/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>23201317
Plz explain OP, don't be a faggot

>>23201317
Ok then explain. It takes an expert to explain something complex in easy to understand terms so give it a go. If you cant then that means you dont really understand it either

>>23201317
Which bond market and how is it going to negatively affect crypto? Is this the same idea as the Bank of Paris's whining about EUR sovereignty because they're afraid that Germany will use it as a way to boost itself away from the economically lagging nations while still controlling policy?

>>23201317
credit is contracting , banks are not putting out enough loans , meaning the whole point of quantative easing is a meme.
Dollar strenght will rise extremely high because the velocity of money is going to the shitter
bondprices are rising.
real yields will initially fuck over anyone holding gold and silver as well ( just like in 2008) , only this time the crisis will be worse.
FED is not managing to create inflation which is a disaster for corporate debts and government debts ( holy fuck we cant inflate our debts away).
It's basically the deflationary spiral of doom

>>23201317
>>23201629
High IQ and based.

>>23201583
in USA and europe the same dynamics which i just described will play out only in EU it will be way worse since they already have negative intrest rates. Congress would have to change the mandate of the FED to allow negative intrest rates to play out ( not going to happen because republicans would go apeshit and it hits common people in the dick so no politician would openly back this) .
also the USA having the dollar as the world reserve currency is a huge advantage but it doesn't mean they r not fucked as well. will just take longer to play out

>>23201629
just buy bitcoin and stfu nerd

last but not least moneyprinter will go brrr eventually causing hyperinflation ( that's why you want to own gold and silver but timing is important , buying now is pretty much buying the top before the big correction) . stonk market will reflate like a motherfucker but that doesn't mean owning stonks is awome when real inflation is worse than the % gains made in stonks ( just like Venezuela or zimbabwe stonk market luls)

>>23201714
>>23201629
So? how to not get rekt? tell us.

>>23201317
im rich and you're poor
i win

>>23201796
cash out your gains. wait for the bloodbath. Personally i'd be buying cryptos and precious metals mixture and some mining stonks. Probably even oil stocks ( oil will derive it's value from a weakening dollar after hyperinflation)

Bondmarket will moon
nuclear energy is also an intresting play

Gold didn’t dump in 2008 there was a pull back and then onto higher highs

>>23201839
This. The wait is worth it and its inevitable. It's all gambling until then.

>>23201946
true , my bad. just saying it will suck donkey dick to hold initially. and it will be way more brutal than 2008. Since this whole scenario imho won't take that much longer to play out ( my guess is anywhare between know and end of Q1 2021 ) , i rather not buy gold now. If you already own it, you could swing or just hold. whatever

>>23201629
>credit is contracting , banks are not putting out enough loans , meaning the whole point of quantative easing is a meme.
>Dollar strenght will rise extremely high because the velocity of money is going to the shitter

Explain this for a brainlet? How does a lack of loans pump the usd?

>>23202102
basically the massive amounts of money that have been printed is supposed to be inflationary right. Problem is this inflation only shows up in stonks because banks can lend supercheap now and just jam it into stonks. the dollars being printed don't end up in the real economy and this is deflationary, this is why the FED is not managing to create inflation . deflation = stronger dollar

>>23201629
>credit is contracting , banks are not putting out enough loans , meaning the whole point of quantative easing is a meme.
Mmt is flawed altogether. No one has enough confidence to produce in volume and there's too much debt already, while spending is remains high. We might replay 08 where everything gets temporarily shrekt, but it's going to get followed up by huge stagflation assuming it doesn't just skip into stagflation.

>>23202086
If you own it, keep holding it. The available supply is dwindling and continuing to dwindle. You'll want to have some now because missing the boat will kill you. Ensure you can average down and not face a liquidity crunch.

>>23202102
to simplify it , banks are not lending enough money to regular people which causes deflation

>>23202157
Dumb boomers. They should just do an airdrop on uniswap.

>>23202204
well they will probably do just that as a last resort , causing the hyperinflation

>>23202102
>How does a lack of loans pump the usd?
A windier answer, corps will not have enough access to cash to fund their operations and settle their accounts, which drives up demand for the dollar. Demand going up = more expensive

also i didn't know you could own gold in crypto (paxgold) until recently. pretty cool

bonds are even boomerier than stocks

>>23202258
Stop watching that btc maxi kieser

>>23202258
>own gold in crypto
Unironically, if you don't hold it, you don't own it. If the grid/grids/mines goes down, it isn't teotwawki, but your distributed ledgers will have serious vulnerability to attack. Assume even more ownership risk, gold is small and portable.

>>23202304
If the grid goes down then we have much bigger problems then crypto faggot. Who will watch after all the nuke power plants?

>>23202338
>grid goes back up 3 days later after major unrest in already deserted cities
>30,000, 000 double spends from Chinese miner pools
I should have said
>isn't necessarily

>>23202157
>>23202191
>>23202252
Dxy has been trending down for most of the year. If we get more stimulus it should go down further. You might be right though. However, I don’t think I would try to time it, if there’s one more big pull back before the bull market I will live

>>23202385
Intake back calling you a faggot since you want to have a discussion. But if the grid goes down then we have a serious problem besides crypto.

>>23202410
Smart play is to put everything in stable coins and ride it out. I don’t trust like bankers to not steal my money

>>23202438
Maybe if I saw dxy change trend dramatically. Otherwise there’s no guarantee this will play out

>>23202226
If they actually used crypto they could turn on a faucet and responsively increase or reduce the flow.

>>23201962
>>23201839
Saudi Arabia can single handedly keep crude prices down if it helps them gain market exposure, it's why Wal-Mart started a selling war on physical discs games.

>>23202533
Checked. So we Japan now? That’s what Happens if the ride never ends. People working every waking min and living in rooms the size of jail cells

>>23202291
max kaiser is a retard just like Peter Schiff. They both nonstop shill hyperinflation and conveniently skip the deflationary spiral that will preceed it

>>23202415
Depends on your country/area desu. My area has been dropping power semi frequently during big storms lately and people do ok.
>CA outages - esp wildfire peg
>IO outage for 4 days plus
>NJ outages for 4 days plus
>CT outages for 4 days plus
Granted, these were localized, but at least in the USA, it's relatively normal. A widespread outage will kill the elderly, but I really think it mostly affects the pharma corps. Miner/pool centralization is rather bad, especially when a majority of coins are nicehashable. If we lose a significant portion of any grid for more than a few hours, yes we have big problems, but the likelihood of an attack increases dramatically. It's not to say don't own any crypto, but for the love of God, everyone should own some lead, silver, and gold.

>>23202415
Im following your strategy. I can't time for ass. I'm building up my cash again incase there is one more big drop, but I'm not counting on it and my portfolio is where my mouth is.

>>23202615
>So we Japan now?
Lol we have no savings

>>23202410
>Dxy has been trending down for most of the year. If
dollar should have been up way more, the deferrement of debts kind of explains it. also dollar demand will go through the roof once EU gets in real trouble ( banking sector in EU is fubar)

>>23202615
If real estate prices fall to the level of Tokyo I would be completely fine with it.

>So we Japan now?
not yet but that's what lies ahead of us i think but that's a very longterm scenario ( 5 yrs+)

>>23201629
>deflationary spiral of doom
then explain why a cardboard house now costs 2 million USD instead of 50k
>what is asset inflation?

>>23202700
i already explained that the only inflation we are seeing is mainly in stonks , i didn't mention the housing market. You'll probably also see inflation in foodprices etc. That doesn't mean the overall trend isn't deflationary. inflation and deflation can manifest themselves in different asset classes obv

>>23202700
all fiat money devalues over time. It's the relative value against each other that matters in financial markets.

>>23201629
ah so you're not holding XRP and aren't aware of the great reset. Thanks for sharing.

Mods you can lock this thread

>>23202651
Stable coin strat? It’s the only play I can see that’s good. Put saving in stable coin loan out to exchanges for %. I can’t time shit either I’m not a trader. Just trying to preserve my wealth

>>23202666
Checked. Fall I think they would rise. Last time I checked everything is super expensive in the city. Everyone who is not a farmer is forced to move there for work while living in a cube

I agree with the op in principal. But during this death spiral the communists in government won’t just stand by. They’ll change the rules of the game. So ya maybe it’ll come, but then everyone will a fedcoin, student loan forgiveness, 15k to take out a home loan ect. I just can’t see deflation happening for very long. It’s too easy for idiots to make big moves in government.

>>23202926
Agree with basically all you've said. They could try to avoid this deflationary spiral by directly giving people money to spend. This is the only way to avoid the deflation and skip straight to the inflation. Certainly if/when deflation occurs they will need to print infinite cash to service their debts.

>>23202926
Hey op thanks
What is the play for 2020q4, and 2021 2022?
I’m thinking that it’s best to purchase rental real estates strictly for the cash flow from renters. I’ve been looking into cooper as well as investing into other energy stocks

>>23203412
the government had some absolutely insane policies after the 1929 crash which made things only worse and that's why it took like 20 years and a world war to recover. Deflation doesn't have to last long to have absolutely horrendous consequences

>>23202086
For crypto it seems from now till Q1 of 2020 could see a massive drop in prices follow by a bull run?

>>23202157
Problem is food prices are insane right now and housing is actually going up, where is this deflation?

>>23203140
Stable coins have a freeze function. I’m not touching that shit

>>23203475
this year i bought 1 stonk. Pretty big position. 100% gains in 3 months. I got out beginning of august. Not because of the company ( junior gold mining stock) but because the writing is ont he wall. It's impossible to say but stimulus is not going to happen at least untill february imho , but who knows, if that's the case i'm expecting an initial big correction or even a crash anywhere between now and end of Q1. correction meaning anything up to 25%. crash meaning anything worse than that. We could see a crash some recovery and then just a steadily downward path for a couple of years. that's really hard to predict because the FED is a massive manipulation machine

>>23203532
the housing market isn't ' the market'. It's tiny in comparison to bonds and stocks. In general what we have seen is the government trying to delay the debt payments. People failing on debt repayments is a massively deflationary event. Even with all the bailouts all the bankrupcies are piling up fast and hard , just like in 2008, these thigs need time to play out and don't you worry housing market will go to the shitter as well.

big banks won"t fail this time though. all the small and medium banks will get rekt beyond believe. The big banks learned their lesson and are well capitalised and took care not to give out loans too liberally. Small and medium banks don't have a choice or other ways to make money so they are handing out shittons of crappy loans ( carloans for example)

>>23203510
to be more precise. yes i believe a big crypto bullrun awaits but the overall markets crashing is going to be a bloodbath for crypto as well. Do i believe crypto will make new all time highs? definately but it's going to be a hell of a ride and definately not smooth. I wouldn't be shocked if crypto just crabbed for a year or 2 after the big one

When do I sell my stocks?

>>23203786
now :) being outside the market for a couple of months is not a big deal anyway

Suppose there’s no real point in trying to time the market and just buy/sell when it’s advantageous to do so. Annoying for crypto because it seems a bull run could be between 2022-2023

>>23201317

Fight me in Clapham 1v1 fgt

>>23203822
If you are willing to hold you'll be fine but it'll be scary. I don't know enough about hashrates and mining and all that shit too predict what a realistic bottom would be so i'm already out basically. I'll probably get back in once i see a massive selloff ( i'm talking BTC price of at least 5K or something like that) . I'm convinced crypto will do extremely well just liek silver and gold but not before it takes alot pain first because of this upcoming deflationary spiral

>>23203634
House aggregate value is around 32 trillion, us bond market is around 102 trillion. I understand that 3 X is large but this isn't the same thing as the massive valuation difference that you are assuming.
Money printer goes blrrrr, corporate REITs will buy up houses even if there's another sell off I've also heard about the silver tsunami assuming that a post boomer market will lead to huge selling pressure.

>>23202102
someone has to buy money for the money to be created. Just because Jerome Powell says "we;re gonna raise inflation" doesn't mean he actually can. In fact, in the same setting where he says that they will, you'll never hear them explain exactly how that money gets to anyone in particular. Someone has to buy the money from the bank.

Now, how much can the bank sell? Infinite. They can open as many lines of credit as there are people to take out loans. So the only true characteristic of money that grants it value is its velocity. which could be described as '$X changes hands Y times in Z time'.

Now, whether or not lowered velocity causes deflation is an entirely different argument. I've never seen any sufficient evidence to suggest a true connection and not just correlation. Maybe someone can enlighten me with stats.

>>23204164
Is there a chart which shows velocity? Or do banks just release like earning reports? How does op know there is fewer loans right now?

>>23204045
you might very well be right. i'm not really intrested in the housing market but what you are saying sounds very plausible

>>23204309
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/
you can find all these graphs here

>>23204164
I leech on the work of others i'm not shy to admit so I don't have the expertise to answer that question but velocity of money is a big deal and it makes sense , if money stays in one place outside the marketplace it can't create inflation imo

>>23203890
I could be wrong and I am speculating when I say this, you might have sold a tad bit early (but still if your in the green your green):
What major financial/industry player has went bust this year? In 2008 it was bear sterns that marked the beginning of a recession, which wasn’t announced formally until the following year sending the markets in chaos.

Now there’s been retailers that’s filed for bankruptcy...so that’s a consideration. Most are stores, gyms, fast food and travel.

With this being the election year, all the financial engineering & propaganda in the system is keeping the markets afloat for the time being.

>>23203786
Soon

>>23204412
To follow up I think your right, now’s a good a time to sell stocks/crypto/gold and go into cash...or maybe lower your % invested in the markets.

This financial climate looks to be the reverse of 2008 where housing caused the recession. Not sure if your aware of the states who’s pensions are under funded but that could cause the next one. It just sucks because I really want to get into housing but I don’t want to be fucked whenever the crash/correction comes.

>>23204412
you are right and for all i know it might take another year. or maybe next week. But it's not going to take multiple years for this to play out imo. Especially with the fragile political state of the USA. and then there's the coof virus. whether you are a believer or not is not important what is important is whether the powers that be lock up the economy again which would be a crushing event

>>23204469
i'm more of a macro economics guy but all i know is that the finances of several important states are in a crucial danger zone. pensions in the USA are particulary vunerable since american pension funds are so heavily involved with stocks

>>23204469
give yourself some wiggle room if you are looking to buy real estate. the way i would look at it : * i am a retard and completely wrong and postponed buying a house for 12 months. houses went up another 5% let's say.
* I am right and the housing market crashes, my patience paid of and i now get to purchase this house for a 40% discount. looks like pretty good risk/reward to me no?

>all the retards getting explanations from even more retarded keynesians

>>23203550
I was not aware of this thanks.

Might have to park my shit in btc then

>>23203570
>correction meaning anything up to 25%
its seems risky trying to swing for "only" a 25% correction

>>23204309

>>23204814
didn(t get out because i wanted to swing :) market won't go down in a straight line. it will recover and then dump some more tc.. The initial correction or crash will be pretty brutal though in terms of volatility like in March

>>23201629
Yep

>>23204837
lol this graph is so savage

>>23204814
"Testing March Lows"
Is the strongest crash we'll have, after that institutional investors ( even global buyers) start converting fiat into equities.

>>23201629
False, the fed printed 20% of total USD in circulation in the last year

>>23202797
>youll see inflation in food and houses@!! JusT NT stock!
dude you're fucking retarded. if theres inflation in housing and food then that's literally everyything inflating. how is it deflation?? what the fuck is this dunning kreuger PoS?
>opinion discarded

>>23202102
Credit accounts for 10x as cash for wealth in the economy. Loans not being given means people can not buy as much as they are used too. On top of that they must now pay back the large amount of debt they have accrued. Bond yields are positively affected by this. The debt is just too high to pay back now.

>>23204837
>66666 times the debt since 1960
>Money velocity only decreased by half

>>23204932
It's important to what these Anons think has value though IMO. But stocks aren't going to crash because even if you dilute the shares, there's still on X amount of stocks and most represent businesses that generate profit.

OP is so fucking retarded. He is saying we'll go into deflation here:>>23201629
but says he owns mining stocks and pm's. Why the fuck would you own mining stocks and pms in deflation, you'd wanna own cash then fucknuts. If your whole plan is to swing for a 25% correction then you're fucking stupid.

You're even saying this will be done by end of q1 2021. Pms and mining stocks will bounce back quick (IF) theres a crash.

>>23204837
this seems really bad

>>23204932
people won't be able to repay their mortgages
mortgages have been deferred not cancelled 'retard'
defaulting on debt = deflation ' retard'

>>23204983
i never said we are in deflation retard i said we will soon. that's why i am out. I'm making the case for a deflationary cycle , that's it

>this is good for DXY

>>23204983
in case you haven't noticed gold and stocks went up alongside because of stimulus which also ended up in gold

>>23204983
He is a retard and keep making the same thread over and over. I think he’s looking for people to think he’s super smart or something

>>23202086
Shill me gold options OP

>>23205012
And you'd be correct. These Anons have never managed anything other than a crypto wallet or RH account.

OP is retarded, inflation increase more than accounts for the velocity drop... We both know M2 is twice as high as what ((they)) tell us anyways

>>23204998
Yes and what happens when they extend the no rent/ no mortage payments until the helicopter money comes buddy? People haven't had to pay rent for like 6months now. You think they're suddenly gonna throw everyone out on the streets??

The real reason we haven't seen inflation is because not enough time has passed. Money takes 12-18 months to reach the market. It already happened m8.

also what happens when velocity picks up again? Velocity is low because of corona, so eventually this cure is gonna come out and velocity will increase. What happens then? inflation. The money was already printed.

>>23205035
look into canadian or american gold mining stocks. PureGold Mining is an awsome stock. wait for the correction and buy.

>>23205029
Yes, because if things get cheaper, you can buy more.

>>23205031
yes thats inflation fucknuts lmao! gold's price literally inflated because of stimmies fuckhead. its the same BUT FOR EVERYTHING(including business inputs ;))

>>23204932
Holy shit. I like this guy. I feel like I could have exactly typed this exact message.

>>23202647
Devastating point desu

>>23205059
You're the <90IQ on that inverted IQ chart buddy. Pms are the right investment right now, but because its an inflationary environment.

>Jerome Powell announces inflation rate of over 6% next year
>OMG we're gonna deflate! You guys know nothing!!! oMG!

>>23205048
The Fed doesn't have a mandate to support helicopter money.
This would also be their last resort option if they could do it not saying it's not a possibility but that's a political minefield

>>23202647
So you're gonna try and time the market? Wow! have fun missing the boat by trying to catch the bottom.>>23205080

>>23205062
Yes because more M2 in circulation means things get cheaper. The fed added like 10 trillion dollars to its balance sheet but things will definitely get cheaper! 100% logical

Buy $PAD kneepad.finance

fuck you op

people who somehow get edgy because of a theory is pretty funny to be fair. anyways enjoy your sick gains. i'm out. time to jack off

>>23205107
I dont think you understand that the market is incredibly overleveraged right now. People will need to pay down debt. Which the FED is trying and failing to do.

>>23205162
Kys you stupid faggot. Stop taking smarter people ideas and parroting then link you have a brain

>>23205162
>theory
>Hey guys I just found out that ice is not water!
no dude you're just fucking stupid

>>23205179
The market is always overleveraged retard, that's how wall street cocaine addicts keep themselves from getting bored. People are going to default on their mortgages sure, but that won't stop the fed from adding more trillions to their balance sheets until it's all over. M3 is gonna double at least before this is all over because the fed will bail out any company or bank that goes under.

We have never seen a significant downward move under ZIRP and QE, and for almost two years now the FED has made it clear that they will do whatever it takes to keep markets afloat. The FED is frontrunning deflation in the markets by handing capital to Blackrock et. al, who then buy corporate bonds. As for the deflation in the real economy, that's why the FED and indeed all central banks are looking to implement a CBDC next year. By issuing every American CBDC payments, they circumvent congress entirely and can finally affect their measure of inflation. This will likely wind up becoming a UBI program and lead to stagflation. It won't end in hyperinflation until the US dollar loses world reserve currency status.

>>23201317
so when link moon tho

>>23205339
I am watching this closely and so far it has been only Dems pushing for it. I would not be surprised if it becomes a bipartisan issue and the GOP will fight it because "muh freedums" and shiet. But if the election is a blue sweep, all of this + MMT become highly likely.

Sooo....
TL;DR: Probably another correction or crash could happen. Your choice to hold now or sell and rebuy later?

>>23205449
They will say they hate it and then just write dumb amendments like you can't buy weed or McDonald's with your Fedcoin or try to tack on an extra incentive to buy American

>>23201629
based. bring on the apocalypse

>>23202086
I've been waiting for this whole thing to play out. Haven't put money into any markets for about a month cause I'm expecting major turmoil soon. All said, I will also continue to hold my shitcoins/gold/silver/miners on the offchance that the shock doesn't beat down those markets as hard as you'd expect. I'm in long term cap gains on most of my shit too so not going to throw that away over this uncertainty

Negative interest rates are unnecessary. It's equivalent to increasing public deficit. So just keep interest at zero and increase the deficit, it's simple enough.

I fucking hate you retard deflationary cocksuckers

>>23206327
based austrian

>>23201868
> bond market
Normally I invest 5 × the 10 year treasury rate in a corporate bond ETF. Should I step it up or just buy as interest rates go up?
> nuclear energy
I've been curious about the possibilities of nuclear power. How realistically would it be a good investment over the next ten years though?

>>23205012
>soon
Every doomboy says this

>>23204773
The market will be explained like it, but I think you're right that the only important piece is the actual wealth and productive capacity of the economy which is crippled to hell by inflation, tax, debt, and artificially cheap debt.

>>23207428
chinks and middle east are going live with their nuclear reactors and have a shitton more planned the coming years. nevermind europe or USA. we are talking massive numbers. chinks don't give a flying fuck they just want to be able to get cheap energy while at the same time being able to play the green energy meme

I don't leverage trade but yeah sure why not though i would prefer regular treasury bonds. Go for it if your risk profile is high. good risk/reward

>>23205048
So what youre saying is the money printing is priced in, but the money itself hasnt come yet.
Thats not a good thing.

>>23201317
I do understand. This is why tomorrow, when PlotX launches, this space will change for the better.

>>23205558
People have been calling for a second crash since march, but number go up

>>23207602
>the money itself hasnt come yet
it will never come into actual circulation because of flawed mechanics of quantative easing but all you biz fuckbois think Peter Schiff is some deep thinker. FED goes to commercial bank : ' give me trasury bond' , comemrcial bank gets the money in their account at the FED. But there's a catch , they can't use it because it is accounted as their banking reserve so they can only use it as a collateral against their lending operations. Problem : banks not lending enough to normies because normies are now poorfags and they don't want to risk their collateral , especially the big banks are really strict now when it comes to loans

>>23202258
It is trusted solution, you trust your money in PAX the company.

tldr QE is making the market more illiquid instead of more liquid. ooh the irony

>>23201629
>Dollar strenght will rise extremely high

>>23207675
dollar strength not dollar value obv you actual retard

>>23201317
If you're really interested in learning more about these ideas look up Dr. Lacy Hunt, and Jeff Snider.
Here's a starting point to dive down the rabbithole
https://player.vimeo.com/video/465767353?start&end&wmode=opaque&loop=0&controls=1&mute=0&rel=0&modestbranding=0#t=

should i buy bond?

>>23207648
Why wouldn’t they be able to use their reserve fucktard? They changed the reserve requirements to 0% in April.

>>23207710
thnx dude i already know about them. I started off with the dollar milkshake theory by Brent Johnson , then ended up with Steven Van Metre who mentioned Hunt and Snider. Very intresting stuff. thnx for link though

>>23207731
i'm not even going to dignify an answer just because of your sheer stupidity. stay poor

you guys are early, we will see a parabolic rally from now through early 2021, likely setting new ATHs.
Then at peak euphoria, the jews cash out and the entire system collapses.
I don't blaim anyone who doesn't want to play chicken and time the market, but there are still good upside gains to be had in the coming months.

>>23207745
Says the guy hedging his deflationary theory with precious metals. What a dingus

>>23207764
retard learn to read. i no longer own any

>>23207734
I started with Brent Johson as well but he never went into depth unless he's talking with Snider so I know Johnson knows these things but for some reason he only speaks in oversimplified analogies like he's scared of going in depth.

>>23207780
LOL see you tomorrow when silver and gold open green.
>buy high
>sell low

>>23207809
agreed but he has an interview with Steven Van Metre on realvision finance ( youtube) on which they touch QE.

>>23201317
>bond market
holy fuck poorfag just kys lmao

>>23207811
sold in august Dufus

>>23207763

It's every 7 years

>>23201629
>Dollar strenght will rise extremely high
>bondprices are rising.
LOL
WHO THE FUCK IS BUYING THIS SHIT????????
ARE YOU REALLY BUYING A 'SOON-TO-NEGATIVE' FUCKING YIELD????????

NOBODY
I REPEAT
NOBODY IS BUYING THIS PIECE OF SHIT

>46posts by this ID
holy FUCK the desperation is real
are you trying to unload your bags into some poor retard?
you should just kys ASAP

>>23207876
To add:

Bond prices only rising because the yield is being kept artificially low by the fed. The fed will quickly turn from the buyer of last resort to the only buyer as real yields continue negative

>>23207648
>you biz fuckbois think Peter Schiff is some deep thinker
He's not thinking deep, and that's probably why he's right. you deflation advocates are (although "right" in the short term) playing with derivatives when you can alternatively observe that basic definitions are able to be used. An economy is net welfare and it is the sum of goods and services in a given place. There's few people producing with too much debt, and too much additional debt/credit. If we have infinite wants and infinite money, the resources/goods/services are going to get bought up. You can see it in the financial markets, the commodities markets, and the consumer markets. It's also only getting worse due to future unfunded liabilities, and unsustainable debt because we stopped caring about being able to pay a loan in full and stayed caring that "we can keep making payments that exceed the interest." sure it might be "deflationary" due to changes in spending habits, or some other bs with how pensioners interact with the financial sector, but the net result is likely, more dollars in existence, more dollars being invested or spent, and fewer and fewer goods and services being offered. It's inflationary.

>>23207834
also you can check out Jason Burack's criticism of Jeff Snider https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Ec4mAuj6LU he talks about how the dollar swap lines are now larger than the eurodollar market.

Brent Johnson and Marin Katusa have some videos where they talk together about the dollar swap lines and its geopolitical affects.

>>23207809
It's because he's a brainlet

>>23207836
>>23207876
>>23207893

>>23207928
Don’t bother typing anymore. He was advocating investing in gold for deflation. HAHAHAHAHAHA

>>23207955
What's the next most likely step when you zoom out fuckface.

>>23201629
The dollar is only weak vs the Euro right now, it is doing absolutely fine vs the other currencies. The ECB will start to print billions to weaken the Euro. It is only a matter of time.

>>23207946
I used to think Brent Johnson might be a brainlet too until he did a few videos together with Jeff Snider and Brent was able to go in depth there.

>>23207965
Who knows. Why should I try and time the market and not just keep accumulating. You got a crystal ball? No? Stay poor.

>>23207969
I'll give him another try next time I see his name pop up. At least Schiff can entertain through sheer autism. Johnson rubbed me as a midwit high on his own "clout" from coining the milkshake retardation - just a fancy way of describing trade accounts and muh "least dirty shirt in the basket."

>>23207979
>He doesn't do both
Are you backpedaling here or just being Jewish about winning some "argument" due to a perceived contradiction? Assuming you're timing, enjoy your Russian Roulette. I'm an acoomulator primarily. And no, I don't have a crystal ball, I just have some history and projections for bills coming due for the USA.

>>23203680
The banks are all connected, doesn´t matter if your bank is doing fine, if only a few banks fail banks will lose trust in each other and credit will go down. It is only a matter of time till the big banks are at risk too.

>>23205339
this, finally someone with a brain ITT

>>23204671
this has been the most practical non schizo /biz/ thread in months. thank you

>>23204898
you absolute fucking brainlet, you ameoba brained dullard, you fucking dumb shit. Does your head get itchy wearing a fucking helmet all day?

>>23208040
That's the same way I felt about Brent Johnson, until he started doing interviews together with Jeff Snider and George Gammon then he actually started going more in depth that just that retarded milkshake analogy I hate.

>>23207861
based and shemitahpilled

>>23208083
I'm glad that our bullshit detectors are similarly calibrated. Might be good, but still can be wrong. I'm not sure how I feel about Gammon yet. He comes off a little bit slimy because I don't think he tells his audience everything and kind of communicates with omission, but I don't think he's out to steer anyone wrong. Seems like a good guy, and I think he's worth listening to, especially with other people because he's really good at mentioning the underlying theory and cutting through it quickly enough. A lot of times it seems that these commentators either get really bogged in the technical parts or overlook it altogether. Let me know if I'm a bit off.

>>23208045
you are probably right , which would make the deflationary spiral only even worse

>>23208180
I kinda feel like Gammon is kind of like Joe Rogan in the sense that he can get away with one episode with Bernie Sanders and another episode with Alex Jones. You send out invites to people to be on your podcast and they look into you they're not going to accept the invite to be a guest on your podcast if they dont like you. Gammon has had on several guests who go into depth in deflationsist arguments, and he's had on the most famous in the inflationist camp, Peter Schiff. I dont view it as slimy that he picks only one team and alienates the other team it's just him trying to be open to explore information from all camps.

>>23207861
even if I believe that theory, I'm talking about the real covid correction, not a standard market cycle.

op is based and redpilled
thanks for your thoughts

>>23207928
I like Peter Schiff's YT channel alot. He brings on a good show but he sounds like a broken record..
The thing is he is not wrong imo but he doesn't understand the road to hyperinflation so his advice for noermies is dogshit. What do you think regular Joe Schmoe will do when gold dumps 30% out of nowhere. They will panic sell. Schiff acts like gold is untouchable and will only ever go up without a hiccup

>>23208654
also Schiff's investment fund is embarassing. Imagine him since 2008 riding this slowass gold train. You would have been off alot better just buying S&P 500. Every year he made hysterical predicitions. Always in ' shock' when they announced QE like it was something that was impossible to foresee

>>23208180
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QPFl7X9R2VY

when you lock economies down, you get seeking liquidity at all cost "get me dollars no matter how you do it"

gold worth more than usd, but if you need usd and not gold you sell your gold to get usd

will be weaponized, they have extended swap lines to certain countries

the reason swap lines are important is the usd debt in the world. the usd debt that the rest of the world owe and the ongoing funding needs. a lot of these companies fund their ongoing daily businesses by usd located outside the us. companies need usd. the reason they borrowed in usd is they get a lower rate in usd. as this usd shortage has intensified and flow of capital decreased velocity money has fallen, those usd are harder to get and it makes it harder for those non us companies to get usd to service that debt. the ecb cant offer usd liquidity to their market

shortly after brazil got a swap line they came out in support of a new president in venezuela. thats not a coincidence.

these countries need usd to operate, if they cannot get usd because the global economy is slowing, the governments are going to look internally to get dollars and what better place to get dollars than the industries that sell products in usd.

gold mine in turkey but turkey is a country without a swap line and turkey is extremely behind on their enormous usd funding needs.
probably going to get a swap line, but theres going to be strings attached. if swap lines get pulled theyre going to have to look other places to get dollars and one will be the gold mine

countries without swap lines are going to do whatever they can to steal. if you're in a country who loses its swap lines you better look for a exit because those governments are going to come for you.

after deflation, the next 10 years will be inflationary storm

nations without swap lines, they use the cashflow the companies would reinvest into opex, production declines.

>>23202304
This, optimal is physical 60% and 40% in miners (a mix of junior and senior), etfs etc. You swing the digital, and hold the physical.

>>23201629
Can you explain to me how we are supposed to see assets crash and experience deflation if they keep printing paper money?

>>23208846
agree on this, but the breakdown won't happen in everything at once, capital will rotate. PM's - will be bullish, commodities - also bullish, equities have slight chance of crabbing for years, with an occasional bubble in any given sector.

>>23208710
Schiff is shilling Gold and that is why he is pushing for the inflation narrative. Honestly it all depends on the product these guys are shilling. If someone is a bond guy they push the deflation narrative... etc.

I wish people would act as if they could predict economic movements with any certainty.
If you could, you'd be rich.
The big international players decide what's happening and all you faggots basically just have a 50% chance to be correct.
If you belong to the 50% that was right you'll feel smart but really you just guessed a coinflip correctly.

>>23209556
he said it already: money is printed by fed by putting money in big bank reserves, if a big bank doesnt loan that money out (because of uncertain economic conditions) it never goes into the real economy. Fed > money to bank > money to business > business buys equipment, goods etc = inflation. If money stays in the vault there's no inflation.

>>23209617
yeah, but its better than just sitting and staring at the sun all day

>>23209556
the more shittier the economy becomes, the less likely the money via loans will go into the economy

Finally a good thread on biz. Sick and tired of the Pajeet shitcoin threads.

>not buying chad bonds

>>23202191
regular lending doesn't need to take place to prevent deflation, how can a deflationary shock occur any time soon when $2 TRILLION hits + whatever the FED continues buying

he thinks the purchasing power of fiat currencies is going to INCREASE

>>23201629
Inflation has only not appeared yet because velocity of money has dropped. The fed mistakenly thinks this means they need to print even MORE.

I used to subscribe to your view anon but if we have any period of deflation it will be extremely brief as the fed will go full brrrr to stop any deflation the moment it appears. Covid has given them even more political leeway to print. I wouldn't be surprised to see 100 trillion added to the currency supply in the next 18 months. Deflation on any large scale as you are claiming will not happen as this would bankrupt governments worldwide. As much as I would like to see this, the only outcome that is possible is hyperinflation.

>>23210369
isn't hyperinflation always preceded by deflation?

>>23210775
The deflationary shock was 2008

I've been reading financial doom and gloom since 2016. Just stfu and begone!

>>23211332
I’ve been reading it since after bush

>keep buying 80% btc/eth and 20% shitcoins with every paycheck and keep 2 years worth of living expenses in cash at all times
in 2-3 years from now, how well off or fucked am I? place your bets

>>23208710
Thank you for providing the only good thread on /biz/ since a long time
Any recent videos for me to listen to?

>>23210369
As of right now the Fed is not able to cause inflation (maybe laws will change in the future though)
The treasury however can, so this is where you should be looking

>>23201629

Ya for a bit then we hyperinflate bb! Chill

Why am I learning more about monetary policy on biz than in my college level classes?

>>23212930
I met a finance student at my top 50 uni who didn't know what the fed was.

It's easy to overestimate how widely known /biz/ memes are when you've been here a while

>>23205102
Exactly OP is retarded. Some us are down 100,000s USD from LINKs ATH . Yes dollar milkshake vortex ok great but I still prefer a fat LINK stack purchased under $1 per link than stronk dollar desu swing linkers get the ROPE

https://youtu.be/B4xcCO9v-Os?t=3771
Jeff Snider talking about the banking system is malfunctioning so where do we go from here, hopefully we transition to based on digital currency blockchain, dont necessarily believe that might be bitcoin, but theres value in the blockchain technology. theres definitely a way to do a currency system that is not bank centered. if you use blockchain as a payments system we dont even need banks anymore, we can have a bankless monetary system.

>>23201714
What are interest rates? it means the banks gives you or steals you money if they are negative?

>>23212227
>>keep buying 80% btc/eth and 20% shitcoins with every paycheck
Moron
>and keep 2 years worth of living expenses in cash at all times
Based
>in 2-3 years from now, how well off or fucked am I? place your bets

>>23212996
>>23212930
Because unless you suck a lot of cock and have rich friends you'll spend 5 years after college jumping from temp job to temp job until you can bullshit your way into something longer term.

>>23214038
Based hater of shitcoins (all crypto are shitcoins).

Also on that note, is the optimal strategy to save like 10 years of living expenses and wait for Internet Meme Money to hit rock bottom again like march, so you can hoover it up on the cheap?

>>23214112
you had 10 years

https://www.realvision.com/the-inflation-fairy-tale
https://player.vimeo.com/video/465767353?start&end&wmode=opaque&loop=0&controls=1&mute=0&rel=0&modestbranding=0#t=
1h:12m Jeff Snider, lets get rid of the central bankers, and then we can create a credible way to get out of this mess. i would prefer to even go step further where we reform the system that it doesnt need to be bank centered. the real promise of digital technology isnt that the fed can put money in your account (fedcoin), its that we can recreate a bank without a bank, blockchoin technology doesnt, we can look ahead blockhain can circumvent the banking system entirely, so i would prefer we go a step further where we think about redesigning the entire monetary system globally from the ground up. that would to me be the best possible means to escape the interest rate 0% lower bound.

>>23214147
And I'll have ten more years when the next recession wipes out your memecoins and you sell them to me on the cheap.

>>23214201
>best performing asset in human history
cope more. You already missed the biggest gravy train you'll see if your life.

>>23209723
Please do explain how one becomes wealthy in bonds.

>>23201317
The bond market is CLOSED fool. It's Columbus Day!

>>23201629
Deflation is not an inherent evil.

>>23201629
> deflationary spiral of doom
What are some other times that an economy fell into a deflationary spiral and destroyed it?

>>23214812
Why is deflation feared but not inflation?

>>23216221
https://youtu.be/kJEvuaHyPlQ?t=1985
Dr Lacy Hunt, this is what happened in japan in the last 30 years, its very very difficult for borrowers to maintain profitability and sustain margins when you have even a mild degree of deflation