/biz/ - Business & Finance

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T. Brainlet

>>27602579
>Implying that the United States Federal Government will exist in Anno Domini 2051.
kek

>>27602579
1.9% a year for bonds? is that good?

>>27602669
If number there go up more, everything while either crash ecause the fed does nothing or will moon in dollars while crashing in real terms because the dollar is worthless and the fed did too much

>>27602579
i don't even know what bonds are or how they work

Still low as fuck and below inflation targets.

Literally paying the US government to store your wealth.

>>27602896
Lol no.
A Wendy's cheeseburger has gone up ~8%/yr since 08. Burgers are getting wrecked by inflation and don't even know it.
(Actual figure)

>>27602896
Better returns than most boomers can get on their own.

>>27602579
>boomer investing
>takes 5+ years to double your initial investment
>crypto investing
>get a 1,000x return in a year
Yeah, miss me with that boomer shit

>>27602896
No.

>>27602963
Go look at yields going back 5 years. This is low and returning to normal.

>>27603201
Yeah, which is why the stock market (and all inflationary investments) will crash if this goes up much higher.

>>27603180
AAA government bonds at best will only slightly under preform inflation these days. It's not about making money. It's about holding value when you already have a massive stack. The main purchasers are financial institutions using them in escarows for refunding bonds, and other national banks.

>>27603630
Then why didn't it crash before Corona when it was much higher and corporate debt was already a record to GDP and the market juiced to shit?

You're right that the market will crash if interest rates move even a little bit, look at what a few basis point swing did in 2018, but that was before infinite Fed purchases of corporates. Basically, large caps are immune to bankruptcy until the pandemic is deemed over. Very little risk.

I'd be issuing more debt funded dividends now if I was a CEO. Get while the money is free.

>>27603948
It literally blew up the world's overnight lending facility? QE started before corona realistically.

>>27602579
>>27602963
>>27603630
what do you think the number is that breaks it? and what happens if they implement YCC?
>>27603180
you don't understand the thread

We cant support a 2% interest this will bring us down eventually

>>27602579
>Over 5% inflation

Why not hold it in cash?

>>27604815
Buy AAVE LMFAO

What are they gonna do when people realize they can get a positive yield on stablecoins through an uncensorable market accessible to anyone with an internet connection?

A storm is brewing and not many understand it yet

>>27602579
The United States won't exist in 30 years.

>>27605053
Unironically feel this way.

>>27602579
Increasing yield means decreasing bond value. Now would probably be a bad time to buy bonds because you're buying into a shit yield and it can really only go up (meaning price goes down).

>>27604631
>>27605053
I'm not sure but definitely north of 2%. Most of the US debt is pretty short duration. I'm assuming someone in the fed was whispering into Mnuchin's ear saying that they can't push their effective durations out much further. Everyone knows that the US government is effectively insolvent on the 30y, so it's already a bubble.
The 10y is much more important, and it's only at 112 bps.
But you are pretty much taking the same risk with the 10y as you are with the 30y at this point, so if the 30y really starts moving people forced to hold dollar bonds will sell 10y and buy 30y if they legally can.
Then you also have Basel III (who knows when actually implemented) giving int'l banks a way to reduce dollar exposure.

>>27605053
It does have the look of a declining civilization. I'm still 40% in US stocks though. Don't see another option.

>>27603201
>This is low and returning to normal.
yes but there is much more debt now retarded, so the same interest rate is a much heavier burden on the economy

absolute n00b here. can someone explain what this means?

>>27606013
line go up mean other lines go down :(

>>27602579
>30 year
who tf cares lmao
>10 year
Fed will YCC this bitch into the ground at least until boomers die off and their pensions go away

>>27605363
are people like Yellen interested in preventing economic catastrophe outside of their lifetimes? She made the statement "we will not see another one within 'our' lifetimes" but both her and biden are 400 years old so I am interested if the old vampire class have any sort of guiding philosophy in them as stewards of our country or are they just gonna say fuck it i'm out.

>>27603201
>This is low and returning to normal
if it returns to normal it drags every-fucking-thing down with it. the fed has been dropping rates in an attempt to keep the economy chugging along, albeit reluctantly

>>27603677
>will only slightly under preform inflation these days
>at best will only slightly under perform the official inflation figures these days and massively under perform real inflation

>>27605360
You can buy ETF to short bonds. I would recommend a leveraged one if you want a good return. This has been free money since the bottom.

>>27603180
>>27603677
Both are correct.
This is trash for Making mega gains.
If you want security for your CURRENT gains while they increase at a low but safe rate, you go with this.

Multiple avenues of increasing your portfolio is where it's at.

>>27606785
>fuck it i'm out.
This. We have one more generation of gravy train so that the boomers can peace out in style. Once the millenials hit average age of 50, it's over (18-20) years.

>>27607083
You're right. Smart money would've been short EDV since summer.

>>27602896
You lose money with 1.9%.

>>27607170
Krustchev told America that their children will be communists. I believe he was talking to the newborn children of that generation.

>>27605573
Take the orange pill

>>27604960
>stablecoins
but there is no such thing. unless you mean gold coins.

>>27602579
buy physical assets, nitwit