/biz/ - Business & Finance

bump

imagine the victory “told you so” lap that trump will take as soon as the markets crash and ask yourself again if the powers that be will allow that to happen

>>30423496
>I've heard the arguments from the inflation crowd that there's too much elite and boomer retirement money in stonks, such that it will never be politically viable to let the markets crash, so we'll implement yield controls and let the dollar inflate away.
Eh, it may not be politically expedient, but the government can't 100% protect against a crash. The half-dozen or so stock market crashes that happened in the past century of American finance happened despite lots of rich people owning stocks

>>30423496
bump

>>30424222
I know we say "can't fight the FED" but they aren't literally omnipotent. They can't perfectly defend against a black swan type event..

>>30424683
I don't think america has many friends financially anymore.
Even if the fed patches it up this time, it feels like everyone will just be waiting for the next.

>>30424978
Every asset is inflated tho, even gold and land... where do I move my money if I wanna protect it?

>>30424222
>trump-supported candidate wins in 2024
what now

>>30424222
yeah that's true, even beside the usual reasons, the optics of a market crash right now for sleepy would be absolutely suicide.

>>30424978
Right, it'll crash eventually. Question is whether TPB would ever just decide to get it over with in a controlled demolition, instead of kicking the can forever and then getting black swanned in an uncontrolled market implosion. Seems like we always get the latter because nobody in power has the balls to face the music and do what has to be done.

Someone please explain why YCC would result in the USD inflating out of control.

>>30425409
I don't know but that's the meme narrative. Pic related.

>>30423496
Will they allow them to correct? No.

Will they correct anyways? Yes.

We are a depressed economy living in a hyper inflated fantasy bubble. Depression is already here, it's just that numbers on a screen are telling people otherwise. When, or if, people begin to sell assets, the limited amount of potential buyers with sufficient capital will either force prices to correct, or boomers won't sell. In the later, more probable scenario, which we are more or less in, prices do not reflect reality and exist only to encourage more bad investments and reduce incentive for production which will decrease money supply and lead to scarcity in the dollar and a depression regardless.

>>30425409
i don't get it either
it sounds like QE to me but people say QE Is a fix amount of dollars while YCC can have a much greater number of dollars (though idk how since they're buying bonds issued at a predictable rate so it'd just be the fed buying the bonds instead of china)

>>30425654
(Continued)

The artificial yields produced by stocks and crypto will be so attractive that the majority of money in circulation will be poured in. Again, these yields do not reflect reality because any attempt to cash out will cause prices to reflect the depressed state we are in. Hence, "don't sell, don't lose.". However, all this money will be tied up in a black hole of sorts, not able to be invested in real entrepreneurial ventures the produce real cash gains.

We are living in a zombie, fantasy economy.

>>30426076
(Continued)

Finally, with America's pro Chinese president, it is only logical that a depression is around the corner. China will do everything in their control to keep the U.Sm from hyper inflating their debt away. This final realization, that China would desire a stronger U.S. dollar in terms of our debt owed, is the most compelling argument for a looming depression over further hyperinflation.

>>30425672
>it sounds like QE to me but people say QE Is a fix amount of dollars while YCC can have a much greater number of dollars
I think YCC is essentially QE infinite, as you're essentially pledging to buy as many treasury notes as it takes (with brrrr dollars) to keep yields suppressed below your target.

>>30425654
>In the later, more probable scenario, which we are more or less in, prices do not reflect reality and exist only to encourage more bad investments and reduce incentive for production which will decrease money supply and lead to scarcity in the dollar and a depression regardless.
You make it sound like a continuation of the musical chairs game at this point would in itself be deflationary, which I'm not following at all.

What's your hold for the scenario you're envisioning? 100% cash?

>>30427469
I am bullish on cash.

>>30425240
Australia

>>30425409
>>30425672
YCC isn't just about the dollar amount
With YCC the FED sets a range the yield of a treasury (likely the 10y and later on other maturities) has to stay in and they will buy as much as needed to maintain the yield in that range
There's trillions of dollars of treasuries outstanding so if institutions wanted, they just just simply start dumping and the FED would buy it which means a flood of (new) dollars enters into the market and goes to these institutions
That's already an issue and will cause inflation in things those dollars would flow into: equities, properties and eventually though lending other parts of the economy
The bigger problem is that if institutional holders decide to cash out trillions of treasuries the reason behind that would likely also mean they want to (at least partially) move away from the dollar, which would weaken the dollar against other currencies. The sentiment that made institutions dump trillions of USD debt would also push them to want to do trade in currencies other than the USD, as more of the global trade is done in not-USD that means Americans will have to import goods priced in not-USD and because their USD is weaker against that currency, they would now had to pay more USDs for the same goods.

>>30427469
And to clarify, when people think they are getting rich on assets, they decide to not actually invest and produce real gains based on production. When they figure out they will be selling their assets at little or no profit they will be stuck with little to no means to produce income because they have not positioned themselves for that scenario.

Dollar is gonna inflate away so fast and far that instead of carrying around Tubs of Tubman they are gonna have everyone trade in their worthless slave trash currency for a digital dollar

>>30428308
We already have a digital dollar, it's called online banking and debit/credit cards. And people already have traded their cash in for it.

>>30427898
>my options are poverty or Austrailia
OHNONONO!

>>30423496
It is of my belief that in order to ensure the pricing out of all Millies and Zoomies from all valuable assets forever is to continue inflating everything higher, while continuing to debase the currency.
>You will own nothing
>You will be happy
I think it is likely that the boom/bust cycle is done. It would also be risky for the kikes to try it again this time, as they could lose big at their own game if they pull the rug. Reasons for such thinking is a whole other conversation. But I'm heavily leaning toward a melt-up.

>>30428402
underrated concept

>>30427982
>There's trillions of dollars of treasuries outstanding
ohhhhhh this is the part i wasn't understanding
at first i was thinking "oh well YCC is just the fed buying government bonds issued but they are issued at a predictable rate" so i didn't see how that'd be an issue
but i didn't think about the trillions in existing bonds being dumped on the market that the fed would have to buy
that makes a lot more sense now ty

>>30423496
It's inflate.
There there ever would be a deflationary depression it would have been in 2008 or 2020. The monetary and fiscal authorities have demonstrated they will print endless money to prevent a deflationary collapse.
So it is absolutely an inflationary crack-up boom we are heading towards.
If the fiscal and monetary authorities suddenly switch to being austrian economists or someone who promises to balance the US budget wins election I will reevaluate my proposition. But otherwise I am absolutely assured of inflationary rather than deflationary outcome.
Listen to Lyn Aldren and read this
Democracy in Deficit: The Political Legacy of Lord Keynes by James M. Buchanan and Richard E. Wagner
https://www.econlib.org/library/Buchanan/buchCv8.html

>>30428402
Fully digital currency will be much more than that. Governments will be able to tell you where and when to spend your money, they'll have direct control. They can say "you need to spend 10% of your income on electronics manufactured in US in the next month, otherwise that 10% will be gone". Can't do it now can they. Entirely new world

>>30423496
Good question OP I've also been wondering what happens if they let it run it's course.
>b-b-but they wont
But what happens if they will? Won't it fix most of the problems at the cost of creating a horrible worldwide crisis that lasts maybe a decade? Now that I think about it, won't that crisis create a massive opportunity for China to walk right into those collapsed markets and buy everything? Someone with a higher IQ needs to figure this out

>>30427898
Lmao no

>>30423496
they simply cannot allow interest rates to rise
US revenue per fiscal year is $3.42 trillion
US interest payment per fiscal year $523 billion
US national debt $28 trillion
so currently the US would have to pay 15,29% of its revenue for interest, with an interest rate of 1%

if we now assume a interest rate of 5% refinancing the debt will lead to yearly spening of $1.4 trillion or a whopping 40.93% of US revenue
tell me how you are going to run a nation that has to spend 50% of its revenue on interest payments... its impossible and will never happen

>>30431674
>tell me how you are going to run a nation that has to spend 50% of its revenue on interest payments...
The same way you implement ycc, by printing more money. Is this really your argument anon? US can always print money. The question is what are going to be the consequence in each money printing scenario and which one will lead to worse consequences

I think they will simply implement a YCC and inflate the dollar into oblivion. The average person is stupid enough to simply accept rising prices and will likely not doing anything about it as long as they have their bread and circus.

>muh money printing

Lol this will barely influence inflation. The real source of inflation are bankers.

Because banks create inflation by loaning money they don't have, effectively creating new money out of nowre. Fractional reserve banking allows banks to only keep a fraction of what you deposit into them, the rest they can loan out. The money doesn't exist until it is repaid. So banks loan out money that doesn't exist, it gets used to pay stuff and eventually ends up at the same banks where it is loaned again. This loops and loops until $10k in deposits becomes $100kin new curesncy that only exists as numbers in a darabase.

Obviously these jewish bankers want to keep this system going, so they shill constantly to keep the normie disinformed. Inflation is like a tax on everyone by these fucking jew bamkers