[ 3 / biz / cgl / ck / diy / fa / ic / jp / lit / sci / vr / vt ] [ index / top / reports ] [ become a patron ] [ status ]
2023-11: Warosu is now out of extended maintenance.

/biz/ - Business & Finance


View post   

File: 53 KB, 1000x743, 273418.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
50057432 No.50057432 [Reply] [Original]

As you all know, the inflation news on June 10 crashed all markets hard as the numbers for May 2022 came in. 8.6% YOY inflation.

Now if you look at the numbers from 2021 you'll see that YOY inflation actually rose by 0.4% from May to June 2021. From 5% to 5.4%.

That leads me to think that a lot of the May 21' inflation was baked into June 21'... May 21 was thus a GOOD month, which caused the dramatic 8.6% number. As gas prices seem to be flattening out I'm thinking that the likelihood that we will see more than 8.6% YOY on July 13 is unlikely... Meaning that inflation basically has peaked. This also makes a lot of sense given how hawkish the fed has been.

Historically, Sp500 has bottomed when inflation peaked. That's the bottom for tech stocks and crypto. THIS IS THE BOTTOM. If you manage to buy risk-on assets right before inflation peaked, you're golden.

This is the opportunity of a lifetime. Smart money might be realizing this trade as they get their own price data for the end of June. You have 13 days untill July 13 and new numbers come out that show inflation has peaked.

Ez trade

>> No.50057446

TLDR Bitcoin is going to 30k and Eth to 1800$ within the next 2-3 weeks.

>> No.50057450

Fake inflation numbers
We are around 14% unironically

>> No.50057468

>>50057450
Whatever, the normies only care about the CPI..

You're right though and given the m2 money supply bitcoin and crypto in general is extremely cheap.

>> No.50057473

You are a dumb faggot nigger we are crashing this market with no survivors but I guess there has to be one of us in the wreckage brother

>> No.50057499

>>50057473
Stay poor.
300 FAANG execs have quit their jobs to go all in on web3. Ethereum total market cap is lower than well's fargo right now. Undervalued af.

>> No.50057505

>>50057432
This is just the copium I needed, gonna take out the biggest loan I can to slurp everything

>> No.50057527

>>50057473
fuck off poorfag

>> No.50057541

>THIS IS THE BOTTOM
>BUY NOW

>> No.50057580

>peaked
That's cool but what if I told you it's going to be above 8% until the end of the year and we're fucked?

>> No.50057596

>>50057432
Move this thread to /gif/ as i'm masturbating to it and everyone here is a tranny.

>> No.50057640

>>50057580
doesn't matter, it still has peaked and that's the buy signal that wall street is waiting for.

>> No.50057678

>>50057432
I'm thinking that too

>> No.50057685
File: 8 KB, 256x256, A051C26D-39DD-4436-A33A-412715B41F7C.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
50057685

>>50057499
>Ethereum total market cap is lower than well's fargo right now. Undervalued af.
Imagine thinking an unscalable shitcoin invented by a pedo should be worth more than one of the world’s largest banks

>> No.50057709
File: 40 KB, 600x600, st,small,507x507-pad,600x600,f8f8f8.u3.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
50057709

it's starting...

>> No.50057789

https://app.truflation.com/

>> No.50057799

>>50057432
>peaked
No it hasn't you should consider taking your meds you delusional schizo.
https://www.clevelandfed.org/our-research/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting.aspx

>> No.50058045

>Fellow permabulls it's totally peaked go all in now!!!!!!!!!!!
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_gnd_dcus_nus_m.htm All data disagrees with you.

>> No.50058127

>>50057432
I agree with you but the inflation numbers will still be high for years to come. I believe this because you cannot (pretty much) double your money supply in a 2 year period where no new value is created without there being serious consequences in regards to the value of the money circulating. In essence there are now double the claims on the same sized pie of goods. Inflation is not transitory and it is a feature going forwards and due to the money printing/debasement inflation will be elevated for years if not decades, and that's assuming there are no wars (be it economic or military) with rising eastern powers or that rate rises don't create a debt crisis. I cannot seeing 3%+ being maintained with the crazy amount of leverage and bad debt in the system (or if they do and SHTF then the US needs to prepare for a civil war).

>> No.50058133

My news feed is constant "prepare for recession" messaging from wall street.
I know jewish tricks when I see them...

>> No.50058159
File: 295 KB, 1440x812, watchandlearn.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
50058159

>>50057432

>> No.50058173

>>50058127
>I believe this because you cannot (pretty much) double your money supply in a 2 year period
that never happened, browse /pol/ less

>> No.50058211

>>50057499
>300 FAANG execs have quit their jobs to go all in on web3
That means absolutely nothing. Careerists are following the money, big surprise.

>> No.50058214
File: 165 KB, 2444x1216, Screenshot from 2022-06-30 01-35-07.png [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
50058214

>>50058173
Ok

>> No.50058232

>>50057432
Why would inflation go down from here? The fed still has rates way too low. Even if they get rates up to 3%, that's not going to stop people from borrowing when inflation is above that.

>> No.50058248

So what about currencies like the Euro , Yen?
If the interest rate rises assuming it does , will that devalue other currencies / USD?

>> No.50058250

So many green id's guys holy shit

>> No.50058266

i used to buy mcchickens for $1 but they're $3 now so inflation is most likely 300% and they're just hiding it.. 8.6% my fat ass

>> No.50058267

>>50058045
I actually sold everything and opened big 3x shorts after seeing this

>> No.50058270

>>50058232

Because costs have hit a point where people quite simply can't afford to buy or do things

>> No.50058278

>>50058127
"years to come"
anon, as long as they keep increasing the rate, people will need to liquidate debts using asets and cash, escentially removing money from circulation.

>> No.50058299

>>50058232
The west has never been this leveraged before. 3% rate converts to 33% of all taxes being spent just to service government debt.

>> No.50058349

>>50057468
This. It literally doesn’t matter. It’s all about the psychology of the market and if they report the CPI as having peaked then we are unironically back. People will simply accept that they’ll be buying less and less food and they’ll be happy. Honestly it’s actually not going to be that bad for most people, people are fucking fat and eat way, way more than what they need so they could do with eating a bit less.

>> No.50058388

>>50058278
I don't see how liquidating positions removes money from circulation? It might drop asset prices but more money is being spent to meet the higher costs of consumable goods etc. Rate raises will also increase the cost of producing goods, reduce competition in sectors further increasing prices.

>> No.50058437

>>50058388
mmm you know money gets minted out of thin air every time you use your credit card? thats how the system works

if you buy a 600k house using credit
-600K USd gets minted
-The seller receives it, and can spend it right now
-you get a 600k debt

so yes, forcing people to pay debt erases money from circulation, thats why they raise the rates

>> No.50058448

>>50058266
Based McChicken price index user

>> No.50058501

>>50058437
But raising rates in no way forces repayment of underlying debt (it would argue it increases probability of default and a run on banks). It slows economic activity because it increases the burden of the debt?

>> No.50058507

>>50058437
sure, that explanation was only superficial, its mostly fictional money in some balance sheet, but imagine every single person and entity using credit up their ass. thats how bubbles are formed. like those tik toks of homeowners having 80M in assets, all from debt, while collecting rent.
>get 80M in debt to buy 100 houses, helping the bubble
>rent them hoping you can pay the houses before the crash
>goverment raises rates
>companies shut down, get insolvent, people lose jobs and move back to their parents
>they can no longer pay those houses because they have no renters
>they have to liquidate
> housing market crashes

>> No.50058528

Truflation is also reading that inflation has peaked

>> No.50058577

>>50058507
>> housing market crashes
I wish, but this is good for me so it wont fucking happen

>> No.50058594

>>50058501
we are shrimps, a difference of 1% in our credit cards dont mean shit, but imagine companies with balance sheets in the millions, banks, and all kind of financial entities, all running on debt, because thats what rich people do. and yes, it does force payment because you know everything will get more tight and dollar will become stronger vs all the other financial assets. you might argue that its the slow economic activity the one that causes the company to break, but its their degenerate balance sheets.

>> No.50058615

>>50058577
its already showing signs in some states, first time in years that more houses enter the market to be sold, that exit it. keep an eye open.

>> No.50058666

>>50058501
Bro do yourself a favor and put the econ books down and listen to what these guys are telling you. You are in fucking clown world. When they announce CPI is lower than previous month number, market goes up. Thats all there is to it

>> No.50058695

>>50057432
Well, I guess that explains lunac pump.

>> No.50058725

>>50058594
>>50058666
Good points. Thank you guys for a non retarded discussion on this board for once.

>> No.50058743

>>50058666
Checked. The problem that people like him and so many other people do is they think things through too much. You can tell who actually participates in the “real world” vs. those who are NEETs. I don’t mean that to be mean, but it’s the truth. And what I mean is in the “real world” most people are fucking retards and have no idea how anything works. Most people are completely on autopilot as NPCs so once JPow says inflation has peaked it’s over, problem solved and the world will collectively declare victory.

>> No.50058769

>>50058133
So this is the bottom?

>> No.50058804

>>50058349
How did the market react at peak inflation in the 70s

>> No.50058805

>>50058769
the tldr thesis seems to be: inflation peak = market pump

>> No.50058808
File: 7 KB, 355x142, yousunkmybulgarian.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
50058808

>>50058769

>> No.50058918

>>50057432
>You have 13 days untill July 13 and new numbers come out that show inflation has peaked.
If there's another 75bps then no it hasn't... which means you're wrong.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x7SWEO1skeE

>> No.50058986

>>50058769
>>50058808
Merci mes amis

>> No.50060824

>>50058805
I've been waiting a long time for this pump, finally I can get rid of my qom bags

>> No.50061253
File: 1 KB, 125x62, itdiscaful.jpg [View same] [iqdb] [saucenao] [google]
50061253

>>50057432
Peak inflation is always 10% every 30 minutes, and he not even close yet!