/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>23785235
you don’t
we all lose
enjoy having all your wealth and values siphoned away by the black hole of ideology

the cia determines who the next president is based on a super computer AI that calculates the best line of action for nuclear deterrence through game theory. being involved or concerned with politics is on the same level as rooting for teams in the NFL. the only reason im mad he lost is niggers and jews are happy

>>23785235
Drumpf is taking it to the courts, prepare for national chimpout if he wins

>>23785357
Based schizo

>>23785235
Biden already talked about his policies. He intends to implement a 40% capital gains tax, and that he intends to dismantle the US petroleum sector entirely (yet somehow we are expected to believe he won in pa).

But you don't have to worry. He will be dead soon and cameltoe will get her chance to take all the guns and put 50% wealth tax on everyone making above 75k. :)

>>23785491
Where can I get a list of possible actions and outcomes from his decisions and declaration?

Well, I found this, if /biz/ find anything else relevant and serious, please share.
https://www.moodysanalytics.com/-/media/article/2020/the-macroeconomic-consequences-trump-vs-biden.pdf

>>23785235
Buy the fucking dip

>>23785938
Reading through this now I can't wrap my head around a few things...

>Biden's paid family leave and elder care plans would increase labor force participation
Wut? Where is the relationship between the 2 concepts? NEETs gonna NEET even harder if they get paid family leave and free boomer care.

>Increased spending on higher education and early childhood education would raise the educational attainment of workers. Increased global trade and foreign immigration would increase the size of the workforce, both skilled and unskilled, and support stronger productivity.
Debatable if this really supports stronger productivity; benefit to the worker - evidence is to the contrary just looking at Europe, where Masters of Science make a whopping 35k per year. Also more workers = less salary for all. Law of diminishing returns. etc.

>During Biden’s presidency, the average American household’s real after-tax income increases by approximately $4,800.
By inflation? I'll remember to keep track of this number.

>These benefits to long-term growth will more than offset the economic costs from the higher marginal corporate and personal tax rates under his plan that reduce the incentives to save, invest and work, the disincentives to work and save from the larger social benefits, and the higher federal minimum wage that would be phased in over a long enough period to mitigate much of its negative effects on jobs.
Can't make much sense of this but I agree about the reduced incentive to work "and that's a good thing" so it seems.

gridlock for 2 years until next senate election

just keep doing what you been doing

>>23786206
>Where is the relationship between the 2 concepts
The implication is that someone who takes care of kids or elderly family member could work outside the home

>>23786206
The incentive to work part means make the cost of living go up so much that you have to wage cuck every waking hr just to live in a trailer

>>23785938
Also, in all scenarios they say we start with 108% debt to GDP, and maybe get to 130% by the end of the decade.
Debt to GDP is already 135%!

>Fed funds rate = 2.5% by 2025
top kek, this kills the country.

>>23786206
I am a physicist, not sure of what I will say, take it with a grain of salt.

>>Biden's paid family leave and elder care plans would increase labor force participation
>Wut? Where is the relationship between the 2 concepts? NEETs gonna NEET even harder if they get paid family leave and free boomer care.


Probably increasing people access to those would mean more money to spend on vacation and goods. NEETs are irrelevant to the economy.

>>Increased spending on higher education and early childhood education would raise the educational attainment of workers. Increased global trade and foreign immigration would increase the size of the workforce, both skilled and unskilled, and support stronger productivity.
>Debatable if this really supports stronger productivity; benefit to the worker - evidence is to the contrary just looking at Europe, where Masters of Science make a whopping 35k per year. Also more workers = less salary for all. Law of diminishing returns. etc.

More workers more workfoce, more education more educated people. I don't get your point, lower salary doesn't mean decreased in labor production. I can back this up with a graphic of labor production by salary corrected by inflation

>>These benefits to long-term growth will more than offset the economic costs from the higher marginal corporate and personal tax rates under his plan that reduce the incentives to save, invest and work, the disincentives to work and save from the larger social benefits, and the higher federal minimum wage that would be phased in over a long enough period to mitigate much of its negative effects on jobs.
>Can't make much sense of this but I agree about the reduced incentive to work "and that's a good thing" so it seems.
.
Yeap this phrase is too confuse and long, I would take points if it was one of my students... It isnt clear what negative effects it will have on jobs. I don't see relation of social well fare and people not looking for jobs.Its boring no to work

>>23786368
Yeap, look like USA will get fucked if they don't start to tax the fucking plutocrats and share the money they keep hidden. You guys need to fix your shit or we will need to be communist and speak Chinese by the end of the century. China is more and more producing more knowledge and taking right decisions, you guys are always trying to rape other countries with spying, lawfare and military power, that strategy will not hold in a more multilateral world. Every country is just fucking tired of having USD reserves and you fucktards keep printing that shit to give to lazy plutocrats that don't have any idea of how to make a good productive society.

>>23786449
Thanks for your takes. I do have one grain of salt:

> lower salary doesn't mean decreased in labor production
I'm thinking about it in terms of worker compensation. Supply of labor is significantly increased in their Biden scenario, but labor demand is not increasing, in fact, capped artificially by a higher minimum wage.

Also since you're a fellow physicsanon I found this paper from ass-penins-titute which you might like, pic related, about wages vs productivity. I think more workers / educated does not lead to more production. Just look at india for example.

https://assets.aspeninstitute.org/content/uploads/2019/01/3.2-Pgs.-168-179-The-Link-Between-Wages-and-Productivity-is-Strong.pdf

>>23786541
Yea, and this just hit me.
>Biden is 77 years old
The oldest president to ever be in office IN HISTORY (Reagan left office at age 77).
In 2024 he would be 81 years old, AND BE RUNNING FOR 4 MORE YEARS!

What does this mean?
Kamala Harris presidency.
She co-opted the legislation for funding green-new-deal via MMT.
She said in the debates she has plans to pay for SS, free college, racial justice programs, etc. presumably with deficit spending.
In California she was talking about making guaranteed government-funded jobs for anyone who wants to work.

>>23785379
National chimpout started when Biden started winning, what bubble are you living in?

>>23786790
Ok, thanks for the info, I will take a look.

My argument that lower wage doesn't impact labor production is based in the Figure A (Disconnect between productivity and typical worker compensation,* 1948–2013). Btw, I never read that article with much attention.

https://www.epi.org/publication/raising-americas-pay/

Maybe less returns from things like oil, gas, and other climate change commodities.

Biden is “build back better” , meaning more circular sustainability stocks. Electric, sustainable companies,etc.

>>23786896
Honestly, I have no answer to what will increase the USA progress, but I have the impression that China progress is been much higher. Maybe we need communism to have higher progress rates, maybe nations have time to grow and to die. I just hope it isn't the beginning of the end for the western civilization.

>>23785235
>when Biden starts
ngmi "investor" anon

>>23787098
USOIL and XOM are hitting bottom. I feel those would be a good investment now even in that situation. I feel like punching myself for not buying Tesla stock when we had the crash.

>>23787185
Don't worry about me anon, I am a Taoist, I will make it regardless of my profits. I could be homeless and still have lots of fun just doing pure math with paper and pen (but I do need a lot coffee to work).

>>23787077
Checked and I've read that article before. The other 2019 article directly responds to this one. I don;t agree with their solutions to the low wage problems... those being policy changes to the labor demand (employer) side, rather than the supply side (too many workers, not enough meaningful shit to do).

Back to the OP, how do we profit?
I've been playing the "news cycle" waves every 2 weeks or so
>COVID CASES SPIKING!! MORE LOCKDOWNS COMING!!
then
>NEW VACCINE ANNOUNCED!! BETTER THAN EXPECTED UNEMPLOYMENT MEMES!

So right now I'm long S&P until 3800, building long vol and bond positions on the way up, then towards the end of month I unwind the long equities before we start to get into the negative news cycle again, then when it hits (more covid, trump declares war, etc.) sell the vol and bond positions as they spike.

>>23786790
Really cool, that article. Made wonder if there is any study that try to use SVD to see a wider range of the relations of wage and productivity in different groups. Maybe there are more things to consider.

Chainlink. The associated press literally used chainlink to call the election (even though it will be disputed and states are up for question). now is always a good time for more link

>>23787253
You sound insufferable

Buy Companies that produce ONIONS. Biden will enforce onions consumption on every american to make them trannies

>>23787532
Yeap... Unfortunately I am quite insufferable to people that are close to me like relatives, I talk too much and if get carried on about a topic I am really passionated about I will start to speak loudly without even realizing it. But people love my classes and usually becomes my friends and starts to eat with me in the canteen for a while, then stops doing it when I say something unappropriated. Well I have TDAH, I sort of unable to always speak politely about things I really like. And what about you? I bet you are also insufferable, only freaks meet at anonymous boards.

>>23787667
>only freaks meet at anonymous boards.
Based autist

>>23787509
Yea, super interesting and why most physics guys end up in finance or economics.
>more things to consider
Definitely are, just to send you down that rabbit hole, consider the production function: land, labor, capital, technology factors interacting

Some smart brains say its non linear, so more of 1 factor actually equals less production.

Japanese guy did some economic production modelling with matrices
http://reposit.sun.ac.jp/dspace/bitstream/10561/874/1/v45n1p29_tanaka.pdf

If you like this stuff I got lots more, I mean you can really go deep into autism with it like these guys:
http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/tesfatsi/MoneyBalancesInProdFunction.HStokes2013.pdf

>>23787765
Cool, if you have the time post it here, I will read everything when I have the time.

Sometimes when I talk to people from economics I feel they don't know math and are unable to actually back up most of their claims with data, I feel like they are just been indoctrinated like religious people. When I talk about BTC and crypto in general they feel like they make no sense at all, and that all crypto are scams. I honestly believe the only way the western countries has to keep freedom and keep ruling the world will be by using cryptocoins to spread the wealth, since we live in a plutocracy and historically those don't last for long. I feel like China technological progress and social progress is been much higher then ours, they are taking cut-thought decisions only based in data and with no regards for humans feelings or anythings, that is really efficient, much more efficient then printing money to give to plutocrats been safe and comfortable.

The best time I had talking about cryptocoins were with biologists, they really get it, they really get that our actual system is bound to fail because of been inefficient.

Well, I am going to sleep. Hope you can dump those articles here. I will see it in the morning.

Thanks for the discussion anons.

>>23785235
>>23785357
Maybe infrastructure related companies
Batteries
solar panels
green bull shit
abortion clinics
LGBTQ ELEMENOPEE related "stuff"
tortillas

VEGAS RAIDERS !!!! IN YA MOUTH