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/biz/ - Business & Finance

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49807206 No.49807206 [Reply] [Original]

For a number of reasons this time really is different, but I’ll lay out the main ones:

1. Extremely tight correlation with tech stocks (many tech stocks are now below their March 2020 lows, Facebook is getting close to it)
2. “Cycle theory” broken, Bitcoin goes below previous all time high. 2017 investors have had extremely poor returns from Bitcoin
3. General public sentiment—switched from “Bitcoin is dead/irrelevant” to “Bitcoin might go down a lot, but I guarantee it will be higher in 5 years because it only goes up!”

There also seems to be a huge rotation out of tech stocks in general, possibly shifting out of the 10 year long paradigm we were in before, now energy and raw material stocks appear to be the play. High investment in these sectors could possibly lead to a more “industrialized” economy in the US, especially with Republicans poised to come back in power in a big way, they will likely focus heavily on energy independence and having a stable, functioning supply chain if inflation is especially persistent. Bitcoin feels more like an epiphenomenon of an era of extremely easy credit, not an alternative to the existing financial system. It was born from policy choices in 2008, perhaps it will fade into irrelevance without much of a whimper as those policies also go away.

>> No.49807447

>>49807206
So crypto is dead? I heard we need to stay at this opinion point for a year before there is a chance to go back up.

>> No.49807469
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49807469

>>49807206
>ABLOOBLOOBLOO BITCOIN IS DEAD FOR REAL THIS TIME
Shut the fuck up, faggot.

>> No.49807497

>>49807206
>Paying $1 for imaginary coins
Yup heard it all before, always wrong to. The people who bought BTC at $1 are now rich and the people laughing at them are still poor.

>> No.49808688

The fact we're below the 2017 ATH completely destroys the "rising cycles" theory of BTC and the whole underlying theory of crypto as an inflation hedge that's supply limited.

You're delusional however if you think we're seeing a return to stable fiat in this country or industrial production. The worst of both worlds are coming: no safe asset class with spiraling of currency inflation