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21458089 No.21458089 [Reply] [Original]

Theoretically how easy is it to make money from cryptos? Lets say a coin has an equal chance to go up 10x in its price or 10x down, you put in 1k if it goes up 10x you gain 9k, it it goes down 10x you lose 900.

>> No.21458163

>>21458089
That’s not how it works.

>> No.21458446
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21458446

wow. I know I'm a dumbfuck, but threads like this make me feel smart. Thanks anon, I needed that.

>> No.21458525

.5*10*x+.5*.1*x=5.05*x

>> No.21458594
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21458594

>>21458446
I DONT UNDERSTAND

>> No.21459295
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21459295

>>21458594
This is the essentially your statement:
>if your token wins, you gain money
>if you token loses, you lose money
>just pick a token that wins, how hard can it be??

How do you know that a given token has a 50/50 chance of 10x in either direction? Did you do some technical analysis or just pull that number out of your ass? How do you evaluate the fundamentals of a token? How do you determine the size of your "make it" bag? How do you know when to buy in? Should you hold or should you swing? Do you have some reasonable assurance that your token is not just some pajeet rug pull that will leave you holding a big pile of useless rotten yams? How do you cash out without getting raped by glowies?

Those aren't even interesting questions, those are basic questions. But you're not even thinking in those terms, instead you're mind is spinning on some pointless hypothetical with no value and no meaningful answer.

I feel kind of bad that I spent my time writing this up but fuck this has actually gotten me kind of angry.

>> No.21459383

>I DONT UNDERSTAND

just put that on your fucking tombstone

>> No.21459443

>>21459295
OP is an idiot but you're wrong also.

>> No.21459518

>>21459443
I didn't mean to imply that was a complete list, I was just making a point about where his head was at. Where am I wrong tho

>> No.21459528

>>21458089
OP is a retard who doesn't understand the meaning of multiplication and division, and should probably learn 4th grade math before getting into trade analysis

>> No.21459585

>>21458089
>Lets say a coin has an equal chance to go up 10x in its price or 10x down
It doesn't

>> No.21459914

>>21459518
Parameters have to determined and settled upon at some point. OP's hypothetical is extremely simple, yet extremely simple opportunities do exist. To which there is an extremely simple and meaningful answer >>21458525

Adding and piling on more and more parameters to a decision matrix does not necessarily make it better.

>> No.21460052

>>21459443
your expectation values are worse than useless in a market so volatile and speculative that it's impossible to determine probabilities in which you can place any degree of trust.

so 5.05x may be the "right" answer but it's not the "correct" answer, you get me? the "correct" answer is "don't think of it in those terms"

>> No.21460069

>>21458089
It's not like that. Everything goes down except what the other guys but.

>> No.21460346

>>21460052
>that it's impossible to determine probabilities in which you can place any degree of trust
That's a you problem. If you know Bayesian probability you know that all probabilities are personal and subjective in the first place.

>> No.21460561

So i buy 1000 of coin x worth 1 dollar the time 6 months later each coin is now worth 10 dollars i have made 9000 no? or the coin is now worth 0.10 cents and i now have 100 dollars with the loss of 900?

>> No.21460631

>>21458446
why did that image make me kek so hard. It's so fucking gay

>> No.21460682

>>21458089
>10x down
Lol, this is fantastic. Welcome to 3rd grade bro

>> No.21460947

>>21460631
yeah it's a good one

>> No.21460958

was going to blast everyone itt for falling for obvious bait but there's been that many newfags lately that I can believe it. Extremely bullish

>> No.21461013

>>21460631
It’s the art style. It looks very intense, good sense of motion. Fucking funny because of it

>> No.21461023

>>21460346
yeah you keep telling yourself that you have a mathematical model that can beat the market. worked out real well for these guys:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long-Term_Capital_Management

>> No.21461356

>>21461023
Missing the point. The math is just a useful tool and abstraction.

>> No.21461509

It'll be boring but safe and you will make decent gains long term

40 btc, 30 eth, 20 link, 5 xrp, 5 ada

If you want to become rich overnight stay far away from this recommendation

>> No.21461980

>>21461356
so what do you do? put a bunch of research into different tokens, map out shit like founding team, investors, market cap, media buzz, market cap, trading history, etc into some kind of feature space and then run simulations?

at that point you might as well run an ML algo on the feature space to build a kernel and then you're back in "Long Term Capital Management" land. once you put a bunch of quant analysis together to justify your decisions, it just seems like a really easy way to make bad decisions just because the algo told you to

>> No.21462198

>>21461980
The feature space and simulations are in the brain.