/biz/ - Business & Finance

Oh and the 2 and 3 year just inverted the 10.

>>49604559
what is a 1 year government bond, who is buying those, and what does the yield come from?sorry i dont know this stuff

Explain like im retard: whats Yield?

>>49604559
What does this mean and how does it affect crypto?

>>49604633
It's like giving your money to the government for safe keeping. They will pay interest on it and they hold onto it. It's a Jew way to hide from inflation. Since boomers taught us nothing everyone else is shifting here for a bear so they don't lose money when a flash crash happens

>>49604677
>Crypto

It doesn't directly but it'll because ((they)) will take it down to hell with their boomer stocks

>The us gov was a rugpull all along

>>49604677
It's over, that's all you need to know

>>49604559
should be a fun ride

>>49604608
It's unironically over for the US and global economy.

>>49604633
>>49604653
>>49604677

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bond-yield.asp

Alright listen up chum, if you spend ONE day learning about markets and crypto to stop being a poorfag this is it. Read the article, if you don't know a word open a new tab and learn that word, you may have 20 tabs open by the time you can read the first one.

Treasury bonds are you giving the US government money, and them returning that money to you with an interest represented yearly by the yield. When the FED "prints" money it does so mostly by buying these US Treasury bonds from you with newly minted digital cash. This market is $46 trillion cap, that is 46x crypto, traditionally some 3x stock market, these are the "dollar-like" assets all major companies and fucking countries have on their books to pay debts to each other.

The FED sets its rates based on the bond market, the FED rates determine the lower bound of the interest rate on all debt, the cost of all US denominated debt. If the bonds go up, so does the FED rate, so does the price of all debt. That means everything gets more expensive for everyone, which destroys demand. This is by design.

If you're a company that needs debt to cost less than 3% interest because you make 3% margin, rates going from 2% to 2.5% just destroyed half of your gains, 3% destroys all your profit.

If you're a country servicing some retarded 150% debt to gdp ratio and at the end of the chain of financial fuckery is USD then the cost of servicing that just increased exponentially.

Imagine your 2% -> 3% means your rent (cause god knows you're not asking this question if you own a house) just increased 50% overnight. That has happened since start of the year for new, morgages, 3%->5%, it will get worse.

Read, fucking read this article and all links in it, learn these terms well, they steer fucking everything in every market, including crypto. If you don't know this stuff you will be ruined in the coming year.

>>49604979
Developing nations are fucked, third world will be raped by famines, the US and Europe unironically have a good chance of being alright, and if it does get rough it means it will be rough everywhere. There is tiers to the doom scenario, everything is equally likely at this point, but this year will be painful, this much is set in stone.

>>49605077
god bless you sir

i will read and i will stop being a stupid nigger thank you very much

>>49604559
Fed's mandate is not the stock market, nigger, it is inflation and maximum employment
Inflation is currently a problem

>>49605077
damn. I forgot about that perspective. Initially i thought this was a signal of USA having too much debt, that they would have a hard time paying back

>>49604608
unironic nothingburger

>>49605077
i actually know how all these things work and after reading your post i now know less

Fed doesn't set its rates based on bond market. Fed controls reporates
What are you talking about and are you saying things I don't know, or do you just not know yourself? I've become dumber

>>49605077
>This market is $46 trillion cap
fr fr?

>>49604559
Of course they jumped. The fed is going to raise rates. What did you expect was going to happen?

1Y is up another .10% since I made this post. Start paying very good attention.

>>49605316

Education is everything, that is knowing which key factors to look out for and knowing how they interact, why they interact the way they do, and what that means for the system you're investing in.

You don't need a finance degree to know this stuff, you just need to set some time apart to go through it, to really get what these core ideas mean. If you don't you'll be caught with your pants down, if you do you'll know where to be and when not to be. Look up Ray Dalio, watch the animated videos he's made on his yt as a primer, read his books if you have the time, you will become at least twice as good an investor as you are now.

>>49605373
I never implied the FEDs official mandate is the stock market, you absolute negroid. Whatever FED policy crashes the equities market crashes many other things, knock-on effects reach that second mandate, employment, sooner rather than later. The FED as all central banks and all imperial governments in the history of fucking humanity have gone through these cycles. You are a short sighted nigger, I don't know to explain this to you.

>>49605385
The US cannot default on its debt anymore. It already has three times in history, if you which times I am refering to you know more than most people and you will not remain a poorfag if you continue to learn. The US cannot default, but it can only avoid default by inflating the currency supply. All taxes are nothing more than paying US debt, never forget these two things. All Fiat currency is credit, it can be created infinitely.

>>49605564
It is the rate of change that matters, that the market is pricing in a greater hike, and more hikes (13 at this point) than previously, and this this increasing rate destroys the middle soft landing scenario and forces the FED into hard recession / depression or very high inflation, or both. Rates and degrees, these are what matter.

>>49604559
>How long until the entire developing world reliant on US-denominated debt implodes?

That is part of the strategy. They figure US can take a bit of pain and Fed can help allies with swap lines. Those not aligned with US interests will have a really tough time. It is a dollar world, you are just trading in it.

>>49605077
Thanks for the explanation. Retard here that needed a simple Blog Poast about stuffs. All I know is that I am poor with almost no way out anymore.

>>49605685
You say a lot of words anon that make things more complicated than they are

If market prices in 130 rate hikes and 1 year yield has only gone up 25%, what is your problem?

>>49605721

You may not have a way now, but you probably have a way to a way, if you know what I mean. Good luck anon, you'll make it one day.

>>49605685
i don't get your picture.
no it can't default, but at some point, shouldn't the risk outweigh the gain, and people will seek yield elsewhere?

>>49605815
I publish coloring books on Amazon KDP for a living. My sales are completely fucked this week. And from inflation, I'm losing "worth" by the day. I'm just fucked.

>>49605803
in 8 hours. I repeat words to those that have not heard them before so that they know to look them up. If you ever have to tutor people you'll understand.

>>49605855
Yes they will seek yield elsewhere, at the central bank, and investment grinds to a halt and depression follows.

>>49605885
For what it's worth, I think the most likely scenario is the pain will get bad enough fast enough in most places that central banks will have no choice but to return to easing, and things will improve for a time. Keep thinking of ways to create more value and your efforts will provide you more with time.

As I understand it, when we talk about yields we're not just talking about the interest rate offered on the original bond/bill, but the total value of the asset at maturity.

Beyond the initial sale of any bill (one year or less, no semi-annual interest coupon, interest just paid at maturity) and bonds (coupons paid out throughout the bonds life) there is also the secondary market of bonds that have already been purchased being resold for different prices than they were issued out based on their relative value to other investment assets. The reason short term treasuries keep going up is because people are getting the fuck out everything else. The secondary 20 year bond market was also shitting the bed until recently because nobody wants to own previously-issued 20-years when the interest rates on the coupons were so low, but now that every other fucking thing is negative, at least some kind of treasury is better than nothing.

Shorter term bills are the best to buy right now if you want treasuries, as you don't want to have a twenty year and then get VOLCKERED two weeks later because now your 5 percent interest bond is worth shit compared to a freshly printed 16 percent bond. Hope that's mostly correct.

>>49606024
What's the difference between FED and the central bank, non-native english and not american

>>49606024
I get it, 1 year yield went up because market is pricing in the fact that the fed is serious now and shit is about to happen

It jumped 25% and the market went down 3-5% depending on the index
Now what? I just don't understand why you've got your underwear in a twine over this
Of course the bond yields will go up. It is the natural outcome. What did you expect would happen intraday.

>>49606092
>What's the difference between FED and the central bank, non-native english and not american
it's the same difference bettween a McDonalds and a restaurant, a McDonalds is a restaurant, but not all restaurants are McDonalds, the FED is the central bank of the United States of America.

>>49606174
Ah okay, i understood it properly then. Thanks <3

>>49605077
Good effort anon we appreciate

Surely we will return to QE? Only thing is when..

>>49606269
Of course we will and it will most likely be when the fed's started to feel like they've lost control of the recession. Late 2023/early 2024ish is what the options market is predicting

>>49606157
Corporations are going to start to liquify assets. Expect market drops as more money enters the bond market

>>49606051
Short term treasuries aren’t going up though, the INTEREST rate is going up, that means everyone is selling them and their value is going down.

>>49605077
Those numbers are also pretty sexual.

>>49604559
>If the FED puts pedal to the metal wednesday then the dollar milkshake will be tested , unironically, in 2 weeks.
The Fed's milkshake brings all the goys to the yard.

>>49606504
https://www.bankrate.com/rates/interest-rates/treasury/

It looks like the 90-day has been going up and is above par value now.

>>49606438
We expected this last year. It is literally the outcome of rate hikes. Why do you think the fed is doing it? They want to produce a well-needed recession, to create a "correction" and simultaneously combat inflation

So far, we've seen this whole crash from the fed just TALKING about raising rates. We haven't seen the real ramifications of it yet so there is a lot of downside still, but also doesn't have to be. Reality doesn't always correlate with theory, so we'll see. But what's happening is not unexpected and it is literally the whole reason for why it's being done actually

>>49605685
>The US cannot default on its debt anymore.
I don't understand this logic. Eventually there has to be a breaking point where the USD gets dumped as the world reserve currency, and life becomes intolerable for the masses. Money printer go brrrr is what precipitated this mess, how exactly is further diluting purchasing power of the dollar going to fix it.

>>49605885
How much do you make a year?

>>49605373
maximum employment is correlated to the stock market
where do you think those wages come from

>>49604559
for all the retards that dont know why bond yields have mattered so much this year;
US treasuries are the absolute bottom base of all the interest rate stack with prime rates, mortgage rates, etc. and almost every valuation model used in the investment world has the US treasury rate as an important input.
basically when rates are ripping higher all asset valuation models are saying "this asset is now worth much less"

>>49605077
Checked. Based post

>>49607873
>basically when rates are ripping higher all asset valuation models are saying "this asset is now worth much less"
I’ve read that this is only theoretically true but is often not the case, especially with RE.

>>49606024
>>49605815
>>49605685
>>49605194
>>49605077
>>49604608
Incredibly based. The debt market is gonna implode. I'm actually kinda scared and impressed by how many of niggercattle normies have no idea what is goin on. Most earn the same amount of money they did before covid, but have taken out enormous amounts of debt because it is cheap right now. Where I live I have never seen this much of expensive cars then in the last 2 years. People are really living the dream...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nBEgJZdd2BQ

You are all retarded
Those bonds can die I don't care because this will mean bitcon will raise.

>>49606024
>>49605815
>>49605685
>>49605194
>>49605077
>>49604608
>>49607965
Forgot to add, what do you own? I have silver and LINK. Not much else to be honest. Well not much that is left anyway...

>>49607936
Of course it's not true, but you know plenty of faggots want to build computer models to please their boss and make $300k a year, so you can bet many billions of dollars are managed using these models.

>>49605194
WHAT CAN I DO TO PROTECT MYSELF AGAINST THST SCENARIO IF IM FROM EU/US AND STILL HAVE Q JOB?
ALL CASH?

70s-80s inflation was the Fed shifting the world from gold to USD. this time it's USD to a USDC/CBDC equivalent. it is no different. a new asset class to be loaned and securitized. satoshi did the global financial system a favor.

>>49604559
I presume that the whole world will get fucked either way if US were to go belly up, right? Just like it did in 2008?
Man it sucks, I live in Poland and everything is getting more expensive each month. I'm out of uni since Feb this year so almost no job experience, not to mention zero savings. The only upside is that I have zero debt and I'm in my early 20s. Worst case scenario I wageslave till things are better, right?
Or do you have some other advice for me?

>>49607965
Isn’t having lots of cheap debt right now basically the best possible position to be in though? The Fed realistically isn’t going to be capable of raising rates enough to tame 10% inflation. Real estate might stagnate but cars are still facing massive production shortages so I don’t see those loans being underwater any time soon either.

>>49605685
>Look up Ray Dalio
unironically opinion discarded, that guy is a fucking retard because he genuinely thinks Ukraine is going to win the conflict.
And makes assumptions based on that.
Just think about it, he claims he's a macroinvestor who understands politics and geopolitics and he can't get past the fucking wall of western propaganda.

keep in minds all your really need as a human is food, water, and shelter. the rest doesnt matter and you cant take it with you when you are dead

>>49608463
He’s also really delusional about China and bought the top of its demographic bubble without stopping to think that its only future is an aging and stagnant population.

>>49608576
I’d add a Bible and a wife to that.

>>49608416
well most of the retards here (90%) have variable debt. Or if you remember from the big short it was called subprime adjustable. So the european bank just raised rates aswell, euribor is positive for the first time after a long time. Which means everyone with variable debt is gonna get fucked. If they actually raise rates enough to solve inflation, that would mean that they would have to raise them to 15% ish or even more!. So everyone will go bankrupt... They are gonna lose everything at that point. The SP500 would be probably like at 100. No one would be touching that shit.

>>49608622
>Bible

Good goy.

>>49608729
Jesus hated the Jews, they are everything he was against. Idk why modern Christians are so fucked. Theyd be right there with the Pharisees crucifying jesus for being anti-semitic and not supporting Israel

>>49605077
>>49605685

Let me get this straight, MOST PEOPLE ITT did not know or understand this? This terrifies me deeply. It is as basic as it gets. If most Biz posters lack this knowledge, I dont even dare to imagine how the general population will fare. The crash has barely even started. I am unaffected by the rate-hikes due to my portfolio being able to handle a 8% rate hike, but the masses will get slaughtered. May god have mercy on their soul. FUCK.

So what is the best play?

>>49608623
After they fix inflation everyone without a job can just kill themselves. Then the housing problem is fixed too.

>>49608927
How much do you think the SPX will crash?

>>49607965
>The debt market is gonna implode.
I find it hard to believe Powell is going to stay the course. I say he swerves first.

>>49608623
interest doesn't need to match inflation YoY to combat it you utter gayboy

>>49609070
100% this. His only recourse is literally try to scare/bluff the froth out of the market.

>>49609142
yeah but after printing a few trillions in a short period of time, a few % will not stop inflation. And as we can see, currently we are below 1% of interest rates, and the thought of raising rates for 0.75bp or 1.00bp is making markets shit the bed, yields are rising and its basically an armagedon starting.

>>49608623

Raising the rates to 15% isnt necessary and will never happen. They will do it in increments of 0.25% to see what effect it will have on inflation. The goal isnt to get inflation down to 0%, it is to control it on a downwards spiral. At most we will go up to 4% (and even that is unlikely imo). Still, 3-4% rates will wreck a lot of people who are already struggling with the increased cost of living. In most western countries however, the bank calculates your ability to handle a rate increase of 3-5% when they grant you the loan. For most, the luxuries they are used to, will be just that, luxuries. it will be a good time to invest in green energy. Sustainability and reuse of goods will be get its rejuvenation. In this time-period we will be sending the boomers off the demographic map of relevance and they will go down as a terrible generation of greed. I think the future is very bright, unless we continue in their path of sin and retardation. However I am a optimist and this time will be different :)

>>49604559
looks like i *am* going to five guys while i can still afford it.

t. not a /biz/zer just a touring rubbernecker

>>49609350
>it will be a good time to invest in green energy
ahhahaha

>>49604608
>>49604559
If you're going to be buying Government Bonds, you should hold until maturity. That, and hold paper cash.

Make sure you own your bonds (they are issued directly to you). Do not buy rehypothecated bills, notes and bonds (off-the-run). Buy the bonds from treasurydirect.gov directly, and do not sell them. Hold until maturity.

>>49609186
Yeah, I hope so aswell. I think the "soft landing" they are talking about will actually be letting inflation run wild, people will cry for a bit that their wages are not high enough to catch up with raising prices. But the wages will raise aswell. I mean, crashing the markets will cause havoc like we have not seen before.

>>49609350
If rates go to 3-5% the "calculations" of the bank you surviving a rate hike will be helpless since most of the people will have new jobs which will be sucking dick for a living.

>>49609045

No one knows. If anyone tells you they know, they know even less than you and are delusional. I'd buy bluechip necessary stocks that pay dividends. Oil and gas-companies unironically do really well in downturns. Id also buy telecom since people will continue to pay for their internet and phone subscriptions. It isnt a luxury anymore but a human need. I'd also buy into ramen noodle companies and the likes (they did really well in the 2008 crash).

All other "assets" are held in custody. You do not own these assets, you are simply being "lent" these assets.

To properly own a US treasury, you need to lend cash directly to the US government. Do not buy bonds that are issued by banks, they can be rehypothecated (really, just counterfeit)

>>49608623
We will never see rates that high in our lifetimes because it is impossible for the government to service the national debt. Rates will stay low and crushing inflation will be used to service the debt. It's a backdoor way of paying off the deficit by destroying people's savings and pensions. Inflation is a bitch when you don't have saving rates to match. Acquire hard assets that retain their value like real estate (that you live in).

>>49609397

Yes. In the coming 5 years it will be very good. Currently it is retardation.

>>49609498
Yes, and it has been "impossible" for other governments. When the impossible becomes possible, governments become insolvent and you have a civil war between government bodies that are no longer getting paid and are well armed.

>>49609450
Yup. Inflation will outpace wages and that’s just the way things are going to be for a while. Since no political parties want to reduce spending and increase taxes, we’ve reached the point where we’ll just have to inflate away some of our debt problems like we did after WWII.

>>49609450

Idk what shithouse country you live in, but in western Europe this is standard. I guess in burgerland it is different. But burgerland is 3rd world so it does not apply.

>>49609498
Probably not, but they need to raise rates higher then back in 08' if they want to curb inflation. so 3-5% just wont cut it.

Third world monkey here. Should I move all my savings into US dollars? Government here is balls deep in USD debt.

>>49609604

You have no idea what you are talking about. 3-4% will be plenty.

>>49609629

What country?

>>49605194
>the US and Europe unironically have a good chance of being alright,

no we dont because we dont produce enough and we no longer have enough resources

>>49609603
In my country the banks said that for every tenth person that enters the bank and asks for a loan, they will let them borrow more on their cuck wage as is allowed for other 9. (Some part of the wage has to be left for you to spend, you cant take 100% of your wage for a loan).
>>49609641
Well, markets crashing will have a deflationary effect, so everyone will be poor, pensions gone, house market will crash as never before since it has never been balloned as much either, but on the other hand since they printed FUCKING TRILLIONS of dollars, and since TRILLIONS are sitting in other countries, the inflation will still be present. Oh and lots of jobs will be gone. The economy will come to an halt.

>>49609070
He has to. Or he fucks the treasury.

>>49609629
The government will just steal it when they need it.

Dollars are safe'ish, but it needs to be somewhere your government can't find/reach it.

>>49609483
Is there an ETF for this class?

>>49609754

It will depend on the country. Where do you live?

>>49609839
The FED and niggercattle (Without realizing it) are between a rock and a hard place
>>49609863
Slovenia haha.

>>49607085
There is no alternative. Look up the trifecta of properties of which central banks can control up to 2, and understand that USD (and Euro but LMFAO) is the only global option, that and it is grandfathered in in all the dollar denominated debt already out there. Think about what defaulting actually means, and realize you just need to outprint + tax the interest rate and nothing more. Tax is nothing more than paying interest so it doesn't get paid in inflation, nothing more. Smoke and mirrors.

>>49607995
Little bit of SPY in case, bunch of MCD, but mostly USD atm, some euro (yuropoor needs to be able to pay), good amount of physical gold in coins and some silver (though I think it's a meme at best), then a bunch of longer dated options mostly on the SPY, september and december ranging 350, 300, 250. Still bagholding what was 30% of the 20% of my portolio that is risk in 600 SPY calls for sep 30, never selling.

>>49608042
Read the above. Hold mostly cash, pay down only debts whose rates can be adjusted higher, hedge some with physical low premium gold (coins no smaller fraction than 1/4 oz), average into some stable companies like MCD if you want, just wait for the bear to end. If this is 08 tier it means we're in the next cycle, which will be commodities. You might want to put some into gold/commodity companies at some point, see the relevant general. Crypto is a scam, if you insist on getting it see if BTC 200 week support holds, otherwise try 16k or 6.1k as minor entry. not financial blah blah blah.

>>49608390
I'm doing a master in phil atm, wagied some doing TA previously, have made enough with trading since the corona crash made me my capital to subside. Yes wage slave to independence, if you have a knack for investing then learn what you need to succeed in this crisis and be ready to invest what you've earned once the new cycle starts.

>>49608463
he's a retard on current geopolitics and China, agreed, I refer to him because his basics of econ is good for the people here who haven't heard the word "credit" before, and because as someone who has studied history and is a macro investor, his perspective and models on nation's economic potential is very spot on. His conclusions about China are ass because he is blind to some factors, I'm not an acolyte. Hohols won't win, but the 50/50 chance at "winning" Russia seems to have (fog of war makes this hard to estimate) will be pyric at best unless Biden-style stays for years.

>>49608927
ikr, now you see why /biz/ loves crypto so much. Because during this bullrun you could get by without knowing fucking anything. I'm just hoping to spark some learning here.

>>49609445
Correct, and I'd do this if I wasn't holding all my dollars for a play at the switching of cycles, I think I can get more yield in commodities when the time comes. Rates would have to get real high for me to start buying bonds.

>>49609701
That's why I say chance, this completely depends on the geopolitic shit, but I think we're cucked enough to deal with some tough years without sperging. The rest of the world (sans USA) will have it worse, their flight to our market will create enough activity together with the internal eurozone circlejerk to keep the lights on unless the eastern war turns much hotter and China gets real about its support. It won't because it will have its own issues and interests.

>>49609673
Costa Rica, the local currency is already very weak against the dollar but I don't know what to expect in a recession.

>>49609839
>He has to. Or he fucks the treasury.
In theory they could increase interest rates for the normal economy by raising interest on excess reserves and repo interest, but still just park all government bonds on their own balance sheet at fixed interest rates. Keep interest low for government, but high for the private economy.

Highly unorthodox, but worth it just for monetarist tears.

What do I do to protect myself? Cash?

If I buy treasury bonds right now, it looks like they keep dropping with interest rate hike. Is the interest hike even enough to overcome the loss in the bond when you turn around in sell it? It doesn't seem like it, for example "TLH
ISHARES 10 TO 20 YEAR TREASURY BOND ETF" dropped 2.65% today and it only pays out 3.03% a year. I'm feeling real dumb right now please ELI5 if anyone understands. I have a decent chunk of cash but also lots of equities eating shit right now. thanks.

>>49609913

Then you know a lot more about your local conditions than I do, by far. I only know Scandinavia inside and out and average understanding (by my standards) of Eastern-Europe. Eastern Europe is struggling already, it is gonna get ugly. Will probably be rolling blackouts on the energy-grid this winter. Germany is cucked and have been importing a lot of energy from Scandinavia this winter and the spring months. In Norway we are low on water from our dams, so supplying Europe with our excess is looking unlikely. Only realistic thing I can see to solve the issue is that Europe gives up eastern Ukraine to appease Putin and get the gas back on track. If not.. Can only pray for rain.

>>49609971

Get dollars. Your local currency will only continue to lose its value.

>>49610047
>What do I do to protect myself? Cash?
Yes, to reinvest in shit that actually yields real returns when shit starts to settle. If that is companies, sectors, or bonds with real yields you will have to figure out at that time. It does not hurt to hold some gold, its on discount atm pic related. Turbo autist quants have seen the same last I spoke with some.

>I have a decent chunk of cash but also lots of equities eating shit right now. thanks.
You can always use options what they were meant for, to hedge your current holdings to be delta neutral. That is, to offset the loss of value of your equities with cash from option returns that depend on market going down, such as put based strategies.

Don't bother with these bond ETFs you don't get, if you want to get into bonds get them directly from the treasury, but I'm waiting a while. Good luck.

>>49610047
I don’t want to get into it all right now but don’t buy bonds if you expect rates to go up. The price of the bond you own has to go down at that point bcuz the coupon payment on it is lower than the current market rate,

Also since this needed to be explained to you I recommend never buying bonds ever and just DCAing into the S&P

>>49610121
>Only realistic thing I can see to solve the issue is that Europe gives up eastern Ukraine to appease Putin and get the gas back on track. If not.. Can only pray for rain.

Or you know, say fuck off to globohomo from america, and start paying russia in rubles for gas? We have had titles here as if the russia is blackmailing us for not wanting euros as payment. Worthless shit they print at the ECB just as dollars. Pootin is a G for saying fuck off to eu. And all of our retarded and corrupt european politicians are doing is sucking bidens dick. This was an eye opener for how stupid the niggercattle really is... They just wanna get spanked really hard. And they seem to like it aswell. Because the media told them its the morally right thing to do. I am beyond bamboozled.

>>49610121
Putin will not settle for a sovereign Ukraine which can arm up. EU isn't going to give him a puppet state.

Even if Zelensky gives Ukraine away as a puppet, EU is just going cold war till regime change in Russia. EU is utterly fucked for a couple years.

>>49604559
>you will see margin calls we haven't seen in 15 years.
Oh yes, fuck. I'm waiting for the margin calls since last year.

>>49610261
DCA into the growth cycle turns out to be better than into the bear, once we hit a range I am ok to get back into I'll go at 1/3 of the amounts I would otherwise if we're still drilling. Going to be all about selecting good P/E, divvies, fundamental shit. Boomer Buffet going to be right again.

>>49610284

Yup. The war didnt turn out as he liked at first, but he is playing it very well now. Took out most of his dissident oligarchs, hardlining the EU, who are cucked beyond belief. EU are desperate to establish new pipelines from North Africa (all the way from Nigeria (called Nigal, kek).But it is a long way away still.

>>49610355

With his current momentum I doubt he will settle for only the east. However I think he should, since the rest of Ukraine of worthless to him and will require a lot more blood. However it will be a new Afghanistan for decades to come no matter if he settles for the east or takes the entire country. Either way, EU is fucked, Ukraine is fucked and Russia is ok.

There is a chinese proverb, that says "I hope you get to live in interesting times". Well, these times sure as fuck are.

>>49609960
I see Commodities contracts as having counterparty risk in rising rates markets, since if we ever have issues with collateral, the contracts themselves can lose value. You can even see FtDs if rates continue to increase.

As for geopolitics, Russia's motivation is not to "win", but to drag everyone to hell with it. Russia does not have much to lose at this point, from this perspective, we're all in danger.

>>49610047
Cash in a bank might not be safe in a rising rate market. The lowest risk move right now is buy Treasury bills directly from the Government.

You are not investing in treasuries for capital appreciation at this point. You invest in treasuries to maintain your principal balance.

Banks may or may not preserve principal balance given the nature of bail-in laws and how currencies can turn into bank stock overnight when a bank goes insolvent.

>>49610715
Biden wants us to pay top dollar price for their gas. And people don't see this as corruption. kek. He and his crackhead son can both smoke an exhaust pipe.

>>49610743
Yeah not having mcdonalds is real hell... Or other globohomo products that are gay as hell to anyone with half a brain. I'm sure russia will be far better off after shit hits the fan then yurope or 'merica.

>>49610616
So you reckon buying dumb boomer shit with <5 P/E when shit hits the fan

>>49608927
I literally just started learning about all these Jewish money tricks a few months ago. My hatred for the jews has grown tenfold since then.

Is it uterly retarded to buy the dip on s&p (a really big one) if we have a debt or monetary crisis ?

>>49610888
Russia is in demographic decline that is worse than that of Europe, without the economy of Europe. It is nothing more than a nation with a lot of natural resources and nothing else really. Russian industry has been bankrupt since the Soviet era, and the younger generations are very lazy and jaded.

There is nothing Putin can really do, other than commit nuclear murder suicide to get back at NATO. Neither Russia (or its adversaries) will exist past that point, and the rest of the world will move on with their lives without the cancerous West (Russia included).

Game theory says I'm right about this, since the NATO-Russia conflict is very asymmetrical, while both are nuclear armed. This would NOT have happened if the USSR were still around, as they would have had something to lose then. So in other words, having the USSR around was stabilizing to a degree.

Anons do you mind sharing any more info or books from where i can learn this stuff?

So YCC is an inevitability at this point to avoid an outright collapse, or am I misunderstanding this?

>>49611141
They will just sell to other countries? Besides russia was a worse situation after the fall of the USSR. I really find it hard to believe they are such a shithole. Sounds like yourope and US propaganda desu. Are people starving? - NO, Are they annoying in video games - YES.

>>49610743
>>49611141
I mostly mean equity in companies that benefit from a commodity-frontrunner cycle, I agree on counterparty risk, pic related likely to be my last CFD play for a long while, turns out macro+TA prints more often than it loses. Physical gold and sacks of rice fall under commodities too though ))

As for HoholvsVatnik, I called the invasion few weeks before it happened, many people thought a land war in europe won't happen, but I know some balkanoids and have read the Eurasia heartland theories Russian geopolitics derives from. I've said also that it'll be a bog, a grind that results in Ukraine in the gutter with its eastern land not west of the Dniper divided into autonomous republics, or at best autonomous zones if Russia sees serious internal disruption. Did not expect the west to act in union as it has.

Agreed on points in your second post, demographics will rape Russia and China both next decade, Europe will have sand nogs to worry about but will be OK, USA will be in even better shape. Worried about a famine this fall in Africa and the refugee crisis it will create though.

>>49610926
Proud owner of MacyD so that I never have to wagecuck there. I reckon buying what will look like low P/E boomer shit that will reach a serious fraction of the P/E ratios we saw for tech this cycle. I have a background in technology, I'll be keeping an eye out on those commodity sector companies that have a serious edge, and those that will promise air based on nothing like all the EV scams, which I'll hope to short into oblivion.

>>49611252
Easing is required yes, which is why market has begun to price in and will price in further a return to QE the tighter the FED goes, the faster it goes.

I'm not sure I understand the doomer narrative, someone correct or confirm?

>inflation is out of control
>fed is basically doing nothing effective to control it
>gets reflected in bond yields
>makes govt debt more expensive
which leads into debt crisis
but this assumes that inflation keeps roaring, right?
if powell goes full volker, and we get a recession/depression, how does that lead into collapse?

and how do you respond/position yourself to survive such an event? run to china? it doesn't seem like anywhere is safe in the west.

>>49605373
Cmon the Fed knows they can’t control inflation. They can only control speculative trading.

>>49609450
>If rates go to 3-5% the "calculations" of the bank you surviving a rate hike will be helpless since most of the people will have new jobs which will be sucking dick for a living.
I'm a retard...but how do rising interest rates affect plebs like me? I also work an essential job that will always be needed if this makes a difference.

>>49611141

Interesting perspective.

>>49604559
>how long can this continue before we crash harder than '20?
A few centuries at least
Modern economy is much more developed than in 29

>>49611344
What job is that? It will affect literally everyone. Its a financial crisis. You will probably be really careful where you spend your money.

>>49611421
So for a pleb like me that has a recession proof career whom also happens to be extremely boring and frugal should be okay right?

>>49609629
Same situation as you anon. I'm also from a 3rd world shithole with 180% debt to GDP ratio with 90% of that dollar debt.

I'm holding all my assets in Gold + XMR currently. I want to hold USD but it's too risky as govt. will likely seize it when the shit hits the fan for real. Want to hold some USDT or USDC as well but I can't find a good way to purchase without leaving a trail

>>49611509
Everyone will be affected.

>>49605077
>>49604559
A literal nothing burger. Just short term reactionary nonsense that goes back down when the "current thing" becomes rear viewed.

>>49611299
Nah the issue isn't that FED is not tackling inflation well enough, the issue is that entire developing world and most companies holding up the market are reliant on these low rates in US denominated debt, they did not count on rates returning to high values this fast when they did what they did during covid. Sri Lanka is one of the first dominos in a web that spans the globe, they buy their rice from India with dollars anon, many such cases, many such cases.

>if powell goes full volker, and we get a recession/depression, how does that lead into collapse?

He won't, I fully expect the FED to turn in the short-mid term, "collapse" in the west probably will just refer to our markets and existing longs becoming trash for a while, with some serious risk of mismanagement leading to stagflation for some years. The main issue is that most of the rest of the world that uses dollars will be fucked into poverty and famine, and that this collapse in many links of the global supply chain will reverb back here, it is in this and the geopolitical situation with Russia/China that most of the risk resides in for USA/EU. Eurozone may also get fucked by a sov debt crisis due to the med countries yes, for the US this will not be a problem per say.

>>49611385
Meant the 'rona crash, 1929 was a much slower affair, and much deeper than this will be, as it was driven by FED policy determined to drive into a depression, they will never do this again, especially with how red hot the country is already politically, the conditions aren't there.

>>49611519
>>49611633
This is the difference between a first world rat that cannot look further than first order effects on his own nation and someone who has experienced the rest of the world and how much of its systems rely on dollar debt fuckery. I know what I know besides study of history and countries from mates in such hellholes as Lebanon, the rate of change again is what matters here.

>>49611287
>Proud owner of MacyD so that I never have to wagecuck there.
kek, I have been mostly in cash these last few months, too much of a pussy to aggressively short.
Guess Ill stay as is for the next few months, might be extra amoral and invest in tobacco

>>49611633
This. Op is a dumb boomer brainlet. If he would made 7 figs in crypto like the rest of us he wouldnt worry about muh hikes muh bonds

/biz/ is too low iq to understand any of this. ok bizlets the only thing u need to know is that the FED will raise intrest rates so there is less cheap degen money going around. no more paamping of useless garbage like crypto and shitty memestonks. mmmmkay. shit is gonna be bad. imagine the worst cryptorugpulls but in a worldwide stockmarket mmkay. people will go fucking mental and u'll see hedgefund niggers and GME stonkfags jumping out of skyscrapers and splatter on the floor. it will be glorious

>>49611541
2008 didn't affect everyone, will it be worse than 08?

>>49611837
They'll start QE again the moment inflation makes its way back down. It very likely peaked in may and the next report will confirm a lower trend. Then we will be non stop rally mode and you fags will be wrong, yet again. You pull out this same shit for every dip.

>>49611868
think more like 1929 but 2x worse. imagine soldiers guarding soupkitchen lines and beating people that try to get in front of the line

>>49604653
breh

we need to wipe these people out so bad, tank this shit into the ground and liquidate every GME newfaggot on earth

>>49611901
not this time. democrats will lose in November and they know that , it's all theatre now. Might as well use the crisis to financially ruin the rebellious population and make them beg for more gubermint. people like you

>>49611793
you are poor, and your longs will be liquidated

>>49611793
6 figs in stocks and options, 5 figs in crypto but all sold out, background in comp sci means I see too much of the monkey behind the curtain, I don't like investing in ponzi schemes. You had one golden ticket, I'm learning real estate and tax fuckery for after this crash so I'll be set when you've burned it all.

Both of you missed the point, you can only think in terms of first order effects, you should get to know some third worlders, all of them will tell you about the sheer degree of dependence on USD their societies rely on, and the insane shit their governments have gotten into during this low cost and covid era. Sri Lanka is your hint, do some research.

>>49611837
For the record, saw GME at 8, then 20, got in at 40, out at 180 while it was on its last crash back into the 40's. Told a mate of mine that was really into the thing that was the price to get back in at, worked out well for him, but I no longer touch meme stock shit for all these reasons.

great reading here thanks

>>49611868
>>49611952
They wont beat them. They'll shoot them because there wont be enough for everyone.

>>49604559
33% in 15 days? So the US is collapsing the world to save itself? Kinda based. What's the wider implications though? I would guess that this is akin to the US pulling rank with rest of the world.

>>49612065
aah u played it well good Sir. nothing wrong if you bought some GME if it was A) for the lulz B) to profit of cringy normie ' activists' or both

>>49604677
stock market is going to drop another 50% at least. now consider that crypto always follows stocks. also consider that if stocks drop 50%, crypto will drop more. btc is currently about 22k and the stock market has barely even started going down.

>>49610252
>but I'm waiting a while

You wont be in when the squeeze happens

T. 4Q08

>>49612225
crypto will dump 95% from here. I'd be shocked if it was only 80% from here. stocks will atleast dump 60% from ATH , likely more. trying not to be too much of a fatalist

>>49611141
you need to start from the scratch If you want to understand actually pull your head out of your own ass and actually this whole conflict from the political and geopolitical point of view.
Start with reading about euromaidan
https://files.catbox.moe/navibv.webm

>>49605077
>reading about economics will make you rich
kys

Nice thread, gl anons

watching this for the lulz and the entertaining voice over. very plebbish , perfect for biznigs. very doomer boomer.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=owt-vc9ZvaI

>>49612280
We’ll at least we have another buying opportunity. I’ll get so much Chainlink and ICP if markets crash that much more

>>49611141
bitch please every shitnigger country will be nuked first. when nukes start flying they will likely go for proxies first , which means : niggers dying. u absolute retard lmfao

>>49604559
>then the dollar milkshake will be tested
Where you buyin a milkshake for a dollar, breh? What is that, like two sips?

>>49611764
>sri lanka
damn you wrote so much in this thread and yet you have so little knowledge about anything you talk.
I suggest anyone in this thread do not listen to this guy, his advices are just complete trash.
And if you want to know what actually happened in Sri Lanka read this
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/03/05/sri-lanka-organic-farming-crisis/

>>49611868

If you're USA/Europe, you'll be fine the way you live, no problem. My OP is doomer sounding but for us the issue will be in the markets and lower standard of living cause shit expensive, for rest of the world its collapsing economies and famines, and that'll bite us for years too.

>>49612090
I just want the people who unironically asked "what is a yield" to start reading, education is key.

>>49612188
Yea I rode the wave because I could see the rate it was going mainstream at, the "dumb money" was too obviously on its way in, and so there would be whales to pump also. I overstayed my welcome and could have made much more, but profit is profit.

>>49612232
reddit

spacing squoze

I timed the march bottom to 4 minutes with SPY puts, I won't time something like that again but you don't need to, just being around at the time means you can multiply your time in the market manyfold.

>>49612361
Learn to read, nigga. If I make one poorfag here half as poor that was a good way to spend the evening in my book. It won't make you rich, it is the basic fucking foundations with which you can even begin to learn about anything else of value. When you have capital, it is a way to multiply your efforts and not get trapped with the dumb money. Not telling people to study how Bolt runs and they'll win olympic gold, telling them to try standing up so they can walk instead of crawling everywhere, some will go on to run themselves.

>>49612392
Couldn't fucking stand that guys voice, didn't watch

>>49612437
chainlink was like 2 bucks in March 2020. i'll buy some if it drops below that price so i can finally be a retarded link Marines. I don't even like or believe in crypto but owning some Link would have memetic entertainment value

>>49612588
no surprise there. boomervoices triggers the weak pink haired zoomers

>>49604633
wealthy foreigners buy USTs in droves. their countries are so much more fucked up that they'll hurt less by suffering some losses to US inflation than if they stay in their own currencies. some US banks also buy USTs, but not so much lately heh.

>>49604559
I shilled Brent johnson and the dolla milkshake hardcore over a year ago. big threads shitloads of replies. I was laughed at. the dollar ont he dxy would crash etc etc etc.. biz is truly and profoundly retarded and like usual i was right. Punishing times are upon us and none of these easy gains will be available for biz. even during insane bullruns biz struggles , imagine biz performance during an economic depression LMFAO NGMI

>>49612646
>>49612588
>boomervoices
It's a Chinese guy trying to hide his accent. Reminds me of this.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sbPWitSTe2k

>>49610833
would having an allocated gold storage account be a way out of the banking system?

>>49605077
What are some books you'd recommend on how the market works and investment strategies?

>>49604677
when you can get a guaranteed 2.5% return in one year, you do not risk any money for any smaller return. this is yield, not coupon rate, which means the bonds themselves are falling in price. if you buy a single $1000-face-value bond with a 0% coupon, the only way you can get a 2.5% return (or yield) from it, is by buying it at that much of a discount.
>the math for a 2.5% coupon: $1000 * 1.025 = $1025
>so, solve: x * 1.025 = $1000
you paid $975.60 to buy this promise (100% risk free guarantee in this case because we're talking about a government bond) to be given $1000 when the bond matures, with no coupon payments made between now and then to tide you over.

>>49612828
lmao im semi boomer i find his voice very relaxing and slightly amusing because of the chinknigger accent.

>>49611141
almost all developed countries are in demographic decline, and importing MENA people doesn't count as a way of offsetting it. even countries like germany are going to struggle. gas/petroruble with no inflation crisis has put russia on better footing. they also have an alliance with china and europe has cucked itself out of its energy supply meaning its people and industries will suffer even if the russians do too.

>>49607376
around tree fiddy

>>49612894
u don't need ' strategies' or ' books' . you need to start doing some motherfucking research. u start with the basics on some cringe platform like investopedia. then u start watching videos on jewtube. for example on jewtube u have the typical contrarians like Peter Schiff , but more intresting is to find someone within this contrarian community that disagrees with the majority of the contrarians while at the same time still being a contrarian vs the majority of the market. for example Peter Schiff has been screaming about inflation for over a decade. Not intresting though you should watch him since u are a disgusting retarded newfag and u don't know shit. More intresting is deflationary views which u don't hear anything about in the mainstream and even within contrarians is rare too find. compare both views. also understand that both schools of thought can be right but the timing might play our differently. both can exisT. my scenario for now : high inflation will lead to higher prices which whill fuck over companies margins which will fuck over consumer and profits for companies which will lead to stockmarket crash which will lead to deflationary spiral which will lead to soupkicthens. solong niggers im gonna do some lines of coke and finger my anus while jerking off. no it's not gay if u do it to yourself

>>49604653
>>49604677
business and finance forum. retards don't even understand how bonds work.

fuck 4chan

>>49612818
but he isn't right. inflation is still killing the dollar. his theory is not "there will be relative strength of the dollar when people get scared," nor is that even a theory -- it's simply a true observation and not uniquely anyone's. that happens every time, but it's also irrelevant and that's why he too is now irrelevant.
the market is leading the real economy, like it always does. first it goes down. next the fed bails it out, or tries to -- but real returns will be garbage unless they beat inflation. one of these times, very probably this time, they won't. without a specific asset bubble like we had in housing which creates a comparative advantage by actually having the supply to "run hot" while credit is cheap, it's just an everything bubble, which cannot be beaten in a casino stock market.
the real question here would first be: what is the technology or asset that's next? will it be EVs? will it be human bioengineering? will it be an unimaginably large buildup of UAV war materiel? if there's no answer, then there's no milkshake. plus, that answer has to happen in the united states, because he specifically said the US dollar. i drink your milkshake.

>>49604559
>crash harder than '20
2020 wasn't a crash rofl you have no idea how bad things are going to get for the next 15-20 years.

If any of you have a smart wiseass father ask him how shitty the 70s were. This is your future.

>>49613277
idgaf . he was right. obviously everything is relative. fact is that practically all trade is in dollars and so are most of the debt payments , especially for poorfag countries. He never claimed his theory was deeply complex , it really isn't. He does understand that the moneyprinting meme isn't real. Atleast not like retards like Schiff perceive it to be. I guess that's the only adgy take in his whole theory. But i get your point , in the end it's a pretty simple take. shit crashes people want dollars. like usual.. He also never claimed simply owning dollars is a good idea and obviously he understand we have negative real rates. that's not his point. I think his main and only real point is that everyone will flee to the dollar and the dollar will be the last fiat standing in a house of shitbaggery. A more intresting point in his theorie is that US stocks could potentially go to the fucking moon after the crash because everyone will look at the USA for a trustworthy recovery

>>49613419
The 70's are why I ride a bike. I don't mean to say the corona crash meant anything, I'm talking speed of equity prices falling, which implies certain strategies.

>>49605077
>. If the bonds go up, so does the FED rate, so does the price of all debt
>150% debt to gdp ratio
You were pretty decent except for these two parts. Debt service isnt 150% of GDP, GDP is a yearly calculated number, the total debt is over its entire lifetime. Rather you should look at GDP (yearly) with yearly debt payments. Its about $500 billion or so when I last checked. Much more manageable than the 150% meme. Also, rising rates and yields doesnt affect already issued debt, it only affects further debt issuance. So congress can actually start paying it off at 500 billion per year and its fine.

>>49613419
>rofl you have no idea how bad things are going to get for the next 15-20 years.

>>49607085
>. Eventually there has to be a breaking point where the USD gets dumped as the world reserve currency

And switch to WHAT???!!!
No other economy in the world is as stable and with such a huge backing. The USA economy/society is rock solid and growing.
USA has BY far the worlds largest army so chances of ANY war on USA territory is near zero.
USA population is about the ONLY major industrialized nation that is still growing.
USA people are well educated and capitalistic.
Just about every major company in the world depends on trade with USA to survive.

Our government has large debts BUT if they just cut back the endless welfare spending a bit the government budget could stabilize and pay off the debt.

lol, lmao

>>49614019
>The USA economy/society is rock solid and growing.
lol
>USA people are well educated
lol

>>49613419
A decade of crab, but wages were still good so 70s were not bad at all compared to hell we live in nowadays, but look at that perfect head and shoulders before the crash

>>49609629
>>49609971
I would buy dollars and triple A grade U.S bonds. I-bonds or US treasury bills You may lose out to inflation(a little bit) but atleast you protect your principal which is the smartest play

>>49614172
>>49609629
Treasuries are going to be printing money soon as rates keep rising. Gonna look forward to picking up 10-30 year bonds paying 5-6%.

>>49614073
What is scarier then the 70s in my opinion is the 2000s tech bubble burst, took markets 15 years to recover, I have a feeling this is our future. So 2025 you can expect the bottom and start slurping if we get a repeat of this scenario. A 2000 tech bubble burst would bring Nasdaq down 70-80% from ATH so that would be 4500-3000 bottom in 2025.

>>49614224
Im not even planning on having a savings account just all treasury bills and ladder the purchases. if the t bills goes belly up i got a bottle of tequila, and my favorite boots cause shit would really be mad max at that point. the doomsday posters would be right for all the wrong reasons

>>49613958
Shhh trying to scare the "what is yield" crowd into reading, I used to hate this method but it works the same way as saying something wrong getting an answer to a question better than the question. 4% on Italy's bonds being crossed is the relevant part there, they got to 10-12% range in the 2011 crisis if memory serves me. Still I don't mean to post lies, the size of the total debt relative to cashflow matters when the price of new cashflows goes up. The issue is not that the coke the addicts have in hand becomes more expensive, but that their next fix that fuels the work they do to pay for the previous hit becomes too expensive. But this would bore the /biz/tard, of which I am one. I kneel to the Lamyposter, resident of /smg/, time to hit the sack.

>>49614409
lol k. night dude. We will all be talking about this stuff for rest of the year im sure.

>>49604559
Nothing ever happens.
Remember when Evergrande defaulted newfag?

>>49614249
Current market isn't nearly as overextended or overvalued like the tech bubble back then.

To picture the overvaluation, 2000s bubble is equivalent to Crypto hitting 20T rightnow if you adjust to money supply

>>49605077
anyone who types FED in all caps is a fucking retard, sry bro

Thank you for this thread, OP. Does this mean companies won't have money to push shit like picrel anymore?

>>49604559
>then the dollar milkshake will be tested
Dollar milkshake is a meme to justify the rampantly suicidal financial management of the USA for the short term success it offers.

Milkshake is horseshit. If this happens, burgerland becomes Weimar 2.0 on steroids and nigger riots.

>>49614609
Fuk can you imagine if the crypto bubble went that crazy before bursting. I blame the Bankman for prematurely popping the bubble

all in crypto for 5 years. already down 90% from my ath(7 months ago), dont care if i lose the rest of it, im never selling. if im too stupid to not sell the top, im damn sure not gonna double my mistake and sell after a 90% drop

at least i got to dream a little bit for once in my life. back to the gutter for me it is

>>49615206
You'll live. Get your ass back in there in a few years

>>49608586
>>49608463
Yeah frankly my mind is blown that he doesn't see that, it makes me really cynical about finance because it's the most obvious thing ever and yet he doesn't see it. China isn't even remotely a rising power, it's unironically peaked or is not far of for doing so, it has the worst demographic triangle in human history. Anyone who can't see that is a flaming fucking retard with no exceptions. I want to like him but there's no way I can respect that naivitie, and it sucks because I think his content is insightful.

>>49614019
KEK

>>49605077
checked

Great thread loves reading it. Any book recommendations for understanding economy better like some of you seem to?

>>49612539
yeah I'm getting midwit vibes from this guy

>>49611519
>XMR
sold all my xmr last fri for busd via swap site. my keys my "dollar". currently leaving that until the trend changes.

>>49606024
>that central banks will have no choice but to return to easing

No buddy, they will go for deflation now.

Otherwise hyperbidenflation will killmurder the REAL economy.

Stock market ritual sacrifice

Its cheap blood for keeping the rest of the countrys eco alive.

If youre in the market rn, youre getting taxed.

401k? Taxed. Roth(schild)? Taxed. Portfolio? Taxed

Pulling outta the market is the only stable solution.

Cash will be king, bc you cant afford debt anymore

>>49604559
Problem Reaction Solution. How else are they going to implement the Great Reset and activate CBDCs with for use designation like EBT Cards.

>>49604633
Old fashioned Staking.