/biz/ - Business & Finance

>So how to get better?
By learning from your mistakes

>>3504261
This, I want to learn how to automate my trade orders and analyze chart patterns. Also need to learn how to short.

>>3504261
Practice with like 5% of your capital until you learn how to trade.

>>3504261
>Few people actually make money gambling. Is there a place I can learn gambling?
This is how you sound right now.

high volume coins only
be happy with 2-3%
only make a couple of trades a day

all you need to do is slowly make btc and wait for the btc price to rise to the moon OP

>>3504372
honestly it's safer to learn how to count cards and then go to casinos than it is to daytrade

>>3504292
good idea.
>>3504403
reasonable, thanks anon

>>3504423
>>3504372


>>3504372
>>3504423
Honestly, I don't say you guys are wrong because clearly I havent been good at trading or yeah, gambling. But there are people who do this as a regular job right? Like they daytrade daily and have a regular income with this. It's not like they gamble and don't rly know what they're doing right?

>>3504458
You're missing the point. Day trading is gambling, full stop. Some experts can be knowledgeable enough to get the odds on their side, just as some gamblers can count cards at blackjack or be experts at poker and have enough of an edge that they will usually win in the long run, but it's essentially the same thing.

>>3504458
You'd make far more money by learning a trade and doing honest work. But you don't want that, because that takes dedication and effort, and like every other sucker out there, you're effort-averse which is why you're drawn to gambling. In the end it doesn't really matter what I say, since I'm sure you've already made up your mind, but for anyone else reading this; it's a really fucking bad idea.

>>3504542
Thanks, reasonable
>>3504555
I don't get your anger, I graduated from university last year and work a regular Job that is fun to me. I only have play money in crypto, it's a hobby to me. I feel like I can use some parts of my weekend (like right now) to learn more and more about crypto and yes- trading itself because I feel like I know little about it. Whats bad about wanting to learn smething? Jeez I learned to speak french and I've never even been there

>>3504555
fuck off old man ill make some pesos MY WAY fag. trades and work is for the average sucker

>>3504261
been day trading btc for about a week average between 0.5-2% gains a day after counting transaction costs. To be honest considering the amount of time I spend just fucking watching and waiting it's not the best use of my time, maybe if you're getting those returns on 100k you're alright but when i'm playing with only a few thousand it's barely worth it oh well compound interest dreams if it keeps up will eventually be proper money

>>3504261
Even a fucking toddler can daytrade on crypto markets.
Buy something with a high volume when it's low enough, wait for it to gain 1-2 %, sell, rinse, repeat.

>>3504706
Flip shitcoins.

>>3504651
The fact that you're this defensive about your gambling habits, using the same old cliche justifications, and projecting while misconstruing concern as "anger" should be setting off red flags for you right now if you had even a shred of self knowledge. As I said in my previous post, you've clearly already made up your mind. Set a hard limit for how much you're willing to lose, and when you arrive at that threshold (and you definitely will), pull out and go cold turkey before your "just for fun XDDD" gambling fucks up your life.

>>3504706
If you're making more wins than losses then just margin trade and it will be worth the time.

>>3504791
projecting much

>>3504261
You lost 3 ETH out of how many? What was your starting capitol? Just 3 ETH capitol has the potential to make a living wage as it grows. do some quick research and make some gains. Look at the coin ULA its gained 715% in the last 24 hours. If you have money to blow look at BITOK its raised 53% in the last hour to .000075 your skuncle Earl wants to see everyone on this board happy. Good luck

>>3504261
>>3504291

The +2200 member bitpam /biz/ cryptocurrency trading/mining/coding discord server and their trading guide helped me a lot, could help you too maybe, says chart patterns and stuff like that

https://bitpam.com/cryptocurrency-trading-guide

discord.gg/VpPrGmF

MGTi.

>>3504832
That right there is exactly what I was talking about. It's like when a hole comes to you for some "serious advice", but in reality she already made up her mind and just wanted you to agree with her. She then gets pissy and defensive when you explain why it's a bad idea.

This'll be the last response you'll get from me, I just wanted you to know that you're behaving like a hole right now, and as a man that should embarrass the fuck out of you. Good luck with your gambling.

>>3504372
There are professional gamblers too.

Brainlets can't into manipulating probability

>>3504261
so much bad info in this thread. comparing it to gambling is idiotic. anyway op i started with 10k on august 1st and have 58k right now in 6 weeks. its not easy but you need to research trading books and apply them to crypto. key things to I utilize are volume, RSI, macd, bitcoin performance, and always analyze the 5 min/15min/1hr/4hr trends

>>3504959
you are either super lucky or legit smart gg

>>3504372
Still safer than buying anything other than XMR, BTC or ETH and hoping it rises in the next 6 months

>>3504959

"I started at the beginning of the biggest bull month in history and made random trades and now I think I'm a genius"

>>3504898
I lost some money in "real" gambling, but I learned a lot. I believe that you described it correctly.
Crypto is more dangerous than a casino because it's slow and gives an illusion of knowing, an illusion of the ability to learn from mistakes. It looks like it's a skill, it allows one to feel smart when he wins and even smarter when he claims to understand what made him lose.
We don't see people who lose, but every dollar comes from somebody else. Speculation or trading is a worthless activity that cannot create anything or benefit anyone else and thus it is gambling.
When I first came to /biz/, I thought that people here, invest to have something common to talk about, yet all I see now are retards who think they will win and become happy.

>>3505136
i competely agree that one of my issues with stocks and shit is the extent to which it is a zero sum game and for every winning value there has to be a losing value

>>3505104
The real geniuses are the ones who lost money during the bull run.

I suggest you read Daniel Kahneman work. He scientifically proved that it is impossible to predict market trends and that you should always take decision according to the base rate of an event. Currently, for altcoins there are more than 600 dead coins. I'll just let that sink in for a moment.

>>3505207
I will look into this, thanks anon

>>3504542
THEN
EXPLAIN WHAT THE FUCK ARE ALL THE AUTIST ON /BIZ/ DOINGON A DAYLY BASIS WITH THOSE CRIPTOFUCKING COINS ALL DAY

Watch the order book and 1-minute candles.

Buy if it dropped a lot and the orders are flipping.

Sell if it rose a metric shit ton and the orders are reversing. This happens really fast.

Practice a lot with no money on the line to get the feel for it.

>>3504261
>Wait for a coin with transaction volume of over 2000 BTC to crash
>Buy it
>Sell at 20% markup 2 hours later.

>>3504372
>>3504555
>>3504791
>>3504898
Then what are you doing in a gambling board?

>>3505784
Losing money for the most part

>>3504261
Only way you can make good money is by playing btc using leverage. Extremely risky. Wouldn't advise you to do it unless you're very experienced.

I've fucked myself over trading.
I seriously wish I had stuck to my original plan when starting with crypto of just buying and holding ARK.

you need 140 IQ or higher to day trade

>>3504651
>learned French
>not Mandarin
It's like you want to be poor forever

>>3504542
>blarrbh, i em duhmb faeget

>>3506942
Prove it

>>3504261

Hey Anon, day trading is pretty simple once you can grasp the fundamentals and psychology of this silly market.

One trick that will separate the men from the boys is patience.

Don't chase the prices, let the prices come to you.

When we say buy low, it doesn't mean to "wait for the dip". You need to enter positions using limit orders placed strategically. Anticipating the dip and having orders ready to catch them is KEY. Spread your limit buy orders downwards on every identifiable level of support. TA won't tell you which direction the price will go but it sure as hell can help you decide where to enter a position.

Dollar cost average your buys all the way to down to 0 and KEEP them there, remember FIFO.

Lastly, don't get greedy, take your profits accordingly, especially when trading on margin.

You'll get better with practice and your gonna get fucked up a few times before you're a pro.

>>3507945
>Don't chase the prices, let the prices come to you.

10/10 advice

>>3505207

Trading dead coins can be very lucrative if you know what you are doing... Just look on Coin Exchange, lol

>>3504261
this book

>>3504261 90% of traders lose 90% of their capital within 90 days

>>3504261
Daywhat? Okay little fag, im gonna tell you a story.

Id made a kiling setting stops in pairs dat often get flashcrased, for excample bch/btc on bittrex, crypto its about arbitrage bots, yoy just find the pair set the order, and dont get a fk about it, and alarm when it triggers so you dont actualy get on a real dump and dats it, there is tones of pairs where it happens and bots always safe your bet.

>>3508279
It is worth the read

>>3508314
great, now instead of being a sad kunt and getting discouraged learn to become the 10% in the easiest market that exists.

33% of men don't breed either and 99% of the world makes less than 33k a year. so what?

>>3508397
can someone translate to english

>>3508974
Ayo, ayo, ayo (smacks lips), we he be sayin is y'all gots to look at ratios n' shiet, then be likes I don't give a fuck n' shiet then y'all be sellin that shit when it be high yo

The only issue is every trade is a taxable event. So should i just buy the dips and hold? Or is eth/btc to tether not taxed?

I watch one minute charts until I see big green candles. Then I buy. Also, see those big red candles? Yea, sell them

>>3507945
This is the only advice you will need to day trade successfully

>>3509640
Ultrafaggot detected

>>3508974
he's creating limit orders and stop losses based on the assumption an exchange will glitch out and the price of a given currency pair plummets like 90%.

than he gets a notification X currency has been bought or reached the limit buy price. then he sells it when the exchange fixes said glitch or algos start the same protocol and begin buying on glitch

>>3504857
Thanks anon

>>3509640
christ man

I run a bot which is not based on cross exchange arbitrage.
Here are some observations for you anon.

> TA
e.g. meme charting
Essentially the equivalent of trying to put people on some hand (or on a range if you are not a brainlet) when playing poker, only applied to markets.
Just like in poker, completely depends on your ability to recognise and make use of patterns while filtering out noise.
Just like in poker, you are probably shit at this (as are 99.9% of people involved).
IF you happen to be good at this (and I doubt it), its still shit tier, as there are better ways to make use of your talent.
Most twitter twats and meme bloggers will present TA charts as some kind of ground truth, learn to dismiss all of that.

> Exploitation is how you make $
Identifying and exploiting market inefficiencies will allow you to successfully play any market regardless of its current trend
or future base trend. For example shitcoin extreme volatility is arguably an inneficiency ready to be exploited by something as simple as mean-reversion.

> Learn the math
Yes its hard, yes its boring, yes you are a brainlet anon, but you can do it.
Learning the math will allow you to actually understand why something works and how it works.
Always take a scientific approach, construct a hypnotises and test your strategy.
Math will allow you to construct your own financial instruments when you need them.
For example if you find that a time series is not particularly well suited to a simple linear model, you might still be able to find and exploit an inefficiency by constructing a hedging instrument (2 shitcoins and BTC for example) and here you would need to perform a cointegration test to get optimal hedge ratios.

> Use the data
And data here is everything from current price charts to trends from twitter, etc
But again, dont just go and trade by feels. Collect your data, make sure your data displays clear relational attributes (again there are various math/stat tests for this), etc

AMA

>>3510204
Boxers or briefs?

>>3510204

very interesting anon. do you run your stat arb bot on other types of assets. im interested in the math and want to code some bots to entertain myself, what are the main topics to cover?

I've been daytrading a bit, works okay, still would have made more money hodling.

Protip, bots are your victims, learn them, abuse them.

>>3504261
> buy low, sell high but how do you uys do it on a daily base?

I buy low and sell high daily

>>3509917
no problem, hope it helped!

>>3510325
I don't actually, well I used to a long time ago but then HFT took over and there's no feasible way to compete without a massive infrastructural effort. Also the whole reason Im in crypto is because its not plagued by phds and other quants (yet), in general all of finance dismisses it for now. So the competition is just right.

Regarding math all depends on how deep you want to go. Essential topics definitely include stats on at least an undergraduate level, some econometrics/micro-economics (from the top of my head, "The applied theory of price" mccloskey is a great book) and the usual math combo of calculus and linear algebra.
Some finance will probably help too, but I wouldn't call it essential unless you want to do automated portfolio management, etc.

"All of Statistics" by Wasserman will get you started. Other topics of interest include time series analysis, randomness, the domain of probability, maybe even game theory (very debatable because the central idea there will be impossible to compute with such a large amount of players involved).

If you want to apply non-linear models (which I would advice against in general) like machine learning, deep learning, reinforcement learning, etc then you absolutely need vector calculus, convex optimisation and of course linear algebra once again.

Def start with stats and pick up the pieces one by one.

>>3510515

Thanks Anon!! I think starting on your suggestions and learning some math will be very wholesome use of time. My goal will be to make something simple and improve it slowly.

>>3504261
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superposition
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schr%C3%B6dinger%27s_cat
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martingale_(betting_system)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compound_interest
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lysergic_acid_diethylamide
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Calculator
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coffee

all you need

>>3507975
Lmao

>>3504261
>Few people actually make money daytrading.
Few? More like many
I never traded in my life but its so fucking easy with crypto due to its volatility

>>3507945
>Don't chase the prices, let the prices come to you.
Maker = high iq master race.
Taker = low iq animal.

>>3508314
>90% of traders lose 90% of their capital within 90 days
HOW!!??

>>3509748
I read this as the voice of sam hyde

>>3510687
Exactly the right approach, start small and keep at it. Always strive for simplicity over complexity. Some of the most successful trading models (in terms of sharpe ratio) were incredibly simple and kept only a limited amount of free variables. Simplicity also gets rid of many statistical biases, like overfitting, look-ahead bias, etc.

>>3510735
No there aren't. People who say day make money daytrading are larping. Only HTF bots make money daytrading because they have algorithms that balance their trades and they make money wherever the market goes.
Telling whether the price will go up or down in a short time frame (less that one day in this case) is impossible.
It's easy to make money trading if you know what to look for, and sometimes a few hours after you get in you're already in big gains but usually it takes a few days or weeks to let the chart do its moves and buy safely and it may also take days or weeks until it goes where you expect it, depending on what type of trades you make.

Most people have to lose money (should be way more than 50%, around 80 or 90) because the funds with algos and pumpimg make easily hundreds of thousands a year (or more) and exchanges take a lot on fees. The people who make ICO's and coins also make huge gains all the time. This is all funded by "daytraders" who keep losing hundreds of dollars each day like OP

>>3504959
Yes this. And Also use mfi and bollinger bands. Look at all the trends before making decisions; 1min to 1day. Also learn to read the candles and wicks properly. Good luck! Make mistakes and learn from them

>>3510837
You have got to be fishing for somebody to spill their system otherwise you have been trolled hard into believing day trading doesn't work. I guess, um, stay poor?

>>3510870
You can still trade and make good money, not just daytrading, wait for good charts to set up and make good percentages

>>3510870
If someone makes even 2% a day guaranteed, they will be millionaires in a few months (you can do the math). Don't tell me "daytraders" (maybe like yourself?) can't make those percentages and be all millionaires

>>3510920
You can do 1-2 percent daily for a while day trading but eventually you reach a point where you are moving the price so you can only trade very large volume coins thus diminishing your opportunities. It works for a while though just not to millions of dollars.

>>3511037
Bitcoin only trades 1 billion dollars every day, you can easily buy 30k or 40k at any given time at a lot of exchanges and put money on several exchanges. Keep larping

>>3511131
The only way to day trade Bitcoin and consistently make 1-2 percent is with a crystal ball so obviously that's not what I'm talking about. The only way that I've been able to pull the percentage off is with Bitcoin as well as altcoins and waiting for the right set-up. I usually see 10-20 opportunities a day and I go in 5-10 percent of my wad on each one. Some trades do well some don't but they average out to, you guessed it, 1-2 percent.

>>3511131
Protip: As I write this at 4:50 AM eastern time, go in on GRS/BTC at Bittrex. You will make at least 4% within an hour or two. Check back and see if I was wrong. When you see that I'm not and you figure out why, you'll know how to profitably day trade.

>>3507057
lol..you are a special kind of tard thinking chinks care about a gwilo who speaks mandarin

>>3511193


Just did the same off OMG. Only prob with GRS is volume. Good luck tyring to dump 1 btc worth at the same price

>>3511168
coins like ethereum haven't changed even 10% within 10 days which means you're going for shorter (maybe 5%) percentages which is acceptable for a shot time frame. So you could take your money, do two or three of those in a week between the easier trades your find (super easy), and make the same percentage for 1/10 of the work.
And if you trade everyday, several coins, you're very exposed to the markets. It means that in the last several days, since a lot of popular coins are losing or not moving against bitcoin, you're losing money. The purpose of trading is to not be exposed to the markets which defeats the purpose of daytrading

>>3511253
I do both. Actually I trade in as many time frames as I deem profitable. But since the thread is asking about day trading specifically, I was addressing that. My whole point was that it can be done. As an aside, I enjoy trading so I take small day trade positions to not get bored waiting for the longer stuff to come through. Then I pointed out a position in real time that if anybody had taken would be profitable right now. That's really about all I think needs to be said. You do you.

>>3511278
pivot points?

>>3511288
I pay attention to support but I don't specifically use pivot points as I don't consider the probability of success to be high enough.

>>3511278
Prob better off holding GRS as they've a fork in 5 days but yah. Hitting those small 50 vol market is ez 5-10% for sub 0.5btc.

I have 20% of my portfolio/ around 4btc just sitting in TAAS atm for its dividends and it holds well through heavy news cos no one gives a fuck about it lol

>>3511319
This guy gets it. For small accounts say under 30-40 thousand dollars, you can make bank just day trading crypto. After that, to keep growing, you have to transition to swing and position trading at a minimum. I get the impression that 40k is more than most bizraelis have seen in their lives so day trading is a very viable topic.

>>3504261
Crypto is literally gambling. It takes minutes to for developers to dump all of their premined coins on your ass so hodl isn't safe. Daytrading crypto is even more dangerous, a big green candle could just be followed by a bigger red candle and then daytraders would panic sell. You need a good bot for daytrading but the price isn't worth it as the bot can only handle small volumes. Just invest in stocks because even if your ROI is small, it is a guaranteed ROI with no NEGATIVES.

>>3504261
Start by understanding other derivatives. Then learn to hedge and arbitrage.

Speculation is just gambling.

>>3511193
I'd just like the record to reflect that as of 5:38 AM, GRS bounced past 4% just like I said it would. Hope you non-believers are taking notes. Hint: I do this all day e'ryday.

>>3511402
Appreciate your posts friend, thanks a lot!

>>3511369
Depends.
If bitcoin gets more mainstream use then it won't be the ponzi scheme it currently is.
It will obtain real value then. Making it just like any other market.

>>3511402
How long did it take for you to figure out how to trade properly?

>>3511402
Inside info or just good analysis?

>>3511515
I've been trading about 10 years. Started in penny stocks but that wasn't scammy enough so I got into crypto a while back. Much smaller market and the tools aren't as well developed but it's much easier to read a chart.
>>3511520
Haha. Thanks for the compliment. I just read the chart and do what it tells me. I won't give away my system but I'll say this, I don't use any meme lines, I rarely buy the rumor or sell the news. I just trade the chart as it is.

>>3511550
>I don't use any meme lines, I rarely buy the rumor or sell the news. I just trade the chart as it is.
I also think listening to rumours here is asking for trouble.
But if a rumour matches the data I might be interested.

Also I'm fully aware of cons. Most shills here seem to promote a coin then proceed to dump it.

OP here, want to take a sec and thank you guys for all the responses. Lots of good information here.
Also fuck off >>3504898 Good luck with life

>>3504857
discord has helped desu

>>3511520

Its called buy the fucking dip you pleb. Christ. It just came down from 12% downtrend, and then dipped heavily in 30 mins wtf do you think was going to happen in a currently recovering btc movement.

You guys I fucking swear. No brains.

>>3511737
How good were you for the first year ?
How was your balance for the first two months ?

>>3510204
How much fiat/crypto has your bot available for trading and how much are you making?
Can you give use some good references?

>>3510358
>Protip, bots are your victims, learn them, abuse them.
What do you mean by that?
It's not the first time I've been reading this.

>>3511737
Why not wait for certain alert levels and buy orders to lock in prices?

>>3512064
Bots are bots.
They only do what is programmed.

Unless they're sentient AIs they can't react as well as people to specific conditions, especially macrocosmic conditions.
They're essential like very early evolved organisms. Nothing like people.

>>3512064
just look at the order book for the big orders and just watch how they are shifting and manipulating the price and compare where they set it to candles on a chart and you can get a general idea of what's about to happen and ride the whales/bots. But it's risky as a bigger whale can always enter

I mean

>Wanting to live off of trading

>Stable in the long term

Pick one

Why people dont just buy an ASIC and make 500$ guaranteed a month is beyond me

>>3512356
Do you mean the whale-bots putting scare-walls just behind non-bots to scare-derive the price in one direction, then cashing in and doing the same in the opposite direction ?

>>3512379
I made about 1.4% on litecoin last night but i was staring at the order book for ages and constantly changing my buys and sells but you can see the 2000+ orders create a range to trade in and when i was trading the buy orders were fluctuating a lot and you could tell someone was trying to pull the price down further and further so I sold and waited for it to drop, it rose again to the upper limit of the right hand side, sold again and bought lower. But I think its a lot more stable at the moment.

Shit explanation but you get the basic idea

'Technical Analysis: The Complete Resource for Financial Market Technicians' by Kirkpatrick and Dahlquist
'Technical Analysis for the Trading Professional' by Brown

>>3512515
Basically the CMT course books.

>>3512167
For a fun experiment try trading etfs or futures without machine assistance, see how well that works out for you.
You can certainly exploit crypto bots right now. But thats for the time being. In actuality that tells you very little about bots in general.

There's no need for sentience or so called general AI at all, a properly constructed and tested model can generalise well enough to capture inequalities, including those created by others in attempts to "outplay" or exploit the model.

>>3504857
trying to ask questions or have any serious conversation in that discord is like trying to find a needle in a haystack

>>3504261
I'm writing an assumptionless evolutionary algo that spitballs random candlestick associations (ie - one gene in an individual might be "is the T-20-25M candlestick's gain 1.5x higher than the bottom shadow in T-10-15M?"), tracks how coins perform when the conditions are met, culls the weak, breeds the best performers, mutates them, then runs again. Is there any merit to this approach or am I just a retard banging on a tin can?

My take is that I'm an idiot and have no idea what works or doesn't. So I want to let blind chance find the right indicators for me. Right now after about 30 generations it tells me I could expect to make an average 0.7% gain (seven tenths of one percent) per trade after tx fees, versus -0.06% in a control situation (no indicators, totally random buying). At 50 trades a day that's around 30%/day. Probably not accurate, only real trading will tell for sure.

I also feel a lot of the slick technical analysis packages might be overengineered and built on inappropriate assumptions derived from performance in other more developed markets. So I'm hoping my retard machine will stumble over some really stupid-looking, high-performing pattern that the big boys have overlooked.

I'll probably hook in the APIs sometime this week and let $100 loose on the exchange to see how it performs in realtime.

>>3513773
agreed it's hard but new so it's worth it

>>3504770
You're an idiot.

>>3513910
Haha I like it anon. Take your backtests with a grain of salt though, overfitting in genetic programming is extremely easy. For selection I feel like tournament style selection is worth looking into. Your thoughts on reinforcement learning?

>>3513910
>At 50 trades a day that's around 30%/day.
That's an extremely high performance and you know that. How long is the average trade you're looking at?

>>3514019
I'm a dumbass so I don't know what any of those things are. I'm definitely learning as I go. Reading up on reinforcement learning it's probably something I should try to implement, my current code is definitely susceptible to converging hard on local maxima, even with frequent mutation thrown in. Mostly because it's an elitist simulation (Parents survive indefinitely if they are the best performers).

I can simulate buy and sell orders but I can't really simulate fulfillment of those orders or at what price. That's probably where all of my simulated gains will vanish. I need to load up 1H or 3H candlesticks and simulate swing trades, reduced fee frequency will probably help performance a lot.

>>3514120
Interesting Anon! how many associations / variables can your algo recognise? Is it possible to slow down the evolutionary process so as not to kill off a gene until you are statistically certain its shit?

>>3514104
Yeah I'm sure it's wrong. Even if it is right it's probably only right under the most low-volume of circumstances. Right now the average hold time is about 2.5 hours.

>>3514182
pretty much anything you can pull down from the CryptoCompare API. Candlestick open, close, high, low, tovolume, fromvolume, and then I calculate period gain, topshadow, btmshadow on top of that. And it can pick any of those to relate to anything else. Most will be nonsense or impossible, which is fine.

The second question is a good one. Two relationships/genes can (in theory) suck dick by themselves but be highly predictive in tandem. So just because a set of genes are awful doesn't mean they couldn't combine with another set to make great kids. Probably as I have it right now the answer is no, it is just too simple of a model. It also always picks the top X best performing individuals to fuck each generation, I should fix it to give lesser individuals a chance of a lucky break to keep the new blood flowing in.

>>3514210
2.5 hours for 10-25 minute candles, right?
>Yeah I'm sure it's wrong.
It doesn't necessarily have to be wrong. Stick with it, test it in real time on an exchange. You just might make yourself a billionaire.

>>3514321
12 of 5-minute candles, actually, just a one-hour window. It is pretty easy to change the candle size or the window size but I was keeping it short while building and testing so the simulations would stay snappy.

Bitcoin, the most liquid crypto have so large slippage and spread it would be very hard to generate any long term alpha intraday trading

Other coins like ethereum, it's not even worth looking because you cannot use any leverage due to "flash crashes" like we've witnessed. Those events will wipe out all positions

>>3514292

you're a nerd anon, brainlet me isnt remotely near that stage yet.

my understanding is that, old-school style is to fit data to get some sort of a linear regression model and hopefully that produces some sort of useful result. however the process of improving this model over time is likely to be highly manual and involve some thought from humans.

In your project, your evolutionary algo leanrs on its own (and hence excludes that human effort) right?

i forgot all the math and stats that was drilled into me and sadkek now

18% off GRS today = 200 USD. I made 2 clicks.

8% off OMG = 850 USD. I made 4 clicks.

I'm now done with crypto for the day and going out to town. People here chasing green when you need to be buying red ffs

Do people here reinvest their crypto profits into crypto, or do they accumilate it back into the fiat pile?

>>3514533
yeah I took a few college stat classes ages ago and forgot it all too. I showed the algo to a maths friend and the first thing he asked was "why aren't you doing linear models." I hadn't even thought about them is why. Totally forgot the concept from school. But you're right, it feels like they inherently require more hand-tuning and more assumptions to make work. Maybe I'm totally off on that. In the end my gene clusters and someone's linear model both basically try to say "it looks like things will go green in the near future", and make a buy based on that.

Nature doesn't predict how things are going to turn out when it evolves shit, it just applies selective pressure and lets the chromosomes sort everything out. It's elegantly blind. As a total idiot, I find this very appealing, and it keeps the hope alive that I can stumble into something consistently predictive without needing to know anything beyond the bare mechanics of selection, fitness, and mutation. As well as some really basic programming language (It's in fucking PHP... I didn't know any PHP a month ago... I automate it in windows task scheduler... please send help)

I didn't bother to read the other comments, but make sure you have enough capital to day trade. You can't expect to make good returns on a few hundred dollars.

Another thing is you really need to set limits to keep from getting greedy. You don't make 15% gains in one day doing day trading(except on a few very rare occasions). Set a sell/buy limit at a reasonable profit (1-5%) and stick with it. Greed will fuck you in day trading. Early on I would hold shit that was up 10% thinking it would go higher only to have it plummet back to the price I bought at in like 15 minutes. Take your profits and move on to the next trade.

>>3514766
>Early on I would hold shit that was up 10% thinking it would go higher only to have it plummet back to the price I bought at in like 15 minutes

This has happened to me more times than I can count. I need to git gud.

>>3514766
Flipside of this is, use lunch money only until you can get really consistent returns, no matter what you're doing (day trading, algos, arbitrage, whatever). Don't go balls deep with $5k if it's baby's first trade.

>>3514725

very fascinating, all teh best anon. brainlet kek can send no halp with php HAHAHA

Avoiding "Getting greedy" is something 70's trading advices. Anybody who talks about emotions while trading or that emotions are the largest obstacle not having edge are not living in todays world, it's all automated now.

Overall it seems kids here are vastly over optimistic about their abilities to trade and under estimating the markets these days, and proving absolutely no real results of their ideas. I would be interesting to even witness a btc srtat over 1000 trades that would have been better than just buy and hold since start of the year. Especially after the fees and real trading sippages

>>3511619
Agreed, this has been fairly educational by /biz/ standards

>>3512437
What app is that, anon?

So many shorts just got murdered lol
https://twitter.com/bitmexrekt

>>3512373
There's plenty of reasons. Start looking into it and youll see

>>3512373
>ASIC
the fuck is asic anon?

>>3515214
Bitfinex mobile app

>>3515745
you could easily google it you fucking moron

>>3515956
I figured he has to mean something different than an Asic Miner as you can't earn money with those things in most places of the earth. Electricity cost and shit. Also, most good miners are hard to get and take ages till you get them and mining profitability gets less and less for almost everything. I know several people that had big mining rigs but all stopped as it become unprofitable with time. If you live in a dorm or something and don't pay for electricity it could be a good thing, otherwise it's not (in most places)

>>3516174
he's very obviously either a newcoiner or nocoiner. they're all extremely cocky and think everyone else is retarded; and that their idea is somehow original and fullproof

>>3514766
>Another thing is you really need to set limits to keep from getting greedy. You don't make 15% gains in one day doing day trading(except on a few very rare occasions). Set a sell/buy limit at a reasonable profit (1-5%) and stick with it. Greed will fuck you in day trading. Take your profits and move on to the next trade.
This is excellent advice.

>>3514602
reinvest if your trades get you less than $100 each, something like 25% back to fiat indefinitely each trade when they get you more
when you find yourself moving the prices, find another way to get growth or learn how to whale, or just keep your current cashflow as enough and accustom yourself to your current lifestyle as your future

i guess, roughly speaking

>>3514725
that was my initial reaction too anon. You ever heard of the "no free lunch" theory? The problem with non-linearity is its eventual complexity. Linear models are attractive, especially in finance when a lot of money is on the line, because they can be succinctly explained when shit goes south. On the other hand when you have a black box things are considerably harder.

And assumptions are always involved, linear or non-linear doesn't really matter. With genetic programming though fittest =/= optimal. And then it gets hard to say why a certain evolved strategy is performing in a certain way. In other words, assumptions will still be there you'll just need to work in reverse to figure out why they are there.

Dont want to discourage you though, keep looking. I'm just an old fuck trying to help out.

Reinforcement learning, at least in other domains, shows promise as you can clearly constrain some of that initial uncertainty.

>>3509640
Can any of you respond to this comment?

>>3511402
>>3511193
Pls to give tips on how to read charts like you do. I beg of you.

>>3504261
You only lose if you sell at a loss.

>>3518389
afaik trading currencies is not taxed. eg. if you go abroad and buy a foreign currency and when you come back and sell it you won't be charged extra if you happen to be selling it at a profit. it's just currency.

>>3518678
Two tips and that's all I'm going to say.
1. Ethereum is the easiest chart to day trade so start learning there.
2. Zoom out on that chart to about two months worth of data with 1 hour candle intervals and note the extreme dips. Note how they pop back up every time. When these patterns start forming in the future, start buying.

Day trading is cancer