/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>49813956
I think it goes without question that we are in the capitulation stage of the market just like 2018. Dont expect it to go down forever. Just think objectively

>>49813978
We’re in the early stages of a global recession. If you think Bitcoin will suddenly detach itself from the Nasdaq you are living in a fantasy land.

The largest investment bank in the world, JPM, aren’t touching touchs and are sitting on $500B waiting for equities to plummet.
The largest asset manager in the world, Blackrock, has said they are staying away from equities for the next 6-12 months.
The largest hedge fund in the world has opened massive short positions on stocks.

I know a lot of schizos here theorize that they are only saying that to fleece retail, but the storm we are headed into is clear for everyone to see

>>49813978
It took 2 years to go from 2018 to 2020 though.
And There was a second bottom after the "initial" 6k bottom, it was another 2k (30%) down and lasted a few months or something.

>>49813978
>I think it goes without question that we are in the capitulation stage
I think same. Many people on ct disagree though (which is a good thing). Although I cannot gauge if they're serious or trolling cause to me it's a bit ridiculous to think this is either not the bottom or at least very close to it.

We had the worst week since the 2020 crash, on top of coming after basically 11 red weeklys in a row.

>>49814080
I believe it will unfortunately. The fundamentals of BTC never changed...

>>49814119
all investment firms are offloading their riskiest assets first and foremost so they have more liquidity on hand when the stock market starts nosediving for real. remember that the fed is not even close to finished raising rates

>>49813956
300 day moving average which was almost touched in 2020 is around 16k too

>>49814127
What are the 'fundamentals' of 1 bitcoin that makes it worth a MINIMUM of $16k?

>>49814080
>He's trying to reason with bitfucks
Bitfuck permabulls are schizos who unironically believe in the "cycle" and TA over reality.

>>49814127
The only thing that made Bitcoin viable was reckless QE from the fed. Now that it stopped there is literally no reason for the price to go up, and thats why everybody is selling. Even bagholders admit that the only reason they hold is because they think the fed has to restart QE. But that could be a year, 5 years or even 10 years from now. Who would want their money trapped in a crabbing bitcoin for 10 years when there is a firesale in the stock market?

>>49813956
>muh Fibonacci lines

lmao

>>49813956
bitcoin has only gon down 76%
it previous cylces it went down 85%

this cycle the economy is crashing, so i expect it to lose more than 76%, up to about 90%

>>49814221
bait
>>49814191
dont think its bait just a severe brainlet moment
>>49814349
my view on btc is that as the halvenings end and adoption peaks, we will never see volatility like this ever again. we've seen the returns diminish each cycle, and I think its reasonable we see the bear market retraces diminish too. This will continue to diminish in both directions until the halvings are complete + some time after. A 90% drop in btc just isnt based in reality in my opinion. Its way too cheap, there are too many big players in this market now to allow it to fall to such a price. It would be bought up far before.

>>49813956
16k cannot be the bottom because this is where I would make my first mill with the short I held from 60k

I also believe the stage is set for the next cycle to be a huge one. By 2024-25 an insane amount of adoption will have taken place. For example you'll have crypto tied into every video game, FIFA, COD, everything by then. It will be something the average person will be interacting with daily and I believe interaction with cryptocurrency is the best method of understanding just how convenient and valuable it really is. The options for people to buy will be vast and regulated by 2025, thus the barriers to entry will be lower than ever. I believe theres a strong argument for an insane next run however its a few years off.

>>49814613
>in 2-3 years all games will have crypto
Let's not get too ahead of ourselves...

>>49813956
0 is the mathematically correct bottom

>>49815162
i have insider knowledge regarding fifa and cod. competitors cant afford to lose out on the extra revenue those who adopt nfts etc will bring in

>>49814221
>But that could be a year, 5 years or even 10 years from now.
They will restart it 6 months before the next US presidential election at the very latest, probably earlier than that like mid-2023. Globohomo doesn't want more populists, left or right, causing ruckus. That trumps everything.

>>49815282
Sure you do.

But what about the Bizonacci confluence?

>>49815308
must suck to have no friends in high places

>>49815342
XD

TA doesn't work bro

>>49815342
I don't need friends, my uncle works at Nintendo.

>>49815495
it's a pretty reasonable assumption that nfts will be adopted into mainstream media one day considering the value they have accrued in such a short space of time

Cherry-picking to fit your concluson

>>49815547
Yeah one day for sure, that's not the point. The little retard is claiming 3 years and insider knowledge and that all the big games will do it. That's just bagholder delusion. Probably gonna take 5-10 years before any of the bigger games even consider it.

>>49815608
less than 6 months, not 3 years.

Bro as if I would buy when it could go lower. I'm just not going to buy until I know the bottom is in and then I'll come here and pretend I timed it perfectly. Kek I laugh at idiots who thinks buying now is a good idea

>>49815578
other conclusions welcome

>>49814127
>I believe it will
then why it didn't?

>>49814119
>people on ct
ct?

>>49814080
>The largest investment bank in the world, JPM, aren’t touching touchs and are sitting on $500B waiting for equities to plummet.
where to see if they are starting to buy?

>>49815699
because it hasnt happened yet

>>49813956
>Please review BTCs previous cycles for fib confluence if you think its all cap.

technicians continue being retarded witch doctors

If you dont like technical analysis heres some statistical analysis for you. Bottom indicator is historical volatility. Volatility is mean reverting thus periods of low volatility as shown by the bands on the indicator are followed by volatility increasing as it returns to mean. The bands last printed in 2018/19 prior to and marking the end of the capitulation event to 3k. This again suggests we have capitulated already. The move down is almost over. Compare to previous cycles, very similar

>>49813956
Absolutely retard take. It's not the bottom until Dow is 2009 levels.

>>49813956
this is not how you use fib levels to assess the bottom of a (former) uptrend. You set the base of the fib level at the very beginning of the uptrend. For me, that's the capitulation in march 2020. You set the top of the fib levels at the market top. The resulting levels are theses for potential bottoms of a retracement of the uptrend. FYI, the .786 retracement level--- the lowest possible level for retracement--- is at 17.8k which is where this bounce has occurred.

>>49815282
Is it your uncle?

>>49813956
Cope. Diamond support at 19,200

>>49816009
>if you don't believe in TA here's some more TA
Tell me why BTC will detach from the traditional markets while everything else continues to dump.

>>49816630
that is not TA that is statistics but im glad you cant tell the difference it confirms to me that you are in fact a midwit and i love getting paid by midwits. why would i tell you anything midwit

>>49816477
false, please refer to the entire 2018 cycle drawing top to bottom. fits perfectly without argument. as soon as the .618 was broken the bullrun commenced.

>>49815547
It will, for sure, considering the pace it is. One thing that has caught my attention lately about NFT is its use in the Otto blockchain as a user's identity profile. The network relies on it in such a way to maintain user data privacy and signal to others that the user is verified while interacting. quite unique.

>>49813956
You sperm burping TA faggots never stop do you.

>>49816020
Any basis for this? I don't want to feed my brain with unnecessary assumptions. My buy zone for ETH, BNB, and also FWT that keeps building and upgrading despite the bear markets remaining fixed.

>>49813956
16600 is also the 300 WMA
that's where I have my biggest buy order

>>49818297
>>>49816009

>>49814491
Couldn't answer the question could you? Enjoy your bags

>>49816923
Do you use fib time zone? It fits close to perfectly with all the bottoms, assuming we will bottom out in the next 2-3 months. What is really interesting that the bottom after this one will occur in 2029.

>>49818366
I don't teach special needs classes you'll have to do some basic research on your own little guy

>>49814491
>my view on btc is that as the halvenings end and adoption peaks, we will never see volatility like this ever again. we've seen the returns diminish each cycle, and I think its reasonable we see the bear market retraces diminish too. This will continue to diminish in both directions until the halvings are complete + some time after. A 90% drop in btc just isnt based in reality in my opinion. Its way too cheap, there are too many big players in this market now to allow it to fall to such a price. It would be bought up far before.

This same bulltard cope was given as the reasoning why we'd never see severe selloffs again going forward and why the price would never fall below X level. All of those projections have gone laughably wrong. There is absolutely no reason to believe this cope will save btc from falling lower. Muh supercycle. Muh institutions with diamond hands. All incredibly, totally wrong.

A lot of crypto participants, myself included, have taken for granted that crypto does not exist in a vaccum. Perhaps it did in the early years but the double-edged sword of "muh institutional adoption" is that crypto and btc in particular becomes more and more ingrained in the traditional financial system as it is held by more and more traditional financial firms. Congrats, you're now part of broader portfolio rebalancing decisions which means you correlate more and more to tradfi markets, and the macro that drives tradfi markets. You don't get to have your cake and eat it too. You don't get to have institutional adoption while remaining uncorrelated to the macro drivers that influence those institutions. Perhaps the only positive silver lining of those same institutions puking their positions is that we become slightly less correlated to broad macro forces over time. But this will not be immediate.

I know exactly when crypto will rebound. It's going to be exactly when you normie faggots are out of this market for good. Seethe.

Remember friends, it's not too late to board the GME train! If you lost everything in Crypto you can still probably scrape together enough for 1 or 2 GME shares.

It literally doesn't matter if you have X shares or XXXXX shares, if you sell at 210 or if you sell at 210,000,000,000. The squeeze is going to hit and reddit has decided to hold for an infinity pool and see just how high the numbers can go. Whether you participate with any of your shares or not, this is happening when we squeeze, and no amount of bitching and moaning in these threads will do literally a single thing about it, except to make sure that the bitchers and the moaners are the only people GUARANTEED to miss out on the top.

>>49813956
Celsius will need to be liquidated and it’s sacrifice will begin the crab market.

>>49819233
At what price do they get liquidated now?

>>49814080
>tells everyone they’re not buying
>meanwhile they are buying as people sell in the panic they created by saying they’re not buying

This is how these guys work. You bet your ass they’re buying if they say they’re not.

>>49813956
Screencap this. 12,574.75 will be the bottom in July, then 10k for August...

>>49819244

Is it 14k anon?

>>49815718
crypto twitter = CT

>>49815282
who the hell would use crypto in games? the transaction fees are the price of the fking full game or even higher lmao.

>>49816630
Because the boomer stocks are slow doesn't mean btc will continue to -10k below zero just to stop at the same time with them, retard. Newfag?

>>49820352
KEK

>>49820275
You really think you're big brained by just putting those lines there. You really think that's logical somehow. Lmao.

>>49820352
Off chain, side chain, low tx cost tokens... It's already being used in games to various extents, whether those are crypto scams or not.
Ex: ev.io

>>49820438

>>49814080
Globally we have not seen the worst that is yet to come. Anyone screaming for a bullrun is just desperate and greedy. You want an easy way out. Not gonna happen. This implosion is barely getting started.

>>49814613
We were supposed to have flying cars by now. Stfu. No offense but crypto is Las Vegas in the form of internet digital coins. Use cases do not matter, neither does muh decentralized p2p money anymore. CBDC are looming. Only a matter of time before the game is over.

>>49813956
BASED. WAGMI

Here's the real bottom: whenever the bottom of the upcoming recession is.
It's not at any support line or any of that other bullshit.

>>49813956
9k is the bottom

>>49820352
brainlet

>>49813956
it's a bull trap, no matter how much whales manipulate the market, there is not going to be a great influx of new money. It's not a zero sum game, lots of money was just evaporated. Even those whales that sold at the top and have traded well don't have enough collective cash to pump bitcoin anywhere near it's former peak, it's really over this time around.

>>49813956
lol this guy is still so bullish kek
BTC was created in 2009 - QE started
We have QT now something that has never really happend since BTC came into existence it dropped from 6k to 3k when the fed raised rates in the end of 2018. What do you think happen when the fed will keep raising rates till 2023? don't forget that BTC is worthless if you are being honest to yourself.

>>49814084
it took barely a year actually

>>49821092
This is the kind of thing you hear at the bottom though so I'm inclined not to believe you

>>49816009
yea dude TA definitely works on bitcoin all the fucking time
how new are you?

>>49813956
somewhat agree, $16,500 area is when i’ll probably re-enter

>>49813956
in a perfect world where there is no financial bullshit going on to further push the price down this would be the bottom with a quick scamwick to 15k
I think it could go as low as 10k but in a slower pace than what happened at 30k
>>49814080
someone kept posting the financial cycle shit and 2023 was supposed to be the bottom
Im not worried since everything has already been sold or staked so im just waiting to buy in