/biz/ - Business & Finance

I put 2000GBP on about a month ago - returns 4600. If I were to put 2000 on today, I'd only get 3888. I'm still confident enough to consider it but it isn't that tempting.

>>22324100
That's not even 3:1 risk/reward, meh. I'd rather just buy more ETH

Who with lads?

I'm planning on putting a bit on Trump to flip NH, and Minnesota. Since they're both underdog odds you only need to win one to cut a profit, and there's a good chance both flip. They were already razor thin in 2016 and demographic trends have indicated that they are primed to finally flip this year. Minnesota had the riots, some polls have indicated brooding Trump support, and NH had ridiculous primary turnout for Trump. As these states are historically Democratic they present a good value opportunity imo.

>>22324021
Bet trump, easiest money of your life

>>22324100
I saw £4400 (if returns includes the initial wager).

I see him winning more likely than not, and if he does it will do more than double my money. Firsts time I've ever gambled but it seems like a nobrainerr

Those two are to close for me to bet any money on them. Both seem like a shit choice, but so did hillary/trump...
Is there any way I can bet on the US to end up as a failed state by 2030?

>>22324021
I wouldn't. There's probably going to be a contest of the results and betters are going to be fucked.

>>22324212
>I saw £4400
Ladbrokes and William Hill currently return £3886. I doubt you'll find £4400 again.

>>22324223
>Is there any way I can bet on the US to end up as a failed state by 2030?
There actually is. You have to tag the bookie on Twitter and state what you want to bet.

>>22324339
https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2020/winner?selectionName=donald-trump

6/5 is £4400 no?

>>22324021
Bet on Trump and hedge your bet by buying TrumpBux on the presale t.me/TrumpBux

>>22324251
this is why I'm not making any bets. It's going to be a fucking mess.

>>22324223
>Is there any way I can bet on the US to end up as a failed state by 2030?
>2030

someones an optimist I see.

>>22324414
>t.me/TrumpBux
This some limp lefty bullshit but the idea is good, it's pretty novel. Probably make some money. I just don't know how I feel investing in something so gay.

>>22324373
>6/5 is £4400 no?
OK. Paddy Power, fair enough. I might put another 2 grand on with that. Thanks.

Let's look at this purely statistically and ignore any right wing bubble talking points like
"America knows Biden is senile"
or
"Americans feel unsafe"
Check out the poll nationwide
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast
American's hate Trump. There is no silent majority and the only way he wins is if he's able to manipulate the election, which may be possible

>>22325587
>Check out the poll nationwide
Polls are reliable then?

>>22325070
>invedting
>emotions

ngmi

>>22325799
There's plenty of other opportunities out there.
Probably worth one Eth and then sell November.

>>22324021
Can I get a 10x or a 50x reward for betting on Trump or something very specific about the election?

Back in 2015 it looked like Hillary was going to win because the rabid fanbase was yelling loud enough to eclipse the silent majority.

>>22325799
>Thinks buying a fucking memecoin is "investing"
Do you not remember Trumpcoin in 2017/18? You're gonna lose your $.

>>22325702
538 is probably the least reliable polling aggregate because Nate shillver assumes that every poll that is biased towards democrats is the standard and every one that isn't is undercounting democrats by at least 5%.

anybody uses FTX? They have a token that is supposed to expire at $1 if Trump wins but I dont know how legit it is as it is FTX always does flash wicks to rob from you

>>22325880
On predictit you can bet on things like the total Republican electoral vote lead over the Democrats, or the popular vote lead.

Of course the smart money is popular vote lead->cash out on election day when Trump is winning->turn 200 dollars into 8,000 dollars because simps will always dogpile what looks to be the winning category while the election is still ongoing.

There's a strong likelihood Trump will be heavily winning the popular vote on the day of the election and since predictit takes like 60 days to payout it's not worth waiting.

>>22324021
In 2016 I was very confident Trump was going to win but not so much anymore. I still think the odds are in his favor.

Be careful where you choose to bet. A lot of places will just steal your money.

What's a good trusted betting website? I plan on putting a G on this election

Beauty is a curse some men are intimate by beautiful woman and won't date one think thair friends Wii always be trying to get in her pants statistics show beauty is not an indication of happiness or the amount of times a person has sex.

>>22324251

I could definitely see this being a messy year. If no one wins it by a mile there's going to be a lot of fighting and recounting.

>>22324021

Not an american. Does the republican party automatically win if trump wins? If yes then my broker is retardet

>>22326236

Bovada is like the wal-mart of online offshore betting, pretty decent go to

>>22324021
Betting Trump because I don't see Biden realistically winning. If they hold debates he will get destroyed. Also Americans are sick of the riots which means they either won't vote or will vote Trump.
That being said the election is almost 100% going to be contested by both sides no matter what.

>>22326291
what does that say in english? republicans dont immediately win the house/senate if trump wins
also why can you bet Kamala but not Pence lol

>>22325922
>Do you not remember Trumpcoin
You mean the PnD coin that went from $0.06 to to $1.60? Smart people made a shit ton of money.

>>22326150
>a strong likelihood Trump will be heavily winning the popular vote
The last Republican to win the popular vote was Reagan. Good luck w that.

>>22326426
It was actually Bush in 2004, my extremely unintelligent friend. It is widely agreed that because of the in-person vs. mail vote discrepancy, Trump will on election day be winning in the popular vote by a decent margin compared to when all mail-in votes are accounted for.

This is besides the fact that Republican registrations are surging nationally.

But if you're going to be a little bitch about politics, maybe fuck off back to red dit so we can have our nice political gambling thread in peace?

Word on the street everyone loves Trump not creepy Joe bidon the news hates Trump last time thay said thair was a 95 present chance he would loos even after the eligals vote and the mail in ballot scams Trump will win by a landslide.I think my dog voting joe bidon and my dead grandpa with Trump will still win

>>22326604
Well put friend

>>22326578
>It was actually Bush in 2004
You are right there, I concede but you're also a tranny, so we'll have to agree to disagree.
>>22326578
>It is widely agreed
That's a stupid thing to say faggot. A think-tank has concluded a likely delayed dem landslide. That is not "widely agreed".>>22326578
>fuck off back to red dit so we can have our nice political gambling thread
How many rupees are you betting Ranjeesh?

I'm worried about bookies not paying out Trump-betters if Democrats contest the election.

>>22324021
>>22327110
No-brainer for Trump otherwise, but you lost your betting window because odds are shit for him now. Should've bet a month ago. Betting on specifics is more risky and entering gambling territory imo.

It's AUGUR thread now. Don't trust your money to betfair's bookies, use decentralized oracles like Augur/Kleros.

>>22326092
If you actually followed their thinking and how they determine the model you'd realize its designed to reflect reality and not your fee fees

>>22327178
>Don't trust your money to betfair's bookies
This. I bet on cloudbet using vpn and its a race against time whether I'm able to cashout on election day before they close my account. Not worth the hassle.

>>22325702
Polls are still reliable, 538 gave Trump a roughly 30% chance of winning.
Which guess what? That happens 3 out of 10 times.

>>22326150
>Of course the smart money is popular vote lead->cash out on election day when Trump is winning->turn 200 dollars into 8,000 dollars
You can make 40x before he officially won simply by being early?

>>22327284
>Polls are still reliable
Why? They were ridiculously wrong last time? Tell me why exactly they are not making all the same mistakes again.

>>22327178
doesn't augur have like a $500 sign up fee?
last i checked it did.
absolutely dead on arrival.

What's a good site to bet on? Thinking of betting on swing states.

>>22324021
Pick a swing state and go with that - you’ll get better odds than outright. Alternatively, stick some on the electoral college number. I think Trump getting 330-345 is 10:1, 345-360, 10:1. Put a little on a couple of those and you can up the odds

>>22324021
You can't just bet on anything and call it /biz/ related

>>22327633
Yes I can, I'm betting on your dubs right now.

>>22326141
Does that token let you do 30-100x ?

>>22327450
>doesn't augur have like a $500 sign up fee?
fees depend on trx cost on ethereum mainnet, it seems true decentralization is in high demand nowadays.

>>22327442
There is no reasonable answer that these mindless shit-eaters can give.
>hurrr muh polls
>hurrr who cares if we were caught out oversampling left wing trash
>hurrr nah uh there's no way that the purpose of polls has always been to manipulate mainstream perception this is HARD SCIENCE because it uses NUMBERS

>>22324021
The fact that all of 4chan thinks trump will win is an easy 100 percent sign that biden will win, just remember that when you all start crying about losing all ur money on election day.

>>22325702
2016 wasn't the blowout you remember it as
yes trump flipped a bunch of blue states but he won them by very narrow margins. The night could have easily gone the other way

>>22327284

The thing I don't understand is why so many of the "reputable" (according to them) ones are allowed to do shit like spot Biden and Clinton +10 or +15 nationally when a Democrat hasn't won like that in like 100 fucking years. Some of the pollsters are literally frauds that have never been close but still get lumped into the aggregate because they help skew the total.

>>22329791
>The fact that all of 4chan thinks trump will win is an easy 100 percent sign that biden will win,
Is that because they were wrong in 2016?

>>22329799

Elections are usually a game of margins in battleground states, he still strung together 3 or 4 that he wasn't expected to get and that makes it a significant win.

>>22329828
Trump has gained literally no votes since 2016, he barely won 2016, he lost a ton of votes since then, its common sense to see that he will lose in 2020, especially considering the economy is in the shit, which is literally the number one indicator of whether an incumbent will win a 2nd term.

I've been wondering why PredictIt odds for Trump are so out of wack with the polls and I guess this thread explains why lol

>b...buhh 2016

Yeah dude 2016 polls had a small but ultimately electorally significant error, due to not weighting education properly and therefore undercounting Republicans. Nearly all pollsters adjusted their methods for the 2018 midterms, and the polls were much better then.

Leaving aside any partisanship, I don't see why you'd bet on Trump right now given how far down he is in polls, even with his electoral college advantage. The smart bet is on Biden, who is only given about a 50% chance to win despite having a clear and sustained polling advantage for months.

Both McCain and Romney had periods where they led Obama in summer/fall (McCain was actually leading this time in 2008 but then financial crisis rip).

Fundamentally don't see a reason to plunk real money on Trump unless you literally believe in meme magic or some shit. No wonder /biz/ loses money constantly.

>>22329922
You didn't answer my question.

This election kind of reminds me of the circumstances of the Leave/Remain vote in Britain. Immediately after Brexit pollsters teased out a decent "Remainer" lead for the next few years claiming the referendum was a fluke and the public was actually on their side, and then when the next election rolled around conservatives and leavers absolutely shellacked the Remain side.

Ignoring the possibility that pollsters are actually deliberately fraudulent (I don't think all of them are), they have a serious issue in identifying real "likely voters" or getting an honest answer from their question. There are a lot of lazy, low information voters that will passively side with the mainstream, media endorsed position (Remain, or Biden), that ignores the enormous impact of enthusiasm and turnout come actual election day.

Biden has bad, bad enthusiasm numbers despite carrying a lead due to his "not-Trump" status. I think this figures to be a bigger statistical discrepancy than 2016 where the media has to be shut up a second time, in major fashion.

>>22329995
>polls had a small but ultimately electorally significant error
98% chance Hillary will win.

>>22325587
get a load of this fag

>>22325587

Funny how much closer it gets when it's an actual impartial, official, regulated election and not some leftist think tank's carefully curated proprietary data

>>22329999
Lol dude, trump only won 2016 because of hillary, thats it, it wasn't some crazy conspiracy, there was just far more against hillary voters, plus she still won the popular vote, meaning biden will win that by a land slide, and even further, a lot of random trump votes came because people just wanted to see what would happen, well that nuance is gone and they wont be voting for him again, especially with the republican party doing everything they can to screw the average voter by stopping the stimulus bills from getting passed. Like I said before, the economy means everything during elections, its in the shit, so whether trump directly caused it or not, its gonna fuck him over.

>>22330072
ok? Not sure how that's relevant to my post. Pollsters made a methodological mistake in 2016, and then election analysts compounded the problem with overconfident models.

It's like you people think the polling industry has been sitting w/ its collective thumb up its ass for four years. If pollsters still had the same problems as in 2016, it would have showed up in the 2018 midterms or any of the special elections between then and now.

It is possible that pollsters have screwed something *new* up. Like underestimating Trump's popularity w/ latinos or something. But we can't be sure of that one way or the other till be get actual results.

>>22330007
It is true that most voters don't pay attention till after the conventions, which is why polls starting about now get a lot more reliable. Still time for movement (still got debates after all) but if Biden's still leading by 5 in tipping point states in three weeks he's looking pretty good.

>>22329995
Read >>22330007
I think its a coinflip at the moment though, and will not be betting till october.

>>22324021
>his time there are the riots and while I'm not saying he's senile I just don't think Biden has got it in him to hold up in the debates.

The riots are ultimately meaningless in terms of taking left-wing votes out of the equation. Many Liberal voters are in open support of them, several are probably participating in them, and even for the ones that openly disagree with them, they aren't going to vote for Trump because of it. I'd argue a similar aspect works in favor of Trump with the exception of Independents and those who are towards the center, who are more focused on the widespread violent police response and obscene lack of accountability that went on for a couple of months on literally every social media network. Trump lost a colossal amount of neutral good faith with that, and as much as people hate it when niggers are tearing up their neighborhood, the amount of actual damage is still in comparatively specific areas (for example, the unsourced claims of BLM killing thousands and destroying billions in property damage means nothing to the hundreds of millions who have never actually been touched by the riots, and the small amount who actually have aren't going to swing an entire state).

Also, Biden doesn't need to stand on his own. Ultimately tons of Liberals are voting for Kamala, because she's at least strong-willed and capable enough to pick up the throne if Biden croaks, and even if he doesn't, Kamala represents the Independent Strong Black Woman archetype that Libs, feminists, and cuckolds in general love to see in power anyways. Trump has damaged his reputation among Republicans, he has literally zero Liberal support, and Independents are trying to distance themselves from him more and more. If you're making a good money bet, you'll sit on Trump because the turnout will bring big pulls if he makes a miracle happen. Smart money, however, is Biden with a mild Blue splash (not a wave) of senate seat flips.

>>22330257
>niggers and college retards are allowed to destroy blue cities, making left wing normies feel unsafe and attacked for even trying to defend their own neighborhoods
>Biden has some pretty noticeable cognitive issues and can't even talk clearly because he has fucking dementia
Yeah the democrats definitely have it in the bag. Surefire thing.

You fucking simpleton. Back to plebbit.

>>22330257
Get off our board we dont need you here.

The democrats have all but conceded early and are calling for a prolonged vote count before there is even a vote. Everyone knows the gaslighting operation has failed and Trump is heading to a record popular turnout while Biden is heading to a record low.

Your bet needs to be on whether or not you think the DNC has the ground game to rig the vote and the court process up to the Supreme Court. If they don't have the ground game, Trump's landslide will be certified. If they do, then it's up in the air before the US court system and military.

If you just want to bet on the race, Biden lost before he began and Kamala is the least popular and most disliked VP candidate in US history.

Bet on Trump.

>>22324251
Should say "citizen-associate"

>>22330264
>It is true that most voters don't pay attention till after the conventions, which is why polls starting about now get a lot more reliable. Still time for movement (still got debates after all) but if Biden's still leading by 5 in tipping point states in three weeks he's looking pretty good.

The polls were off by 10% in some cases in some of the battleground states Trump won. They didn't even think Wisconsin was in play.. he won there by 5%. Why? Non college educated white voters fleeing the Democratic party en masse in the midwest. Former unioners basically, and they're still a massively untapped electorate. Will the polls get their turnout numbers right this time around? We'll see, I guess, as an Ohioan I surmise we'll go even harder right this time around. Coastals haven't been through what we've been through, the perspective is entirely different, people find inspiration in him.

I'm not cocky enough to think this is some kind of lock for Trump but I believe that "Trump voters" are a lot more enthusiastic about the actual candidate than "Biden voters" are, who are more just annoyed with Trump at this point than the least bit inspired by Biden's candidacy. There is an unironic #SettleForBiden hashtag trend I see going around on instagram with my lib friends. That's abysmal.

>>22330264
>It is true that most voters don't pay attention till after the conventions
This isn't relevant as outraged Sanders supporters poured into their home towns and burned down small businesses. Everyone is focused on this right now. The debates aren't even here yet.

I'm voting for Trump.

>>22324021
>bet on Biden
>vote Trump
>Biden wins win money
>Trump wins Yang wins get the money back and then some

>>22324021
>bet on Biden
>vote Trump
>Biden wins -> win money
>Trump wins -> Yang wins -> get the money back and then some