/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>29907834
Argentina has the only decent land on that entire Godforsaken continent and they only managed to be Argentina with it.

>>29908312

Funny thing is that Argentina used to be incredibly rich until Peron came along. It was a first world, first rate country. I'm honestly afraid we will all end up like Argentina at this rate.

>>29908586
We might, but we might not.

>>29907834
Venezuela actually accepts BTC for food purchases in some businesses. They'd save largely by transferring to using a purchase medium that doesn't have BTC's transaction fees, namely something like $YUM

>>29909331
considering you have niggers, spics, tyranny, election fraud, corruption, etc... it might just be too late already.
deagel.com
at least my country (chile) seems to survive the apocalypse it seems.

>>29908586
Argentina was as shithole for regular people. Only rich feudal lords had it good. Peron saved it and ruined it later.
Also Peron was natsoc thats the "third path" the article talks about.

>>29907834
what people like you never understand is that the US is the reserve currency. they can do things shitty little countries like Argentina can't.

Also, Venezeula would be doing a lot better if the US didn't impose sanctions on it. if socialism was so shitty, I wonder why we need to impose economic sanctions on it for it to fail. hmmmm

I'm really curious why in Argentina it happened this way, while in Japan (same printing / spending policies) it happened the complete opposite. Any theory behind this?

>>29910054
You will fall.

>>29910522

>US is the reserve currency
Works as long as people have faith in it. US isn't the unchallenged superpower it once was anymore.

>if socialism was so shitty
Meh you can make the point about massive borrowing to cope with lagging growth about all governments, not just socialists. Socialist regimes tended to buckle first though.

>>29910797

Has to do with how money enters the system. If you wipe away bank debt, it's diferent than if you give normal people stimulus checks. If you just start throwing money at goods, then you get huge inflation. QE doesn't really work like that. The problem is that we're now getting a situation where the Fed WANTS inflation to happen to inflate away dollar-denominated debt. So they will have less and less of a problem throwing money at goods. Japan has a similar rate conundrum as the US, btw.

>>29907834
Sounds like Canada under Trudeau.

>>29911242
Peron was natsoc. Capitalist powers did all they could to make it fail and later it was apropiated by actual leftists socialists to give it the final blow. We are now divided between globohomo corporationism and globohomo socialism (also corporationist).

>>29911447

Dunno man, he didn't have racial theories right. Imo more of a generic strongman that liked to strut around like Mussolini and throw money at everything. The fact that everyone can claim to be a Peronist seems to show he was at least not a consistent thinker.

>We are now divided between globohomo corporationism and globohomo socialism (also corporationist).

Aren't we all.

>>29910054
>he thinks we will survive
If you don't know Luksic in person then you are as good as someone from a godforsaken pobla in Puente Alto

>>29911242
>If you just start throwing money at goods, then you get huge inflation
Reminds me of that USDA anon thread. Also pic related, included in the latest American Rescue Bill or whatever its called.
full text here:
https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/1319/text
Spending money on a lot of other shit as well.
In Argentina I know they spent a lot on public utilities / infrastructure that was later privatized by the IMF. I know they also did a LOT of social gibs programs. Did these both contribute to their monetary situation?
Japan did a lot of fiscal spending too. Need to deep dive I guess.

>>29910797
My theory: economy is mostly ad-hoc theory and thus not able to actually predict much. You find that particulat occurrence curious only because you expected it to follow some arbitrary unproven model and it didn't/doesn't.

>>29911447
>globohomo corporationism and globohomo socialism
sounds pretty based to me

>>29910797
Japan still has a massive trade surplus and domestic saving. That's what funds govt spending and thus debt.
USA has twin deficits (trade and budget deficits) and negative net national savings

>>29911819
True. Models are the biggest memes.

I think this >>29912196 is right. From just a quick glance
Argentina:
>corruption
>majority of gibs to unproductive recipients
>deficits with outside accounts

Japan:
>100 hour work week
>conservative saving culture (biz and private)
>technologically advanced
>gov spending on even more tech advancement
>global creditor

>>29911755

Well for inflation to happen, you either need a lack of supply or costlier supply, or persistently too high demand. If your shelves are empty for a week you may not raise your prices. Likewise, if business hums along with a bit more money greasing the wheels, nothing may happen.

The problem is when you are either insecure about your ability to meet demand in a ground down economy where your product isn't coming in; or when there's simply so much money thrown at you that you have no way to fill orders.

You see that a lot of it has to do with faith in the economy. In a good, growing economy gibs have a much smaller chance of driving up the price. In a wounded economy with long-term insecurity about supply-increases, you're much more likely to see big inflation.

So my guess (and it's a guess) is that Argentina was in a riskier spot because there was more insecurity to start with.

>>29912471

>Models are the biggest memes.

Idk man I think you can still stick with a few general psychological rules.

>>29912196
Now comparing Japs to the US...
Japan's budget is generally
>30% social security
>30% education military other
>25% debt servicing
>15% local allocation

US for 2021
>60% social security / medicaid / medicare, mandated benefits...
>15% military (more than half of this is retirement and benefits)
>15% Human Services, Education, and Urban Development
>10% debt servicing

Yea. I'm leaning more towards Argentina here.

MMT

>>29912663
I get the cost push inflation but what about the 0% interest "free money" environment? I think that makes the base economy in the US very insecure. Businesses can and do use the free money to pad their revenues, do stock buybacks, their "productivity" is just financed at 0%, free debt in place of savings, etc. When rates start to rise, no more free money, so productivity has to actually exist and in order to maintain margins, step one is to increase prices.
>producer increases for the manufacturer
>manufacturer increases for the wholesaler
>increases down and down the chain
The consumercuck is paying exponentially higher prices. Higher rates are a sign of inflation expectations, but they might create the inflation feedback loop.

I guess the comparison is much more like Argentina's centralized economy. Borrowing and spending at low rates, defaulting too many times, can't get low rates anymore, and its all fugged.

>>29914220

I agree, it creates an environment of gigantic moral hazard and makes the economy very fragile.

The fragility, in my mind, is this: money moves or stays. It can go into stocks, commodities, goods, etc. By lowering rates and locking down the economy, you're essentially giving all that money one way to go. Bonds are not attractive, savings are shit, and nobody buys much. So stocks are pumped up artificially. Plus there is no incentive so save but people do want to take on debt. As the fed promises to keep rates low and pump money around, it seems the situation has to last forever.

But, as the bond balloon, savings balloon etc deflate and the stock balloon inflates, it stands to reason that all that money will be pumped out as soon as goods, savings or bonds get more attractive again. That's when you get a panic and why people freak out as soon as bonds go up even 1%. Fed doesn't want a stock market panic because that'd mean a lot of businesses would topple (like in 2000), but now we have stocks with pointlessly high valuations, worthless savings, and ever increasing debt.

>The consumercuck is paying exponentially higher prices. Higher rates are a sign of inflation expectations, but they might create the inflation feedback loop.

Posted about this before, but the feds only hope now is to inflate the debt away. Maybe wages will rise in tow but savings will end up completely worthless. USGOV can't pay its debt at a 5% rate (it would be 50% of revenue)

>>29910125
>Argentina was as shithole for regular people. Only rich feudal lords had it good.
Not it wasn't you fucking retard. There was inequality the world over back then. The difference is the rest of the world managed to resolve the issue without trying to destroy the "other" half of the country like Peron did. Peron was a big promoter of brown migration to the country too, because he knew nigger retards would always vote for him if he did. Nigger retards vote Peronism even today, even when they live in cardboard huts with mud streets with broken down hospitals and schools they'll still vote for Peronism decade after decade because they are niggers and that's what niggers do.

>>29914220

Btw I think that what supports my point about balloon inflation and debt attractiveness is the ridiculous amount of margin in the stock market, look it up

>>29908586
Instead of worrying, if you're under 40 you should just enjoy the remainder of your youth and if you're over 40 you should build a bunker in the woods to prepare for the happening.

>>29915068

Not bad advice, if money is worthless soon you might as well spend it.

>>29914922
>as the savings balloon deflates
Checked but aren't savings and money-market balances also at all time highs? To me it looks like smart money is waiting for an asset bubble to pop, so they can swoop in and acquire all the equities, real estate, and small biz assets for CHEAP. Same playbook the IMF ran in Argentina to privatize all their publicly built enterprises. Same thing happening in Ukraine right now.
Come to think of it, this happened in the US in 2008. Dipshits took out mortgages, then foreclosed, then a real estate firm with cash bought it for 50% discount, turned around and rented it to the former mortgagecucks.
In the 2000s dotcom we had the same thing:
>company uses cheap money to BUILD new tech infrastructure.
>equity crash makes them insolvent.
>smart money buys the infrastructure cheap and turns it into cash flow.
Now we are getting schizo, but could the Fed just be enabling this ultimate asset grab scheme?

>>29910522
>Venezeula would be doing a lot better

Venezuela would be doing a lot better if it wasn't ruled by vermins' ideology. The immense wealth generated by petrol profits was shat away on buying people's votes with gibs and state "jobs" while every industry turned obsolete. Instead of investing in modernizing production they've just tacked on a subsidy when something became too expensive to make with the outdated and inefficient production.
Then the price of oil dropped and Venezuela got fucked, because their breakeven was higher than others, and despite the immense reserves the wealth disappeared.

>>29914999
I'm seeing margin debt at around $800 billion, all time high.
Compared to M2 of $20 trillion being used for nothing, and a $10T balance in Commercial Bank cash / tradable securities accounts, doing nothing.

So yea, cheap debt unwinds, banks will own everysing and we WILL eat ze bugs.

argie anon here, peron and the central bank were worse than 2 nukes.
Also right now this country is land of the gibs.

>>29915571

>aren't savings and money-market balances also at all time highs?

My bad anon, that's true. Not everyone is investing.

>could the Fed just be enabling this ultimate asset grab scheme?

There's a VICE docu called Panic where the big 2008 central bankers are interviewed, it's honestly quite good. They're very pissed that people thought they were 'bailing out Wall Street' as they felt they had no choice as the entire economy might collapse.

I think this is the process:
>Dumb easy money created centralized finance structure
>Centralized finance creates huge bubble, fucks up, is about to go bankrupt
>Fed sees centralized finance drag down the economy so they bail everyone out and merge companies, making everything even MORE centralized.
>Centralized finance sees the country is its bitch and learns nothing.

What the fed wants to happen is not so relevant, as long they keep enabling moral hazard to finance and then bail out finance while fucking over normal people, this is the result. Let's just try to make profit of all this.

>>29916124

Yep. Also, normies will learn nothing and give the central bank even more power.

>>29916192

How do you deal with inflation over there? Do people just buy dollars? Gold?

>>29916192

Also, can you confirm that Argentine is indeed white?