/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>30271514
WHY DOES FEAR OF INFLATION CAUSE A DUMP?? SHOULDN'T PEOPLE MOVE MONEY INTO ASSETS IF DOLLAR IS INFLATING AND NOT THE OTHER WAY AROUND???????

>>30271514
they are this desparate to undo how BTC is allowing people to escape printing tax. Most people who switched to this boomer shit already did yesterday, so today green day and panic sellers will get rekt

>>30271582
because the fed has to raise rates to combat hyperinflation
how can you not understand this?

>im so fucking tired from losing funds
>wish to die everyone who talks to me
>i see graphene AIRDROP soon
>i invest in PHR tokens and get some graphene tokens
>i get money from sharding tech
>i fuck your mama underneath your bed

>>30271514
it's means they're crashing the world economy with no survivors because of their feelsies.

>>30271640
i thought they cant raise rates without stocks throwing a tantrum?

>>30271514
It’s just an excuse to correct the markets, retard. Tail Wags the dog. We’ve had straight up market since November. Really since April. And markets need to breathe. Nevertheless I panic sold. Feels comfy.

>>30271785
that is correct, but if the choice is between crashing the markets or hyperinflation I think they will choose to finally let the markets crash like they are supposed to every once in a while

>>30271869
>Nevertheless I panic sold. Feels comfy.
Same here desu
Probably a retarded move but having a big pile of cash when you have no idea how things will play out helps me sleep at night

>>30271582

Any time stocks drop, people blame it on whatever happened at the same time. So maybe its the yield, maybe not. But if risk free yield goes up say 1%, then that's 1% less a stock is going to return relative to just holding cash, and it also makes borrowing money more expensive, which really hurts the bubble tech companies.

And people aren't necessarily scared about 1.5% yield, they are scare of it breaking 1.5% resistance and spiking to 4%+. That would murder bubble tech. Like go to zero crash, because ti puts every zombie-bubble-tech company out of business. It would probably crash the major indices up to 50% as well.

>>30271514

american government got boohoo so now it's time to crash the economy again

JUST TELL ME WHAT TO FUCKING BUY/HOLD!!!!!!!

IS IT PUTS?
IS IT CALLS?
IS IT STONKS?
IS IT BONDS?
IS IT CRYPTO?
IS IT BOOMER ROCKS?
IS IT USD???

TELLL MEEE!!!!

>>30271999
Seeing elon go from the peak to being an ordinary pleb would be nice.

>>30272189
this. I want to make the big short kind of trade.

>>30272189
The DXY is the only thing going up right now.

stockbros...

Plus you know it’s not total economic doom cuz btc hasn’t shit the bed. So imho it’s just a healthy market correction.

>>30272189
Combination of below. I try and keep mine about:
IS IT STONKS? - 55%
IS IT BONDS? - 10%
IS IT CRYPTO? - 15%
IS IT BOOMER ROCKS? - 10%
IS IT USD??? - 10%

>>30272189
>>30272256

Its at resistance now, so if its rejected you could see a short term recovery. Retards will BUY THE DIP HURRR, so they will probably bounce, VIX will go "back to normal," that is the time to load up on puts.

>>30271785
>>30271873
Can someone explain to me why raising rates causes the stockmarket to explode?

>>30272411
because lending become expensive, and right now stocks is speculative

>>30271612
kek who do you think owns bitcoin? they are going to reset your wealth. you will own nothing, and you will cry hourly.

>>30271640
Jpowel said he won't raise rates
>>30271873
So.. markets are thinking that the government will HAVE to choose between inflation and crashing the stock markets and they will choose the latter?

>>30272486
Surely the opposite, ironically. Bond yields are rising because the markets are anticipating higher inflation (implying they expect Chairman Powell to save their bacon).

Doesn't mean it will happen though.

>>30272411
Because the stock market is supposed to reward higher risk with a higher ROI through interest paid.
If the interest of debt is too high it makes no sense for the stock market to be so overvalued because its return is lower than less risky debt.

>>30272471
They’re are going to suck my dick hourly, and they will like it.

>>30272395
ok but how can I go long on interest rate volatility?

>>30271582
people dont want bonds because they think they wont beat inflation so they dump them which lowers bond price which makes bond yields go up, when bond yields go up they become more attractive for people to put money into so people pull money out of other assets like the stock market to put into bonds which makes the stock market (and crypto) go down.

the fed wants to keep interest rates low so people wont buy bonds so the stock market wont crash, but to keep bond yields from rising they will need to buy the bonds to keep the yields from going up, however they cant do this now since inflation is going to hit like a mf from all the money they printed when the lockdowns end, they need to pull money out of the economy before that happens so that means they need to sell bonds now instead of buying them. basically which means the stock market is probably gonna crash

>>30272547
What's going to happen if the stock markets crash on anticipation alone and the fed just doesn't do anything. Will that fix the problem?? Where is the money going to when its leaving the stock markets now?

>>30271640
> how can you not understand this?
Jew math can be difficult to understand

>>30271640
stop throwing "hyperinflation" around when you don't know what it is. Hyperinflation is Weimar and Zimbabwe, not your 10% a year bullshit.

>>30272698
Reliable boomer chip companies like mining/healthcare wont get hurt anywhere near as bad as basedboy tech shit, right?

I think jewhnson and jewhnson lost like 15-20% during dotcom, housing and covid crash, which is barely anything.

>>30271514
They have to do this because inflation is coming—but they won’t say it.

>>30272411

Right now there is 0% interest rate. Where do you invest? Savings accounts / CDs with 0.025% return? No, everyone piles into stocks which have driven valuations to insane levels. Now imagine there is an inflation spike after covid ends and people actually want to spend the piles of cash they accumulated during covid. Look back to 1980, rates spiked to 20% to combat inflation. So what if you could save your money in a savings account again and get 4-6% guaranteed returns? A lot of people are going to say fuck stocks and just take the risk free money.

>>30272723
>Where is the money going to when its leaving the stock markets now?

There is no money "in the stock market." When you buy a share, your money gets immediately transferred to the person who previously owned the share. When no one wants to buy stocks anymore, the prices will fall, but that doesn't mean money is coming out or something, that theoretically money that you could have had if you sold just disappears.

>>30272698
Your first paragraph is contradicting itself.
>people dont want bonds because they think they wont beat inflation so they dump them
And buy what?
>people pull money out of other assets like the stock market to put into bonds
But you said they are dumping bonds.. (which I think is right because yields are increasing)

>>30272391
Obvious larp

>>30272885
well right now they are dumping them for usd i think which is why dxy is going up, this guy explains the whole thing better than i can

https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/lxf7y0/whats_happening_with_the_bond_market_or_how_i/

>The state of /biz/

RISING RATES CAUSES A CRASH, BECAUSE IT MEANS PEOPLE ARE SELLING THEIR BONDS. PMS,CRYPTO, STOCKS AND BONDS ARE SELLING OFF BECAUSE PEOPLE ARE RUNNING TO CASH. USD. USD. USD.

THIS IS THE DEFLATION BEFORE THE HYPER INFLATION. RATES WANT TO MOVE UP BY INCREASING THEIR RISK PREMIUMS, BUT THE FED SAYS NOPE. SO NOW THAT RATES ARE ACTUALLY RISING WE NEED JPOW TO COME OUT AND OFFICIALY IMPLEMENT YIELD CURVE CONTROL. WITHOUT YCC RATES ARE GOING TO GO INTO A WILD PRICE-DISCOVERY AND THE US WILL FALL INTO A DEFLATIONARY SPIRAL.

HOWEVER IF/WHEN YCC IS IMPLEMENTED, THE USD WILL RAPIDLY LOSE VALUE(EVEN FASTER THAN IT IS NOW) AND HYPERINFLATION IS HERE. THERE IS NO ESCAPE FOR THE US. THESE ARE POWELLS ONLY TWO OPTIONS.

but now they're talking about the "twist" sell short term bonds and buy long term to artificially give the yield curve a shape

>>30271514
> "if i keep posting this someone will care!"

>>30272411
as the cost of capital increases, the stock valuation decreases
the net present value of the expected future cash flows is lower when using a higher discount rate
I suggest reading a finance book if you want to understand this more in depth

>>30272486
>So.. markets are thinking that the government will HAVE to choose between inflation and crashing the stock markets and they will choose the latter?
I believe so yes, that after kicking the can down the road for years they are finally forced to choose between bad and worse. It could be that they let inflation run wild or even can't control it at all so it is best to be prepared for either outcome

>>30272832
maybe I should have said "very high inflation" instead

>>30272189
I don't fucking know so I try to just make it balanced, something like this:
50% cash
10% PM
10% crypto hedged with puts
10% commodities
10% stock options
10% random stocks and etfs that I can't be bothered to sell

B...bros

>>30273420
Poomp it

>>30271514
We’re bringing back the 1970’s.
>10% year over year inflation
>40% Morgage rates
>flat income levels
Hope you didn’t plan on ever buying a home anon

>>30273420
whale manipulation

>>30271514
based burgers are finally crashing the global economy

>>30273329
>I suggest reading a finance book if you want to understand this more in depth
will Intelligent investor do it?

>>30272998
Why would cash be better than bonds, when bonds pay cash with interest?

>>30273790
pretty sure everyone is in cash now to position themselves and waiting on the feds

>>30272998
Now tell me when the hyperinflation or crash starts. 1 month?

I’m so fucking ready hurry up and DOMP EET

>>30273488
>buy 100% leverage at 2% interest rates now
>inflation makes that in 5 years mortgage payments are basically two big macs a month
How many houses should I buy /biz/

>>30271514
it’s fucking over
im unironically having a panic attack

>>30273420
WTFWT

>>30271514
Brainlet here, what am I looking at? And why is 1.5% a big deal?

>>30273790

Because the face value of bonds go down when interest rates go up. Think about it, why would I buy $1000 worth of 1.5% bonds from you when I can buy 3% bonds on the open market that pay the same payout in the end with less up front money?

>>30273854
>>30274173
You're making perfect sense, thank you.

>>30274116
The Big One

>>30273987
If you are renting at least one.
Lock in a Morgage at 2% now.
Landlords will raise the rent every year. You will be trapped forever.

So all the bullshit aside, what’s the best play here? I got 60k link and 50k USD in the bank. What do I do?

>>30272838
Profitable companies dont need low rates to survive, only unprofitable bullshit needs new credit to pay their operations and service their debths
Luxury stuff that is profitable now might not be so in an ecobomic downturn but stuff people really need like utilities and cobsumer defensive may only drop a little, not because its worth less now but because the cheap prices of other stocks become more attractive
They also might be seen as save haven and rise, i see that happening right now

>>30274826

Convert it all into BTC.

>>30274826
Stack silver Biden’s

>>30272838
i would be buying dividend stocks like at&t and lumn if i had a lot of money. the high dividend yields will keep the price from dropping too much on those. i only got 100k tho so im riding this shit out in crypto tho fuck it im trying to make it this year

>>30273496
Likley
Might just be whales finally being afraid of inflation, but then we would see pms rise

>>30271582
OP pic isn't about inflation, it's about interest rates.

Interest rates currently are at a historic low, so it's pretty amusing seeing people lose their shit at a possible increase.

>>30273771
can't tell you since I never read that myself
I would suggest something like this which is what is used in finance class
https://www.amazon.com/Fundamentals-Corporate-Finance-DeMarzo-Harford/dp/0134475569

>Treasuries are too high the economy is gonna implode!!

>>30275069
Not surprised that it doesnt even say "In God We Trust"

>>30275284
this lol

Fucking newfags.

>>30275151
Think about why they are at historic lows
Why does the fed see the need to manipulate rates into historic lows
Why did they stop

>>30275284
its only that low because the fed were buying the bonds keeping it artificially low though and the fed dude didnt give any indication that they were going to keep doing that in his speech yesterday

>>30275284
Check the amount of debt then and now.

>>30275368
Because the Jew's gig was uncovered in 2007.

It means 1st world problems are going to disappear. Bye bye trannies that require constant medical attention. Your shit infested hole will be your death.

>>30275284
Newfag

>>30275284
paying 15% interest in 100 billion vs 1.5% on 30 trillion is a little bit different anon

>>30275536
>gold

>>30275448
Fef
I mean it's not entirely wrong but its not a very indebth analysis

>>30275024
Why Bitcoin over just staying in chainlink? It’s the same asset class

>>30275368
jerome had to repeatedly deny that he was raising interest rates anytime. Because even a whiff of that happening will kill everything.

>>30275427
I think they will do it at some point in the future and all of jeromes, bidens and pelosis friends already know the exact date that will be

>>30275284
in context though

>>30275473
I'm a tranny and I have a massive stockpile of estrogen. That shit is dirt cheap, fool

>>30275670

Chainlink is a bubble. Bitcoin is going to >$1,000,000.

>>30274611
he should just buy a few gold coins, thatll give him a nice house when hyperinflation hits, at a fraction of what his downpayment would be today.

>>30275655
>indebth analysis
I'll anal your ysis in depth if you know what I mean.

>>30275718
>Because even a whiff of that happening will kill everything.
They're supposed to go up at some point, you know.

>>30275887
Kek. LINK will flip BTC soon, Citi bank said so.

>>30276016
this

>>30275069

>>30276098
based and lel

>>30273420
I can't find this shitcoin on CMC!

>>30276060
This just means the citibank crypto dude lurks here

>>30276965
>This just means I'm seething and my butt hurts

tru

>>30276060

Oh shit, CITIBANK? Well, guess I better flip my entire net worth to link... Link is fine, but are their link futures? Is there upcoming link etfs? Are S&P500 companies converting their cash holdings to link? Bitcoin is becoming the world reserve currency, all global trade will be denominated in bitcoin in a few years, not link. I rode link from 45 cents to $3.50, sold half and sold most of the rest around $24. It just mooned so much all ready. But bitcoin is a different class. We already made our money on link.

>>30278076
When meds go untaken.

>>30278076
This guy is salty he sold early

>>30273420
CME gap - bearish

>>30271514
Just reminding the planet that when we fart, they flinch, and there’s nothing they can do about it

>>30276060
>may
>could
>two more weeks!