/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>29565489
Wtf is Powell doing why isn’t he fixing this somebody please think of the children!

>>29565489
One.
Point.
Four.
Percent.
Safe.
Investment.
Boooooooom(ERRRRRRRS).

If I invested like that, I'd be at three figures, already.

>>29565489
Oh god

It's all ogre but the default.

Reminder: this is for 28 Trillion in debt

>>29565614
>he unironically thinks investors buy bonds to make money

muh debt doesn't even matter any more

Why is it rising? Because nobody wants to hold us debt anymore?

>>29565489
WHY THE FUCK IS SILVER GOING DOWN THEN! IM ALL IN THIS BITCH FOR THE LOVE OF GOD SOMEONE STOP THE CIA NIGGER INTERFERENCE

>>29565489
1.413

oooooooooooooooooooo

I’m selling stocks

>>29565489
>it's ACTUALLY happening

B-bros not everything will collapse right? My exxons and my realty incomes will be s-safe right? They survive everything r-right?

so do we know at what rate the debt becomes unserviceable? What is the last straw for the already arthritic camel's back?

>>29567002
You mean carbon-taxed oil (gotta raise that revenue to avoid cutting Grandma's social security!) and evictionless rental income (can't throw people out during a pandemic, or a pandemic depression).

Yeah, portfolio will be fine.

>>29565489
Can somebody explain this like im 5?
What does this mean?

>>29567160
b-b-but military industrial complex will always prop oil prices up
b-b-but they collected 93% of rent last quarter

Hmm this will be interesting, if the market still believes in the reflation narrative, they shouldn´t give a fuck. The economy will open up in the next weeks and the bullish paradigm should prevail.

>>29565489
I have been reading about economics but I still don't understand the implications of this and why people are freaking out. It still seems low to me.

>>29565489
WHAT THE FUCK IS A TREASURY NOTE AND WHY SHOULD I CARE IF NUMBER GO UP?
>please halp

>>29565489
I really don't want to sell my Crypto... but looks like I will be left with no choice, fucking again.

>>29567306
>implying crypto and metals won't be the only safe places on the planet

>>29567220
This number pretty much indicates if there is going to be a complete, global market collapse. If it goes to 1.5, it's the last warning. If it ever gets to 1.75, the global economy will be shattered for the next 10 years at least.

It's time to sell all your assets, the everything bubble was primed to implode.

>>29565489
>>29567220
>>29567292
This, some big brain please give me an ELIRETARD, I'm not actually retarded but let's just pretend I am haha. Why number go up bad for stocks and crypto?

>>29566637

Used to be price suppression, now it's just a learned behavior. Fiat isn't money, but neither is silver anymore. Can't we all just go back to trading in people like a civilized society?

>>29567295


Its the interest we pay on 27 trillion

If it went to 3 or 4 percent its over...we would be paying trillions just on interest

fucking stay up until june fuck

>>29567403
Is there any proof to this or are you larping?

>>29567220
10 year is a good estimate of average interest rates: https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/average-interest-rates-treasury-securities/average-interest-rates-on-u-s-treasury-securities

The US government owes right around $28 trillion dollars in debt and has a budget of $8 trillion. So a 0.5% rise in 10 year yields is ballpark $140 billion the government needs to cover. With borrowing, taxes, or spending cuts.

>>29565489
who the actual fuck are buying these shit tier treasury notes....like do they enjoy not making money and bleeding any possible gains to inflation?

>>29567429
Go back

>>29567306
if you buy crypto as an inflation hedge you should buy now you mongrel

>>29567597

Lol nobody buys them anymore except the FED. Thays how fuck up shit is and its been like that since 2015

>>29567403
absolutely wrong, nominal yields are fucking irrelevant

>>29567597
https://www.thebalance.com/who-owns-the-u-s-national-debt-3306124

Can't wait to see the 2020 numbers. Foreigners stepped up in 2019 but if Japan, China, et. al. can't stomach any more, that leaves pensions/mutual funds/individuals (Boomers on autopilot 60/40 portfolios who think this is like the 1990s or something) and the monetary authorities (i.e. the Fed just printing money).

>>29567220
If this carries on going up and nobody does anything about it it’s literally the apocalypse you will eat your pet dog and kill your grandma for a can of beans

>>29567617
Are you retarded or a reddit tourist that only owned crypto for a few months? If the stock market crashes 10% crypto will crash 50%. Institutions start selling and then everyone else panics and there's no liquidity to absorb the dump and everything falls through the floor.

>>29567597
>who the actual fuck are buying
Nobody, yield goes up when people are selling

>>29567936
Ah, I see someone else here has read The Mandibles.

>>29567826
well atleast in 10 years we will step away from the dollar as a reserve currency, people will trade with digital currencies and the need for the dollar will diminish. That´s why I am so bearish on the US, the US has too much debt, not enough productive growth and too many niggers.

>>29567823
>New Paradigm!

>>29567220
please go back faggot

It would be so beautiful if everything crashed. I don't even care if my boomer stocks lose 50% for 10 years. I want this ridiculous clown ride to end and the day of the pillow to begin

>>29568022
I hope in 10 years we have actually solved the bullshit delay and congestion when cryptocurrencies actually get used as currencies.

Imagine the bitching if stores in...urban areas have to wait for 3 blocks of confirmation before handing certain customers their lattes.

>>29568161
dash is already being used in venezuela

>>29567985
you obviously didn´t understand my post, I just said that if he buys crypto on a makro thesis and an inflation hedge, he should buy more crypto. If you really believe in inflation than asset markets are the way to go. And a fucking crash is irrelevant if you look at it in a longer time frame

>>29567403
>sell all your assets
Yeah, so you can hold more dollars as they lose all their value?

>>29568245
>US is the next Venezuela confirmed

>>29568161
>Imagine the bitching if stores in...urban areas have to wait for 3 blocks of confirmation before handing certain customers their lattes

exactly why something like xrp/xlm will probably be used if it comes to that.

>>29568029
someone doesn´t understand the difference between nominal yields and real yields

>>29567936
>>29567403
Why though? it's just a number. Why does number go up = apocalypse?

>>29568366
Except OP pic isn't nominal anon

>>29568245
>>29568294
I do wonder if one crypto will just absorb all the useful features of other currencies and dominates through a runaway network effect or we really will have businesses needing to transact in like 5+ different currencies.

>>29568467
Everything is related to the debt market, EVERYTHING

>>29568509
why do I even talk with you

>>29565489
Money isn't real just ignore and keep printing.

>>29568668
You can talk to me anon.

I'm scared.

>>29568528
+5 different cryptos

>>29567002
oh my god no sell now.

>>29568668
OP pic is not nominal yield you retard. Not sure what else to tell you

>>29568467

if you have the choice to make 1.5% from a bond or 2% from a stock, most people (boomer, institutional money, insurance/retirement funds etc) will go for the bond.

basically the higher it goes, usually the worse the stock market does because people pull out more money

>>29568909
https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield

you are the obvious retard

This board is so fucking retarded. No shot yields are going up, retards are finally giving up on the deflation trade. People sell bonds = rates go up. You’d have to be retarded to buy bonds when the economy is this strong and the future outlook is this good.

>>29568858
Did I mention 80% of merchants in venezuela accept dash?
Its fast enough with its insta pay and private enough with its private send.
Its the jack of all trades master of none.

>>29569109
>People sell bonds = rates go up.

>>29569109
So... we're safe then?

>>29568923

>literally making shit up

Lmao shut up retard. High beta is up 15% YTD. Nobody buys bonds EVER for their yield, they buy them for protection from deflation. What money managers are choosing a 1.5% annual yield vs a 15% 2 month yield?

>>29569109
>. You’d have to be retarded to buy bonds when the economy is this strong and the future outlook is this good.
im no economist but that doesn't sound right to me

>>29568528
>one crypto will just absorb all the useful features of other currencies and dominates through a runaway network effect

that's being very optimistic and if there's not conflict (which clearly isn't being realistic)

>we really will have businesses needing to transact in like 5+ different currencies

This also won't happen but it's more realistic. Looking back at history probably we will end up with something like today's economy where there are few standard crypto currencies being circulated on the stock market which are also tied to large countries/unions economies. Just like $/€ but in digital form. The current "money" system works just fine and is built on strong fundamentals. Even though with digitalization there are new things that need to be taken into account the old fundamentals are still valid and need to taken into consideration.

>>29565489
Who gets the money from a bought yield?
If the yield jumps up really high, do you think people will take profits? what would happen if no one was holding 10 year treasury bonds anymore?

>>29565489
you do realize this is still significantly lower than at almost any point in history?

>>29569320

Probably cause your IQ is 90

>>29566637
If there is a crash, everything crashes. But PMs will be quickest to rebound and maybe moon. I hold physical silver and I don't care what the paper price is, I don't regret it for a single second.

>>29569109
>You’d have to be retarded to buy bonds when the economy is this strong and the future outlook is this good.

>>29567403
>sell all your assets,
sell to fucking what you dumbass, everything is falling ffs

>>29566913

3% is breaking point. Got awhile to go

>>29567084
It's not just the national debt, but corporate debt which is mountainous with 20% of companies being zombie companies. What people need to accept is that we're already down the slippery slope and will be forced to its conclusion. The Federal debt to GDP will break well above 140% this year.

>>29569558
I'm not but it doesn't take a giga brain to figure out that everything is overbought at the moment.

>>29568263
That doesn't mean you have to ride the crash and back up. If you sell the top and buy the bottom, you increase your overall holdings. Don't be retarded plebe. The only thing someone positioning for an inflationist macro view shouldn't sell before a crash would be physical metals, because there's no guarantee you will be able to actually reacquire them at the bottom (or maybe ever again in quantity). But paper and cryptos...those can crash and those can be repurchased at the bottom and averaged down and up.

>>29567554
But the current interest rate is only for the bonds that are bought today, and it does not affect the older bonds or the debt.

>when I was 19 I just wanted a qt gf who would love me to penises
>now everything is fucked to hell, forever

I feel like I did nothing to deserve this. Even my foray into crypto is pointless because it'll either be banned or the dollar amounts not that much. BTC is only 2.5x the previous ath despite massive inflation. Where did it all go so wrong?

>>29569696
Things are vastly different from the last time we flirted with 3%. The debt levels have ballooned even since then. The ceiling has fallen. I just can't tell you what it is now. We're going to have to let the market tell us that in painful language unless Powell starts with YCC, which is its own set of issues.

Interest rates going up is bad news for the nasdaq. For example look how hard it's dumping when interest rates go up. That's because many of the companies listed there don't make money and need debt to survive. So increased interest on the debt equals insolvency. Which equals big red days.

We got time.
The last great depression happened in 1929 so the next one should happen in 2029.

>>29570415
I mean 3% would consume over a trillion dollars in interest

Our entire budget is 4.3 trillion...we would have to rapidly raise taxes or cut spending or like you said, just outright monetize the entire process with printed money

>>29569713
>20% of the companies are zombies

This is why the nasdaq is getting it's ass gapped.

>>29569524
Sauce

>>29569109
>when the economy is this strong and the future outlook is this good.
Uh...

>>29569109
>when the economy is this strong and the future outlook is this good.
uh?

>>29568022
Its not just the us. Its every country in the western world. Actually its every country but lots of them are shit tier anyway.

Fill in the gap.

>Fundamentals are __________.

>>29571974
Jewish tricks

>>29571237
>>29571396

Exhibit A: the retarded and uneducated normie masses who were short because “muh covid!!!!!! US economy poopy lol” until 2 weeks ago

>record earnings growth this season
>best rate of change growth in GDP in HISTORY
>More money in the economy and in the hands of consumers than pre covid
>PMIs recovered

>>29565821

Then what the fuck are they for then.

>>29571974
gaaaaaaaaaaay

>>29567084
They will just keep refinancing with shorter term notes which are at 0%

>>29572703
>calls others "normie masses"
>while being short the bond market
Wow, you're actually clueless lmao. cattle-ass nigga

>>29571974
safu

Im sure glad I bought the top of this highly inflated stock market that was shilled as bullish and solid no less than two days ago by several talking heads on CNBC that is really on unimaginable margins with rates that effectively add up to several generations BNP in fucking days

Hah, you know...I get Hitler

>>29573185

TLT is down 20% from the highs, dumb faggot. Short bonds was THE call to make. Are you retarded? Like are you literally retarded? YOU and the rest of the monkeys on the deflation trade are the normies.

WHY DO YOU THINK YIELDS ARE UP? CAUSE BONDS ARE GOING DOWN.

And you, the normie masses, will be late to enter the inflation/reflation trade that has been going on since October last year. BY DEFINITION, yields and bonds are telling you the economic outlook is good.

THE REASON PEOPLE ARE SELLING is because they are WORRIED the fed will increase interest rates BECAUSE THE ECONOMY IS SO STRONG AND INFLATION IS A THING.

has nothing to do with your retarded CNN dog shit narratives.

>>29572950
Storing Money

>>29573570
this is literal QE infinity, am i rite??? Money printer go brrrrrr!!!! fuck off stupid retard

>>29573570
>And you, the normie masses, will be late to enter the inflation/reflation trade that has been going on since October last year. BY DEFINITION, yields and bonds are telling you the economic outlook is good.
every normie is already all in on the inflation trade
>aaaaaa the dollar is hyperinflating better buy useless shitcoins on 5x margin

>>29571744
yes, but it depends on the minorities and the percentages of the population. Blacks are the least productive of all the minorities. The requirements for the working force have been much different in the last century than they will be in the future. You had a lot of simple work in the past that everybody could do, but you will need more and more highly educated people for specialized tasks. I highly doubt that you will be able to integrate a majority of the black population in this work environment. My guess is that they will become more and more dependent on the government and stimulus money.

>>29570805
Corporate debt is worse too. There's a rate below 3% that would now trigger an insolvency crisis. I just don't know what it is, but it's very dangerous to fumble about in the dark looking for it.

>>29570643
What the hell do you call the 2010s if not roaring? We roared in the 2000s, had a massive deleveraging crisis, and went right back into insane reflation and beyond. 2020 was a microcosm of that in the markets while being under unprecedented lockdowns. You think the roaring period starts now? No friend. We are nearing the end.

>>29572950
storing their money. if the perceived risk of assets are high like stocks, gold, real estate etc. they want their money sheltered so their principle is safe. when assets become 'corrected' they want to be able to jump back in.

Lol bobos thinking anything matters. It's a magic money market. Line goes up. If line ever goes down for longer than 6 months then capitalism will collapse. They will never let that happen.

>>29572703
>best rate of change growth in GDP in HISTORY
>right after
>worst rate of change growth in GDP in HISTORY
The "recovery" fell flat and does not resemble anything close to a V let alone a "super V".

>>29573180
yeah, that doesn't scream panic can kicking at all. I'm not sure how that won't coil the crash into the most kinetic we've ever seen....

>all the financial brainlets in this thread
If you dont have a grasp on the implications of this you shouldn't be posting on this board.

>>29574683
Well it’s pretty simple really, either the fed fixes this issue or the party is over. No more cheap credit and all the bubbles deflate

Yes yes perfect. Mortgage rates will go up, real estate will crash, people can't refinance, many lose homes. Cashgang swoops in and buys up property.

>>29574683
Apparently no one does. No one can agree as to what it means.

>>29574330

Yes, reversion to the mean is a thing. Doesn’t mean economic data is t incredibly bullish for the next quarter.

>>29573925

Btc permabulls have nothing to do with this. There is still a big net SHORT position on SPY futures. People are BETTING on a move down. Inflation news articles haven’t even been a thing since like last week. And there are still people who do not believe in inflation because we have never seen it before

>>29573858

Go back to Rddit

>>29574683
Tell us what it means, oh big brain. All I can see is that the Fed either goes with YCC or we have a massive deleveraging. We're reaching the breakout point, one way or another.

>>29566473
China is selling its US debt since their economy will soon surpassed USA and China wants it's digital currency to become the global currency.

>>29575585
What does this mean for the nasdump

>>29575660
I'm referring to the people that dont understand that purchasing treasuries drives yield down and selling drives them up. Even worse, the people mocking the 1.4% return as if we are talking about investing in bonds. I dont know how the treasury or fed will react though I'm leaning towards QE infinity and YCC

>>29575836
Actually china started buying again in october

>>29575839

Buy calls

>>29576882
fair enough

>>29571974
meaningless in clown world

>>29569524
the debt is also at its highest it's been in any point in history, what's your point?

>>29565489
it's over...

>>29575250
Fixed rate gang

>>29572950
Bonds are a meme. Literally no one actually buys them. Try and think of ONE person who owns a bund. You can't.

>>29575250
YES PLEASE GOD LET IT BE SO
Are the mortgage rates based on short end or long end rates?

>>29569237

DASH has been there forever.
Does nothing for the overall price. They need a rebrand.
Antshares styles.

>>29577418
Retirement funds are required by law to buy bonds as a percentage of their holdings

>>29567403
do you think there's a chance that they raise them just to lower them again for hype purposes before going negative?

Who and What determines which direction bond yields go?

>>29569655
Yuan? I've already bought land in China and started looking for a chinese girlfriend. We lost, it's over. I suggest being one of the first over there.

>>29572950
Storing money but only a retard would buy them if inflation is above them.

>>29565489
Is there a graph of total value of interest payments over time?

>>29577499
Mortgages are based of 10yr

Huge block buys on $CLF for earnings tomorrow

>>29569109
>You’d have to be retarded to buy bonds when the economy is this strong and the future outlook is this good.

i'll just leave this here

>>29570643
>>29573984

not only blacks in general. most ppl with an iq lower than 120.

>>29570407
It is early yet. Tax returns and 1.9 trillion dollar stimulus incoming. Other countries across the world also raining the cash.

>>29565489

>market go up

Nothing is real anymore

>>29565821
?

>>29583395
dollar go AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

>>29565489
Why don't they buy Bitcoin, pump it, and then sell it to pay off the debt?

>>29567403
You doomsday incels are incredible. It has been bouncing between 2 and 3 since 2013.

>>29567429
fuck off

>>29584209
>michael burry is a doomsday incel

>>29584209
look at this smooth brain. do you think that sovereign and corporate debt levels are the same as in 2013 after 8 years of low interest rate environment? You have no idea how big this debt bomb has gotten.

>>29567936
HOLY HECKERINO IT'S JUST LIKE DAYZ THE MOD FOR ARMA!!!!!!!!!!!!!

>>29572950
It's for people who already made it whose income is soley from selling assets. When you have 7+ figures invested and you have to sell 3% of your portfolio every year for your standard of living something like the coof or any other dump can ruin your retirement because simply holding until it eventually goes back up isn't an option

>>29565538
And by children, we mean us!!

anyone wondering about why treasury rates matter, they basically set the cost of borrowing for everything
>>29434912
>>29436353

>>29569109
>the future outlook is this good.

Kek what the fuck?

>>29573570
FED is buying all the assets inflating the stock markets and making people leave bonds by selling them making yield go up. Also dollar getting weaker inflates oil markets as well.

>>29567985
Then you just buy more when it crashes

>>29569985

>just time the market bro, what you dont have a crystal ball?

gfy

read this article from last yeawr, yea yea schiffgold but it lines up with what others are saying.
https://schiffgold.com/key-gold-news/fed-would-need-to-double-quantitative-easing-to-keep-pace-with-us-debt/
>As ZeroHedge summed up, “In short: the Fed needs to more than double its scheduled monthly QE in 2021 just to catch up to where it was in 2020.”

There's basically not enough QE going on. more buy pressure from the fed would increase bond prices and lower the 10 year yield.
these greedy fucks want MORE QE

>>29579003
>I've already bought land in China
please give me some advice on this
can foreigners really own land? where did you buy

>>29584936
He quite literally is.

>>29572950
sometimes people NEED to lose some money so they don't get FUCKED.
so they buy things that will go down to level it out.

it ends up saving them money in the long run.

>>29577418
My family owns bonds, along with stocks cash and real estate.

Why do you doomsday faggots posts so often when you are so clueless about the markets.

>nothing is going to happen

>>29565489
do people unironically bother with these pathetic gains that dont even come close to beating inflation and could be gained 10 fold by just buying any crypto pump and selling after a minute

>>29566637
same reason GME is going down, they are dumping on the market to suppress the price to get everyone to sell to make the price even lower, hodl long enough at that silver you own will be worth enough to buy a state

>>29565489
Literally zoom out