/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>50095611
Shouldn't DXY track 10 YR Yield and go down soon?

>>50095611
The coin is rugging my basterds

>>50095611

wtf.

>>50095688
everyone is still at 110% fear

>>50095611
Wait is this bad?

The yield going down is bad because it means the markets think that a recession is becoming guaranteed (Atlanta Fed just released -1% GDP growth forecast today) and that J Pow will be forced back into QE

Bullish unironically

>>50095933
yes and we're at the last stretch before everything goes ballistic

>>50096209
Man we are fucked then i don't think Powell is gonna back off from another 75bp rate hike if cpi numbers are bad.

WHAT DOES THE CHART MEAN?
WHAT IS YEILD?
WHY WOULD THE YEILD OF A BIND CHANGE

>>50095611
higher lows

How did Ronald Reagan fix the recession? Why aren't we doing that?

>>50095781
sun of a basterd bitch do not redeem

>>50096296
That was Volcker. He raised rates to like 20 percent and it worked. Fed can't do it now because it would bankrupt the government and Brandon needs more money for dem programs

>>50096209
>(Atlanta Fed just released -1% GDP growth forecast today) and that J Pow will be forced back into QE
The market is pricing it in wrong because he can't be forced back to QE unless the jobs numbers go down, which they won't because they don't count people who aren't looking. Wages will keep going up, unemployment will remain low, inflation will level off around 6% and the fed will keep raising rates over the course of 4-5 years to something between 15 and 20% before the inflation numbers come down. It will be a massive multi year recession but people will remain employed through it, or rather the unemployment numbers will remain low. QE is dead.

>>50096364
The us government would default if it got that high. Would maybe be based though. That's the true great reset. No other tricks. Just raise rates until people are miserable

>>50096364
This is why I legitimately think we'll see the mother of all asset bubble crashes in 2023. I genuinely think SPY will drop to the low 200s

>>50095933
Not afraid enough, ironically.

>>50096338
What can the Fed then? Realistically, I mean.

>>50096209
But QE is the cause of this mess.

>>50096209
No it isnt. The yield going down is fantasitic as it makers borrowing rates cheaper. J Pow literally (LITERALLY) WANTS A RECESSION. So why would a recession with falling bond rates have him reverse course when that literally what he wants?

>>50096233
Pretty much. They dont know.

>>50096364
>The market is pricing it in wrong because he can't be forced back to QE unless
Except the U.S. government has a $31 trillion + debt to pay off.

What the fuck is going on?

Why aren’t all asset classes mooning from this?

>>50096879
Because it's highly likely it's going to fucking collapse. Recession with no QE, it's going to last years

>>50096893
Uh what?
How does that even fit in at all?
Do you know the world needs the fed to keep printing so they can sustain their dollar denominated debt?

That’s not an option at all. QE will happen

>>50096945
He thinks the entire world will be forced to and will comply to service debts that account for more than the literal dollar supply instead of just eventually deciding to print over it. Again.

I predicted we would return to QE eventually due to pressure from other countries on the fed and favorable CPI due to whiplash effect supply chains.
I guess the market is pricing that in.

>>50096364
Yep. These Fed pivot ers’ are going to get BTFO. It’s going to be fucking hilarious

>>50097154
This flawed logic is why rate hikes aren't priced in and the price crashes every time they raise the rates like they said they would. Delusional.

>>50097213
The rate hikes arent priced into the stock market, however, you talk about rate hikes as if there is no negative consequences for Jerome or the U.S. government in general. The U.S. is currently getting bond rates to dump because foreigners are realizing they'd rather hold those than their local government's especially considering their local government relies on U.S. military protection anyway...............

>>50096450
buy signal, (you)

>>50096209
>>50096237
Well I hoped you guys bought a house. They are going up about 200% in price because the FED is going to lower the rates to 1.3%

>>50096485
Tell the government to get their shit in order because they are going for a wild ride.

>>50096209
yield going down means the bond is being bought. This is a good thing

>>50097615
Eh. Forcing my mom to stay in here right now and keep paying instead of moving since its the only way I can really get her to invest her money and hopefully I can leverage it into an inheritance someday. I'm gonna wait another year and see what shakes out. I'll buy one next year and rent it out to her or something at market value just for tax purposes and go from there. Gotta keep Medicaid jews from taking all her money since she turns 65 soon.

>>50097295
>local government relies on U.S. military protection anyway
Ask a Ukrainian if that is true

>>50096237
Second week in a row with only 0.25% increase in grocery bill. (Been 1%-2% for a long time.)
>Now we need to check rents.
>Zestimate for my primary up 6% in the last month.

>>50097863
My experience is produce isn't that more expensive apart from a few things. Meat has definitely gone up. Anything PROCESSED though has gone through the fucking roof.

Remember the Fed is aiming for a 2% inflation rate for Price stability.
Possibility 1:
If Fed pivots because, miraculously, inflation falls to their target rate in just 1 month then inflation will likely persist- especially if they inject QE into the public market like they did in 2020 to fund bailouts, which would mean that the only other way to curb inflation would be raising taxes on the middle class. This would be political suicide for Dems. Thus, they would allow inflation to persist which would be a less painful political suicide.
Possibility 2:
Fed doesn't pivot because inflation is more or less still persisting, and unemployment rate is the same. Rate hikes continue and QT continues. Bond market is btfo'd and stocks dump more throwing tantrums at the Fed and economy slows more- good thing the Fed chairs sold high last year lol. This trend continues until unemployment rises to the extent that curbing inflation is no longer the priority.
Possibility 3:
Some other possibility that you come up with/stuff I'm too lazy to come up with

lol we're going to be forced to manufacture ww3 to distract from the economic situation this is gonna get nuts

toronto lookin like lebensraum für mich

>>50097909
What is the FED more sacred of? Inflation or rescission. I believe that the FED is most sacred of both. They will trigger a rescission to curb inflation.

Rates will go up

>>50097721
Im sure they know its true with all the free shit they are getting. Its another Lend Lease imagine that.

>>50096435
Yep, that's exactly what I'm betting on.

>>50098029
>toronto lookin like lebensraum für mich
Why toronto?

This is super bullish for housing. This will cause mortgage rates to fall and housing prices to continue their upward ascent unimpeded. If you don’t already own, you are priced out. Houselets will own nothing and be happy. USA will be like Europe soon where 80% are a permanent renter underclass. COVID relief was the biggest mass looting in our history.

>>50098346
fuck it im moving to brazil anyway

SSSSSSSSS

>>50095611
That looks just like the meme chat. Im a brainlet. Does that mean my stocks goes up or down? Does my house go up or down? Does my interest go up or down?

>>50098528
Bond rates falling means debt gets cheaper. Mortgage rates falls. Stocks typically go up. Your variable interest rate may (not) go down.

>>50096241
Yield is the interest earned, I believe. I’m probably wrong, but if inflation is high (making a low yield bond not only worthless, but essentially a guaranteed way to lose a percentage of your money annually, I.e. real inflation is 10% but you’ll get 3% yield which is -7% real yield), then people won’t buy bonds, lowering the yield/raising the “price”. The bond market is like three times the size of the stock market, and 10 year is the staple, if I understood what I’ve heard correctly. You can only imagine the destruction we’re about to face if people are racing for the exits and finding that there’s no safe place to go

>>50096364
Sorry but my intuition says this is a midwit take. How are wages going to go up in the coming recession? Rates are not being raised because the overlords like high stock valuations. No one is going to raise rates to fix inflation. THEY THINK INFLATION WILL GO AWAY ON ITS OWN. They think going after jobs and scaring corporations is gonna fix inflation. There’s no way in fuck that inflation levels out without someone jamming on the brakes. There are no brakes on this train because they cut them off in 2008!

>>50096364
>Wages will keep going up, unemployment will remain low, inflation will level off around 6% and the fed will keep raising rates over the course of 4-5 years to something between 15 and 20% before the inflation numbers come down.
do you honestly believe this? how are we going to pay 20% on 30-40 trillion in debt? how would that not cause mass layoffs?

>>50098346
>Imagine believing you will go on with your creature comforts, while others struggle to survive around you

This will cause desperation and turn normies into savages. You are not safe anon

>>50096364
Maybe the worst call i've seen on this site

>>50096495
And? They think they’re smarter and better than us, and that their shit doesn’t stink. They’ll kick the cam until it becomes dark matter and creates a black hole, then we get digital currencies and anal probes that detect co2 output

>>50097909
>This would be political suicide for Dems
voting doesn't matter dude. there is no such thing as political suicide. Biden could tax the middle class at 70% and mandate vaccines for all adults and force tranny training for everyone, and they would still win in a "landslide." Democrats are winning no matter what happens, voting is irrelevant

>>50097154
Seems like the smart take, especially if we separate CPI from the real inflation the plebs will be dealing with

>>50097679
Ah shit, I thought it was the opposite

>>50098092
They acting like inflation is the problem, meaning they’re more scared of recession

>>50097909
You still assume that unemployment numbers going up necessitates QE. It does not. This is yet another fundamentally flawed reason why Fed pivot ers will all get BTFO.

>>50098346
You’re not accounting for household debt load, inflation caused by lower fed rates, and the housing supply backlog that is going to drop kick and then curb stomp current home valuations

>>50098802
Thank you

>>50098958
That is true, I was trying to justify a potential scenario in which the Fed may want to use of QE. I hope they lay off QE for a while.

>>50098802
based and true.

Facebook i mean, fucking Facebook is laying off

>>50099081
Fair. One thing we all agree on is the Fed is retarded and they are screwed no matter what they do. They’ve kicked the van from year 2000 to 2008 to 2020 and the day of reckoning has arrived

>>50097863
Zestimates have been decoupled for a while since it's a lagging indicator using sales from months ago. I've been seeing houses sell for 10-15% less than the estimation unless they're in absolutely mint condition at a prime location.

>>50095611
Wtf it dropped yesterday and it drops again? Bear rally incoming?

>>50096364
Cool, now calculate the interest payments on 30 trillion at those rates. I'm sure doubling income taxes would be a popular policy and wouldn't hurt the economy though. Powell would be an American hero after that!

>>50097154
QE literally causes some people in poor countries to starve to death. Even rich countries get commodity price inflation. Why the hell would any of them want qe?

>>50098029
Toronto is a dystopian nightmare even compared to places like Jew York City.

>>50098346
>USA will be like Europe soon where 80% are a permanent renter underclass.
Do people believe such bullshit?

>>50101468
Why's Romania's so high?

>>50103087
outcome of communism.

>>50096209
fed being forced back into QE is good for us since it'll pump asset prices again.

>>50096209
What is QE?

I wasn't sure what to make of all the information in this thread, but the bond king says it's going to get worse, so I'm guessing we are going to bounce back into a bullmarket, this bushy eyebrowed fuck is always wrong.

>>50104672
quantitative easing, aka the federal reverse printing billions of dollars a month out of thin air to inject into the banking system to keep the bond market afloat.

>>50095611
>USG bond yield chart looks like a BSC shitcoin chart
This is fine.

>>50098961
Lol you have no clue. Anon is right and you literally are being priced out of owning a home as we speak. Lots of wishful thinking on this board today and you can smell the desperation of ppl who didn't buy something when they probably had the opportunity.

Dropping yield means 2 things:

1.) big money is parking cash in bonds as an alternative to stocks and other assets, because we learned from the Atlanta fed today about 2 quarters of GDP retraction (technical definition of recession). This demand drives down the yield on the bond.

2.) The fed sets the federal funds rate (overnight rate), which usually tracks with the one yr treasury but the 10 year treasury doesn't necessarily follow the fed.

3.) The 10 year historically tracks with the 30 year mortgage rate quite closely (picrel).

4.) Powell's aim of making housing and other assets cheaper won't work. But now he has plunged the US into recession.

5.) the yield curve is now flattening, which is not good. (short term overnight rate is higher than it should be, longer term rates set by the market aren't higher than the short term rates)... in a healthy economy you should expect an upwardly sloping yield curve where short term borrowing is cheaper than long term borrowing, and with a flat curve it disincentivizes short term borrowing altogether--not good

6.) Powell will try QE and helicopter money again... won't work

7.) After this Brainard will probably be the next Fed chair and she will institute a policy of Yield Curve Control advocated by Summers... (google it)

8) As with all economic crises in a fiat money regime, there probably is another big war coming before this is all said and done.

9) All of the things above play out within the timeline of fiat money as we know it dying off, but it is a controlled collapse and will be replaced by the new digital dollar regime.

Welcome to the future anons. Buy bitcoin.

Lol forgot to post pic. Also here's some links.

https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2017/october/increases-fed-funds-rate-impact-other-interest-rates

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/basics/06/invertedyieldcurve.asp

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/100814/why-10-year-us-treasury-rates-matter.asp

>>50107310
>As with all economic crises in a fiat money regime, there probably is another big war coming before this is all said and done.
m.onkeypox is gearing up to be covid 2.0 and that will bring about more lockdowns to slow money velocity and use as a scapegoat

>>50095611
>measly 3.5%
>even when 300% up
who the fuck even cares
what a pathetic return
why even bother?

>>50107406
Maybe so but it just kicks the can down the road a few more months. I think what I outlined above is inevitable.

>>50107310
>>50107450
if they restart QE again, thats the death of the dollar. they will never be able to raise rates ever again if/when they pivot. it would be full steam ahead toward hyperinflation. metals, miners, and crypto would moon.

>>50096364
It's literally just retail buying, they will of course lose money as usual.

>>50097679
It’s being bought by the Fed.

>>50107519
Yep.

https://entrepreneurshandbook.co/shut-it-down-15d230b28089

>>50107310
>Powell will try QE and helicopter money again
why should it mean that?

You guys are retarded, especially >>50096364
We had essentially a decade of QE and cheap money and we barely kept inflation at 2% due to the various deflationary pressures - aging population, increased efficiencies etc. These structural pressures still exist, they've just been overcome by the inflationairy pressures of food/energy price increases and supply chain issues. Once the inflationairy pressures subside, we'll be back to free money and booming asset prices otherwise we'd fall into deflation.

im not your sister
im not your brother
im not your nigger
im not your father
i fucked your mother
back in school
she sucked my cock cuz i was cool

>>50109862
An “economic slowdown” or a “recession” are just cute words in a fiat money regime for a failure for the money supply to expand enough. More money needs to be created through lending out new money through debt creation every year vs the year before in order to cover interest on loans already made, and when debt is paid money is destroyed. QE means the central bank compels the market to expand the money supply as a it’s buyer of last resort, buying maybe worthless financial assets from member banks (and now Blackrock) in exchange for new money being created, which gets deposited in member banks accounts as reserves. The reserves are then used by the member banks to make loans based on fractional reserve requirements, though the requirements themselves are much less constrictive for banks than was previously the case.

Make no mistake, the fed will try QE again, unsuccessfully this time. The question Powell should ask himself beforehand is whether QE will matter at all. Given the current predicament the fed has created, making loans isn’t profitable for banks, so why do it? They wouldn’t even if the fed deposited an infinite amount of reserves in their accounts.

The only option left to the fed is to try to control the entire yield curve (via negative short term rates and a positive yield curve) and compel banks to lend money that way too, thus creating new money and expanding debt and money supply again.

And if that doesn’t work, which it won’t, the government will allow the fed to change its charter where it can directly inject money into the economy, via CBDC digital dollars, bypassing member banks and lending requirements for money creation entirely.

This strategy of central banks unilaterally creating money has failed every single time it has ever been tried (Weimar Germany, several Latin American countries, others) and this time will be no different imo. It’s just a centrally planned command economy at that point.

>>50103111
Checked. TINA is my favorite girl.

>>50107519
I think they need that to create a new digital currency.
They need a reason for a reason and the only one would be if the dollar will become useless.

>>50098958
>You still assume that unemployment numbers going up necessitates QE. It does not
how do you solve them?

>>50110080
well is an aging population inflationary or deflationary? maybe it drives up wages because there are less workers?

and decoupling, deglobalization and friendshoring means immense capex over some years which should be inflationary because those robofactories need resources to build and increase demand

so I don't really know which pressures win out at the end. the bond market is slightly too manipulated to give a clear signal but seems to still suggest that we are looking at 2-3% inflation over the next decade

>>50110310
I almost agree with everything you say but the problem here, as is the problem with most cryptobro's logic is that they keep assuming that digital currency is right around the corner. it's not. A best case scenario for getting liftoff on something so massive would be *maybe* sometime in the early 2030s.

>>50099429
MMT is the art of can kicking.

>>50110080
"supply chain issues" is really just a buzzword to describe the externalities that come as a consequence of increased efficiencies. In almost every industry that "Efficiency" is coming from the elimination of the redundancies that insulated organizations from those sorts of problems.

>>50107310
>Welcome to the future anons. Buy bitcoin.
Bitcoin failed. No one is going to speculate on risky assets.

>>50095611
WHAT IS THE MMRI AT?

>>50098092
They keep talking of a "soft landing". This was never possible.

>>50101468
The WEF are literally planning this. Of course it's going to happen.