/biz/ - Business & Finance

feels fucking good being a theta jew

CFAC bros today is our day

Remember to take a look in smg every couple of hours to have a good laugh and keep a positive state of mind
Stay comfy frens

>>28521446
>>28521848
So is it possible to beat le quants or not?

>>28522294
I just saw that they had 111 posts in 12 minutes and closed the thread, lol.

>>28522328
>beat le quants
That's not a meaningful concept because tutes simply aren't playing the same game as us retail plebs.

GEVO you piece of shit you were supposed to stay cheap until next week for me

>>28522092
>>28522092
Finished my taxes friends

>>28522634
I suppose the stuff renaissance does is similar to what us retail traders do except they do it based on math and not just gut feeling
They supposedly lost money in 2020 though

>>28521848
The probability of all their bets going wrong at once is near zero, if they really are consistent. They can also use options to minimize maximum risk.
So either TA works, and the Quants are balls deep in it, making money way before you, or it doesn't. No in-between.

Also there are a ton of quant companies out there, so if there is a symbol with TA-able stuff, there will be multiple competing quants sucking it dry. That's more than enough capital to move markets.

pivoted 60% of me (beginner) portfolio into ETFs. I realized that I'd just rather make money. Gonna keep a small amount out just to have fun with but its much better in the long run I think to not gamble on my own autism and intelligence.

>sold GEVO yesterday
I am a paper-handed retard

According to my technical analysists, now is the time to buy PLTR. Are my analysis retarded?

>>28522928
The problem is that the markets are heavily correlated. When a trade in one company fails the trades in all other companies are much more likely to fail too.
Even using options you can only lever so much before the overall maximum drawdown becomes unacceptable.
>Also there are a ton of quant companies out there
There are a ton of hedge funds too, and most of them perform like shit. Most of these quant funds are probably using methods that barely beat the S&P and their main business is collecting management fees from investors.

>>28522194
otm call seller jew here, is there anything more delicious then free money

>>28523341
>not looking at the 1 month chart
Thanks for your bag, got it pre-market today.

>>28522194
>>28523737
Any starting resources for a wannabe jew?

I LOVE CHINA BROS

>>28523874
inthemoney on youtube taught me everything I know the rest is up to your nose

>>28524022
thanks fren, I have a pretty big nose so I'm hoping I can pull it off

>>28524307
I believe in you בָּנִים

>>28522092
>1/3 slow moving boomer ETFs
>1/3 retail gambling
>1/3 shitcoin gambling

Is this good or retarded?

Been applying to jobs for a month now.

Just received my first rejection email but I'm glad to actually get something tangible for once. HR are such a bunch of lazy cunts, can't even turn me down with an automated email.
Anyways buy this week-long PLTR dip.

>>28524880
are you okay with losing 2/3 of your trading money?

>>28523631
>Most of these quant funds are probably using methods that barely beat the S&P
Well, in this retard market that's probably not true.
But my main point isn't about quant profits, but that the last time retail-level TA worked was around 1970.

>pic related.
>Gann market forecasting methods are purportedly based on geometry, astronomy and astrology, and ancient mathematics

>>28524906
Did you know that Cwcville is powered entirely by nuclear energy?!

$UUUU

>>28524880
What if 80 percent boomerisms, then the rest for playing around with?

>>28522745
Same. Always a relief to get it out of the way. Now on to another year of gains.

>>28525246
Forgot to contribute some comf

>>28522745
I hope you lied as much as possible on it.

Why everyone ignore SOS?

pls respon I went all in

So who bought any of my calls? NNDM, SOL and BNGO, you had a nice entry today on all of them. Oh and take a PT on BNGO just to secure a profitable position since it pumped ~18% today, target is still 15-16 though. You're welcome for being profitable

what's been causing PRNT to be so underwhelming lately? I added it to my Roth but now I'm thinking I should've picked an ARK instead

>>28525160
If I put 80% into ETFs, that only leaves me about $600/mo to gamble with, which may be the more rational way to go, but certainly not as fun.

guys I am getting antsy about my Tesla stock the Jews are obviously trying to destroy it should I HODL or move it into something else and if so what?

>>28525641
Psst.
CCIV.
The reason why Tesla is shaking at the knees and scrambling to make the Plaid.

>>28525589
nog

Eyy, BFARF is finally doing something.

>>28526034

>>28525098
>Well, in this retard market that's probably not true.
https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/b1q3fndg77d0tg/Renaissance-s-Medallion-Fund-Surged-76-in-2020-But-Funds-Open-to-Outsiders-Tanked

>But my main point isn't about quant profits, but that the last time retail-level TA worked was around 1970.
I think it works to some extent. Idk about the weird stuff I'm just talking about basic trendlines, support and resistance, mean reversion etc.
It's hard to study this stuff scientifically because it's not just that the TA by itself that is useful, but more that it offers certain points at which the general sentiment of market participants is likely to cause a reversal or a continuation of a trend. So it's much more useful when combined with fundamental analysis.

>>28526277
Stinky Linkies made some comfy memes. This one looks pretty easy to shop to make it more /cmg/ friendly.

I just want my options play to give me the multibagger already so I don't need to get a job and can just hold some for the sweet dividend and swing trade the rest. If my play works out I'll have enough to not need a job but I'll need to definitely swing trade otherwise I'll be back in the wage cage in around a decade.

Anyone here have enough money that they can just swing trade, successfully, and not need a job?

UVXY weekly sell monday dip?

>>28527110
Capital? I have 3k and ive been doing the same thing

>>28527152
UVXY trades at too much contango to make it ever worth buying IMO

>>28525589
Those are good numbers desu.

Can you get any more comfy than this collection of ETFs and some property?

+0.95%

so whats the deal with Ford?

>>28526395
That's a lot of words to say "I have confirmation bias". I mean whatever floats your boat and makes you a calmer speculator, but don't burn yourself.

Anyone investing in commodities? I was thinking of buying some EV related raw materials, but, probably too late? Lithium, nickel, etc?

>>28522745
Can't finish mine until DFEN submits some form or other to my broker feels bad man. It's the last thing I need.

>>28527110
>just swing trade, successfully, and not need a job?
That would mean trading would be my job. I would rather fucking slit my wrists. It's a nice hobby, but if it meant my livelihood? No way.

>>28527846
So what's your way of investing?

>>28527963
I do swing plays based on "new paradigm" fundamentals:
- catalysts
- momentum
- meme value

My edge over the market is properly finding catalysts and determining which meme sector will be fashionable in the next month or so. I spend no time looking at graphs other than trying to guess the price floor to know what the maximum downside will be. I just buy whenever.

You see with TA you don't have an edge, because everyone else does the same TA methods. And if you don't have an edge, just DCA into TQQQ. Do you outperform TQQQ?

>>28525994
what does make the Plaid mean? is that something to do with the Scottish?

>>28527451
I GOT TOO COMFY, NOW AT 0.81%

>bought uvxy at 10 for 30% of my portfolio
>down to 9.65
damn it

Should I buy PLTR weeklies? Looks comfy right now.

>>28528956
PLTR
earnings is coming out i think? good luck

>>28528612
It's the next version of the Tesla Model S. Supposed to be the highest-end offers.
https://www.tesla.com/models

>>28529088
Just bought a $34 call expiring next week. I'll sell on the run-up Monday or Tuesday.

>wake up late
>every notification is saying a stock is down pre-market
>oh fuck
>check portfolio
>up 2 dollars
yay? I guess I slept through a serious dip. I've been trying to lurk wsb to see what meme stock they go for next so I can buy puts but they seem to have caught on to the fact that they're bad luck.

>>28525576
I just got into ARKF, like I should have a month ago.

>>28528450
So your edge is front running retail investors based on company news (is that what you call catalysts?) and what they post in 4chan, reddit, twitter, stockwits etc. I'd argue there are way more people aping into meme tickers than applying old school TA. And quants can and do scourge social media and run statistical analyses on how sentiment affect prices. And they have millisecond access to news and historical time stamped news data, so they can analyze how news affected prices in the past.
By the sounds of it you're just buying calls on high beta companies to get big leverage in a bull market and assuming you have an edge just because you have great returns compared to an index. TQQQ is just leverage. The right metric to estimate whether you have an edge is not total returns but the sharpe ratio of your equity curve. And even that is not necessarily indicative of a true long term edge. I bet QQQ had an amazing sharpe ratio for the first 30 years that then was destroyed by the dotcom crash.

hello???

>>28527232
How? $3k seems rather low to do what I said once you account for living expenses. I'm talking about having 6 figures and using said money to generate 5 figures minimum via active/passive investing (swing trading and dividends are my plan) on a yearly basis.

For example if I exercised a quarter of all those options, that I'm expecting to rise in both price and dividend, I'd be getting a yearly dividend equating to over $25k. A nice sum but too risky to risk just depending on that so I either supplement it with active investing or get a low level job.

>>28529493
thinking of joining you in this. tho it would end up being 10% of my account.

>>28529868

>>28529940
Mine as well, I'm hovering at $2,000. I wish I was rich.

>>28527947
What if you had
>Approximately $27k guaranteed on a yearly basis via dividends
>$80k in cash with which to day trade

>>28529868
yes?

>>28529606
do you think getting out of PRNT is the move? it's my IRA so trading doesn't matter.
just wondering which is the better hold

>>28529868
Some frens are here
And some other people...

Yesterday I shilled QD to an anon in here asking for picks which hadn't mooned yet and he said that he bought 800 shares.
Hope you actually did buy, Anon. We're both going to make it.

>>28530186
i have been noticing some... other... people in the last two days

>>28529493
There might not be a run-up, because of the lock-up period fears.

>>28529663
Nah, my catalysts are more company rumors than news. Proper insider rumors from people who work in the field. I also do biomeme plays by plowing through results of the previous phases to predict the next phase and holding through the big reveal. Momentum and meme factor are used to judge the upside potential, proper fundamentals to judge the downside.
I also do high beta shit, but I know those are just "everyone's a genius in the bull market" type of stuff. You do have to find proper high beta companies tho, because beta goes both ways even in a bull market.

How would you even estimate the actual current Sharpe ratio of stuff in the current market? I'm pretty sure most of us can only guess badly. And you cannot say that "You only have good returns because you took on more risk", because it is unfalsifiable, and not really scientific.

>>28529868

>>28529663
>I'd argue there are way more people aping into meme tickers than applying old school TA.
>implying TA works because we all believe it works
The classic WH40K ork argument. It has some truth to it, ngl.

do you guys listen to music while trading/browsing stocks?

>>28528450
>You see with TA you don't have an edge, because everyone else does the same TA methods
Huh? How is that bad?? That's literally the reason TA works and unironically proof that it actually does work. Yes.. some times a trade doesn't work out as intended because of too much downwards pressure, unsuspected event or whatever, that's why risk management is a thing and if you ask me, the most common failure amongst traders (noobs or just BAD traders) is the fact that they get too greedy. For example.. takes a trade, up 10%, doesn't take profit because he thinks it will keep on blasting now that it's already up a lot, it reverses, he gets upset that it is now only up 4%, doesn't sell because "it might still go up", he's now in the negative and now he's either selling for a loss or keeps on sitting on the position until he gets liquidated.
A good trader would already have his stop loss in profit, one PT already triggered and is currently not even watching the trade because he's busy looking for other good opportunities. It's still very interesting that people that clearly doesn't know how actual trading works argues against it on a daily basis

>>28530092
I'd continue trading as a hobby and do something more useful with the rest of my time.

$27k in dividends tho, jesus, that's like $500k in oil/tobacco stocks. You could buy 3-4 nice apartments in the capital of my country for that money.

>>28530169
Both seem like solid holds for the foreseeable future to me, but if I had to pick one I'd probably stick with ARKF.

>>28530308
>However, that limit will be lifted on the third trading day after Palantir's fourth-quarter earnings report
Ah fuck, this is what I get for impulse purchases. Hopefully most of that 24% of insider shares are Thiel's and the other holding company won't budge.

>Buckley Jeffrey Officer; See Remarks 2021
>Karp Alexander C. Director; Officer; See Remarks 2021
>Stat Lauren Elaina Friedman Director; 2021
>Glazer David A. Officer; See Remarks 2020
>Long Matthew A. Officer; See Remarks 2020
>Taylor Ryan D. Officer; See Remarks 2020
>THIEL PETER >10% Owner; Director; 2020
>Sankar Shyam Officer; See Remarks 2020
>Cohen Stephen Andrew Director; Officer; See Remarks 2020
>Moore Alexander D. Director; 2020
>Rascoff Spencer M Director; 2020
>Schiff Alexandra W. Director; 2020
>Ho William Officer; Controller 2020
>SOMPO HOLDINGS, INC. >10% Owner; 2020

i believe there is a bubble but don't want to short it because i believe it could keep inflating for a very long time.

>>28525490
For some reason /smg/ /cmg/ bros fucking hate money.
>I went all in
Based and same. In from $2.50
See you at $80

I'm thinking of buying AMD, the eternal crabber. God please be merciful to me.

>>28531016
maybe it'll dump by tuesday so I can buy in

>>28530613
So why doesn't the big money blow up the price before you hear of the rumor and sell after you buy? They could have every company's CEO and CFO on speed dial by promising to get them on IPO deals, funding rounds and so on

>>28531016
Don't understand crypto stocks and it looks like they've already all pumped bigly. Unless there's any new up and comers I'm content to have missed the boat.

>>28525138
>UUUU
the comfiest. this will power my portfolio for literally billions of years.

>>28530874
Baloons are surprisingly sturdy. They pop way later than you would expect. In fact, they ususally pop when you start to believe they are unpoppable.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ygGo272tkgo

>>28523341
been in since 0.8 not selling until 50 and then just offloading a bit

>>28530850
So it's at least 20% owned by Thiel and a fucking Japanese insurance holding company. None of the two should be selling, I think I should be chilly.

>>28530523
sure do.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dy7Nrk-7uc4

>>28531356
When did you get in? I thought it would be retarded to buy it before around october when they finally paid off their debts.

>>28531515
August/September

>>28531597
Why tho? Sounds extremely speculative.

>>28530523
yes
https://open.spotify.com/playlist/37i9dQZF1DX2vYju3i0lNX

>>28530874
what stock? I wouldn't mind getting in on a bubble, either to short or buy.

>>28531356
I got in at $10 and sold around $14. Maybe I'll get back in if there's a good dump.

>>28531310
What does rumors and shit have to do with trading using TA?

>>28530523
I like listening to gangsta rap and pretending that I'm stealing money from people. It's fun.

>>28531332
yeah, i'm just investing in S&P500 index fund once a month like a boomer and ignoring the rest. probably will eat shit here at some point when it all crashes.

>>28531748
probably harder to find one that isn't in a bubble than one that is

>>28531674
I am Jewish.

>>28531748
anything with this chart
protip: it's most of them

>>28531214
It dumps every morning like clockwork. Buy the dip if you want in.
>>28531317
They'll be bringing in more than a quarter mil per day now at current prices for ETH/BTC
If you don't see the value prop here I'm sorry
I do understand though. I too don't like buying pumps

>>28530523
Music? Yeah you could call it that.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GfRx4JkkoaY

Daily reminder to be more conscious about your profit taking:
>The house money effect - the idea that money you have made on a bet (or investment) is somehow different than the rest of your money - is something casinos depend on to skew the odds in their favor. The house always wins is only true if people keep playing, and one way to encourage people to keep playing is to let them believe that money they have recently won should be set aside in a pot they can feel better about risking.
>Every dollar you have is equivalent to every other dollar you have. Every dollar you lose is equivalent to every other dollar you lose. When you "let it ride" on a stock it is no different than if you purchased that stock at its current price. Would you buy it at this price? If not, it's time to let it go. If so, why are you selling half of your position?

The only logical thing to do is to rebalance your portfolio regularly to optimize the risk/upside of each of your positions on your whole portfolio. Everything else is a fallacy.
For entry level answer to "what portion of my portfolio should this meme be", look up the Kelly Criterion.

REEEEEEE I WANTED TO BUY BACK MY IRON CONDOR TODAY BUT FIDELITY TOOK ALL MY FUCKING CASH AND WHISKED IT AWAY INTO A MYSTERY MARGIN BOX AND THEIR RETARDED CALL CENTER PAJEETS PUT ME ON HOLD FOR TOO FUCKING LONG AND NOW MY PUT LEG IS GETTING RAPED
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

>>28531994
Your argument is that big money is exploiting any noticeable patterns in prices before they are noticeable to the retail investor. But that argument goes for any type of active investing. It's the same kind of reasoning efficient market proponents use to tell you that you can't beat the market as a retail investor because the big boys are out to get you. By the same kind of argument if they get wind of the rumor first and get in before you do by the time you hear of the rumor it's already priced in and bears no predictive power.

>>28532373
>made $20 but could've been $30
or am i retarted?

>>28532373
$20 was gained in pic question

>>28532705
Based on my experience, institutionals and professionals are very good at analyzing the price graph with fancy math and surface-level financial, social media and sentiment analysis.
They are not really good at in-depth analysis, where real money could be made by retail. And of course that "CEOs tipping off hedge funds" thing just does not happen.
This is basically the tl;dr version of Peter Lynch's 1994 lecture
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=72Pq5zKEi_g&t=600s

>>28532373
The kelly criterion only applies when you have fixed odds. For example if you're using both a stop loss and a take profit. Most people do not trade that way.

>>28532373

20 bucks, right

>>28532799
>>28533081
Yeah, it's $20. But the fact that you are not sure about it is a good thing, it means you have seen enough of these puzzles.

>>28533167
Or with options. Of course judging the odds will always be a bit pseudoscientific.

>my ACEV calls back ITM
jahy can't be stopped

Am I retarded thinking ALPP and FOLD are going to jump on Tuesday after they both dipped hard today?

>>28533410
My RIDE options just went OTM. It's a shame, they looked so good yesterday.

>>28533330
i got a lot of puzzles like this growing up in grade school - even decades later it feel like cheating if you already remember the answer
as an aside, recognizing forgotten stuff like this sometimes makes me think of Plato's theory of learning

>>28533527
>stock went down, so it must now go back up
Why did they go down tho? My two biomemes are +4.2%.

>>28533626
You'll love this one. I always get the most autistic responses to it.

>>28533626
What is Plato's theory of learning.

>>28533782
I enjoyed this one when I first saw it, partly because I got it pretty quickly and was happy

>>28529868
Bonjour?

>>28533527
alpp is that one thats about to get listed no?

>>28532373
$20 actualized gains
-$10 opportunity costs
It’s not a math problem it’s more philosophical

>>28533132
Ok but that's more about the traditional fundamentals. I doubt Lynch would've bought dudeweed money sinks because weed is cool and predicted reddit would latch onto it.
And in that case the catalyst was what the politicians were doing. The politicians are all paid off by financial institutions so I'm sure they tipped off some hedge funds before making the announcement that they would push for weed legalization.
And if you considered that thing purely on meme value it was a buy even at the top. There were no news to sell, it just dropped like a rock when there were no more buyers. You had to look at price to know it had already been blowing up 3x for the past few days and make a decision to sell based purely on price action. Which is basically what technical analysis is. If you need to look at the chart at all before pressing the buy or sell button it's technical analysis.
And in this case I'm sure a quant fund would've been shorting this thing all the way up because the price didn't make sense based on PE, PS, PB and so on. But they wouldn't go all in on leverage like you suggest and completely suppress the price action as to make technical analysis useless, because they need to consider risk as well. No matter how sophisticated their analysis is they aren't going to be correct 100% of the time.

I feel nothing when the line goes up or down anymore, despite having the largest amount invested I've ever had. Actually miss when I found it exciting.

>tfw weird dreams all week
I don't bros, I can't even find solace in my sleep.

>>28534128
Same, I've been dreaming more than usual for the last few days

>>28529868
right here fren

>>28533782
Can't figure out why FOLD... some randos on stocktwits are saying its being suppressed so the big noses can buy in at a discount.. but thats just random people. everything else looks good to me.

Predicted opening price was $19

>>28533782
Isn't the cable too close to the floor to be any distance whatsoever due to its length and the polls.?? Unless the polls are super bendy like a slingshots ends.

>>28534360
use math. do you remember your right triangles?

>>28533782
I know the key to the question has something to do with the slope of the cable but I don’t know how to find it
Does gravity make things like cables parabolas?

are the poles 60

>>28533991
>they wouldn't go all in on leverage like you suggest and completely suppress the price action as to make technical analysis useless, because they need to consider risk as well
The graph was already useless in predicting when the drop will happen (either to go long or short), i.e. TA did not work on this stock. The only winning move was to not play, so of course it was not suppressed.

And yeah, weedbro here supposedly rode the wave, because he's in it for the longer term meme value, not the PnD.

>>28534578
it doesn't use the slope

>>28534193
Hmm I wonder why. I'm not any more stressed or emotional.
>tfw you dream about the same fictional girl twice in a week
>tfw not even particularly lonely

>>28534103
The novelty wore off. Maybe you need a dopamine detox.

>>28534578
It's actually a Catenary, but you don't have to know that to solve the puzzle. Try to estimate the answer. How would you do it?

>>28533782
Half the cable is 40m
40m + 10m to the ground is 50m, same as the pole height
A right triangle with one side of 50 and a hypotenuse of 50 must have a third side of length 0, meaning the cable is hanging straight down and there is no distance between the poles

>>28534713
Or.. or... maybe it's time to dabble in.. leverage.

>>28534733
SHUT THE FUCK UP

>whole plan to sell PLTR calls on run-up before earnings on Monday
>forget Monday is a US holiday
Ah fuck. If I ***** Biden, does President's day go away?

>>28534778
correct answer, slightly wrong method

im going to bed my dudes, gn

>>28534778
Jesus fuck it’s literally just a cable folded in half lmao

>>28534851
Based gambling anon
I tried option trading and it's neat, but it's more of a means to an end. Unless we're talking about levered ETFs or margin.

>>28534360
>>28534541
>>28534578
You could estimate it using some general trip/geo. I think hyperbolic cosine would be more precise

>>28535161
Yeah, the drawing is intentionally misleading

>>28534640
Nah, TA worked out spectacularly on this one.

>>28535244
Good questions frens, this was fun
Back to WFH doing nothing

>>28535350
It's easy to find TA parameters that fit after the fact. Do those exact parameters work consistently tho? Mind you, if it's 50:50, it by definition does not work.

>>28535760
These are the default parameters for the indicators

bought some TSM and NET today. looking to end the day with 60 new shares each, and will buy 40 more per next week

>>28534541
Y-yeah totally

>>28535887
What would be your sell condition? When the price goes out of the Boilinger Bands? By a little? By a lot? When would you have bought in?
Did this work for APHA and SNDL yesterday? Did it work with the GME shitshow? GTE? SAVA?

>check on /smg/
>leave immediately
You guys are good frens. I wish you all the luck in the world with your stocks anons.

>>28522194
I've burned myself too many times doing meme trades and trying to predict the market. Time to be a smart investor and put on a yamaka

>>28536081
Thanks Fren for doing the needful and braving it in there. Is it bad?

>>28536081
that you AG?

>>28533330
no

>>28534900
yeah genuinely curious how the weekend is gonna affect PLTR. been holding this thing since november and i'm ready to make some real money

>>28534128
>woke up from a dream into another dream
>legitimately thought I was awake and tried to flip my light switch but it didn't work

ATAO being shilled in /ptg/. has pelosi's son on the board apparently, it's ANOTHER lithium recycling company similar to ABML, which soared since the original shill put it on my radar. $175M market cap, microcap otc shitcoin. could be good. from their website:
>Altair International Corp, (OTC: ATAO), Is An American-Owned Holding Company Engaged In Identifying And Assessing New Business Opportunities. Our Primary Focus, Lithium-Ion Battery Recycling Technology And Advanced Exploration Of Mineral Resource Opportunities, Have Led Our Team To The Great State Of Nevada. The Initial Lithium Property, Stonewall, Is Located In Lida Valley, Nevada. ADDITIONALLY, OUR ANCHOR GOLD PROJECT, WALKER RIDGE, IS LOCATED JUST 60 MILES NORTH OF ELKO. THE Property Has 40 Claim Stakes And With The Recent Additions Of 187 Additional Claims, The Company Controls Over 4,540 Acres Of Highly Prospective Property Near McAfee Peak In The Independence Range, NV.

this is the exact fucking reason i started making those threads

>>28536609
oh hang on, /ptg/ is back, and it's not infested with newfags/redditors/whatever?

I have a few grand in profits from a position I recently closed, what's a promising SPAC I could put it all in?

>>28536836
it definitely is infested, but it's still a good screener. ive been autistically yelling at anyone just posting random tickers and some of them actually came back with decent DD
>>28533015

>>28522092
lowkey all of you retards missed this

>>28536060
Well for a basic mechanical strategy I think short or buy at the close every day that is outside a certain bollinger or keltner channel and close the order when it crosses the MA the channel is based on can make you some money. But again I think it would be better to tweak the strategy based on fundamentals. For example you wouldn't short tsla because there's a cult behind it that makes the general bias extremely bullish, unless you plan to hold those shorts long term like Burry is. The weed thing was clearly a pump and dump that would revert to the mean.
For GME I didn't short it because I believed le squeeze meme, but I rode it a bit on the way up, and also made some profit on BB and NOK. For the weed stuff I opened shorts on OGI (because it was the only weed stock my broker would let me short) around 5.5 and rode them down to 4.5. I closed them early on because shorting equities is obviously more dangerous than going long, but I expected them to settle for a few days halfway around the MA and the top like GME did. It dropped faster than I expected though.
I'd like to some day make a fully algorithmic strategy that can be backtested but sourcing all the historic financial data for companies is a pain in the ass and there aren't too many platforms that make it easy to backtest a portfolio.

I recorded this for you guys :3

https://vocaroo.com/11VERaQ1crSs

>>28537938

And it's too easy to overfit anyway
Just by including one instrument (TMF) in a buy and hold portfolio you could reduce the the drawdown a lot, but that isn't likely to work as well into the future

>>28537938
By the way, what does "a little rich" mean?

what's the sentiment on SOXL around here? seems like it's being shilled a ton but the numbers look alright too

>>28537938

>>28537938
Nice finish

>>28537938
ENCORE, ENCORE

>>28538190

>>28533782
took me way too fucking long to realize >>28534778

>>28533824
extremely oversimplified, but: that existence is eternal and no one ever really 'learns' anything, you just keep forgetting and remembering things throughout existence: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anamnesis_(philosophy)

>>28538485
"I think, therefore I comfy."

>>28537938
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=giKeix3NsKg

>CCIV

Any good picks? Everything seems expensive as fuck rn

>Ford

>>28538417
Encore!
https://vocaroo.com/1nAJZWyhX97l

>>28537938
Can you post lyrics so I can make a lyrics video?

>>28539644
lol it's not my song, it's a NoFX song
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QgQnESuP71M

>>28532705
I had to take a shower and a fap, my bad. Either way, no that's not what I'm saying.. what I'm saying is that patterns forms naturally because of the price action, NOBODY knows where price will go, not even big guys can predict a certain pattern before it happens, that's just dumb.. otherwise they would all be multi-trillionaires by now. It's all about probability and if you see a certain pattern forming you can usually tell where price will most likely go and you trade accordingly, if this wasn't a thing then there's no reason for banks or institutions to have professional traders, but they do and this is also why there's bad traders and good traders

>>28539761
Never heard of them before, thanks fren

Before /cmg/ dies for the long weekend, could I get some general thoughts on how my portfolio is broken down? I trimmed down AAPL and MSFT so I could get some cash (in green, ~20% right now) for some higher long-term growth or putting money in some semiconductor raw materials companies. Maybe uranium if this trend keeps up. Not sure yet. I have some research to do this weekend. BL, Riot, AVGO, and some others are on my shortlist right now.

Any thoughts welcome, especially harsh criticism.

Frens, does anyone here know if ARK buys OTC stocks for their funds?

>>28540158
On their site they provide a breakdown for each fund.

>>28539824
>not even big guys can predict a certain pattern before it happens, that's just dumb.. otherwise they would all be multi-trillionaires by now
The problem is that patterns are only somewhat predictive in the longer timeframes. For example we all know the most basic pattern, that the market as a whole tends to go up. The probability of next year being green is say 70% The probability of the next week being green is 60%. The probability of the next day being green is 55%. The probability of the next minute being green is 50.001%.
In the same way you can't just apply TA to a tick chart and get a 53% win rate that allows you to quickly compound it to millions of dollars, but you can get a 53% win rate on a daily or weekly chart.

>>28539620

>Market closed on Monday
Fuck, time to read/watch videos about the market I guess.

>>28539911
I remember listening to them while playing diablo in the 90's

>>28522092

Comfy

>DNN
I fucking knew it. So glad I bought SOXL instead yesterday instead. Fuck the PnDs but I'll still watch it in case they're just waiting for the fire to clear.
>>28540617
what was that video posted yesterday again? I'm gonna listen to that tonight

>>28540343
I'm hoping someone here knows if they've bought an OTC stock before so I don't have to go through all their holdings looking for one. I suppose I could start by looking at their smallest positions.

>realize monday is closed
>mfw this chinkshit ADR company releases their earnings then
Goddamn, I should really really sell here but I'm greedy as shit. 10 minutes till close too

fuck

>>28540854
If there's one thing I learned about stocks is not to hold through earnings

>>28540158
>>28540776
I think I found my answer, looks like they bought some Grayscale Bitcoin Trust before which is OTC.

>>28538431
I've seen worse.

>>28540752
Don't know. But if you find the link pls share.

>>28540967
I know but it's literally "sell low" at this moment... Surely it can't dip lower

>>28535994
why NET? Does it have much room to grow as a long term hold?

>>28541180
well if you're at a loss then don't sell

really fucking hate palantir bros

>>28540752
>>28541169
https://youtu.be/72Pq5zKEi_g
this?

>>28540718
remember when you had a million dollars?

>>28541384
yeah that. thanks

>>28541104
I think it's pretty good!

What's the comfiest allocation for a college student who will only make $800/month starting in a few weeks? I've got
>$2000 in roboadvisor
>$1500 in roth ira
>$1600 in self directed investing
>$2000 in gold and silver
>~300 in crypto

>>28541349
I had some leftover liquidity, and bought some puts last minute. Let's hope they crush their earnings so it can dip hard. I guess the IV around the lockup expiration is gonna be nuts.

Anyone else do this?
>Go on stockshits page of a stock that has been pumped and dumped
>Read through posts of delusional bag holders with rocket emojis, diamond hands, etc

>>28541384
No idea, but sure as hell I'm listening it tonight. Thanks

>>28541349

>>28541494
you should be maxing out your roth contributions each year

>>28524880
My current portfolio is

1/3 Blue-chip dividend boomer stocks + reit
1/3 2x leveraged qqq and spy
1/3 yolo ev tech

Literally just hold 5 tickers as of now.

>>28531016
i hold MARA, they’re my favorite of those mentioned, projected to be pulling in 55-60 BTC a DAY when their miners get in and set up. 100k miners total, they will be light years ahead of everyone else

>>28541555
I'm options illiterate, what does this mean

>>28541555
>>28541499
Can we still be friends even if we are enemies now?

>>28541456
np, i saved it in my watch later playlist for this weekend :)

>>28539620
>>28537938
based fellow instrumentanon

https://vocaroo.com/1kRDQyVJknKe

>>28541671
Hm, it means I can buy 100 shares of PLTR at $32.5 by 12/9.

>>28541499
seeing as it's their first earnings it'll either +150 or go to 0. no in between.

DING DING DING. How comfy did you get today? +5.13% right here. Better than where I was last Friday. Sounds like a certain merger is getting closer and closer.

>ACEV closes at my strike price
yeah, I'm feeling comfy

>>28541682
I'm pretty sure we both just made a theta jew richer and that's all.

>>28540752
>>28541169
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=72Pq5zKEi_g

>>28540674
In case you want to play Diablo again, there's a modded community with great improvements over the base game. March 6th marks the beginning of the new ladder/season.
It's called Project Diablo 2, website seems down right now but it usually works fine, even has a trading site.
Nostalgia is a powerful drug.

Have a nice weekend frens

>>28541873
–0.05%

>>28537938

>>28541873
+.95, happy with this
thankfully my female broker took the day off so I'm absolved from having to tip her or I'd be at a loss

>>28541873
-4% after inflation. Yesterday RIDE barely saved me from going negative, but alas it has only delayed the inevitable.

>>28541796
nice. hope they do well next week.
>>28541873
-0.02% because of PLTR and NET. I also trimmed my MSFT and AAPL today so of course they both shot up at the end during the weekend. Hoping I make some AH gains and I'll get some good research in this weekend to make next week more profitable. Can't believe I'm doing this shitty on a +0.5% day but I'm glad the run to the weekend was green because it's a good sign.

>>28541873
+0.52%
Tenth straight day of green, I'm getting worried

>>28541873
+1.08% courtesy of WIMI and BFARF.
Already almost recovered from the last 2 days.
So glad I sold PLTR off for a bit of profit yesterday. I'll pick it back up on the way down.

>>28541251
Yeah, I bought the dip too and averaged down... oh boy I hope I didn't fuck up. Price has recovered since though.
>>28541873
+1.4%

>>28541873
+0.4% :^)

>>28541873
-2% down about 1k from not selling uvxy at open bought more at close and will sell AT OPEN TUESDAY!

>>28541561
Don't make enough to do that. Even with the job I had beforehand.

>>28541873
>Sounds like a certain merger is getting closer and closer.
spill the beans

Enjoy the 3 day weekend bros
I'm gonna crack open a nice bang's after my comfy gains today

>>28541873
Down around a $1,080 today. Happens though and many of the stocks I was in looked ripe for a correction after fast gainz this month.
Still holding because I would lose money in the bank anyways via inflation.

When are we getting that stimulus bill for Covid anons? Is it true that they decided not to give payments to people because of the GME situation?

>>28540617
The calls will expire mostly in march. $2.5 EOM. What makes you say it’s a PnD?

>>28542750
>>28539315

>>28543039
I think you meant to reply to
>>28540752
I was just comparing the volume + volatility of it to the previous PnDs this week but I think it's a good buy. Already up in AHs too. If I bought at open like a dumb fucking retard like I had been i'd have gotten bogged. I'm dumb and irrational but getting better at controlling it.

also does anyone have any criticism for this?
>>28539944

>>28541873
+2.22%

That is much better than I expected. Feel like we'll get bogged soon.

>>28543333
oh, yeah. missed that one i guess

>>28540752
>DNN

You'll regret it.

>>28541873
about 4% thanks to 4U keeping things up in my folio

>>28539944
I'd limit it down to 12 picks max. Most of everything looks solid.

>>28543504
He sold?

>>28543433
>dubs gains
>dubs post
B-bullish?

Finally, a break. I think I lost a few years of my life over $F today.

How's everyone else doing? Can a shill a really weird ticker that caught my eye? No clue if it's a winner or a dud, desu.

>>28543963
Post it and tell us why it's piqued your interest fren.

>>28543504
probably but i'll buy it on monday when my money clears
>>28543558
thanks. if I had to pick 12 i'd probably cut PLTR, consolidate TQQQ+ARKG, consolidate PDD into BILI, and maybe break AMD down into NVDA and SOXL.

>>28543433
Whenever it does happen, just be thankful to Jesus for the good times with frens and gainz along the way, anon.

>>28541873
+0.2%. Have a comfy weekend frens.

So here are my positions.
I usually sell out for some stocks then keep them as one share to check if they hit my buy point.
Plz feel free to rip me a new one about being a bobo but i'm about 1/3 in cash as it is since nothing has fallen enough to hit my buy points.

>>28543433
also checked

>>28526395
HFs are about beta. Beating the S&P is a meme purported by hollywood mostly. The goal is better returns risk adjusted basis, which can happen although the actual return is less than market.

>>28544183
Perhaps the gains we really made, were the frens we found here?

Can't believe I didn't think to buy DISCA when I was home for christmas and saw they had a streaming service launching. One day I'll get better at noticing things.

>>28544183
The real gains are the (You)s we made along the way.

Why does the fed keep acting surprised that income inequality is growing when they literally make stocks go parabolic

>>28544335
So how many do achieve a better sharpe ratio than the index

>>28544494
because they're paid to

>>28544494
It will trickle down lel

Could've cashed out for 2x value yesterday, held being greedy, and lost a fair few gains but still took profit. How to know when is best time to sell?

>>28544088
ISSC. Haven't heard it shilled on /biz/ before. Happened to stumble upon it while looking into SPCE this morning.
They make data equipment for the aerospace industry.

Earnings looked good through 2020, even though the price was down today (after another earnings, I believe).
Unfortunately, I might have missed my chance, because someone else shot the price up this afternoon.

It's a divi stock, and a small cap, which is odd.

>>28543963
Doing fine I guess, not anywhere higher or lower.

>>28544568
What's this obsession with the Sharpe ratio tho? Isn't average return the only thing that counts if a wipeout is practically impossible during a lifetime?

I mean what would you chose, a risk free return of 5%, or a uniformly distributed 0-15% risky return?

>>28544761
>50c Divvy
>116m Market cap
What in the world? P/E looks quite high though.

>>28544568
You just pick stocks that have a better risk-adjusted return than literally picking random stocks or buying an index. All this 'muh beta' shit is COPE by the obnoxious leveraged ETF shills who think the US will still have 8% annual returns in 20 years, LMAO.

>>28545044
Well if he's claiming that HFs are about risk adjusted returns, then you gotta use some metric to measure risk. If you don't like sharpe you can use other things like the MAR ratio.

>>28545180
I think it was a special dividend. I skimmed the earnings call.

>>28545180
>>28544761
ah the divvy was a one off, I am pretty drunk now might have more of a look at this later.

>hahaha yeah guys they'll be gone soon
>any day now haha
>>28545280
it's going to fucking blow when annual returns adjust back to reality but hopefully everyone fucks off to crypto by then

>>28545280
I wish there was some platform where we could backtest strategies like that
portfoliovisualizer.com comes close but I want something that can be programmed with custom re-balancing rules

>>28545491
That chart looks pretty much exactly like GME. Is /biz/ a dead mall store??

>>28545297
Ah I see. Although my question was more general. There are a lot of people here who treat it as the single most important metric when trading.
MAR is a bit better, but only in a "I want to hold money in a fund and don't want to wait like a year to take it out if I want to" sense.

>>28544260
Guess I'll die

>>28545756
dead mall store with 9/10 of the store lots selling digital snake oil
don't get me wrong I invest in crypto too but not the type of garbage that most of this board does.

>>28545491
>>28545756
I think cmg was a pretty good solution for this faggotry.

>>28541494
800 a month. Jesus, I hope you live at home because that is not livable. I live in a literal collapsing slum that costs $500 a month and barely have anything to save after electric, insurance, internet, gas, groceries, etc and I make $1200 a month.

>>28545491
What site is that? Seen a few posts of it recently, but it looks different than the old 4chan post trackers.

https://www.theoptionsinsider.com/radio/crypto/the-crypto-rundown-95-bitcoin-tesla-and-a-10-billion-dollar-joke/

This is the first person I've heard point out the Patrick Bryne Overstock and GME connection. People have been blowing the whistle on short selling scandals for literally 2 decades now and nothing has been fundamentally fixed

>>28545843
I think the reason people care about sharpe ratio is even if your profit % isn't very good therertically you can leverage according to whatever your risk tolerance is and obtain great results. If the cost of borrowing margin is lower than the initial returns of the strategy anyway.

>>28544568
1 year SR 0.65 vs 0.40 on the index, ten year SR 0.73 vs 0.41 on the index.
https://www.aima.org/article/press-release-hedge-funds-have-outperformed-stocks-and-bonds-on-risk-adjusted-basis.html
You can find many more evidences with a simple google. This is the entire point of hedge funds

>>28545941
agreed, you're all pretty nice and I enjoy your company.
>>28544260
>>28545925
sorry the list was so big I didn't bother reading it.
I like the MGM play and think you should hit the casinos harder with 2021 being the vaccine year. I like most of the casino stocks this year. I don't really see a play in defense just yet, perhaps 2022/2023 but there's too much pandemic shit going on for the war machine to start escalating.
What's your buy-in price for TQQQ?
Aside from that I don't really have opinions. NIO may be worth holding more since there's bullish activity behind it.
>>28546044
4stats.io

>>28546226
You mean with a constant risk tolerance, a higher Sharpe ratio investment (with proper leverage) gives better profit?
That makes sense actually, huh.

I guess the question is how do you find out the Sharpe ratio of something in less than 3-6 months (in which time the market itself can drastically change)? Divide returns with beta?

>CCIV
>A SPAC without a merger agreement, or even letter of intent is near enough $40.
I mean.. I'm in it, but this is some serious clown market shit.

can't wait to make it and be even comfier than now

>>28522092
Well biz wolves how much money did we lose this week? Im sitting at a comfy 140 or so on my aqb.

>>28546381
THANK YOU!!
also I bought TQQQ at 100 but haven't bought anymore because IVE BEEN WAITING FOR A FUCKING BIG DIP!!! that unfortunately will never come. Nevertheless I took my gains from 100-110 and put alot into UVXY. I'll probably end up losing a bit if there is no dip. But if thats the case I'll just stick with my longs and go sleep for a while.
Ye I heard NIO is coming to America so I assume they are going to have a make or break moment for their international scene.

>>28523075
This really is the way. I keep 80% in ETFs, 15% in a mutual fund, and the remaining 5% (about $7,000 right now) is for goofing around with.

>>28547340
time in the market > timing the market
don't forget that

>>28546228
So if low returns with a high sharpe ratio is so in demand why isn't there an ETF for it?
A higher sharpe ratio than the S&P isn't exactly hard to achieve, you just have to throw in like 30% TLT

>>28546629
The more data you have the more reliable the number will be

>>28546837
SPACs are a bubble these days, somehow.
Forget the lack of an agreement, some start pumping the day they're listed, without so much as a hint of what company they are for.

>>28547940
You have to wonder how much longer this can go on for. What’s going to happen, fucking hyperinflation? I.. I’m scared.

>>28547922
Whether it is in demand or not was never implied. There are hedge fund ETFs btw
>30% in TLT
Probably underperforms, try modeling it

>>28547906
Yeah I really got to stop wanting to try timing the market.

Can we break the .60 today?

>>28548371
If there are thousands of hedge funds it's clearly in demand
30% does work giving a sharpe of 0.9 since 2003 which is how back TLT goes. the optimal amount for maximum sharpe ratio is like %50 actually. there are strategies based on tmf too. bonds are going to underperform in the future unfortunately unless the fed wants to go into negative rates.

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2021&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&absoluteDeviation=5.0&relativeDeviation=25.0&reinvestDividends=true&showYield=false&showFactors=false&factorModel=3&portfolioNames=false&portfolioName1=Portfolio+1&portfolioName2=Portfolio+2&portfolioName3=Portfolio+3&symbol1=TLT&allocation1_1=30&symbol2=SPY&allocation2_1=70

>>28533782
>how far apart are the poles
>hA hA AH gOt yOU thE PoLES arE aCTUAlly oNE pOlE

>>28549071
More like the poles are touching... if you know what I mean

Have a nice weekend, m8s

>>28542965
I will spend the entire weekend waiting for the market to reopen