/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>49270267
Because its not over

>>49270267
Lol how much did you lose?

>>49270267
Your pic answers your question. It's a curve. BTC's log curve is curved. It's not a straight line upwrds. Also it wasn't as weak as some retards want to paint it as being, it went from 4k to 69k.

>>49270390

Honestly think it's a truncated bear market. Peaked in Nov 2021 and bear started shortly thereafter, meaning we bottom before end of 2022 (if not already), and chop sideways/slow melt up in 2023 before bull market's back on in 2024. Accumulate.

>>49270267

>>49270390
A x3.5 is indeed weak compared to 2017 bull run…

>>49270267
why is it easier to move a stone than a mountain?

>>49270445
So once BTC becomes a stable coin in the next few bull runs then altseason will basically be extinct?

>>49270267
you need to examine the low to high ratio in the cycles anon

>examing it from top to top
gains can obviously be much higher than 3.5x in this last bull run if you're not buying the top of the last run. bitcoin still did quite nicely last bull run if you were buying in the bear market.

but yeah there's always diminishing returns in large marketcap assets that people buy up over years. you're not going to get any 1000x's on microsoft stock any time soon either. if something has roughly a $10 billion market cap, adding $1 billion will pump it 10%. but if something has around $100 billion marketcap, $1 billion will only add around 1%. same shit with bitcoin, requires much more buying pressure to move the market today than it did 5-10 years ago.

>>49270312
fpbp

Walk into the nearest Wal-Mart and look around. How many people there are putting their entire paycheck straight to bitcoin? ZERO. Probably not even you because you're an idiot too. Bitcoin is a GUARANTEED 2x in less than four years with no custodial risk. Likely much more than 2x when people catch on to what's happening. And people still don't IMMEDIATELY transfer out of US dollars? And financial advisors recommend 5% allocation? Don't overthink this. Bitcoin has survived for too long already to fail after the USD doubles in supply overnight again. You can't get higher returns unless you're a highly skilled drug lord. And even then you should take profits in bitcoin.

The only NFT project I'm using right now is Streeth. Because:

>Street Art NFTs by world recognized street artists.
>Huge Collaborations such as: Orcas VC, Shoeuzi, Kryptomon
>Doxxed KYC Team
>Audit by CoinScope

Corona and Ukraine shit didn’t help this bull run either

>>49271088
rona initiated the bull run with helicopter money, ukraine created a one in a generation opportunity on the usd/rub pair

It's only natural, next run will be even more pathetic. When adjusted for inflation this run was worse than people realise.

>>49271476
>When adjusted for inflation
the 69k peak would have been 65k in 2018, when adjusted for inflation.

>>49270443
Just because the bullmarket was truncated it doesn't mean the bearmarket will be as well...

>>49271566
That's exactly what it would mean you absolute mong. pic related.
The truth, however, is >>49270267

>>49270983
>Bitcoin has survived for too long already to fail
Is that so?

>>49270545
No there will only be alt-season.

>>49270267
>>49270312
screncap

>>49271564

your math is a little off there buddy.

>>49270267
>and the next cycle has even lower returns
thats an assumption and all underlying fundamentals of adoption show the opposite from happening
so yes either btc dies and all its usecases built on it start showing a death spiral soon too
or this run was heavy on black swans and thus suppressed from its expected averages
invest according to your beliefs anon

>>49271564
in a way, without this money printing FUD of 2020 with covid "crisis", there would have been no crypto bull run in 2020-2021.

>>49271938
duh, we have been in an inflationary cycle since 2008 with some short pauses
talking about asset inflation, not necessarily CPI

The bullrun was epic, covid gave a sweet entry too

>>49270267
Elon Musk. Him explicitly. Fucker got people who should have been buying bitcoin buying do.gcoin scams. Then NFT scams hit and it was basically over.

I've still got hope for next cycle, but after that I expect regulatory infrastructure to have been implemented and people will switch to monero to avoid paying taxes. THAT will mark the death of bitcoin.

>>49272251
>paying taxes
im not actually bothered about that so long as they're reasonable. you'd want to draw down the account to an extent anyway. in the uk, that 0% up to £13k and something like 10% up to £37k a year. i can live with 10% desu

>>49272525
It'll be a bit more than just paying taxes. Mandatory KYC/AML. Bitcoins "frozen" if you can't prove you bought them "legally". And maybe even then frozen just because you kept them in your own wallet instead of on exchange. Retroactive freezing of your bitcoin because you sold some and then those satoshis wound up in a "criminal's" wallet, so now you're retroactively guilty by association. KYC data getting leaked so now your pseudonymous wallet is tied to your real world identity and activists can see who donated to "the wrong party" and now you've got lunatics trying to get you fired from your job and sending hate mail to your family.

Compared to monero, which you can atomic swap into, bitcoin is just headaches. It's basically inevitable that bitcoin will be replaced and the best option for replacement is monero. Most of the darknet has already made the switch and they're a leading indicator in crypto.

heat death of the cryptoverse

>>49272631
i have a family member who works in transactional monitoring and you may be surprised by how many accounts there are of jeets blatantly money laundering large amounts, hundreds of thousands in months, through accounts via crypto exchanges (they'll be using it to collect rent, pay wages to illegal aliens etc). what'll happen is they'll just refuse to accept any money that's originated from chains like monero

>>49270267
we are back , going to pump soon,my blockbank bag is looking awesome

>>49270267
If this is the high for this cycle, and the next cycle has even higher returns, Bitcoin as we know it is fine.


Remember: it can either go up or down.

>>49270267
cuz ur gay

>>49270312
>>49270267

>>49270445
This chart is retarded because for some reason it considers mid 2010 (when Bitcoin began trading) to 2011 as it's own "cycle", in which case it should consider 2019 as its own cycle since it also had a massive mini-bubble and blow off top

But that's not convenient for a literal straight line prediction model

>>49270545
no, if anything we might just see alts decouple and do their own thing depending on their use cases and demand, granted most alts have no usecase or demand so who knows what will happen to those

>>49272525
I owe £20k in taxes for swaps that would have been eligible for zero or long term capital gains tax in any other country. All my paycheck goes to HMRC. Assets have since list over 300k in value and nothing cashed out. It's fun.

>>49270443
>Accumulate
Which coins are you accumulating anon?
I already hold 50 ETH (1 validator) + pic related in alts.

I cashed out about $400k in stables (got that shit out of celsius) and I make $200k base + $80k other stuff from my job.

Looking for any anons opinions on what to do from here. I missed rotating into real estate because I don't really want to live in USA. Also missed roating into oil.

I will likely not be high risk with about $300k out of the $400k in stables. That's my freedom stack

>>49270267
Longer cycle (we're still in it) and doggy shitcoins diluted the amount flowing into BTC.

Now that retail idiots got REKT on shitcoins, the KING can resume.

>>49274824
>Now that retail idiots got REKT on shitcoins, the KING can resume.
The bearish thesis would be that general retail would be necessary for "the king to resume", but they're out on crypto after getting burnt on dog coins and NFTs

>>49274824
I feel the stuntedness or elongation (#elongate) of this cycle has more to do with the stunts Elon pulled last year about dogecoin and Bitcoin esg combined with talks of higher rates from the Fed at the end of the year rather than anything else
Last year was a rather unique time for Bitcoin, just like any cycle

>>49274864
No, retail can easily be sucked in again every time
They were "burnt out on ICOs" in 2018, and "burnt out on Bitcoin" in 2014
As soon as normies smell free money they are back in, that's just how it works

Recall that there we're basically no institutional investors in 2017 and retail still held the price up to $20k
With the experience of this cycle, I'd say that retail adoption alone can hold the Bitcoin price up to about $50-60k, but what we really need now for sustained growth is institutions
And while it used to be laughable that institutions would hold crypto, now they advertise it on the fucking television to boomers
Tick tock new block

Stop measuring it top to top, it's irrelevant. What matters isbthe most recent local low, which was 3.4k ish in the covid crash. Btc went from that to 66k, which is roughly 20x which is roughly what you'd expect.

>>49275008
>As soon as normies smell free money they are back in, that's just how it works
I get that part. I'm just not sure how long their short memory is. i.e. what's their refractory period? 2018 took years to recover from and is where I did my accumulation of 200 ETH.

I know the game is to basically get a "free money" chart in front of enough retards and have them buy in. You think they're primed to go this year?

>>49274864
Those retards will be back in September when we consolidate and start consistently going up again.
Remember, retail cattle always buys high, NOT right now when they should be.

I can't imagine the macro environment being any worse, as we have an actual high intensity war in Europe, materials and food shortages, Chinks being retarded about COVID, Fed Reserve FUD (being priced in now) etc.
Short of a nuclear war, the macro environment can only improve, and you know the Democraps are going to try to butter up the public before the midterms.

>>49275008
>No, retail can easily be sucked in again every time
>They were "burnt out on ICOs" in 2018, and "burnt out on Bitcoin" in 2014
>As soon as normies smell free money they are back in, that's just how it works

Precisely.

>>49275121
>the macro environment can only improve
you are going to be in for a surprise, it can get a whole lot worse still
but yes at the end of this the markets will puke and there will be a new qe that starts a new bull

>>49275121
>I can't imagine the macro environment being any worse
It's bad, but I could imagine worse, easily.
non-isolated layoffs would be one example, right?

>>49270267
There are no more suckers

>>49275245
>there will be a new qe that starts a new bull

Don't need QE to start a Bitcoin bull.

>>49271853
>>49270312
sorry guys. it's over. crypto has failed to provide any utility to humanity the 4th straight halving cycle. Maybe next cycle you can develop something useful that people can use to increase their productivity?

>>49270312
yes it is lmao

>>49270267
It's only natural to expect it to level out. Obviously 20x gains can't happen every cycle: that would be pure lunacy.

>>49275633
>A global, trusted store of value for the world that captures the universal measures of cost which are time and energy
>Crypto has failed

You shitcoiners will never learn. Yes, your shitcoins have failed catastrophically. The onyl thing shitcoins have done is let conniving developers to con retards out of their Satoshis in exchange for centralized, printed vaporware scams, such as LINK.

All fucking shitcoiners must fucking hang.

>>49270312
Truth from the Lord

>>49274478
Dump SNX and MIR for GNS
Don't know why UNI on top.
LINK unironically #1
Keep MKR, AVAX, BTC
Dump the rest imo

>>49276717
>dog paw tattoo
you just know

>>49276717
GET THAT NIGGER BITCH OFF THE BOARD

>>49277111
No one witness this miraculous dub trips?

BTC $100k Nov 2022

>>49275065
How did you accumulate 200 ETH and not look at the market cycles/halvening cycles? Normies refractory period is unironically 2 weeks to forget a major events and 4 years it literally never happened there was some schizo thread from some supposed member of the elite where they called these 4 year periods “business cycles” because lemmings forget so easy from those time periods (think college/election cycles). They already forgot about corona and the buffalo shooting lol they will fomo in when they are told. Honesty biz should work on getting that free money chart in front of more of their faces to further pump the market instead of just being fags that fud non stop.

>>49270267
bruh one half of the y axis is 1 to 10k and the other 10 to 100k. are you fucking retards serious?

>>49270267
Because the entire financial system collapsed right in the middle of it and the entire market was propped up by institutions which treat Bitcoin like a tech stock.

>>49274478
Strictly BTC sir. Already have my ETH make it stack, but can never have enough corn, especially at these discounted prices. Yes, some alts MIGHT outperform over time, but after the LUNA debacle, I'm perfectly content stacking more sats more than ever vs risking it all in some shitcoin.

Also, we didn't have this last cycle, but when you keep your crypto on a platform like BlockFi for ex, you can earn passive yield on your crypto without selling it. No I'm not talking about crypto-collateralized loans, I mean flex interest account. Hold 1 BTC, 32 ETH, random shitcoins, etc. just 'flex interest' to earn all interest in USDC/GUSD whatever stable you want. That way you always maintain your position without risk of liquidation via loan or selling and triggering cap gains. Truly never selling, only accumulating.

Haha, u're wasting your cash on the trash and then cry on 4ch on every topic. Be smarter, kids, check SparkWorld

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