/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>49750844
and how do I short real estate ?

>>49750865
puts on IYR

>>49750913
Nice ty

Fine.

>>49750865
Credit default swaps

Looks like it's time to buy a house soon.

The inadvertant point of this chart is that interest rates aren't even this high. The rates in <2008 were higher and the bubble was in full force back then.

>>49751182
The problem is that it only goes up from here. Expect 10% interest rates by the end of the year.

>>49751041

Enjoy your 8% interest rate. You need money to capitalize on a housing crash which zoomers obviously don’t have. Maybe in another 10 years.

That’s the whole point, to crush demand for goods and services so inflation subsides. These Twitter faggots are so dramatic

>>49750844
I own a home but it's painfully obvious prices are going to start falling on homes. At least in areas like mine that aren't big suburban metro areas with no room to build on.

>>49750844
i did a small calculation yesterday. 1980 median family income and 1980 median home price and 1980 average mortgage rate vs the same shit today. in terms of monthly payments it's about the same (monthly mortgage obligation on a median home, as a percentage of median family income) today was it was in 1980. it was unaffordable back then, it's unaffordable today. prices are going to come down, hard.

>>49751326
oh nice anon
good to know

>>49751236
I've been saving every month for almost 10 years. One of the silver linings of housing increasing fast enough that I could never pull the trigger is that by the time houses become affordable again (1-2 years) i will have enough money to buy a house with cash
>but you're wasting your capital!
>you could've invested in X, leveraged Y, and shorted Z!!!!!!
I want to have a house and not worry about mortgage payments every month.

>buy house with cash
>run by businesses from home part time
>semi-retired in 40s

>>49751317
House prices are going to fall to the point where locals can buy again.
Many areas of the country have such fucked up housing that only programmers, doctors, and carpetbaggers can afford houses. That is simply not sustainable. Prices will have to drop low enough that people working in the local economy can afford a house.

>median wage is 30k
An area like that can't support houses that cost 350k. They need to drop back down to around 200k like it was in 2018. At a minimum we are looking at housing gains for the last 4 years getting wiped out.

>>49750844
Random who on Twitter vs reality. The house two blocks down from me had an open house 4 days ago and the cars of people that showed up to attend it filled our entire neighbourhood side park.

>>49751581
I'm not seeing that at all anymore in my area. Where do you live?

>>49751581
>that niggerbrain who can't comprehend things he can't see with his own two eyes

>>49751236

It's not too late. Any zoomie without a down payment should drop everything they're doing and deliver cheeseburgers until they have it.

>>49751317
That's fine. My zillow estimate went from 130k to 220k in 4 years. That's insane. My 3k lake lot I also own increased in taxed value all the way to 30k.

>>49751571
it doesn't need to be sustainable, that's the point, Blackrock and all the other big "investors" can borrow infinite money at 0.5% interest and use it to buy up all these houses and then rent them out, all in the name of making everyone into the new modern serfs.

>>49751571
>Prices will have to drop low enough that people working in the local economy can afford a house.

haha, never happen, prices only drop to where speculators exit, but stll unaffordable for 80% of locals

>>49751793
But zillow also says it rents for $1200 a month but is worth $220,00? My mortgage wit taxes and all that sheeeeit is $1079 on a $130k purchase price.

>>49750844
There has never been a better time to buy OR sell. Housing prices WILL NOT drop. Supply is so low that aggregate demand falling will have ZERO impact. Get yourself a comfy wfh job and move to Best Virginia.

>>49752004
>Supply is so low that aggregate demand falling will have ZERO impact
wow, who knew that housing was immune to basic supply and demand economics

>>49752049
supply is low because people locked in rates below 3% and have such low carrying costs they can never sell, these keeps supply low enough that demand will always be more than supply and keep housing high, blame the fed for the ultra low rates forever fucking the market, average rates are now over 7%.

>>49751290
>That’s the whole point, to crush demand for goods and services so inflation subsides
Construction is the canary in the macroeconomic coal mine. It cuts through all of the noise. Any significant changes in the industry are extremely important.

You would be a fool to ignore this info if it is true, no matter what sectors you're in.

>>49752113
supply is going to decrease as builders shut down or back out of projects. demand is going to decrease a lot harder as people qualify for less credit. rates going from 3% to 6.5% represents a 50% increase in monthly or total repayments.

>>49751571
Is there some magic law that says average people need to be able to afford a house?
The average person used to not be able to afford a car, or a refrigerator or a TV. The powers that be don't want you to own a home, so most people won't.

>>49752905
>Is there some magic law that says average people need to be able to afford a house?
A person's ability to own and maintain their own land frees them from service to a lord. So yes, it's really fucking important you idiot, unless you unironically want to be an actual peasant again.

>>49753374
I didn't say it wasn't important I just said it's not some fucking law of physics.
>unless you unironically want to be an actual peasant again
That's exactly what's going to happen though. Worse actually, because most peasants still owned their farm and paid less in taxes than we do now.

accellerate

>>49753442
>I didn't say it wasn't important I just said it's not some fucking law of physics.
Gotcha. Ok.
The extremely short answer is that modern republics depend on a working class (i.e., makes their livings via service rather than holdings) that owns a certain critical mass of real property in order to function -- in part because land ownership frees you from a lot of undue influence that you might otherwise experience.
When you fall below that critical mass, you get >>49753451

>>49750865
>he didn't short NAIL
it's not too late but the downside isn't as great anymore

>>49751041
No, the train left the station on that in 2020, maybe early-mid 2021. Prices were already fucked in early 2021 but only got worse, now rates are hiking.
Prices will start bottoming out in about 10 years as boomers really start aging out but rates will probably not be as good as they were in 2019-2021 for a loooong time.
Honestly being a young-20s zoomer isn't a bad play right now, rent, hussle and start saving for the downpayment and the market should be looking pretty good by the time you're in your mid-late 20s, early 30s. 30 something millennials who didn't already buy a house probably never will now though.

>>49754068
>30 something millennials who didn't already buy a house probably never will now though
yep, millennials are going to be the angriest generation in a long, long time. Imagine a lost generation the size of the Boomers.

>>49754247
Yep. I lucked out and got a house early in 2021. Overpaid by probably 15-20% on what the house would be worth in a non-insane market but it's a coastal area. I don't expect to be put underwater, but even if I am I don't intend to move for a long time so it doesn't matter. Locking in the 3% rate was more important than anything in my mind. Prices skyrocketed after I bought it too. 1 month later I wouldn't have been able to afford this place.

>>49754068
>Prices will start bottoming out in about 10 years
Why do you believe it will occur this slowly?
The 2007-8 housing crash bottomed out by 2011.

zoom out retard

>>49750865
If you don't have an account with at least $25,000, you probably can't trade options. But, you can get an inverse ETF. Direxion 's DRV ETF is leveraged inverse Real Estate.

>>49751581
Cope

No seriously, it probably was all realtors

>>49750844
If only you knew ...

>>49754068
They cant buy a house in 10years because? They could save the same if not more on the 10years

>>49755236
There's a major demographic drive that wasn't present in 08. Boomers dying, aging out of their homes and moving into assisted living/in with their children will create a glut on the market. The bottom of the imminent bubble burst crash will not be the bottom of the market.

>>49756465
Millennials have jack shit for savings at this point and not many people buy their first home in their 40s or 50s, at that point a 30 year mortgage isn't getting paid off before you retire. Hence why late 20s-early 30s are prime house buying years.

Have around 100k cash and can probably stack 100-200k a year and then grab some investment properties. Only thing is I hate having so much cash sitting there, if it’s just for a couple of years not terrible I guess. What else do I put my money into? Maybe a CD or savings account?

>trust me bro