/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>21750557
2/1 odds seriously? I would say he has an 80% chance of winning at least

>>21750557
How can one even do this? Do you mean selling my linkies and going on predictit or something. If so I'm never ever selling my linkies you God damn like.

>>21750629
if election was 100% fair I would go all in, but with all this of using mail in ballots I would be scared Biden might actually win

>>21750557
i will

>>21750557
>easily
he will get dumpstered on how he handled the covid issue.

>>21750557
The odds have been shit all year long. Trumps win is too obvious, it would make more sense to put 150 bucks on Biden for the off chance Trump gets assassinated

Biden will kill the 4chan nazi meme coin.

>>21750557
i voted for trump in 2016, and i dont think he'll win this time. then again, i didnt think he'd win last time, so my record is 0% correctly predicting the outcome of trump's elections lol.

>>21750557
The potential roi is doubling your money. The potential loss is losing all of your money. I'm just gonna keep my LINKs. Not worth the risk imo unless you have enough info to know for absolute certainty that he is going to win. We never know what the elites have planned and everyone should know that elections with fucking paper ballots are a joke. Secure electronic voting through internet like here in Estonia is the way to go.

>>21750557
How and where do you bet on presidential elections? Asking for a friend.

>>21751589
on sportbetting sites like bwin for example

>>21751589
mybookie

>>21751115
>muh fakevid
shut the fuck up nigger i live in a deep blue state and regularly hear leftists calling for the death of our leftist governor for how badly they fucked this up with the nursing homes and STILL being shut down killing small businesses. no one blames the president for our states local incompetences

>>21750557
We're still too far out for me to be confident, but I'm optimistic, I bet on Donald in 2016 and was certain of his victory around Halloween. Let's see how the debates go and if Trump gets his campaign going harder.

>>21751589
I used Brovada Sportsbook and Predictit in 2016, but I'll be using Fairlay and Predictit this time around.

Didn't bet all my money but bet this.

>>21751730
Atleast I know who's paying my winnings when you lose. Thank you Anon for your sacrifice

>>21751774
>Atleast I know who's paying my winnings when you lose
Prove it.

>>21751774
>Atleast I know who's paying my winnings when you lose
LARP.

All the data I have seen suggests that most Biden supporters are only supporting him because he's not Trump. Thats a very bad sign for Biden. There is no enthusiasm behind his campaign.

>>21751839
>>21751791

Shush now

>>21751903
This. 'I'm not that guy' does not get people out to vote.

>>21751125
>>21751726
the debate might be so one sided that Biden gets the empathy vote as Donld Trump beats the living fucking shit out of an old dementia rattled old man.

>>21751960
OHH DAAAAAAAAMN DUDE. You did not just bet 1pounds!!??

>>21751978
you underestimate how much people hate trump

>>21752003
Rather take a £53 win than a £2k lose hahahaha

>>21751960

Kek a big fat hundo so confident.

>>21751903
he doesn't really have a campaign,e is backed by 90% of the Media and still has not really done anything other than orange man bad.

>>21751774
I wouldn't be so confident lol, are you even American? there's a serious enthusiasm gap, and there have been reports of an increase of newly registered Republican voters in important states like Pennsylvania.

https://www.inquirer.com/politics/pennsylvania/pennsylvania-party-voter-registration-trump-biden-20200729.html

>Democrats’ Voter Registration Edge Has Shrunk in Pa.
>Democrats had 801,749 more registered voters than Republicans did in this year’s primary election, down from an edge of 936,021 voters in 2016.

>Since 2016, Democrats added a net 30,506 registered voters, Republicans added 164,778, and third-party and unaffiliated registrations increased by 130,307.

This is interesting because Trump's primary didn't matter, did all these newly registered Republicans change for local elections? Perhaps, but it's a good sign for a state that Trump won by less than 1%.

https://www.newsmax.com/politics/florida-voter-registration-democrats-republicans/2020/08/07/id/981059/

>The Times noted that with seven weeks until mail ballots go out for the Nov. 3 election, Florida Republicans are now closer to parity in voter registration than they’ve been in decades.

>At one point in 2008, Democrats had a more than a 500,000 voter advantage in registration in the state. By 2016, the lead was down to 259,000. The Times, citing the latest data from the Florida Division of Elections, said Democrats now have a 240,423 advantage over Republicans in the state.

>>21751960
lol you deserve to lose your money for taking such shit odds

>>21752015
Yes, but to win an election you need to put forth a positive vision, Biden's "Not Trump" isn't inspiring. His recent speech tried to do that with garbled metaphors about "light" and what not, but look at his "Build Back Better" rhetoric he's just cribbed Trump's agenda. Does anybody believe that Biden, who voted for the Iraq War, supported NAFTA, and sold out to China will really bring back those jobs?

>>21752037
>Rather take a £53 win than a £2k lose hahahaha
Since you don't have much money to spend, despite your confidence, I would say you haven't been very successful in the past.

>>21752121
>Democrats’ Voter Registration Edge Has Shrunk in Pa.
Bullish news. Thanks anon. Did not know this.

>>21750557
As soon as debates start, Biden will get rekt into oblivion

>>21752015
>you underestimate how much people hate trump
My bet rests to some degree on the belief that new Trump supporters were so vilified, that there was no way back to the Dems without a huge loss of face.
Also, the fact that if you have a Trump lawn sign, in many areas, you risk getting it stolen, your property damaged or physically assaulted - this is makes people double down.
Finally, voters know the economy was booming pre-Covid and the economy matters now, they want someone aggressive and proven, that's Trump, not demented Biden.

>>21750557
>not betting all your link stack on Trump this yea
Show bet

>>21752176
no prob guv, I'm assuming you're a good Brexit supporting lad if you're betting on Trump, I'm still not 100% confident he will win, but small things like that are definitely worth noting. The media likes to glob on to polls with weak analysis while ignoring interesting information like that. The states that matter are the ones that were in play in 2016. The rustbelt: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, & Minnesota. If you look at Predictit (not sure if Brits can access the site), you can see, people on that website are particularly delusional.

I think Biden or his handlers learned from 2016 and will grease more palms (black people churches), but I have heard they don't even have an in person campaign head quarters and are disorganized, whereas Trump has kept an in person campaign staff on site (with no masks!). Just personally I have driven cross country through Ohio, West Virginia, Kentucky, & Maryland and I've only seen Trump signs. But these were rural areas, that's what you'd expect right? But where are the moderates, the working class? Will they return to the Democrats who sold them out?

Note: I have only bet $250 on Trump winning North Carolina on predictit.

In a fair election Trump comfortably wins

But the dems are so butthurt after 4 years of being tormented they will stoop to new lows in order to cheat

>>21752585
>But the dems are so butthurt after 4 years of being tormented they will stoop to new lows in order to cheat
This is my concern.

There will unironically be a civil war if trump wins

>>21752640

Wrong other way around.

>>21752640
>There will unironically be a civil war if trump wins
The Right has all the guns but the world is mostly liberal. That adds pressure.

>>21752640

Your idiots are already out in the streets rioting and burning shit.

Trumps people are at home because they know he’ll win. If he gets robbed of it then shit will hit the fan.

All of this is political chicken to try to demoralize the right enough to not vote/accept a Trump loss. It won’t happen.

>>21752794
I’m a neutral observer, i guess you could argue there will be a civil war no matter what happens.

>>21752860
I would say definitely civil unrest.

Americans are retarded lol

>>21752860
there won't be a civil war, there will be a resurgence of populism down the line if Trump loses because this system can't be sustained

>>21750557
Trump has a shit advertising campaign though. Its all about the adverts, and offering something new. How do you think that nigger won

he's not winning though

Anybody who doesn't think there will be a Trump landslide needs to seriously question their intelligence. The polls are not even lying any more because it was game over for the dems even before the riots started.

>>21753075
Sure, snoflake

>>21753106
place your bets and stfu

>>21753075
yeah bro, cnn said so

>>21753105
delusional

>>21753153
i'm not even american

>>21753162
You sound like one. Like dumb and fat one

>>21751700
Kek deluded. Trump consistently downplayed the virus and then bafflingly seemed resistant to advocating for masks. He tried moving states for his nomination before finally capitulating like a bitch

>>21753200
relax dude, he's not going to win, he just won because hilary was also a shit choice

>>21751960
Lol he’s betting 20x your amount and he going to ship it

Bong faggot

>>21753236
imagine thinking biden is better than hillary

>>21751125
This.

>>21752228
Holy shit you can’t really believe this

>>21753265
No, but it's psychological. An older women with health issues doesn't get linked with leader capaicity's. An man gets more respect. Little things like that

>>21753160
Are you mad? There is zero fucking energy right now on the dems side. An absolute shit show of a DNC, worst possible candidate you could find out of 300 million people to challenge Trump. An obvious VP pick to try and gains few black/women votes even though blacks hate this bitch, many having come to their senses anyway. The silent majority including many left/centrists are sick to the back teeth of the lawlessness going on right now and even if you think Trump is dick who says stupid things now and again, hes literally what the country needs right now to save it from this leftist communist bullshit. If you cannot sense the sentiment across the country then you are seriously retarded.

>>21753296
>An man

https://youtu.be/3EDtys1sIq0

tfw the finance board has better political discussions than the politics board

>>21753349
based pedo

>>21753275
Get the fuck out if here. Biden won't debate Trump, we all know it. It would be funny as hell to watch but they won't allow it

>>21753275
see >>21753349
he is a nutter and will probably suck on Trumps Finger live

>>21750557
Everyone I know is voting for trump. I dont vote, but If I did vote, like a cuck, I would vote for Trump.
Trump 2020
Bolsonaro 2022
Israel forever

>>21753437
what state are you from? I have money riding on this

>>21753212
>MUH MASKS! WEAR DE MASK OR GO TO JAIL!!! WE'RE IN A HECKIN' PANDEMICRINO!!!!!

I refuse to believe anyone who advocates for masks on 4chan isn't either a troll or a shill.

I think the election could go either way. One thing however I'm completely sure of is that Trump will lose the popular vote. There is not way 3 millions americans who didn't like him before like him now. He has done nothing to widen the tent. So if he wins it's another bullshit muh dirt technicality

>>21753275
Yeah Joe Biden would destroy Trump in a debate with his cutting intellect

Are people who voted for trump actually happy with his past 4 years?

>>21753490
>bullshit muh dirt technicality

You mean the electoral college? Yeah I'm sorry the founding fathers foresaw the day when demons would flood the country with "democrats" so they made it so it was a little harder to affect elections with that strategy

>>21753499
Well, yes. Trump will most likely pussy out of the debates anyways, and claim that it’s because of fake news. Mark my words

>>21753517
Why are you so obsessed with American politics if you aren't American? I don't give a shit about politics in whatever shithole you're from, fuck off.

>>21753517
Yes. Thrilled. Only libwashed retards are not happy. Economically the us is as strong as its ever been.

T. Bet on biden dropping out (guy cant even speak sentences)

>>21753595
If trump wins the market will pump else it will dump. I'm hoping for a big dump

>>21750739
The corruption in the US government in #1 in the world, the sophistication and level is runs at has no other comparison. Dems & Rep are all corporate crooks.

>>21753472
You are a retard
>just sacrifice 20% of the worlds population because I want short term gains
How can anyone seriously be this dumb? If the entire world economy shut down for 2 months we would be in an astronomically better position that we are now.

Now I understand why 4chan is filled with mongoloids. It's because they are from the US kek

all in'd my life savings on cali and ny flipping

>>21753597
The economy is literally the weakest it has been in the history of the country, you are a complete retard

>>21753517
Yes. Long list of achievements all whilst being the most attacked man on the face of the planet. Every single fucking day. Imagine facing this in your job whilst still doing it effectively. People have seen the light. Just because the left shout and cry the loudest, don't be fooled but the incoming landslide.

as a brit I have to say I've fucking LOVED how mad everyone around the world (especially in the UK) has been since Trump got in
>mfw I bet £20 on him to win and won £120
I really REALLY hope he wins again because the amount of butthurt that will ensue will be magnificent

doesn't even bother me whether hes actually competent, nothing compares to watching normies screeching and being "traumatised" by the big orange yank gobshite

>>21753472
Plenty of good evidence for masks you fucking retard. I work in a hospital with plenty of covid patients and you would be dumb as hell to go into one of the wards without an n95

>>21753674
Err, I wonder why it took a downturn.

>>21750557
Who gives a fuck. It's all theater

>>21753591
>Trump will most likely pussy out of the debates
He's asking for more debate. You don't follow politics, do you?

>>21753709
Yeh I made a decent amount in 2016 on Trump. If you think the lefty crying videos were funny then, they will be more epic in November.

>>21753595
>Why are you so obsessed with American politics if you aren't American? I don't give a shit about politics in whatever shithole you're from, fuck off.
You're essentially saying you don't know anything outside your own country and you somehow thought that was an insult.

>>21753517
Yea, his support within the Republican party is skyhigh, but it's the moderates in the middle who will decide the election.

>>21753591
lol this must be Fud, the NYT has literally published opinion pieces encouraging Biden not to debate Trump. Biden could pull it off on the right meds and good prep, but Trump sure as hell won't pussy out.

>>21753517
Yeah, he's lowered taxes, built a good chunk of the border wall, advanced diplomacy with north korea, and *not* done several things that would have fucked us over (ie; more wars that Biden supports, more immigration that all libs support, bent over for China like Biden is getting us ready for, etc;)

>>21750557
>betting your link stack
>against the outcome of an event that can't be observed by a decentralized network of oracles
Yeah I'm not letting the dems steal the election AND my linkies.

>>21753328
sure i sense the sentiment, but i trust numbers more. inb4 "but muh polls were wrong in 2016!!" yes they were. but this time it's just unequivocal. biden is an absolute shit candidate, but he's going to win by a landslide, no matter how much you want that not to be true.
the polls don't lie.

>>21753852
>advanced diplomacy with north korea,
This is how dumb trumpers are.

>>21753919
that would normally be true, but you can easily get fired/have a leftist mob show up at your house, if you openly support trump. you have no idea where the information you put on a poll is going to go, therefore trump voters either lie or dont answer. it's not going to be a landslide either way, but trump will carry the midwest again and that will make the difference, again.

>>21753563
>harder to affect elections
You mean harder to win when you actually have a majority? The idea that conservatives would see no benefit from the dissolution of electoral college is also bullshit: what about all the republicans in California whose votes don't count? There should be no baked-in bias for either side. The bare minimum is convincing a majority of the country that your way is the right way, end of story

>>21753709
>this is what conservatism is now
>LE EBIC TROLL MAN
might as well buy a trump funko pop you fucking cuck

>>21753919
>polls don't lie
Now I know your trolling.
"Joe Biden drew no bump from his powerful speech at the Democratic National Convention
Biden’s odds of winning the 2020 US Presidential election have faded to -136
Incumbent Donald Trump improved to a betting line of +104*

>>21754027
>you can easily get fired/have a leftist mob show up at your house, if you openly support trump
This. I think that makes people double down. People don't like feeling intimidated to vote for someone and no one is watching when you're in that polling booth.

>>21754029
the US was set up as a representative republic. the electoral college and senate are not designed to be about a majority of voters. if they were, the nation would never have formed, because the smaller/less populous states would never have joined. if this is ever changed, expect nullification, secession, and massive violent unrest everywhere as the rural areas become no-go zones for commerce. urban enclaves rely on commerce, they die when it stops or even when it slows.

>>21754018
democrats cried when trump went to a peace summit with NK lmao
do you guys *want* more wars?

>>21753919
>polls are going to be correct this time because i said so
No, polls are going to be bullshit again for the same reason they were bullshit last time. They're an inherently flawed way of predicting outcomes of elections. People aren't given the same privacy they are while voting for real and are chosen from demographics/areas where they can be expected to vote a certain way (whether deliberately or not).
Tell me more about how 20-year-olds sipping Starbucks and using Macbooks in CA predicted Biden's victory.

>>21754255
>polls are going to be bullshit again for the same reason they were bullshit last time. They're an inherently flawed way of predicting outcomes of elections. People aren't given the same privacy they are while voting for real and are chosen from demographics/areas where they can be expected to vote a certain way (whether deliberately or not).
Polls are bullshit but not so much for your reasons, Trump voters, mostly older white males, don't pick up the phone and entertain some pajeet asking for voting information. They are grumpy fuckers who are more likely to yell "take me off your fucking database!"

You all can't REALLY believe that the guy who said this:

“Look, having nuclear — my uncle was a great professor and scientist and engineer, Dr. John Trump at MIT; good genes, very good genes, OK, very smart, the Wharton School of Finance, very good, very smart — you know, if you’re a conservative Republican, if I were a liberal, if, like, OK, if I ran as a liberal Democrat, they would say I’m one of the smartest people anywhere in the world — it’s true! — but when you’re a conservative Republican they try — oh, do they do a number — that’s why I always start off: Went to Wharton, was a good student, went there, went there, did this, built a fortune — you know I have to give my like credentials all the time, because we’re a little disadvantaged — but you look at the nuclear deal, the thing that really bothers me — it would have been so easy, and it’s not as important as these lives are — nuclear is so powerful; my uncle explained that to me many, many years ago, the power and that was 35 years ago; he would explain the power of what’s going to happen and he was right, who would have thought? — but when you look at what’s going on with the four prisoners — now it used to be three, now it’s four — but when it was three and even now, I would have said it’s all in the messenger; fellas, and it is fellas because, you know, they don’t, they haven’t figured that the women are smarter right now than the men, so, you know, it’s gonna take them about another 150 years — but the Persians are great negotiators, the Iranians are great negotiators, so, and they, they just killed, they just killed us, this is horrible.”"

could actually win a debate, could you? The guy speaks like your half deranged grandpa who's drunk all the time and people only respond "that's nice dear" to his incomprehensible ramblings

Got a couple of $100s riding on Kamala.

It pays times 250.

The bet is made on Bidens lack of health and mind, and that he have to drop out.

Also have $100 on Pelosi, if the rules are that she is the default candidate if drop out Biden?

It pays x500.

Also have Bernie, since he got nominated by AOC, he might be the candidate if drop out Biden? I don't know.

Pays x67.

If Biden wins, I'll loose ~$500

>>21754486
Where have you been the past four years? People eat that shit up. He could definitely win a debate.

Why the fuck are you mongoloids voting for this brain dead orangutan, are you sadistic fucks ready to see the country become a dictatorship where they take all our linkies away? How are you ever going to cash out?
>can’t read fucking charts, thinks 200% cases growth rate is ONLY due to a 25% increase in testing
Fuck Biden, but I’ll be damned if I’m voting for this imbecile and suffering through another for years of this shit

>>21754657
people will call it an inspirational speech from a "real" president kek

>>21754486
he won the primary debates in 2016, and if he didn't win the presidential ones (everybody only remembers "You'd be in jail") they didn't cause Hillary to win.

this is troll

>>21754130
We were never going to war retard. The goal was to get them to give up nukes. Everything else is pointless

>>21754843
why the fuck do you think north korea spends so much on nukes

>>21754682

>>21750557
No president has ever won with a down economy I just don’t see a world where trump wins. The only thing that I could think is if he steals the election. And he’s also pissed of the cis and fbi literally the two entities you don’t mess with ever in dc. Winning is his only way to escape prosecution. He’ll do whatever is takes but I just don’t see a world where trump outsmarts anyone of intelligence who also has power , namely the cia. He messed with powers that he should have left alone and if the Russia thing is true they are pissed.

>betting your link

>>21751115
Exactly no way the fox propaganda machine can cover up the anger of 50 million who lost their jobs and the 170000 families who lost a loved one

>>21750629
Given the election has only 2 out of 6 electoral college scenarios where trump wins, it sounds reasonable.

>>21754843
>>21754130
>>21754944
>no more wars

>>21755135
>50m people who lost their jobs, 170k families who lost a loved one
This is why many blue governors and mayors are going to be out of a job soon.

>>21750557
I got in at 2.25-1 some of my friends got 2.5-1 last month.

>>21753499
Probably. All Hillary had to do is attack him personally and he wouldn't shut up. If Biden's strategists aren't fucking stupid, they would advise him to constantly keep trump rambling about how great he is.

>>21755135
Yeah, I don’t see a popular vote win for trump either...he has only lost people with the Covid issue. He hasn’t gained any new supporters....the pool has only Getty smaller.

>>21751960
Imagine thinking you’re actually informed about another nations election sentiments, and then taking it a step further by betting on fucking Biden. Have fun losing the bet that I call lunch money on a Tuesday, retard.

>>21755407
Most of them blame trumps lack of a Covid plan....not the govs or mayors. They only saw trump as setting them up for failure.

>>21750557
You can't, though. Unless your stack is less than $1000. You can only bet around 900

>>21755400
MAGA

>>21753853
> he doesn't know

>>21755531
>corona hoax

>>21755531
>>21755474
I've made some cogent points in this thread, and I suspect you of either being braindead or of fudding read >>21752121 if you believe Trump hasn't gained any new supporters, the margin of registered Republicans is getting closer to Democrats in important swing states.

>>21755626
You're making a fatal assumption that third parties are backing trump. Frankly dem/rep voters almost don't matter.

>>21755531
If you've been reading what the media says, maybe. Irl I've seen people blaming our (PA) governor and congress for acting slowly and shutting down the country.
I've heard similar things from people in other states. Twitter and big media really aren't indicative of the real world luckily.

>>21753472
>MUH MASKS! WEAR DE MASK OR GO TO JAIL!!! WE'RE IN A HECKIN' PANDEMICRINO!!!!!
Speaking like a retard is not an argument.

>>21754334
Polls are mostly fine, they were only off by a few points in 2016, if you just give trump a +3 boost in any poll you read that gives you a pretty accurate picture imo.

So that gives biden with a small lead, which makes sense. Very little enthusiasm for him but dem voters are very motivated against trump, and many “moderates”/swing voters just want things to go back to “normal”, especially older ones

It’s a small edge though so trump could easily make it up if the debates go badly for biden or there’s a successful corona vaccine rollout or something. I think this will happen but acting like trump is comfortably ahead is delusional

>>21755758
thinking that anyone gives a shit about masks is delusional

just put a bet on betsson - deadline is tomorrow.
odds 2.3

>>21755135
Yeh it must Trump's fault that many other western countries have suffered the same fate and even have a higher death rate per capita. Fucktard.