/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>49310465

>>49310465
wow post-insider's must have a really tough time when they lose all their insider contacts

>>49310465

>>49310465

We already hit that bottom.

>>49310511
That's literally what he's saying you dummy dum

>>49310482
Kek

there will be people throwing barrels of btc away for a loaf of bread

>>49310465
>Nigger crypto maxi doesn't understand macro factors and the Fed monetary policy that is purposely causing a recession
Basically what I expect from crypto retards, he probably unironically thinks TA works too.

Who?

>>49310614
You honestly think Hayes doesn't understand macro and the Fed monetary policy? lol

>>49310678
He very obviously doesn't, QT isn't priced in and rates are only priced in to around 2% right now. The rates will be significantly higher by 2023, the NASDAQ is going down to like 5000. If you think BTC will hold 20k with a 5k NASDAQ you're retarded.

>>49310614
>He doesn't know that Hayes is an insider now
Keklmao

>>49310699
>the world revolves around american markets

>>49310711
The world revolves around America

>>49310711
Yes.

>>49310711
I wish it didn't, but it does. When the stock market open in NY, BTC usually dumps with it.

>>49310699
have you even read what he wrote?

>>49310751
Yes, he’s been insisting for months now that the fed is going to reverse course because of political pressure and there is no indication that’s going to happen. The fed is going to squeeze the life out of markets until something breaks, whether Biden and /pol/cels care or not

>>49310699
Nasdaq won’t matter. This is A SEPERATE economic system. That’s the overall macro factor. Elon knows this, he knows people must be called back to the virtual. Summer bull run is coming. All the other economic factors are bullshit with fiat money and don’t matter.

>>49310711
Crypto does revolves around America after China banned it

>>49310825
You're a retarded BTC maxi possibly libertarian or /pol/tard.
>>49310805
Ya that's the standard permabull dumbfuck thesis, it's borderline schizo levels of delusion at this point. They think the fed will protect the stock market over the dollar.

bitcoin will go sub 3k and the whole market will decouple from that shitcoin

ETH will become king. its very apparent especially when you open up etherscan and see how many whales have been buying up ETH like crazy. BitDAO alone has over 200k ETH in their treasury and are buying on average around 380 ETH daily

>>49310805
he said it could happen after spx hits 3000 and nasdaq hits 10000, so we still have another massive drawdown to look forward to

it's strange he called 20k btc only 2 weeks ago and now seems to be walking back on that prediction, stating 25k is a likely bottom

if ndx hits 10k, btc hitting 20k(or lower) seems pretty logical

>>49311046
BTC has moved sideways for 3 weeks since hitting 25k. It makes sense he would change his opinion on whether or not we've bottomed.

>>49310465
>Woe is the plebe that rents — NGMI.

HOLY BASED

>>49310465
Why is Ray Allen on biz?

>>49310465
Thanks Arthur

>>49310523
He literally said in his last article he is buying BTC at $20K. So which is it? Why did he abandon his original thesis?

>>49311526
20k but any one that made chad money this bullrun has enough to begin to DCA at this level.

The liquidation level for my entire net worth is at $24,000. Will I be safe?

>>49311526
psyops

Back when it was above 40k he posted his 28k prediction and everyone laughed. Don't bet against Arthur

>>49310825
>my financial derivative that does not even work as a store of value against inflation, provably, is an entirely separate economic system

>>49312114
>Don't bet against Arthur
Yup. I'm slowly learning that. I laughed too at 43K, counting my on-screen money. His experience is obviously unique, being waaaaaay more than the average crypto writer/analyst.

>>49310465
finna catch the knife

>>49310614
Wouldn't this essentially be the doombull thesis tho? Every crash/recession requires far more money printing and intervention than the last one. I absolutely understand that the Fed wants to kneecap equities, but if the credit market cracks, the Fed will 100% print to save it.

>>49311097
huh? if you have a prediction then what happens over a few weeks doesn't matter, he is just a retard with no actual conviction, may as well be a /biz/ shitposter.

200 Week SMA is $22k so there's some basic TA of what the bottom will be, it's that fucking simple but no-one seems to get it.

>>49310711
Yes shitskin 3rd worlder

>>49310678
dude it's a nigger

>>49312059
certainly not. if you put more than 1% of your networth in risk of liquidation in the most volatile market on the planet you deserve your fate

>>49310614
nice bait mate

>>49312840
Kys newfag

>>49312840
Arthur is le based black man and you are an illiterate low iq inbred

>>49314861
but i still don't get it
2 weeks ago he said he would only be buying BTC at $20k, now this week he says he is 'more confident' that $25k-$27k is the bottom.
what changed? he doesn't explain what changed at all and is making it sound like he always predicted that as the bottom.
it is misleading and would make anyone reading his stuff very sceptical of his insights.

>>49310465
$8-12 k is the bottom

>>49314911
>what changed?
3 weeks passed
inflation numbers from EU states published
mass-panic and capitulation completed

>>49310465
I've been feeling 23k for while now. Below that I'm not sure but it hit 25k and bounced just like qqq dropped and bounced. Good chance we slide down again. That's why I didn't buy this bull trap to 31k. So fake looking. We need a full capitulation.

>>49310711
When you wrote this comment did you think you were being clever?

>>49314951
>mass-panic and capitulation completed
kek where? right, nowhere!
captcha: XGAGX

>>49315517
i agree. the most obvious titanium support level throughout the entire bitcoin history has been the 200 week moving average, which is currently just over $22k and rising - will be around $24k later this year which is when we should bottom out. It's all lining up for around that mark to be the bottom.

honestly at this point, I've started accumulating BTC because given the diminished bull run we COULD see higher lows during a bear. There's always the possibility of a black swan but yeah if not i'm thinking $24k will be the bottom.

So i don't totally disagree with Hayes but just weird that he changed his entire thesis because of a few decent weeks in the macro economic world or whatever.

>>49310614
hayes' newsletter has one of the best macro in the entire finance industry unironically

>>49310614
hayes' newsletter has unironically the best macro takes in the entire finance industry

>>49315572
grats on being wise enough to accumulate down here. most people dont realize greed goes both ways

>>49315653
huge buy signals appearing everywhere honestly
every retard crypto youtuber is saying they will buy at $20k
the FUD here talking about a $10k bitcoin is rampant
i agree with Hayes where he also starts to talk about normalfags being smug about avoiding crypto - these are all huge bottom indicators.
most alts are already 90% down as well.
honestly it seems foolish to not accumulate here, the EXACT same way it would have been foolish to not start taking profits at $60k when every man and his dog was calling for a $100k BTC.

>>49310465
Hayes keeps changing his takes over the last few months. He should make a prediction and stick to it for the coming year.
I really doubt 28k was the bottom and I think we're in a bulltrap right now.
In any case I slurped a bit because I can always be wrong but I don't intend to buy before the end of shemitah. At this point the market will either have crashe or reached an equilibrium.

>>49310805
>until something breaks
i concur with these every recent fed hiking cycle ended with something seriously breaking in the market we barely even seen that
inflation is still fucked especially in the eurozone and they are about to unleash a lot of tightening while the us equities are still above pre covid levels
we are going to see some stock market madness soon enough and there is zero chance btc can hold out alone, people have been saying 20k is unbreakable support since forever because all of btc history supports that, but all of btc history was in the macro bull, from my perspective the people defending 20k are the biggest delusional bunch out there

now they are correct in that the resulting qe will be massive and when the fed pivots its time to go really all all in on crypto, but timing can mean fortunes
just look at late 2018 that was a 50% drop on a low market, through very strong support and the stock market barely puked back then, what do you think will happen to crypto if we see another 2001 or 2008

that said if you start monthly dca's here thats not a bad strategy

I love this lil nigga like you wouldn't believe

>>49316212
global stock markets went down like 30-40% over like 2 weeks in march 2020 anon, it was cataclysmic. not sure what you mean that they barely puked. the fact BTC only dropped 50% was actually pretty bullish.

>>49316234
i said late 2018 the taper tantrum, the coof drop was max black swan territory thats not applicable here
and btc dropped about 70% during the coof anon that was pretty bad

also who here thinks based arthur is talking about link when he says he is accumulating a specific alt
he said the reason he believed in eth was that the value of the dapps being build was greater than the token mc, that reminds you of anything in todays market

Hayes is nigger aristocracy, top 0.01% of negroes

>>49310699
The media sold this le inflation le -70% crash narrative very well

>>49315607
> hayes' newsletter has unironically the best macro takes in the entire finance industry

>>49310825
>This is a SEPARATE econkmic system
Absolutely and utterly delusional

>>49310614
uhhhh …are you saying you don’t listen to economic takes from retarded niggers? /biz/ poors seem to like the pavement ape for some reason

>>49311097
>BTC has moved sideways for 3 weeks since hitting 25k. It makes sense he would change his opinion on whether or not we've bottomed.

In his last article he thought 20k bottom would come by EoY or so; a few weeks of pause wouldn't change that.

It's fine to change a prediction but I'm not clear from reading this what has caused him to.

And it's worth remembering that you don't have to be right in predictions to make money in this game. You just have to react correctly to what does actually happen, when it does.

Hayes is /ournigger/

>>49316370
Do you not have any opinion than copy-pasting other's posts & slapping a shitty picture

I fucking hate soijack poster. fucking npc

>>49315707
It's actually a lot more stupid if you make long term predictions because how quickly things can change.

>>49316234
>the fact BTC only dropped 50% was actually pretty bullish.
only because arthur turned the bitmex liquidation engine off, it was going to 0

>>49316524
>but I'm not clear from reading this what has caused him to.
My understanding is that equities were hit too hard and he doesn't believe the Fed can resist the political pressure to take the foot off the gas

after digesting the whole thing a few observations
on the macro part
he is wrong where he explains how the negative wealth effect lowers food and fuel inflation, it is well known that rich people don't materially consume more of these than wagies
what the intended effect here is, is that the crushing of financial assets will break bad companies and lead to mass lay offs and severly reduced negotiating power of the wagies, this then in turn will lead to lower inflation as the wagies cant afford a whole lot anymore
the uniparty doesnt care about votes, thinking that they change big economic policy on the midterms when they have dominion in their pocket is foolish
they are about their own bottomline and that is production going smoothly with now underpaid wagies
also the eu is cracking at the seems the part he says the eu is doing well is flat out wrong
without a russian deal that capitulates to almost everything the euro zone is done for, either southern countries go back to the medieval ages or the euro hyperinflates to a german revolt
so say hi to trading the mark/btc or gulde/btc pairs
lol at the zeihan link, he is not wrong but very apocalyptic about financial valuations esp crypto

as to the core of this thesis
excluding the luna collapse brief interlude, right now we are square back to the almost 1 ndx correlation so thats still a thing
this entire cycle all the glassnode metrics were blown out
and the rumours floating around make it a very good possibility that the tgf 80k btc were never actually sold
he also says he believes spy below 3000 is coming, thinking that btc holds 20k when spy goes below 3k is laughable

i will fully concur with his last line tho
>The Fed will not be coy about its about-face
when its public you go all in with every little piece of fiat you can conjure up and it will be public, we might be up 30% from the bottom by then but that point could still be 50% lower then todays price

>>49316637
like what was only 12 mil left in the book before we hit literal zero and price was liquidating faster then btc could be moved on exchange
an interesting clash between tradfi and crypto due to the built in time constraints of the chain and instant liquidation on derivatives

personally i would have preferred to go to zero part, i could have accumulated so much more then

>>49316702
>when its public you go all in with every little piece of fiat you can conjure up and it will be public, we might be up 30% from the bottom by then but that point could still be 50% lower then todays price
this is the reason why I've been sitting in cash for the last 6 months, I didn't have enough dry powder to slurp the corona crash

>>49316723
watching bitmex during the march 2020 crash was kino, along with watching the LINKUSDT order book get wiped out on binance

>>49316702
>he is wrong where he explains how the negative wealth effect lowers food and fuel inflation, it is well known that rich people don't materially consume more of these than wagies
he never said it was his belief, he said it was the fed policy, so it's their belief

>>49315707
>and stick to it for the coming year
What? I take it you’ve never heard the famous wall street term ”adapt or die”

>>49316806
You have to understand that most /biz/tards are tribalistic children who literally have to "choose a side" being a bobo or a mumu and die while defending your side/belief no matter what is a happening.

Meanwhile any worthwhile trader can flip his bias in an instant if he sees elements for it

>>49310465
>and I base this on absolutely nothing.

>>49316927
yes and Hayes comes across as a capricious trader to be honest
i watched an interview he gave in 2018 where he said BTC was going to $50k. when they asked him why he said
"i don't know. volatility is good. i don't really care if bitcoin goes up or down i make money if people trade".

>>49316783
>The Fed believes that by destroying demand through the negative wealth effect, it can materially slow the rise of fuel and food prices.
>The theory is that rich people
the first line is correct the fed does believe the use of the negative wealth effect
the second line and the subsequent paragraph are hayes opinion and are incorrect according to my previously made point
its not because someone calls it the theory that its agreed upon consensus rather than his personal interpretation of the facts
does that clear it up anon

>>49316584

>>49311097
Whatever be the case with BTC, it's always great to still have other sources of income in one's arsenal.
I am currently looking to a few interesting DeFi protocols. The likes of Apeswap, moonriver and Equilibrium DeFi. Getting to hold the tokens of these ones would be my next possible appointment.

>>49310465
remeber when he said eth was a double digit shitcoin in 2018? he's a scammer.

>>49310465
idk this last piece seemed like a pleb wrote it desu
his justifications for a btc bottom is something you'd find on /biz/ or crypto twitter
not convinced (even though I love arthur)

>>49310465
Yes anon, in 2 more years of bear market we will only dump 4k more.

>>49316584
>Do you not have any opinion than copy-pasting other's posts & slapping a shitty picture
>I fucking hate soijack poster. fucking npc

>>49319883
he wasn't wrong

>>49312497
Printer will go BRRRR again before election

Here's what he actually said, paraphrased:

>Thinks the bottom is close, but it all depends on what the Fed does and it would be idiotic to try to catch the knife before the Fed has given a clear signal that they will pivot away from QT and re-initiate QE

>>49310465
Did he actually say that or are you just making up stuff?
Link the quote

>>49320661
lazy retard
https://cryptohayes.medium.com/shut-it-down-15d230b28089

>>49316277
>he said the reason he believed in eth was that the value of the dapps being build was greater than the token mc, that reminds you of anything in todays market
assuming you mean link:
an issue there is if LINK secures let's say 10 Trillion in value, and ETH itself only has a marketcap of 2 Trillion, then instead of trying to attack LINK it'd be possible to target their token layer by attacking ETH and causing disruptions there
ideally you'd want the underlying chain to at least have comparable marketcaps to reduce attack vectors

>>49316524
>It's fine to change a prediction but I'm not clear from reading this what has caused him to.
could be that huge puke from LUNA imploding and their 80,000 bitcoin allegedly being marketsold and that not cratering the price down to just 15k, and that 25k held might be a "well if that doesn't crush it maybe it has more legs than i think"

he's confident. act on it. /s

Lying stinky nigger.

>>49320929
Go back

Wtf I love bitcoin now

sooo what's the bottom for June?

>>49310959
based

>>49310711
Crypto market does.

>>49319883
I laughed at him and he was right at the end

The last two bottoms have come almost exactly a year after ATH. Why would this one only come five months after?

>>49325947
November high was fake

>>49310574
true. Most of us were never meant to make it

>>49310699
>I know exactly what's going to happen and so does everyone else its so obvious
>it's not priced in tho

>>49310711
You're such a fucking retard.

>>49325981
Fair enough, but you can also argue that the bullruns start 6 months after halving and continue for a year, putting tops at 1.5 years after halving, which has been consistent for the last two cycles making this last top legit and capitulation around this Nov/Dec.
Idk, feels like a bulltrap to me

>>49310507
Context please

>>49326102
when he ran bitmex he traded against his customers. CZ is doing the same on binance but is smart enough not to get caught like this.

>>49326102
>Context please
https://medium.com/@mattcollburner/bitmex-insiders-caught-in-a-web-of-lies-6d9b90baa693

you thought something was on the up and up? and you weren't getting fucked in both directions?

>>49325947
The top was May retard, nov was a double top factorin M2