/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>49391617
>Guys the thing everyone knows about isn't priced in

>>49391700
It doesn't matter if you know or don't know. Rates are increased -> money become more expensive -> liquidity leave the market.
Everybody knew about previous rate hikes and we still dumped from 48k to 25k.

>>49391617
>The FED is increasing (again) interest rates in a few days this month
lmao there is no way they are going to do this

What if the opposite happens because there's consensus among all normies that it is going to dump

>>49392031
>the ust depeg was priced in
>resulting in the second largest bitcoin holder was forced to sell over a few days, which was also priced in
kek this place has the best takes

>>49391700
>>49392031
thats why iam wondering if this is priced in fully yet, or if some just wait for the opportunity to jump to other vehicles, i am not even sure what the mechanism is by which rate hikes of the dollar affect crypto price, or if its all sentiment

>>49391617
its bullish you fucking idiot. they will hike less than expected

>>49392088
>i am not even sure what the mechanism is by which rate hikes of the dollar affect crypto price, or if its all sentiment
easy

>btc is correlated to NDX
>if NDX dumps, BTC dumps harder and the rest of crypto dumps even harder

>>49392107
no idea what ndx is and how btc is correlated to that thing, but thank you anon

>>49392107
>>49392158
its the cute little nasdaq - so how come bitcoin is correlated with this?

>>49392088
You take a loan and put it into stocks. As long as stocks give more than % on your loan, you are in profit. If rates increased, loans cost more and either stocks profit cannot cover the increase or your profit is so low it is better to put money somewhere else. And so you sell.
The important part is you do this the moment it becomes non-profitable and that happens exactly when rates are increased, regardless of whether you knew about the raise beforehand or not.
PS: I understand nothing about what I just wrote here.

>>49392059
>lmao there is no way they are going to do this
Anon, I...

>>49392281
thats an arbitrage move - credit arbitrage
or stock arbitrage, so you are saying that a significant proportions of the crypto market are leveraged positions enabled through credit lines with variable interest rates?

>>49391700
>everyone knows
are you sure about that? "everyone" isn't paying attention to the markets anymore.

>>49392059
I hope this is bait.

The second I short BTC it will enter the eternal bull and ascend to 1,000,000 a coin

>>49392476
>>49392354
lmao the fed is a political organization, they are there to help biden
The government won't be able to fund itself without the fed's artificially low interest rates.
They are going to backpeddle like they ALWAYS fucking do.

>>49392375
Not necessary. People also rely on the ability to get cheap loans in case they urgently need money. If they can't do that anymore, they might start selling whatever they hold. So if you have a business that needs loans, then you might be become unprofitable after rate hikes, thus you sell whatever you hold to get money to live through tough times.

>>49391617
It's been priced in. The Fed has given a schedule. The market has already reacted to the multiple hikes scheduled this year

>>49392573
>They are going to backpeddle like they ALWAYS fucking do.
My friend, the next 2 hikes are absolutely locked in. Latest jobs numbers BEAT expectations.
>>49392650
>It's been priced in.
Trad markets don't "price in" like crypto does. They react on news.

>>49393322
>Latest jobs numbers BEAT expectations.
Wouldn't that mean they are less likely to raise rates?

>>49392422
Literally everyone is talking about muh recession right now faggot. Wtf are you smoking

>>49393333
yikes, have there ever been quads more wasted? better job numbers means the Fed has more room to raise rates because they aren't causing a recession yet

>>49393378
>better job numbers means the Fed has more room to raise rates because they aren't causing a recession yet
When the recession starts they WILL lower rates again, it's inevitable.
The consequences of higher rates will be disasterous for the economy.

>>49393423
Lol how are you arguing? Take the opportunity to learn some things.

>>49393581
>Lol how are you arguing?
You haven't be able to contradict me so far.
Imagine thinking the fed is going to be able to raise rates without destroying the economy.
They won't.

>>49393344
because recession is looming FAGGOT. don't try that gaslighting shit with me mother fucker.

>>49393628
You sound like you desperately need rates to not increase or else you will be heemed. They will increase. Whether that's another 50bps that is planned and announced since months ago or higher than that is all that remains to be seen. You have been warned, you will be heemed.

>>49393746
What happens when the US government runs out of money? How are they going to be able to pay the interest on the debt when rates are higher?

>>49391617
i dont take financial advice from niggers

>>49393780
Anon, if all those conspiracy youtuberoos that you listen to are right, how come the US dollar is absolutely mogging every other currency in the world?

>>49393834
>Anon, if all those conspiracy youtuberoos
This isn't a conspiracy. This is a common fact.
This is embarrassing anon. Just answer the question.
> how come the US dollar is absolutely mogging every other currency in the world?
world reserve status which is temporary

>>49393780
trillion
dollar
coin

>>49392185
see arthur:
https://cryptohayes.medium.com/the-q-trap-f1a38312f00f

>>49393780
>he thinks it's possible to run out of money
>he thinks more people wouldn't just get fleeced or debt trapped to pay for it
You will be heemed.

>>49393333
checked retard

>>49393780
>US government runs out of money
Literally impossible, that's how the system is designed - that's the whole point. You can't run out of money.
>How are they going to be able to pay the interest on the debt when rates are higher
Well we're seeing that already on the fiscal side over the past year. US budget actually ran a net surplus this year on higher than expected tax revenues (people cashing out of stocks, real estate, crypto in 2021) combined with lower net spending (i.e. no more stimulus bills). The budget has been so tight that it's caused a $2T shortfall in the treasury bill market. There's literally not enough T-bill liquidity to satisfy the demand of private market since March 2021. This is reflected in reverse repo. Higher net taxes as inflation pushes people into higher brackets and increases payroll tax income across the board, coupled with less government spending -> the burden of payment is shifted ALWAYS - remember this - ALWAYS, by the government, onto the people. That's how they'll pay for it - they won't, you and everyone else who isn't in the club will.

>>49393652
>looming
bruh the real economy has been in a recession for 2 years already.

>>49392059
Exactly and precisely THIS

>>49392080
Is that why the ndx and spx dumped too? Turbobrainlet

>just short guys
>never shorts
what's your deal?

>>49395566
>Literally impossible, that's how the system is designed - that's the whole point. You can't run out of money.
LOL They haven't run out of money because interest rates have been so low. what happens when they go up?
>Well we're seeing that already on the fiscal side over the past year. US budget actually ran a net surplus this year on higher than expected tax revenues (people cashing out of stocks, real estate, crypto in 2021) combined with lower net spending (i.e. no more stimulus bills). The budget has been so tight that it's caused a $2T shortfall in the treasury bill market. There's literally not enough T-bill liquidity to satisfy the demand of private market since March 2021. This is reflected in reverse repo. Higher net taxes as inflation pushes people into higher brackets and increases payroll tax income across the board, coupled with less government spending -> the burden of payment is shifted ALWAYS - remember this - ALWAYS, by the government, onto the people. That's how they'll pay for it - they won't, you and everyone else who isn't in the club will.
You're proving my point.
Raising taxes won't be popular, they won't cut spending, so they will print the money.