/biz/ - Business & Finance

Poop!

*ahem*
Fuck siga and fuck anime

did you know that the s&p 500 options chain has hidden tigers?

why is trader workstation such a piece of shit

Do NOT redeem the SIGA
this is legal advice

>>49373164

>ANON! You're not actually thinking about setting up thousands of fake accounts to shill a stock, are you?! We don't think that would be a good idea.......

>>49373176
>there's a tiger on the blockchain

>>49373176
>>49373207
post yfw the tiger breaks free from his cage
yes
YES
THE TIGER IS OUT

Reminder that if you cannot solve simple math puzzles, you're too dumb to pick single stocks and should just DCA into VTI.

Bros, I'm distraught. My Latina girlfriend left to spend the night at her mothers house. We were only able to have sex in the morning, I won't be able to do it with her at night. I don't want to look at flow and charts, I want to have sex with my Latina girlfriend!

>>49373246
between 30-70%

Blackrock, the Fed's biggest partner knows rate hikes can't solve inflation because its supply related and we can't just tell everyone to sit around unemployed for months again, but without stimmies, food and energy. Powell pivot incoming.
Those who don't see it will be gored.

>>49373262
go to her mom's house and score the threesome

>>49373246
1 in 2.
I’ll go buy some VTI.

>>49373207
>>49373218

>>49373246
Your riddle was taking too long to read so I didn't bother past the first sentence.
50%
It either happens or it doesn't. Simple as.

BREAKOUT HAPPENS THIS WEEK BROS PLEASE

>>49373319
Yeah to the downside lmao get bogged kid.

>>49373246
100%, i saw the other side when you picked it from the bag

haha idiot

>>49373304
>tigerball
tigerball
>tigerball
tigerball

>>49373311
We’ll there are only 2 cards that have blue at all. If the one pulled has blue, it’s either the blue/blue or the blue/red. So there’s 50% chance that the other side is blue. Am I retarded ?

>people unironically bought the siga meme

>>49373319
dont worry i'm cataloguing your shilling so i can send it to the sec and get that sweet whistleblower reward money so even if you do win big you're screwed. Nothin personell goyim

>>49372994
>Would like to see it rally strong before entry.
Lol. It's up 20% in the last month. The time to short NRDS is now.
Borrow costs are fine, so are put premiumss.

The white schoolshooters do not listen to me

>>49373334
Pssshhhh yeah right.

>>49373289
>>49373342
It's not 1:2

Good thing I didn't post pic related, the amount of sperging it causes is unbelievable.

>>49373342
>Am I retarded ?
I wish I could tell you anon, but I really didn't read it.
And I'm not gonna either.

>>49373355
BRO IF THEY DO AN ACTUAL INVESTIGATION THEYLL SEE I DID NOTHING WRONG I BLEW UP MY ACCOUNT 4X IN THE PAST FOR BUYING OPTIONS AND I NEVER POSTED ANYTHING OR SHILLED OR DID ANYTHING ILLEGAL WITH SIGA YOU SHOULD GO FUCK YOURSELF FOR TRYING TO SCARE ME

post QTs

>>49373342
it's 66%
given that you have a blue side, it is more likely that it is from the double blue card

>>49373382
Freedom of speech is only for civilians, not slaves ahahahaha.

What the most medium risk options strategy. I’m talking absolutely average, nothing special, bland

>>49373382
haha i have the private messages you sent me on your reddit account already. the sec isn't going to believe you when you say i faked it all

>>49373366
Can you explain why it’s not 50/50 still? If you eliminate the probability of the first coin, there’s a 1:2 chance that the next will be either side.
I’m not a sperg, I’m an 80 IQ hammer bangy guy.

>>49373401
Covered calls.

>>49373395
With pleasure.

>>49373415
if one lands heads that means the other one is due to land tails. every play roulette?

if the unusual never happened there would be no difference in people and then there wouldnt be any fun in life.
the game would become merely a matter of addittion and substraction. its the guessing that develops a man's brainpower. just consider what you have to do..

to guess right.

>>49373401
Whenever i see these anatomy pics,i think of god as a mad scientist.

>cramer openly denying any fears of recession
its over.

>>49373401
That’s why toothaches are debilitating.

>>49373395
Im waiting for the day we get to invest in Mars SPAC land deals. Betting if it has minerals of economic quality or not.

>>49373396
Correct!
Solve pic related to enable options.

>>49373415
I meant that the card one is not 1:2. It's 2:3, because you don't pick a card, you pick a side. And there are 3 blue sides, 2 of which have blue on the other side.

The coin one is not 1:2 either though.
Hint: it's not one coin after the other, but both simultaneously. The word 'given' is extremely important.

>>49373481
Ah ok I get it now. Thanks for the learnin, Amon.

>>49373481
I'll place all the red marbles in the left jar, then I'll place all the blue marbles in the left jar. When I grab a marble I'll make sure to reach deep.

The right jar remains empty

100% guarantee.

Keep buying the dip anons! To the moon!

>>49373481
1 red in 1 jar, all the rest in the other jar, 74.5% chance right?

Just tell me what to buy

Options preferably pls

10 year yield is at 2.94%. Pretty close to touching 3% again and might take the market with it again.

>>49373285
I don't want to have sex with her mother, are you crazy? I want her to come home so we can have intense racemixing sex like we usually do.

ITT retards who fall for the "math puzzle" b8

>the "you must solve THESE puzzles or you are too dumb to pick single stocks" poster is back
Protip: If you don't get material non public trading information from your network, then you are too poor to actually make money with single stocks and should just keep posting meme riddle images thinking its about autism.

>>49373534
>options preferably
Try learning poker or just try blackjack if you're a brainlet

>>49373481
Fuck your math games, Lehman went bankrupt.

Waittress is a gigastacy
Pretty sure if I try and shame her she is gonna break my dick

I just want raging anon to come back and write another 1000 character rant.

>>49373543
whatever you say fag

I would like to talk to the HYG short poster please

>>49373548
anon we are preparing for a SEC audit
dont say things like that

>>49373591
The cucumbers are still 10kg, because overnight the CIA snuck in and replaced the missing 5% of water with LSD.

>>49373534
buy long call leaps on the top 9 companies in the SPY etf, then buy a long call leaps on the company that provides the ratings for SPY.

nigga my food bill went up 150 bucks
nigga my insurance went up 40 bucks
nigga a shitty steak from kroger is 20 bucks
nigga the governments lying about this inflation shit on god nigga no cap fr fr

>05/19/2022
>Start warning people to long smallpox treatments
>Jannies continually (((Shut it down)))
>SIGA play emerges focusing on smallpox treatment
You heeded my warning. You listened.

>>49373591
the new weight of the cucumber is 90% water it says so right there

>>49373600
How am I a f*g? Because I miss my Latina girlfriend and I want to have sex with her and not her mother?

>>49373534
Go irresponsibly long on SPY or QQQ and hedge with deep OTM long dated TSLA puts
>like Bill Gates
Yes, like Bill Gates.
TSLA puts are cheaper, more liquid, and are better vol. insurance than SPY or QQQ puts

>>49373246
If you still think maths is the route cause of movements in the market then your eyes wide shut

>>49373613
>the SEC visits 4chan
I'm going to introduce them to Bluey

>>49373395
posted

>>49373401
covered calls and LEAPs

>Math

>>49373649
because you're posting on smg instead of going for the mother/daughter threesome

>>49373683
I was actually thinking deep itm covered calls on my leveraged garbage. Cover when it dips.

>>49373700
I've already got my mercury dimes, fren

>>49373640

>>49373712
This kindof works on non-dividend stocks
I've got this going on AMD right now - wrote some covered calls on it, it shoots up because le AMD. Should be assigned, but I just roll the calls each month and get a couple hundred per month that I use to buy wine and waifur commissions.

It's literally free money lol

>>49373649
post pics of your gf or stop larping
also short siga and uone and JANN

Reminder, pox is now world wide and calling it fake and gay makes you fake and gay

>>49373725
based and healthy masculine energy pilled

how do I short gas prices

How much capital do I need to life off day trading in bongland? I've been learning the past 18 months and live tested a strategy the past 5 months with a 100% return risking between 1-2% depending on the quality of the setup. I'm guessing around £50-100k if I want to pay myself an average salary (£40k) and grow my account

>>49373764
44 countries. All from a gay rave. Give me a break. They’re up to something again.

>>49373615
Bro that's a lot of LSD
>>49373640
Most people didn't get the smallpox vax because it was discontinued after boomers, some gen X got it but not all, no millennials and younger. Since most gays are disproportional younger the most at risk population is the least vaxed.
Probably bullish for SIGA

all in short amazon post split tmrw

this company going out of business

>>49373764
>less than 1000 confirmed cases
>worldwide
lol fake and gay

like I already said, short siga, then siga deez nuts, faggot

>>49373824
>this company going out of business
Are you kidding hahahaha

>>49373802
do you want to get heemed?

>>49373739
Too bad my account wont let me sell covered calls because missing margin req by being under 25k since the dumping.

>>49373819
After doing some more reading since then, I found the boomervaxx loses effectiveness after ~10 years anyway so they'll have to get it again if needed.

>>49373843
I never use Amazon anymore unless I have to. I have gotten so much terrible quality Chinese shit from there in the last year and I don’t even use it often, same with ebay

>>49373856
Isn't the whole point of _covered_ calls that you don't need margin for them (as long as the shares are not on margin)? I have a non-margin account and can totally sell covered puts and calls.

Are calls on IVOL a high IQ play?

>>49373843
look at the balance sheet

they are cash flow negative

employees unionizing

shipping costs soaring from diesel prices

losing cloud marketshare to azure and google cloud

declining prime memberships

they will be begging for bailout soon

>>49373481
this one's cute because people will try to solve it via calculus and fail because they never properly learned which conditions need to hold for the methods they learned to actually work

>>49373982
>losing cloud marketshare to azure and google cloud
Really?Why? Sauce

>>49373914
Iunno, I tried selling them as margin as well as cash positions. Neither were possible while account is under 25k. I thought maybe my spread leap got assigned wrong but even after lost parts of the short leg I still cant sell any.

>>49373361
Have you taken a position yet? With size?

>>49374045
amzn trading about 60% above its intrinsic value

>>49373926
There are better ways to hedge inflation

>>49374088
I have a series of puts at different expiries that i bought for NRDS. I'm waiting on a huge earnings dump to take it below $8.

>>49374112
FAGMAN stocks are national security now and not allowed to be fairly valued.

>>49373366
hh 1/4
ht 1/4
th 1/4
tt 1/4
even 4 not valid, so (1/4)/(3/4) = 1/3.

>>49373382
Mein Negro, you are safe. If you were actively trying to set something up to spread sentiment manipulation just stop lmao and you'll be ight. It's clearly already taking off organically anyways.

t. prayed for you

SIGA SIGA SIGA SIGA SIGA SIGA SIGA SIGA SIGA SIGA SIGA

>>49373481
One jar with just one red bead, and the other jar with every bead

>>49374129
even if thats true amzn is extremely overpriced compared to msft/appl/goog etc

redditors buying up amzn bc of the split going to get pounded

beliee dat

>>49374162
Is this the new UUUU?

>>49374154
thanks for the prayers bro :D

>>49374112
>>49374129
At what price is MSFT a buy

>>49373382
>Blew up account 4x in the past
>Has $100k to throw away on SIGA FDs
Where do people get the income to fund this hobby? We can't all be 2Scoops earning $300k a year.

>>49373874
What video is that screencap from and where can I find it? It seems incredibly based.

>>49373246
There are actually 6 possibilities:
first face | second face
bb
bb (flip)
br
rb
rr
rr (flip)
We only see the first face here so
(2 / 6) / (3 / 6) = 2/3

>>49374194
190

maybe 200 to be safe

Where is the MSFT LEAPs anon by the way

>>49374217
https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/its-all-so-tiresome

>>49374198
Stop obsessing over trip niggers, nigger

Oil is going to start crashing soon.
Take your profits.

>>49374217
https://youtu.be/CsyHbj_SHGA

>>49374275
Source?

Siga

SIGA Stock Bhenchods.

SIGA

Siga Chad's, can we make it happen?

>>49374309
idk man, the vanna pre-futures aren't looking good for SIGA

>SIGA

Are all the siga posters just pajeets?

>>49374289
Extremely based, thank you
>>49374251
Thank

Siga more like sugonadese nuts

>>49374363
gottem

>>49374338
I'm seeing lots of positive volga on SIGA 30 DTE call expiries. Zomma is lining up perfectly for the vanna slingshot on SIGA.

>>49374229
>>49374171
>>49374144
Nice.

>>49374289
That chink is incredibly based.

>>49374349
Nah , I'm elephant anon and just woke up to spam this tranny soxl board.

>>49374349
Every single person posting on /smg/ is Hindu.

SIGA? Never heard of it, only oil and nat gas

>>49374349
Of course.
Who else gets so excited about a $12 share. For the Pajeet this is his(female) chance to make it big again(the 10th pump and dump he lost his village crop money on this year).

>>49374349
Do nod redeem the SIGA shares Ma'aam.
Do.. DO NOT... DO NOT REDEEM DE SHARES, MADARCHOD BENCHOD, AAAAH

>>49374379
love your analysis, one day im gonna remember to check zomma by myself

>>49373481
50.248%

>>49374349
No, I'm mexican
Por favor Buy my bags, hombre

>>49374289
Movie name is Empire of Dust, and it is available for free on Youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kOkrYW3vF0o

>>49373591
5 KG

>>49374491
>SIGA annual meeting of shareholders

>>49374118
>There are better ways to hedge inflation
go on

>>49374127
>I have a series of puts at different expiries that i bought for NRDS. I'm waiting on a huge earnings dump to take it below $8.

>LATEST EARNINGS DATE MAY. 3
you already bought puts? They didn't miss too bad last earnings. and people are actively seeking out credit right now.

the business looks like a bad one I would want to short if things start collapsing, but they may actually be benefitting

>>49373540
>10 year yield is at 2.94%. Pretty close to touching 3% again and might take the market with it again
Yield curve already inverted.
Nobody on this board doubts it’s going lower

>>49374517
Kek

>>49373591
5kg, my pooper scooper

The pickle is 0.5kg
95% gets us to 10kg
90% gets us to 5kg
But guess what’s as little as 13% but also as much as 52%?

>>49374517
You will see Monday who last laugh sir

>>49374545
>nobody on this board are delusional mumus
Mah fren you have missed out on a lot of bullcope posting. Even if most of it wasn't real and just designed to get people to lose as much money as possible, it is very much still a thing.

Is the fed really basing any thought whatsoever on the Philips curve?

God, KFC chicken portions are miniscule. One of my "tenders" was literally a sliver of chicken, like a pencil. I get way bigger and better chicken from Winco, and cheaper.

Anyways, buy SIGA or USO on monday?

>Pre-Futures

>>49373481
Take all the Blue marbles and layer them on the bottom take all the Red marbles and layer them on the top. There a near 100% chance.

>>49374473
it’s a great movie
I wish there were more like it
Any anons know of any?
/smg/ saturday movie goers?

>>49374638
Too late for USO. It's been pumping nicely for a few weeks now.
Still on time for SIGA tho, I'm getting some, on Monday

Ahem, fellow anons, I think the SIGA anon is trying to tell us we need to all buy calls on SIGA so we can gamma squeeze the stock trading market for SIGA and leave the market makers with large losses on their hedged shares, in some sort of concentrated stock price manipulation tactic.

>>49374390
Dunno. The bonus question sounds like seeded classical bandit to which there is no single solution. One possibility is to keep a table of estimated probabilities and an exploration probability epsilon, which we would start at, say, 1/3. We choose the most profitable machine so far (random at start) with 1-epsilon proability, we draw from it. We update our probability estimate for that machine based on the draw. If we hit exploration instead, we choose one of the other machines with odds inversely proportional to relative sampling quantity. Every so often, we reduce epsilon (for example, we could halve epsilon every 30 pulls).
For the bonus question, we can inversely weight the odds during exploration based on recency rather than sample quantity and keep a somewhat high exploration probability minimum (whereas that will go to 0 for the normal question).

>>49374665
Moneyball is preddy gud
So is Dune (80s ones, not the one from 2020)
There’s also that margin call movie

@49374720

Kindly post invite to secret stock manipulation chat room.

Regards,
Jeff

>>49374390
I don't get this one, it's 5000 on average. You achieve max points by gambling all the 10,000 pulls at one slot.
Odds changing over time would imply you can use the first thousand or so pulls to do a statistical analysis and depending on your risk management you put all other pulls in the best performing slot machine. If the odds are changing to be worse instead of better, no idea. If they change in unknown direction it all depends on the amount it can change

>>49374741
>margin call meme
>shitty dune adaptations
>fucking moneyball
even the big short couldnt make this list any worse, kys scoopsies

>>49374801
i like movies such as moneyball, margin call, the big short. Any more recommendations like that?

>>49374720
Why is it even classed as market manipulation if a group organizing for a strategic move on a stock? Is that not what an institution and bank do when they orginize their large force of traders/employees into a strategy.

>>49374275
>>49374292
He has none because hes a renewable shill. Even if Biden becomes BFFs with the Arabs in some visit of some kind the saudis even find enough materials to bring up production.
>>49374545
10 yr will settle at 5% imo.

>>49374390
I imagine the correct answer is that you pull the lever until you lose and switch machines. This would negate any need to keep track of chances, as you would naturally win more at whichever machine has the highest chance.

>>49374349
/smg/ has the lowest pajeet population in all of /biz/ but somehow that entire portion fell for the SIGA meme. SAD.

>>49374465
Do they come with free chips and salsa?
>>49374665
There is a quite good vice documentary (back when vice actually did journalism) On Liberia that's worth a watch: https://youtu.be/ZRuSS0iiFyo

>>49374813
NO. ABSURED. INCORRECT. THAT IS IB EMPLOYEES SHARING CONFIDENTIAL INTERNAL RESEARCH FOR FREEDOM OF MARKET INFORMATION MEANS ONLY. STOP. INCORRECT

>>49374813
Institutions are considered as monolithic persons, so it's effectively just one person doing the trading even if thousands of traders are involved.
Group manipulation is perfectly legal if you're rich or connected. For example, buffett did that to get his feet wet and it's lauded as a genius move and not a crime.
Technically it's not group manipulation if many people simply believe in SIGA and aren't buying for the purpose of causing unordinary stock movement.

siga please moon...

>>49374851
I declare /smg/ an institution.

>>49374801
You got any good rec.s?
>Le Big Short Classica
Bro, we’ve all watched that about a dozen times by now.

>>49374817
Okay that's smart i didn't think of that. But this theory works with each number of pulls or only with a substantial amount? Like 10,000 it works, but 100? At what point is it better to gamble and do all pulls at a single slot machine

>>49374731
Ayy, I forgot to archive the python script I made to get the best epsilon choosing strategy for these exact parameters.

I still have the code for pic related tho.

>>49374817
see >>49374785

>>49374817
You'd switch way too often with that strategy and these parameters. The Epsilon-greedy strat detailed above has a way better end-result, and it's relatively easy to keep score, it's like... 6 numbers.

>>49374596
whatever those things are, I heard they go in packs, and prefer forced sexual interactions

BYND convertible bonds trade at 40 cents on the dollar and yield nearly 20%. Holy fucking bagongas my bhenchodes!

>>49374817
I don't think so, because you would win more by staying on the 55% machine even after losing once you have good enough estimates to know who's who.

>>49374825
>all of /biz/ somehhow fell for buying stock in a company with an FDA approved treatment for an illness that is now in 44 countries and rising daily.
Really man?

>>49374888
>Free Cash Flow: -$570.07M
>Cash & Cash Equivalents: $547.86M
Yeah this is going to bankruptcy and delisting.
https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/bynd/statistics/

>>49374813
Because you don't have enough money connections and power to get away with shilling what you want to happen via media machines you own and control. If you did have that money, power, and those connections you could absolutely shill for whatever the actual fuck you wanted to happen in the markets, much like what happens now. That is literally the only distinction making it legal for CNBC/Fox Business/Yahoo et al to openly shill for/against specific businesses/market sectors. They have more money and power and connections than you do for it to be okay for them to do it whereas it is not if you do it.

>>49374932
i dont get the point of BYND, nobody in the village eats meat anyway

What did YOU buy Friday before close?

>>49374997
It's heckin virtuous but nobody's going to buy overpriced plant-based meat when the cost of food already went up 300%.

>>49374886
Since theirs a chance he could land heads an infinite number of times, the ngmi security is worth an infinite amount of money.

>>49374932
>Owned by Institutions (%) 61.80%
How much of that portion do you think is held in ESG funds that are pivoting their portfolios to include more oil so they don't lose all their investors?
BYND is such an obvious short right now.

>>49375002
Too fat

>>49374921
There just aren't that many homosexuals in the USA. Even if all of them got it becacuse they can't stop being hedons, it'd only be a billion in sales

>>49374886
The expected value, assuming a fair coin, is sum_i=1^inf i (1/2)^i
As I recall this should be equal to 2, so the price should be "above 2" for the fed to make a profit on NGMI.
I don't feel like deriving the value but the idea without using the series definition is that you can just do
E(x) = 0.5*1 + 0.5^2*2 ...
0.5E(x) = 0.5^2*1 + 0.5^3*2...
E(x) - 0.5E(x) = 0.5^1 + 0.5^2 + 0.5^3... = 0.5E(x)
and the rest follows

>>49374817
You would just end up roughly averaging out the 5 machines
I recommend the same, but you track the machine’s odds and only switch if the machine gets a loss that puts its overall odds below a different machine

Slight improvement could be made with simulated annealing in case your first pull of the 55 is a loss

Approach 2:
Do a quick population sample test of the 3 machines, with something like 20 pulls each to “prime” their odds (the expense of this is negligible in the context of 100,000 pulls)
See also: Optimal Stopping problem
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Optimal_stopping
There’s an example of this involving a Saudi prince that has to pick the prettiest wife from a line-up of 10,000 women, but I can’t find the link to what it’s called
>pic related to this approach

>>49374731
>The bonus question sounds like seeded classical bandit to which there is no single solution
JFC, a big brain among us!
I didn’t even recognize this as a classical bandit problem despite having heard of that before

>>49375064
>aren't that many homosexuals in the USA
My guy did you miss the part where the last thirty years of media has mass programmed people here to not reproduce and hate those that do? There's dozens of millions of gays here, if you count the closeted ones that like to preach and run for the republican party before they get caught smoking penises and have to step down.

>>49374390
The correct answer is you don't fucking gamble on slots at all ever because that is for old people to turn their social security checks back into tax revenue for the government.

>>49375073
>>49374886
This is where it gets lost to me, I somewhat know what you would need to do but I don't know the techniques or formulas. In the case of $1K I think I could manage as the margin is only on 0.000 decimals but with 10B it's too much math for me.

Luckily trading is mostly about psychology though, not maths.

>>49374349
good evening sir

>>49375027
Would you pay all your money for one? If not, is infinite really its fair price? Depends on the definition I guess.

>>49375070
The chance of n consecutive heads is 1/2^n, and the payout is 0.5*2^n.
The sum payout is
0.5*(1/2*2 + 1/4*4 + 1/8*8 ..) = inf

But, interestingly, if you have finite money and you play this game repeatedly, if the price you pay for a round is too high, you will go bankrupt with an almost 100% chance. And this prices scales with the amount of money you have.

>>49375140
>Luckily trading is mostly about psychology though, not maths.
This may be true but it does require quite a bit of maths, or else you will not be consistently successful.

URANIUM
R
A
N
I
U
M

the future...aint nuttin change, finna take over
ELECTRICITY GENERATION.

>>49375070
don't think the fed wins here
50% * $1 + 25% * $2 + 12.5% * $4 etc gives you an EV that is not actually bounded

this is a puzzle about the Kelly Criterion, not about finding a bound

SIGA bros are we Indian now?
>to meet this target proportionate to the Wargame we need to reach 1400 cases by EoW

>>49374886
1 dollar is the fair value as the pay out is 1:1 on a 50% outcome. However the house would demand an edge in order to facilitate this edge you would need to $1.10.

>>49375192
It's actually the St. Petersburg Paradox.
Kellying it up is one of the solutions to the paradox.

>>49375002
X, UUUU, MDB, and ESTC

>>49375180
Oh fuck, I misread the payout, I thought it was $i for payout instead of 2^i
Yeah, the sequence is infinite then.

>>49374901
>>49374886
>>49374870
If you’re doing a sample size of 1,000 rolls each let’s say out of 10,000, for a good margin of error, then you lost 150 rolls by not switching machines to the higher chance one. You gained 350 rolls, 5% of 7,000 at the correct machine. Net of 200 gained rolls picking the correct machine. If you switch machines when you lose, then you should on average win an extra rolling each machine equally, you end nuetral, 50% of rolls should win averaged. No gain. If you switch ever time you lose, you will lose less on the 45% machine and win more on the 55% machine, specifically you will win 2.5% more overall by negating the losses on the 45% roll, giving you a net 250 wins. 50 above the sample data strategy.

Look at it this way, if you had a machine with a 1% chance of winning, a 50% chance of winning, and a 99% chance of winning, your sample size losses wouldn’t make up for your wins just going to the winning machine

>>49375192
No, that sequence converges and it is indeed 2 as I recalled.
But as the other anons pointed out this isn't actually the sequence from the problem.
And this isn't related to kelly criteria at all. It could have been worked into a martingale question if there was loss involved though.

>>49375221

>>49375257
Simulate the different possibilities instead of guessing at it anon.

>>49374886
This one is just buy as many as you're comfortable investing and then resell them to gamblers.
Like >>49375027 said the theoretical value of these is infinite to someone desperate enough, it's like selling lottery tickets and you don't even have to pay the redeemers.
There'll always be the kind of retards out there that'll buy these off you.

>>49375180
>it does require quite a bit of maths, or else you will not be consistently successful.
Depends on your techniques you use, sure theta and gamma, things like cc, butterflies, straddles, strangles require some understanding but not that much of doing actual math. Plus there's tools to help, it's more about understanding and not about doing the actual calculations.

The less you actively trade the less you need math obviously. I'm mostly DCAing 100% of my liquidity in a few long positions I believe, always using a combination of shares and options depending on my timeline. Until major news or prices are achieved, be it in my portfolio or in the company, then it may be time to reevaluate

Percentage wise I am beating 99% of investors and 99% of active traders

Guys Walletinvestor.com said PLTR is going to 0.00001. It’s over.

ENOUGH WITH THESE HOKEY INTERVIEW QUESTIONS! THEY'RE REMINDING ME HOW DUMB I AM!!!!

siganigas...

>>49374886
Okay, so this one is interesting because the thing is technically valued at infinity IIRC
But, there’s a risk of blow-out
So, I think the best solution would be to do some kind of shit with the Kelly criterion
This would also make sense in the context of the last questions on the problem because Kelly criterion gives a percentage output that will be the percentage of your portfolio that you should allocate to the investment/gamble

>>49375304
It also depends on the number of tokens issued. Knowing Powell the value will quickly decrease because of the inflation all the printing is causing

>>49375280
I’m not guessing at it, it’s simple math. Taking a sample size of the slots will always lose to simply going for the winning slot. Reducing the sample size will increase your margin of error. You lose more overall by trying to determine which one is the winning machine.

In 14 days we have gone from 77 cases to nearly 1000.
Bow down to SIGA

>>49375304
no, you are not getting it
the expected value of the tickets is infinite, and you want to use as many of them as possible, because on average you win
the point of the question is to highlight a paradox:

Imagine a game where 90% of the time you double your bet, 10% of the time you lose your bet - this is a game that is strongly in your favor. You can still lose all of your money in this game - for example if you keep betting 100%, one day the 10% event will hit and you won't be able to keep playing.

The game from the puzzle above has some twists but is mostly similar, and the puzzle asks - how much of your money should you be willing to pay before it stops being good to play this game that is otherwise rigged in your favor?

I got a feeling that the market is going to gap up and move sideways early next week before it sells off leading into CPI release and closing the gap. Source: Hitler told me in my dreams

>>49375376
You are guessing at it since you chose all kinds of random numbers which you hoped to be advantageous to you instead of checking what the optimal numbers were.

This is the worst /smg/ thread ever.

>statistics memes general

>>49375195
>SIGA bros are we Indian now?
Always have been

>>49375370
Wiki has a pretty good explanation for the finite case:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St._Petersburg_paradox#Finite_St._Petersburg_lotteries

>>49375257
>>49375280
>Epsilon: 0.01 Avg score: 5154.057
>Epsilon: 0.02 Avg score: 5278.433
>Epsilon: 0.05 Avg score: 5371.494
>Epsilon: 0.1 Avg score: 5392.856
>Epsilon: 0.2 Avg score: 5373.051
>Epsilon: 0.3 Avg score: 5331.212
>Epsilon: 0.5 Avg score: 5237.621
>'Go to next when failed' Avg score: 5033.908
>Code: pastebin/cbpw3aSq
Your strategy is not that good, anon, even with 1% 50% 99% slot machines.

are there still /smg/ youtube videos?

>>49375472
Yes.

>>49375472
Rocker makes them late on Sunday instead of on Saturday where we can enjoy it without worrying about waging.

>>49375480
Comfy. Did Timmy ever come back or is he actually dead?

>>49375447
183. I forget how to solve it, but I've hear this one before and it's the only answer that makes sense.
50%

>>49375445
Far from the worst, and math nerds get to flex too it's not all just esoteric knowledge and gut feeling that makes up successful trading.

>>49375432
I’m not taking random numbers. Any advantage you gain through trying to sample and guess the winning slot is negated by your margin of error, the times you guessed the incorrect slot.

>>49375506
*Tinny, it's been awhile

Siga Chad's. We gonna buy village toilet paper next week

SIGA fags are so obnoxious I'm going to take great joy watching the suffering when this shit dumps

>>49375606
Based and poop pilled.

>>49375470
Your code is incorrect, you should be getting 5250 average for wins with the go next if fail strat. My guess is possibly you’re having it select and random from all 3 machines instead of the other 2 machines, that would lead to a flat distribution like that.

>>49373246
It’s 2/3, as everyone knows by now.

>>49375470
Huh. Apparently a simple "Start with 1000 random choices, then greedy" is even better:
>N: 1 Avg score: 4761.53
>N: 10 Avg score: 5113.041
>N: 100 Avg score: 5348.414
>N: 200 Avg score: 5384.914
>N: 500 Avg score: 5433.634
>N: 1000 Avg score: 5434.111
>N: 2000 Avg score: 5396.651

>xymaLDgK

>>49375651
I tried, and it gives the same results if the first two machines are the 55% and 50%.
The code is not incorrect. Your math is.

>>49373144
sex

>>49375447
2 is the two-coins prolem again
1: The probability of having any one birthday is 1/365 since we assume 365 days in a year. Then there are 365!/k! ways to choose a non-matching date for k people in a room. The overall probability is therefore 1-((1/365)^k)(365!/k!). This is >= 0.9995 when there are at least 72 (or is it 73?) people.

>>49375535
I think he’s dead bro, it’s been quite a while

>>49375672
Do you shrink the epsilon over time and what shrinkage factor do you use? This should improve results further.

I want to get to know some high IQ fixed income prop traders

gme is laughing at us again
>>49371001

>>49375534
Anon, you are wrong. Let it go. Or maybe google it or something if you want to actually learn something.

>>49375687
breddy gud anon but what’s the answer to number 2? I never saw it explicitly stated earlier itt

based on your reply with regard to number 1, you should be able to guess the correct answer since it’s multiple choice and you’re really close

we have been misled

>>49375651
I misread, but the point stands. I tried the following strategies:
- Select the next machine
- Select a random machine from all 3
- Select a random different machine
The score is always around 5030

>>49375702
I just did an `epsilon = starting_epsilon / round_number`. Exponential cool-off might be better, but DESU this is the max energy I'm willing to spend on this interview question tonight.

>>49373366
Checked. It’s 1/3. You solve this one the same as the other, there’s no sperging among people who understand how to model the problem. People who can’t math sperg about everything so no difference there either.

>>49375735
1/3 because of the 4 equipropable configurations, only 3 are valid.
It becomes 1/2 if the children are ordered instead of unordered.

lets stop talking about math and talk about SIGA

what do you think will be next week's ATH? 30? 40? let me know

>>49375742
I was trying to picture living with face blindness and imaging everyone walking around without faces and then realized that without faces we're basically just consciousness blobs of molecules running around. How weird is that man? Like what if trees or rocks are conscious but it doesn't "feel like it" to us because they don't have faces. Really makes you think. *tokes pipe*

Oh fuck sirs. Siga is now in India. 5 year old non fag has it sirs.

>>49375807
stop smoking weed anon it isn’t good for you

>>49373173
Stop

>>49373802
Kold for natural gas

>>49373342
Do the experiment described 1000 times. The times you see a red side up you don’t count, but when you see a blue side you go on to check if it was the all blue card or the blue-red card, and keep count how often it was one vs the other. After 1000 runs with blue sides up, you’ll see that about 666 of those times were the all-blue card, and about 333 times were the blue-red card. The first step to understanding the problem is to understand why you get this distribution. The second step is to understand why the result of doing this experiment 1000 times is in fact what the original problem is asking about.

>>49375447
>>49375783
>1/2 if the children are ordered instead of unordered.
An insidious version would be
>A family has two children, and their favorite child is a boy. What is the probability that both children are boys?

>>49375816
BASTARD BITCH HOW CAN I POOP NOW?

>>49373342
You forgot that there are two ways to pull the blue/blue card and get a blue face.

guys I just got a job interview with microsoft lined up the economy is fine

>>49375932
>working for a poojeet spyware company

>>49375470
>These solutions are mathematically similar to using the Kelly criterion or logarithmic utility. Conceptually, however, they are different because they emphasize the interpretation of expected value as an ensemble average and identify as a more relevant criterion the growth of the player's wealth as experienced over time.
I'm happy to be validated in my understanding that kelly criterion has some overlap, but I'm way more interested in what in the absolute fuck is going on over here:
>>49374886
>The Epsilon-greedy strat
The what???
>>49375748
>epsilon
>this interview question

I have no experience with even toy problems involving the bandit problem. Got any good books or links for the shit your posting about exploration optimization?
Also, wtf do you do? And, what did you study in college? Are you statistician, data analyst, or data scientist?
You sound like you should be making more money than me, but I did just get an offer for roughly $400k/yr

>>49375932
SIR
SIR DO NOT REDEEM THAT INTERVIEW

>>49373395
do people really live with backpacks and phone chargers all over the floor?

>>49375955
i need money because my uranium calls are bleeding despite the hyper bullish fundamentals

>>49375880
Excuse me, my fine young Indian fellow, but allow me to impart some wisdom from my civilized society, if you please.
It is commonly told in these parts that a man who poops, pees, but a man who pees does not poop.
No, I know it may sound ridiculous, even absurd, but the fact remains that you cannot explain that, sir.

>>49375962
I remember when I only made around 400k a year before starting my company

Buy the Nifty 50

>>49376002
I remember when I banged your whore of a mother and got herpes

>>49375996
SIR YOUR MOTHER BASTARD BITCH
INDIANS POOP, YOU WHITE MONKIES PEE, ONLY WE POOP
WE POOP IN THE RIVER SO WE CAN BATHE IN THE RIVER AS THE RIVER BLESSES US WITH OUR POOP

NOW THE MONKEY IS HERE BASTARD BITCH
ITS HERE
REDEEMING OUR LIVES
SIGA BASTARD BITCH BASTARD UR MOTHER BUY THE SIGA SAVE MY PEOPLE

>>49375932
I don't understand how microsoft can even be in business anymore after releasing such absolute dogshit for the last 20 years.

>>49376002
Hey Elon, can you buy Twitter and name the Jew?

>>49375962
>>The Epsilon-greedy strat
>The what???
>links plox
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multi-armed_bandit#Semi-uniform_strategies

I'm an underpaid SW Architect living in Eastern Europe. My wage is not even worth mentioning. Then again, I don't want to get cucked at a FAGMAN-style company or go anywhere near finance firms, so it's somewhat self-inflicted.

>>49376041
don't be jealous, you cant start your own company too
if you want tips about adding iot to factories I can help you with that, that's what my company does

is this bullish for Starbucks?

AMZN split takes effect monday, watch it drop like a rock. all that added liquidity from retailers to allow smart money to open new shorts. genius.

>>49376103
You sell industrial controls with some extra buzzwords.

CDC just said SIGA is now a level 2 travel hazard as of a few minutes ago.

coomers watch out for spots on your genitalia

CAN'T STAND SIGA NIGGAS

>>49373591
interpolate the 90% weight after you calculate the 95% weight
im too lazy to run the numbers

>>49376103
IOT shit is hella gay, at least on the consumer side. I don't want my car to tell my refrigerator that I just parked in the driveway.

How bad is CPI going to be, /smg/?

>>49375447
1) 365
If there are 366 people or more, there is 100% of two people with the same birthday (since there are more people than days in a year). At 365 people there’s still a very small chance that no two people share a birthday - there’s one person for every day with a perfect (unlikely) spread, so it should be just shy of 100%.
2) 1/3 (bb out of bb, bg, gb)

>>49376215
I need a list of companies that make commercial appliances with models small enough to be conceivable for use in the home, sans IoT faggotronics.

>>49376140
Hopefully this is a sign that we are moving one step closer to ending the twitter/woke nonesense. If a couple of companies do bad PR moves and just ignore this shit, then soon everyone will too once they see the majority really dont care about the over-hyper social media bullshit.

>Illegally close
>Its a private company, they can do what they want
>You reap what you sow

>>49376243
1- wrong
2- correct

>>49376140
Is this college Ave in Berkeley…
Fuck I hate this place and 99% of the people in it. I need to move.

Nobody wants to talk IVOL with me

>>49376264
You misunderstand: they promoted wokeness on bullshit social justice causes precisely so that they could get free license to do union busting and all kinds of other shady stuff. This will make them even more woke, not less.

>>49376222
I‘m short bonds. Going to add some longs around 3% on the 10 yr

>>49376270
>College Ave. store in downtown Ithaca, NY
READ NIGGA READ.
>>49376222
Better than expected, worse than forecast. They will find a way to fudge the numbers so it doesn't seem as catastrophic as it actually is.
What are some good shorts going into next week? NRDS, BYND, TSLA, AMZN?

>>49376274
OIL, SIGA or stop wasting /smg/ replies ( 1 Indian dollar per post)
You can always make your own threads.

>>49376306
I worked for the Starbucks next to the Fox theatre in the early 2000s. It was fun. Made drinks for Harrison Ford, Kevin Spacey, Brittany, Niel Patrick Harris, and many other degenerate Hollywooders. No one saw it as a fucking career. We just came there to make a few bucks and get drunk after. It was a kids job while you were getting your shit together. Now these faggots think they should get the same treatment as a fucking electrician to hit buttons on an espresso machine. What a joke.

I made this for you guys

>>49376530

>>49376530
Not bad anon. Not bad.

>>49376548

Guys tell it to me straight- are my July 15th 22.5 strike calls on SiGA gonna print?

How do I inverse ESG?

>>49373802
>gas higher then when oil was $150/bbl
How goes this work?

>>49376623
ORFN

>>49376416
The biggest problem I have with people not seeing restaurant work as a career is dumb kids aren't actually available to work during lunch hours outside of summer. You need dumb adults.

Turning 28 next week. I wish I could have sex one day. Unlikely at this point.

>>49376581
If they start locking down Monday maybe.

>>49376581
>buying meme calls
>in a bear market
>at the top of a dead cat bounce

>>49376581
You should be fine

>>49376661
sorry, anons, he’s not memeing
exit Monday. You were warned.

>>49376642
I've been thinking, what if there are major price discrepancies that still exist due to ESG? Theres been a secular trend to divest from "unsafe" industries, which can reverse due to a flight to quality in this inflationary environment

>>49376641
the gas tax scene is a little different now than it was a decade ago

>>49376581

You are taking an incredible gamble, and it's either going to pay off for you or you're going to lose everything.

>>49376623
Pick an ESG fund - short it or buy puts.
ESG, ESGV, ESGU, ESGE, ESGD
Or just pick shitty ESG companies since a number of these funds are propped up with big names that might take less of a hit then the smaller names.

bakers?

>order new clipper for my /diy/ hair cutting
>arrives
>plug in and set to
>whrrrrrr oh. ohohwrrrrrrrr oh
>intermittent power loss
>I swear to fucking god if this is a circuit board problem I am going to read Amazon the riot act
>pop the clam shell and have a look and see
>USA factory worker did a shit job soldering the ground lug
>fix
>problem fixed
Not pleased. Made in USA used to mean something, damnit. I expect this sort of thing from sweatshop factory chink children not USA manufacturing.

baking!!!!!!!!!

>>49376747
be my guest anon

>>49376761
hurry and BAKE THE FUCKING CAKE

>>49376761
do it already slave

>>49376779
i will figuratively never bake

>>49376754
>not expecting your products made in usa to be made in sweatshops by chick children

You do know sweatshops exist in America?

>>49376779
bruh it’s over, we all know it, just accept it now, no dreams, only sleep

>>49376797
DO I HAVE BUILD EVERYTHING MYSELF TO GET A QUALITY PRODUCT NOW? SHORT EVERYTHING IT'S ALL FUCKED.

>>49376875
>>49376875
>>49376875
>>49376875
>>49376875
>>49376875

>>49376645
Some days classes finish by 10. If they can't find workers, then maybe there shouldn't be 30 McDonalds and 30 subways in every city.

>>49376645
I was a waiter and bartender for quite a few years. I actually made decent money doing that. Around $3000/mo. That’s plenty for a loser adult. High end fags can make 6 figures.

>>49373481
I was asked this question in an interview once.
Put one red marble in one jar and all the other marbles in the other jar. Probability of picking red is just under 75%.

>>49373395
Done

>>49376268
> wrong
Yup you’re right, must be, 1 combo out of all possible combos for 365 days must be a far cry from 5 in 10,000.