/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>4987972
Is that you Charlie Lee?

>>4987972
This is actually spooky

>>4987972
nice log/log meme lines

>>4987972
Which scale are you using for the x axis ?

Make it happen wizard. I am ready.

>>4987972
Wtf is wrong with the x axis?

>2011................2012........2013
lul

>>4988123
>what is a log-log graph

Jesus Christ do Americans just not do highschool math or something?

Inb4 bitcoin takes a shit on your graph and just breaks out of that channel with Mach 20

>>4988123
>>4988123
>/biz/ doesn't understand log

>>4987972
did you end up finding the data for total cap m8?

>>4988132
>Americans
I'm indian. What is log-log?

>2015------2016-----2017----2018---2019-2010-------------------------------------------------2030

Ayyy lmao

>>4988182
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Log%E2%80%93log_plot

>>4987972
>bitcoin increasing so fast it causes time compression

>>4988209
The years become too close for them to be worth putting all down following 2020.

Why is this shit so hard for you brainlets to understand?

>>4988173
nah, coinmarketcap doesn't export to .csv or any useful format and I haven't been looking very hard.

>>4988260
It's not even exponential, it's polynomial. That's why loglog fits it to a line so well.

>>4988133
The meme lines are unbreakable.

>>4988240
I get this when plotting log-log

>>4988307
That's the same as OP's just without the years and grid laid out beneath mate.

>>4988307
Offset the x-axis a bit. The amount of offset in my graph (about a year) gives about the maximum linear correlation (0.958).

>>4987972
At what price does BTC re-enter the underpriced channel?

>>4987972
>log-log with time axis
fucking brainlet

>>4988339
Thanks anon

Why are you assuming that the bear market will take multiple years?

>>4988307
>python
not gonna make it

>>4988355
It's growing polynomially and the volatility is inversely proportional to the market cap. The bear and bull markets also appear to be getting longer. Find a better format I dare you.

>>4988351
4k

>>4988387
Just extrapolating from the pattern I see.

Where's the peak at, exactly, in the log-log chart?

>>4988390
What do you use ? I also use R for more advanced stuff, but here I'm just plotting

>>4988394
~20k might need an actual trigger to set it off though. Maybe if the CME futures are liquid enough institutional shorting could do it.

>>4988392
The problem with the bear market pattern is that 2013 had two bubbles and that the MtGox collapse was an unfathomable event that will be hard to match in scale.

Also, with the fork of BCH, things are going to get tricky for BTC. Could be perma-bear this time.
Or perma-bull if they are willing to try and squash BCH via price.

>>4988425
Thanks. What's the second chart? Kind of hard to understand with no labels.

>>4988451
The proportion of the actual price over the price of the fit line. The peaks are at about 10x the projected price each.

honestly a 3 year bear market wouldnt be that bad

all of the normies start losing money and BTFO and we get to slowly accumulate for 3 years and focus on tech improvements instead of get rich quick ponzi

then we explode to fucking outerspace

>>4988439
>2013 had two bubbles and that the MtGox collapse was an unfathomable event that will be hard to match in scale.
ez pz
there is like several comparable evens just begging to happen anytime
pick one

bear market so buy yer coins now

as true as these numbers

>>4988553
Yeah I am aware of them
And I know that this is a bubble and that it will pop
But i don't know about a huge crypto winter again.. but if there was one it would work in my favor.. need to accumulate more.

>>4988123
it blplplplplpled the yah hah hah

>>4988623
The bear markets had about the same slope when you adjust for declining volatility in the way the log-log does. If it is going to return to the fit line again, we have a long winter ahead.

>>4988654
To be fair, we don't know where the peak is yet. Playing around with your chart I can find a way to justify the end of the bear market being in late 2019.

>>4988710
That's a really sharp decline if it's going to the bottom trendline.

>>4988710
Post a screenie for us brainlets

>>4988639
I'm laughing so hard at my own cooment, what the fuck.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B5-X_3_Kpww

>>4988731
Indeed it is, but it's done it before, check pic.
I'm assuming we are at the top now, or very soon (this year).
Also assuming the same angle of decline as the 2011 bubble.

>>4988735
Ok.

>>4988828
Ah yeah I guess that's plausible. A steep decline would certainly be more fun.

My rebuttal is that you need to look at hashrate before you judge the price. The one single driving factor, as I see it, for price movement is hashrate.

>>4988853
I'd love to see all the salt from people who have never lost money in this space before.

>>4988879
Another interesting scenario.
Well, I guess we can sum it up as 'something is coming'. Going to have to wait and see what that something is.
Can you explain more about why you think hashrate will stay with BTC and keep the price at 10k? Why wouldn't they just move to BCH.

>>4988879
Do you think that as difficulty grows, more miners drop off, resulting in transactions-to-be-recorded piling up (before a difficulty adjustment occurs), causing prices to drop as people stop using the coin?

I think miners will mine whatever is most profitable, regardless of difficulty. Profitability has it roots in supply/demand which drives price. Price of the coin determines how profitable mining will be.

Imo, hash rate doesn't drive price. Hash rate picks up where there is the most profit to be made.

>>4989100
I think you're right. This is my attempt at isolating short term moves in each from the trend.

>>4989458
Without the log(time)

maybe we'll repeat the same fractal over again

>>4990101
what would that even be price wise? 10MM?

>>4988751
>been my alarm for 2 years and kids blplplplplpled the yah hah hah all the time