/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>29699779
Fuck off

>>29699779
Why real estate?

>>29699823
You think I'm larping? In the last 60 years, there have only been 3 instances where rising P/E met a rising 10Y yield:

a) 1987 Black Monday
b) Right before the 2000 dotcom crash
c) Today

>>29699779
real estate is a very bad option anon

nice inspect element faggot

1.5% seems very low. What am I missing?

>>29699779
yeah the rate of the spike its whats more concerning

>>29699939
Crypto is only a "safe haven" if you fell for the bullshit peddled by paid shills like Pomp or people who are in too deep like Michael "Fell For Every Bubble" Saylor. If anything, crypto is the OPPOSITE of a safe haven: it's always been a speculative asset, highly inversely correlated to the bond yield. Do what you want with your money, but for me it's time to cash in my 600% gains and get the fuck outta the casino.

>>29700081
your missing the money supply. which is very big

>>29700081
how many trillions upon trillions of dollars of debt their are

>>29700046
>inspect element
ngmi

>>29699779
>will rotate it into good old real estate IRL
Nice LARP, this will take you months, by that time the dollars you hold may very well turn to shit

>>29699779
>rotate it into good old real estate IRL.
you just casually buy a house?

>>29700081
The bond yield is relative, there is no such thing as "low" or "high" by itself. It has to be compared against the national debt to make sense: with the brrrrrr the FED have been doing nonstop, you would expect falling yields. Rising yields is bad fucking news: nobody wants government bonds right now so they keep raising the rates, draining liquidity from speculative markets/assets. "Stacking sats" is something only the boiler room pros want you to believe matters: what REALLY matters is market liquidity, see: Tether.

>>29699779
GME is the market hedge in current year. It will be the only valid currency in 2022.

>>29700046
>maybe if i ignore it it will go away

>>29700152
>get the fuck out
>by buying real estate in a country that's turning into Venezuela
Yeah it will be real valuable in a decade, everyone will want to live in your failed state

>>29700081
You're missing the entirety of M2 money supply. 1.5% on the M2 money is an absurd interest rate for the fed have to pay borrowers back. Which will likely lead to more printing and more borrowing. Till we're wheeling wheelbarrows of money around again

>>29700234
>>29700046
Just check it out for yourself, jesus:
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/TVC-US10Y/

>>29700175
money supply doesn't matter. most of it is stuck in banks that won't lend out. fiscal stimulus makes it into the economy but it compensates for the loss in gdp last year


>>29699947
>>29699823

>>29699779
Exited all my crypto positions except for my core BTC long term cold storage position. Exited 75% of my equities positions with the exceptions of PSLV and some commodities producers. I will buy more commodity producers after any crash. I have sold absolutely zero of my physical PMs and may even add to them while there is still stock to be had. I'm going to sit tight and wait for either a Fed statement taking us to YCC or a crash.

>>29700316
I casually bought an undervalued house in my neighborhood, replaced the kitchen/1 bathroom, built a big front porch, and made 80 grand in 4 months 2 years ago.

>>29700290
You're the same kind of guy who shills diamond hand/never sell memes.

Is this the black swan

>>29699779
What do you think about reits that are in most people’s 401ks?

>>29700290
look at dxy vs spx during a crash.

now if you think it will crash in real terms only but moon in nominal terms then we've got bigger problems to worry about.

>>29699779
Can someone explain to me like a retard what this means?

I am trying to become a savvy business suit man but I dont know the bonds amd the nasdaq and the derivative things.

>>29700407
This is not "failed state" level catastrophe, anon, but 100% when the yield rises, liquidity is drained from speculative assets first.

The more speculative it is, the faster it falls with yield rises. By the time the bonds hit 2%, you won't be able to get out of markets like crypto (or any stock held by Cathie "Bulltard" Wood) in time.

My thesis is, the most illiquid, least speculative asset will hold its value, so it's real estate for me.

>>29700572
You're the kind of guy who sees that his country is about to collapse and invests in real estate in it.

>>29700641
The most liquid, least speculative asset is cold hard cash.

>>29700471
in relation to the % money supply does matter. big money supply + small % change = big change

>>29700768
Lol, that's the last thing I'd invest in. I'm investing in the U.S. dollar.

>>29700428
the treasury pays the fed interest since the fed is the buyer/holder of the bond.

>>29700641
However, it's the hardest to bring with you when the warlords and their slave armies arrive.

>>29700776
it would be, if it wasnt pretend money. the least speculative money is bitcoin at it has a hard limit on supply compared to fiat cash, it will always outperform it. It may crash short term as a reaction to other markets, but ill bet my life that bitcoin will always be worth more than a single dollar.

>>29700152
Im not falling for the crypto meme. I think crypto is ridiculous nonsense. Just wanted to know why real estate, though.

>>29700340
>>29700428

hmmm. OK, sorry I if am noob: debt that is already outstanding has a fixed interest right? Like the government doesn't need to pay back more than what i already owed.

So now with higher interest rate, that just means it's more expensive for government to borrow right?

>>29699939
>t. Anbang Real Estate

>>29700407
bro if your only saving grace for holding btc is that you think the us is going to completely collapse in the coming weeks and you still hold btc you are a lunatic

>>29700641
so you're thinking deflationary bust? possible inflation later on?

nothing will happen bcuz we are in a MMT new world order

>>29699779
If I buy $100 worth of bonds will I get $1.50 per year from the fed?

>>29700768
What does "collapse" mean to you? Do you have only one idea of how things play out in your head? Venezuela has practically collapsed, and yet people still own homes and some are doing quite well. It's not mad max in every instance, in fact, I think the mad max style collapse is the least likely. Humans crave order and will establish it. There will be a lot of people poor, but there will still be property titles and things will still be moving in some fashion. Grow the fuck up and get prepared for multiple scenarios.

>>29700614
If anyone calls the rising of bond yields a black swan event i'll want to rip my dick off. Yields always go up during recessions as we get closer to looking like recovery it getting underway. Yields have been rising for months, they're just accelerating now. Yields and rates going up is not unforeseen, It's a known known that will have to happen eventually. Today we live in clown world where for the past year shares have melted upwards at the same time that yields are rising and economy is going down. Bonds and stocks are completely out of sync with each other and have been for a year, one of these will have to give way eventually and collapse they can't last much longer being so disconnected (ps its the stock market)

>>29699779
im too dumb to understand this

>>29700340

OK, so if the Fed just BRRRR more, then doesn't yield fall back to where it should be and problem solved?

>>29700631
I'll try to explain: everyone has money, and everyone wants more money. You, me, big hedge funds, everyone. So we all compete to park our existing money in various assets, hoping to get more back. Right?

How much money we make back (gains, yield, whatever you call it) is all that matters, regardless of whether we put our money in btc, a house, pokemon cards, stonks, shiny rocks, whatever.

Generally, the riskier the asset, the more the returns. Crypto, penny stocks and Tesla for example are the riskiest, but return anything from 100% to 1000% if you're lucky. On the other end of that spectrum, there's the most godawful boring asset ever: government bonds, where you loan money to good ol Uncle Sam for a measley 1% return per year, but your money is about as "safe" as can be baring a complete collapse of the United States.

Today the yield from bonds (how much money you get) is rising dramatically because they tried selling bonds but nobody would buy them until the yield offered is 1.53% or more. With how much money is being printed, that means bad fucking news for speculative assets, as liquidity will now surge into higher yield bonds and away from risky assets, as people cash in their gains and park it in "safer" assets, usually leading to a cascading drop in value on the other end (because there is only so much money to go around).

>>29700925
Bitcoin is pure speculation at this point....what are you talking about? Coincidentally, that is why it will fail, because it no longer serves it's original purpose.

>>29699779
Before I form an opinion, does this hurt the jews more than it hurts me? I'm a simple man and can live by very simple means. As long as I have a bottle and a tight pussy, I'm content.

>>29699779
who cares about US government bonds. 1.5%? I make that day trading some stock.

>>29700528
Did the same. Worth every single penny.

oh no 1 usd is now worth 20 cents

>>29699779
Totally OP they will all be hungry for all the devalued empty lease-less commercial real-estate after everyone realized that offices are a huge waste of money to justify commercial real-estate investments. If anything this just means they will change a formula, lie and make sure everyone's accounts have the funds needed to keep this going.

>>29701076
nobody has done MMT faggot

>>29701221
Because If the bonds go to even 1.6% the NASDAQ is going down another 5%.

>>29701221
you won't be if all that capital is being pulled out to park in bonds

>>29701148
this
also i'm starting to think nobody REALLY understands this shit

>>29701174
we have a few more months of this bull, only a retard sells right away. shit doesnt move that quick

glad I don't live in the US.

>>29701138
The problem is not just that yields are rising. It's that never before have we had this level of national and corporate debt that cannot be serviced at rates that we've had in the past. After a decade of falling rates and more and more debt being taken on with MASSIVE amounts in the last year due to covid, it's not 2008 anymore. The environment is completely different from even 2018. We are so much worse off and we are staring down an insolvency event. The only way the wheels don't completely fall off right now is if the Fed steps in with YCC to stabilize for a little while longer.

>>29699779
Powell best fucking fix this

>>29701138
crypto and gold will also crash
if the fed does nothing and just lets the government fund operations with the $1.5t in the treasury general account crypto and stonks will stay down for a while, gold will probably recover quickly
once the treasury general account runs out and the fed has to start buying bonds again shit will get crazy

>>29701325
I dont own the nasdaq so I don't care. I only swing trade meme stocks.

I do own crypto but I don't really care.

>>29700428
So this is a good thing for crypto then

>>29701138
>black swan
it is to the average investor these days. they don't know any of us, i don't either but at least I take some off the table. look at these guys
https://youtu.be/cHhEaI_UplQ?t=1936

jeremy grantham called this a bubble a bubble of individual investors. dumb retail money. he said institutions have for the most part controlled themselves. except maybe cathy wood but she has to know this shit too since I read here that she was part of the 1999 bubble

>>29699779
ALARM ALARM ALARM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5l4OEJ38aLY

>>29701392
The Fed wants to lower interest rates and maybe even pass off negative interest rates to cooomsumers. That makes people scramble for investments. Cryptocurrencies, stocks, precious metals, bonds, etc. If the yield on the bonds is high enough then people would rather accept the low risk bond than a riskier investment.

I've got a lot of cash, hopefully I will soon be able to buy more stocks for cheap.

A -50% crash would be quite nice.

>>29701450
The problem with Yield Curve Control is, it's like releasing a snake to eat frogs infesting your mailbox. You might very well unleash something worse in the long run.

>>29701363
>All the capital is pulled out to park in bonds

This is such a delusional take. 1.5% is chump change, the only people excited to pull out of the stock market (which outperforms that) are literally boomers who are done making profits. Like what am I supposed to do with 1.5%?

You think your average hedge fund is gonna close their stock positions to go into bonds when they're making money day trading and shit?

>>29701320
MMT is a the key component of the neo liberal agenda, who liken themselves to marxists egalitarianism but thats just wolf in a sheeps clothing. MMT! will save the world dont you worry asshole

>>29701174

Ok but who the hell wants to park their money in a 1.5% yield bond lmao. no wonder it's going up.

>>29701509
just be careful with your swings, we could see some pretty big red candles on overextended meme stocks soon
crypto will also go down but if you don't mind it then who cares..

>>29701521
>it is to the average investor these days. they don't know any of us, i don't either but at least I take some off the table. look at these guys
>https://youtu.be/cHhEaI_UplQ?t=1936 [Embed]
its not a black swan you fuck wit. a black swan event is relevant to the entire market not some small sub section of it... otherwise there would be black swans all over the place jesus christ

>>29701392
thats what im thinking too. it sounds like OP knows what he is talking about but then someone else will chime in with the complete opposite. does anyone here know wtf they are talking about? its like the same situation where people who work in big tech and have no idea how their algorithms work. wouldnt the solution for all this be to stop printing money?

>>29701551
nothing will happen

>>29699779
Zoom out. Historically rates are still super low. Market is dumping due to Biden's tax plan and minimum wage increase.

>>29699779
is that really time to exit the markets? i dont know what the amount is.

ive been selling my stocks because of this bleeding and the fact its all useless jewish shit. i kept some of my safer stuff but idk anymore

>>29701450
>things have been maniuplated and fucked for 13 years
>last crisis caused by overleveraging
>people even more leveraged now
>can't even have a meagre 2% interest rate because all every asset class would crater and everyone would fail their loan repayments

Yep im thinking cringe

>>29699779
Am I just misreading this or is this just literally nothing? Wasn't it a lot higher just a year or two ago? How is it rising a bad thing if it was at 3% just three years ago?

>>29701568
Only if you can time the bottom, but if you get lucky you are 100% correct, this is the time that a few people can make serious bank with the right plays. Time it wrong and you get cut to pieces by the giant fucking falling knife though. My balls are not big enough for that kinda play, I'd rather rotate my money out, but I sincerely wish you the best of luck and tendies for life, anon.

>>29701450
Oh no the sky is falling.

People like you have successfully predicted 400 of the last 0 social and economic collapses. If things collapse, exiting the stock market is not going to save you.

>>29701599
Noone said 1.5% is the limit, donzo. Rates are rising fast.

>>29701568

Nobody is rotating out of stocks or anything else for 1.5% yield.

Try 9 or 10%

There will be no market crash

>>29701726

ugh, why couldn't we have another 4 years of trumptax

>ITT: retards who don’t know the difference between coupon rate and yield

>>29701587
Yes, it would be worse in the long run, but that is the political reality. It's about the next election cycle, not the one down the road. The bubble is so large at this point, that they will do anything to stop it from popping.

>>29701206
theres nothing speculative about a deflationary asset that has a hard cap outperfoming dollars that can literally be printed instantly for no real reason at the whims of a central bank.

theres a reason bitcoin is 55k right now, and its not because bitcoin has 'increased in value'... its a direct result of hyperinflation of the dollar. price of goods has been artificially kept down but all it takes is one bad day for those to skyrocket and start a domino effect. when that happens, bitcoin will crash, and dont misunderstand it will crash hard, but ultimately it will recover stronger than ever as its price can simply be attributed to comparing the circulating supply of both bitcoin and USD. (or whatever the new world currency ends up being) 21 million total tokens is hard to compete with you'll find...

>>29699779
Curve steepener is the most crowded trade right now. Fast money accts and CTAs have been short 10s+ and long 2s since the end of last year. Institutional real money piled on the last few months. This was further excacerbated by funds that were convexity hedging their mortgage books and needed to viciously sell duration. Rates will whipsaw like a rubber band the moment the Fed introduces any sort of YCC.

>>29701890
Because trumps policies were completely retarded

>>29701748
rate of change matters, I think

>>29701731
Memes aside, nobody fucking knows, least of all me. I'm just shitposting here sharing my best guess. It could all turn around tomorrow, but the plunging BTC price is not exactly instilling confidence that my thesis is incorrect. In any case, gotta cash in those gains sooner or later anyway (for me). You will have your own risk tolerance, just make your play based on that.

>>29701707
basically all i know is that the higher those bonds go up the more fucked the market gets because scared boomers put all their fucking cash into that shit trying to get a fucking dollar back in 10 years

YES boomers are still ruining everything

>>29701748
read the thread
higher yields on low risk bonds = less incentive for investors to hold riskier assets

>>29701748
Im in the same boat as you. I would think that it gets scary if we go above those previous highs

>>29701707
truth is, no one knows what the fuck is going on and what the fuck will happen within the next year or two years. we live in unprecedented times, such that no one really knows where the money comes from and that the dollar has no value other than the fact that if someone tries to use anything but the dollar they will be labeled a criminal and be dealt with accordingly. its time for everyone to stop asking for answers because some retard will feed them bullshit that has been fed to them and instead read a couple books and formulate their own opinion. too bad everyone is fucking stupid, including me.

>>29701748
The effect of rates under 1.5% are huge.
Try this in a calculator.

1/3
1/1.5
1/0.5

>>29701865
I have never seen bonds yield anything above 2% I literally cannot remember a time bonds have ever yielded anything, really. Do they even keep up with inflation?

>>29701917
>theres a reason bitcoin is 55k right now
Eh, its not

>>29701917
No, the long term value of BTC is around $20k right now. $50k is a bubble that will fix itself. The upward trend exists but the current price doesn't reflect it. However, bitcoin bubbles are usually more violent. Anyone who exists BTC is potentially losing out on a 2x. For those who got their 6x that's fine.

>>29699779
It’s gonna be a bullrun now until it crashes.

>>29701755

Even if you buy at the top, in the long run it's all good. There is not too much to lose if you're patient and diversify enough.

>>29701214
Cosmically based.

>>29702014
Reading the thread doesn't do shit, it's just everyone asking how this is bad and everyone going "well now they might have to print off more funbux" as though that hasn't already been happening at a retarded rate.

WHY THE FUCK IS BTC DOWNTRENDING IF ITS SUPPOSED TO BE A WAY OUT OF ALL THIS BULLSHIT?

>>29701917
>bitcoin is $55k right now

almost $47K now. kek

>>29701174
wait hang on, if falling demand for bonds causes rising yields, then doesn't that indicate people dont want bonds? Which means they are investing in equities?

>>29699779
If anyone is panicking about this, I think you are missing the bigger picture. The fed CAN'T let yields rise too much with the amount of debt that is out there. That would lead to another great depression. And with the political turmoil already out there today, that is a totally unacceptable outcome for those in power. They will soon announce yield curve control, as they have already hinted at. At which point, the market will realise that we are going full MMT and storeholds of wealth will start to rise.

>>29699779
>pNk id
Sirs?

I can't afford real estate lmao. Should I be in PMs or XMR

>>29700937
BECAUSE YOU CAN LIVE THERE YOU STUPID FAGGOT. AND IN THE FUTURE, PEOPLE WILL GIVE YOU SHIT TO BE ABLE TO LIVE ON SHIT THAT YOU OWN.

>>29701917
Look brah, I love the gains from crypto, but my guess is the reasons it's 55k right now are:

1) Reckless Tether printing, which despite what the XRP-tards are saying, is NOT fully responsible for the rise. But it had a non-zero effect, and is fuelling the DeFi feedback loop of collaterizing BTC to buy more BTC
2) Grayscale and MSTR leveraged to the hilt to buy up massive amounts of BTC with debt to pull them off the market, greatly reducing supply.
3) TESLA's crypto play pulling legitimate capital into the space, fuelling demand

It's a precarious house of cards at the moment because everything collapses if one of those 3 highly fragile factors are no longer in play.

Another point not made in this thread is that rising rates also means no cheap debt for elon and other overleveraged companies because banks would rather do bonds than loan to them. This could be good for the bobos.

>>29702434
This

>>29700016
depends on what kind

>>29702531
but the fed wont let ir rise no?

>>29701132
holy kek. you are one stupid ass nigger to compare the US which is basically the world's economy to piece of shit should-not-exist and no one would care if they didnt venezula

>>29702479
Im not talking about real estate where I have to live myself.

>>29701707
The economy is one enormously complex machine with a million moving parts that all affect one another, and sometimes how the machine operates changes drastically compared to the past.

There are a fuckton of people who look at what the machine did in the past, in order to predict what it will do in the future in similar circumstances. And there's just so much past data that conflicts with one another that you'll have 500 different theories as to what happens next.
Some of them will be right, but most of them will be wrong.

>>29702386
During a bonds auction, they keep increasing the yields until someone buys the bond. They don't go "oh shit senpai nobody wants 1.4% guess I'm outta here pack it up everyone!" They just go to the next highest rate until SOMEBODY buys it (US bonds are actually highly desirable, relatively speaking)

>>29702531
Tesla is going back to its actual value.
$0.5

>>29702311
47k ... 55k.... why sweat the details... you're crying over a mere 8k you sweaty indian retard?? get off my board. the point is gay fake fiat cash will never get my crypto.

>>29702434
It absolutely has to rise sooner or later, you can't just keep everything at 0% forever, it doesn't work like that. And the debt is going nowhere, it's only going to grow for the foreseeable future

>>29700445
uh

>>29702628
Yeah i think powels speech a few days ago reassuring investors probably foreseen the acceleration of rates. Perhaps its dip buying time ignfi desu

>>29701123
no you get your original investment plus 1.5% when they mature

>>29699779
Come back to Fud when yields spike 450%

>>29702499
Are those guys really "leveraged to the hilt" on crypto? Or just buying up with their existing funds?

>>29702795
Look at that tiny rise from 1.3% to 1.5%, then overlay it against the effect on speculative assets like tech stonks and BTC in the same time frame. Now imagine it rises again slowly from 1.5% to 1.6%.

>>29702787
like what happens when China calls the debt in? do we just go to ww3 or what

>>29702259
Because it’s not you absolute fucktard

>>29701444
Everything you want to invest in will be correlated with the usa.

>>29701940

Raising taxes during an economic downturn is retarded. No one has done that since Hoover.

>>29702946
Its mutually assured destruction. They'd destroy their own economy as well

>>29702946
>like what happens when China calls the debt in? do we just go to ww3 or what

well if there's hyperinflation then the debt will be effectively reduced so there's that

>>29702892
Microstrategy converted their initial funds, then did 2 rounds of their own equity-convertible bond offerings (i.e. took on debt) to fund the rest of their purchases. I think the rough calculation right now is they are fine as long as their stock price stays north of $500 ($MSTR is $731 today).

>>29701629
boomers are the only ones doing this and unfortuneatly theyre still what the market is based off of

>>29702787
It does work like that. It has happened hundreds of times throughout history. Keep the interest on your debt below inflation and wait.

>>29702259
it's not, if the market crashes then BTC will dump, alts will dump even harder.

>>29702105
>>29702109
>>29702311
>>29702499
Look at all the nocoiners seething. Lemme guess, you strayed outside of /pmg/ and think you know anything other than your irrelevant boomer rocks?

>>29702787
You act like they haven't been kicking the can down the road for the past 30 years. What makes you think they won't just do it again, and let people deal with the consequences 10-15 years from now?

>>29699779

Imagine thinking the government can let the interest rates rise with the amount of debt they have, or that bond vigilantes will ever beat central banks.

>>29701707
Welcome to Lying

>>29699779
....you mean exit all markets tied to US currency. if you exit ALL markets, you're just as fucked as if you stay in

>>29703281
is that nervous laughter?

>>29702651
fuck you nigger. i'm replying to a retard whose only idea of economic collapse is literal mad max eating people. i'm trying to explain that there are various levels of collapse and that buying property in the us is still a good bet, but maybe not until there is a correction, you fucking mong

>>29699779
Fuck off faggot even CNN didn't report on it. Stop spreading fake news.

>>29699779
>I market sold everything and will rotate it into good old real estate IRL.
Real Estate is literally at massively inflated prices too. Shacks are being bought and then relisted for 40k added and sold again in a week.

>>29700614
this might be

>>29703377
If the government prints more money then inflation will pick up even more and rates will rise even faster.

>>29703316
>let people deal with the consequences 10-15 years from now?
They did. 10-15 years ago. THIS IS THE CONSEQUENCE

>>29699779
JPOW!
I need YCC now JPOW!
The Fed and Treasury must stabilize the bond market ASAP!

>>29700950
it is not fixed. it cycles every 30 days or so

>>29701870
hpw do you explain the recent market action then?

>>29702046
well i think if youre on this board youre smarter then 90% of people in gernal. reading up on this it makes sense now, basically what this anon said:
>>29702014
so OP is saying that the majority of people will move away from their more risky investments to a "safer" bond that yield pathetic returns. so right now, would you rather take a more risky move and put 50k into BTC in hopes of it going up lots of percents, or would you put 50k in a less risky bond that returns you 2%? when i look at the bigger picture i just dont think crypto will be effected. yes it might crash because the whales will use these opportunities to accumulate but will eventually still go up tens to hundreds of percents unlike bonds. there is no boomers in crypto, so why the FUCK would anyone in this space decide "hey yeah 2% return sounds a lot better then 500%, im selling all my crypto." people are in crypto for high returns not some shitty 2% shit even if that 2% is a "promise"

>>29703697
but why cant they just, keep kicking the can?

>>29703476
Nope, it's me laughing at boomers who've had a decade to learn about crypto, on a crypto board, still not understanding what it does and instead opt in for their boomer rocks earning them bond level gains. Stay poor faggot.

>>29699779
It's fucking happening holy shit

How many more months until the everything crash bros?

Will the jews win?

>>29703658

Inflation will rise but interest rates won't. Banks are covertly part of the government much like big tech companies.

>>29703886

Then inflation continues to rise

>>29702687
understood thanks. id really think by 2021 us human would have it figured out, but no..here we are still guessing. whos controlling this though? its hard for me to not think theres a small group of people who are pulling the strings here. obviously the fed, but who owns the fed?

>>29703886
This guy gets it

Interest rates (and yields) of Federal and State debt must be maintained by the Fed&Treasury L.P.

Otherwise, the equities will collapse as P/E ratios dump down into the 4x to 12x range

JPOW! Call your office, JPOW!

>>29703775

Its the cautouis taking profits..its transitory. They are not buying bonds.

>>29699947
>P/E met a rising 10Y yield
What do you mean?

>>29702946
we are the consumers for their economy, makes no sense for them to make us fail. its like a never ending dick sucking contest.

>>29703697
And the boomers 10-15 years ago had to deal with the consequences of what other retarded boomers did 10 before them. Boomers today will find a way to lap it up just enough so it doesn't burst until they've drained social security and lived out their retirement days in Florida. Then it can burst in everybody elses face as far as they're concerned.

>>29704080
>They are not buying bonds.
Correct, they are dumping bonds — price down, yield up

>>29703560
Big if true

>>29699947
>c) Today

How long till we crash then? based off of those examples
I don't understand what any of this means but I don't want to waste time if it's all about to go tits up

>>29704148
>Boomers today will find a way to lap it up just enough so it doesn't burst until they've drained social security and lived out their retirement days in Florida.
JPOW must back up the truck and load up the Treasury paper ASAP

>>29703977

> Then inflation continues to rise.

Yes but they will fix it so interest rates stay low.

>>29704043
Here's a redpill for you. Algorithms control the market. And we've lost control of the algos.

>>29704230
>How long till we crash then?
Dude we’re sliding down the slip slope for the last ten trading days

ITS TIME

>>29701707
It’s actually pretty simple from a completely objective/outsider perspective. Just read an econ 101 textbook and it’s easy to follow.

It’s just that everyone involved in the fray of high finance and politics is greedy, arrogant, hubristic and too rich to know better. So they constantly lie, to themselves, each other, and to you. Since each individual is constantly lying and backstabbing, scrambling over each other, this aggregates into a sick system that looks utterly chaotic and confused (because it is) and inevitably ends up completely failing.

It’s like a coke fuelled rave. You can actually describe what’s happening pretty easily looking in, but the people inside are far too involved to see it for what it is. You’re watching the end of the party where they’re desperately trying to keep it going. But the sober truth and hard comedown is coming.

>>29704133
>P/E is stockprise per earning of the company
He means that stocks were getting more expensive at the same time that bonds yields were rising, usually they are inversily correlated

>>29704314

Yes but inflation will continue to rise lol

U see the problem?

>>29703102
why would they purchase more BTC at 50K if you think crypto and stocks will crash? i think your not taking into account the herd mentality of retail investors now. again theres no boomers in crypto, the people in crypto are looking for huge gains not a 1-2-3% return, and most importantly they know we can all gang up and pump and dump shit. i wanan buy some land right now too but prices are insane, its like as if my crypto never really mooned because everything else got more expensive.

>>29701629
>>29701599
Its takes like this that tell me none of you actually have any understanding of what the bond market is. Buying US tbonds is what you do when you need to park billions of dollars in value. Sure you may not break even with inflation, but its better than risking a loss on the stock market, and when you're dealing with investments on the order of what sovereign nations, or an entire country's pension market can make, risk tolerance is extremely low. And as shit as this nation is, US government debt is still seen as the best sovereign debt to hold, since the US is typically perceived as the least likely to suffer government collapse, which is the only way Tbonds don't get paid back.

The government bond market dwarfs the stock market, the real estate market, and the corporate bond market COMBINED. This isn't moved by retail investment, this is a significant portion of the investment portfolio of several nations. Big, big money is at stake here, and you're too busy smugly jacking off about hyper-volatile crypto gains to see why comparing them to a multi trillion dollar market is retarded.

>>29699779
Several Federal Reserve presidents argued Thursday that surging Treasury yields reflect economic optimism for a solid recovery from the Covid-19 crisis and stressed that the central bank has no plans to tighten policy prematurely.

>>29702946
they don't own that much of it. Most is owned by the fed. We'd just print it

>>29704314
Urban inflation is 10-15% (less in Texas, more in New York and California)
Rural inflation is 3-5% (less in Maine, more in Alaska and Hawaii)

>>29704332
This is why JPOW needs to get involved ASAP
The situation is volatile and risky

>>29704415

No I don't because I can make money knowing that interest rates will never go up but money will be worth less and less.

>>29700340
You sound smart. Do I buy bonds now?

>>29700340
>nobody wants government bonds right now so they keep raising the rates, draining liquidity from speculative markets/assets
Bong here, what markets/assets do they drain to offer higher bond yields, and do they have pretty much unlimited power to do this?

How does this affect me as a European?

I'll just go all in on crypto then. I don't give a fucking shit about dollars.

>>29704332
what happens when the algorithms have AI?

>>29704366
And of course, the ones truly ‘in charge’ are not high themselves but are selling the coke. It’s in their interest to convince everyone the party’s still going, to keep buying in. They don’t care how hard the comedown will be because they are making money.

If u think real estate is a safer bet than crypto right now You are just wrong fren. I have watched a shitty house in wv go at an auction for $107k sight unseen (means no access to the inside which means it’s inside is literry shit) I have bought a house in the same neighborhood which needed everything for $6k but still. Boomers are super worried about inflation and their purchasing power especially that they are retired or about to retire and they are literally just throwing money at real estate to hedge against inflation. Also, foreclosures have been halted for the last year and once they resume you bet that u gonna see a shit load of defaults and foreclosures . If people couldn’t afford one month mortgage bcs of COVID or the loss of a job do u really think that they gonna just somehow miraculously come up with 12 x times that amount cash in a lump sum. 95% of Americans live pay check to pay check and can’t afford a $1000 emergency bill. Crypto is A LOT safer we really haven’t hit euphoria yet . We still trying to recover from last cycles ATHs. And the tech and use case especially defi makes crypto MC wayyyy undervalued from where it should be. We gonna make it frens . The entire HODL coalition . Burgers, chinks and pajeets . We gonna make it frenz

>>29704366
pretty fucking sad. we are imperfect humans living in a perfect world.

>>29702259
Btc is controlled opposition manipulated by central banks and govs if you don’t k own this you are a rube

>>29704651
wait till btc hits 8 k

>>29704640
Check the share prices of HSBC, DB, CS, UBS etc — if this starts to turn into a financial or liquidity trap, the shares prices will start to drop

Also watch the USD/EUR FX rates

>>29704651
If the stock market drops 40%, don’t you think the hedge funds will have to dump their crypto to cover net losses in the rest of the fund?

Several Federal Reserve presidents argued Thursday that surging Treasury yields reflect economic optimism for a solid recovery from the Covid-19 crisis and stressed that the central bank has no plans to tighten policy prematurely.

“I think the rise in yields is probably a good sign so far because it does reflect better outlook for U.S. economic growth and inflation expectations which are closer to the committee’s inflation target,” St. Louis Fed President James Bullard told reporters after a virtual speech.

Comments by Bullard and two other Fed leaders, Atlanta’s Raphael Bostic and Kansas City’s Esther George, showed that the central bank’s policy makers are solidly united behind Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s patience in making any adjustments to monetary policy.

Powell told lawmakers this week that the nation was still a “long way” from the Fed’s goals for full employment and price stability, signaling the central bank will maintain ultra-easy monetary policy for some time -- despite hopes for a strong economy later this year as vaccinations spread.

The Fed presidents agreed with Powell’s characterization of the rise in yields as “a statement of confidence” in the economic outlook. The 10-year Treasury yield reached 1.61% Thursday, the highest in more than a year, before trimming its gains.

Yields on U.S. 10-year notes have climbed to the highest in more than a year

“Much of this increase likely reflects growing optimism in the strength of the recovery and could be viewed as an encouraging sign of increasing growth expectations,” George said in a speech.

Bostic told reporters he was not expecting the Fed to respond to rising yields: “Yields have definitely moved at the longer end, but right now I am not worried about that.”

>>29704430
This is a real quote from Michael Saylor.

Michael Saylor Chairman and CEO, MicroStrategy Lost $13.53 billion Saylor--whose massive losses (he has $179 million in direct stock left) prompted him to scrap plans to build a Versailles-like mansion on the Potomac--told The New Yorker in April 2000, "I just hope I don't get up one day and have to look at myself in the mirror and say, 'You had $15 billion and you blew it all. There's the guy who flushed $15 billion down the toilet.'"

https://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2001/06/11/304629/index.htm

Yes the same dude you're following off the cliff. MSTR share price is repeating almost the exact same action it did during the dotcom bubble.

>>29702067
>cannot remember a time bonds have ever yielded anything, really. Do they even keep up with inflation?
No. They are bought by central banks and boomers who believe the CPI numbers.

Funding rates going up won’t matter that much. Rising yields mean rising inflation. Real interest is still dogshit low. More inflation is bullish for bitcoin and inflation hedges, such commodities, real estate and gold. You’re confusing interest rates with real interest rates. When the curve steepens too much to impact risk assets >20% the fed will start curve management on the 5-30 year imo. Otherwise we go boom. It’s a centrally planned economy. It won’t collapse. Well just bleed slowly to death.

>>29704549

But your not actually making money. Your paying more for shit at the end of the day.

1000% daily gains sounds great until a bottle of ketchup coats $1000 today and $10000 next month

>>29704366
comedown into what? we know that a lot of the capital is illusory but much of it does represent real wealth, where will it be going when everything is worthless?

All three Fed presidents said it was premature to begin discussing tapering of the central bank’s massive bond-buying program, with Bullard noting that Powell would initiate the discussion when it’s appropriate. Strong Rebound

In separate remarks, a fourth Fed leader, New York’s John Williams, said the economy was poised for a strong rebound. “Indeed, with strong federal fiscal support and continued progress on vaccination, GDP growth this year could be the strongest we’ve seen in decades,” he said, though he added that underlying inflation is likely to remain “subdued for some time.”

Bullard echoed that optimism, noting the Atlanta Fed’s tracking model shows robust growth for gross domestic product in the first quarter. He predicted the U.S. unemployment rate will drop to 4.5% by year’s end, with pent-up demand and elevated savings boosting spending by Americans.

“I gave a rosy outlook today but it’s only an outlook,” Bullard said. As for a policy change, “the chair has wanted to start that conversation only when it’s appropriate and not get ahead of ourselves even though we do have high hopes the pandemic will come to an end.”

Bostic emphasized that the labor market still has considerable pain, especially for lower-income workers and minorities, and that it would take a long time to regain the 10 million jobs that have been lost.

“Just to remind you, our mandate is full employment,” Bostic said Thursday during a virtual speech to the Atlanta Fed’s banking-outlook conference. “It’s not full GDP. It is not the size of GDP. So this disparity is something that is important and something we are going to have to continue to watch closely.”>>29704854

>>29704854
>Bostic told reporters he was not expecting the Fed to respond to rising yields: “Yields have definitely moved at the longer end, but right now I am not worried about that.”
Another 4% down going into weekend with an after market panic statement around 4:30pm Eastern on Friday?

>>29699779
shut the fuck up, bobo. you think I'm going to buy land/real estate/or hold fiat in the fucking US of A? The country that legitimized ballot harvesting? The country that allows kikes the set the narrative? have fun in weimar 2.0 paying mr. shekelstein's rent with your (((property taxes)))

>>29704230
>>29703846
>Fed's been buying approximately $80 in treasuries billion per month since June 2020
>market says not enough
this article was from Dec 2020
>With the RBA, BOE and ECB all set to monetize 100% of domestic net issuance – in other words, central banks will henceforth fund the entire sovereign budget deficit which is what MMT and helicopter money is all about – it’s only a matter of time before Jerome Powell will join the club, and we expect that at some point in the next 3-4 months, the Fed will announce it too will double its monthly rate of debt purchases.”
wait for fed decision by April if it hasn't already crashed by then
DOUBLE OR NOTHING

>>29704924
how exactly do you avoid this? gold? real estate?

>>29704850
>If the stock market drops 40%
I'll just tether and dai up I suppose if it gets that bad.

>>29704573
The answer is YES but the caveat is "yes if you are looking for a place to park say 10 billion dollars".

Put 10 billion into crypto and you'll get milked dry as every large whale cashes out at once with your real liquidity and driving the price up to $60,000 and back down overnight.

>>29704914
biz is only good for panicking. if your so worried then sell

>>29704636
>what markets/assets do they drain to offer higher bond yields
more risky investments like crypto/stocks as OP said. read the thread retard.

>>29704924

Its not going to be Weimar inflation nigger its going to be like the 70s except the interest rates will be low instead of high.

>>29704435
upvoted
seriously though, it's common sense

>>29704953
Comedown into America/the West not magically having infinite money to import stuff because the Fed says we do.

IE living standards falling to a level more in line with our actual productivity.

Memes aside is this a good time to pick up a small amount of silver? It is a pretty safe boring low risk investment.

>>29704914
quick now quote Jack Dorsey and Elon Musk.

>>29704669
AI/machine learning was introduced in finance more than 10 years ago. Today, about 80% of the US stock market is driven by algorithms. Humans no longer control the markets. And the algos are going to make us suffer for the mess we've put ourselves in.

https://www.wired.com/2010/12/ff-ai-flashtrading/

>>29704953
And also just a general bubble crash, I'm not a doomer but recessions happen and there could hardly be a better setup than rn

>>29705052
>wait for fed decision by April
We’re going to get an answer by March 16 (anniversary of the 2020 pandemic panic) or the equities could be down ~20-30% would be my guess

>>29705062
+1

Would like to see accurate volume statistics for Coinbase and other crypto exchanges desu

>>29704914
Based find. And Musk is following this man. What does that say about Musk and Tesla? Not good.

Wait until he finds out how biden recently destroyed his dreams. Real estate no longer safe.

>>29705246
Everyone has a different risk tolerance and game plan. Just do what you think is best for you. Your goals and the goals of a regular basement dwelling neet or a billionaire are completely different anon.

>>29705246
Copper instead?

Or Uranium?

>>29705053

You really cant unless you have everything paid for and stocked up in now prices until the end of the crisis.

Billionaires will get wrecked just as much wagies but the key difference is ine emerges with some assets in tact to start over.

So if you have a million dollars sitting around you best course of action is to pay for a house and food for a year. Even property tax and utility rates will become inflationsry and destroy whatever you have saved quickly.

Millionaires in venezuala thought they made it until they started getting hundreds of thousands of dollars a month in simple utility bills

>>29704918
>. More inflation is bullish for bitcoin
Unproven assumption. You buy nothing with bitcoin other than hopium.

>>29705137
no need to read the thread when i have midwits like you to provide answers, thx pleb

>>29704914
i bought more when they first announced it around 19K, i made money and took profits...but now im confused why they are buying more and that story doesnt make anything clearer.

>>29699779
Why would you lock capital for 10 years to get 1.5% when actual inflation over that time will be singing ridiculous like 25% if not way greater. That 1.5% might as well be 0 its so small

>>29704918
>More inflation is bullish for bitcoin and inflation hedges
>bitcoin
>hedge against inflation
>not pumped by Elon/Saylor and fake Tethers

bitcoin isnt a hedge its more inflated than TSLA

>>29705311
fuck...

>>29705438
Appeal to accomplishment fallacy
>saylor did this
>so, saylor bad
>therefore musk bad
>therefore bitcoin bad

muuuhh

>>29704435
Ok so just give it to me straight - is link ever going to moon or not?

>>29705608
Which means 1.5% will not be the end of it.

>>29705630
>>29705630

Bitcoin is absolutely a store of value. It is backed by ***something***

It has value in a portfolio

>>29704988
the problem I have with this, is that I view the Federal Reserve as a long-term slow buyout via ponzi of the entire nation. I think the goal is not really stability for the US citizens, but the stable transfer of assets from The People to (((the bank))). Under Trump, the unFed took direct ownership of Stocks, Bonds, and Real Estate.
I think we're onto them, and the internet is helping that, and they want to take their gains from the US to China, but the US doesn't want to die. So they're accelerating the financial crash, to stop the old game, and start a new one. Biden is a faggot, Harris is a bj-queen, neither are qualified, it's the perfect time to pull the rug completely.

ALPHABET, ETSY, TWITTER ALL DESTROYED EARNINGS ESTIMATES AND YOUTUBE/TWITCH/DISCORD HAVE BECOME INGRAINED IN SOCIETY AND WILL ENJOY 20 YEARS OF MASSIVE GROWTH AS THEY REPLACE LEGACY PIECE OF SHIT COMPANIES BUT I SHOULD MARKET SELL ALL OF MY TECH STOCKS TO LOCK IN A 1.5% YIELD (WHICH IS NEGATIVE REAL YIELD BY THE WAY BUT WHO CARES) AHHHHHH EVERYONE PANIC!!!

>>29705801
what is bitcoin backed by?

>>29705525
good luck living like that

>>29705764

Yes but thr money you make will be worthless...everything will just be more expensive

>>29705748
How will people look at Musk when bitcoin goes to 30k or 20k?
He threw money way gambling like a fool.

>>29705801
I agree, the only question is: in the future, is that "value" going to be $50k or $5k.

>>29701618
Since when was Marx an egalitarian

>>29705876
Miners and deflation..itd no different than buying a special rock

What is the usd backed by?

>>29701755
I allocated into conservative investments and my plan is to just ride it out.

GDX, GUNR, FICS, gold and silver physical and Im even leaving some in the stock market. I'm just gonna ride it out. No other option really. Wish I could just park it all into physical gold.

>>29705608
See:
>>29705062

You need bonds (debt) to store large amounts of capital. Equities market isn’t deep enough.

>>29705608
its really for people who have enormous amounts of money. losing 1% of a billion is better then losing 10% of a billion in a riskier investment.

>>29705630
JP Morgan, who's been ultra bearish on Bitcoin for years, came out this year and acknowledged that BTC has developed itself into becoming an inflationary hedge on par with golg. The same has been said by numerous hedge funds, investment banks and asset managers.

You are wrong.

I can't tell if I'm being redpilled on an upcoming collapse or if this is a whole lot of nothing
I don't know what to do anons...

>>29705900
Nah, I am 100% convinced Musk is like a richer version of a biztard: doing everything for self amusement and shit and giggles above all else.

>>29705510
Wouldn't PMs help with that? I mean, just sell as you need at the current rate for the current bills, no?

If they crash markets traders wont go to bonds this time..they will come to crypto.

And anybody thinking gold or silver is going anywhere is delusional

>>29705876
if you dont know this answer by now theres nothing anyone can say to help you out buddy

>>29704430
>i wanan buy some land right now too but prices are insane, its like as if my crypto never really mooned because everything else got more expensive
This is why BTC will go to infinity but your buying power with it will go to zero.

>>29706041
BUY YOUS SUM AYMMOE GOL AND SILVA NIGGA

>>29705792
Underrated post desu

JPOW YCC ASAP!!

>>29702259
Loving this. Not even gonna tell you how to protect yourself. You fags have been making fun of us for months. Now we get to watch you squirm.

>>29705900
your just speculating on A possible future. and you dont think that musk knows that bitcoin is volatile?? the people that "will look" at musk in whatever light are idiots that need their info spoonfed to them. You shouldnt pay any attention to those people. Make up your own mind. BITCOIN IS VOLATILE - people know this.... thats why its a small % of their cash and not some huge chunk

>>29706039
yesterday, hedge funds and IBs were the enemy, kike moneygrubbers who want nothing more than to steal money from your pockets into their products

today, because they are saying what you want to hear, you think they're your friend? anon, if jp morgan is shilling crypto, that is the time to get out. buy back in when they turn bearish again.

>>29699779
It was double this 1 year ago you cuck.

>>29706034
Except you actually lose 25% or greater in real terms... Might as well go into equities to try and keep up

>>29701748
>>29700471

>>29706094


Pms are not valid currencies. What are you gonna saw an 1/8 off your gold bar for a new car? Thats not how it works. Money will flow into crypto...hence the term CRYPTO CURRENCY

>>29704794
I like this guy listen to him

>>29705630
Holy shit this guy is stupid. Long crypto, massive buy signal.

>>29705935
kek... i was talking nonsense anon. none of that makes any sense

>>29706169
does your nose get in the way when you are typing?

tldr put all your money in crypto to not feel the brunt of the dollar's inflation

One of you doomer faggots explain to me simply:
How can asset prices crash if the currency they are denominated in is hyperinflating

>>29706041
Unprecedented times, so nobody knows. You'll find 50 doomers who'll say that we're on the verge of a crash, 50 boomers who are invested in gold who believe that hyperinflation is about to set in and 50 people who hold stocks who believe that we'll be fine.

>>29706254
It's them finally admitting that they were wrong, so as to not get left out of a multi trillion dollar market. That's it.

>>29706039
Buffet, Roubini, Hanke all say BTC inherent value is 0. Could BTC be used as a hedge, sure, if only it wasn't massively manipulated and inflated.

Crypto stable coin with a monetary board backed with gold would be a better hedge against inflation, and give all the benefits of crypto. BTC right not is not that, it's a speculative mania (making a bad hedge), and has no use as a currency.

>>29706276
>PMs aren't valid currencies
now I know you are a kike disinfo shill

>>29706326
kek i was drinking water, saw this comment and spat the water out and choked. fuck you anon for being based and funny.

>>29702897
Fuck off faggot no one cares

>>29702004
Damn, there's so much more of them too and we're even obligated to keep them alive.

>>29705630
considering most of teslas assets isnt cash theyll still be able to pump it

>>29706211
>>29706211
well a majority will flock to something, we are trying to guess what that is...PM? crypto? reality? lets help each other figure this out. my guess is crypto. if you think gold then you are helping out the boomers, its time they lost.

either way.... we have a few more months of this market. what happens after? no idea. short term, sure there could be some downturn EXACTLY like this thread where its just pple panicking and then there are people who are trying to make other people panicking. This is NOT A BLACK SWAN... you will have plenty of time to think (plenty meaning months)

>>29706400
Investors sell risky assets to buy safer ones

>>29706476
to be honest, once we get older, we'll have the same risk tolerance as boomers too, and the next generation will be "those fucking gambling addicted millenials ruined everything fuckkkkkkk"

>>29706437
>Crypto stable coin with a monetary board backed with gold would be a better hedge against inflation
Gold, the asset with an unknown supply, that has been manipulated (blatantly) for decades now. Yeah great fucking plan.

>>29699947
>you think i'm larping
Yeah. And you're a faggot. I'll send you some horse semen in the fucking mail you fucking gorilla.

>>29706402
>so as to not get left out of a multi trillion dollar market. That's it.
+1 fees fees fees and more management fees!

>>29706400
Volume goes to 0
No buyers, no sellers, market razed by barbarians marching to the gates of Rome

>>29706234
>anon, if jp morgan is shilling crypto, that is the time to get out.
Look what happened to Gold and Silver prices
You think Bitcoin will be allowed to surge higher and higher, revealing the fiat joke?

>>29706437
>Buffet
Has admitted that he doesn't understand it, because he's a 90 year old corpse who can't even use a computer.
>Roubini
Has an enormous ego because he was right once, and has predicted 250 of the last 0 bubbles in finance. Every time Bitcoin crashes he comes out and pronounces it dead, and it has happened like 10 times. His worth means absolutely fuckall.

BTC has value for the same reason that gold has value.

>>29702897
BTC is due for its correction. It always has happened in march since 2009. So I'm expecting a 40% correction before continuing on the uptrend. Your reasonings for why BTC is over 55k is somewhat half true. Also there's other countries besides the us that trades bitcoin.

How does you're reasoning play into the fact that the fed is buying bonds? Even if no one wants to. J powell has said they have no plans to stop until maybe Q3 of this year.

Whats to say that the government just print more money to delay a correction? I'm hearing more talks from ceo's expecting a japanese style economy than "hyperinflation"

>>29706259
>equities
if bonds yields go up , equities go down...at least thats what OP is trying to say

>>29706400
if I bought $100,000 of BTC at $5000, and it's now worth $1,000,000 (for example), and I see the price sliding back down slowly, maybe I'd go "hm better lock in my gains", pull some of my money out and park it somewhere safer.

>>29706437
>Buffet, Roubini, Hanke all say BTC inherent value is 0
appeal to authority
why is 4chan, the bastion of critical thinking, full of idiots with fallaccies coming out their asses

>>29706541
>Investors sell risky assets to buy safer ones
It would be priced in if that were true.
>>29706648
>Volume goes to 0
>No buyers, no sellers, market razed by barbarians marching to the gates of Rome
So your argument is that there would be no market therefore the price of everything becomes magically zero
>>29706694
I didn't ask for an explanation of profit taking, re-read the post

>>29701521
The average investor today is equivalent to a drunken sailor who just got off a ship and headed to the casino

>>29706654
>BTC has value for the same reason that gold has value.
Nonsense. Gold has value because it used for jewelry and as a commodity.

>>29706434
anti semitic counter argument, good way to ignore what he is saying. we are trying to help each other out here, so please how would i pay for a new car with a gold bar? a paper that says "you can have this amount of gold from the bank thats holding my gold" ...?

>>29699947
Assuming this is the same market lmfao.

Fed/Government has owned this market since 2008.

>>29706676
One thing I always bear in mind when people say "jfc it's not all about the United States!!!"

1) Bitcoin has always been priced against the USD in global markets. Nobody cares what it's worth in yen even though there are a lot of crypto users in Japan. Even there, they mark its progress in USD.
2) Tether could have pegged their currency to any currency in the world. It could have been tethered to the Chinese yuan. Which currency did it choose to peg 1:1 to?

>>29699947
>rising 10Y yield
It's a blip

>>29706828
(((Jew)))elry

Guys my monkey brain can't handle this

Am I safe holding LINK?

>>29704388
Makes sense, thanks

>>29707069
yeah need a qrd. not reading this wall of text

>>29706701
I was just countering his Fallacy of appealing to JPMorgan.

I fucking hate roubini and Buffet, Hanke seems alright.
That being said just because some bank puts 5 zoomer hires on a team to see whether they should invest in crypto, does not mean that BTC is now the same as Gold or any other real hedge against inflation. BTC is a speculative asset with no method of earning money or interest. Its value is only based on what another person wants to pay for it. In the future, you might see competition in the crypto market develop and BTC's price shoot to zero.

or maybe not, but that doesn't make it a hedge against inflation. Believing so because some billionaires that over-leveraged themselves on it said so is braindead.

>>29706828
BTC has had an uptime of 100% during the past 11 years, everyday. tell me what other network has that uptime for that long? it has had this uptime because there are miners working. btc is actually similar to gold, you just refuse to believe it. now again, how the fuck would i pay with gold for a new car? there is no way unless you have a bank holding your gold. remember, not your keys, not your asset. im not a gold hater dont get me wrong, i just hate when fags like you still think btc has absolutely no value after eleven years.

>>29706654
>BTC has value for the same reason that gold has value.

And for that reason it will be supressed eventually.

>>29699779
I think I might use some crypto to create tokens to raise money to build in my third world country. Would you guys be interested?
I would guarantee like 2x value of the invested value in the tokens, with a waiting period of 2 year (so I can safely build the houses with time to spare).
It's safe investment because real state doesnt vanish and my country has a housing deficit so the houses usually sell while they're still being built (the buyer deposits a downpayment of like $4k so you reserve the house for him, because he can only mortgage with subsidies from the government once the house is finished).

>>29701123
you literally get a $1.50 in 10 years

>>29706373
>dollar crash!
>different this time! QE!
hard to say, based on previous experience stock market crashes mean demand for USD. especially if international markets are pulled in.

>>29706935
1 - ?
2 - USD is a global reserve currency and is also used in the petrodollar system. So it's common sense to use it. It doesn't invalidate bitcoin irregardless. The tether fud is laughable at this point.

I don't think that there's a good reason to sell other than to get cheap crypto after this correction since what your saying reads like fud

>>29707355
>hi guys would you like to take on unknown counterparty risk in a foreign country so that I can raise capital for my business?
No thanks, anon. Nice try though.

US is fucked, but...
10y US bond was at 2,6% in March 2019
Italy yields 0,8% yet Norway 1,55%
All gov yields are up worldwide

>>29707472
anon, in your own screenshot to disprove the importance of the USD, every single currency is automatically converted to US dollar equivalents. kek.

>>29701123
you literally get $1.50 in 10 years

so $100,000 in a 10 yr bond gets you $125 a year. This country is fucked. Buy physical assets and get the fuck out of major cities.

>>29702386
Yes. OP is a pseud talking out of his ass, apparently not even knowing the difference between real and nominal interest rates.

>>29700641
>This is not "failed state" level catastrophe, anon
muttmerica is less than 60% white and children under 5 are less than 45%. muttmerica is brazil 2.0.

>investing in shitskins
too lmao

>>29701467
you can't print currency to fix every problem...we are facing a major hyper-inflationary situation.

>>29706805
>>Volume goes to 0
>>No buyers, no sellers, market razed by barbarians marching to the gates of Rome
>So your argument is that there would be no market therefore the price of everything becomes magically zero
Null set for price
Find price returns N/A
No data, no buyer-seller transactions, no bid-ask spread
Grow potatoes and make home “wodka

>>29706817
Agree desu

>>29706676
>How does you're reasoning play into the fact that the fed is buying bonds?
Not buying enough. Need YCC. Need MMT. Do not raise tax during depression. Instead, monetize the debt.

>>29706654
>Has an enormous ego because he was right once
LOL

>>29704918
claiming shitcoin is an inflation hedge is literally like saying a tranny is a woman.

>>29700871
You're gonna get rocked by inflation.

>>29707612
lmao

>>29705876
it's backed by retards who think encrypted internet math is money...they will learn the hard way, let them lose all their fiat paper.

>>29706402
>It's them finally admitting that they were wrong
>he thinks retail is smarter than the institutions
Lel

>>29706169
the jews would love for people to buy ponzi internet math instead of money that has been money for 6,000 years...all you kikes shilling shitcoins will get the same rope as communist trannies.

>>29706935
also just to follow up, since 2008 other countries have been watching what the united states has been doing from a monteary standpoint since they all got so fucked.

Singapore, china, russia, and various EU countries learned they're lesson and it's one of the main reasons why now some countries have started to trade in currencies other than USD.

It's one of the main things china has done to distance itself to the US. They have been buying US bonds and selling it for commodites & assets. A huge difference to say what japan had done in the past.

So yes its starting to become "its not all about the united states anymore" This trend has growing pretty strongly with countries doing say russia trades oil to china from the ruble to the yuan and or peso to the yuan to latin countries.

>>29707485
lol I guess it does sound sketchy as hell especially the third world part.
It's just that while i have the know-how to build, as I already have an engineering company, I dont have the money to build for myself since I'm a third worlder 30 yo after all.
I might actually try something like it a few years from now with some kind of smart contract deal using a crypto to back the investment (like, if I don't return the tokens valued in the expected time, the crypto I used to back the tokens are transfered to the token holders).

> yield inversion
zomfg crash sell sell sell
> yield goes back up
muhh crash sell sell sell
> votes neo-socialists into power, turns country 40% shitskin, chairwoman of the US treasury assures you "y'all gonna like da new tax yo"
all fine

>>29707888
>>29707923
Tulips
Beanie Babies
Pokemon trading cards
PS5
Bitcoin


Retail cyclical trends come and go ... just human behavior and finance desu!

>>29703863
El Judio always win

>>29706833
Obviously you can't right now. But when paper currency is shit and losing value daily, a massive currency exchange black market arises, just like in Venezuela and elsewhere. There are official exchange rates for dollars and gold etc, but the rates are very different in the black market. You can get a LOT more bolivars for a dollar on the black market than you can in the banks so EVERYONE uses the black market for these kinds of things. The same thing, you can exchange BTC for bolivars and gold and silver. In the US, if the dollar were to hyperinflate, you would absolutely be able to find willing buyers who are desperate to unload their dollars for something hard. Then go buy your car. Even if we don't hyperinflate, but instead only have high inflation, the same is there. You sell your gold and silver at the time you want to make a purchase and make the purchase. But you don't hold dollars for any longer than you have to. meanwhile, the price of gold and silver will continue to go up relative to the fall of the dollar. And if the dollar were shit enough, you bet your ass you could find a dealer willing to do a deal in a hard asset like gold and silver. They have a depreciating asset (a car) and absolutely want to trade it for an appreciating asset (gold and silver).

>>29708199
Pokémon cards are more valuable than gold.

>>29707578
>>29708019
>https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-12/russia-ditches-the-dollar-for-bulk-of-its-exports-to-china
You're under the impression that the United States will continue to maintain its global reserve status as the defacto currency. When nations across the planet all had to go through the 2008 recession and get hit hard.

You are not looking at what china has been doing to go around the system. And im not saying china will be the replacement. It can't because of how big the global energy markets have become.

Heres what I think will happen
>United States will slowly but surely turn into Japan
>The world will keep on spinning and the dollar will lose its status
>There will be regional powers to replace the dollar
>You are going to hero when you see the price in 4yrs

Your still looking at btc as a ponzi scheme and we are long past that ride on a macro level, which lets me know you really haven't done your research.

>>29707069
>>29707142
ngmi

>>29706833
and fuck your anti-semitism bullshit. fuck kikes. anyone on here trying to trick you into not hedging and protecting yourself with the very thing jewish central banks are rapidly accumulating ahead of the Basel III gold revaluation and ahead of inflation is a kike shill trying to do what they always, do: fuck the goyim.

Didn’t realize most of biz doesn’t even understand bonds or interest rates.

>>29700152
>600% gains
You are poor.

>>29708303
>In the US, if the dollar were to hyperinflate

>>29708442
disappointing indeed.

>>29701174
There's something about this I don't get though.
People were expected to buy bonds at 1% but didn't. They had to raise it to 1.5% for people to buy.
So that liquidity was expected to go to bonds anyway, but they had to offer a higher yield because of massive inflation making other assets more attractive.

So what exactly changed? All this reflects is just that bonds need higher yields to be considered against other assets.

>>29703863
Get a gun. Get ammo. Buy physical gold and silver while you still can. Stock up on some food and water filtration. Get some seeds. Stock up on some tradeable non-perishable items. Keeps some physical cash with you.

We aren't likely to crash to mad max levels. But things can get chaotic when lots of people go broke. So it's best to be prepared. But most importantly, if we crash, they will inflate quickly. So you may see paper losses on your gold or silver. Don't sell. Soon enough, they will begin to inflate and then you will be struggling to pay daily necessities unless you have hard assets with universal demand.

>>29706437
hey look, it's giganto-girl

Does inflation really exist?

>>29707923
>>29708199
gold's been pretty good as a store of value, and volatile hedge in downturns. only problem is liquidity unless you have paper gold or sprott trust.
zoomers just been psy-opped into thinking USD is worthless when it's just a temporary hold to try and time the top.. better to lose 2-3% to inflation than a 50% to 85% drawback in crypto or 40% in stocks.

>>29701950
the market didnt die when the crypto bubble popped the first time
i think people who spend too much time on the internet are getting owned by the kikes and getting their brains fucked hard