/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>49595227
what happens?

OOooh what is it now again. Wasn't the CPI press release already

>>49596584
>what happens?
Negative interest rates, QE on corporate debt, markets to the moon.

>>49596738
yep. better get your positions secured in mining stocks today.

>>49595227
this faggot doesn't determine the markets. quit listening to crypto youtube retards. BTC is a global currency and is the real Jerome Powell. BTC falls, altcoins and the stock market falls and vice versa. 1,000 things can cause BTC to collapse or pump when so many countries worldwide are adopting it

Recession or hyperinflation?

>>49596812
>>49596825
>>49596738
>>49596688
>>49596584
>>49596898
0% of my PF is liquid
REEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

>>49595227
Prepare for a bloody anus, OP. He's gonna raise them rates extra double hard just for the sake of it. He's publicly stated that he is a big fan of Paul Volcker who is of course famous for fucking the economy extra hard in the ass to get rid of 70s inflation.

>>49596738
75 BPS guaranteed, 100 BPS isn't off the table.

>>49595227
Remember last month when the market was going down? Then this guy came out and said they were going ahead with a 50 basis point hike and everything went crazy before getting ass raped the following days? He’s talking about a 75 point hike this time lol

>>49597222
Checked for truth and correct prediction. They’ve been signaling .75 for sometime now.

The only thing that boggles me is the people saying the fed is going to reverse course, lower rates and pump QE. Where do people get this idea from?

>>49597349
Those are the same people telling you to buy now.

>>49597140
The economy had recovered by the time Volcker came around, Real GDP had been growing well for 4 years already. He just drove the world into the 1980s recession.
If Volcker had tried it in the mid 70s, well we're going to find out what would have happened.

>>49597349
Debt/GDP is insane and the US debt will need easing to service it in the future. Not saying it's gonna happen any time soon, but they're basically calling a breaking point where the fed has to back off in the future

>>49596738
>negative interest rates
>when the only way out of this quandary is by jacking up rates to 20% or more
these are the new permanent prices, deflation creates more problems than curbing existing inflation

>>49596898
Hyperinflation because GDP and trade dominance trumps all. The magic will be in offloading the impact of hyperinflation to other countries.

>>49597349
A firm belief nurtured over the last 15-25 years that the Fed will never, ever let asset values drop.

>>49597547
There is no way out except a complete reworking of the economic system along the lines of Georgism. Wealth (ie. assets, not income) disparity has grown completely unsustainable.
As for jacking up rates, it will just cause economic contraction, not necessarily enough to offset inflation though. With a little bad luck we will see the first case of a depression during an inflationary period in first world economies.

Depresflation? Depflation? Presflation?

Insider here. Get your asses onto bitDAO before it is too late. You have whatever the fuck amount of time OP mentioned. same shit, do it before 2 late hurrdurr.

The *big boys* are forcing him to crash the markets. His hands are tied.

>>49597349
The deficit is too large and a recession will end in the US defaulting on debt and collapsing trade relations. This means choosing whether or not to run the printers isn't an option. They can only choose how fast we'll inflate.

>>49597847
Cope, they’ll renegotiate debts before they risk the status of the dollar as the reserve currency.

>>49597847
>The deficit is too large
The deficit is paper, it's only relevant if enough people believe it's relevant. Look at Japan.

>>49595227
>>49597140
>>49597349
>>49597784
>>49597842
Oh, wagie....

>>49598025
The US is never going to default unless congress goes full retard (renegotiating is defaulting). They'll just print. If foreign governments mass dump bonds, the Fed will put them all on their balance sheet and the US will go to trade balance.
The impact of this is far far less than defaulting.

>>49598025
There's no need to worry about losing reserve status if other countries inflate faster or if a CBDC is introduced.
A united front mandating inflation, growing GDP, servicing debt, bolstering trade, and maintaining relatively strong reserve status >>>> chaotic global recession/depression, a strong dollar, and zero control of what happens next.

>>49598266
Okay so hyperinflation and economic collapse is preferable?

>>49596738
lol

>>49598351
Unironically yes. Consider it from a politician's POV and not the POV of a pleb.

What I'm gatheringg is a 0.75 interest hike or even 0.5 is not fully priced in and we will dump on wednesday

>>49598397
but the present political situation is a tinderbox, further QoL collapse would dump gasoline on it

>>49598442
Why do you think they're working in new gun legislation?

>>49598336
>eastern commodity-backed currency emerges
nothing personnelle kid

>>49598351
>Okay so hyperinflation and economic collapse is preferable?
Yes, by far.

If the US tries to renegotiate debt, the creditors will just demand it be converted into say gold, ruble or yuan debt. The dollar won't be the reserve currency any more AND the US will be in external debt in something they can't print. Better to just have a debt jubilee and start over.

Ride the reserve currency train (ie. the trade deficit train) as far as it can go, then burn all the debt. It's the most rational option.

>>49598351
The fed likes high inflation because it can “inflate” the debt away. That is what Powell is trying to do right now, whether it will succeed without something collapsing is a different story

>>49598585
>>49598587
so people are just going to accept $30 gas and $50 happy meals?

>>49598669
We’ll see

>>49598669
Just remove gas and food from inflation calcs and have the media tell people everything is fine :^)

>>49598669
Once wages catch up, yes. It'll be rough for two years or so and then the masses will do a 180 because a $15-25 federal min wage gets approved.

>>49598587
what if this was Powell's plan all along
transitory my ass

>>49598669
The alternative is riding their bicycles to factories to produce stuff for foreigners while eating mostly rice at home.

Reserve currency status and default can not be combined, the moment the US defaults the reserve currency status ends. When it ends it's better to go into trade balance than debt slavery.

>>49598669
Obviously. They're goys

>>49598058
the deficit is real money paid by rich fucks so the government can keep spending
if the FED stops printing the rates of those bonds get higher and higher as the rich fucks stop believing they can sell those bonds (which are of course never repaid again) for printed money to the FED

In Japan they DID eventually turn back on the printer, after they got the change they wanted (an independent central bank)

>>49598823
People already get paid that much, actual $8/hour salaries are pretty rare nowadays. And guess what, they're still getting priced out of daily life.

>>49598786
But that's not working anymore because daily expenditures are the one thing you can't provide cope for. Platitudes are worthless when people can't eat.

>>49598912
Sounds like it's an actual inescapable quagmire caused by a decade+ of unsustainable infinite growth and the piper is coming to collect no matter what

>>49598669
Yes.

>>49598137
too bad Chomsky was smart enough to see how some of it worked but too dumb to rid himself of all propaganda
man has too big an ego to see the truth I suppose

>>49598669
>so people are just going to accept doubled oil and housing prices in a couple years?

>>49598587
Politicians like deficits, because running deficits is easier than increasing taxes.

The Fed is mostly along for the ride. They have very little room balancing employment, inflation and affordability of the deficit. The Fed's freedom is pretty much nil unless they go full retard. Raising rates during a supply shock triggered recession is going full retard.

>>49599030
Jake Paul of all people coming out against the establishment should be a massive signal to you that normies have unironically had enough.

>>49599097
They're not though, inflation is the issue of our tiem and is already massively contributing to social decay

>>49599102
>Raising rates during a supply shock triggered recession is going full retard
and it's exactly what's going to happen

>>49599121
true true, but I reckon a few more years until democracy is abolished
for now, people are still bearing it. Things will come to a head when someone gets elected with 'radical' ideas

Weimar round 2, I give it 6 more years though

>>49598585
>demand debt paid with form of currency other than the dollar
>suddenly your country is a hot bed for terrorism
>suddenly reminded of the dollars strategic naval base locations.
>die

They’ve dropped nukes for a lot less. Good luck with your little cope theory.

>>49599121
>massive signal to you that normies have unironically had enough.
Normies are cattle, they act like they have had enough and then forget all about it and accept it faster than you can blink.

>>49599121
Just lie to everyone everything is fine and turn on something more entertaining to watch, like the Ukraine war.

>>49598430
i say the market would pump if they raise higher than 50bp because then people know they take the inflation seriously and it wil come down then soon

>>49598988
The "independent" Japanese Central Bank has been growing it's balance sheet "independently" since the 70s, with a small hickup during the pre-2008 bubble.

Japan hasn't stopped printing in a long time and central bank independence is a joke.

>>49599370
the market is fueled by inflation anon it is tanking exactly because that inflation is being taken away.

>>49599274
>>49599251
again, it doesn't work when people can't eat and can't drive (basic functional necessity in America and Canada). food shortages are already expected so you won't have to wait long to see my point.

>>49599407
exactly my point, but yes you seem confused about one thing

You think the government is in charge.
It is the Central Bankers and their even wealthier masters that are in charge, that was the whole reason for the Japan bubble. It was engineered by the central bank, which lied to the government by using complex terms the politicians did not understand (later admitted by some of the people who ran it)

>>49599421
there will always be inflation,the system is designed like this so why is it crashing when inflation is at ath

>>49599370
no it means dollars will be more valuable and recession
which means cheaper assets

>>49599455
>again, it doesn't work when people can't eat and can't drive (basic functional necessity in America and Canada).
You're fucking dumb bro. America and Canada aren't third world countries lmao

>>49599455
Im all for people finally standing up for their basic needs but i don’t think it will happen , nothing ever happens. The masses now would gladly just roll over and die than stand up for themselves and what matters…

>>49599499
Because the present valuation of the S&P 500, NASDAQ etc is entirely fictional, i.e. literally does not exist. Tesla being worth infinity billion dollars is as real as the toothy fairy or queen of england. That's not to say it's not valuable, but not at it's present hysterical valuation. Same with all other tech companies

>>49599537
I'm saying they're about to be you retard, look outside monkey

>>49599217
>demand debt paid with form of currency other than the dollar
My point was that the US would never default.

The US will just keep running deficits, the Fed will just keep doing QE every time no one wants to buy the dollar bonds. If foreigners dump bonds, they'll also get hovered up by QE.

That's the way the debt will be handled, not by negotiation.

>>49599580
>I'm saying they're about to be you retard, look outside monkey
yeah bro two more weeks. Everyone's fucking starving to death right now I see it everywhere!

>>49599499
you need to understand how inflation works anon
the money that is causing the current inflation was printed in 2020 and the inflation is only noticed as it trickles into the economy

yes it can never be reversed (unless they actually start burning money)

They may claim it is reversed by selling FED assets back onto the open market. Not so, those assets are only bought by rich fucks if they believe they can later sell them back to the FED for even more (because bonds and MBS are of course never getting repaid).

So the current uncertainty is simply uncertainty on the FED's promise to do so. The rest is theatre. Rich fucks know that bond rates and mortgage rates spiking means money being pulled out of stocks. But it is purely temporary.

Unless the FED actually stops printing but then the debt bubble explodes and as many have pointed out, that's impossible. The only way you could believe that is by misunderstanding what the FED really is: a tool designed to rule.

>>49599492
Central bankers are easier to replace than supreme court judges, they have no cohersive power over government.
They can do retarded shit, but mostly they do what's expected of them.

>>49599659
$5.00 gas was an apocalypse trope in I Am Legend but keep holding on to your delusion. The present admin has expressed zero interest in alleviating the present situation so EOY the empty shelves of last year will be a joke as milk and eggs moon past $10-15 (if you can even get it). If your simian brain can even comprehend this sentence do yourself a favor and buy some rice from the local asian store, just try not to scare the locals in the process ape.

And by the way, babies dependent on formula ARE literally starving to death now.

>>49599696
It can be reversed. You’re just too much of a pussy to accept what that means. The fed has several me mechanisms to remove cash from the market. One of those methods is STRAIGHT UP RECALLING IT!!!

>>49599801
tell me you’re not a burger without telling me

>>49599801
they are all ex-bankers and their masters are the same people who run the banks (Rothschilds, Rockefellers, and other less famous unnamed ones)
They are ALWAYS ex-bankers. ALWAYS. If they are purely academic they will most likely have familial ties to bankers.
>mostly they do what's expected of them
yeah, from their real masters.
And then the government also does what's expected from them. You have the relation wrong buddy.

If a politician cannot be bribed (hard to find these days) he gets no publicity and votes. If they somehow were to manage to break through, the central bank will stop printing if they take an undesired direction. It's what's happened to every dictator in recent history.

Want to know who Napoleon said was his real enemy? The english bankers. You can look it up.

>>49599987
I know what the BoJ is AND I'm not predicting Japanese hyperinflation in two weeks like the average burger Zerohedger ... the odds of me being a burger really aren't very high.

>>49599950
>STRAIGHT UP RECALLING IT
hahaha

>>49599948
>And by the way, babies dependent on formula ARE literally starving to death now.

>>49600202
it's true and not funny

>>49600202
OOOH OOOH AAAAH AAAH BANANA

>>49598058
>The deficit is paper
No, the deficit is a reminder that everything we've built in the past was predicated on increased productivity that never materialized in the present. If the money cannot be returned the living stadards that came with it will.

>>49599950
> STRAIGHT UP RECALLING IT!!!

>>49600127
There are no masters, there are no conspiracies. There are just stand alone complexes and self serving rationalizations by greedy fucks to shape the world into one which benefits them and the people closest to them.

Occasionally also there are complete retards. If Powell really knew the absolute shit show he's going to unleash, he wouldn't be doing it. He really think he's fighting inflation because he has to, helping a couple of his friend insider trade the downward market movements along the way.

There's no cabal planning the greatest depression, just a standalone idiot.

>>49600431

>>49600431
Powell plays his role well, that's why he has you convinced I guess.
I also used to not believe it anon but I encourage you to look deeper into things.

>>49600384
All the factories build in the mean time are still there. All the expertise acquired in the mean time is still there.
If you make the external debt disappear, all it does for certain is make the trade deficit disappear. The productive capital in the US is still there ready to be used.

>>49598669
It won't be the $30 gas it'll be the whole family prostitutes for ¥100 that breaks people

>>49600431
You were probably a geed in college. Accept that there are people smarter than you in high places who can see trends you cannot, and work from there.

>>49599537
You're clearly posting from pissrael lol. I can smell the matzo from here

>>49600596
Good thing that people have been pushing to normalize sex work as real work for years prior to this whole economic fiasco! Now instead of it seeming like people are resorting to sex work because of economic factors, the media can introduce the opinion that people are happily and freely choosing to do sex work for reasons which are entirely independent of the economy!
It's almost like someone's been playing 7D chess for a few decades now!

>>49598587
So we're at the stage where we are printing money to pay our debts?

Is this an accurate assessment?

>>49600558
Good ole soviet style thinking. This is a zero sum game. Those factories were built on borrowed money, which is someone else's liability, so that there is still a hole to be filled somewhere - in our case, in pensions, social security etc. all of which are functionally bankrupt. Keep filling the hole with fake money and see what happens to prices.

>>49600400
>>49600182
Dumbasses. They recall it from banks/institutions. They have several different ways of taking money out of the market. I don’t have time to explain to you how the world works.

>>49600983
It’s been that way you’re entire life.

>>49600431
>bluepilled: the post

>>49595227
>salvation
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!

>>49601067
>it's been that way you are entire life
Yes I know what you meant.

What I meant is- This is being openly talked about? Like, it is understood that this is what is being done?
That we are printing money backed by nothing to pay off our debts?

>>49601141
Yes it’s openly talked about. We’re printing money back by debt to pay off our debts.

In July the European Union will for the first times raise interest rates

Strap in faggots for round tow :D

>>49600997
>Good ole soviet style thinking.
Most of the time they could eat, sometimes a government has central plan a bit and think in terms of production capability and consumption demand. If the production capability is actually there, that helps immensely.
>Those factories were built on borrowed money, which is someone else's liability
The factories are real, the debt is paper. A hole dug in red on the page of a ledger.

So pensioners won't be able to replace their entire interior every two years ... yes, trade balance will lower quality of life. The US still has the ability and resources to maintain a good standard of living for everyone though.

>>49601198
we're fucked.

>>49597140
My bet is the Fed goes full QE but they also have a historically unpopular shitshow of an administration that might as well be (rightly) blamed for this mess. Fed comes out looking like the adults in the room just doing the >le right thing and let the plebs rage at DC just a little bit more

>>49601102
Blue pill is supposed to make you happy.

At least you red pilled faggots can blame shadowy forces. I just have the human condition to blame, which is a lot harder to fix.

>>49596738
Yeah sure bro

>>49601396
Only because the media confuses cowardice with being adult.

Almost everyone is too afraid to say "yeah, this inflation is fucking bad ... but there are worse things than high inflation". So they just let the Fed steer us to worse things than high inflation.

>>49601444
>actually it's REDPILLED to think this is just idiocy, it's COMFORTING to think that malevolence is also part of the human condition
this is such cope. it's a toxic combination of malevolence and idiocy, conspiracies rely on the idiocy of the masses to disguise themselves and function predictably. you're just as wrong as anybody who thinks that without the kikes we would be living in a golden age.

>>49597349
>Where do people get this idea from?

Not knowing fuck-all about the 70s and 80s. Interest is going up until inflation stabilizes. In the 80s, it hit double digits.

That being said, the average debtload is exponentially larger this time around, so it may only take a 4.5 to 5% interest rate to stagnate everything and cause inflation stability - as long as they stop these moronic sanctions on Russian oil.

I just thank Christ I paid my mortgage off. It's going to get very nasty for a lot of people very soon.

please give us an exit pump I'm dying over here man

I really should have stayed out of stocks what the hell was I thinking

>>49598025
>>49588888
>>49577777
>>49599999
>>49566666

So does anyone know what's going to happen? Is now the time to invest in beanie babies?

>>49597488
>Debt/GDP is insane
doesn't mean shit because we have globalization

>>49599948
>And by the way, babies dependent on formula ARE literally starving to death now

Weird... Amazon.ca has no shortage of formula, but amazon.com has a massive shortage of it. I guess you lot really fucked yourselves in the ass when you elected a custard brained dementia patient to run your country.

>>49595227
He should grow some balls and do a 100 points hike now.

>>49602334
>So does anyone know what's going to happen?
Powell.

The market has already priced in a large rate increase at this point. The downward slide won't end, but likely not fast enough to make shorting a sure win.
>Is now the time to invest in beanie babies?
Now is the time to cry that you didn't predict the dive, then just gamble on the next big market movement and be wrong about that too.

>>49602647
It hasn't priced in a 100 BPS which is on the cards, it hasn't priced in a 10% target either

>>49596898
both

>>49596825
you must be 18 to post here

>>49597140
>fucking the economy
>to get rid of inflation
lol

>>49602334
>So does anyone know what's going to happen? Is now the time to invest in beanie babies?
>>49602900
>It hasn't priced in a 100 BPS which is on the cards, it hasn't priced in a 10% target either
Well there you have it anon ... short everything.

>>49598025
>he thinks the parasite lizard elite care about the US having the reserve currency

Basically should I sell all my stocks that aren't at a loss before the announcement?

>>49603166
Yes unironically. now is not the time to be exposed to retail, switch to commodities since $10 gas is a guaranteed

>>49598669
yes, and they'll applaud and cheer for it as long as there are no mean tweets and toddlers can mutilate their genitals and they can take unlimited boosters

i got this bros.

>>49602958
you must be 12. go get mommy.

>>49600431
>There's no cabal planning the greatest depression, just a standalone idiot.
lol dude wake up

>>49603207
What about the things I have that are already at a loss? Is it worth to just take the loss and lose the money? My Crypto is fucked but I will keep onto it at this point.

The meeting that saves the world economy

>>49596812
Don't tell them yet, I'm still accumulating.

>>49600431
>no conspiracies
bitch, please
https://youtu.be/QZj5jN3Lylc

50 BPS and QT in July. Markets will go up because "just" 0.5% is bullish now. A week later retards will realize it's still huge ass hike, we go below 20k and I slurp like nobodies business while /biz/ panic sells the bottom

>>49595227
Remember, the Fed Presidents banned themselves from owning stock back in the peak last year. We are all polishing brass on the titanic.

>>49599659
Yuri bezmenov called people like you useful idiots. You wont see what's going on until you are kicked in the ass by a jackboot and by then it is too late

>>49596825
I cant wait till all you shitcoin kids get BTFO and fuck off lol /biz/ will be peak comfy

>>49597222
>BRO YOU NEED TO BE SCARED OF 75BPS INCREASES LET ALONE 100 (one hundred)BPS!!!!
>BRO DONT EVEN LET ME TELL YOU ABOUT A 125BPS INCREASE ITS TOO SCARY!
whatever

>>49596738
how much soxl are you bag holding?

>>49608468
LMAO TRUE

>>49599217
They dropped nukes when others didn't have nukes.
Your forget your place in the world, which is why you now have this predicament.
Dollar reserve currency status is dead. Libya has stopped the oil flow.

>>49608165
>whatever
the market is doing this and they haven't even started QT yet lol "whatever"
crypto zoomer get wrecked

Negative rates wtf are u talking about a send source

>>49598266
The US has defaulted before, it's not inconceivable that it could default again. I personally don't see it, but it's not out of the cards. We defaulted under Nixon (told everyone we would no longer honor the dollar as gold, as was promised to the entire world, and why the world began using USD as the reserve), and that wasn't very long ago.