/biz/ - Business & Finance

I think under 20k and then settle around there for a while before heading back up to 40k

>>25840458
What is bitcoin?

>>25840540
Interesting, how many time you think will pass between 20k and 40k?
I would say (if your theory is true) two years approx, but I bet some kind anon will disagree with me

Come on, gentlemen, don't be ashamed of sharing your honest opinions, you are among friends

>>25840540
I dont know, I hope we get some more market hysteria but above 40k sounds a bit silly really. We could be between 20 and 40 for a long time.

>>25841060
How long is "long time"?

>>25841309
similar to the last few years I suppose

>>25840943
who needs enemies with friends like you fags?

Anyone here thinks btc can go as low as 3k like the last time or are we in a very different paradigm?

>>25841714
How rude

>>25840458
It lost approximately 80% of its value after the first crash so that means it should bottom out around $8,200 if the same pattern holds true. I think it will bottom out around 9-10k and I think the recovery will happen a lot faster as well. More people and institutions are watching this time around and now people are excited about the crash so they can scoop up "cheap" btc and try to live out the fantasy of being an overnight millionaire.

Got out at $40.5K. Sitting on the sidelines for now until the tether dust settles. Still bullish long term but desu I am unsure how this will progress.

Will be going back to the defi world for a while and play with small change.

>>25842243
I got out at 37k, not perfect but I think I dodge the ball.
When do you plan to buy back?

>>25841795
Its possibly but only if Tether unironically exit scams

any stablecoins?

I want you to repeat this every hour.

It's going to be going up tomorrow. It will hit 50K by the end of the month. It will hit 100K in February.

>>25842798
Maybe if Tether turns on their printer.

Dump till 15 when tether date passes. Then pump. Sell the FUD, buy the NEWS.

I was personally going to sell this last bull run at 35-50k, but.....!

With covid-19 and all this money printing, all this internet censorship, it's like a god damn perfect storm for bitcoin. I'm buying into the 200k meme, and while id like to sell and rebuy lower to accumulate BTC, I don't need the cash and I'm afraid of losing my BTC at 40k.

I'll hold to next halving if this is the top, otherwise I'll see eventually where this price settles.

Personally I think Tether pumped BTC and is a fraud. But, less risk now due to other stable coins in existance unlike 2017. Worst case TUSD vs USDT pairs lose 1:1 and btc to USDT goes through the roof. People sell all their USDT to BTC to exist scam. Only ones holding the bag are USDT holders. I hold BTC not USDT.

>>25842572
I'd start buying 12k to 7k all in. (Long play bottom of this run 2-3 years)

The lower the better really, I’d like to go all in when it appears to be at its lowest, which I assume will be around 10-20k based on where the price was at before *that tweet*

got some money ready to buy the dip of the dip, should i wait till friday or even longer ?

My target is 400, no more. I have a shiny stack of silver dimes for libertarians to suck my cock for.

>>25840738
DYOR
Lurking is necessary to learn
This is a bitcoin

>>25840458
13K, next question my dad works on the Bittcorn board of trustees

>>25841839
I think he was trying to be nice fren
>>25840943
I have no idea. But it's doing a little bounce right now. I don't expect it to settle some around 23k USD +/- (3/4k). But that's only speculation based on the 2017 crash. Lost a little above 50% of it value from the peak. Opinions on this? I know it's a wide range but idk

>>25841655
It would not be similar at all to the past few years to bounce between 0% and 100% off the old ATH. That would be first of its kind behavior.

>>25842110
I'm trying to be nice but what you're describing is not the old pattern at all.
The old patterns are 10x off the previous ATH in a series of 150% gain, 30% loss rises and consolidations.
If it falls 80% from $40k it lands below the previous ATH which is not characteristic at all after a halving event rally.
And for fundamental reasons it doesn't even make sense for this to happen, the reason why prices adjust so aggressively like this after halvings is because of the supply shock created by the effective mining difficulty doubling. That is, half as much output for the same effort. You can measure this ratio and see that it converges with price in the time after halving, but immediately after a halving, it drops suddenly. The convergence after the drop is what causes these rallies. This ratio has not converged or returned to the mean yet

OP has yet to post his own predictions. OP is not a gentleman.

Stop the greed, start thinking long term.
Hold your fucking coins and buy more. Btc will reach a ridiculous level in the next years, just watch the past. It doesn’t matter if it crashes again or not. In the long term the ones with the most coins will laugh the loudest.

>>25840458
the 200WMA support will never be definitively broken
It's easy to defend this support as the USD supply inflates to infinity while the BTC supply doesn't.

100 monthly moving average ~4k right now

>>25844334
dont tell me what to do cunt

>>25844409
100MMA has never acted as support.
200WMA has acted as epic support for 5+ years. It's currently at $8k. It's a self-fulfilling prophecy now. Everyone will bet the farm on the 200WMA long.
BTC will never go below $10k ever again.

>>25842110
Except this wasn’t the scarcity pump. That won’t happen until EOY.

>>25844306
if you're so convicted why not sell high and buy the dips?

>>25840458
>>25840540
>>25840742
>>25841060
>>25841655
>>25841795
>>25842110
>>25843060
>>25843453
You people don't understand how the cycles work.

>>25844106
this guy does

After first cycle 20 monthly support, after second cycle, 50 monthly support.

Now is it 50 monthly support again? twice in a row.

Or do we need to consolidate on 100 monthly to keep the trend going?

26-30k is the bottom
People who think this was the top will be selling me their bags at a loss

>>25844982
The cycle movement is too aggressive and breaks most conventional indicators like MA, BB, etc
The trend is highly dependent on fundamental factors (mining)
You will never see it at the 100, it is below the miner break-even point (this has never been crossed)
It does need to consolidate because the price was running too quickly.
More on this
https://digitalik.net/btc/sf_multiple
See also: Burger's power oscillator and power law regression

"100MMA has never acted as support."

No not yet, but 50MMA has (when you think the 200WMA was support in 2015) and 20MMA has in 2012 when there was no 200WMA.

This idea that 200WMA is constant support is crude. What was support before it existed? Can it sill be support as cycles lengthen?

>>25844106
Thanks fren! But what does it mean in terms of price? Merci!

Miners will just have to HODL will price settles or sell at a loss for a while.

The price of Oil has gone below cost to extract/refine. Same for any commodity at times.

>>25840458
We already bottomed.

If it goes lower, it will be a quick scam wick and back up.

>>25844154
True, my friend.
I think the bottom is approximately 15-10k

>>25845397
>Miners will just have to HODL
No. They get fees for every transaction. In sum, these fees currently add up to 1mio usd per hour.
t.trust me.

>>25845507
I'm thinking something similar, 8-13k.

>>25845333
Ck'd
It means hold
>>25845397
Oil has a cartel. But it also gets physically destroyed when used. The stock isn't sticky. Oil refiners can stop producing and sit on their stock and assume the thinning will improve pricing. Not the same in btc
Not the same for all commodities, gold is an example

and?

if running an oil company / rig / mine etc you have constant fees that add up. Price can still go below your sum of fees.

>>25845619
Aiai, captain! See uuu and think uuu!

Also, important note, oil drillers and refiners can accelerate output when prices are higher (which drives them down) but btc miners can't do this.

>>25845590
>8-13k.

cor blimey, you aving a laugh mate?

>cheeky wanker

If I may speak as a representative for all normie investors, who've read & learned about Bitcoin with great interest in the last month: rest assured we're ready to buy in, price just needs to drop a tad lower. The volatility is what's scaring us rn.

>>25845740
Read up on it if you don't believe me.

>blabla halving
>Blabla miners

Tether is just printing pixels and buying btc with it, and normies follow the hype. Then tether sells and reaps normies money who sell at loss, btc crash, rinse and repeat

>>25845866
sure, like it did in 2017 correct?

>>25845777
Ck'd again
Volatility remains high and is going to be present for a long while yet. It's getting lower over time as the market becomes more liquid. Unironically requires people to jump in for the volatility to subside
Expect it to narrow in uhh ten years or so.
>>25845866
Explain why the pricing effects we see today were still present prior to 2014 when there was no tether.

>>25845866
So nobody buys BTC. Only normies and Tether. Ok.

>>25845839

strike a light i misstagged you m8, my post was meant for this cheeky wanker here

>>25845599

>>25841714
cute timestamp

>>25846031
no worries

>>25840458
So far the major trend I have discerned from Bitcoin's price action since $10k is the cucking of cash gang bears. Every dip has been just short of what the bears were waiting for as an acceptable entry point, leaving them with cash and dick in hand waiting for the next dip.
Thus I think $30k might be the bottom of this dip, since it seems loads of cash gang bears are now hoping for $20k-$25k.

>>25844824
You don't know what is high and what is a dip. It is easy to time it wrong.

>>25846068
you may be right thats exactly what happened to me was about to drop enough for 0.15btc right below 30k and then u turn now is too expensive, trusting the chinks and indians to bring it down with their greed

>>25841714
Enemies are sometimes your best friends, as you learn from them.

>>25846307
idk yesterday gave lots of indication the market was going to go through another correction just like last monday before it dropped to 27k but it rebounded quickly so people dont remember. I sold yesterday precisely because i knew this would happen, didnt buy it on the days low but made 15% now waiting on a bigger dip to convert more fiat into my pile

it went down to 3k for about 30 minutes last time then up to 6k again. im guessing it will go down to 8k back up to 12k or something in 30 minutes or an hour or something.

>>25847445
you'll do exactly as you're told, when I tell you

im not talking about this dip im talking about over the next year or two.

>>25840458
Current predictions of bottom floor is 18k at the lowest. Probably will be somewhere between 18k-23k before entering bearmode. It will absolutely enter another bull run and rocket to 60kish at very least before it retreats. 100k by EOY is very feasible this year.

Weak hands shouldn't trade right now. Wait for the floor.

>>25847587
April Anon.

>>25842110
If everyone is waiting for a crash to buy in, it means a crash will never come. BTC will never go below $30k again.