/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>49872435
already expected

should have bought bonds
look at that pump
meanwhile the broad market is slumping.

>>49872435
50 bp

When does it all finally break boyos, I need to get fucking LAID

>>49872435
>>49872463
Bonds are going down these are bond yields brainlets. /biz/ IQ is negative for a long time

>>49873145
I don’t understand the bond market. It’s been in a bill market for 30 years because bond values go down? And now that they are rising in value that’s bad? Why? I mean I know you’re right, I’m just missing something.

>>49873145
You don’t understand. When the yield goes up, it’s because the underlying bonds are rising in value. Thus, we need more rate hikes.

>>49872435
next CPI print will be over 9% and they'll have to go 100bps. Check 'em.

>>49872539
4 percent

>>49872435
also
>2yr
10yr is a bigger deal fag

>>49873275
Yields are rising, which means bond prices are declining. It also means that it costs more for the US to issue new bonds/treasuries/bills. This is basically the cost of US debt.

>>49873289
No, that's literally just wrong. Yield and price are inversely related. Yields go up, prices go down. This is because the coupon rate is constant.

>>49873329
All bonds matter. It's about the relationship between them.

>>49873410
>all bonds matter
i like this slogan

>>49873308
>over 9%
When the fuck are the feds gonna release the real numbers? And more importantly, who the fuck is dumb enough to even believe this shit?
Do the feds really believe we're that fucking dumb? Like, any retard can see 9% ain't even cutting it close. It's al least doubled, and that's being generous.

>>49873410
maybe so but the 10yr is the real shit hits the fan indicator here. I'm less worried about the 2yr timeframe, it's not as useful in depicting more than short term movements. If the 10yr goes above %4 then we're gonna see some serious shit. I seem to recall I've read that 4.5 is where the US debt becomes serviceable as well but (citation needed)

>>49872463
>>49873289
>>49873275
you niggas better be joking

>>49873744
To give credit to the fed, they've said on multiple accounts that the reason they don't include food and energy in their metrics is because the tools they have don't work on those things. Historically, food as been dirt cheap as well, same with energy. So this is all Brandon's + other first world leader's fault. This is the cost of green energy. The food shit I think is really just how painful the fertilizer shortage is, but rate hikes really aren't going to correct these things (at least not short term)

>>49873744
I mean, c'mon! This has to be one of the fattest lies from the feds. You could literally go to the supermarket and track prices for a few months and see they're lying out of their ass.
Hell, you don't even gotta do that. Utility prices speak for themselves with a simple glance.
This shit is so stupid. This is exactly why I'm gonna continue to load up on puts all the way till 2023.
Fucking easy money.

>>49873361
this is insanely bullish for gold

>>49873792
The only fucking reason why the feds won't include food and energy (by the way, the most common expense in the US) is because they know it'll show the REAL results and they'll look bad.
This is all damage control and it's a shitty attempt. Any idiot with a brain can put 2 and 2 together.
Again, all you gotta do is take a quick trip to the supermarket a few times each month, and the prices will speak for themselves.
And even without food and energy in the mix, we're still about x2 the amount the feds have posted.
Anywhere you go, there's been an increase in prices. Cars, building materials, services, tech and clothing.
How long are they gonna keep feeding us this bullshit?

>>49873940
Probably not until rates stop increasing. I would expect further pain for gold until rates finish hiking, if they start cutting rates into stagflation then gold would moon.

>>49872463
Kek, if larp, anon godspeed.
Else this place is done.

>>49873145
Bonds are usually quoted as yields. Interest payments are set at issuance so the yield has a 1:1 correlation with the bond price. High prices are low yields, and low prices are high yields.
The charts are inverted, that's a first day on the job order runner type mistake, come on /biz/.

>>49872465

/thread

>>49873977
Sure it's damage control, not gonna argue there. But there's also fuckall the fed raising rates is really gonna do for things like food and energy in the short term. That's objectively being affected more by other policy but it's good cover for fertizilier shortages and biden too proud to let oil exist (meanwhile Germany is fucking burning COAL again for energy top kek). this administration is such a fucking joke. I can't believe people wanted this all because Trump said mean things about useless dregs of society and loved Israel a bit too much

>>49873977
yup. plus the energy sector is very static and will not see any major innovations for several years to come. so we can keep using it as our primary indicator for the economy even though the rest of the prices are curbing hard

>>49873744
uh, literally never? those figures directly influence TIPS and i-bonds rates.
there is no fucking way they will ever tell the truth, and incur trillions in interest payment outflows, just so you will feel 1% more patriotic.

>>49872435
Everybody does

>>49872435
it's the other way around you dumbo, bonds yield goes up as rate hikes go up

>>49873792
>To give credit to the fed
No, we don't do that. The FED knows that higher fed funds rate will reduce food and energy inflation. When borrowing rates are too high then it affects EVERYTHING because we are a debt based society. In fact, energy and food will be the things people will go without last so that means when the printer prints other things will deflate before food and energy. THAT is the reason why they do not include it. If you are Joe Schmoe and inflation has increased fast enough that your wage has not caught up. You will cut back on everything to have food and energy. The last thing will be food. Joe will sell his house to eat and drive into work. Joe will sell his automobile to eat.

>>49872435
>Expect another 75 bp rate hike next month
Priced in

>>49873744
Probably october/november. This is based on a hunch.

>>49872435
You did not post an image of bonds, you posted an image of the 2 year t-note yield increasing. That means 2 year t-note prices are indeed decreasing.
Also, the amount of fixed income incompetence itt is sickening. Beyond the obvious lack of knowledge of the extremely simple concept of fixed income yield vs price relationship, the fed (federal reserve) isn't "feds" (glowniggers) ffs, the fed doesn't set the 2yr but it does set the fed funds rate, the 2yr only indirectly reflects the fed funds rate whereas the stirs (ED curves) actually do reflect the market-expected path of the fed funds rate, and lastly the CPI has long been known as a complete joke. On the cpi: nobody even mentioned the ridiculous hedonic adjustments and, even worse, owner's equivalent rent. All of these adjustments, including food and energy, are used to suppress the cpi for the most important reason: eroding the living standards of the average American. Nearly all gibs have COLA adjustments slaved to the cpi. If they understate cpi, they can fuck over everyone on gibs (especially seniors on SS). These (((tricks))) are the only reason I expect the clown world to continue and keep getting worse until we're all starving and willingly eat the bugs. Captcha: v2GAH

>>49872435
So if I buy $1000 worth of those bonds in two years the government will pay me back $1032? Or $1066? Someone explain how this works please

>>49872463
>market expects x rate
>fed raises rate as expected
>market continues to dump
>continues to say "ackshually, it's priced in" every time a new rate hike is coming

>>49872435
tell me you're a fucking idiot without telling me you're a fucking idiot

>>49873275
high interest mean higher risk in general, risk is a cost to carry. So pricing bonds is all about risk

>>49875245
Well done, rest of this thread is trash

>>49875923
Higher growth / better options to invest.
High rates are good.
Low rates are for bailing out a fake economy.

>>49875245
Retard here. Can you explain to me why OP is a fag and what your post means. You can skip the part about CPI being fake and gay. Everyone with half a brain knows that

>>49875812
For long duration securities (anything over a year), you are paid a twice-yearly coupon which is half the yield, and then the face value is paid at maturity

so if you buy $1000 worth of 10-year bonds at 3%, every 6 months for the next 10 years you will get $15, and then you'll get the $1000 at the very end

the actual interest paid is only adjusted in 1/8th% increments, so to fine tune yields to several decimal places, the bond may sell at a discount to the face value to imply a slightly higher yield

>>49876103
for short duration securities (4 weeks to 52 weeks), the yield is entirely based on the discounted price from face value

for example, today a $100 26-week bill auctioned for $98.79, which implies a yield of 2.453%

>>49876029
> high rates are good

false, also too low are not good. The right path for sustainable growth is thin

>>49876103
Ah thanks mate
But isn't that a good thing, don't they want those yields to be higher again to curb inflation

>>49872435

>>49872435
Bonds go down bc China, Japan, India etc all dump their US treasuries now that they know they are at risk of being confiscated at any time by the US.

>>49872435
The higher the best once they do ycc we cross the threeshold to a new world controlled by cryptoautists and local european warlords post eu collapse.

>>49873790
you should have already known that everyone here is dumb af

>>49873289

>>49874150
But but biz said trump and Biden were the same!!!! Reeee!!!!

>>49874111
numbers dont lie , printer goes back on next month