder to keep shorting and creating asinine swaps contracts to hide how upside down everything is. The GME baggies don't have to DRS 76.5 million shares or whatever the exact number of shares issued by the company is to have hard proof this game cannot continue, because big institutions like Blackrock/Vanguard/Shitadel/Point 72/Susquehanna have to report what they own and that combined with insider ownership combined with retail DRS ownership can equal the total number issued by the company and at that point the game stops. That point is rapidly approaching.

A split shitdicks shorts because at that point shares must be recalled to get a count as to how many shares must be issued during the split - meaning only "real" shares get issued split shares.

>>50120894
(cont due to character count cap)
At which point a bunch of people holding with brokers either don't get their shares from the split, or the broker credits them as having them which is in and of itself illegal as there's no way they actually own them. Where the real fun begins is if people then try to DRS those additional shares they received in the split, but that's a forbidden jutsu I probably shouldn't even mention as that would actually grind all of finance to a halt and see share prices skyrocket to the insane meme numbers people are talking about. Either way, GME wins, the rod and the ring will strike, the game will stop, markets will get prolapsed, and it will be exactly nobodies fucking fault but their own. Which makes it extremely funny, bordering on hilarious to the point of insanity, which is why I and many others hold.

op managed to say absolutely nothing of value in 23 posts, congrats. Not like we havent talked this crap for ages already

>>50120943
i think that the price of GME will eventually have to 10-100x kinda like tesla did to slow down the rate of DRS and to get some people to cash out so that the DRS won't get to 100%. thus eventually satisfying the supply and demand and avoiding a game-breaking situation. that's just my take on it though.

I really think that huge gold deposit and gta6 using crypto is going to moon prices again.

>>50120988
This. Let it run high enough to incentivize people to sell enough to keep it from melting down the market. There's more than enough money in the system to allow for paying out prices in the five to six figure range, and due to how mathematics and psychology works there will be enough money in the system to pay out the last diehard motherfuckers in the seven figure range to get the number of shares held by all entities at or below the number of all shares issued by the company post-split. Splitting also keeps the number from going as high as it would were there not a split and kicks off the action to begin with by creating a situation where it is proven beyond a shadow of a doubt and in a manner that cannot be denied that there are more shares held than ever should be, and putting every brokerages balls in a vice in this manner means shorts get fucked to death and no swap or bucketshop held-in-street-name fake and gay fugazi tactics can hide or ignore the reality of the situation.

>>50114580
>>50114711
Thinly veiled baggie cope general
Go back to /gme/

>>50113714
>The fed have kept up with this experiment for too long. Kicking the bucket down for a few more years is only going to make things worse for everyone
You scare the fuck out of me. Are they really gonna let out all the air from the 2008 bubble? That’s 15 years of printing into oblivion that Ron Paul warned about in 2008. It’s really all coming to a head now? I’m starting to get anxiety. I don’t even know where to begin to prepare.

>>50113650
Is it dumb to start a long term low risk ETF accumulation right now? Talking about VWCE and similar

>>50115083

>>dont throw stones

>>50113650
Any Drk net sites you reccomend?

>>50113650
go back

>>50113867
What kind of ETFs anon?

>>50113957
>says nothing but fed sucks and fucked up, buys etfs and tells you that bonds are fucked...
Wow, truly insightful stuff, not like literally everyone else knows this

>>50113650
Best indicators or confluences to look for entries and exits?
Do you use fibs to look for confluence against expected moves?
Patterns or structures?
Trading plans, risk exposure on each trade?
Do you have any hard rules that you do not break no matter what?