/biz/ - Business & Finance

Ahhh yeah. That’s the stuff.

BTWNboys where we at?

Watch out for this company going public. It could literally be a money printer.

It's been a long time since we last had some puzzles. I got you a relevant one this time:

There's an coin that when flipped has an 55% chance of landing on head. You can bet any amount of money you have on it for a double or nothing bet.

You have $1000 dollars and 100 flips. How much money should you bet on each flip to have maximum money on average?

(Hint: it's not "all")

VGAC bros, please fasten your seatbelts

>>27749232
>green fields
I still remember how much marked runes to green fields would sell for back in the day.
>T2A Chesapeake

I asked this in SMG the other day but my question is a lot comfier.
I started investing a year ago and didn't know quite what I was doing. I had a couple grand which I put into stocks, buying maybe 1-5 shares in companies like Nvidia, Microsoft, Moderna, AMD, and some defense & semicondictor ETFs. I would like to streamline my portfolio but almost all the companies I'm holding stock in sound like solid long term holds. I'm no swing trader, I just set and forget. Any ideas on what I should do?

DING DING DING. How comfy did you get today? +1.19% for me. Might as well cut two stocks loose as I'm losing unrealized gains via better substitutes.

>savings eroded by daily inflation
Nooooooo

>>27749612
10 on heads

>>27749232
THE JEWS DID THIS TO ME

What do with my $91 AMD calls expiring 2/5/2021?

stop making these retarded generals. The GME saga is over come home white man >>>/smg/

I sold the pajeet drones for a 2% profit, I'm an expert daytrader now

>>27749737
-3.5%
Can't wait for tomorrow.

>>27749737
only +0,54% but I'm ok with that: better safe than sorry

>>27749737
+0.90%
It might not be much for the gamblers but 1% is my daily goal and this is near enough for comfort.

>>27749737
0.07%

>>27749612
Kek at that file name. I’m glad someone appreciate my pre market puzzle posting. Took a fair bit of effort to find a good one for each day. God I hate probability puzzles, I’ll need to think about that.
>>27749737
-0.04% :(

>>27749692
If you like the companies and they keep going up there's no reason to sell. Just get more money so you can have 100 shares of something to sell covered calls on. Be yourself, fren.

>>27749737
Up 2.68%, almost beat inflation, feels good man

>>27749864
Not exactly.

>>27749924
I’m never leaving and you can’t make me. This is my home now.

when the hell am i gonna get to buy RBLX??

>>27750015
What are your picks novadays puzzlebro?

>>27749924
/smg/ was going through a thread every 20 minutes earlier

>>27749924
>Going faster than 1 thread per hour
>Most posts don't have answers
>50% of the posts are literal spam. Not even trolling but nonsensicalsymbol spamming
No thanks bro.

>>27749924
I'm so warm and cozy here though. I might wander back in a few days when I feel like moving again.

>>27749737
+0.76% I still don't know if I should deleverage PLTR before earnings since it's near 49% of my portfolio but I can't help and feel its either going to moon leading up to it or right after

>>27749737
-1.87%
Got fucked by SAVA.
Easy come, easy go.

>>27750304
The lockup expiration is going to fuck it up after earnings bro.

>>27749924
have they stopped talking about fish yet

>Biden cancels SpaceX
Trust the science.

>>27750443
That's a meme that keeps on memeing.

>>27750501
>>>/smg/
>>>/gmeg/
>>>/literallyanyotherthreadonthisboard/

>>27750501
Nvm might be fake

>>27749612
10 dollar bet on heads every time

>>27750099
explain why not

WKHS above $40 oooooooooo

>>27750196
Nothing that will rock the boat:
AMD
GEVO
NET
Hurts me to admit it but I think the tranny might be onto something too.

>>27749737
+0.40%
(and -$2500 for cutting GME losses of course :^)

>>27749894
pray

>>27749737
+4.63% here, dumped ATOS and SAVA (missed the top but still made a decent gain), IRDM made comfy steady gains (+4.1% because I FOMO'd in at the very lowest possible price for today), my usual genomics (PACB NTLA TWST) did their modest part.

>>27750645
Maybe you should explain why.

>>27749737

>>27750692
I'm in GEVO but it's not done any good for me for the last week or so. I'm starting to think it will crab around for months, and I don't have that kind of patience.

>>27749232
wait i thought this was cunny merchants general.

>>27750749
>IRDM
Wtf is that boomer stock doing? Goddamn, I should put some money into that.

>>27749737
+1.46, with a big thank you to SHOP

>>27750850
I got in at the share offering and plan to hold it for a year or so. See how hard the dems pump the clean energy bubble.

>>27750653
feels good

>>27749612
Didn't do the math but here's my guess: 11 on each flip (1% of the EV)

>>27750942
I became aware of it yesterday when I found it erroneously listed as one of the stocks Cathie Wood was getting rid of and checked them all. It looks extra comfy, mostly today it basically was a straight line.

>>27750910
It is, but putting cunny in the title makes the thread auto sage

>GME pushing towards the $40s
OG coomers, is it our time?

$CLF
02/04/2021
>"New orders for manufactured goods in December, up eight consecutive months, increased $5.2 billion or 1.1 percent to $493.5 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today."

https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/prel/pdf/s-i-o.pdf

$CLF
02/04/2021
>"US trade court dismisses challenge to Section 232 steel tariff"

https://agmetalminer.com/2021/02/04/this-morning-in-metals-us-trade-court-dismisses-challenge-to-section-232-steel-tariff/

>>27751045
>>27750850
Oh I think CCIV could potentially be huge too, if they are Lucid. I like what I’ve seen so far of lucid a lot.

>>27749737
`13.44%+, got a middle range 4 figure portfolio and i'm regaining some losses. Made money with GME and then pissed it away on GME right after - shoulda stepped away from the table lmao

>>27751092
Nope, way more.

>>27751119
Yeah, it looks supremely comfy. I just don't see the reason why it's increasing. Maybe it just gets pulled with all the other space stock?

>>27751222
I'm really afraid of lucid at this point. I don't like to put money where the possible downside is more than 20% (or 30% in some cases).

>>27750563
Fuck, what? Is this that bullshit hiring lawsuit or some FAA safety nonsense?

>>27749737
22%, okay since i haven't really done much this week

>>27751184
100 share buy waiting at $40

>>27751155
Do we have a list of auto sage words/phrases? shota used to on /a/ I think.

>>27749612
something something Kelly criterion
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion

>>27751402
Oh yeah. Totally. Buy them after they become lucid for what I think will be a comfy long term hold. Should dip post merger.

>>27751185
I got 400 bucks of calls and 300 shares that want this to be good news
>CLF goes down on good news
guess it wasn't meant to be.

>>27751606
Too few people know about the Kelly Criterion. They'd have way more rational portfolio if they did.

>>27751769
How are you supposed to estimate the chances of "winning" with an investment, though?

>Snapchat net income
>2020: -$0.9 billion
>2019: -$1.0 billion
>2018: -$1.3 billion
>2017: -$3.4 billion
>2016: -$0.5 billion

>>27749924
Leave, we've made a home here. We fight to protect the comfiness.

>>27751953
All of my friends have switched to Instagram but even then the older we all get the less posts and stories we make. Snapchat's just for hoes now.

>>27751184
Im waiting for it to find a bottom and sit there for a while. No reason to force it and get in early

>>27751953
Remember how they tried to do TV shows? The only thing they have on the app is some news thing that panders entirely to the utmost worst of all zoomers. It's like BuzzFeed but designed for Snapchat

>>27751911
Dunno, gut feel? Maybe past performance (e.g. if you correctly predicted the result of 7 out of 10 biomemes)

>>27751606
>>27751769
I'll admit I didn't know about this, I also interpreted your puzzle as requiring a constant bet but I was still way too conservative
>>27751911
Odds are hard to estimate, but at least "don't go all in on anything even if the odds are favourable" is something many people forget. Trading has a gambling component in it, but too many people go full retard and get burned hoping for big gains.
t. rookie who's recently started trading, I know the basics but I'm playing around with small amounts of money I can easily afford to lose before investing more seriously

>>27752771
The flipside is "don't overdiversify or you will leave money on the table"

You guys ready for the pink catalog?

>>27753189
Absolutely. Can't wait for the zoomer cryptofags to lose their pnd gains

>>27752920
That is also undoubtedly true. As I said I'm pretty new to trading, I currently have small posiitions in SNOW, NYO and XRX.

>>27753281
*NIO

>>27753252
>>27753189
Is the crypto apocalypse really coming tho? There wasn't a spectacular crash like in 2017, it's just kangarooing downwards.

>>27753483
No the entire market crash is coming.

>>27753667
Can we get a time frame? Digits say next week, gamers.

>>27753389
NIO is peak comfy

>>27753806
NOW

>>27753667
The soonest it comes is when the reopening begins and people flood out and try to spend all their saved money.
That's when the proles will notice the inflation and force the Fed to act.
Not a minute before that.

the crash will be in september chill out guys
lord rothschild told me so

>>27753667
>No the entire market crash is coming.
I highly doubt that's going to happen as long as fed funds rate stays near 0

>>27754307
Well as soon as the fed hints at hinting of thinking about raising rates, the algos will immediately crash the market.

Bought SAVA at $6 then emotionally doubled down at $72. Hug me bros im in pain

Insider buying on HZON? People have looked all over and there is no public rumor that would explain the sudden pump for a pre-acquisition SPAC.

Bought SKYW and TMUS ahead of earnings.

>>27753876
Yup, I did my DD and I really think NIO can only go up in the long run unless something very unexpected happens. I also believe in SNOW even if it's probably a bit overpriced atm, it definitely has great potential.

Is a 30% market pullback supposed to be a bad thing? We need a reset anyways so the Golden Bull Run can continue, like in March.

>>27754421
I don't have much to lose in stocks but I'm cashing out everything the very second I hear about that

>ATVI spiking in AH
man, I was considering buying a call on this thing a few hours ago and I forgot about it

>>27754695
>>27754695
Interesting find...what do they know? (but I see it also coming down again now)

>>27754508
nothing wrong with doubling down, what was wrong was holding when the dump was obvious

>t. sold post-peak at $95

>>27754695
BTWN did the same thing twice and still haven't announced shit. AIEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

>>27751953
It's called money laundering

>NOC goes down 3% AH and immediately pops back up
spooky

>>27755605
I bought right before close... also bought SKYW and TMUS though.

>>27749737
Up 2.98%.
BL, ABNB, and YEXT really pulled through.
AMD bros, when will we get back to the triple digits?

>>27749532
When they saying it'll go public?

>>27749532
>>27756320
Damn that will be big. I might sell my AMD for it anons and hold for a few years.

>>27749532
>goes public
>immediately $100B market cap on first day
>crabs down to $40B to mog the retards who bought the IPO day
>jews who underwrote the IPO at $20B laugh all the way to the bank (that they own)
such is the way of the IPO

>>27755730
I would say im between novice and intermediate so didn't really anticipate a dump, trying to take this as a good lesson, probably just gonna hold and pray for good results from trials. pretty optimistic in that regard.

>>27756452
>will be big
*Could* be big, I should've said.

>>27756509
Actually, maybe i should sell my double down and then reinvest when it deflates. what do you think

>>27749532
>>27756492
That's a good point. This could really be the case for this company. It's not like ABNB where the company itself was an industry changer, this company is just making automation software for companies.
If there's no specialization in terms of the software they produce, I bet the scenario you laid out is even more likely.

>>27756492
I thought this would have happened with Snowflake by now but it didn't. US tech stocks are crazy mayne

>>27749995

A percent daily would *25 your initial over a period of 365 days

>>27749737
+1.36% today. just got in this stock shit, got stung by gme and now clawing back to my initial investment by actually using my noggin. great learning experience

>>27756724
Snowflake is pretty well known in the IT space though, so it kind of makes sense.
But it does seems a bit over valued when you compare it to MDB desu

>>27756761
this is inspiring, many drops make a puddle.

>>27756621
If you think it's gonna go down significantly enough, sell so you can buy again later. Only buy when you think the dump is over. This way you think the whole part where you lose a lot of money, the only downside is if you're wrong and it reverses after you sold and end up having to buy back higher than you sold.

>>27750850
GEVO is probably a more 2022 plan tbf, hold for a while and I think it'll pay off if their tech gets bought out.

>my annualized rate of return is 1000%
how do I sustain the obviously unsustainable, or is it better to not try?

>>27756761
you should consider that a year has 253 days, not 365. That's the average number of trading days in New York. So 12x a year then.

Buy SCR

Bill c213 is probably going to be read soon and once it is and legislation goes through for sports gambling in Canada, SCR will take the largest market share.

>go to autistic containment thread instead of gore and scat posting the normies out of /smg/
stop tearing this place apart

>>27756924

Thanks broskie. Btw, You'd go from 1000 to 25000 to 625000 to 15 mil if you could keep it up for 4 years. But this assumes a 4 year long bull market, days of 2 percent covering bad shrinking days, and constant hustling to find the next big thing and guessing correctly.

It's theoretically possible but I think the bear market will fuck us in the ass before we lift off

>>27757104
Count yourself fortunate. It's better not to try getting 1000% ROI annually. To do that, you risk too much.
If you did it once, that already puts you in the top 0.0000000001% investors for that year.
Now make smart moves and research companies on the side to see if you can make 1,000% ROI within the next 5-8 years rather than a single year.

>>27757122

Heh yeah that's why I said 'period of 365 days'. But that 253 number is still a smaller number than I'd expected

>>27756917
Bruh analysts where valuing SNOW at 120 IPO price and that included the bullish speculation premium. Iirc assuming constant revenue and earnings growth it should be valued at 78usd at the time of ipo.

>>27757383
365*5/7 minus a few holidays gets you there

>>27757280
Don't forget the tax man wants his share too anon. The calculations including the tax man taking ~50% of that anon's pie after 150,000K makes it 3 years to get to ~$325,000 if he's going in and out a lot.

>>27757690

REEEEEEEE FUCK YOU TAXMAN

just woke up, another splendid day for us horsebros it seems

The regular general is still of low quality even in AH. I'm grateful you guys are still making these.

>>27757690

I would say not to go in and out at all though, just shift to Gold ETFs if you're insecure about the market (but maybe that's retarded, I'm still a bit new)

>>27757965
It's best during the weekend though still nowhere near as comfy as this.

>>27757946
I will not be mad about realized gains

I will not be mad about realized gains

I will not be MAD ABOUT REALIZED GAINS

AAAAAAAAA

lads, im trying to get my gf to setup a roth IRA. however per the rules she could only contribute "earned income"
if she is currently not employed but worked as recently as last summer, can she still deposit those earnings?

>>27758525
she can contribute to her 2020 balance until april 15, 2021

>>27758358
lel, with so much crabbing I don't blame you.

>>27758729
i just discovered the last time she worked was either summer of 2018 or 2019, not 2020. does it matter WHEN you earned the income, or does it have to be as recently as the previous year's tax filing to contribute for the current year?

>>27756543
Nah, it's guaranteed.

>>27757997
Yeah I agree with you newfren. I'm holding long term personally.
I can't wait for that inflation growth to come again after Biden prints 1 trillion + bucks for Covid and infrastructure for pyramids in Detroit. There should be massive gains.

>>27759163
The hype around a company that makes "automation" is probably enough to get get the boomers excited in my opinion.
Look at ISRG for an example of this. Much of their growth was during R&D without a lot of complete automated surgery products available.

Is price on stock any indication on how secure it is? or just popularity

>>27759783
What

>>27759783
Okay the top is most definitely in.

>>27759143
Yes. Has to be the same tax year.

>>27759783
Are you talking about price per share or the market cap?
>Is price on stock any indication on how secure it is?
Not at all.
>popularity
Not exactly, that's contextual. One company might be popular on /biz/ or within your friend groups for fast gains but the average person hasn't heard about it.
Also, generally companies with massive market caps are pretty familiar with most people. Nokia has a larger market cap but small price per share, so do with that what you will.

>>27757997
Gold etfs are even worse than physical gold and that’s accounting for sales fees

>>27759992
this lmao

>>27759783
Yes the stock market is about which company can get the highest stock price and every month the winner gets a $250,000 prize from the federal reserve.

>>27760224
>>27759992
You lads think it's possible we see a major dump tomorrow similar to last friday?

>>27760136
What's wrong with Sprott? I thought it was run by an autistic goldbug who personally sniffs each bar

>>27760414
no it's categorically impossible

>>27760341
Don’t forget the stock split exemption, those points are awarded based on commitment to business plan and ambition in attempted performance.

>>27760425
Sprott is an exception in that they actually hold material, but still it’s just “exposure” to market. If things go to shit it’ll drop too.

>>27758147
>that pic
Hah. That's what they were bitching about on Bloomberg yesterday. Based Nips.

>>27760564
Short signal

>>27760063
thanks, thats a shame

>>27749737
1.5%, feels good that CLF is doing something so my bag is slightly lighter now. i want to get rid of it as soon as it's profitable, i'm through investing in this shit stock

>>27760658
>if the price of gold goes down my physical gold ETF will go down
Well yes, next you'll tell me QQQ goes down when NASDAQ goes down

>>27749924
I vote indefinitely comfy

>>27759783
Yes, stocks usually go up or down by fixed amounts based on trading activity.

Stocks that get sold a lot tend to go down while stocks that get bought a lot tend to go up.

The increase and decrease is based on volume, so when you look at TSLA, it's a secure stock because it has a nice large price.

So when people sell a million shares of a 50$ stock, it has more of an impact than on tesla that is an 850$ stock, because while they both go down 5$ from a million sales, 5$ from 850 isn't much, but 5$ from 50 is a whopping 10%.

This is one of the main contributing factors to wealth inequality, as the less fortunate are priced out of secure, highly priced stock. It's why Berkshire Hathaway is one of the most prized stocks on the market for stability.

>>27760808
Tell her to get a job. Lots of places hiring now that boomers are too scared to work.

>>27749612
1000*(0.55-(0.45/1))=100 on the first bet, I'm too lazy to calculate the sum over the probability distribution, and I also made the parentheses extra obvious to avoid the division fight again.

>>27760933
shes still a student, i think she'll be able to contribute the amount she receives from her scholarship to the roth from the reading ive been doing

>>27760926
/cmg/ is self-regulating, if the main thread is comfy and everyone is posting there /cmg/ naturally drops off because of low post volume

>>27760920
Usually during “rough times” gold prices go up. This is more “great depression” situation, which is what most metelheads are hedging against.

SHRMF finally doing more board changes.

>>27761069
most goldbugs are retarded preppers, I just want exposure to the commodity

>>27761049
Roth is for taxed income only, scolerships usually don’t count. If you have an account with a bank check if they do “planning meetings” they often can answer these sorts of questions for free without technically giving financial advice, ei they can tell you what you can contribute but not whether you should or not.

>>27761185
Then an ETF is fine. Just check how it tracks alongside the actual price. Some are better than others.
I’ve heard only good things about sprott but I get financial advice from crows so probably get a second opinion.

>>27761059
So I vote with my presence & does anybody else here have high hopes for PHUN

why did it make me laugh, haha. Fuck seething dumpers

this tards still try to give their shit coins
rofl

and they hope that this will works, what a dumpers

I just use poolz and their staking services, presale will be soon and I will make nice $$

>>27760414
I don't know what you're in, but I think generally the market will be okay. Biden has the economy hostage with his Covid and infrastructure plans.
If people pull out and then he announces he's printing 1.9 trillion dollars, then there will be a mad rush back into the market. So any losses until then, if there are any, should be minimal. I'm holding in the stock market just because of that.
Behind the scenes they're planning what they're going to be doing. I expect more talk about this by summer for sure if it doesn't happen in the next few months.

>>27761261
i read on investopedia that often times scholarships are taxed, but i really wont know until i see her return. were the stimulus checks taxed? i make too much to get one so i have no idea
thanks for the help and tip though. i use fidelity but ill try to find someone with an account through a bank

>>27749737
5.87%

>>27751911
Part performance and risk models. It's basically what quants do, although my understanding is that the Kelly criterion isn't that popular, and even the firms that do it do something like half-Kelly.
>>27752771
When people do Kelly in the stock market, it usually tells them to leverage, ie bet everything they have and then some.

>>27760926
Hear! hear!

>>27761371
Yup. PHYS and PSLV for basic exposure.

>>27761482
I've got high hopes for Kaho's fat ass.

>>27760092
nokia is exactly what sparked my question. it's an ancient company with chump change price for a stock while blackrock inc is relative new with a hefty 700 dollar per share cost
>>27760932
>berkshire hathaway
good lord, do you get a free car along with the share prize. jokes aside thank you very much for the explanation

Can you feel it anons? Things are returning to normal in /biz/

>>27760932
>Yes, stocks usually go up or down
>go down
lol

>>27761059
Yeah, you do see this thread taper off late at night when the Redditors are slamming some CRAFT IPAs in the BAR of their city living.

>>27762014
>BAR
I read you loud and clear fren.

>>27761927
Yes. Soon(TM).

>>27761927
/smg/ is still going through 5 threads an hour at market peak

>>27761911
market cap. price per share multiplied by the number of shares.

>>27761674
>When people do Kelly in the stock market, it usually tells them to leverage, ie bet everything they have and then some.
I didn't know about that specific criterion but I do have some statistics education and after what I read about it that's definitely not the case, unless people are absurdly overconfident about risk vs. gain, i.e. they grossly overestimate their odds. If anything, you should be more conservative in a situation where odds aren't a given

>>27761927
im thinking next week we'll be in the clear

>>27761911
yeah, it's all about the market cap really. In terms of price per share, Nokia looks low but really they just have a bunch of shares which makes the price per share what it is while being a $20 billion company

>>27762272
It's going to take a little while before I return there. I really do enjoy these comfy threads anons.

>VIX futures creeping up

Should I liquidate at market open?

>>27763688
these threads might still have a place during market hours, it was still dogshit even weeks before the GME squeeze during market hours and was great after hours and on weekends. these threads are basically like that but on weekdays

>>27751184
>>27751496
What is this about limit orders?
I see a -40% day, I sell puts.

>>27763860
idk

>>27763782
They mocked me but soon they will know pain.

>>27764162

>>27763981
Questrade hasn't transfered my account yet so I can't play options. Wealthsimple is not a good broker.

>>27764162
You're going to be waiting a while yet, but they'll expect one of us in the wreckage, brother.

>>27763860
>>27764091
I think last Friday's dump was more due to GME nonsense driven volatility than anything else, it rebounded hard this week. I don't think there's a real reason to cash everything in tomorrow. but who knows

>>27763374
I don't know what to tell you, fren, I also have a "tiny" bit of statistics education and I can safely tell you that that's the outcome of a conventional Black-Scholes estimator when using the continuous version of the Kelley criterion. As I said before, full Kelley has you gamble so aggressively on stocks that even the firms that use it go half-Kelley.

>>27754783
No, minor pullbacks in a bullrun are bullish. The DXY and the 10Y yield rising while indexes being green all week makes no sense to me.

>>27763981
Can't fucking sell puts in a TFSA for whatever fucking reason

>>27765351
I think because:

Lets say you have a 60% win rate, Kelly says use 20% per trade. Lets say we have 10k pot, so we use 2k on a trade. But this is based off the fact we price risk of share going to 0. Which is not really realistic is it or optimum. Will Apple go to zero overnight? So we can base the 20% on our "actual risk" instead, so say we use a 10% stop loss on apple, and now if we go all in on apple (10k) thats only 1k risk, not even the 20% Kelly stats. We need to use leverage x2. Now we use leverage we expose ourself to risks Kelly didnt plan for. What if we arent trading apple but something else much more risky/smaller, what if it gaps down 20-30% due to some overnight news, which can easily happen. Now Kelly assumed risk is blew out of the water due to both gaping beyond our original "10% risk" and also due to leverage on top to meet the "Kelly 20%".

Kind of long winded, but maybe you see what I mean.

>>27761059
>/cmg/ is self-regulating, if the main thread is comfy and everyone is posting there /cmg/ naturally drops off because of low post volume
How can I use this to make money? An algo that captures and compares /cmg/ and /smg/ volume?

>>27766584
Nature is healing

>>27766797
Wait, you can't? Even with a broker that supports options? Fuck.

>>27768279
Not on Questrade anyway. I talked to them about it and they said you can't sell puts in a registered account, so that might be the same for a RRSP too. Should honestly throw 4k into my margin account just for that put.

>>27768279
Nature is cleansing.

Anyone know why she was so high and whether she will come back up? I miss her.