/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>49347468
who is this umm... guy

Based anon.

His macroeconomic understanding is so well informed from reading Fed reports in a heterodox way.

More people need to understand how our macro works.

>>49347510
Filename

>>49347468
I've listened to 90% of his podcasts/interviews. He's based but my only problem is that he's way too geeky about history. Literally reads through central bank meeting minutes from the 1950s to gain insight on what might be happening today. It makes for good stories but doubt it gives much of an edge as you'd think. When asked about Bitcoin he says some stupid shit like "oh Bitcoin is nothing new, we had ledger money in the 1400s! We've seen this before! Bitcoin will be replaced by blockchain technology". Just flexes his history knowledge and gives no valuable insight beyond that.

>>49348208
No arguments that he has a bunch of weird takes, not just Bitcoin but he also says gold is "not feasible" as a standard when it seems like the East (Russia, China, India) are heading precisely in that direction. Definitely an idealist, that doesn't make him wrong about the things he focuses on like the Eurodollar. He's an oddball.

Sorry, I don't listen to nerds

Probably because hes wrong. His whole premise is that central banks are powerless moppets that also happen to be the most successful fakers in history. Also, he seems to unironically believe keynesian bullshit.

>>49347468
Explain his thesis about the Eurodollar system to us brainlets

Name?

>>49348569
Gold isn't feasible. It's not flexible enough as a global currency when funds need to be settled halfway across the world in less than 30 seconds.

>>49347468
Jeff Snider argued for transitory inflation (and still does iirc) when any idiot on /biz/ could tell you that inflation wasn't transitory and was due to the Fed printing 41% of all USD in existence during COVID.

>>49349037
I'm still trying to wrap my head around it. What I understand so far is that the only monetary system that matters now is the one that is run by and for international private banking, and the Fed and other central banks are subordinate to these and not the other way around (which is obviously the current commonly held belief). Like the other anon said it's very heterodox and sounds too crazy to be true at times but it actually starts to make sense when you look into his reasoning and evidence.
>>49349007
This is a misreading of his position. He's definitely not a Keynesian. I've heard him talk quite recently about how he is ideologically in favor of sound or hard money.
>>49349163
I have only been watching him since Feb so I may have missed that and I don't deny he says some clearly absurd things but it's because his basis is weird that everything else he says comes off as weird. In his worldview of the financial system, there probably is transitory inflation.
>>49349133
Jeff Snider.

>>49349660
> the only monetary system that matters now is the one that is run by and for international private banking
Is that system directed by them or does it operate more as a result of unconscious evolution where these banks as just following their own selfish best interest?

>>49349728
In Snider's reading, it's the latter.

>>49347468
>Eurodollar
Is he a Cyberpunk player or smth?

>>49349803
Kek, I lold when I noticed that too.

>>49349163
He is right about inflation. CPI will start to go down from here

>>49347468
he is absolutely terrible at conveying his thoughts and all his speech is rambling

that generally means that a person does not have a proper framework in his head and is jumping around between seemingly important pieces of information but overall makes little sense

that said the eurodollar market is probably one of the biggest determinants of global trade and global growth

>>49348208
>we had ledger money in the 1400s!

Roman Empire had ledger money before Christ was born. Nomen. Where the word nominal comes from.

If he is right, which he is, then everyone mainstream economist and financial journalist is incompetent and should be fired immediately.
But it doesn't stop there, politicans have to explain why the system is broken and how they have no plan to fix it.
Everyone gets thrown under the bus under the Jeff Snider framework, that's why he is so obscure.

>>49347468
>Eurodollar
Please no...

>>49349660
>>49349660
>international private banking, and the Fed and other central banks are subordinate to these and not the other way around
Reminder;
The Federal Reserve has always been, and will always be, a private venture by the Bank Of England.

>>49347468
never heard of him, but interested in the subject matter. post a link to his stuff, plz

>>49347468
>2020: there will be no inflation
>2021: there is inflation but it is transitory!

>>49349163
He never denied inflation, he’s denying the cause that people point to when they claim the Fed is money printing. Lower interest rates only allow speculative markets to inflate because the cost to borrow becomes so low for funds on the back end.

>>49351079
Look up Emil Kalinowski on YouTube. Pay more attention to the effects of Fed policies rather than their critiques on pop economic news stories. They have a couple of interviews with this guy Alfonso Pizzatoli or something and it’s a really good way to learn how things are intertwined in the majority of their discussions.

>>49351311
>speculative markets are an island
and when you cash out what happen?

>>49351372
Right, when large funds are forced to cash out because the risk doesn’t make sense for the interest they start paying on their leveraged positions then you get a market unwinding. I have a theory that for every 1% the Fed raises rates we will see 20% downside from where markets stabilize.

>>49351414
So you agree that the fed is in control, therefore disagreeing totally with snider

>>49351311
Before the financial crisis of 2008, a central bank would typically set policy by picking a target for the interest rate that banks charge each other for over-night loans of reserves—in the US, we would say that the Fed set a target for the federal funds rate.
Suppose the Fed target is 5 percent. If the economy is on an upswing and the commercial banks spot numerous profitable lending opportunities, they begin advancing more loans to new borrowers. Other things equal, more and more banks would find that they need extra reserves in order to satisfy their reserve requirements (or simply to bolster vault cash to accommodate the increased activity from more customer deposits).
If the Fed didn’t take any action, then the banks’ increased clamoring for reserves would push up the market interest rate on overnight loans of those reserves, perhaps to 6 percent. In other words, in an environment where the banks perceive new lending opportunities, their activity would tend to push the actual federal funds rate above the Fed’s desired target federal funds rate.
In order to maintain its target, the Fed would have no choice but to engage in open market operations, in which it would buy new assets and create more reserves, thus pushing the actual fed funds rate back down to the desired 5 percent target. This is the kind of mechanism that the authors of the Bank of England study (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/quarterly-bulletin/2014/q1/money-creation-in-the-modern-economy)) have in mind, in which the central bank passively responds to the banks’ “needs” for reserves.
However, this is largely a matter of semantics. It is still the case that the central bank controls the total quantity of base money, and that the commercial banks can’t create new reserves. The textbook description is still correct: When the fed funds rate is 6 percent and the Fed wants to push it down to 5 percent, the Fed must buy assets and inject new reserves into the system.

>>49351368
thanks, i’ll check it out. anyone autistic enough to read fed minutes from the 20th century must be kind of interesting

>>49350204
>absolutely terrible at conveying his thoughts and all his speech is rambling
Honestly you're spot on, I noticed this too. Still, I'm willing to give the guy a chance to see where he goes with it. The overarching thesis is too interesting to pass up because he is a bit incoherent and stumbles over himself.