/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>28755560
so basically money isnt real

>>28755606
That’s the idea that I’m getting anon.

>>28755560
Market it based on expectations.

Market expects to return to normal plus a boost from all the stupid shit we've been pimpin into the system.

>>28755560
Looking from a historical perspective we're looking at another great depression / recession. If you are lower middle class you already know this. People are losing jobs, losing houses, suicide rates going up, and fed is still printing more money. Inflation, inflation, inflation. Now it's just a matter if we'll really hit some kind of breaking point (i.e. wall street loses money on something it didn't take into account and govt doesn't bail out -> unlikely) or we just keep pushing class division more and more and make the gap between rich and poor even bigger -> more likely. Don't take my word for gospel though I'm just a faggot nigger.

>>28755560
Fundamentals don't matter
The lockdowns are absolute brainlet tier solutions economically speaking, until they're lifted I wouldn't put my money on things getting better
If I have to guess the 2020s will be like the 70s, stagflation comes back and we don't really recover except on paper

>>28755560
usa was in a asset price bubble so rather than risk deflation and panic the jew bank inc has been emergency printing money to devalue currency so the bubbled prices are accurate now

>>28755560
Economists are still somewhat unsure why the care they issued in 08 didn't cause big inflation spikes. But it didn't. They're hoping the fact a lot of fed printed money is locked up in banks where normies can't get it will curb inflation, but the fact is when everything is open, and people can take their wealth, which largely did not decrease, and spend it again in addition to all this newly minted money, we may well see an incredibly overheated economy. We won't know until we get there, so look towards summer to fall of this year.
As far as stocks, that's just the market pricing in a smooth recovery and rollout of vaccines, which they'll likely get. Market is always forward looking.

>>28755560
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RYfmRTyl56w

Fed is trapped, they will not stop pumping QE and low rates. You have no choice but to dance while the music is still playing.

Hangover will be immense but that's in a couple of years.

Anons have to make bank now before shit gets real.

>>28755560
The market is artificially inflated due to multiple stimulus checks. We have somehow avoided inflation (for now) but the Fed controls more assets than it ever has in the history of the Fed, and over 30% of the worlds global reserve currency was printed in just the past year.

The only reason we haven't hit hyperinflation yet is because the money is going from the public into the pockets of Jeff Bezos, et al... so it's not actually in circulation. But we're really hanging on by a thread. The Federal moratorium on rent and mortgage payments has to end sometime and when it does we'll likely see millions of people homeless. With homelessness comes even higher unemployment and shit will just roll downhill from there.

Wait to see in March whether or not they renew the rent/mortgage moratorium. If they don't, it's time to hit the deck because shit will start to get nasty.

t. econ bachelors

>>28757298
Could you describe it as the middle class not having enough money to actually live normally, but on the other end of the economy it's the opposite and there's shittons of QE/BRRRRing money?

>>28755560
>Redpill me on the absolute state of the US economy
Headed for a Japan style period of stagnation.
>nonstop stimulus packages
The checks don't actually stimulate the economy btw
>looking at the market, it’s like nothing is wrong
The US stock market right now, from my interpretation, is a bubble created by a mixture of conditions but most notably from the increased retail participation driven by retail brokers' pricing competition (commissions are zero across the board now), the availability of fractional shares, the availability of high leverage to retail without qualification.
However, there is clearly more to it when considering that all equity markets resemble US equities (find any ex-US index) it is probably the result of years of easy money policy and the elimination of currency pegged to a stable value item.
More important than the stock market is the interest rate structure and level of public debt. Interest rates are highly compressed now and central banks struggle to raise them higher. By higher, I mean in absolute terms, for instance achieving a 5%-10% benchmark rate is probably not possible anymore without causing a protracted depression. We'd really like to see those rates be higher so a we can adjust it to promote inflation and b) so we don't run into the keynesian liquidity trap. We are already kind of there. This is why you've seen the reserve ratio go to zero and FRB saying they don't consider rate manipulation a first-line policy tool anymore. The only thing that works for expansion anymore is direct monetary base expansion. This of course, weakens the currency.
I am about to go to bed otherwise I'd be more thorough. But you can read about Japan here
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lost_Decade_(Japan)
And make comparisons to us today.
>>28757777
Middle class woes are the result of them not being paid commensurate with productivity, that divergence began when we debased the dollar from gold.

>>28756889
This makes sense to me, that there’s all this new currency, but the lockdowns have severely hindered that circulation into the actual economy. So do you think we could see staggering inflation when things really open up and people actually start spending in brick and mortar places again?

>>28755560
more of these threads are popping up
we are literally in pre-depression right now

>>28755560
Actual econfag here. Measures such a GDP and unemployment tend to rely a lot on the service industry, which is suffering right now. The value of the stock market tends to heavily rely on industrials, which have been booming. This is why the indexes have been performing so well even though everything seems so fucked. Hope this helps!

What to invest in?

>>28755560
We're marching in lockstep with Weimar Germany.

People are fleeing to alternative stores of value. Stocks, metals, crypto, real estate.
Inflation on paper doesn't necessarily tell the whole story. It's not as though one day you wake up and the price of milk has quadrupled. It's more insidious than that. It creeps up on you.

Basically we're fuckin fucked mate bigly.

Add economic disaster on top of the precarious place the US is right now and well...
I'm stacking lead, silver, gold, crypto, and Bic lighters.

>>28757298
>somehow avoided inflation

Yeah because the (((federal reserve))) dropped interest to almost zero in the middle of the (((pandemic))).

>>28755560
>How is this happening,
It's all going according to plan.

>>28758118
I am not very concerned about inflation, currently we struggle to meet inflation targets, I know the common response is >but asset prices but simple truth is if we had a period of high inflation it would be a godsend for fixing the rate structure.
Every economic crisis in the modern world (year ~1000 to present) is preceded by a credit default crisis or credit freeze. This is one of the issues most prominent today (that it is less and less attractive to lend because rates are low, and the amounts being borrowed are ever higher because rates are low).

>>28755560
Finance student here. Econ has a (((theory))) called the modern monetary theory that isn't based at all in reality. Our economy is totally fucked, but it could take years before we find out how much. I expect we'll start another war right before things get really bad

>>28758464
I wonder how Bitcoin will play into that chart

>>28755560
So basically FDR let the FED control the money supply and allowed them to manipulate the market since then. Every major crash has been caused by keynsian shenanigans and bad policies and regulation brought about when the government tries to insert itself into the economy by using the "for the people" bs.

The US economy is so fucking weird. You retards print money all the fucking time. Like are you looking to become zimbabwe or what? Keep printing and you'll hand over world currency to the gooks.

>>28756543
recessions are deflationary you retard nigger

>>28758752
neither is the keynsian econ taught in schools anon.

>>28755560
im a macro guy and youre right. stimulus really doesnt make sense. Economy is pretty much recovering on its own and we're still shut down for many areas. if we reopened, we'd be booming. jobs back and everything. This narrative that we NEED stimulus is so dumb. Maybe people needed stimulus in april and august when they lost jobs. Hell, I lost my job in august and found a new one in 2 months.
I got a lot of interviews and offers too.

What is happening is a k shaped recover as usual due to QE and if the Fed doesnt raise rates we are going to turn into japan. We are already heading that way and as the Fed creates a liquidity trap imo

>>28759005
Yeah but it never sees circulation it just goes to banks. There are 2 different currencies in the US. The value the banks get and the value the consumer gets.

>>28755560
restaurants and fastfood are in. doing great. somehow they are unaffected. that is to say, some industries are hurting (airlines) some are doing well (fast food).

So what I'm saying is, you can't stop the money from flowing. Still seem like a genuine pandemic?

>>28758281
Guns, ammo, food, water, general shtf supplies, land.

>>28758785
BTC will be the worlds reserve currency.

>>28759648
>everyone just uses paper wallets like dollars

>>28758367
Interest rates have been near zero for a really long time, anon. They tried to raise interest rates during Trumps presidency and everyone screamed at them and the market started to slow so they backed off. https://www.statista.com/statistics/187616/effective-rate-of-us-federal-funds-monthly/

>>28757777
That's part of it, but not the entire story. Middle class has suffered from stagnation for decades now. What most people fail to realize is that inflation has very little effect on day to day life unless it causes a recession or hyperinflation. Where inflation really fucks you over is your savings. A dollar spent today is worth more than a dollar spent tomorrow. If you had spent $50k to buy a house in 1980, that house would be worth $250k today. If you buy a house for $250k today, it will be worth $1m in 2060. If you leave that $250k sitting in a bank account, it will still only be worth $250k when you go to spend it in 2060, but you could have bought a house with that money today.

Wages nominally grow with inflation. We get paid more today than we did in 1980, but we can buy approximately the same amount of junk with it. The middle class is still living "normally" today as it did 50 years ago. Our "normal" priorities have changed a bit, but it's still going on. It's just that the middle class has shrunk due to a higher supply of labor and a lower supply of jobs. A cashier at a supermarket could support a family as recently as 1950, today it would take 2 individuals working doubleshifts of that job to do the same. What changed? The supply of labor available to do those jobs. Because those positions are easily replaceable (anyone with a middle school education can count out change) and due to the increase in the work force due to women and foreigners there are so many people lining up for those jobs that they can get away with paying them slave labor wages.

a liquidity trap does not emerge in response to consumers' massive increases in the demand for money but comes as a result of very loose monetary policies, which inflict severe damage to the pool of real savings.

>>28759752
>buy something
>run home and empty out the wallet before they can cash it

>>28759998
more like

>spend all week sending 0.000002 satoshi bills to your main wallet

>>28755560

>Fed prints unprecedented amounts of new money
Why price no go down?
Check out the gainz on those food hodlers tho. About to FOMO in on that pump.

>>28757777
What I'm >>28759783 saying specifically is that in this circumstance there are a lot of people who have lost a lot of money in wages over the past year and who owe a lot of money in rent. And there are a lot of landlords who owe a lot of money in mortgages because they haven't been receiving rent to pay them for the past year. When the federal moratorium ends, that's going to result in a lot of people being out on the streets and a lot of houses and tenements being foreclosed. Once that ball of shit starts, it's going to roll downhill and hit every sector. This anon is right >>28758048 in that the best possible outcome is a decade of economic stagnation. What's more likely though is that we'll go into a deeper recession and slide into a depression when China makes an even bigger economic move against us. The only thing that keeps the US afloat is that it controls the global reserve currency, but you can bet you tits that China is itching to take control of that. With the Fed printing money to keep people happy, and with every single one of our "allies" siding with them, we're in a very unstable situation both within and outside of the borders.

>>28759005
All the money goes into foreign reserves or assets you fucking retard this is an advanced economy the fed is expanding their balance sheet so normies can buy bananas with 100 dollar bills learn how a money market works

>>28756543
>wall street loses money on something it didn't take into account and govt doesn't bail out
some might call it a game stop if you will

>>28760181

Dollars being the global reserve currency is actually a huge problem for US people though, and it'd be nice to see a devalued dollar.

The elites and Euros would hate it, but the main reason average Americans are losing all their jobs and manufacturing to China is because they keep devaluing the Yuan to attract investors, but everyone would scream bloody murder if the dollar lost a single cent despite the fact that that would make Americans much much easier to hire.

>>28760755
Yeah but chinkdollars are devalued to the point where 90% of the chinks are slave labor, and they have no real middle class at all. It's very similar to the problem I described about the labor force here: >>28759783

If we want to devalue the dollar, we have to simultaneously reduce our workforce and increase wages in order to maintain the standard of living we have right now. It's not the reduction in buying power that we burgers are against, per se, but a reduction of lifestyle.

>>28761060
>Bugmen devalue their currency and go from hell on earth cannibalism famines to kinda shitty industry jobs

>Americans in the same time period constantly send off millions of young men to fuck off in the middle east and maybe get blown up while nearly half the women whore themselves on the internet. Corporations flood the country with 10s of millions of browns because they'll work real jobs at 6/hr while Ameripoors rot on painkillers and fast food for 8/hr. Also 90% of the major cities have nigs destroying anything left of value.

You're drinking the coolaid bro.

>>28755606
fpbp

>>28755560
When they print more USD it almost exclusively goes into the stock market and real estate, so the price on everyday goods and services remain relatively stable while the prices of stocks and real estate keep going up, it’s making the rich richer and the poor poorer (eternally priced out of owning ANYTHING).

This is where the great reset will eventually come in (You’ll own nothing and you’ll be HAPPY).

Even the Biden administration is trying to use clown world metrics to measure the health of the economy in order to assure the retarded masses who voted for him that everything is just FINE (pic related).