/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>26112503
Depends on where you live. I doubt youre correct for my area.

>>26112503
similar in the UK, government last year stopped stamp duty (a tax for selling a property over a certain amount) to save the housing market over the covid crisis, people tried to take advantage of this bought houses to get the tax break and now the economy is still shit but all this property has been bid up

God i hope so, daddy needs a new mansion.

>>26112503
bubblicious, the banks own everything anyway

Ok, cool. What happens when real estate goes bearish?

>>26112503
>simping for landlords

>>26112503
real estate IS in a bubble but it's extremely hard to call the top with any accuracy since the currency is going to shit

Going to be honest I've been waiting for "the big housing crash" since I graduated 4-5 years ago. Take a page from Europe and realize that this shit really does go up forever over time.

>>26112688
There’s so much pent up demand it won’t even go bearish it will just go to the incredibly expensive prices not seen since 2015
The only thing that can stop asset inflation is higher interest rates and that’s not happening

>>26112746
pretty much this
>>26112751
theres not going to be a crash, there is going to be inflation and houses will get inflated less so in real terms they will fall in value but will be going up in price, its the only way forward

>>26112688
>>26112746
It’s not a bubble tho. You realize we are expecting the world to get another 2 billion people over the next 50 years right? That means demand for housing will be greater than ever. The only way the “bubble” could pop is with a massive die off of the human population

>>26112503
american real estate was fucked as soon as BLM started burning down all property.... that obviously will make property insurance go sky high and put everyone off the housing market and cause housing market to die.

The housing market will never crash. Its not a bubble. Buy now OP or get outpriced.

>>26112886
>people talking about housing
>MUH BLM
Back to /pol/ schizo

>>26112846
> a massive die off of the human population
what do you think the covid vaccine is for?

>>26112503
The problem is inventory is still way lower than demand.. there are a ton of people sitting on the sidelines because they can't find the property they want.. not even a price issue, they literally just can't find a house for sale. Even if we booted a few million people out in some massive foreclosure crisis, those houses would instantly get bought up.

2008- nobody saw a crash coming

2020 - everyone things housing will crash

There will be a correction, but I'm not calling the top yet. I think you'll be lucky if we correct back to current prices.

>>26112503
fuck landlords

>>26112503
Maybe in some areas, not in Arizona though.

>all these people posting that real estate will NEVER crash
yeah... its coming in the next 2 years thanks for the intel.

>>26112975
>The problem is inventory is still way lower than demand.. there are a ton of people sitting on the sidelines because they can't find the property they want.. not even a price issue, they literally just can't find a house for sale. Even if we booted a few million people out in some massive foreclosure crisis, those houses would instantly get bought up.
there's plenty of houses for sale everywhere, just go on zillow, fag

>>26112983
Just don’t rent a house. It’s that easy.

>>26112846
>and every last one of them will earn a lot of money and seek to buy their own property
Absolutely fucking not. Miss me with that fucking retarded "the population is always growing" bullshit.

>>26112503
interesting take OP, thanks for the heads up. This would be hype as fuck i hope real estate crashes hard.

>>26113052
its not going to happen, but it will inflate its way cheaper

>>26112846
Houses will increase in value as commie blocks and pods pop up.
You’re either going to live in a 1200sqft SFH with no garage for $1.5 million or you’re going to live an Amazon pod with Jamal and Caitlyn (formerly Brian)
I’ll see you smart niggers in South America where we will finish what the German mass immigration wave started

>>26112947
>massive

MASSIVE XXXXDDD just the flu broo

also the 2 billion people are being shit out overproportionally in countries that dont participate in the western market. le macaroni, merkel and biden cant ship them all over to the west

>>26112503
You're not wrong (except landlords are part of the problem, fuck em), but you're forgetting that ZOG will never ever allow the real estate bubble to ever collapse again. They will sacrifice everything and everyone else so long as property values continue to climb.

>>26112846
most of those will be in asia and africa, and it's not like we're running out of living space (food is a different matter) the entire population of the world could fit in the grand canyon

>>26112846
2 billion poor as fuck africans are not going to inflate the real estate market further

>>26113024
In my market people are settling for 15 year old manufactured houses with plastic walls because thats the best they can find, and they are selling for same prices as brick houses. That should tell you something about inventory.

>infinite money
>finite housing
sorry, housing will never go down in terms of money

>>26112934
>back to /lgbt/

>>26113159
They will when the government dumps them into our country with mass immigration

>>26113069
yes. this is a possible option. prices will stagnate or rise slowly but in real terms they will be rapidly decreasing as the dollar inflates and other assets gain in value proportionately.
This makes sense too as it would keep the population happy that their house is "going up in value" but they dont realize in real terms its actually losing value.
This seems to be the path we will go down

property market like everything else is a house of cards, western countries have removed significant load bearing elements, and then artificially propped them up but that isn't going to last long

>>26112503
Why? As long as interest rates are low, prices are not going to fall. Also, the dollar keeps inflating, which will push real estate even higher.

>>26112886

reading this made me want to voluntarily admit myself to an asylum

>>26112994
I paid 7k over asking for my house near glendale last year around july. I've heard people offering 40k over asking now in phoenix. I dont think az will have a huge correction if it happens. Too many west coasters moving here.

>>26113256
im not exactly sure
all i know is that banks are in big trouble
the system we are in is not sustainable and the cracks that were patched are starting to leak again
im sure a big bank defaulting would cause some fear and a selloff but not sure if it would be sustained

>>26112503

Cities are already having their correction - longer time on market, price drops, desperation rents. Even with this 20% off of highs housing is still doubled since 2012-2014. It’s a joke since even distressed owners can just dump (at a profit) to an investor that’ll hodl until rents recover.

>>26112503
My dad is currently in the process of selling a home for like 5x the value he bought it at, that's in some shitty neighborhood, and needs a lot of work. You're probably right.

>>26113210
>implying even 1% of them will have the agency to get a mortgage
they're all gonna be homeless and/or do the public housing bit

>>26112975
Lol where? Nebraska? My mom bought here house in 01 for $180k and it’s now worth $700k and it’s a piece of shit built in 1920. It’s also in a city that’s been fucking bombarded with third world immigrants which reinforces a later point in my last response to a different anon in this post
Real estate is not going to crash. Interest rates are low, funny money is high, demand is high.
>>26113184
Someone gets it
>>26113159
>immigrants pour in
>need to live somewhere
>demand goes up
>demand to get away from Africans also goes up
>rents go up
>property values go up
How do you not understand this?

>>26113178
yeah, it tells me we're near the top of some insane bubble kek. enjoy it while it lasts. meanwhile I'll continue to stack crypto, get rich, and be a "rentfag".

>>26112503
Join the commodity train faggot.
Countertrades are lucrative

>>26112503
Cities are fucked, housing is fucked, land is where it's at. After rona shit's about to become way more decentralized - not in the crypto sense, but rather in the physically-spread-out sense.

Buy land away from cities but within driveable distance. Make sure you have enough space to grow produce and chickens shit like that. It's all gonna doomp so that it can be "rebuilt back better"

when money value drops, it's a good time to get a mortgage, as the loan will only decrease over time, even if you're not paying it off. this will keep housing prices up until interest rates goes up

>>26112772
You sure higher interest rates won't happen? All this takes is for Saudi Arabia and China to turn the other way and for immigrants (especially Chinese immigrants who bid up prices) to stop coming to the US.

All of this seems very bearish for US/UK/Canada/Australia/NZ real estate. Americans themselves are broke.

>>26112688
>>26112677
checked. when foreclosures skyrocket and i get rich off XRP i'm going to make a community land trust and singlehandedly revitalize my city

I like to go to open house viewings in my best suit and chat loudly amongst the panicked normies about how I'm thinking of offering 10% above ask price on this property. Need to spark the FOMO, accelerate the bubble inflation.

i agree with everything you're saying but it won't crash yet. they are at the end of ouyr monetary system and will print so much cash before ultimately resetting it. we have 1-2 more years of explosive growth

>>26113178
That's the current market. Just wait for congress to pull the rug on the CARES and HEROES act. They aren't going to continue propping up the bubble.

For as long as the economy is shutdown, prices will rise.

>>26113446
yep.
the amount of people who have the mindset that real estate can never dump or they fixed the correction problem is enough to tell me we are currently in the blow off top.

>>26113446
No one is saying you shouldn’t own crypto rather than real estate. You can’t but a fraction of a house like you can btc that’s why it gets outbid because it’s all or nothing.
All assets are going to keep pumping. Peoples purchasing power will keep sinking.
Welcome to the great reset

>>26113515

I go to open houses to make sure normies realize they’re about to drop close to a million to be 2 blocks away from the projects.

>>26113481
The fed has been saying for years that interest rates won’t go up because everything not just real estate will come crashing down when it does.
Let me know when you can get 1% on a 5 year bond

>>26113550
We still have a couple of months. When COVID goes away we will see a massive dump in stocks, real estate and bonds (bonds are the least affected, the shorter the maturity the better).

>>26113542
i see it. banks will default eventually
i have a feeling most dont understand how banks are in trouble right now
thats when the top is in

>>26113652
>The fed has been saying for years that interest rates won’t go up because everything not just real estate will come crashing down when it does.
yeah that doesn't sound like a bubble about to burst at all bro

>>26112503
All I know is that in New York, yes
Prices near dropped 5% in like a day this month and people aren't even buying that dip up according to the rented housing information I see online

>>26113696
it seems to me that everyone claiming that real estate will never correct are those who hold real estate and are afflicted by a heavy bias due to not wanting to lose money on their investment.
Very rookie mistake to make in any type of financial market.

This is putting upwards pressure on mortgages.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y/

>>26113696
When everything is in a bubble it’s the currency that’s in a bubble

>>26112503
imagine thinking that housing prices are ever going to be affordable for the average goyim again. you're delusional. this is the beginnings of the great reset, and step 1 is and always has been to price the goyim out of owning real estate.

>>26112503
Crypto borrowing on tokenized assets. Defi in general. Creation of more and more markets.

>>26113765
I have zero real estate nor do I want any.
I’m very comfortable being fully positioned into btc, paying $700/mo in rent and earning the equivelant to my salary in unrealized gains every few months.
>real estate is a bubble
>stocks are a bubble
>crypto is a bubble
>the dollar isn’t
Lol ok

>>26113850
i think that if you believe that the goal of the great reset is to destroy the middle class the ultimate play would be to destroy the real estate market. Thats the most common way for someone to gain an economic foothold in their local community. It is very similar to a small business.
Also boomers plan on selling their house to cash out and retire so destroy those sales would, again, weaken the middle class.
This is theoretical but if that were the end game then a weakened real estate market is their goal, not a strong one.

>>26113765

It will never crash again. I'm sure of it.

>>26112503

>>26113727
Because New York successfully regulated everyone out of the city and they’re moving to more business friendly states. If you live in the Midwest or south you can expect a bunch of NY faggots ruining whatever good thing you have going on

All into CLF

I remember when some idiot on here swore up and down the dollar couldn't fail. Look at it now. It already needed endless wars to maintain any legitimacy, it's in real trouble now.

>>26113765
so you will accept no counterarguments

>>26112503
>Infinity mexicans getting housing subsidies
>Infinity chinese/poos lined up to gobble anything that ever pops up 'below market value'
>Infinity dollarydoo printing
Real estate is never going down

>>26112751
Except the market we see is fraudulent, the eviction moratorium is building up a chain reaction that will have to be dealt with. Either through the mass printing of money (and subsequently inflation) or a massive crash.

>>26114498
well they've already done the first due to rona and the housing market is sucking up the inflation like a swamp in a bucket of water

>>26114498
UBI is coming

The 11 million immigrants plus the millions of others will get their twenty friends and relatives will pull their resources and live in a two bedroom house while working for cash.

Rich people will continue to buy boomer homes as they die and rent them to said immigrants.

>>26114300
i accept counterarguments
i havent yet heard any decent ones to my original points.
all i hear is that fomo is occurring which is even more indicative of a blow off top in progress.

>>26112934
Why is there a midwit normie invasion on this board? Were your room temp takes too risqué for your yoga book club group on Facebook?

>>26112503
My cuckshed is valued at 300k which is a joke since it's not even 1100 square feet. It's all based on low supply with 2.5% interest rates of course it's going to fuel the growth.

>>26114300
your arguement according to this post >>26113475
is that the value of usd is dropping causing homes values to rise as they are being speculated on as a safe haven.
I feel as if my arguments in the OP counter this point, as you are basically saying is that people are foming in due to fear of a weakening dollar.
This means if there is volatility and a deflationary period then it would be a collapse of the market.

>>26114956
what do you mean, we have very reasoned arguments such as this:
>>26113960
it's not a bubble dude. infinity niggers and shit

>>26114956
Fomo has been occuring since 2015-2016

>>26115102
yes. housing market is an illiquid market with a lot of momentum so it is sort of like turning a cargo ship. It takes time. As well as the obvious policy changes that help to prop it up

>>26115102
so has mo. fomo doesn't mean that mo can't happen

>>26113542
What does the reset entail? And how to prep

>>26115069
eventually maybe, but the inflation needs to happen first, it's not time to get out yet. you're going to have to rent for another decade before the pop

>>26112503
The real estate bubble should just be considered a high risk loan bubble.

>>26112931
God are you stupid kid.
There are 4 million people in forebearance programs. More than double 08, 1.4 million office spaces are in the same type of trouble.
Fannie Mae estimates 20% of their 8 million plus mortgages are delinquent! You are the dumbest fucking cunt I have ever encountered, even real estate agents are prepping for the worst crash since 08.
Fucking drink bleach please.

>>26116144
no way dude, see, infinite money printing + niggers and spics coming in means houses will never crash in value ever again. dont you get it maaaaan

>>26113432
You are an idiot kid. Look at the math, housing is done moron.
You can’t have increased real estate prices when CA just raised property taxes. How fucking stupid are you? African immigrants don’t make the real estate market go up idiot! They make it go down.
No one wants to live around immigrants! How are you this stupid! They are not giving immigrants a million dollars to buy condos in CA! Even if they did, that would make the market go down because no one would want to live there.

I can borrow for below inflation, how is that high risk?

Zoomers are retarded

>>26116266
Honestly you shouldn't be helping these people. They deserve to be poor. Don't give wagies any useful information, just tell them to buy speculative assets before the crash so you can dump your bags on them.

>>26116144
how much of that is due to lock down

so what do i do right now:

>if there is a crash?
>if there isnt a crash?

>>26116210
Giving houses to niggers and spics does not make the market go up. It makes it go down dude.
Housing prices are correlated not just on demand but by people wanting to live in that area. That’s why no one buys in Detroit, Compton, or shitholes like that, plenty of houses and people for them but no money or profit. Unless you are a slumlord and then again prices go down not up.

>>26116351
Good point anon, I let my compassion get the better of me.

Wait for the literal boomers to die in Florida going to be dirt cheap

>>26116266
>>26116395
people are going to live somewhere, if nogs are taking whole neighborhoods out of the market that only increases demand elsewhere. obviously you should buy in a good area and hope it stays good

>>26116347
>assets value drops in half
>now you owe 500k on a 250k asset
boomers are retarded holy fugg no wonder why its so easy to outsmart them

>>26113481
Bro there are chinks in fl and everyone i talk to who is looking to buy a house is white

>>26112503
I don’t think real estate values will drop. The elite kikes want to keep real estate unaffordable so that whites can’t start a family easily

>>26113806
Haha came here to post this
Watch Lyn Alden much?

>>26116653
by the time the asset is halved the loan has been decimated by inflation and your wages have tripled

>>26116376
The question is what will the dollar buy in 5 years? If 90% of your things are "Made in China", and tomorrow China decides to buy less US product, what do you think that would do to prices or interest rates. Thankfully China still depends on the US for keeping shipping open for them, and food but the BRI would change all that.

I can tell you this would result in negative earnings for anyone who bases their entire business model on the China trade.

>>26116944
>he thinks inflation leads to increased wages
how do boomers like you even manage to get on the internet?
its a genuine question.

>>26116751
They want you to go back to work.

What better way to do this than to turn your asset into a liability by increasing interest rates.

>>26116640
ah you're already equivocating i see. so now it's not that real estate will always go up. it will only go up in select places. kek

>>26117062
i grow and sell apples. price of apples go up, my wages go up

>>26112503
Would it then be wise to purchase real estate when this happens? I’ve been considering doing this and also now but from what I reason it might not be a wise decision from an investment perspective because who would be able to pay the mortgage on it. I’m thinking that quality tenants will be hard to come by.

>>26117162
When the prices of goods and wages go up (inflation), profits go down.

>>26112503

Would be great if the CCP would let up on their fucking op giving their bugs millions of dollars to come here and buy out all of the real estate in every major American city.

>>26117099
they've gone up more in downtown la than in bumfuck nowhere, yes?

>>26112846
Sure, but that will be seen in the third world. I’d hate to experience that many people coming into my country and driving demand higher than it already is.

>>26112503
If a hard crash was coming, it would have come during 2020.
What we instead will see is that governments around the world will increase taxes to pay off their corona debts, leading to a slow down in economic growth. This will lead to a reduced growth in housing prices over several years, possibly at sub-inflation levels.

>>26117309
maybe you should get mad at the american officials allowing chinks to buy and sit on properties in america, retard. CCP is just a scapegoat.

>>26117162
>into the mind of a boomer brain
kek no wonder your generation is about to get absolutely ass fucked by (((them))) you guys are worthless

>>26117353
>it won't crash, the g-growth will just slow down considerably...
ok mr. increasingly nervous mortgage holder

>>26112696
The attack on property owners and landlords on /biz/ is the direct result of years of Reddit users like yourself moving to the board. The arguments given against letting property owners charge money for using their properties all stem from typical Communist arguments.

>How dare you make me pay for using your property!
>The people should own it not landlords!
>I deserve to live in x city.
>You are a leech for owning property!
>Property is a public right, no private entity can own it!

>>26117353
Theyre going to eliminate physical currency and bring in digital fiat, they think this will eliminate their estimated 12% of under the table transactions. Probably will, normies wont pay me in crypto when i sell something on craigslist.

>>26117434

Since 2008, everyone has been claiming the housing market is a bubble that’s going to burst, “just wait 2 weeks, bro” - yet it doesn’t happen because central banks continue to prop up assets by giving printed dollars directly to financial firms to buy and hodl distressed assets indefinitely. Refute this without being a goldbug-tier retard.

>>26116751
/thread

>>26113685
Banks wont default because the FED does not require any reserves and the FED will print whatever money they need.

Residential real estate is fairly priced. Buying power is lower and everything feels more expensive.
Commercial real estate is stretched and may become problematic.

>>26117869
It's the low monthly payment that is driving demand for housing. People are chasing the monthly payment and they're willing to borrow more for less.

The house + land + labor is not worth the prices they're paying.

>>26117062
Boomers made the internet bub.

>>26117738
you just said it yourself as to why and how banks will default. think about it then come back friend.
how do banks make money?

>>26116144
>even real estate agents are prepping for the worst crash since 08.
If everyone expects a crash it won’t happen. It’s priced in.

>>26117549
these are all unironically true

>>26113351
even condos are soaring in prices, feels bad man

>>26112503
In general I think you're correct. But I have to ask...

How did you narrow the timeline of your prediction down to that 30 second window?

>>26118273
There was a good research paper (looking for source now) about how commercial banks these days are all making way more money from asset appreciation then they are from loan interest spreads. You also have to notice how the direct benefactors of QE are the commercial banks that sell the treasuries and MBS to the Fed, and in return receive reserve balances that earn 0.1% interest (paid for by the US Taxpayercucks).

At the same time, those commercial banks are so stacked with cash equivalents, when assets take a dip or get liquidated (including real estate) they will be the only ones with enough capital to have a shopping spree and basically buy everything at a yuge discount.

Real question bros, why would anyone buy a fucking condo? Where I live the fees range from 500-800/month, on top of all your other bills. Is there a reason for this insanity? Is it just to price out "certain" demographics?

>>26117623
If that were the case, wouldn't you expect prices to behave like they did in Japan?
JCB has been doing QE since the 90s, in the same way we are set to do over the next decade. Prices peaked in 1991 and have not yet recovered.
>CBs give printed dollars directly to financial firms
But you know that QE is just a trade of a bond for a reserve balance. The bank that made the trade is no richer or poorer afterwards.

>>26120042
the fees are painful but in return you literally never have to buy or even think about large scale repairs. The parking, the roof, the plumbing, the exterior, it all just maintains itself. Might not be the best value but the peace of mind of knowing all that shit is someone else's problem is pretty comfy

t. condolord

>>26120279
How big (units)? Are the repairs costly and how much of the condo fees end up in profit?

>>26116395
Lmao, people are buying in Compton, why are you using California real estate as an example when you know next to nothing about California real estate?

>>26112503
As much as we want it to crash, it won’t. The rich are getting tremendously rich in the last few months because of the covid and they are buying property aggressively.
t. Realtor mom

>>26121138
Pls be my wife

>>26112975
>there are a ton of people sitting on the sidelines because they can't find the property they want.. not even a price issue, they literally just can't find a house for sale
This. I've been looking for two years in my market but there is just nothing but dogshit out there. Rotting 100yr bungalows, condos with paper thin walls in a rundown 16-plex, shitty foreclosure flips that all have that same nasty gray faux-wood laminate flooring and home depot kitchen in them, or just an endless procession of 4br 3000sqft plastic mcmansions, or the house is simply located in niggerville. I'm a single dude who wants a 1000sqft 2br in a nice part of town that's been kept up well. That's literally it. Those are my requirements. And I have seen maybe literally just two of those in the 2 years I've been looking and they both listed for less than 24 hours before accepting an offer 15-20% over list price. I would have even been willing to pay that much, but I literally didn't even get a chance to look inside them before they accepted a blind offer from some asshole who's richer than me. They probably waived the inspection too because why not and fuck me.

>>26113159
Lol, you're apparently not living in germany.

>>26113958
>the goal of the great reset is to destroy the middle class the ultimate play would be to destroy the real estate market.
Makes no sense actually. Destroying RE would ruin a generation of boomers who are getting ready for retirement, but they're not working-age, they don't really count as middle-class for demographic purposes. If anything they're a drag on the real middle class since they have to pay in to fund boomers' social security and medicare. If housing crashed boomers could go die in a gutter and all the zoomers, millennials, and some gen xers could actually secure permanent housing at a price that doesn't bankrupt them for life.

So it seems to me that crashing the housing market would save the middle class, not destroy it. Which is why I think it'll never happen.

>>26116376
>so what do i do right now:
>if there is a crash?
buy bitcoin
>if there isnt a crash?
buy bitcoin

What about raw rural land? Any anons investing in land?

>>26112531
Same. Everyone is fleeing to Texas to escape liberal lockdown hellholes. My house gained 30% in value since September.

>>26122309
I'm buying farmland

>>26112947
To protect the obedient cattle from the mutated strains that will kill all of the skeptics and conspiracy theorists because they were retarded to not take the vaccine.