/biz/ - Business & Finance

i am personally interested in paladin, a tiny ausfag operator of the langer heinrich (LH) mine in namibia.
>what the fuck even is namibia
https://namibiatourism.com.na/page/about-namibia
>ok who
chairman, cliff lawrenson: allegedly an expert in this godforsaken country. more research still required.
ceo, ian purdy: here he talks his book https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pdPpBlJHsuw
last sales pitch: https://wcsecure.weblink.com.au/pdf/PDN/02337731.pdf
last annual: https://wcsecure.weblink.com.au/pdf/PDN/02274013.pdf
last quarterly: https://wcsecure.weblink.com.au/pdf/PDN/02335098.pdf
31M cash, 2M/quarter burn rate (some additional losses), 115M debt
the mine has seven years of life at roughly 5Mlb/yr (35Mlb)
at $60/lb this is $2.1B, but their AISC is unknown. ian suggests its in the $30s, but, as everyone knows,
>A mine is a hole in the ground. The discoverer of it is a natural liar. The hole in the ground and the liar combine and issue shares and trap fools.
my SWAG is that G&A adds another $10 to this for $40 at the least. now we have $700M.
paladin advertises a 17-year life for LH, but 10 of these years are behind it. caveat emptor
the previous 10 years yielded 43Mlb. 7/10 does not equal 35/43. our estimate of 5Mlb/yr may be high.
CNNC owns 25% of the mine, so that would leave us with $525M. this is ~4.5x their current total debt.
these figures are estimated in aussie funny money but the government of namibia taxes 3% in USD terms.
sachem cove (mike alkin) might know paladin's economics best. they recently sold a truckload of shares, maybe their whole position: https://wcsecure.weblink.com.au/pdf/PDN/02333163.pdf
but i think they fucked up.

i do not have time to bump or repost this general during the day, but i will try to revive it every morning and evening.
to be included in my work, post actual research at least as good as this cursory glance of paladin. it may take one week for me to review your links and include your company.

If you want yet another link, I liked this MacroVoices interview with two uranium fund managers: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aGL0j3BHDb4

Good rundown on the industry and some interesting shit like the industry being so tiny they had to split off separate funds or close to new investors.

>the japs just won't stop doomping
this may not have turned around yet, but it's gonna.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-nuclear-fuel-sales-exclusive-idUSKCN1VD0K4
https://archive.is/JsCAF

>>27875787
>mike alkin
thanks good find, i will file that under sachem

>>27875842
Thats what I was looking for. Interesting. I'm going to find out what paladin is and monitor this thread.

I like rocks and minerals.

Dyllf, this is the second coming of paladin last uranium bull cycle. More so than paladin itself is now.

>>27875383
where do i get some?

Is UUUU gonna moon soon? Should I wait for a drop before buying?

>>27876087
i don't know the old paladin. yes, paladin is under new management. the former CFO is now at yellowcake i think. deep yellow is on my list of shit to look at, because i like the idea of a namibian play.
>i tink dey know de wae

Sup folks. /pmg/ UUUU shill here. How we doing?
>>27875717
I think http://twitter.com/trader_ferg is into them. I started following him towards the end of last year, but stopped going on twitter lately. I need to look into them a bit more.
>>27876784
unironically: https://unitednuclear.com/index.php?main_page=index&cPath=2_4 Bob Lazar's store.

>>27877079
fuck i hate twitter. yeah i'll bookmark him i don't wanna sign up. thanks
lol if this investment/trade works out i will totally buy some of that if legally i can

>>27877079
Do you expect them to offer LEAPS at any point or a dip coming into monday? I wish I had payed better attention to uranium.

>>27877622
checked. hm, good question. I haven't noticed them quite yet, but keep in mind this was technically a penny stock not that long ago (well as of AH today, it's no longer "officially" qualified as one). I suspect now more funds will lash in just like Blackrock recently has done. I've just been buying whatever the latest I can so I have a lot of 3/19s, 4/16s, and have been just rolling some of them out into 7/16s.

What will this look like EOY?

>>27878263
paladin won't look like fucking anything, i am pretty sure of that. i think some hype might double them from here, but nothing real. nothing fundamental is going to happen until middle or late 2022 at the earliest, i think.
i think UUUU will have recurring revenue though. it's basically hooked on a government subsidy now. they're being paid cost plus (without it being called that) to Strategically Stockpile.

>>27878433
My reserves of play money are otherwise low atm - should I wait before getting on this train, then?

>>27878558
probably. i think there's plenty of time to actually read all of this and see if any of my conclusions or any of these other analysts are even remotely right. i always treat it that way; so what if you miss some of it, you have to be pretty sure before you risk anything.
the last bull market started in 2005 and lasted until i guess 2008, so you could have missed a year and still gotten 2/3rds the action. i have a little over $1k in right now just to have my foot in the door. this is under 0.5% of my total portfolio. if things continue to shape up right i will probably still only increase it to 5% at most. mining is still bullshit, and cutthroat. but i think this is both fundamentally sound and capable of a hypetrain whether i have anything to do with it or not.

>>27875717
i was looking at PDN and also PEN (Peninsula Energy). uranium has been running a bit lately and im definitely interested now