/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>22151806
>federal government will NOT let home prices fall

What the fuck does this even mean schizo

Won't prices fall when millions of people get evicted and owners need to sell their houses since nobody will be able to rent?

>>22151854
The Fed has been buying tons Mortgage securities since COVID hit

It’s America’s number one asset. You really think (((they))) would crash with no survivors?

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSACSR
monthly home supplies are getting near ALL TIME LOWS.
if anyone from econ 101 can tell me what that means you get candy

>>22151806
>Will home prices fall over the next 4 years or no?
I keep hoping so but I increasingly can't fathom a scenario short of nuclear apocalypse where house prices are allowed to fall at all.

>Boomers die from COVID
There is so much millenial demand it wouldn't even matter
>stonks crash
Flight into 'safe' assets = house prices moon
>hyperinflation
great time to be in cheap debt, house prices moon
>evictions and foreclosures
congress will never let it happen, easier to get the FED to pay mortgages for them, or just make banks eat the loss
>riots and civil war
rural and suburban homes triple in value, urban homes become affordable but only because they are in a fucking warzone

Change my mind, literally nothing will make house prices fall at this point. Ruling interests, boomers, elites, they'll stop at nothing to keep this shit inflated forever. If you can't afford a down payment right now and if you can't swallow your pride to buy a house right now even though it's already 3x overvalued, you'll never be able to afford a home and will become a part of the new permanent rentier-serf underclass.

>>22151914
No. Banks will just restrict supply.

>>22151914
this is implying people will get evicted. it's easier to just print the money and pay off homeowners

>>22151914
evictions will not happen immediately, land lords and banks will eat costs short term while tenants are unable to pay.

eventually, evictions will occur, banks will eat cost or get bailed out, land lords will get forbearance/payment deferrals, and everyone lives to fight another day except the lower tranche consumer/wage slave who effectively lost their home.

sucks to suck in the housing market

I'd say home prices will fall in areas millenials don't want to live/work/play, eventually.

>>22151806
if you can save a lot of money on a mortgage payment vs monthly rent in your area then go for it. Otherwise it probably isn't worth it.

If you are going to buy, I think the best bet would be to buy in an area that doesn't have a reputation as a great school district. I think those areas are still reasonably priced right now from what I've seen. You could get lucky and catch a redistricting that sends your house value up 30% over night. I've seen this go the other way, where one of my coworkers lost $100k in theoretical equity overnight because his county got redistricted so that more black kids could go to his schools.

>>22151806
honestly ive been banking on it but i expected them to have fallen already so not sure anymore.

>>22151806

It is a good time to buy right now. I dont know if prices will fall, but rates are very low right now. You can get into a house for around 3.5% down, with a rate under 3% in most cases. If you want me to do a mortgage estimate for you email me

mortgageanon@protonmail.com

>t. loan officer

>>22152281
I understand rates are incredibly low right now, ~3%, but how does that math help? For example, if the house is 300k, but goes down in value to 150-200k, does that 3% interest rate even matter?

Thanks loan anon.

>>22152278
If the biden running today was the one of yesterday that fought this shit I'd vote for him. Niggers destroy everything.

>>22152028
I don't disagree with any of what you said, but rent is already a huge % of a lot of wagecucks' post tax incomes. In my city (northern Europe) a small 3 room apartmen can easily run you $2k+/ month.If rental yields remain the same (they're already at/ near all time lows) a lot of wagies will get completely priced out of renting in the city. In other words, I'm not sure if there's enough rentcucking demand to support huge gains in the housing market. Especially not if the real economy keeps getting rekt and we get a bunch of evictions and foreclosures.

That being said, I don't expect house prices dump either (for the reasons you mentioned). I think the most likely scenario is that prices remain stable/ increase slightly over the next 5 years.

>>22152685
I think high end properties don't have a lot of room to go up. But the cheaper stuff has room to run, because the rent/value ratios are better as you alluded to

>>22151806
It's never a bad time to buy a house!

>>22152028
Yes this is true. If you live with u mama, stay there. If you want stable monthly payments, buy.

>>22151806
the great correction is around the corner.

>>22151806
economy is going to crash around november, along with a huge second wave during flu season. dark times are ahead my friend. the housing market will for sure finally crash in the west since immigration is suspended due to the pandemic.

>>22152348


Yes it does. We all saw the fed state it would allow inflation to rise over their usual 2.5% target rate. This will force investors out of the bond markets to pursue higher yield products. Mortgage rates are directly related to the performance of the UMBS 30 yr bond.

So for example, on that 300000 house at a rate of 3%, your monthly payment before taxes and insurance will be $1227. House prices dropped an average of 18% in the 2008 crash, so lets assume that in 6 months there is a crash, and same house is now only worth 238600, but because the bond market got rekt, now your interest rate is 5% (which is actually where they were 2-3 years ago). Your monthly payment on that same home at that reduced price with that rate before taxes and insurance will be $1281.

Thats why your rate is so significant. On top of all this though, is the fact that if you were to just buy now, by the time the market crashes, you would have 6 months worth of equity already built into that home, that you would have thrown away on rent waiting for the dip
-mortgageanon

>>22153300
help a mortgage brainlet out please, I don't get it

In that example, why not wait for 6 months for the $238,600 price and save $60k?

I'd rather buy something for 5% rate at $238,600 than 3% rate for 300,000.. right?

>>22153606

Because over the life of the loan you end up paying ~71,500 more in interest on the loan at 5%

>>22154059
30 year loan right .. ok thank you, that helps

>>22152281

I'm actually trying to get a house. Is it easy to get an FHA loan? In addition to a down payment, what other jew fees will I have to pay?

>>22154510

No problem anon. Im heading to bed. If you have any other mortgage questions email me, mortgageanon@protonmail.com.

Watch taxes. If desperate governments need money to fund pensions for example and they can't get it, property taxes will be among the first things to go up when the rich and the businesses flee.

>>22154602
goodnight

>>22154543

Yeah it is relatively easy. In addition to down payment you will need to pay for prepaid escrow items, and upfront mortgage insurance. All FHA loans require MI. If you are a first time homebuyer, I can look at doing a conventional loan for you with 3% down and no prepaid MI, but your monthly payments might be higher.

Im going to sleep, but ill gladly respond to any other questions at my email, mortgageanon@protonmail.com

>>22152002
This, they’ll just price people out completely into being renters, gives them more control

>>22152002
Fucking stupid or what?
>>> // - [ (((they))) ] - \\ <<<
create the boom/bust cycles and love to buy up all the commercial and residential real estate for pennies on the dollar. And this time around, it’ll make every previous cycle look tame. There will be blood.