/biz/ - Business & Finance

>market collapse
>not good
Choose one, I only do this garbage so I don't have to work. If money is all of a sudden worthless I don't even have to do this anymore.

>>27225390
oooooh we got an edgy anarchist on our hands.

"so I don't have to work" that says it all. The type of person you are and your character is something to be laughed at. I actually feel sorry for you because you have an narrow view on life and as such you probably suffer from massive cognitive dissonance

>>27225042
Huh I didnt have the edit with the smoke yet, thanks anon.

>>27225650
leave this board and never come back

>>27225650
Probably that fat Jesus guy Tim Pool hangs out with. Is anyone out there more cringe?

>>27225687
You are welcome!

>>27225042
Don’t be afraid everything is as it should be, it’s just a ride

Protip time: The market downturn is coming, but we don't know when. It could be 2 months ahead, or 18. It could already be happening.

But first, take a look at the last huge downturn, the dotcom pop. Every zoomer idiot here imagines it as a single day 50% drop, but that's not true. It was a slow descent over months a year with a dead cat bounce at the end of year.

The play now should be investing into 1-2 month plays, which either pay off or not, but sell after 2 months.This way you will not be affected by a month-long donwturn. Once these plays start to dry up, or simply not work out, we will know it's a recession, cash out and wait. Reinvest when opportunities start propping up.

The main takeaway is buying boomer ETFs are idiotic, divvie stocks even more so, and 6 month long plays are actually riskier than meme shit. Do meme shit and enjoy the monthly 30% while it lasts.

>>27226272
Damn, this was really helpful. Thanks.

>>27226272
>The main takeaway is buying boomer ETFs are idiotic, divvie stocks even more so,
Thanks now know to buy dividend stocks and ETFs. Whatever is the opposite of what you say is wise

>>27227290
Suit yourself. I'll do that once we reach the actual bear market phase.

>>27225042
Never understood this meme. The FED is more than happy to flood the economy with money. Just because it’s federal doesn’t mean it is underneath the country’s rules. If anything I’d say a crash wouldn’t even affect the fed.

>>27225650
Cognitive dissonance isn't a synonym for retard, by the way, retard. If you don't get his point you're invested wrong. The more the dollar crashes, the more my wealth increases relative to it because my worth is disproportionately invested in other assets. The bigger the bang, the bigger my gains against the dollar are.

>>27225650
Stay seething, faggot

Market cannot crash. There is 6 trillion dollars that did not exist 1 year ago. It's impossible. Plus, the FED won't even let it happen.

>>27227631
>FED won't even let it happen.
Stocks going down is literally illegal now.

>>27225042

>>27225042
I know what you mean.something doesnt feel right. i think everything is going to crash. I mean everything.

>>27227662
Plus if we are to see a crash, it's definitely not going to happen during a pandemic.

>>27227402
better suited to deal with inflation dividend payouts have been much less volatile than stock prices throughout history

>>27225042
It'll collapse in the spring again
>economy starts to "open up"
>companies they can't use covid as an excuse
>everyone sees that the economy is actually fucking dead and covid has nothing to do with it
>the only thing propping up the zombie market, stimmies, stop coming

>>27226272
How fucked is the USD?

>>27227750
Nah crypto will moon. People will need to hide somewhere and they're not all buying shiny rocks

>>27227902
You are comparing two passive investment forms (puttign everything into growqth stocks and waiting, and puttign everthing into divvies and waiting)
I'm advocating for active investmenting and trading on volatility.
Of course if you only want to passively invest, divvie stocks and non-cyclical consumer staples are pretty good.

all indicators are bullish lel
sorry not sorry bearfags

What’s the best way to capitalize on imminent market collapse? Keep an all cash portfolio and buy what at the bottom?

>>27225042
>>27225687

>>27225650
sneed

>>27225650
Look at this retard

>>27227402
>>27227902
So aside from less volatility and being better suited to deal with inflation why ETFs, well if you knew fuck all(and I don;t think you do) and wanted toi maintain a collection of dividend stocks and trade them in and out in order to ensure you had a minimum dividend you would find it a)expensive as trading fees hit and b)difficeult to line your need to trade up with ex dividend date, which is why .3% etfs that do that for you with e.g dividend aritos or high yield are a better bet. When a market crashes your dividend % rockets, you get cash coming in to buy while the markets are down, with a compounding interest effect, leaving you...wealthy. You will never be wealthy, you will spend your whole life looking for lottery wins and scams like gme. (Link is not such a scam). Anyhow, I have held over 32 million on the markets for nearly 30 years (I got stock options in the 90s) you on the other hand are well....poor

>>27228087
Only if you can time the bottom. A ton of people actually lost money in the downturn last March.
Also, see >>27226272

I see few scenarios where this might go:

1. With the recent coming of new investors, I don't think the market will crash just yet. Sure, P/E ratios are way up on meme stocks, but smart money wants these maniacs to invest their new lottery money from GME before crashing the market. As someone put it, it is a tulip mania once again, but this time with stocks. Then it will crash.

2. Due to ATHs economy will take a downturn soon enough, because everybody is scared to buy anything with these prices. This will be a great advice >>27226272

3. >>27225042 gif related.
Money printing is infinite since 2020. Inflation will crash the economy eventaually.

>>27228164
ok boomer

>>27226272
>divvie stocks even more so
Depends on a divvie stock. Nothing's happening to my Philip Morris. Smokers will keep smoking even if they're rounded up and put in covid camps. Oil, mining, real estate companies are set to go up as real prices of oil, shiny rocks and real estate moon

>>27226272
>The play now should be investing into 1-2 month plays
>Once these plays start to dry up, or simply not work out
This is what I've been doing since september. This month all of my plays failed, so I've pulled out of the market entirely. Went heavily into VIX on monday in anticipation for what's coming.

>>27228241
GenX you pathetic zoomer faggot. Now fuck off and put your rent money in gme like a good little drone

I haven’t seen this amount of people, who less than three weeks ago had no clue about the stock market, suddenly ask me if putting all their money in meme stocks like GME and AMC. I’m getting big dotcom bubble vibes with the amount of speculation going on with record ATHs on nearly every blue chip on the market while our economy is taking a massive shit.

Coupled with the fact there’s still liquidity issues even with the Fed’s intervention leaves me feeling a foreboding sense we’re teetering to something big.

>>27226272
There is already a recession. You are thinking of a bear market.

>>27228276
I've rotated my plays from EV shit to SPACs then to biomemes, and now in some of the shortmemes. Biomemes still pay very well if you know how to choose them (Up on AUPH and NVAX, not looking at VXRT).
You just have to find which sector has the most PnD potential, it's different every month.

>>27228277
Seethe harder geezer. The future is now and you will eb left behind.

SHORT THE STOCK MARKET

>>27228281
The dotcom shit went on for like a year after every fucking normie started "investing" in scam companies.

>>27228337
Yeah, you're right. I've corrected the paste for next time.

>muh crash
>muh dollar
>muh money printer
>muh black swan
>muh shoe shine boy
>muh ATH

>>27225042
FASTER

>>27228418
>Seethe harder geezer. The future is now and you will eb left behind.
There future is now? I hold stocks, agri land tenanted, forestry food supply, oil, art, gold, silver property in three countries, racehorses (its a tax thing), link, eth, antique arms and armour and I'm diversified across the US, western EU and UK in three currencies. All of it bought a prices that would make you weep because they were down/unfashionable. You fuck off with your nonsense. I have a low P/E, high return, large cap large value. You keep chasing faries kid. I was already a millionaire twice over at 28 and I'm 49 now.

>>27228087
If I had no idea what I was doing, I would DCA my way into stocks on the way down.

>S&P down 30%? 25% of money into stocks
>S&P down 40%? 25% of money into stocks
>S&P down 50%? 25% of money into stocks
>S&P down 60%? 25% of money into stocks

>>27227983
Very and has been

>>27228087
Stocks of companies you know aren't going to fold and will be relevant. Microsoft and apple would be my best examples. Also companies that focus on a product that is resistant to the conditions - e.g., mining companies because no social distancing, less supply chain disruption than average, shiny rocks and materials desired to hedge against inflation etc. Obviously the right pharma companies would have been amazing but that's more big brained than just blanket buying mining shit like I did lol

>>27226272
i think 2000 and 2021 are very different and the crash is much faster this time then it was in 2000, think about it, in 2000 people still red paper newspapers and shit, this day we get a full twitter full spam mode in every social media or wherever that things are fucking fucked in few hours.

>>27225650
>narrow view on life

All while your view of life is
>work, reprimanding anti wagie behavior outside works, thinking about work as much possible

This is what you are, pick two
>has narrow view on life
>slave

>>27228688
>boasting with wealth on a message board
Why are you trying to impress people here of all places? Pretty sad if you ask me.

>>27228277
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7fMPmkPz18o

>>27228688
Lol a tax thing huh? How many race horses do you own?

>>27228900
This place had a few brains in it on eth and link. Now its just zoomers wanking about shitstocks and zerohedge tier wanking
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7fMPmkPz18o

>>27229116
>Lol a tax thing huh? How many race horses do you own?
Two they are in a jurisdiction with 100% tax exemption on them and 0% tax on the horse flesh trade. I'm in good company with anyone who has serious money to.

>>27226272
What if I have a multi bagger play but it might take until around November or December 2021 to yield me the minimum 3x I expect?

I have a lot of money on this play alone and with what you said it puts me in a hard position. I've been holding this position for quite some time and don't want to sell as it's only about 11 months away from pulling it off with the research ive done.

In your opinion what is the most likely time frame where stocks just enter a downtrend across the board?

>>27225042
Thanks just shorted Tesla and Amazon

>>27229213
>In your opinion what is the most likely time frame where stocks just enter a downtrend across the board?
That is quite literally impossible to tell.
Is your yield gradual? Because you can just exit whenever you want, maybe with not as much profit.
Is it probabilistic (i.e. it will happen sometime between now and December, causing an instant 3x)? Because then it's kind of risky if you ask me.
Is it going to start going up around e.g. september, and you are quite sure about this timing? In that case why not just cash out and rebuy in september?
I guess you could also buy some LEAP puts as insurance.

>>27229489
Gradual unfortunately. Provided it follows the past indicators (which it has been doing).

I'm pretty much left in a situation where the only choice is to hold and get a multibagger, enough to neet modestly for at least 3 years straight, or cash out and have literally no moves left and probably get heavily demoralised.

>>27225650
you will never be a woman
I will get rich enough so that instead of working I can just get BJs from a FWTDHWAHQUD

>>27229773
Does it follow general market trends? Or is it somewhat decoupled? How robust is it? Is it tech?
We are looking at 50% downturn on the SP500, so if your pick can gain m3x on that, you are still 1.5x up. If it's a zombie company that will fold as soon as VC money and free debts dry up, then you are in trouble.
If it's tech, or worse, EV/green energy shit, the downturn is more like 70-80%, not 50%.

>>27229489
Also yes it can be probabilistic. Two key variables are the difference between it being a gradual multibagger or an instant multibagger. More than likely it'll be gradual. The third variable, the sector somehow gets meme'd and I can take my gains immediately, would be great considering how long this hold has been going. First time I didnt impatiently sell a large chunk of options.

>>27228281
This is, empirically, a very good indication of a price bubble. In particular when inexperienced investors enter a market they tend to create bubbles. You can google for papers, there are many. This robinhood class of investor didn't all just get in yesterday, they've been here for at least a year or more in significant number and creating what's soon to be a blow off in my view. Writing is on the wall with institutions deleveraging. That's something being attributed to the recent short squeezes, but it was happening prior as well, and I expect institutions to not be reactionary but to look further ahead. Ie, they see what we're seeing with the quality of market participation and are calling bullshit on multiples.
>divorce of stock market from traditional economic metrics
We normally expect delay on these but it is rather concerning.
Anyways guys it's going to feel like a super big, massive situation, but it won't really be much more than a bog standard price contraction. We haven't had one in twelveish years so for many this will be their first meltdown and feel worse than it is.
What do I expect? Mean reversion.

>>27225650
Imagine browsing reddit

>>27229959
Somewhat decoupled. Sometimes market goes up and it goes down. Other times market goes down and it goes up.

Company is well managed, I've looked into them a lot and their past performance. It's the only reason I can put so much of my life savings in without getting nervous the moment it dips a little only mad because I wasnt able to get it a bit cheaper for an even bigger gain lol. Not tech or ev stuff so I should be fine. Those 2 sectors spook me too much at these prices.

>>27227532
I've been meaning to ask this, but what do you have in order to hedge against the dollar? I was think btc and paper gold (because I'm not a retard who thinks physical gold is ever useful)

>>27230000
>>27230199

What is it then? I'm pretty interested at this point. (Sharing it helps pumping it too)

no lie I was going to make a post after just coming out of a silver thread above you, of how this is all so fucked and this was the thirteenth post. sure GME was fun, now silver? creating a war situation against the second biggest metal commodity? I moved to my apartment six years ago and there are bars on the window and nobody else has them (first floor apt) on my floor of seven including mine (three floor low rise in a nice area of a major city). I would joke to neighbours and friends that I'd be good in a zombie apocalypse, and since Covid has started that joke became a bit more worrying. now this shit happening? Washington surrounded in fences, military, March the war month only two months away. things feel off, this isn't sustainable. all you zoomers thinking this shit is cool are playing with fire. and it's fucked because a big part is fueled by greed to get rich quick veiled in some kind of "rebellion". if you have a shit you would've made noise when Ron Paul and Bernie Sanders had their nomination stolen, and Trump's relection stolen. you're picking a war where the ramifications collapse society.

read this

https://personalliberty.com/one-year-in-hell/

>>27230249
It depends on what you want to do. Gold is a favorite for maintaining a stable real value. The old saying is that an ounce of gold in 1850 bought you a nice suit and it still does. So it can shelter you from inflation. Hedging against deflation is maybe silly because you are better off holding the dollar.
If you want to hedge by taking inverse exposure to inflation you buy things that are commonly traded for the dollar to clear the hurdle rate. These are the bulk of assets. Equities, real estate, some debt.
A hyperinflation condition would break most of the economy though.

>>27230712
I'm guessing hyperinflation is coming considering all these pump and dumps and potential bail outs as these companies fuck up.
Holding the actual cash and possibly doing the 2 month investment games is also good, but requires more attention that I might not be able to give.
Or just buy land once property values tank and rent it out.

>>27228506
This is my feeling as well. There is no telling how long a mania will continue, but we at least observe now that there is substantial new market participation. I think it's fair to say we are in the "buy everything" phase.
I am also not happy about the compression of the rate range and it appears that its effectiveness as an expansionary tool has diminished to practically nothing. I am sure our friends at the fed would prefer to have higher rates, but can't make them stick, this is an ongoing issue that probably could have bottomed out higher naturally if not for the 2008 crisis. I am most concerned about this because their most effective tool has become balance sheet expansion, QE, personally I think it is poisonous. It is not something that can easily be turned on and off but needs to be unwound in a slow painful type of way.
>>27231062
Hyperinflation is not a risk. Pic related is part of why. We are at the greatest risk of entering a Japan-esque period of stagnation.

>cut off the x
Oops
Period from 1955 to 2021

>>27225650
Nice slave mentality retard, I love waking up in the morning just knowing I’ll partake in a system that doesn’t give a fuck about me but I’m supposed to give my life to it

>>27231715
>Japan-esque period of stagnation.
I love how they called it the "lost decade" before it became the lost 3 decades.

>>27225650
kill yourself soi

Also, in hyperinflation, we expect asset prices across the board to be higher as the real value of assets will not change but the value of the currency they're denominated in will. You would not see a stock market crash in a hyperinflation condition. You'd see something more like a ridiculous expansion. The problem that arises is no one wants to own the currency when the purchasing power is falling, so they may exchange it for other currencies, or do literally anything else with it except saving. Eventually the currency dies as it becomes impractical to quote prices in it.
>>27231995
What killed Japanese growth is what we're doing now, on the financial end at least, though population trends are important. Our population trends are still less than ideal. Honestly, this may be why rates remain so compressed, but I'm not sure for how much longer we can keep doing this.

>>27232340
I'm pretty sure it also has to do with Japanese culture and their extremely conservative views. They are very good at perfecting and optimizing things, but do not do as much actual innovation as the west.

>>27232473
Japan was quite competitive in international trade, so much so they nearly wrecked the US domestic auto market, Japan's lost decade is largely a result of a credit crisis, not shocking, I am sure their culture contributed to the long winded nature of it though. Here we say fuck em, let them fail, they are big believers of too big to fail.

>>27233338
Seeing Japan spike up is a better indicator than any treasury yield curve now that I think about it.

>>27233742
Heh. It may be
Wait til you see pic rel
The catalyst for their liquidity crisis is the exaggerated rate hike in '90, driving rates to the floor, we can't do negative rates because they break incentives. Thus downward rate manipulation cannot be used to drive inflation
I wonder if this is where we are headed in slow motion as our range continues to tighten