/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>49653031
explain why.

>>49653054
All investment banks want to sell their mortgage contracts. Today overall price fell almost 30% for mortgage backed securities. It's a fire sale. Just like the movie "margin call" or "the big short" all over again.

>>49653097
why do they want to sell their contracts? is this some kind of gay last-one-out type scenario?

So when do forclosed houses start flooding the market

>>49653226
because normies making 50k a year with a 600k mortgage are going to default on their homes when lending rates stay above 5% for an extended period of time and a recession gets people laid off in a shitty job market.

>>49653226
Real estate prices skyrocketed in the last 15 months. Some places it x13 from previous years. Idiotic boomers still buying them on mortgages and now they are not able to afford their mortgage payments. It all crumbles together. All their reserves in crypto and ETFs is melting away and they are losing their security margins.

>>49653299
Two more weeks tops, anon.

>>49653031
Good. Fuck America. It gets what it deserves.

>>49653031
everyone is expecting it dude that should tell you what will really happen. sell me your everything bags

>>49653307
Most mortgages are fixed rate anon. They aren't effected by rate changes. People making 50k a year can't get 600k loans either.
Your scenario does have some validity but it has nothing to do with loan qualification and mortgage rates. Many people did buy at the edge of their means. What will hurt them will be simple inflation and their credit card debt which does see rate changes as interest rates go up.

Real estate is always safe, this is just millennial hopium that the prices come down, what they don't realise is 'boomers' don't need to sell.

>>49654720
this, if you actually look at the data you have people who own vacant homes for many years, some of them in good neighborhoods, and absolutely refuse to sell even when the properties need work they have no intention of doing and could actually increase the supply and bring prices down

>>49654720

You don't need all of them to sell the foreclosure rate in 2008 was only about 2%. Shit cascades, my guy. The whole system is a house of cards.

>>49655236
Ah finally, someone on here who understands how thin a veil this illusion is. It doesnt take much to send it all tumbling down. We’ve all seen it before, whether we admit it or not (unless youre really young)

>>49654720
Flipping HELOCs into down payments for additional overpriced rental properties is always safe.

>>49654720
I own my home outright but you are absolutely fucking delusional. I hope you bought the top

>>49653299
Not for awhile, Almost 85% of new homes in my area are already paid for with cash, And they're all from California.

>>49655569
Cash offer doesn't mean no mortgage. Look up "delayed financing" and "HELOC". These "cash buyers" are going to be insolvent in six months.

>>49654720
>'boomers' don't need to sell.
What do you think is going to happen when boomers' retirement savings get yeeted into the fucking sun you mongoloid cunt? I know this board is utterly beyond help but come on man...

>>49654676

God I hate people like you that are fucking blind to the situation that most working class Americans are in.

Gas tripled. Groceries doubled. All the people that were house poor that got in because they were afraid of losing out are now using credit cards to pay their monthly bills. Yes, the rates will stay the same but those people aren't going to be able to stay afloat month to month with no end in sight to inflation and energy prices.

There's also a food shortage coming where you're going to see 10x on grains and other items. You're a fucking faggot and you eat $20 microgreens and onions but for most people in the low and middle classes are completely fucked.

The mortgages are fucking bad. It's all assholes who had no business taking the mortgages that they did and now that their monthly expenses are doubling and tripling it's all coming the fuck down.

Before you say some fucking faggot nigger cunt replay like is about to come out of your fucking faggot midwit mouth go look at consumer credit increases and savings rates then come back.

>>49654676
Its mostly for flippers, airbnbfags, and heloc fags thatll get fucked though I do know quite a few normals thay got arms instead of conventional because they're retards

>>49655666
Satan's right boys

>>49655706
Any pro tips?

>>49655864

Yeah don't be overexposed and cut all the expenses you can now to survive this.

>>49655864
Mock normies and boomers who dug themselves into a hole in the hope they respond violently and you can sue them into suicide, that's what I'll be doing.

Seeing a lot of 25k price cuts in my area (midwest). If someone were "house poor" the smartest thing to do would be sell their house ASAP and get out while they can. But obviously most will think their jobs are secure and they'll always be able make their 3k a month mortgage. A few months out of work and most of these people are fucked.

>>49655666
digits say it's over

>>49653031

Housing market won't crash anon. It just won't.

>>49655864
Stockpile sugar(not syrup, SUGAR, it has WAY more chemical value than syrup) not for survival on sugar for 4 years but because sugar is extremely tradeable and most industrial candy factories will shut down, leaving people craving.

You did strengthen your bartering skills through these years, right /biz/?

>>49655706
>consumer credit increases and savings rates then come back

Holy fuck savings rates are plummeting. I disagree with 10x increase on grains since the US is a grain exporter, but you're onto something, anon.

>>49655706
The poors deserve their fate. Now fuck off back to plebbit, commie.

>>49655864

All depends on your circumstance and goals, but >>49655913 is on point. Cut expenses, buy shit you will need now, and learn to make your own if you enjoy things like beer.

Anyone who is serious should be side gigging. You should be grabbing every bit of cash and earning opportunity you can before they go poof. Winners and losers are decided by who doesn't go bankrupt and who gets to buy up their defaulted assets for pennies on the dollar.

>>49653325
Boomers invest in crypto?

>>49655548
>tfw almost did buy the top but trusted my gut instead
I am so happy that I exited all markets instead.

>>49654720
>t. just bought a $1.2m suburban cardboard goyshed

>>49655236
2008 was a different situation
Not even remotely comparable

>>49655664
Not all of them. My parents paid in actual cash for a new build on a half-acre lot. They told us that they want to set us up for the future when they die and that inheriting debt is the last thing they want. I'm gonna miss them so much when they do go bros.

>>49656331
yeah, we were way better off overall in 2008.

>>49656120
honey will last indefinitely if properly stored.

>>49655706
Most people are still blind to the food shortage coming. Here's something to tickle your taint:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-06-13/us-quietly-urges-russia-fertilizer-deals-to-unlock-grain-trade

I wonder how bad they project it's going to be given they are actually walking back on sanctions with Russia, for not just anything, but FERTILIZER.

Next year there is going to be a global famine.

>Leaf mortgage payments already doubled this year.
>5yr fixed is very popular in Canada.
>Boomers HELOCs are variable rates that are also about to explode.
>That's on top of inflation.

>>49656371
Quite the opposite.
In 2008 it wasn't just some random boomers buying overpriced houses, but actual financial institutions holding awful contracts. At one point some banks were actually holding the estate themselves in the hopes that it'll go up forever.

>>49653299
Eh interest rates were so low that most people that bought a house can afford their monthly payment to avoid foreclosure.

>>49656441
We didn't have record inflation, food shortages, or energy shortages in 2008 you braindead motherfucker.

>>49656331

You're right.

https://youtu.be/-SPt2LS6ONk

It was a glorious time to be alive. This one won't be so friendly.

>>49655913
Ok, my house and I don't look very valuable and I don't got a mortgage to worry about, so cutting expenses should be easy. Gotta get some guns, if it's not too late.
>>49655975
Maybe as a very far backup plan.
>>49656120
>>49656285
Sugar/Honey, Rice, and Beans it is.
Thanks for all the tips, hopefully we all make it.

>>49656658
it lines up so perfectly! amazing

>>49656419
im a leaf two years into a 5 year fixed, whats the worst that coule happen to me? I'm up a solid 300k on a house i bought for 600k so i could just sell it before i get rekt by rates in three years no? Isn't there a max a fixed can change when its up?

I just bought a 30 year old 300 sq foot apartment in Toronto for $900k wtf man why does everything have to crash.

>>49656419
I feel like the Canadian housing market is definitely going to collapse well before the American one. I'm always reading stories about grandmas selling their small home for millions of dollars just because it's near Toronto or wherever. Seems like you have to be either rich or a Chinese investment company to buy a house in Canadaland

>>49655739
>>49655666
Checked and true

>>49656844

Mead is incredibly easy to make. 15 pounds of honey makes 5 gallons (25 wine bottles) at about 15% ABV, and you can get 60 pounds for about $200 bulk. It's a little over $2 per bottle + about $50-100 for the glassware to get started. Cider is just as easy, beer slightly harder.

Whatever you enjoy consuming see if there's a way to make it yourself. I've been mixing my own pre-work supplements, shakes, and energy drinks for years now. I'm not some "anti-processed food" Nazi, I'd just rather combine the ingredients myself to save the cash. You can even trade with other brewers if you've got a local community.

Highly recommend you get on ally he side gigging apps. Those businesses might go poof, but you'd much rather have access to that work before they shut off applications for it. So long as at least one of the 6 services stays up I can always make some amount of money.

>>49656288
No boomers I know invest in crypto. They all have houses and loaded MFs.

Then again, I wouldn't touch crypto if you got a sloppy beej from Asa Akira with every purchase. Fuck that shit.

>>49657025

Better to go busto now than to have equity built. I don't know if tax law protects retirement accounts in Canada, but you can always shunt money into that then declare bankruptcy if your shit implodes.

>>49657028
>I feel like the Canadian housing market is definitely going to collapse

Nope, don't bet on it. The Canadian real estate market is a hedge for every crooked SOB with a few million out there. We launder billions in foreign crime dollars through our real estate market. Instability will only driver prices up.

Guara-fucken-teed.

Just watch, if a few too many start defaulting starting next year, the government will step in and control interest rates.

>>49654720
this. zoomers are on some copium

>>49655474
This is exactly what my parents are planning on doing

Nohomer cope is always enjoyable to read

>>49656658
all the idiots fomo-ing on the missed opportunity of dumping their turd at a premium

>>49657292
>it's afraid

>>49657093
imma make some jailhouse sangria with fruit and a trash bag

>>49653031
Which boomers? Working class 30-40 year olds? Yeah we're fucked. We've been fucked since we were born, we inherited a world of shit and a doomed economy. Maybe we'll fix it for you zoomers so you can give your grandchildren a future (because your kids are fucked too), maybe we won't and we'll all fucking die when the food runs out and the coasts flood.

If you mean actual retirees? Nah they're untouchable. They got theirs. They aren't invested in anything risky because they're about to fucking die anyway.

>>49657469

Shit's great. 08 was a pretty good time to be alive. Everyone was struggling but we were struggling together. Nobody could afford to go out as much, so we all threw more house parties. Hell of a lot more social cohesion at the time. No clue if it will play out the same way, but I threw some kickass parties with my $1 mead bottles (shit was cheaper then).

>>49657777
>They aren't invested in anything risky because they're about to fucking die anyway.
literally the definition of being retired.

>>49654676
>Most mortgages are fixed rate anon.
Do you realize fixed rate cuckgage terms can be changed at any time to save the system from "systemic risk"? overleveraged fags that think they are lifehacking on fixed rates are retarded. Not to mention
>raises your property tax
get fucked.

Because their shitcoins crashed all the zoomers in her think real estate will too

>>49657777

>>49657777
Quads of truth

>>49657028
No. An gov accountant told me our entire nation is held up by housing.
All it means is even more immigration to match the numbers (ie a grand conspiracy to brown us)

>>49658085
On the bright side, we got to grow up with cool 90s shit.

DID THE FUCKING BANKERS LEARN NOTHING FROM 2008? WHY ARE THE FUCK ARE THESE INBRED RETARDS ALLOWED TO CONTINUALLY FUCK UP THE ECONOMY.

I FUCKING HATE BANKERS SO MUCH ITS UNREAL

>>49655706
how do we stop poor people from buying houses?
it will ruin their lives but they are too stupid to realize it

>>49653031
I was talking about this the other day. I remember when Freddie, Fannie, and AIG hit the wall. First time I saw pure panic on all of the talking heads.


>>49653054
Short version of the 2008 version..
> big bubble, debt, inflated prices
> CDO's and "synthetic mortgages"
> all hedged, and cross-hedged, and double secret probation hedge
> except for two problems...
> all of their mortgage debt traced back to freddie and fannie as the back stop
> and everyone used the same company (AIG) as their insurance carrier against "catastrophic failure"
> but guess what... even more deadbeats than they expected
> too much for anyone to handle
> collapse of freddie and AIG
> oops... you didn't know you were working without a net?
> full freakout, across the board
> there is no bottom, there is no backstop

The full power of the freakout (and I wish I could find the CNBC video), was with the first bailout vote failed. That was supposed to stop the bleeding. Instead, you had millionaire finance people looking around, not sure if anyone would survive

>>49656504
so what?

>>49653299
They will go straight to Blackrock. You will own nothing.

>>49655706
Just eat the heckin bugs and drive a heckin electric car and you won’t get hit by inflation

>>49657017
The value of your collateral drops significantly (the house) and Jew banks start modifying the terms of your "fixed deal".

>>49658847
there's nothing that says that Blackrock would survive; and a lot to say they wouldn't. (I'd have to look at their financials.

Their house of cards is that they need prices to stay high. As soon as they drop, they have to book losses and their stock collapses. And if you learn anything about the market, it's this:
> there is never enough money to double-down enough times to break even

>>49655706
you sound mad anon. And the reddit spacing just makes you look unhinged. It only serves to make you look like a faggot. Do better

>>49656168
Farmanon here. Shits bleak. Shits been bleak. Even before all this other crap anons were posting on both here and /pol/ back in March of last year that agriculture was looking sketchy because sale prices of crops were 1/3 what they were in fucking 1970 while costs were up as much as 3000% (three fucking thousand percent) for some things.

If things don't change where we are heading there will be people joking nostalgically about when eggs were only $18/dozen. Chicken feed is already up 42%.

>>49657919

Where in the fucking security instrument do you see that? Fucking retards don’t know the difference between a HELOC and a 30 year fixed loan. The fixed is fixed, dipshit. You could go underwater $300k and as long as you’re paying each month that’s all that matters. I’m in mortgage.

>>49656469
The point is WERE, while a lot probably have fixed rates, ALOT of people took our helocs in their existing property and those are all NOT fixed, people took out 400k helocs on 500k houses, what do you think happens when they cant pay that heloc anymore

>>49658995
I think he means regulations stepping in and changing rules. That would be one ballsy fucking move.

>>49658972
Could you please just make more chickens! That seems to be the secret!

>>49654676
>what is heloc
They always show these statistics about how 80% of loans are fixed rates and its NOT like 2008, but what they dont show is the amount of helocs people have and those are all variable rates, oh vey

>>49659010
They get bailed out by people who never owned or will own property. Keep whining!

>>49659025
It would be breaking private party contracts not only of the individual mortgage but also the entire tranche of MBS. The people who buy MBS are extremely powerful. This is unlikely for a million reasons.

>>49653031
The nwo literally have been telling us since covid started that it's new normal and it's never going back. This was orchestrated from the start.

>>49656389
imagine a 2008 style financial collapse on top of famine. shit would be cash

>>49657017
>sell in three years
Lol, youre aware if a crash happens your house wont even be worth the 600k anymore? If you want to take profit, do it now

You literally sound like a "what do you mean line can go down" type lmao

>>49659066
>Fixed rate loan
>Inflation makes all of your other cost of living expenses moon
>Inflated Zestimate makes your property tax moon
>No wage growth (in real terms)
>Demand for real estate dumps because of stagflation
>Zestimate drops
>Underwater on mortgage
This isn't even really bad for normies with houses with fixed rate mortgages. It's going to be the investor groups and flipooooors that are left holding bags

>>49659084
Bailed out? Lmao cope, nones gonna bail out overleveraged house flipper

>>49657777
>your grandchildren
Statistically speaking, less than 15% of Millennials and Zoomers will have children.

>>49654312
kill yourself you nigerian russnigger shill, I know it's you

>>49658621
What do you mean? They learned we'd bail them out no matter what.

>>49658823
lel yeah who needs food let them eat bitcoins

>>49653031
they are so clouded in hubris, I can't wait to see them lose everything

>>49658621
>DID THE FUCKING BANKERS LEARN NOTHING FROM 2008?
lol
lmao

>>49658972
>Farmanon here
beets of gtfo

>>49653031
Boomers are already fucked. They're old

>>49657923
They've been throwing everything at the wall in the most childish tantrum I've ever seen since their shitcoins started crashing. Literal coping and seething.

>>49653031
REMINDER,
that the housing crash of 2008 is romanticised fiction as verified by the case shiller index which only corrected a mere 25%

yet,
>a cdo of a cdo
is still
>fucking crazy

>>49653097
gonna need a source on that

You all talk about fixed rate for homes, but what about CMBS? Commercial Mortgage Backed Security did not get the same treatment as Residential did after 2008. What happened durring pandemic? Thousands of companies lost the need for office space as people worked from home, and now are refusing to return. The CMBS are packaged up just like RMBS from 2008 with less regulation and more risk. Then you have SLABS Student Loan Asset Backed Securities which also got packaged up in the same way and are starting to fail with people no longer able to pay their student loans, which is main reason Biden will NEVER forgive student loan debt.

People look at once security and none of the others, everything effects another when you package it all up in derivatives that are worth more than the actual assets. RMBS are likely to start failing at some point, but CMBS are the real ticking time bomb for real estate.

>>49656243
The poors deserve to take back what's been stolen with interest (severed heads and cunny)

>>49658621
>DID THE FUCKING BANKERS LEARN NOTHING FROM 2008?
They learned that they make a shit load of money and that cucked goverments will bail them out.

>>49658621
They've got carte blanche to make the entire country serve their interests or else they crash human society. They've got the entire world by the balls because people refuse to step up and cull them. It'll keep happening until the people getting fucked stand up for themselves and assert dominance.

>>49654676
too many niggers did HELOC loans where they just raised money against their existing properties

I know dudes with regular jobs who have 20+ units in their rental portfolios
will take literally 1 month of no rents for them to blow up completely

also lots of dumbasses took on huge leverage and assumed they'll make it back in the stock/crypto markets.
"I made 200% in 2021 in crypto/stonks, surely I can make enough to cover 1-2 months of rent defaults"

its always the same shit
dumbasses who got too greedy

>>49653031
Just waut until the institutions start dumping their real-estate. Then it will really cascade.

People born in the early 1960s (the last of the baby boomers) are fucked for their retirement. Looks like they won't be taking their early retirement at 62! Lmao

Will rents come down globally?

>>49658621
The government gave them defacto money-making powers. Blame democracy.

>>49655706
if it wasnt for the nogword i would've said you came straight from reddit. probably you did

>>49653307
No one is getting adjustable rate mortgage loans anymore tho.

>>49653097
sauce?

>>49658847
Blackrock isn't going to catch a falling knife you idiot. They're not even a true whale in the market.

>>49656504
Also the social state of society was far healthier.

>>49662871
Rents, house costs, lumber. All of it is going to fall. Lumber has already dumped and will dump another 30%. Homes have dropped 3-10% and have a long way to go. Rents haven't moved much yet because they're a bit sticky. It may be months before they begin to fall.

>>49663544
Rent would most likely be the last thing to fall, and at a slow pace correct? I remember that happening in alot of places in 08'.

>>49663544
>>49663956
>wages 20-30% up in most places
>rents go back to where they were in 2016
Based hope so.

>>49656114
>Housing market won't crash anon. It just won't.

it's literally crashing tomorrow when they raise rates LMFAO

>>49663956
Landlords are quite often flat out required to rent at a high price or risk their lender shoving a fat margin call up their ass. They'll let a property sit empty for six months and cover the costs themselves before eventually capitulating. If the market snaps back then the strat is a win. If we get a two year bleed out then they're eventually fucked and whoever buys their foreclosed or short sold rental will be able to put up a much more reasonable rent.

>>49653299
Never, you stupid goy. We own everything and you are our slave.

>>49663242
Yes they are.
Most loans are “bespoke” meaning they have a lock in period but are subject to rate increases in the future once the teaser rate expires.
>t. Ex wife was a loan officer for a fairly large regional bank.

>>49664113
thabks doc

>>49655706
>se they were afraid of losing out are now using credit cards to pay their monthly bills
Live within your means. Buy a house you can afford, not one that lets you pretend you are rich.

>>49655706
Seethe boomer

>>49658621
then opt out with bitcoin

>>49655706
You reiforved reinforced everything I said. You're the retard here.

>>49657919
>fixed rates are variable bro
You're either a liar or an idiot.

>>49659066
You aren't discussing average home owners here. You are talking about over stretched investors. That's two different groups of people.

>>49662606
You're like the other retards that replied to my post. You don't know wtf you are talkng about. Yes there is group of perosns who over stretched they investments. They do not represent average home owners. Most homeowners didnt max out their credit and bought dozens of houses or whatever your claiming. Go back and read through the line of conversation.
My post stands.

>>49668312
>reiforved
*reinforced

>>49657786
i agree anon i haven't had sex since the obama administration. good times.

>>49663242
Here in potatoland the banks will not issue 30 year fixed rate. They will offer a few years at fixed rate before the variable rate kicks in. This is where refinancing is done to lock in another fixed rate. However, rates are moving up fast so anyone close to the end of their fixed term is in for an increase to their monthly payments. And this at a time when cost of living is squeezing the last of disposable income. On top of that, most families have 2 cars on higher purchase theyve been rolling over every 3or4 years for an upgrade. Shits about to get real.

>>49655706
The only anon ITT that actually gets it and all the niggers are mad about it for some reason.
>>49654676
Credit cards are variable rate and many people are maxing them out, see the most recent consumer credit report.
>>49654720
>leveraging your dick into the dirt is completely safe as long as you do it through real estate
lol ok
>>49656348
Nice parents, unironically.

>>49653031
Nigger we're ALL fucked, THANKS TO boomers.

>>49658674
Lmao you are seriously underestimating the affordability crisis if you think the problem is poor people are buying houses. You're thinking is all wrong. You need to come to terms with the fact that COL itself is making people poor.

>>49653031
good. fuck boomers

>>49669251
I'm shorting the US government but they're doing a scam pump to liquidate me just before it all goes to shit.

>>49653031
baggies kek

>>49658621
Big Short said it best, ripped the mask off during the Bull vs Bear debate scene
>at the end of the day normal people are going to be left paying for all of it
>because they always do

mark my word, right now, Big Macs will NEVER be cheaper.

>>49653031
Holy fuck, it is actually over this time.
First under Obungo and then under sniff'em Biden hahahahahahahahaha
USA buck broken

>>49656348
>My boomers made sure to take care of us children.
Happy that the exception to the rule applied to you.

>>49658621
>imfuckingplying we actually recovered from 2008

Pretty much this >>49657307
Almost every property coming on the market right now in Orlando is some shitty 70s bungalow with original wood paneling, carpet, and fluorescent lights
pic unrelated

>>49664113
Thanks goatsussy doc