/biz/ - Business & Finance

EUPHORIA

wont be making that same mistake twice

I did. I was telling everyone to sell, it was an obvious top in terms of TA, events (the start of futures was the top, and the final tradeable event), sentiment, etc.

But no one listened. If you warned people you got banned from chats, buried in abuse on forums, etc. "Stop ruining the vibe, bro!"

"Salty nocoiner detected!!!"

It was pretty obvious we'd near enough peaked.

I knew it was the top, just had a feeling, actually the day before the big crash I was sat in my car on a break at work watching the traffic and thinking to myself "it can't go up forever, this must be near the top" at the moment I thought that a truck drove past that said "massive bear" on the side. True story. I still didn't sell though because i'm retarded and delusional

>>24152670
this. stake profits one year no matter what the prices are

>>24152648
Because in the moment people are drunk off euphoria. Everyone was calling for 100k bitcoin, 500k bitcoin, and 1 million bitcoin. Everyone was completely blinded and delusional

>>24152648
The thing is, nobody really knows. The common belief is normie money fomod it to those levels. This is probably only a small factor though. The reality is a single trader on bitfinex who had an inside track on tether singely drive the final run from 10 to 20k.
This might be happening again right now actually, or it might really be an organic pump from iran, paypal, square, and grayscale plus some manipulation.
I feel like the right move really right now is to go into any stablecoin but javent because just like 17 i am greedy...

We had big dips the whole way up. That's why I missed this one, actually. I have been waiting on a 30% dip since it went from $3,600 to $8,000

>>24152648
I remember walking down the street, in the gym, at work, hearing normies talking about altcoins. still didn't sell.

>>24152848
This is very likely the right move...

>>24152933
>still didn't sell.
Digits confirms hodl.

>>24152648
hindsight is 20/ 20
I knew that most alts were insanely overvalued, but it wasn't obvious to me that BTC and ETH wouldn't go higher. If BTC had kept mooning to $50k or even $100k then it would've have been a big mistake to sell at $17k.
Lots of "smart" people had sold their crypto WAY earlier (at $700, at $1k... at $5k... at $8k) after making sick gains. But it kep going higher and higher.. and higher.. It was impossible to say where the top would be.

>>24152670
Yes I learned my lesson last time.

>>24152648
It would have kept going if left untouched. It was no coincidence that the bubble popped once they introduced BTC futures - https://bitcoinerx.com/bitcoin/trump-administration-used-market-forces-to-deflate-bitcoin-bubble/

>>24152736
What I’m confused about/what worries me is that that ride lasted for like a month up which seems like plenty of time to be like “this can’t last forever” especially if you’re non-normie enough to browse here. I plan on riding up like two weeks into the euphoria with a good portion of my portfolio considering how long that vertical run up last time lasted. I’m scared and excited.

>>24152979
btw. if this is the BTC top ($18.5k) then there will be tons of people talking about how "obvious" it was that BTC wouldn't break the ATH resistance, how manipulated the markets were, how dumb people were for not selling etc.

>>24152648
In 2017 I planned on selling large amounts in early January no matter what to not repeat 2014. This time I'm not selling, maybe 10-20% max for expenses but I'm not trying to chase the local top.

>>24152648

I was in a state of euphoria. I thought it was going to at least 40k if not 1 million. I bought into the "hodl" meme. I never accepted it. But I stuck around and made a ton of money in this bull run. I started to feel that same euphoria and this time I'm going to cash out soon.

>>24153032
lots (if not most) oldfags said to themselves "this can't last forever". But people were saying that at WAY lower prices. People who bought at $50 couldn't believe that BTC suddenly was trading at $1k and sold... People who bought at $300 couldn't believe that BTC suddenly was trading at $3k and sold..
The bull run to $20k wasn't the first time where people though things seemed way too good to be true (and eventually were proven wrong).

Why worry now, not selling anything till late 2021-2022

>>24152989
>It was no coincidence that the bubble popped once they introduced BTC futures
This is definitely true regardless of all else. Charlie Lee called it btw. He is the insiders insider, pretty sure he was still at coinbase even. He tweeted to get out of the market before jan 18th which was the day futures started trading. He knew, he told us all to get out.

>>24152648

You literally couldn’t sell the top if you held your BTC on cuckbase because they went down for hours at the ATH. Only people who could tether on other exchanges could do so

>>24154048
Imagine perfectly timing the top and getting cucked by CB.

>>24152648
As someone who was actually there the whole way up and down and has been in crypto for 7 years, it was impossible to know at the time that 20k was the top. The entire way up from 2015-2017 the 20 week SMA had been strong support and tested multiple times. The first clue that this was finally over was when the weekly candle finally closed below in late January, but by then you were already at 8k and very quickly after that the final dump to 5k. By then it was already too late to do anything and everyone who tried to make moves from then on out likely got whipsawed for an entire year before finally getting raped on the fall to 3k in Dec 2018. Calling bottoms is much easier than calling tops, which is why I chose to just dollar cost average out of the market in 2017. Didn't get the top tick pricing by any means but i was almost entirely out by the time it crashed. Gonna do the same this time around too.

I thought the top was 12k so I sold then bought in again later. Calling tops in a volatile market are way harder than calling bottoms

Set incremental sell points.

What I'm surprised nobody has mentioned yet, because it was a huge deal, was that there weren't any safe crypto hedges at the time. Your options were cash out to fiat, pay taxes, and get off the ride, stay in and YOLO, or use tether.
But tether at the time was shady as fuck. They'd kicked their auditors out, been kicked out of their host bank, a blogger called Bitfinexed was releasing post after post about how shady they were.
There was an honest fear that tether was on the edge of exit scamming, and as it started dumping that fear only increased.
People trading today have no idea how lucky they are to have a whole range of stablecoins, including fully backed ones, decentralized ones, etc.
Back in 2017 your only option to hedge was in something that seemed on way shakier ground than the crypto you were holding. That had a big part in it.
Its a clearly different scenario now where if it starts to really crash you can just go into a safe stablecoin and then even get 10% apr on top of that by using it to provide liquidity or something.

>>24153455
the smart people new what the futures meant and got out. Trump unironically bogged the whole crypto market

At the time a big use case was simply "computer money" and the volatility of btc was considered its worst aspect.

During the late bull run:
Tether started satisfying that use case on a large scale.
Bitmex multiplied their volume to became one of the most powerful and opaque elements in crypto.
Regulated future markets opened, traditionally they are tools to reduce volatility of commodities for farmers and miners.

My average sell price was $15k.

That's why I don't give a fuck about selling.

Passive income only baby

>>24152648
I thought it would continue to rise and that it was just a dip. But I DID sell at the top because my job went bankrupt and I needed the money. But I thought I was losing out, but the ETH was worthless soon after. I lucked out.