/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>29747917
If there's some kind of complete melt-down of the stock market I'm unironically going all on in silver stocks.

>>29747975
Silver future-based or silver miners?
Because if the stock market melts down, don't think that miners will be spared. Especially penny ones.

>>29747917
this crash made me realize that not even financial ruin could bring me down. A shit post here a deadlift there and it will all work out

What's everyone buying during this dip?

I'm doubling down on AAPL, FB, MSFT and then adding some LMT as well.

>>29748498
>implying I have cash left
I bought the last two bull traps

>>29748015
That's my idea. If miners dump then I'm going all in at the bottom. Although that's not a certainty.

>>29748663
Huh. Interesting. Keep in mind that infinite QE was not a thing in 2001, so lessons learned in the dotcom pop will probably not be applicable today.

>Generals are always prepared to fight the last war.

>>29748777
Wouldn't infinite QE pump PMs even harder this time, tho?

I wish LTC would get calm down enough for me to practice my scalping skills on the perpetual futures market. Maybe next week.
>this post was brought to you by bizarro-cmg

>>29750174
You know, I have no idea. I don't think so though.
I believe JPow when he says M1 and M2 does not correlate with inflation at all, and neither do central bank assets.
Gold by definition has a zero yield, and even treasuries are better than that. So as long as inflation is below or at around inflation, there is absolutely zero sense in going gold.

Gold miner stocks on the other hand will pump as fuck along with the general market.

Do I try and buy cheapies? C is looking good for me to increase my stake (after buying the bottom yesterday). Also PEP.

I guess it all depends on if the market doesn't shit itself over bond yields again.

I think we will see some green today.
I wanna be comfy.

I bought SQQQ and SPXU today. How fucked am I?

>>29751547
There is literally no way to tell.

I'm building up my cash position to pick up cheapies

>>29751547
What's the appeal of SQQQ? I see that even during the March crash it went only 77% up, given a perfect buy/sell timing.
Maybe you'll see some gains, but be sure to define a reasonable price target.

I hope you all collect some good gains today. I was itching to trade yesterday but didn't as my core strategy only works M/W/F. I need to make some breakfast and meditate before the market opens so that I can get in that emotionless state of mind that I need.

>>29750321
They will manipulate the price no matter what so that gold goes down when everything else is crashing. Absolute clown world.

Wtf is happening to the 10 year?

Comfy morning, but $DASH put spreads on Feb 16th at the peak, all are deep ITM and going to cash them out this morning, it's a good day.

A SPY straddle in the 1st couple minutes is probably a good safe scalp play today

>>29747975
So I have PSLV, AXU, HL. Are there any good ETFS?
>>29748015

>>29752428
buying or selling?

It's too late for MARA or RIOT puts right?

Commerce Department released the report for January economic data.
Main takeaways
>Personal income up 10% (beating the estimated 9.5%)
>Consumers spending up 2.4% (estimated 2.5%)
These are largely attributed to the $600 stimi checks
>Personal Consumer Expenditures Price Index (what the Fed uses for inflation) was up 0.2% on the month
>Comes out to 1.5% YoY, matching the Dow Jones estimate

tl;dr The report says that consumer spending is up and inflation is down.

>>29754037
yep everythings looking great. everykike knows they threw savings into supply to hide that it was going parabolic anyways.

>>29754037
>asset inflation measn consumer inflation
Okay, imagine the following scenario:
XYZ company, 1000000 outstanding shares.
Share price is $1, daily volume is 1K
Let's say you and I start trading one day:
>I sell you 300 shares at $1.1
>You sell it back at $1.2, since the price increased
>I sell it back again (profit taking) 300 shares at $1.5
>You sell it back at $1.6
>Trading day closes.
-390 + 480
You basically gave me $90
The stock ownership didn't change
The company market cap increased by $1M.
Where did the $1M come from?
Did it cause inflation?

You can also imagine the same scenario in reverse. That will answer the "where did all the money go" question. It never existed. Market caps are not real in this sense.
M1, M2 and asset prices do not correlate with CPI.

>>29754037
This demosntrates the problem with stimmies.
The FED does QE, so it just pumps the bond market. It never really leaves the asset market, but gets thrown into stocks and then back to bank reserves.

The stimmy goes directly out to the economy, and circulates for way more time, increasing money velocity (the only thing that really matters) driving prices up.

>>29754568
Are you stupid? Are you just Ctrl+Fing for buzzwords and responding with your own dumbfuck beliefs?

Inflation is down. Spending is up. Take the W.

>>29754856
>spending is up
So is production. And spending is not really that much up. Do you even microeconomics?

>ARKK and ARKG are up
Is it finally over?

>>29754975
I'm just reading the fucking report that just came out.

>>29752493
I have SILJ for this
also, what's up with BUD? did they finally admit to bottling actual pisswater?

I've got $100 I want to invest into a stock based on ticker alone.
Any suggestions?
If no one can top GAYMF, I'm buying 100-200 shares depending on the dump today.

>>29755419
I don't know what you're getting at. I know inflation is down. I just wanted to illustrate that even though asset prices are sky fucking high, inflation is not caused by QE, it's casued by govt spending.

>>29755294
I hope so brother

>>29755294
>>29755646
It looked the same last Friday. Also on Wednesday.

>>29755541
Inflation has been a mystery. Govt has been running deficits for most of my lifetime, and yet inflation has been eeriely MIA for years.

Your thesis would get at why the printer isn't as bad as bond markets seem to believe, but I digress.
The market is open and the line is going up. My monkey brain can only process so many things at once.

Looks like I should've taken profits on ISWH on Wednesday, lads.

>>29747917
>s m g already split
Every damn open

Things are no so bad, I haven't lost much money

That means everything is going to dump hard in one hour, right?

Thread is much /comfier/ today than it was yesterday :)

comfybros, can I get a fren to give it to me in simple english the pros and cons about long term holding a 3x leveraged ETF like SOXL? I know the expense ratio is high and there is a risk of volatility decay, but realistically for a guy with 2,000 bucks does it really matter for holding for years?

>>29755510
I hold some PHAG for this reason.

>>29756200
I mean.. it's a penny stock anon. It will most likely fly all over the place until it's actually somewhat "established", especially now when its price action will correlate with Bitcoin aswell

>>29758332
If you really don't plan to cash out in 3 years, you should be okay. Also keep in mind that we may reach the top of the asset bubble anyy minute now (tm), and you'll have to hold for 5 years after the top.

Pros: better yield
Cons: huge drawdowns, so if you don't have the stomach for it, or you need cash during a dip, you'll lose a ton of money.

can still buy the NDM dip

Ah those niggers hit my stops again and forced a sale

So is today going to be a crab day until eod? And then power hour or sour hour sets the tone for next week?

>>29758592
I see, and I also see based on your pic 2x leverage is "optimal"....I'm assuming because it's a middle ground between the 1x and 3x?

>>29758332
I don't know what $2,000 is to you.
Just imagine if it was gone, is your life over?
I put as much into SOXL and TQQQ as I can until I get to a point where I'd be devastated if it went to 0. The more wealth I get, the more I put into leverage, nominally and proportionately. My house is a 5% downpayment so that's 20 times leveraged for example. Personally I think semiconductors and big tech are just as reliable as housing.

I justed myself today

>>29758804
>because it's a middle ground between the 1x and 3x?
It's a bit more involved than that. It's a compromise between better yield and more beta slippage. As you can see, SP500 has way less beta (and I guess better Sharpe ratio), so you can get away with more leverage.
The Nikkei has been crabbing for 30 years, so beta slippage is pretty bad there.

CLF calls are looking pretty juicy desu

>>29758804
Look at crabby months, like September October 2020, sometimes QQQ and QLD outperform TQQQ because 2x suffers less volatility decay and 1x suffers none.
The ddnums article on leveraged ETFs basically says there's enough of those crabby periods that 2x leverage is better.
That's only looking at past performance though, 3x might be better for this decade but then again maybe not.

SERIOUSLY WHAT THE FUCK it was going so good and then drops 200 points in 30 mins

>>29759328
Goy trap

>>29759328
You weren't watching TLT?

You should've been watching TLT.

>>29759328
Haha, yes. Let's fucking go

>>29748498
Nothing. Waiting for the bottom

>>29755510
You probably already know UUUU, but how about CHAD?

Where my SPAC bros at? Comfy here sitting near $10 averages.

>>29748498
I've got some limit buys spread out on my current holdings.

PEP is tempting me with its stability...

>>29759488
Nice.

I tried TSLA weeklies once and man the IV made holding nerve-wracking.

>Weds
>buy at 1.9
>spikes to 8 by afternoon
>4 by close
>hodl
>Thurs
>starts at 1.5
>spikes to 5
>I sell here
>goes to 3
>15 by eod
>Fri
>goes to 30
>expires at 15

>>29759486
>You should've been watching TLT.
Why?

>>29759908
That's why I try to hold long(ish) term options for it, not weeklies. The IV crushes are absolutely brutal.
I have some profit taking limit sells in place for these random spikes. It's always pretty nice. I just rebuy them after the spike.

>>29759917
Because the market is reacting to treasury yield (or at least that's what morning traders think).

Are drone deliveries ever going to be real.

i swear to fucking god if this is really a bear flag and we're going to at lesat 12300 i'll kms

>>29759917
Once the 10 year goes above 1.5%, there will be no stop on Mr. Powell's Wild Ride.

>>29760186
No its literally stupid and gay and they should've spent money investing in these things

I doubled down on UDOW am I retarded?
Unlike my conservative TQQQ/SOXL port this is a temporary hold.

>>29760210
exactly they will start buying bonds on a scale never seen before. they should do that now instead of giving 1400 checks to fucking niggers and mutts

>>29758470
Yeah, I know. Just trying to hang onto every scrap of gains right now.

>100 point 5 minute candle

holy fuck STOP IT

Man why didn't I buy puts this morning

>>29759839
if DMYI goes below 12 I'll go in

I know its just retards buying the dip, and then options whales piggybacking on volatility to push the ask price and buy up your stops, but it really makes your wanna put on some tinfoil.

I can see why Robinhood traders fall for the market manipulation meme

The smart thing to do is put a custom condition to submit the order at the price your stop limit would be set at, but that takes too long when volatility is as crazy as it is today, if the market bounces or sinks you could lose like 40% of your gain in 3 seconds.

>>29760452
>he doesn't know that that's when you're supposed to buy/scalp

The second you go to post a pinkjak is the best second to buy.

Yep, it's another "pretend I don't even know what investing is, let alone have a funded account" day.

>>29760866
my hands arent that fast and i have no money now

I'm scared anons. My dreams of making it for my family and I, well the dream keeps having hurdles thrown in the way.

>stock goes up
>market wide dump
>doesnt recover as fast as market

>stock goes up hard
>market wide hard dump
>oh wow it lasted a few days before losing the gains

This is so tiresome guys. It's almost like these hurdles keep appearing every few months to stop stocks from even being able to crab for a bit and let me have a breather. Even when it crabs the pump is short lived while the dumps effects persist long after the intil dump. Pumps only seem to stick if it pumped and stayed up there long enough.

Aaaaaaaaaaaaa at this rate how am I gonna comfily stay out of the wage cage?

I didnt even buy the top this time. In fact I bought the dip over a month ago. Getting real mad that rate unrealized gains turn into realized gains seems to be lower than the rate of unrealized losses that turn into realized losses.

>>29759851
Nothing has been triggered yet. Nothing has come within 25¢ of my limit.

>>29760866
90% of day traders lose money

>>29761009
Just buy good companies at good prices and ride the waves.
The stock market is a long term investment, not a source of income.

>>29761080
90% of day traders suck because they think markets can be beat with mathematics. Day trading is a right brain activity.

NOW A 100 POINT GREEN 5 MINUTE CANDLE WTF

>>29761009
I'm in the same boat fren
I've been trying to get by with just never selling but ive ended up back where I've started. I think I'm going to just start selling whenever I've got a decent profit, even if that means giving up a lot of potential gain

>>29747917
How do I become comfy lads? I'm a poorfag with lower 4 digits ands my MACD strategy made me 4% in stock market and 15% in crypto, but that has all dwindled to 1% a month gains at the start of this year. What do I do guys?

>>29761404
Show me one scalper with a public verifiable track record.

>>29761439
The second most common occupational hazard for traders is whiplash.

/smg/ seems to be at peak fear today, so I bought.
Feeling pretty bullish right now desu

>>29761439
I'm staying cash today, this volatility is crazy

>>29761439

>>29761562
Is the first one hanging?

>>29761535
I guess this is just evidence that your strategy doesn't actually work consistantly and you should just DCA into an index ETF.

>managed to average down at the bottom and even out my losses
No green but no red

>>29761591
Fearful when /smg/ is greedy
Greedy when /smg/ is fearful

>>29747917
Sold everything. Feels good.

>>29761538
The only type of person that publicly posts their trades is the type of person that sucks so much they're trying to become an "analyst"

>>29761528
>but ive ended up back where I've started
Exactly. Bought some stuff a month ago. Slight profit on one and the other was at a loss when i last looked. Took time to it to get so high only for it to dump most of those gains in a shorter amount of time.

>>29761535
MACD is useless. Trend following doesn't work.

lemme get a $7.50 fill on my 2023 KTOS 27.50 call

>Solar going up
>Oil is down
Always have a backup plan I guess

>>29761707
Also, AHT is still cheap

>>29761786
So you're admitting that no, you can't find even one (1) scalper in the world with a publicly verifiable track record.

>>29761815
I share you a secret
>when price goes brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr up
thats real
>when price goes ka thunk down
that's fake

and vice versa.

Oilchads we are back

>>29761855
KTOS came the closest today on tripping one of my limit buys.

>>29761634
lol yup

>>29761978
Yes because math nerds are almost always terrible and math nerds are among the only ones who don't get filtered immediately by the numerology of day trading.
That's why your animalistic instinct of maximum "PANIC!" is a good buy indicator for a scalp

>>29762254
So you have no proof that day trading can be profitable.

>>29760452
>>29761439
>tfw you offload your weekly puts at a (local at least) minimum

>>29762397
Just the past 2-3 years of my life.

>>29762469
>two to three
kek

>>29761591
>>29761722
/smg/ has been peak fear since last week at least.
>I tried to link wojakindex
>it's down
>mfw

>>29748130
Unfathomably based

>>29762507
you've misunderstood, it is two minus three. that anon has spent -1 years of their life, thus stating that they are trapped for the next year in daytrading

>>29762507
Well I've made the equivalent of 20 years of waging.

>>29762469
>still no evidence

tfw down 370k last 3 days

>>29762647
based non-Euclidean outside the box inside the box thinking

>>29762713
>dox yourself

God, how did I go from diversified sub 7k portfolio to gambling with 12k in individual stocks

Oh wait, I hit home with AMC and got addicted to gambling

>>29752183
i was right and the moron calling me stupid last night was wrong

>>29755294
i put a buy limit at 90 for arkg so of course it's over AHHH

>>29762818
Yes I'm sure you're the only profitable day trader in the world and the only way you could possibly prove it works is posting your name and account number

Do you think they realize they're just trading between themselves yet?

>>29762935
Are you literally denying the reality that people have made money day trading?

You guys picking up any good cheapies today, or are you mostly just riding out this shitshow?

>>29763109
bought into the SOXL dip yet again

>>29763023
>Are you literally denying the reality that people have made money playing the slot machines at the casino?

>>29761678
Yeah, I'll just have to adapt. Don't want to just DCA into index ETFs since I actually have the time to keep track of the graphs throughout the day/week, so I would like to be more active with my money since I might as well.

>>29763172
Pretty shit managed casino when you average 30 wins per 1 loss.

>>29763109
buying flt.v

>>29763109
Bought the past 4 days (except the bull trap). Put plenty into SOXL. Not buying more unless i see some deep, deep red

>>29763109
If it dips a second time, I'll probably end averaging down on a few things.

>>29763109
i can't see a good reason for BUD to drop so far in the past few days, so if it goes below my average i'll consider picking up more

>>29761815
Well, at least it worked for a while for me, but not anymore sadly. Have to try and find something else now. Any suggestions?

>>29763172
sour grapes are not comfy anon

>>29762397
If you're looking at stats alone, it never says "100% of day traders end up losing money", it's usually in the 80-90% bracket, which yes.. means there's day traders that are profitable. The thing is though, those are most likely professionals with a decade+ of experience which most normal people will never achieve because they're too lazy to actually learn new things, especially as they get older.. so for them it's not actually day trading, it's just pure gambling (which as we all know leads to you losing money 99% of the time)

>>29763275
You can have a 30/1 loss ratio if your average loss is 30 times bigger than your average win

What do you guys think of FIZZ? Terry Davis predicted something about FIZZ.

>>29763217
> time to keep track of the graphs throughout the day/week
Nah, this is not the way to do it. Everyone trades based on price action, you will never have an edge there. You have to do somewhat deep research to have an actual edge. If you don't do that, all data you base your actions on will be priced in.
Watch:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=72Pq5zKEi_g&t=600s

Example: if you can more accurately predict Phase 3 results of a biomeme than the market (not that ard), you can make a lot of money. If you're just looking a price, you will spam "WHERE IS CRBP SHILL, I JUST WANT TO TALK".

>>29763448
Not to mention all the HFT and Quant firms with preeetty advanced algorithms. Unless you are very experience, there is no fucking way you actually beat those. All the information is arbitraged away from the data (the price graphs) the time it displays on your monitor.

>>29761982
I mean yeah, but just DCAing into index ETFs seems like a waste of potential. I have time to sit and watch graphs in the week, so I was hoping to be able to utilize this ability in a profitable way.

What are the chances this is a bull trap?

>>29760351
I really want to see how real dogs react to shit like this. Imagine this dropping your mail off while the neighborhood chihuahua is losing its mind

>>29763448
You can probably be profitable as a day trader buying SPY at the open and selling at the close
It's just that you're gonna make less money than if you bought and hold because of the spread

>>29763432
It's not sour grapes
Day trading is only encouraged as a real way to make money by scammers
There are lots of well known people who got rich off investing. Where are all the rich day traders?
Day trading might have worked in the 70s, now the patterns are all arbitraged away by bots that trade for free or with a minimal spread compared to retail

>>29763825
Zoom out.

>>29763825
the same as if this were a bear trap

>>29763672
Nobody is going to beat the algos my man, no human made of flesh and blood at least. Well I suppose there might be the one in a million genius capable of creating his own but even then he's at material disadvantage.

>>29763672
Don't beat them just learn how to see them and ride their tips.

>>29763825
does it matter? you DID already buy the dip, right anon? you werent trying to time the bottom, right anon?

>>29763972
What if there are bots riding other bots and arbitraging away that too? You cannot win unless you have more information than the bots.
Watch the Lynch video in >>29763524

>>29763890
>Where are all the rich day traders?
Day trading at higher volumes gets very messy because of liquidity issues. There's kinda a soft bottleneck.

Also successful day traders are antisocial virgins, so how would you hear about them getting rich anyways?

>>29763973
I bought the dip on Monday and it kept going down

>>29763972
So who are you beating?

there is nothing more comfy than swing trading SNDL all week for consistent yet smallish gains each time

>>29763524
>if you can more accurately predict Phase 3 results of a biomeme than the market (not that ard), you can make a lot of money
I'm surprised these aren't priced in. A lot of the time drugs in question are in use elsewhere

>>29763524
Thanks anon, I'll give it a watch. I'm just trying to figure something out since I have the "any moment sitting on my hands could be a money making moment instead" kind of deal. I have all this time but no working strategy yet, and that bothers me. Makes me feel like I'm missing opportunities and all that.

>>29764108
>>29764186
Are you guys arguing about something which clearly neither of you will change your mind about? Surely you see the futility in that

Please tell me it's over.

>>29764186
Probably other dumb money, most likely.

I did once sell the absolute highest price on the street for for a set of Barrick call options that expired that same day. That was pretty neat.

>>29764108
You're competing with thousands of professional traders and quants with millions of dollars each for that liquidity.
If a strategy can pay 100k per year then it's profitable to pay somebody to exploit it.
So I'm very skeptical when people claim the reason there aren't rich day traders is that they're constrained by liquidity.

>>29764256

>>29763890
>It's not sour grapes
you seem extremely intent on arguing something which is very likely not true on the face of it
no one is saying "lots of daytraders make money," they're disagreeing with your broad assertion that "all daytraders lose money"
blanket statements like that are almost never completely correct, so your insistence that it must be the case tells me that you *need* it to be the case for some reason
maybe there's another reason you don't want to believe a profitable daytrader is possible, but 'sour grapes' seems like a simple and straightforward explanation

>>29764365
I'm talking about clinical-stage companies with completely new drugs. But yeah, predicitng those is not that hard either, based on Phase 1-2 information, and comparison to similar drugs.
I guess traders and institutions don't do that deep of an analysis.

>>29764384
You should start deep research instead of trying to base all your decisions on price actions. You can spend all your time doing research.

What's this? PEP is approaching my buy limit?

$30k cash, wat do

>>29764468
When the dumb money places an order it goes through Citadel and other market makers. They would trade against it and thus cancel the effect of the order on the market if they think they can turn a profit.

>>29764794

>>29764794
Stay in cash until JPow brings the Treasury yields under control.

looks bearish all of the sudden

>>29764450
There's a gap in the mid 370s of SPY.
>>29764486
100k is like skimming 0.00000001% of the total transactional liquidity that flows through the market.

And 500 dollars a day is the easiest shit ever. Especially if you're just buying high volumes of strangles.

The likelihood of you buying the absolute top of an asset is the same as the likelihood of timing a trade and paying the lowest possible price.

Just sell when you in the green.

>>29764847
I'm pretty sure you are being autistic on purpose now.

>>29764906
>t. bullmarket genius

I am getting absolutely reamed today. Keep thinking about buying this dip but what the fuck is going on with the bond market?

>>29764794
bet it all on black

I want my LTC to make a profit so I can reinvest in big boy tokens. My buy-in was $192 so I’m about a week or two away from getting to sell out. Any of you frens have advice for a newcomer to Crypto? I’m thinking ADA and BNB if it’s an altcoin market.

Just sold an AAPL $124c to see if i could on mobile (wouldnt let me on desktop) while forgetting i had a good faith violation on the account. Only $0.93 in settled funds. So im hoping we dump today, sorry lads

>>29765179
Hate that.

That happened to me in September. I had perfectly predicted that AAPL/TSLA induced selloff but I couldn't buy puts.
I told one of my econ friends from college what I thought was gonna happen and he made like 50k that day.

>>29764665
It's very likely true anon. I've seen time and time again people who claim to be profitable doing intraday trading open accounts on those sites that publicly track your trades and they all inevitably blow up after a couple months or years.
People trying to do over leveraged short term trading is the number one reason retail traders lose money, and the brokers profit from it.
This guy explains it well
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L7G0OfJUON8

>>29764730
Oh I do try to get in what I can on research. My reduced rate of monthly growth actually isn't because of losses averaging it down its just things that were highly profitable just aren't really anymore. Sadly, most of this graph checking time is pulling out my phone periodically at work and indeed looking at the price action. I thought I was lucky finding a job where they were ok with me doing that, so I do hope I can use it for something, but...

>>29765469
They are all like
>Lol anon, there's no way I'd flip heads 10 times, right? Easy money.

>>29764906
>100k is like skimming 0.00000001% of the total transactional liquidity that flows through the market.
I agree. And that's why the liquidity excuse is bullshit, especially on highly liquid assets like the indexes. If you can't make at least tens of millions of dollars day trading then how can ten different people make 1 million dollars day trading? There are only so many possible edges you could exploit. And Medallion and other similar quant funds are likely exploiting them all until they disappear. They don't trade just one strategy, they collect all the strategies with an edge they can find and add them to their portfolio.

>The likelihood of you buying the absolute top of an asset is the same as the likelihood of timing a trade and paying the lowest possible price.
So you're basically admitting you don't have an edge and just hope and pray that the price goes your way and you don't blow up your account.

>>29765707
Unironically a great strategy. LTCM fucked up because their purchases were affecting the market.

>>29765469
maybe an analogy would help
if all twitch streamers can't beat a game, does that mean all players of the game are unable to complete it?

>>29763825
Bull traps are a type of dip

>>29765459
so what did happen? I saw them go down in my peripheral vision but I ignore tech stocks

>>29765897
Depends
In this case it's a game with a high degree of RNG

>>29765897
>twitch streamers
After reading this I assume that most if not all of you are under the age of 25 and I am happy I never take advice from /biz/

>all these stocks
>I have a finite amount of $

Why does it have to be this way bros?

>>29766201
pick the best stock

>>29766201
just call up your greatest ally and get a loan

>>29766163
>not picking up the veiled insult

>>29766201
just buy one of every stock. it's a good way to hedge your bets

>>29765897
Let's go with a different analogy.
I flip a coin 5 times. If all are heads, you win 20x your money.
Out of 100 people, around 3 will win. These are your "succesful daytraders".
Is it profitable to play? Would you recommend it?

>Hint: it is for me.
>Sell covered calls instead

>>29766100
if you're familiar w/ things like XCOM or EU4 you should know it's extremely difficult but not impossible

>>29765850
My whole original point is that there is no strategy to day trading because its a game/art/sport etc.

The reason people don't understand this why most people fail.
You're totally underestimating the human brain's ability to solve puzzles. Its something no algo can ever beat (yet)

Notice how I'm not doing the usual: "This One Easy Trick and You can Make $1000 a Day Working From Home"! spiel. I'm just explaining how I make money day trading to anyone with a passing interest because I wish someone had told me the same things when I first started trading so I wouldn't have lost most of my money chasing shit like MACD like a turbo autist.

>>29766443
>Is it profitable to play? Would you recommend it?
depends on what the person is looking for
but you've already acknowledged the only point i cared to make, which is that not all of those 100 people lose their money

>>29766353
Where was the insult? You made a shitty analogy about hedgefunds/retailers with twitch.
>inb4 it was all a dream

I guess the market has warmed to the prospect of 1.5% yield on the 10yr

Before we go any further, if you cannot correctly solve pic related, you should just DCA into SPY and leave it at that.

>>29766600
>not all of those 100 people lose their money
Not all of them lost money... yet. They all will eventually. You cannot escape statistics.

>>29766469
The question is whether you can keep playing the game for 30 years and not lose
Especially if you're using large amounts of leverage, which the vast majority of intraday traders do

>>29766747
>inb4 1.6% before EOD

>>29766045
Classic overheat plain and simply. Indexes were rising straight up 1%-2% every single day for a week.
Either traders believed retail would fomo into AAPL and TSLA at lower prices, or traders believed other traders would believe that and continued driving up and up the price.

Then Elon Musk's brother sold 5 million dollars of TSLA stock immediately at open and all hell broke loose.

Well that's my best explanation for it.

>>29766631
>the implication being that i had to use an analogy about twitch streamers for the point to be understood
you understood the part about looking down on twitch streamers at least

>>29766443
No it's not profitable
The expected payout of your game is 0.6

>>29766867
It would make up for not buying the dip earlier.

>>29766941
>it all makes sense now

>>29767093
good, i was worried about you for a second

>>29766506
Ok show us your equity curve then

>leave computer
>stocks go up
>come back
>starts tanking again

DIE AAPL DIE
SAVE MY RETARDED COVERED CALL

>>29767278
bros...

>>29766941
Oh yes I'm sure it's me and not you who can't discuss trading on a real level and has to deal in shitty gaming analogies

>>29766784
>If you can't solve the Monty Hall problem, don't even bother researching value plays, harvesting theta, and using leverage conservatively
What if I can solve it but it takes a lot of effort and really pisses me off every time

>>29767387
Its a crab market

>>29767492
It's a special kind of schadenfreude.

>>29767492
kek. I might actually buy some of that CLF depending on how things go.

>>29767492
How much has he lost now? 500k in the last two months?

>>29766784
50%. Half of blue side reverses are blue.

>>29767539
I've known the answer for years now and still refuse to believe the jew-math behind it

>>29767622
-700k, 1.2MM was his top, and he's down even more than he would have had to pay taxes on that

>>29767618
don't, I did fundamental analysis on it and it's not worth the farts out my ass.
>>29767622
i think more like 700K

CLF Tranny is officially a /biz/ legend at this stage

>>29766888
>Elon Musk's brother owns million in TSLA
What the fuck why?
You're not diversified until you have a family wealth approach to diversification.
If I was Musk's brother I would hold SWBI, OLIN, and UVXY
Just like Peter Schiff's son loading up on BTC

>>29767648
Did you study probability theory?

lil boy, stop shilling this trash here
I am not idiot who believes in this shit
I use julswap for juld staking and my wallet brings profit

>>29766784
What if after eliminating the first choice you flipped a coin between the two remaining and picked whether to switch based on that? Would that remove the probabilistic advantage in switching or is switching always the better option?

>>29767539
You can, but you won't be as effective. When I started properly hedging with options and other "high maths" shit, my gains improved considerably.

>>29767660
>I've known the answer for years now and still refuse to believe the jew-math behind it
Same. It becomes a bit easier to understand if you do it with 100 doors, and view the whole scenario from the game show host's perspective.
The fact that doors are opened after your choice matters quite a lot.

>>29767648
Nvm, apparently it's two thirds. The monty hall guy is right.

>>29767648
Choose an ETF, anon.

>>29767898
No. But you can actually test this on paper and a few coin flips in like 20 tries.

>>29768041
well it makes sense
if there was an advantage in the first place no reason adding randomness would make up for ignoring the advantage

>>29767492
john rocker might have had some shit stock picks over the videos, but i think this really vindicated his clear expertise on the trading psychology of the average /smg/ whale
you were right john

>>29767660
Are you dumb? Monty Hall works like this
>If you switch, you need to pick either wrong door at the start (2 in 3 chance)
>If you don't switch, you need to pick the right door at the start (1 in 3 chance)

Which choice (switch or don't switch) gives the bigger number?

>>29767838
I can't but help think it's undervalued, how did you come to your conclusion Anon?

Would someone mind explaining covered calls to me? I'm missing a big chunk of why they're a good idea - I get that you're selling contracts, as you own 100 shares yourself, but it seems like you're betting against someone that the stock won't get as high as they think - so the best idea for a covered call is to put the sell price at a pretty high amount, but not obscene.

I'm not sure I understand at all, but I'm going to have 800 shares, so I better figure out what's going on.

woah wtf

I have 3 shares of SEDG. This is most of the money I own. Average cost of $282.

Green Day?

up 400 points from the low this morning. just hope today isn't fake like wednesday

>>29767754
>>29767838
Good shit. Glad we have someone to replace Baggie, who I haven't seen in a while. Is he dead, or has he just been keeping to the other general?

>>29768733

>he sold covered calls?
>pump the shit out of it

>>29768511
Implied volatility (and so the premium) is almost always higher than actual volatility, so you will win on average.

>>29768664
SolarEdge is a solid company with great products and tons of growth. Absolute value pick.

>>29768998
Did the Fed finally call the printer technician or what?

>>29768838
he's Quasar now

finally it's tech's turn after eating ass all week while banks and energy fly

>>29769146
>>29769146
fresh bread
>>29769146
>>29769146

>>29769187
>250 posts
anon what the fuck are you doing

>>29768998
>Shorting the bottom
Never change /biz/

Baka

>>29769007
Ooooh, that makes a lot of sense, thanks. Guess I gotta go figure out how to enable options trading on my Fidelity account.

>>29769187
based baker bro thanks king!

>>29768423
long story short, it's a company that hasn't managed to generate consistent meaningful earnings. High overheads. It operates in a highly competitive global market for iron with the added disadvantage of regulations. I expect regulations to tighten further under Biden.

The US is a service economy. It would take an enormous effort to return to manufacturing. (Considering comparative advantage, this move would also theoretically be an inefficiency.)

It just doesn't make sense to bet on a dying industry.

>New daily highs for indices
They held the trend. I kind of hope they break it though, I want cheapies and not to mention I only got one fill on futures

>>29767315
>post dick
no u
Why do you keep insisting that stuff doesn't exist unless someone is willing to post about it for strangers on the internet? Do you believe that my balls have hair on them? You sound like a literally autistic person, more of an ass burger than me, even.

>>29769152
Ah thanks, I'd usually ignore tripkids that weren't the bagman, so I didn't pick up on that

>>29769007
>SolarEdge is a solid company with great products and tons of growth. Absolute value pick.
Thanks, I won't ride it out past the ATH but I'll at least hold until it's back to $340. I used to be a 2,000-onaire, now I'm back to being a 1,000-onaire.

>>29769255
I FORGOT I HAD A GOOD FAITH VIOLATION AAAAAAAAA I JUST WANTED A QUICK TRADE

How come bonds are going down if the demand from the fed is still higher than the supply from the treasury?

>>29769313
I am genuinely surprised to see them miss earnings on the last quarter.

>>29769187
kys

>>29769595

>>29769595
>he doesn't know
shoo shoo newfag

>>29769583
Well you can watch them miss their next earnings as well. There are plenty of other stocks to invest in anon

Rat should thinks we should be all in in BABA.

>>29769552
Bond auctions are a mess.

Seems like the bond market is putting some faith in JPOWs talk of lopsided inflation evening things out.

Went in on FTXL today. Semiconductors ought to be safe for the foreseeable future...right?

>>29769531
How do you even achieve good faith violations, guys?
I trade with IBKR, and never have I once had to wait for cash to settle, and I'm pretty sure I did transactions that would violate T+2.
Is it because I was matched internally in IBKR or its MM, and never actually went through the exchange?

>>29770181
>FTXL
I would tell you about BAKA but I think it filters so we're stuck with SOXL

>>29770286
Do you have a margin account?
Good faith is about having settled cash available IIRC

>>29767496
i'm just calling out logical fallacies - if there exists in the history of ever one person who daytraded that stopped with more money then when they started then what you were saying at first was technically wrong
the fact you can't understand that when it's repeated over and over makes me think shitty analogies might be more your speed
anyways i came here to get comfy so i'll just drop it. hope you're tickled with the image of me throwing my account into meme stocks or something.

>>29770299
Too poor to afford a meaningful stack of SOXL and I don't use RH.

>>29770286
fidelity wouldnt let me buy back my iron condor and the put leg expired ITM. I sold the shares for an even larger gain but they didnt even give me a warning, just three GFV and then the ban. Ive been meaning to call then but it’s too late for this short call today

>>29770415
Nah, it's cash. That's the weirdest thing.

>>29762905
based

>>29770560
Well in a week, you can get all the SOXL you want.

>>29768197
I get the tranny's psychology though after being 180% up on BFARF and seeing that go down to 50%. New retail traders get greedy.

>takes three days to approve an options account on Fidelity

whoops, guess I'm not selling those covered calls on SOXL on Monday.

>>29770560
Oh boy have I got news for you, it's splitting 15:1 on Monday

>>29770779
I do believe this slpit will go the way of the AAPL split. There will be a mass buy in with a mass sell off before reestablishing a proper 65$ floor.

>>29770727
That means you'll have time to properly research Covered Options strategies anon. If you don't you can lose a ton of money.
(Key words are implied volatility, gamma and skew)

It really is great (It's like lending out your shares like an apartment, but for 10% a month), but there are some advanced mathematical pitfalls.

the top is in

>>29770779
Well shit. Might pick up a little bag then.

>>29770718
Yeah. the problem with retail traders is they don't understand investing as an art. They don't know how to value businesses. (Every 'investor' friend of mine doesn't even know what DCFs or intrinsic value is). These blind speculative activities are no different to gambling.This is why 99.98% of these people lose money in the long run

>>29771028
I'm trying to figure out how to even place a covered call order on Fidelity right now lol. Robinhood makes it easy, I can't understand this interface at all.

>>29771103
Oh just calm down and have another cup of coffee

>>29761880
What happened nthis days with SP index?, Look at that uniform huge volume

>>29770934
Splits don't really matter after a few weeks, you're right about that. This one matters even less because each of the underlying companies is a huge megacap with its own fundamentals. OTOH I think the extra liquidity will have a big impact on option prices.

>>29771028
How could somebody lose money on a covered call if the strike is at or above cost basis? Unless the underlying dumps?

>>29771380
I joke about disabling the sell button same as the next anon, but opportunity cost is a loss.

>>29771380
Yeah, something like that.
>Buy stock at $10
>Sell a $12 weekly Call for $0.5
>Stock dumps to $5
>Sell a $7 weekly Call for $0.5
>underlying pumps and you get assigned
You will be $2 down. Note that this ewxample is insanely high IV.

>>29771103
I hope so. The morning dip didn't so much for me.

>>29771380
Yeah, as >>29771497 said. If you got $1 while you could've got $2 from simply holding SPY, are you really up $1?

>>29771103
DIE AAPL DIE

>>29771695
where's the "advanced mathematical pitfalls"?

>I am almost out of the red today. I just need OPTI to go back up to .20 and I'll recover yesterday's losses.
The Crab is snipping and snabbing today

>+0.5%
Just barely above the water here lads this is not comfy.

>>29771358
how so?

>>29772067
These kinds of losses don't happen if you know what skew, IV crush, gamma hedging and similar things are. And I'd say gamma hedging is pretty fucking involved.

Elysium awaits
>>29772405

>>29772442
don't link it next time dude

>>29772417
Missing out on a further pump isn't a real loss. Profit is profit. Under your logic every time I think about buying something but don't, take profits early, or don't know about something it's a loss. So we all have millions in imaginary losses then?

Secondly, "sell calls above cost basis" requires basic math and none of what you mentioned.

What's everyone investing in ! I heard mochimo aka $MCM is going huge over biz ! Can you guys let me know ?

>>29772834
The undesirables would've found it sooner or later

>>29766506
>I'm just explaining how I make money day trading to anyone with a passing interest because I wish someone had told me the same things when I first started trading so I wouldn't have lost most of my money chasing shit like MACD like a turbo autist.
Do you have any tips to share then?

>>29772834
Keeping that in mind.

I wonder if this thread's going to live longer or the unfindable one.

>>29772258
There are big bid/ask spreads due to low liquidity, in other words there's not enough people buying and selling to achieve price discovery. If I want to sell calls there aren't enough customers and if I want to buy them I might have to overpay because there aren't enough sellers.
At a $600 pre-split price, the split reduces the amount of underlying represented by a contract on 100 shares from $60,000 to $4,000, I think that will vastly increase the number of people buying and selling SOXL options.

>>29772909
>So we all have millions in imaginary losses then?
Actually, yes.
You should ideally be thining in terms of opportunity cost and NOT cost basis. Cost basis is irrelevant. So even though setting the strike above your basis is a good rule of thumb, and one I use too, it's basically a trap. The market decides whether setting your strike above your basis is profitable, not you.

>>29774738
Selling above cost basis is profitable, period. If a retail trader covered call seller is so concerned about a run up, they can get an OTM call. The point is it's a straightforward strategy and not nearly as complicated as you all are making it.

>>29775135
I bought GME at $8, does that make it
>smarter to hold after $400
>dumber to hold after $400
It's the SAME
You buy your holdings every day, the sooner you realize this the better.

>>29775135
Since you're technically correct though
I should have said
The market decides whether setting your strike above your basis is possible.
Imagine selling covered calls on XOM or something, it's not that hard to see why "strike above cost basis" only works when the market is willing to buy your calls.

>>29775339
That's why you do covered calls on good quality growth stocks you would have invested in anyways. Not shitty pump and dumps.

If you're not comfortable holding you shouldn't be doing a covered call

>>29775683
XOM is a good example though. If I was a wheeler I wouldn't have seen that coming.

There's no easy answer to the underlying dumping if you didn't have puts. You could try trading the covered put stock (selling your shares then selling the same strike put) to scalp extrinsic value if it dumps again. Or doing call credit spreads at a lower strike.