/biz/ - Business & Finance

It is a speculative bubble.

Here is the end of 2013 crash as a point of reference

BTC jan-dec 2015 : 310 -> 430 (138%)
BTC jan nov 2017 : 952 -> 7800 (920%)

>>4445600
I'm very long - bought 2013, not sold since.

While there is undoubtedly speculation going on, I don't believe BTC is in a general bubble. I would characterise it more like people suddenly discovering art. Like, Holy Shit - there's all these Rembrandts and Picassos, Mona Lisa and Haywains and suddenly everyone wants an original. The price will go from nothing to something in a very volatile way until everyone who wants some, has some.

I believe we have barely started the "people suddenly discovering" phase. There'll be crashes again as there have been before (bitfinex/tethers is starting to smell like mtgox) but ultimately BTC won't go to zero for the same reason Art won't go to zero.

I feel like a combination of regulations and scrutiny will kill some exchanges/shit-tokens and will cause a crash, but that after that we’re going supernova.

I genuinely believe governments should try and embrace bitcoin, I mean its would eliminate tax avoidance completely, the blockchain is there for all to see. I suspect many of the big mining pools are heavily government backed already.

>>4445711
Interesting.

If you think that BTC is a long term thing but that there are still going to be crashes, why don't you sell now and buy agin when it' low?

>>4445753
finex is going to gox

>>4445753
Regulation and scrutiny will bring in real money. Hedge funds, banks... institutional money is what creates a bubble, and they haven't even started yet. Shutting down unregulated exchange will legitimize crypto as more than just drug and pedo money. The bubble will pop, but we have a long way to go

>>4445600
It is a bubble without a doubt. suddenly everyone thinks that He will drive a lambo next year, shitcoins without a working product get millions of funding. people invest thousands in coins and they dont even know the function of them.

I dont care but dont be so naive to think that we will always See increasing prices.

>>4445600
Im a bitcoin oldfag. I entered the market at 5€/btc. Pic related is how I read the market right now.
Bitcoin is going to have a big correction as soon as we reach 9990 usd but that will be the beginning of a gigantic bear trap that will push btc over 60k. And that will be the top of the bubble.

You know we're not at the top, because you are afraid. When we're near the top what you think is that there's going to be a flippening. This goes for every coin but in the case of the bitcoin bubble its betqeen the usd and btc. I mean, at the top of the bubble you will be thinking that we're about to switch to a bitcoin standard (because that phase is the "New paradigm" phase.

The 2013 bubble bursted and dropped from 240 usd to 75 usd only to rise to 1250 usd. This burst is going to be similar.

>>4445763
A very good question.

Let me frame it differently: I bought in with $2700, I'm sitting now on $300,000 having only every bought, never sold in 4yrs. I am the archetypel hodler. This board has somewhat more traders who've bought in low and traded their way to similar levels over much shorter timeframes. That's great, and I am jelly - though not as jelly as those who bought and hodled before 2013. However the vast, vast majority of anons here have put in a couple hundred or a couple thousand and have gone up 2x, 3x or 4x or have - almost as likely - gone DOWN to 1/2x, 1/3x, 1/4x. They've really not moved.

So back to your question: why not cash out if a crash is coming? Lurking here brings me to understand that doing nothing keeps me in the top 10% of hodlers, even through the crashes. Cashing out, riding out the crash and buying back in at the bottom would put me in the top 1% of those holding BTC. Getting any part of this wrong will put me in the bottom 90% of anons.

I have a target of $2 million I'd like to reach within 10 years. I'm not really interested in reaching $3m, or $20m, or $200m. $2m basically totally changes how I live the rest of my life. On the other hand, $1m doesn't (I'd still have to wageslave.)

So it comes down to risk: what is the value to me of reaching $2m in 1 year - the cash out/buy in model? Certainly not worth the risk of ending up in the bottom 90%. By the same token, would my holdings be worth $2m in 10 years if I do nothing? I think they would.

Your final answer then: selling now and buying again when low is too risky.

I hope this makes sense!

You guys wouldn't know a bubble if you saw one right in front of you

>>4445943
delusional.

where should all the New money be coming from? bitcoin definately is mainstream. my parents and my grandmother know bitcoin.

>>4446051
about half of the population knows about bitcoin. But how many have invested? 1% of those?
How long did you know about crypto before you invested? I knew, and forgot about it for 3 years.
Not everyone who first learns of crypto immediately buys.

>>4446085
>about half of the population knows about bitcoin. But how many have invested? 1% of those?
This mostly. I've heard some colleagues and friends talk about crypto, but then I found out they're investing at most a few hundred bucks.

There are 18.8m BTC wallets as of right now, with many users having more than 1 wallet. So I would not consider BTC truly mainstream with ~9m people who ever held any.

>>4446127
>>4446100
>>4446085

the vast majority has zero interest in bitcoins or alt coins.

>>4446163
Is it any different with stocks? Normies gonna normie.

>>4446247
More than 50% of Americans own stocks. The fact that probably less than 1% of Americans own crypto makes me very optimistic about potential for future gains.

>>4446345
no they fucking don't lmao. maybe 5-10% is accurate but 50%? in your dreams

>>4446345
50%? Where did you get that figure?

>>4446364
I don't understand why you're pulling numbers out of your ass when this is public knowledge.

>>4446437
well, >50% of adults to be more specific.
https://www.npr.org/2017/03/01/517975766/while-trump-touts-stock-market-many-americans-left-out-of-the-conversation

>>4446442
give me a source then you faggot
stocks are not bought by normies

>>4446458
I believe it. Almost everyone I know has some skin in the game.

>>4446458
Seems to come from this. The question asked doesn't match the statement "More than 50% of Americans own stocks" as it includes Americans who '''""own stocks"""" through owning other vehicles

>>4446482
Sure they are. He just posted the article. It's actually 52 percent. You must just hang around with your poorfag buddies.

>>4445600
The normies came, this is what we all waited for OP

>>4445711
>I believe we have barely started the "people suddenly discovering" phase.

Google searches for Bitcoin are almost at the same level as searches for the name of the US president.

>>4446656
Source? I think you're full of shit. There are way too many libs obsessed with Trump.

>>4446699
they dont need to fucking search

>>4446085
half the population of fucking what? the world? youre insane

If bitfinex implodes, expect a big drop.

>>4445600
right now cryptocurrencies are gaining traction.
As long as we don't grow too fast, so that it seems unreal, or crash due to scams (e.g. mt gox) or get regulated by governments we should be fine

>>4446699

Bitcoin is more searched about than "Kanye" or "Loans", is about to beat "Trump" and is catching up on "gold".

Bitcoin is now mainstream. It's yesterday's investment.

Enjoy ur no gainz

>its not a bubble
move into bch while you still can

>>4446656
Given how few people can't know who is the US president by now, given all that's happened, I'd say your fact confirms it's still early

>>4446051
I'm >>4445943 (from another device) as we speak bitcoin is soaring over 8000 usd. You will see I was right. Work with stops and you'll be ok.

>>4446770
of the first world.