/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>28750355

It's over for me frens

what caused the drop? when I woke up, all my greens turned to reds

>>28750940
I got you fren

why all the dipping threads?
is crypto doing something? I don't do crypto

>>28751468
Alt coins are correcting

>>28750355
I miss waking up everymorning and my portfolio being up by $5k

See you all Tuesday

>>28751727


>They dump down +15% from where they were a week or two ago and slowly climb upwards again

OHNOOOOOOOO
HEALTHY GROWTH NOOOO
I WANT MY MONEYH NOWWWW

>>28751727
tell me about BAT. I feel like it has more real world application even than BTC with the Brave integration. I could see it being used for microtransactions and subscription shit like BTC's first pitch claimed

>>28750355
Based fren poster in a sea of fud. I already made it that's how sure I am

>>28750355
WHAT DO I BUY TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THIS DIP

frens. why is it crashing

>>28750355
I’ll be there for youuu when the gains are no more

>>28751967
china lunar new year. those cucks had to cash out to buy a new gucci bag to their gf.

love u frens

remember, we are in it out of principle

>>28751951
GRT, NU, ETH

>>28751898
That's the spirit fren

I will never financially recover from this

>>28752165
it's supposed to be YEAR OF THE BULL

>>28752183
No, fuck you. I am here to get rich.

Damn I really feel nothing tho. They're just numbers on a screen to me. I think I'm gonna make it.

>>28752339
These are the best bets

>dip
imagine the people who posted this in early 2018

Year of the METAL Ox bitches. Chinese are taking profits and buying silver and gold.

>>28753213
I thought that, too. And when my portfolio that was 100k at its highest was suddenly 25k, and then kept bleeding, the feeling really started sinking in that I just missed out on a lot of money.

>>28752165
GUN HAY FAT CHOY

>>28750355
This is a normal day for bitcoin. Read into standard deviation if you're not familiar with it.
Year to date, bitcoin's standard deviation of returns is 4.64%. This means that on any given day the price can move anywhere between -18% and +18% from the open (approximately). I also collect this data weekly since 2014. I have never seen a weekly move greater than 3.5 standard deviations, the standard deviation of weekly returns is 8%. Meaning in any given week the range of movement can be anywhere between -32% and 32% (approximately).
Distributions of returns are fat tailed but anyways. As I said I've never recorded a move >3.5 SD
The point is there's about a 68% chance that on any given day bitcoin will go up or down between 0% and -+4.64%. The daily candle is currently at -3.76%. This is completely typical.

>>28750940
this picture is so fucking funny; i laugh every time i see it

>>28753714
Based and descriptives-pilled. Do you follow any macro indicators or foresee when this bull run is coming to a close?

>>28753714
Thats interesting, but alts are dropping a lot more than btc and thats the problem for people right now

>>28750355
NO IDEA WHAT TO BUY

>>28752165
>lunar new year
that was friday though

>>28750355
JUST DIP AGAIN SO I CAN BUY BACK IN WE'RE ALL GONNA MAKE IT BROS I DONT GIVE A FLYING FUCK IF YOU HAVE 3 MIL IN IF THIS SHTI DIPS AND WE ALL LOSE 50 PERCENT GOOD WE CAN BUY BACK IN AND IN 5 MORE YEARS WE'LL BE UP 500% BROS WE ARE ALL GONNA MAKE IT FUCK WAGESLAVING

>>28751967
Some people are taking profits here

>>28754327
I don't track alts, but I would if there was an altcoin index or something where I could just pull the data in bulk rather than go coin by coin
>>28754323
I think it ends around $200k, I don't know when it happens, I think it happens around August.
Things I can say right now. The risk premium multiple for bitcoin is less than the S&P 500 (I calculate bitcoin's beta then assess a risk premium value for both bitcoin and the benchmark, the ratio of these values = risk premium multiple). The six year average of this value is 12.5. Right now it's 0.73. We should see this come up to at least parity before the top is in, higher cumulative returns do that. Most of my own analysis is focused on risk premium, not top finding, though.
Signals I use for the tops are S2F multiples
https://digitalik.net/btc/sf_multiple#
Note the convergence in the 10d and 463d values
Combined with HC Burger's power law oscillator
https://digitalik.net/btc/power_law_oscillator
This one is good but not precisely equal to the original. Probably just different data source
I also have some ideas about miner economy but I haven't really figured them out yet, pic related.
What I'm seeing is a decline the in % change from one top to the next of about 1/2, the same for miner revenues, and difficulty to mine, but I don't think it's exactly 1/2 and probably there's a log function behind it.
Anyways it forecasts $200k.

>>28754870
Dont you think eth is a good altcoin index?

>>28754998
Maybe, but it might have it's own idiosyncratic movements. What I really need is CMC's total crypto market cap excluding bitcoin data. Will look into accessing their API

>>28754870
Ive heard november will be the top based on the 4 year cycle theory

>>28755228
It could be. The timing is really hard to forecast, price levels are easier
Also, all of these statistical methods are great if future events are typical. Outliers can happen, especially with humans involved, so there's a probability that the price extends beyond $200k of course, however I have the most confidence in the $200k number

>>28750355
Idk man.. new to crypto and went with “stable coins” I ain’t ever selling tho. Let’s hope it swings back.

>>28753101
This pic was top kek. 1488