/biz/ - Business & Finance

Alright bros. Serious discussion.

Let's share where we see uranium going in the next 3-6 months. The s&p is fully in a bear market with lots of room to fall.

Do we think it's a wise strategy to pull out of uranium in the mean time and wait a couple months and then go back in? It's already gone down so far but the broad markets gave so much further to fall. I'd like to specifically discuss uranium. Oil is already possibly putting in a short term pullback but we all know it will ultimately resume higher.

RedWolf up in this bitch and I'm gonna be posting charts. Let's get a serious discussion going on where we think uranium is going short term. Is it correlated to the s&p? Is it correlated to energy?

>>49914779
Here's why I'm posing the question.....

>>49914779
I expect 20-30% more of a haircut until we're at the bottom (in general), but I wouldn't rule out a 50% dip if things get really nasty. For myself, I have a few weak positions in various miners, but I'm happy to hold UUUU. I've been dcaing it and every time it drops significantly, I buy 100 shares, and then I sell CCs against it on the upswing. Was considering a protective put over the next few months to make sure I don't lose any value but didn't put the numbers in. Would be happy to see it at $2-3 to buy into a large position on it.

But in particular, I'm watching the gold/silver ratio (mint ratio) to see it breaches 100, at which point I'll be checking it daily. During both the 2008 and 2020 crashes, it peaked around 120 or something a day or two ahead of the actual market crashes, and was a strong indicator that money was flowing out of equities and into gold as a hedge against uncertainty.

Two bits of news from Junior mining network of interest!

Goliath Resources out with some fantastic intercepts in core! However no assays yet! Those are a ways out.
https://www.juniorminingnetwork.com/junior-miner-news/press-releases/2210-tsx-venture/got/123374-goliath-drills-multiple-broad-intervals-of-mineralization-up-to-95-5-meters-in-first-2022-hole-on-golddigger-golden-triangle-b-c.html

Guanajuato Silver finds high grades in old tailings at their El Cubo project!
https://www.juniorminingnetwork.com/junior-miner-news/press-releases/1961-tsx-venture/gsvr/123534-gsilver-discovers-high-grade-historical-tailings-material-at-el-cubo-assays-727-gpt-ageq-over-1-2m-and-711-gpt-ageq-over-1-0m.html

>>49914968
>During both the 2008 and 2020 crashes, it peaked around 120 or something a day or two ahead of the actual market crashes
Sorry slightly incorrect, it rose like 20-25% over 2 or 3 months, but was a good predictor for the major indexes (they seem to move inversely)

Just fuck my shit up

>>49914968
Similar situation. I’ve got an assortment of miners and a few more solid ones like Hecla and Barrick just to hedge the more degenerate ones with something a little more solid once more big money starts trying to protect itself a bit. I’m almost certain why we haven’t seen just a giant red dick as opposed to this gradual decline is because retail is still trying to wrap its head around the concept of a bear market and keeps slurping.

As far as uranium, I’m feeling blessed it’s getting back into that $3 buying range (UUUU specifically) and feel like my greed is getting the best of me waiting for sub 3.

quick before i pass out, did anyone else see Surge Coppers latest release? Ootsa looks extremely tasty but actually funding a mine right now for that scale of a project is going to be difficult.

>>49915081
It's funny, yesterday had a nice 10% rally or something, so I chose it to be the day I write out a CC against the next expiry (Jul 15th?) and looking at daily vol/OI stuff, it seems there was over 4000 contracts written with the same strike and intent as me, so it seems that I had the same mindset as the institutions did, anyways.
I am excited to see it drop to $2-$3 as well. I recently got a raise at my shitty wagie job and I plan to save up a lot of money over the summer so I have more dry powder as the market weakens. I feel like we're still early, so I expect to wait 2-3 years or so, but it's going to be comfy since I have some direction now.

Now if I was smart, I'd be following macro news on forex factory and doing more DD on the company but whatever

>>49914800
So first of all, Gary savage called a top on oil stocks Friday and as soon as he did I verified the information and completely sold out of oil. About $70,000 I pulled. Here's the video. He even compares it to uranium. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XW7sIyptL7I&ab_channel=GarySavage

His reasoning was that oil stocks are so far stretched over the 200 DMA and in particular the 200 week MA. We saw this same thing happen withy uranium and we all got ass raped so I wasn't fucking around this time.

I was heart broken as fuck when oil stayed green on Thursday but wouldn't you know it today oil went sub $110 and oil stocks dumped 10%.

Attached is a uranium chart for demonstration. I'm using URA as it's a good benchmark for the sector.

>>49915177
So as you can see here every time price gets stretched above the 200 day moving average ethe price always corrects back down. This is the uranium chart. Currently you can see the pink support line has been broken and I have the green line as a potential bottom. However it could also return to pre covid lows as the fed pulls money from the system, something to keep in mind.


Back when this happened with uranium I got raped because I ignored this warning. I said "Eh, who cares if it's over the 200 day ma. Uranium is so fuckin bullish it's gonna just defy fundamentals."

Now here we are with Oil. It's bullish as fuck but the chart is screaming the same thing. That's why I didn't fuck around this time. I sold out and will buy back in a couple weeks. I think probably three weeks. For price to correct.

Now here's the oil chart on the daily.

>>49915232
>>49915177
Didn't Biden recently announce a Federal gas tax holiday or something? That might be a good signal/catalyst in addition to what you've posted, not to mention the dip today. Personally I hope it opens green, because I would like to short it... but are you talking strictly the price of crude, or companies as well? There is a correlation but they are not strictly coupled

>>49915285
Here's the oil chart on the weekly. It's even worse. Not the RSI is only just beginning to enter over sold with the yellow D line beginning to point down.

>>49915299
Oil is currently showing a pull back and the equities are pulling back even harder. When I say "oil" i'm saying strategies related to oil stocks.

>>49915336
Also doesn't the RSI moving into oversold territory actually act as a bullish indicator here, since it means people might buy into a position?

>>49915299
Here's the Athabasca oil stock for example. Look how far this mother fucker is stretched over the 200 and look how hard it's dumping. This was my largest oil position.

>>49915360
It does to some people and to others it doesn't. To me, it depends. If it enters an embedded status, which is three days in which the RSI is over sold on both the yellow and red lines, then a drastic drop is imminent and will keep going until the red line emerges from embedded reading.

If it goes to oversold and begins to bounce away from over sold on the rsi it's a good chance it's a bottom.

I was taught to trade by Ira Epstein and that's what he teaches.

Here's a good example of an over sold embedded reading in action on the gold chart.

>>49915465
I'm not a very active trader and I've lost a good % since I started trading (didn't take profits, and didn't paper trade riskier stuff when starting), so stuff like that is helpful, thanks.

I'm somewhat fond of the Schaff Trend Cycle (STC) to see where trends stop. Also been trying to learn fib retracements a bit better, so if I did this right, oil will probably dip to 85-92/bbl and consolidate for a bit until the trend stops.

Alright now here's the S&P. Still much more downside to go. The question is, do we sell out of our uranium stocks in the meantime?

>>49915543
I don't know everything. Fibonacci's for example I don't know.

>>49915547
Oh that's interesting. There was increasing volume in the years leading up to the 2008 crash, and then an obvious decline as people exited the market.
I heard that HFT is a problem nowadays. Curious to see that the volume on trades these days is actually lower, despite having more computing power and more proliferation on HFTs than when things were at a frenzy.

>>49915622
Excellent point. I have not looked at volume this entire time. I will go back over everything and apply volume to the analysis.

>>49914968
I agree. Probably a 20-30% drop from here in uranium if it correlates to the stock market.

>>49915945
Are there any volume strategies that you like to use? I've seen a few day traders toss around VWAP and such. I don't know much beyond increasing/decreasing volume can help to confirm a trend

>>49915052
Excellent.

>>49915964
I don't have any volume strategies I use. I just pay attention to volume. Sell offs on small volume I ignore as it's usually retail selling.

This thread is way too fucking early. Anyway give me some redpills on GDXJ.

Thanks for the DD red

>>49916939
Billions of oz sitting in vaults. Useless shiny rock only sitting at its current price because retards think it’s going to reset the monetary policy of the world. Better off investing in Pokémon cards. Own physical gold and silver. But Jesus what is the bull case on owning miners. The entire economy is on a planned demolition course. The time for betting on speculative miners is long long gone.

>>49916995
>Own physical gold and silver
I have both PM and GDXJ desu. Reason I'm asking is because I'm thinking of buying more GDXJ when it starts to bottom out even further.

>>49916989
Classy photo. What car is that man?

>>49915547
The time to take profits was two months ago
It has already dumped quite a lot and I'm looking to add to it if it continues dumping, but trying to swing it at this point is not really that helpful
Good heads up on oil though, I'll take some profits tomorrow if I can

>>49917312
you're right but this convo was for retards that missed it like me.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KBKvJzKQgmc&ab_channel=UraniumInsider

Latest uranium insider.

>>49917333
Checked
I don't swing my uranium positions, just add to it if it's near my cost basis
The upside is so high in uranium that I don't want to risk missing the train for a few 1.5x here and there
In comparison oil will go higher yes but the market is big enough that it won't do sudden moonshots and back

>>49913208
Nice!
Do you know if there's been any development in their struggle with Imperial Metals regarding the mill? Or is it still at a standstill while IM tries to stay afloat

when is the next US CPI release?

Not only does the greater markets getting fucked imply a bigger pullback, we could be seeing an artificial one even if we weren't really going to pull back with the big picture organically.
We're now resting on supports all across the spectrum in Uranium with some starting to break through it.
If you were a hedgie or some kind of a major holder what would you do?
This is too good of an easy opportunity so I'd get in touch with my big Uranium owner friends and I'd sell majors through those supports to spook the prices lower.
This is the point where even the stronger hands are starting to get weak and if you can force the prices under those big supports, it's starting to shake off a whole lot of folks even with a lot of conviction.

I think it's way too late to sell, you should have sold at latest two months ago. The markets after all are unpredictable and you might in a matter of few days be left chasing them.
But we're going to get one hell of a last chance buying opportunity coming up and I hope the market is going to crab for months at those lower prices, because there are so many things I want to buy.
Been looking to get some UUUU for about $3.5 and Denison for $0.8 for a while now. If they go lower and I see my portfolio get completely raped I'll be even happier.
I missed out on buying these when they were cheap and now's my opportunity to get on the making it train.

>>49920165
i don't understand how you guys pick which uranium company to buy when they're all trash on paper. awful books.

i've been reading about mining investing lately. apparently it is completely normal and common for these little junior miners to have significant delays, large drops in share prices, extended periods of waiting with no news, and frustrated shareholders. the investors who just sit tight and wait are usually the ones who make the money. and all of the stuff i'm reading is older, so it doesn't take into account "covid" or the supply chain disruptions we're experiencing right now, so there are even more headaches and speedbumps for junior miners than ever before. i know a lot of us are pissed that our mining portfolios have dropped 50+% in the last 1-2 years, and some of them have not made much progress or shared much information, but apparently this is common for this sector. the only thing you can really do is just sit tight if it's a company you believe in

>>49920237

Doesn't matter how they're on paper because they've essentially been in limbo for the last +10 years and haven't done shit.
There's a good reason why the number of Uranium miners went from 600 to 60 during that time, it simply wasn't profitable to mine the stuff and general sentiment has been against nuclear until now. It's a miracle there are any uranium miners in business to be honest.
What matters is what they have in the ground and where the companies are located.
Pick anything US based because they're safe and the companies are without a doubt going to be sucking on the government tit as the US pumps more and more money into domestic energy production.
I'd put Canada based companies into that same basket too even if they won't get direct gov money.

Keep in mind that the entire Uranium sector is worth like 30-40 billion at the moment.
It really doesn't matter what your books are like when big money starts coming in and even a meager investment pumps up the company value by 10x.

>>49920374
>the investors who just sit tight and wait are usually the ones who make the money.
You assume there must be money to be made and some investors must be making it.

both are retarded assumptions.

My biggest fear is while the market drops we keep buying more commodities and everyone else is buying blue chips. Then years later once the market recovers the blue chips make big growth, meanwhile we never had our super cycle. It's unbelievable how we go down on good days and continue to go down on bad days.

>>49920414
>It really doesn't matter what your books are like when big money starts coming in and even a meager investment pumps up the company value by 10x.
It does if the company goes broke before that can happen because their business model is trash and they can't get a line of credit.

Patriot bros... we did it.

I appreciate the Uranium DD fellas. I don't know enough about the sector to contribute but it's great stuff.

>>49917312
Aight bros sold off 40% of my ATH, maybe I'll rotate some of that into PEN and VMY if they dump a few more cents further

https://www.juniorminingnetwork.com/junior-miner-news/press-releases/2074-tsx-venture/rio/123642-rio2-provides-update-of-fenix-gold-environmental-assessment-process.html

>Rio2 notes the Environmental Assessment Service (SEA) published last night the “Informe Consolidado de Evaluación” (Consolidated Evaluation Report) with the recommendation to reject the EIA for the Fenix Gold Project. There are two key considerations to note in the report:

>It has been alleged that Fenix Gold has not provided enough information during the evaluation process to eliminate adverse impacts over the chinchilla, guanaco, and vicuña

Damn. They even got financing for the project already, I thought they were into construction at this point but guess not. South America looking worse and worse by the day.

https://www.juniorminingnetwork.com/junior-miner-news/press-releases/1033-tsx/ar/123630-argonaut-gold-reaffirms-magino-s-estimated-cost-to-completion-and-announces-us-250-million-binding-debt-commitment-and-proposed-equity-financing-to-fully-finance-the-magino-construction-project.html

Big equity raise inc for Argonaut, stock way down. Capex estimate now C$920M for a 10ktpd OP project that will do a bit above 100koz per year.
Not sure if there's something specific to Canada, haven't seen these huge cost overruns elsewhere.

>>49914779
>Let's get a serious discussion going on where we think uranium is going short term. Is it correlated to the s&p?
it seems to be trading up and down with the general stock market for the past couple of months. i can't tell wtf uranium is doing

>>49915177
trading in and out of your oil positions during the commodity is going to get you burned.

how are we doing polybros?

>>49924145
why are we pumping i wonder

fucking fed buying mass amounts of bonds again

>>49924256
I can't wait for our 10x

>>49923503
Aaaaand it just another dropped fifteen cents after I took profit. Thanks Red for the heads up

Wtf is going on with GUSH oil prices are barely moving

>>49920165
>I think it's way too late to sell
Many such cases. I'm stuck bagholding like usual, but I'm looking forward to getting a nice entry on UUUU as well.

previous thread
>>49828610

>>49915177
I have the same feeling, I'm waiting for the next bounce up to $110 and taking profits

>>49924921

Yeah and you can see it still has some ways to go. The 200 DMA is my target. It's already pierced the 100 day support.

>>49926822
chart forgot

aaaaah 30% gains over 6 months and it's gone in 3 weeks
how is this allowed

>>49926822
Oil doing the same thing. Target $94

>>49917301
https://zodiackiller.net/community/ted-kaczynski/did-ted-k-own-a-car-when-he-lived-in-berkeley/
Looks like it was an old Pontiac

>>49926939
and it's even worse on the weekly. Athabasca could go all the way down to 63 cents with $1.40, $1.10, and .77 being supports on the way down.

>>49926990
kek.

>>49927013
I thought that was bob. Lol

Latest Gary Savage

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7_fWt7xWgGE&ab_channel=GarySavage

Fuck. Got rekt on uranium and PMs. Guess it's time to sell for a 23% loss bros. Just kill me.

>>49927342
Uranium insider is saying not to sell and is expecting a spot price of uranium over $100 in the next 3-6 months

New Found Gold just dipped to a 12 month low US$4.82. Threw in the last of what little dry powder I had left. I need a beer

What are you guys opinion in Starr Peak Mining?
I have seen it being shilled as a huge upside bet.
I want to buy some small junior miners and i dont mind to lose money but what i dont want is to get rugged

>>49927342
OMG it's down, time to sell!

>>49915346
All in NRGU now, let’s go boys. Everyone thought this was an 08 repeat to the day, but investment is restricted this time. And no black swans have imploded, other than imaginary crypto bullshit.

>>49927359
>>49927505
I'm not gonna sell but here's the thing that's bothering me bros. HOW WAS I THIS WRONG? I thought commodity gang was going to be the place to be and we were unshakable. Wtf is going on? Feelsbadman

https://ceo.ca/@accesswire/blue-lagoon-kicks-off-2022-phase-two-drill-and-exploration

Lagoon news after a long silence.

>>49926135
I suspect some political bullshit is scaring the big boys out of oil stocks. Betting against their herd consensus was a winner for 2 years, think there’s another opportunity here?

>>49927342
it's brutal lately but those who can stomach the temporary loss on paper and hold through it will make it

>>49927672

Come on now, you pretty much bought after most of these stocks had done like 10-30x climbs. It's no surprise whatsoever that this drop was coming. We might fall right back to 2020 prices and I hope we do.
I bought in at higher price too, but I always knew there was a great possibility for an immense amount of downside.
There's no such thing as a straight line up or down in the markets and this is a multi year play we're looking at here, not some random shitcoin that's going to pull 50x in a month and then die off.
You better get used to the idea that your portfolio might be 80% in the red during this. We're still very much coupled with the greater markets.
But this is where the winners are made, you buy when stuff isn't popular and hold.
Keep in mind that if you're feeling like this, there's tens of thousands of people feeling that exact same way and they're currently being played out of these markets and that's what the big guys are counting on.
I'm sure it's going to get a lot worse before it gets better, hell we might go down and stay there until mid 2023.
I'll be buying all the way down, because the fundamentals in this market are solid and it's already been shown clearly that there's a lot of momentum behind this when the market really wants to start moving.

>>49927342
>>49927672
Can't hear you, too comfy with my position. I'm long on UUUU and writing CCs, meanwhile I have a dozen 2024 leaps on DNN and UEC, which all move the same as UUUU. So I can crab indefinitely, or it can go down and I get more, or it pops off and I sell. Honestly, the one thing that worries me is not being able to do this forever, because uranium will pop off eventually.

>I thought commodity gang was going to be the place to be and we were unshakable
Commodities are the first to recover after a downturn, and then the prices ripple through the rest of the sectors (eg producers, manufacturers, retailers). Commodities are not immune to a downturn and are also the first to fail. Plus, if you want to accept large gains, you have to accept the possibility of a large loss. Nobody can time the market but you can mitigate it somewhat.

Also, keep an eye on the mint ratio, as soon as gold spikes and the ratio breaks 100-120, we'll be in hot water within a few weeks.

>>49928131
Forgot my pic.
I had $5000 on meme stocks in 2020 and didn't take profits, so this is what I have left from that amount. Still have other positions too.

>first it was tankers
>then it was silver miners
>then it was uranium
so what are we gona fuck up next?

>>49921583
>they can't get a line of credit.

We're going back to negative rates fairly soon after FED pivots, after that money cost will be nil or below nil to be exact.

cmmg newb here. What do people think about Thorium? Could it possibly replace Uranium?

Couple weeks late but Id like to recommend to anyone who hasn't already heard it, the Palisades Gold radio interview with Adam Hamilton released on 7th June. He explains how rate rising cycles are actually usually good for gold, counterintuitively. He has done some research on previous rate rise cycles and how they more often than not end in big rises for gold - furthermore the best performing cycles for gold closely resemble the one we’re currently in.

Relevant articles from his blog…

>Big Inflation Will Spur Gold
https://www.zealllc.com/2022/bginspgd.htm

>Gold Thrives in Rate-Hike Cycles
https://www.zealllc.com/2022/gdtrvrhc.htm

I believe there is too much debt in the economy for the fed to be able to rise rates far enough to dent inflation - instead they will need to pivot before too long and when the market wakes up to this, gold and silver will begin their next legs up. Hang on in there lads.

>>49927672
It's a bear trap, not really hard to "get" it

>>49927934
I'm fixing to buy this dip today I think. Seems out of left field with crude prices barely budging. Biden's an old bitch he can't get anything done

>>49927863
Hopefully they get some good hits here

>>49928575
I expect a November republican take over to pave the way for investment in OnG, if they can manage to kill ESG somehow.

>>49928623
Maybe, maybe not, I think ESG is here to stay but i think oil is going to peak hard in the next 3 months. No way it doesn't. Too many people are complacent in the "oop, rates are going up, guess that means oil is gonna go down with a recession" and ignoring the fact that we are scraping the bottom of the barrel for oil as it is.

Likelyhood of a commodities super cycle vs likelyhood of a return to normal market?

>>49928669
I agree my homie. I had been holding uco waiting for a bottom of the cushing squeeze but I ended up rolling all of it into Nrgu during this dip

>>49927359
don't utilities still have more than 12 months of inventory?

>>49928678
Normal market hasn't existed in a long time.

>>49928918

>>49928432
People keep on bringing that stuff up as if it's some kind of a viable alternative at the moment.
Thorium reactors are even more speculative than anything hydrogen related and that stuff is already pretty damn speculative.
Ask yourself this, how many Thorium reactors are being built at the moment and how many current reactors outside few research reactors run on Thorium. Answer is 0 to both of them and that should tell you everything you need to know.
You'd be investing into that tech so early that you may as well not invest at all, because there's no telling if it's 20 years or 60 years until those start popping up as a viable concept.
Also since we're on the cusp of a nuclear renaissance, you'd be crazy to invest into a completely speculative subject over the one that's right in front of you and about to pull insane numbers.

>>49929076
So what's the play? Can I just keep stacking URA? I was bag holding UUUU for a while

>>49929166
the play is to wait until we see at least some trends reversal from the broad market since uranium still hasn't decoupled yet

>>49929166
Play is very simple, you just keep on unloading all of your paychecks into commodities and then wait 5-10 years.
I like the slightly bigger Uranium guys myself like UUUU, DNN and such because they already have everything they need and just need time to go up.
I also have some Encore and little bit of Azincourt for smaller plays. Will probably add UEC to the mix too after I have increased my UUUU bags when it goes under $5 and trends towards $3.

I generally get most of the logic behind investing in commodities during a time of inflation.
But what I don't quite is why some people advise owning commodities when the rate hikes stop/slow down? Wouldn't it make more sense to just own tech stocks/btc if they reverse rate hikes and start QE again?

>>49929325
>I like the slightly bigger Uranium guys myself like UUUU, DN
I like them because they're optionable

>>49929504
>Wouldn't it make more sense to just own tech stocks/btc if they reverse rate hikes and start QE again?
yeah probably

>Goldventure sold his entire Gogold position
OHNONONO THEY BOUGHT HIS BAGS

>>49929625
>yeah probably
so /smg/ was right all along. feels bad.

>>49929504
For a brief period, yes. But the general idea is they're maxed out on the QE tap because of high debt. If they use it again inflation ramps up again. Which makes for a weak business environment, stocks crab while commodities trend.

>>49929504

If you were one of the bigger players, would you trust the cheap money to continue for a significant enough of time for it to make sense to start piling back into tech?
We're at a point where the banks can't stop inflation from making increasingly larger waves in the consumer prices, the era of cheap money is over for now.
They can't just suddenly go
>Okay we did some paltry amount of tightening for the last year or two, now we can go back to printing more
Because printing is exponential in nature and very soon we're going to see $20 gas at the pump and $30 bread.
Salaries aren't going to keep up with that by any metric. Will it destroy demand? Yes, but then they're killing demand by not bringing up the supply but instead limiting the demand through crushing consumption power which leaves the underlying problems intact.
Also earnings are going to go down the shitter too and eventually it's potentially hello hyperinflation as they have to print more and more and possibly start giving out stimmies on the regular, because everyone is neck deep in debt.

If I was one of the bigger players I wouldn't risk trusting the banks to print more and more money for the coming years to prop up the markets, because it's not sustainable.
They might print for a while and then go back to tightening, which will fuck up your investments to crab world.
It's simply safer option to rotate all of the big bux into commodities while they're still piss cheap. Real things will win in the end regardless of whatever momentary volatility we have in them.

Natural gas rugged today I lost $500 from a leveraged bull position lol fuck my life

>>49929948
>Because printing is exponential in nature and very soon we're going to see $20 gas at the pump and $30 bread.
That's okay, they'll just do a reverse split on currency and say it's worth 1/10th as much, then we'll be back to $3 bread and $2 gas!

>>49929959
>leveraged

Found your problem there bud

I'm trying to build a portfolio of 10 to 20 junior miners that have 100× potential. I realize most will go to zero, but if I can just get a couple right... that's my strategy. Any tickers I should look into? Thanks in advance.

>>49926939
>Oil doing the same thing. Target $94
Do you think Nat Gas is going to follow it? Seems odd swinging oil stocks but not the gas ones as well
>>49927359
>Uranium insider is saying not to sell
Has he or would he ever say to sell? I'm not doubting his expertise or even him specifically, but I can't imagine anyone in that position ever saying "alright guys pack up and come back in a couple months". That kind of public statement seems like suicide and the worst you'll ever hear them say is "Just hold we'll get back up eventually"
GM sort of did it recently I suppose but he's never been dedicated to one particular sector like Justin

>>49930144
Normally even with leverage I don't see big swings like this, I have no idea what happened. Other than indexes is there any other resources to see where oil and gas is going in the short term?

>>49930434
> I have no idea what happened

Leverage happened

>>49930470
High risk high reward :^)
But also high chance of getting owned

>>49930495
Some learn lesson sooner than others. Your money bud :^)

>>49914968
I fucking hope so, I didn't have time to accumulate so if they go down I still have a chance for 20-30 baggers

>>49929504
>Wouldn't it make more sense to just own tech stocks/btc if they reverse rate hikes and start QE again?
BTC is worthless. Tech isn't going back to bubble territory again for a long time because they can't turn on the money printer to the same degree that caused this insane bubble because of inflation. We're in for stagflation and stocks generally don't do very well in that environment, gold does.
>>49930263
You would probably have to go with explorers to get 100 baggers and those seem like a crapshoot and in general a pretty bad investment actually if you aren't some geologist or something.

>>49930656
>Tech isn't going back to bubble territory again for a long time because they can't turn on the money printer to the same degree that caused this insane bubble because of inflation.

This is where you a re wrong bucko, you make an assumption people sound in mind and body are running the show.

Think about most absurd solution to problem you can think of and then make an even worse decision based on that.

Why not wheat,why do u guys only like uranium

>>49930656
>because they can't turn on the money printer to the same degree that caused this insane bubble because of inflation
Pretty sure that's what everyone thought the previous few times they turned it on.
Only thing I've learnt from watching how these fucks react to an economic fuckup is that they don't know what the fuck they're doing.

>>49930717
People were also saying that they would never do QT or raise rates above 1 or 2% at the most and they are well on their way to do that. This institution isn't run by the AOC squad yet. They will allow inflation to run way hotter than 2% for a while, perhaps a very long time, but they are not going to let it just get out of hand Turkey style. Not until the country has deteriorated further, which will be a while.

>>49930762
>Pretty sure that's what everyone thought the previous few times they turned it on.
Someone probably said that, but the difference is inflation like I mentioned. Inflation during the last pivot in 2018 was nothing compared to today, as long as there were no inflation they would have continued but now it's different. If they just keep doing extremely lose monetary policy then we will obviously have hyper inflation and that is just extremely unlikely at this point in time because they can easily avoid it and it's definitely not worth it for anyone.

>>49930837
>People

Idiots not people.

You can clearly see it on rates chart dating back from 1990's that it's a descending triangle pattern they won't even get to 3% and will pivot. Probably by the end of the year.

>>49930941
Treasury yields already broke through decades long meme lines. 3% isn't far from consensus though, could be.

>>49931076
They could play this silly game before when they could tighten in US and print in other parts of the world and vice versa. Now there is no safe heaven to draw from. Japan is dead in the water. EU... waste of words. China is made up numbers all together. Who will save FED this time?

>>49931192
Noone will, which is why they will have to keep policy somewhat tight for a while which means the economy is going to be super shit. We could see Japan style no growth for decades in both EU and the US. Demographics is a big bubble as well, lots of old people now a drain on the economy and more and more less productive and destabilizing non-whites.

>>49914673
Oh, noes, natty broes! Hope you got your KOLD on.
$3

>>49916995
most of the speculation rests on the assumption that major miners simply dont have the inventory and M&As with Jr miners will be the answer.

Similarly there are cycles independant of the current macro that imply gold at least will be going up. Electrification and Green energy policy are still in vogue and dominate the interests of smart money.

dont pay too much mind to the market at the moment and build cash positions in your trading accounts for now.

>>49931308
>they will have to keep policy somewhat tight

But they can't, debt will not allow it to. The thing you saw in Japan was allowed to last that long because rest of the world aka USA was keeping the tumor alive.

Now the whole body is ridden with sepsis. Even amputation at this stage is too little to late.

does anyone have any thoughts on AMC buying a large position in Hycroft Mining a few months ago? smart decision? stupid? will other large companies follow suit?

What are some good broad commodities index/etfs to look at? Cashed up since January and never touched commodities before (used to be a crypto/vtsax barbell boy), want to start dipping my toes in. Or should I wait for a bigger dip? Don't really know anything about them other than I hear they're where you want to be during a recession.

Oroco bros got too cocky

>bought the UUUU and Gush dip today
Good day for being in cash

>>49930263
Honestly how much money are you really working with? This seems like one of those things that sound good on paper but are essentially like building a portfolio of diverse shitcoins. I don't have any good feedback beyond that. Other than GOAU maybe (not a miner but I am using it in my IRA for gold exposure like a dipshit)

>>49932240
Honestly I'm buying GUNR and forgetting about the rest

>>49932329
Also vid from I hate miners guy.
https://youtu.be/XQIHZAFp4OQ

>>49932384
Remember oil bros didn't listen to Jim Cramer and sold the top.

>>49932420
Silver "chads" are always wrong. While I am buying a miniscule amount of silver, I think these people are mentally ill retards and deserved to be shamed. Yet again I think /pmg/ is nothing more than a place for people to blindly buy metals, larp about the end of the world, and post their stacks for clout.

>>49932329
>>49932384
Never understood why he loves that shitty Mexican copper developer so much. He doesn't even sound very knowledgeable when he speaks about it. He probably just loves it because he got in very cheap and it was one of his few successes. His why I hate mining stocks vids are pretty good though.

Bros I'm super heavy in silver stocks right now

What's the chances that the Fed is able to contain inflation and the price of gold and silver collapse.

Where do you guys see gold and silver the next 1-2 years?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-23/new-squeeze-hits-london-metal-market-with-zinc-spreads-spiking?utm_source=google&utm_medium=bd&cmpId=google&sref=Kf0MXoXH
>THE PREMIUM FOR SPOT ZINC OVER FUTURES SPIKED ON THURSDAY TO THE WIDEST SINCE 1997

>>49933210
>What's the chances that the Fed is able to contain inflation and the price of gold and silver collapse.
Tell me how. We're 10+% inflation right now.

>>49933230
Inflation could slow down with the feds rate increases?
Would gold only go up if they lower rates again, in a scenario of economic collapse?

>>49933230
Lies and deception, the usual way by (((them)))

>>49933210
They can’t raise rates because pic related

>>49933307
Sexplain please

>>49933285
>Inflation could slow down with the feds rate increases?
Rates need to be 15+% to fight inflation. Right now, they're pissing on a volcano.

>Would gold only go up if they lower rates again, in a scenario of economic collapse?
Nothing "only go up". Also, yes, Gold goes up when shit happens. If your theory was right, Gold would be 35$ right now.

>>49933306
When you can't feed yourself, you don't hear anything.

I have no doubt we win in the end. Only question is for how long they will drag this situation. I don't mind, more shares for me.

>>49933210
>What's the chances that the Fed is able to contain inflation and the price of gold and silver collapse.
Inflation coming down some is unironically priced in and won't collapse gold. Keep in mind that production cost is above $1500/oz for many producers all in, and even the larger producers are close to that when everything is included, pre tax. Gold price never dumps so low that everyone goes bankrupt and mines stop producing.
Just having inflation significantly above 2% for a while is good for gold, we don't need hyperinflation. Also political instability and a cold war escalating between the east and the west will be good for gold. And stocks doing poorly because the economy is shit will be good for gold.

>>49932365
>>49932365
I recently bought 100 at $5.60, bringing my average down to about $6.00.
I'm waiting for it to breach about $4.80 before buying another 100-200 shares

>>49933851
>>49932365
>>49914779
Where do you see UUUU in a year or 2?
Could it go 10x?

God damn. I don't need the cash I've invested into commodity equities, but this seems bizarrely brutal, especially for PM miners. Does the market still believe inflation can be tamed despite the "surprises" every time that's been false? How about when the whole transitory idea was declared a failure?

I'm admittedly frustrated, but just holding. My main positions are GUNR, GDX, SIL, and large cap royalties like WPM and FNV.

>>49933903
>Could it 10x
Anything is possible, but realistically the upside of the stock is better than the downside. That's it.
My personal horizon is 2-3 years, but if it takes longer or shorter, that's okay too.
I like UUUU because it's a mature company, and it's optionable, and it also offers rare earth element processing. It does move in line with other uranium sector stocks.
I'm happy to see it losing value, too. I want to see it drop so I can accumulate more.

>>49919261
July 13th 8:30 am

>>49930333
He specifically addressed that question and said that if indeed he was wrong he would own up to it and literally tell us to pack up and go home. He's not wrong. This last members conference was incredibly bullish.

>>49927672
You aren't wrong. The markets are just fucked and suffering broad market liquidity events. Uranium insider just did a major members only webinar about this. Basically uranium only has another 20-30% downside versus the massive, massive, massive upside.

Justin is calling uranium over $100 in the next three to six months due to incredibly bullish developments in the sector. I cannot explain further. Only encourage you to get a subscription and in particular listen to the members webinar from the other day.

I wonder if Russia is going to cut off uranium to the west since its clear we want to pivot away from theirs and the EU just decided moldova and ukraine could have candidate status for membership

>>49928432
It's 20 years away. No threat to uranium. Investments.

>>49929665
Gogold is one of my strongest convictions. He's a pump chaser and not as smart or informed as he appears. We found bue lagoon before him and when we sent it to him he said he wasn't interested. He fomod in

>>49930263
Santacruz silver. Increased production by six million ounces and market hasn't reacted at all. Upcoming quarterly Financials which will show massive increases in revenue and profit. Stock will take off.

lots of environmentalists/leftists trying to sneak on the boards of US oil companies, probably to sabotage oil companies from within, if you own oil stocks you need to vote.

>>49932240
GUNR is the best one. Read about it and look up the holdings.

>>49933210
0%

Listen to more Peter schiff.

>>49933212
Good for global atomic and basically any producing silver miner. In particular Santa Cruz.

>>49933285
As long as the rates are below the I flatiron rate this in itself is inflationary and will fuel the inflationary fire. U need to listen to Peter schiff.

>>49933939
Yes the market is retarded and it's taken me two years to not only realize just how retarded they are, but to be able to make money off them. Like with this current oil sell off, we all know that oil prices are going much higher, but if the market wants to believe oil will come crashing down because of recession then I'll go ahead and swing trade my oil posistions.

>>49934333
Checked and that's good to know thanks
I should have just watched the video before asking questions, which I will do

>>49934473
>He's a pump chaser
exactly, GV is a clown, he names his holdings a "sit"folio and tells his followers to sit and buy his holdings while he's constantly getting in and out of positions. GV would rugpull his own grandmother if he thought he could profit from it

>>49933212
wow thats big news! Zinc prices spiking is great news for us!

evening all!
watched all the gear leave from the project I worked on all winter, really a shame to see it fail the way it did but oh well some other company will show up and salvage Bonanza.
Hows things for everyone else today?

Blue Lagoon chads.... we could be weeks away from huge assay results... finally some hopium to huff

>>49933210
>Fed is able to contain inflation
impossible in the long term, but short term (next 2-3 years, they can try)
>price of gold and silver collapse
the banks could ratchet up their shorting/spoofing of the spot prices, and i think they will. i think they can keep metals prices at these levels or lower for another couple years but eventually they won't be able to. or so i've read. who knows honestly. it could be 2027 and gold could still be at $1800 and silver at $23. i think thats highly unlikely but we cant rule out the possibility

>>49933212
>>49935925
I sure hope zinc moons and this helps Hecla, they're probably the biggest zinc producer I have. Maybe, with a little luck, Silver will go crazy next

Guanajuato bros

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WwoV9SpvmX0

>>49937236
yea their news about finding high values in old tailings is pretty great.

>>49914779
Shake the tourists out. Nothing bad.

How can the Fed control inflation with a 120% debt-to-GDP ratio? Why is the market pricing in their ability to control it?

>>49934374
thanks justin

>>49936357
I'm ready

>>49936357
>>49938113
yes!

Fuck you oil.

Someone shilled Sayona in another thread (Australian mining company, lithium).
I don't know what to look for in junior miners, but he seemed pretty optimistic, and it's pretty cheap. His target date was 2 years.

>>49933307
higher interest gets applied only to new treasuries and they have said they will emit less this year

those numbers are utter nonsense

>>49935371
He said this again in the uranium market minute episode from today.

Alright bros....

Before we start,

White = bolinger bands
Blue = supports and trendlines
Red= 18 day average (sentiment indicator)
Purple= 50 day average (Sentiment confirmation indicator)
Green= 100 day MA = Soft support/resistance
Yellow= 200 Day MA = hard support/resistance.

So starting on oil, It has become and maintained embedded oversold status. This is achieved when both the red and yellow lines on the RSI maintain an oversold or overbought status for three days aka both lines under 30 or over 80 (on the bottom), This signifies that momentum in the current direciton will continue and very strongly. The price of oil is riding the lower bolinger band, something it will typically do for only about five days on average, rarely more than that but not unheard of.

The green support of the 100 day average has been broken and pierced.

The next lower target is the 200 day moving average at about $92-$93.

I feel very confident in saying that at least for the next two days we will continue to see large selling pressure on the price of oil. After two days, it could pause for a bit and then continue lower.

As soon as the red (K) line on the RSI pops over thirty I am IMMEDIATELY out of this trade. It only has ONE DAY to dip back below 30 otherwise you are OUT OUT OUT.

>>49940681
As I go on remember that David Hunter has never once shown a chart in his entire analyst career that I am aware of. Off topic to the discussion, but just a reminder that he is a complete hack and a stooge.

I’m losing faith in the thesis, everything is just getting totally wrecked and commodities have a long way to fall

>>49940681
Maybe I'm retarded right now but why is the blue horizontal line a trend/support line? Top of previous highs?

>As soon as the red (K) line on the RSI pops over thirty I am IMMEDIATELY out of this trade. It only has ONE DAY to dip back below 30 otherwise you are OUT OUT OUT.
This is conflicting information. The red RSI line is at 0.00, so it's already below 30. Otherwise, there's no way it will pop back above 30 in one day. What are you talking about?

Now for athabasca, since this is my largest position and similar for you as well in this thread, The chart is virtually identical to the oil chart so no explanation is needed. However do note though that the red line on the RSI is still pointing downwards whereas on the oil chart it is pointing upward. This means as I interpret, that as SOON as oil breaks it's embedded oversold status, you will have about ONE DAY MAYBE TWO, to buy back in. HOWEVER, I see the oil price dropping over the course of the next month or so, so I WILL NOT be buying back in for a couple of weeks, UNLESS my downside price targets are hit. I expect that the next federal reserve meeting is going to be the ultimate end all be all, make it or break it for the commodities and inflation "trade", The fed doubled down and whipped their dicks out with a .75% bp hike. They have to do this again at the next meeting or they lose credibility and we all know how unlikely it is for this to happen. Anyway, whatever happens, I will not be buying back in until we get closer to that meeting OR my price targets are hit. Just because we leave embedded oversold status does not necessarily mean I will buy back in and I don't recommend any one else does either. That meeting next month is too big of a catalyst.

>>49940783
That is a line I placed as a possible support zone on yes, the previous highs.

Yes it does conflict but that's not what I meant. I meant as soon as the red line breaks thirty you are out UNLESS it recovers back below the next day. Sorry. The red line is actually at 0.83 if you look on the bottom left next to the white letters, it will say in red font.

Read what I said carefully. The red line is currently at 0.83, when it goes back up above 30, it will have one day to reclaim (go back below 30) otherwise you are out of the trade. and yes, it is unlikely this will happen in one day.

>>49940837
Yeah I understand, I just didn't parse it correctly, thanks.

>>49940847
Here's a zoomed out chart that hopefully shows the situation better.

>>49940788
Athabasca doing what its always done: Incinerate capital? From a looks it seems like they've focused on their better assets but considering their history I'm hesitant.

>>49940859
I'm not too familiar with their history, care to explain? This isn't necessarily athabascas fault, this is a broad market sell off and in their defense, it's correlating perfectly with the price of oil. It's practically the same chart but I am interested in hearing about their past.

>>49914779
>$20 bills cost $5 but I'm not sure if i should wait until they're $4
buy at 5 and again at 4

Bump because I put way too much work into this thread for it to die.

>>49942173
Give me hope

>>49940681
so what are you doing, shorting oil

>>49934374
>due to incredibly bullish developments in the sector.
My take: The Ukraine War will not end this year, same as the Russian Economy will not collapse, which will lead to a new escalation of sanction. Now there is a conflict potential for Kazakhstan in the future (which I believe is pretty low) but yeah still a possibility.

Now add Germany into the picture, Russia shut them down, major support and pressure for keeping the last three nuclear plants open. I completely understand why he is bullish and I will just slurp monthly the bottom.

>>49942297
No. I sold all my oil stocks last week and am waiting until this dump is over and then I'm buying back in. It was a $70,000 sell.

>>49940681
>>49940788
Brilliant and timely insight Red thank you. Are you also swinging your SM position or just Athabasca?

>>49942779
>No. I sold all my oil stocks last week and am waiting until this dump is over and then I'm buying back in. It was a $70,000 sell.
did you not feel comfortable hedging instead of going to cash? nothing wrong with cash in this environment but now you have a tax liability on your gains

>>49942173
Alright Red, I want to specifically ask for your advice. I noticed a trend that you speak your mind even when its not popular and I always respect that and need that now. It was the same with me. People here were dumping money into penny silver stocks especially things like bayhorse, when I kept saying buying at .21 is ridiculous when it traded at .08 for so long based solely on promises of 1000x was ludicris but many people did it anyway. When it dropped to .14 people said buy the dip even when I said it might not be a dip but they did it anyway. I saw people saying they tried to average down by buying at .10 when I said stop putting MORE money into something that you already lost 50% in, but they did anyway. Now people have finally stopped trying to buy these sub .20 stocks finally learning a hard lesson. Another thing I kept saying was why it was dumb to buy so much when what if a recession or crash happens like everyone is predicting, it will take our picks down too, but everyone just kept saying while MSFT loses 90%, silver will inversely go up 900%. Only now do people realize what a bad strategy it was. And now you have people who bought into green dildos on oil and uranium being burned because they were thinking it can only go up. I suppose while everyone thinks what can go right, people like us also think about what could go wrong and try to be cautious while everyone else is gambling. Hell, if you look at my other posts here, you see how I have the worry the super cycle might not happen, and commodities might not end up being where the riches are made but instead buying cheap into the general market. And of course, you have people here ASSURING that it HAS to go up. That there is no way commodities might not get just as fucked in an already risky sector that has the tendency to get fucked during a time of fucking...(1/2)

>>49942173
>>49945671
(2/2)
My question to you is, I know you have made your list of best personal picks before, and I myself have bought a reasonable share through DCA over the last 2 years in those among other picks, whether through others and my own research. I have saved $100K cash which I will start to finally tap into and more aggressively use to invest in these coming months. If you could give me what you think are winners across the difference sectors, I would really appreciate it. I want to do my own DD as well as get stronger conviction among what I already have bought or have on watchlist. I never directly asked for help before, but now that I'm going to be really be using what will be heart breaking to lose, I'm dropping pretense and asking for your opinion. It would seriously ease my anxiety if you could help.

>GUSH
OOOOOOOOOOOOO

Huge Announcement - Bayhorse CEO Graeme O'Neil has made available millions more shares to purchase for new investors. This once in a lifetime opportunity should not be missed. Just review the incredible due diligence previously posted on this site to see the full potential of this incredible mine. After a two week drilling program, followed by two weeks to start the new ore processing facility, two weeks to ship the concentrate to Ocean, Bayhorse no longer needs to collect previously mined ore and will be applying for a mining permit in just two more weeks. Hurry and buy your new shares today because in just two more weeks new shares will be sold lowering the stock price even further. Don't wait two more weeks, slurp up all this cheap horsey sauce now !

https://www.juniorminingnetwork.com/junior-miner-news/press-releases/1033-tsx/ar/123717-argonaut-gold-announces-terms-for-its-c-195-million-equity-financing-together-with-its-us-250-million-credit-facilities-to-fully-finance-the-magino-construction-project.html

Argonaut just more than doubled their shares outstanding at 45c lol. Stock traded at $4 just 7 months ago. What a trainwreck. They might even get delisted because they will do the raise without a shareholder vote relying on some exemption regarding financial distress.

>>49947246
keke

>>49940923
Just an small oilsands producer that has historically been a place where capital went to die. I bought it as it seems to be a takeout target with its tax pool and all. I wouldn't act like it's not a shitco though.

HOW TO RECOVER FROM BHS LOSSES
>cost basis is 2000 shares at 0.16
>currently at 0.04
>buy 10k shares at market
>sell 10k shares at market
>cost basis is now 0.06 at 2000 shares
>repeat
Its literally that easy bros

>>49948569

>>49948569
lel if you did this your broker would automatically calculate the wash sale unless you wait a month in between purchases

Uranium Rotation, let's go!

I loaded up on more Baseload and SPUT yesterday, to complement my large URNM position.

>>49940788
I've been noticing a lot of interesting price action in another company with a similar name. Athabasca Minerals.

>>49944851
That's something I definitely could have done and will be exploring that strategy in the future.

>>49949447
I thought wash sales were just re: taxes? In either case yes, its a stupid idea because you have tax events and broker fees on top of that

>>49949997
I got 400x6.50 UUUU and loaded with CCs. I want it to hit 4.80 so I can buy more

>>49950587
What makes you think it will go that low?

>>49950628
I dont think the market has finished going down yet. I havent looked at TA or fib levels yet but that would be 10-20% down from where we are now. Uranium has a high beta

>>49945671
>>49940788
>>49940783
>>49943847


Alright guys so here's where we're at today. I have a lot of money on this so I'm intensely focused. I've pulled out notes and texts from my trading courses and am applying all the techniques. I'll start with the athabasca chart since it's the most relevant to most of us.

Before I start. I quickly want to say I am highly, highly skeptical of this bounce we're having today. Athabasca is up about 8% or so and oil is at about $107.

I think this is likely just short covering. Very unusual for something like this to rally on a friday, especially in the midst of massive broad market sell offs and bear rally dynamics so that sets off alarm bells for me. Why would someone want to hodl a hot potato over the weekend? In the midst of market sell offs, at the end of the month (when traders typically try to bring prices down), and with a federal reserve meeting coming up where rates are expected to be hiked? Doesn't make sense... so I whipped out the swing lines.


So after applying the swing lines you can see that we are still in a clear down trend. Today is known as what is called an "inside day", in which the bar for the day is "inside" the previous day aka the high of the previous day is not taken out and the low of the previous day is not taken out. This forms an apex on the swingline. After applying the swinglines, you can see that we are in a clear downtrend with lower highs and lower lows and in fact this would be a great place to initiate a short position, solely based on the swinglines, if not for two problems....

Problem one: We are right against the Bolinger band (in white) which is a profit taking target for traders and algorithms. By definition, market pries will stay constrained in Bollinger bands for 95% of the time. You NEVER initiate a trade on a bollinger band.

Problem two: We are butting right against the 100 DMA which is a fairly strong support/ resistance (not as strong as the 200),

>>49950587
wash sales are about taxes / capital losses, but you have to wait a month in between buys/sells

>own 2000 shares at .16
>buy 10k shares at .04 to lower cost average
>wait 1 month to avoid wash sale
>sell 10k shares *making sure to include the 2000 @ 0.16* to realize loss
>new cost basis at .06 for 2000 shares

you have to instruct your broker to "sell specific shares" and you have to make sure you sell the 2000 that you have a loss on. otherwise it might just sell the same 10k you bought at .04 and you will breakeven on those 10k and it will leave you where you started with 2000 shares @ .16

you might as well just sell the 2000 for a loss now, wait a month, and re-buy 2000 at .04. you're going to be losing the same amount of money either way and can apply it to taxes

>>49951802
>never enter on a bband
Do you mean buy or does that apply to shorts too? In other words is the bband edge considered a potential reversal point?
Naively, you could say that its oversold, at support, and at the band edge so it could be primed to rally - but you have the exact opposite stance

>>49951802
anon what does RSI embedding mean? google not being helpful

>>49951898
I did however capitulate on GOG and GGO today. Got about $300 back against a cost of $600 or so

>>49951967
He means it fell out of the 30-70 range. Previously red said that if it falls below 30 and stays there for 3 or 4 sessions then its more or less a confirmed trend. If it crossed above or below 30 and went back the next day or two then its just noise

>>49951802
So what do I think?

I think this is just a temporary stop, a little relief rally before we move down again next week. Once and if we break through this 100 DMA solidly, we can expect another large move down. I think this will take us all the way down to my 200 DMA price target. I think we have the next two weeks to do it. The weekly chart for oil and athabasca is even worse, with the 200 DMA being all the way down at .60c for athabasca.

I expect next week will continue seeing more downside and I am waiting to buy back in until my price targets are hit.

Where or when am I wrong?

If Athabasca goes higher than $1.95 the trendline I have shown is broken.

>>49951802
meh, just because Atha is over the 200 dma doesn't mean its going to shit the bed. not all oil plays are ahead of themselves. USO is at trend for example, although my trend line is debatable. Atha tracks oil pretty well so unless oil or the overall market dumps, i dont see why it *must* pull back to the 200 dma

>>49915232
Good luck with that. If the pattern breaks once, you can miss the giant pump lol

>>49951930
You never buy or sell on a Bollinger band. You never initiate any position, long or short, on a Bollinger band. The Bollinger is not a reversal point, it is a profit target objective, but purely from a mechanical standpoint, it could be viewed as a very soft "support" or "resistance".

Oversold is different than "embedded" oversold and overbought is different than "embedded" overbought. Embedded is when both the rsi lines are below 30 (oversold) for three consecutive days or above 70 (over bought) for three consecutive days. This signifies a locked in trend where very powerful moves are taking place.

https://youtu.be/3LIrQwfM1LU?t=352

Ira discusses on when to pull out of an embedded trade in this video

https://youtu.be/gTvHDr6l8PQ?t=252

Ira demonstrates embedding in this video @ 4:02

>>49951984
Yes. See the video I linked.

>>49952401
And yes, Ira does say 20 in this video but that's because those are the numbers wallstreet uses 20 and 80, but for his personal trading and his courses he uses 70 and 30 because this parameter adds a buffer to trades. He also uses an 18 day average versus a 14 or a ten which are popular on wallstreet, the give a buffer on his trades.

>>49952070
It doesn't "have to" do anything but looking at all of the pieces together is how you trade.

For me, embedded over sold RSI, swinglines, price action, loss of supports, market sentiment and other factors all point to continued downwards pressure.

>>49949447
Wash is just for tax. Sometimes to get out of a shit situation you have to go in hard and sell at a less loss

>>49951578
Should I rotate out right now into something else?
If so, what?

This is a long term investment for me.should I just wait?

>>49945689
Just wanted to let you know I saw this question and I'm going to give my perspective on the next little bit.

>>49952587
I had this problem with Americas silver corp. Brought in on a massive drop, kept dropping. When it finally levelled out i had to go wham, on the first decent green day got the fuck out. Took a loss but wasn't as bad as not doing anything, that piece of junk weren't going up in a hurry. I got it down to around a dollar. A year or so later its 70 cents

>>49952597
Don't make any emotional decisions when investing. I'm not doing anything with uranium or gold and silver. I just saw an opportunity to take profit on oil and buy back in at a discount. I'm bullish long term on all commodities. I'm gonna come back in a little bit to answer>>49945671

And that should give you some perspective. I'm sick right now with the flu and I feel like shit so I'm gonna take a nap for a hit.

>>49952597
Me too, I plan to bag UUUU for 2-3 years. It will dip again and it will rise again. If you have an open position I recommend selling an OTM CC if youre comfortable and then buy and average down when it drops. Otherwise just be patient, no need to rush it

>>49952587
>Sometimes to get out of a shit situation you have to go in hard and sell at a less loss
that will not work unless you get share price appreciation after you buy the additional shares

>>49952545
oil itself is still holding 100 dma. Atha trades with oil so if there's no oil dump then there's no Atha dump. unless the whole market dumps then yes Atha would sell off with everything else

what does CMMG think of steel companies

>Impact Silver reached March 2020 level
>Half of their market cap is in cash
>It's already 11% of my portfolio
I don't give a shit, it's time to buy.

>>49951802
Will we see a squeeze? The guy shorting it seems adamant.

>>49953661
Yes. Right now is a critical moment. Remember that just like when breaking resistances, where there is a back test, the reverse is true for breaking supports. You will see a back test. The current action on the chart could possibly be this back testing before breaking through the 100 day.

Im open to all interpretations and always aware of other interpretations, but the confluence of factors and circumstances I'm looking at now suggest that next week will continue to see further downside. However I will look at the weekly charts here in a little bit for further confirmation.

>>49953918
I wouldn't think so. Most traders are on the bullish side of the boat and there's no reason to be bearish oil. This is only a pull back. Today was a relief rally and short covering likely.

>>49940725
You racka disciprine

Mammoth found in Yukon placer claim dog-out... PAN MAN have you ever heard of this occurring, or even Indian artifact finds on mine properties?

>>49952597
There's far more upside potential than downside in the long run.

>>49914779
>RedWolf up in this bitch and I'm gonna be posting charts. Let's get a serious discussion going on where we think uranium is going short term. Is it correlated to the s&p? Is it correlated to energy?

Uranium is trash. Imagine the entire world is desperate for energy rn and nuclear power still isn't being considered as a useful alternative.

>Gas over $5 per galleon

>>49956175
I'm sorry anon but we're going to have to shut down your mine because we found a piece of a 300 year old basket. Hope you understand.

>>49953848
Impact is my biggest position, I probably need $26 silver to get back to even. It will happen

>>49956436
>uranium does well
>unload my bags at a tidy profit

>uranium does bad
>can farm yield off people who think otherwise

Its so comfy anon

>>49952763
>>49952845
Thank you, I eagerly await.

>>49940045
The numbers aren't useless, they're just not as useful for the exact reason you mentioned.

The missing variable is how much debt does the US actually have to roll over every year? Knowing that in combination with this chart would give you a pretty good idea of how high and how long the Fed can push rates.

https://ceo.ca/@nasdaq/trillion-energy-international-announces-filing-of-final

Trillion news. Not sure what this is supposed to be. Some guys in CEO had said that the financing had been unofficially closed over a week ago but to my eyes this just looks like an extension of the closing deadline unless I'm missing something. It's interesting because Echelon offered really fucking shitty terms and now the SP has fallen to more or less match the offering. You still get free warrants but it's less appealing to investors who didn't open up by shorting Trillion when it was 35% higher.

Is anyone familiar with E.B. Tucker - he seems redpilled and informative about macroeconomic trends as well as financial policy.
>https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DHY8sWt7EOE

>>49956175
yes! this is an amazing find and honestly miners love this sort of thing, it gets them notoriety and often lots of attention (that they can make money off of). >>49957354 your kind of right, but the miners already moved the body out to save it, so in this case they will be back mining fast. Geos / archeologists get the idea up there to stay out of placer guys ways unless their called in, than they have free rain.

>>49956175
mammoth tusks, mastadon teeth and whole animals perserved in permafrost were extremely common in centuries past. One interesting thing to note, all the animals found in the alaskan / yukon border regions all died at the same time, with many having broken legs or pelvis, they were also flash frozen, as though the regional temperature went from 10 degrees to -15 in hours. The grass found under many animals was noted to still be as green as the day they were buried. Mammoth Ivory is still very common on placer mines, a bunch of buddies up in Mayo have fantastic pieces in their living rooms.

>>49960385
>Is anyone familiar with E.B. Tucker
yes i catch his interviews. he's a bit narrative based and rarely uses statistics but his narratives make sense. his problem is the lack of statistics and data in the average interview

https://www.mining.com/web/column-zincs-turn-to-feel-the-squeeze-as-lme-stocks-evaporate/
more news on the zinc short squeeze going on.

>>49957818
I'm currently down 50% but at a 43MC, I really have a hard time not buying even though I know it might be better diversifying...

It's pretty elastic anyway so spot price is all we need.

bump

https://twitter.com/JrMiningNetwork/status/1540417963173593091
>Defiance Silver Corp. (TSXV: DEF) (OTCQX: DNCVF) (FSE: D4E) ("Defiance" or the "Company") announces that it has become aware that certain mineral concessions concerning its Tepal Project have been illegally and fraudulently transferred to a third party individual without the Company's knowledge or consent.

They got their land stolen wtf hahaha

>>49964960
I learned pretty early when I started looking into this industry 2 years ago that Mexico was uninvestable and things have just continued to deteriorate. I would rather invest many places in Africa than Mexico.

>>49964960
>Investing into borderline commie nations

It's really unfortunate that those places have such commodity wealth, because their jurisdictions are ooga booga tier.
Worst part is that they can't do shit with those resources themselves. They can only try to steal them but that's about as far as it goes, it never leads to a healthy local mining industry.
It's only going to get worse as the world economy and food insecurity grows worse and people vote more and more commies into power. This is why I'm not too keen on investing outside the civilized world, even if the opportunities are great.
Africa is slightly different, because you can at least use a private military or bribe the government to waste any locals who try to steal your stuff, but you can't do that in Latin America.

>>49964960
>They got their land stolen
by who? the gov't?

>>49953746
making steel is very energy intensive, mostly in the form of coal that seems to get fucking expensive rn
steel is a very basic building material with tons of uses
i dont think that steelplants fare well in a recession, but since im extremely bad at making money its probably a good investment anyways, thats said i also lose when i try to inverse myself so think for yourself if my argument makes sense or if i missed something important
>>49960719
>with many having broken legs or pelvis, they were also flash frozen, as though the regional temperature went from 10 degrees to -15 in hours
is there theories what could have caused that?
broken legs sound like some kinda earthquake, mammoths are already at max size with their bone structure at earth gravity but wtf would cause such a temperature change? only thing i can think of would be high speed wind from the polar region but even then a whole mammoth would stay warm for days

>>49967510
governments are the only entities able to steal land on prison planet
more interesting would be if it was just some low level bureaucrat bitch changing some database entries or if it happened from the top

>>49967559
it was possibly a meteor impact, this could explain the damage to wildlife and trees. It didnt hit Alaska though, it likely hit somewhere near Greenland or further north.

>>49964960
wow you dont see this all that often anymore

>>49914673
https://twitter.com/anasalhajji/status/1540193255865958408
Interesting thread from someone who I think has a pretty good grasp on oil markets. I think the takeaway of it all is that Biden is totally fucked in the short term and that's bad news for the midterms. I listened to this guy's spot on macrovoices last week and really put a lot into perspective for me in terms of oil markets. Give it a listen if you're into that kind of thing

That being said, I find it extremely comical that the supreme court just happens to hand down this controversial spicy point that the left loves so close to midterms. I am one to lean into conspiracy theories I suppose but come on, really you fuckheads?

>>49968749
It's rather suspicious, isn't it?
Almost the only thing that could have possibly distracted from the horrible economic and geopolitical issues.

>>49968870
Personally I feel extremely disconnected from the political sphere of the world the last few years. I thought I was becoming less lolbert but even as a man who has been on and off religious I just CAN'T relate to the evangelical right on abortion. I think it's disgusting but I don't give a shit, I think the poison in the country goes far deeper than this.

Gonna be another interesting six months but I expect if dems hold majorities then we're all gonna be back in masks and mandates eoy.

>>49969101
To tie it back more onto the thread topic though so I don't devolve into /pol/posting in /cmmg/ I don't see how commodity prices across the board don't go up. Crude prices could stagnate but refinery valuation will definitely still go way up because president old bitch didn't wanna keep building them after the first one built in 2020 since 1977. Biden could VERY WELL buy oil prices lower until mid terms with the SPR and maybe that's the point of all this shit, but releasing SPR barrels during the brink of a global war is bad form.

>>49968749
>I find it extremely comical that the supreme court just happens to hand down this controversial spicy point that the left loves so close to midterms. I am one to lean into conspiracy theories I suppose but come on, really you fuckheads?
it reeks of panic
trust in media is at all time low, more people are waking up to their bullshit
they will have to reign with a more direct approach to terror and fear soon death squad style, or they will have to go into hiding so they dont get lynched

Bros I made a bad call on natural gas and got rekt, everything I try to trade seems to go badly. Please give me a morsel of advice on what to buy

>>49969161
I think the SPR releases are a form of Yield curve control for the Yen and the Euro that does not involve the purchase of government bonds.

>>49969915
Stop chasing winners. In general that's probably the biggest mistake people make, when something has gone up a lot they want to buy and when something is beaten down they don't like it. Contrarian investing is much better, but of course not everything that has gone down a lot will go back up.

>>49969915
Going crazy with leverage and options with commodities will get you burned. You never know when some facility will blow up or some geopolitical nonsense will happen.

*G-7 TO ANNOUNCE IMPORT BAN ON NEW RUSSIAN GOLD: US OFFICIAL

What's even the point? Unless they get every country on earth in on the ban they can just sell it to a country that will take it and they can then turn around and sell it to the US.

>>49970032
Maybe but the rug is coming one way or another. We're collectively fucked I think although I'd rather live here than anywhere else since these retard fags are failing to implement all their lefitst drivel

>>49969915
the only thing im 100% convinced of is physical silver
>>49970214
maybe just creating the news piece?
just hope it doesnt cause russia to fuck with my polymetal, but fucking with exactly the people who are somewhat russia-friendly isnt really in russias interest anyways
oh fuck these sanctions are all so fucking clownishly evil

>>49969915
Scottie seems to be at or near the bottom at .13-.14US. Good drill results and cash position, a lot of bros here hold them, check em out

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g3hUJfl1bjA

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PMcbqwVH1XQ

>>49968870
>It's rather suspicious, isn't it?
>Almost the only thing that could have possibly distracted from the horrible economic and geopolitical issues.
no its not really that suspicious. leftists will seethe about it over the weekend and then forget because everyone has a short attention span these days. we will have a new crisis to focus on shortly that will take the attention

>>49969915
>everything I try to trade seems to go badly.
everyone is struggling to trade right now. i've pulled back and am just sitting in a lot of cash and waiting. cash is performing well against stocks

>>49969915
If you're playing with leverage (shorts, margin, options, levered ETFs) then please do keep your positions open for as short as possible. The longer you keep a position open, the more *types* of risk you get exposed to (eg interest, jurisdiction, etc etc), and the larger scale of macro events you need to pay attention to. If you're in something like natgas, then you probably bought something like UNG, which tracks futures prices. Futures still move based on geopolitical events, which you need to be aware of.

Personally, I might buy some paper gold etfs since I imagine the price of it will decouple and go up if a recession announcement on Wednesday is confirmed; then I'll sell it and pivot to paper silver when the mint ratio looks favorable. However, I still need to be aware of other risks: for example, there's always a possibility that GDP numbers look amenable, there is no recession, or the fed won't raise rates, or even reverse rates. It's very unlikely, but you still need to factor those sorts of risks into new positions.

I'm also just as happy to sit on uranium bags and sell calls to people that are gambling or hedging.
Most importantly anon, you need to be patient.
I could also be rude and imply you're NGMI if you need to be shilled to instead of DYOR.

>>49970666 (checked)
>leftists will seethe about it over the weekend and then forget because everyone has a short attention span these days
I can't really predict the specifics, but a liquidity or energy crisis seems in the cards. Back in February, I was expecting either of those to be the next big thing. I'm guessing we'll have some kind of financial collapse in the near term as a catalyst, then.

>>49970948
maybe a sovereign debt crisis. we already had Sri Lanka go bust, but its not an important enough country for the market to care. we need more nations to start defaulting

https://twitter.com/Convertbond/status/1540756472409235456
>G-7 TO ANNOUNCE IMPORT BAN ON NEW RUSSIAN GOLD: US OFFICIAL
>13% of the worlds Gold Production.
Holy kekerino !!!

>>49969915
Step 1: quit chasing and buying the top
Step 2: buy KOLD because natty is going back to $3

>>49971221
the gold price will drop, watch

>>49971397
Short term ? Maybe

But that's the exact scenario Luke explained here :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Wo0g-Se2ls

>>49971457
i saw that episode a while ago but do you have a timestamp? brent johnson thinks a sovereign debt crisis could happen too

Rumors that Germany keep their Nuclear plants open and announced it in the next day

>>49971457
>>49971397
>>49971221
Even without this news, I was planning on buying some paper gold ETFs to have exposure to the mint ratio, so this works out very well for me.

Gary savage called a bottom in stocks yesterday. He's gonna be trading qqq. It's setup beautifully for an easy trade. I'm gonna throw money in while I'm waiting for oil to finish correcting.

>>49964960
God dammit.

>>49964960
Thanks for the update.

>>49945689
So first of all I recommend watching this video. It explains that commodities are basically the only shelter from all of these economic forces we are experiencing. Yes, commodities can go down but fundamentally and logically it is the only common sense investment for the long term.

Do you reasonably expect to be able to turn your car on in three years? Congratulations, you are bullish oil. Do you reasonably expect the world to have electricity in 5 years? congratulations, you are bullish on uranium, coal, and nat gas. Do you expect the world to even exist in five years? Congratulations, you are bullish fertilizer, agriculture, and shipping.

Commodities are the only shelter in the entire investment world that aren't complete dogshit, over valued, or inflated. I feel absolutely comfortable holding significant portions (basically all) of my wealth in commodities. The thing is though, is that you want as solid of investments as possible. You don't want an entire portfolio in shit miner speculation. Look at good companies.

Things that I would consider solid investments for the long term are basically in the energy sectors (oil and uranium in particular), agriculture, silver and gold.

Do you have physical gold and silver? Would recommend getting some. Despite all the market chaos the past two years I haven't lost shit on my physical and I continue to buy more all the time.

You're not wrong by being in these sectors. Individual investments thats different. Most of the miners discussed in these threads are shit investments. Take Gogold for example, biggest risk about them is their jurisdiction but they are a cash flowing producer with an expanding resource and despite all the market fuckery I'm only down 5% on them, Incredibly solid miner.

So in the short term commodities can get fucked but long term every single facet of every single start is aligning that we are in and will continue to be in a commodities bull market. It's undeniable.

>>49973046
>Commodities are the only shelter in the entire investment world that aren't complete dogshit, over valued, or inflated
Thoughts on paper silver/gold? I was considering buying some to play the mint ratio

>>49945689

So I think that while the short term definitely sucks ass, long term everything will be okay and we will be rewarded. Just take steps to protect yourself as much as possible.

Investments I like.

GUNR ETF. I don't lose any sleep over holding this. I have significant money in it. Before everything started dumping two months ago, this was on a consistent trend of going up while the stock market was going down.

Encore energy- A solid investment in the uranium space. I have confident in the management and the project. Cannot stress enough how solid it is.

Now yes those are stocks and I am not putting faith into stocks or saying you should buy stocks. I am just telling you what I consider to be solid investments in my portfolio. I'm not shilling you stocks.

Physical gold and silver.

I think the biggest reason you are feeling fear and despondence is because you are not informed. I don't mean this personally or in a crude way, I am just saying that the best way to counter fear is knowledge. I have to remind myself every week why I am investing in what I am investing in because the markets are going down. I listen to peter Schiff, finding value, uranium insider. I go back over company presentations; I look at charts. This is a weekly struggle so I completely understand why you feel hopeless. I feel hopeless at times too and it is a constant battle to stay strong.

I am going to give you my email. Feel free to reach out and if you want we can have a phone conversation. Redwolf 1488 @ protonmail. com

Stay strong man. You're getting blown in the wind right now and it's because you need conviction and knowledge. You're in the right sectors. Everything is incredibly bullish. Oil is just having a small correction right now.

>>49973131
The only paper physical I would buy are the sprott trusts. I know some people play slv and gld but I don't like them fundamentally. sprott might not be as good for trading but If I want silver and gold I buy physical silver and gold. Maybe not the "best" advice for making money with high torque but thats not my objective. I use physical gold and silver for wealth preservation and possible moonshots but then for making money through torque I use oil and uranium or whatever is on a strong trend at the time. It looks like the stock market will be on a rally next week, so I'll be looking at making money through TQQQ.

>>49973168
I'll second GUNR. Until the most recent heavy market hits, it was comfortably trickling up a little bit every day. I enjoy the broad exposure to primary resources it gives. Nice little diversity.

>Encore
Heard the management team was previously involved in a successful project so they wanted to "do it again" hence the name. Personally most of my uranium bags are in UUUU. Thoughts on Energy Fuels?

Also, why is VALE's divvy so high? Is Brazil doing a jurisdiction risk again?

>>49973285
Here's a chart of the S&P500 and then GUNR on the same time frame. It's pretty self explanatory. First is SPX and then the enxt image is GUNR. Speaks for itself.

>>49973285
and here's GUNR.

Speaks for itself.

>>49973285
Yes and those prior projects were Energy fuels and cameco.

Paul Gorensen was literally the CEO of Energy fuels and the president of Cameco. They weren't literally just "some projects" they were literally the biggest north american projects ever.

>>49973285
I have never dived deep into energy fuels but I might here in the coming weeks or months. Theres a major that Justin Hunh previously neglected due to lack of interest or not seeing any potential but he is starting to circle back around to it. I think it might be cameco, Once i can remember or find what it was I'll start looking at it again.

>>49973436
Wew, that's even more bullish than I thought. Guess I'll pick up some Encore bags next time the sector has a dip. Shame it doesn't have options, but I've thrown $500 at worse things.

Also, I heard CCJ has fixed-price uranium contracts, meanwhile the price on uranium is speculated to reach above $150 over the next 5 years, so they supposedly shot themselves in the foot. I like UUUU but don't know a lot beyond they also have some ree's. All in all, it seems like a generally cozy sector.

https://youtu.be/yYNY7VAgmP0
It's over

>>49973285
>Also, why is VALE's divvy so high? Is Brazil doing a jurisdiction risk again?
Nickel and lithium profit headwinds.