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/biz/ - Business & Finance


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21198237 No.21198237 [Reply] [Original]

>Inventories depleting fast
US crude oil inventories post sharp fall
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/economy/us-crude-oil-inventories-post-sharp-fall/1933245

>Imports drying up
Saudi Arabia Turns Off America’s Oil Taps Again
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/energy/saudi-arabia-turns-off-americas-oil-taps-again/2020/08/09/ace624f4-da05-11ea-a788-2ce86ce81129_story.html

>Domestic production plummeting
Oil drilling drops to 15-year low, shale in full retreat
https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/energy-commodities/oil-drilling-drops-to-15-year-low-shale-in-full-retreat

So once the reserves run out the US is fucked, right?

>> No.21198379

>>21198237
The reserves will be enough for us to get the wells that were unprofitable at these absurdly low prices back online. We'll make it.

>> No.21198419
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21198419

The only reason oil hasn't run out yet is demand fell off a cliff (pic related).

But when demand ramps back up, there's only enough in reserve for one month of pre-covid consumption, and that's it.

>> No.21198443
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21198443

>>21198237
Yep, looks like XOM boomerfolio is back

>> No.21198488
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21198488

>>21198379
Here's the reserves. And here's the consumption >>21198419.
You tell me, is less than a month's reserves enough time to get the rigs back into full swing?

>> No.21198990

How do I profit from this?

>> No.21199032

>>21198990
By buying an electric car or a bicycle.

>> No.21199055

>>21198488
Oil production hasn't completely stopped you nonce. One month is the amount of time we can last with literally no oil production at pre-covid consumption.

>> No.21199094

>>21198443
This is bigger than just some stock play.

Not like it hasn't happened before:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1973_oil_crisis
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1979_oil_crisis

>> No.21199275

So I should buy USO calls?

>> No.21199402

So what's actually gonna happen?

>> No.21199425

>>21199055
Production's halved. Reserves already depleting fast.
Better hope you get production up and running soon, or you're really in trouble.

>> No.21199436

>>21199402
Nothing. Life will go on as usual.

>> No.21199538

>>21198237
They're getting ready to release limitless energy tech

>> No.21199677

>>21199436
Classic American attitude
>$27 trillion of debt? No problem.
>Dollar collapsing? Don't worry it's fine.
>Massive oil shortfall with mathematically no way out? She'll be right.

I bet this is how the Romans acted while the Republic crumbled around them.

>> No.21199681

>>21198419
That's by design, idiot. Shale wells take a month to go from green fields to producing; restarting shale wells takes about ten minutes.

>> No.21199943

>>21199032
you have to go back söi-trash
>>21198990
invest in oil - uso gush xom or whatever

>> No.21199946

>>21199677
I'm also sick from this "It's nothing burger" attitude. My country went through the same, all boomers on denials until we were too screwed to have time for any reaction, and so the crying and the regret began.

>> No.21199962

>>21199677

Are you having a stroke, Ranjeet?

>> No.21200183

if trump hadn't built that wall, i coudlve had my gardener fill up my tank after his gatorade break

>> No.21200205
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21200205

>>21198237
doesn't matter when we have digital oil.

>> No.21200358

>>21199681
Discovering new wells, laying the groundwork, pre-drilling activites and actually drilling the thing altogether takes months.
Sure they can just flick back on the switch for existing wells. But if there's no new wells to replace the depleted ones then production won't return to normal.
And if it doesn't, like I say, you're looking at a massive shortfall and an oil price spike.

>>21199962
Sorry, can't hear you over the sound of your economy collapsing.

>> No.21200574

>>21199275
lol

>> No.21200733

Buy oil stocks and bonds

>> No.21200734

>>21200358
imagine being this uninformed then flaunting it about on /biz/ of all places.... wait a second..... you fit right in here :)

>> No.21200774
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21200774

>>21200358
You really don't understand a goddamn thing about drilling infrastructure, but yet you decide to make this thread. Shale wells are not only easy to set up, shutter, and restart, A single drilling site can extend horizontally for and gather resources from an area that would have required dozens of old-school oil derricks. Additionally, a ton of the exploratory work in the shale basins has already been done. What the fuck do you think they were doing while it wasn't profitable to extract oil and gas? They were identifying where more sites should be drilled.

Also, the US petrochemical industry is massively shifting gears to use all that natural gas fracking gives off as a waste product. Buffet is all on it, as is DOW, Eastman, and ConocoPhillips. We're going to see a synthetic chemistry revolution in the US. But go on Timmy, keep running your mouth.

>> No.21200797

>>21198419
Then it'll be more profitable to drill and more supply will meet demand. Adam Smith was a smart guy.

>> No.21200861

>>21199032
>electric car
Most power plants use fossil fuels.

>> No.21200881

>>21200774
look at this retard who talks like a fag and shit

>> No.21200904

>>21198237
Less than 3 months ago oil was literally cheaper than free. it went into the negative. They were literally paying people to give it away because of storage costs. This is not a problem.

>> No.21200912

1. demand wont recover in a v shape.
2. imports can be ramped up again
3. production can either, think of canadian oil sand, etc

there is absolutely no problem a free market cant solve.

>> No.21200954

>>21199943
>>21198443
Yeah, because xom totally recovered from that march crisis. Xom is shit and going to be run into the ground, if you hold it you are a brainlet

>> No.21200986

>>21200774
This guy fucks

>> No.21201037

>>21198237
don't worry the fed will bail out fracking and shale, production will skyrocket and trump will buy it all to keep prices from plummeting

>> No.21201319
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21201319

>>21200954
I dont hold xom
Ever stop to think that anons prevent reeeing autists like you from benefiting from or fucking up the image of their actual holdings by keeping their mouths shut?

>> No.21201735

>>21200358
they already have locations for all there wells. I work in the business picking up rigs. Our spudder rig is drilling atleast 4-8 wells a week getting them all preped so the big rigs can come in and start. it only takes about 3 days for them to start drilling with the big rigs.

>> No.21201864

>>21201735
He's Indian, and likely a dalit. They've made billions of themselves and have a single Nobel winner to their name. Do you know if your company or the guys your prep for have been preparing to capture the gas that usually gets flared?

>> No.21202288

>>21201864
There is rumors of doing that my boss is actually wanting to invest into it. I think it would be a great solution instead of just burning them

>> No.21202653

>>21200774
I don't know about mining either but I feel confident talking about silver and gold
The US burns through a fuckton of oil, and it seems like production and imports are dropping, so it makes sense to question whether there's enough reserves to get you through it.
The US was a net importer of oil until last year, now they are again. But this time the Saudis can't bail you out.

>> No.21202914

>>21200881
Not a refutation, faggot

>> No.21202945

>>21202914
another fag who talks like a queer

>> No.21203082

>>21199677
We are all siting around waiting to shoot each other. The economy, corona, the dollar, and oil will all be irrelevant soon. We are on a knifes edge waiting for a reset. Considering we drive the global economy you should be worried, but not for us. We will reboot and start over. How will you recover?

>> No.21203147

>>21202653
You realize the US let the Saudis and the rest of the world supply cheap oil while we sat on most of our reserves right?

>> No.21203172
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21203172

>>21202653
The only reason the Saudi's were able to undercut the US's domestic cost for production was because they were engaged in a no-holds-barred price war with the Russians. They absolutely trashed their export economy pulling that shit, and now they can't afford to do it again. This isn't a question of the Saudis bailing the US out, they caused the problem because they can't be a good boy and stick to the OPEC price point. We literally topped of the US strategic reserves with our own production when the price of oil went negative due to futures contract fuckery. Unlike your shoebox nation, the US is actually capable of running beyond hand-to-mouth status on strategic commodities. Imports are dropping because the people who do this shit of a living know that domestic production is coming online again and that import prices are rising. Go have bot-tier opinions back on wechat.

>>21202288
He should. Natural gas is a potential feedstock for a colossal number of plastic products. Eastman Chemical was jizzing their pants about it in 2011, but now that fracking took off, they can actually get all that free gas to play with.

>> No.21203252

>US effectively energy independent
>Becoming one of the biggest exporters
>Reducing dependency on middle east
>PEAK OIL AAAAAAAH
zero hedge boomers..

>> No.21203369

>>21199677
>Romans acted while the Republic crumbled around them
the republic didn't crumble it got superseded by the much more stronger and centralized empire.

>> No.21203462
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21203462

>>21203369
That guy doesn't know the oil industry from his own asshole, you expect him to even know that Marius or Cato existed?

>> No.21203558

>>21203462
yeah I read the other comments he posted and realized he's an idiot. Shale wells are super easy to restart. Williston has dozens of nabors rigging sitting there waiting to go. A few days and they can all be back to drilling.

>> No.21203899

>>21199094
>>21200358
Okay, help a brainlet out here. What exactly are you expecting the consequences of this to be?
I take it gold and silver is a decent way to go.

>> No.21203984

>>21200774
>synthetic chemistry revolution
Where can I read more about this? What’s going on in this space now? About to start my Physics PhD and have always been interested in chemistry

>> No.21203997
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21203997

>Look at us guize, we has total oil independence.
>I sure am glad we aren't dependent on foreigners for our oil anymore

>> No.21204083

Does this mean my tanker bags will get lighter, heavier, or stay the same?

>> No.21204091

>>21203997
yeah COVID totally had nothing to do with it, it's all Drumpfmpffpfpf's fault

>> No.21204117

>>21203558
That's fine for current wells. But there hasn't been any new drilling or discovery groundwork done in months.
There are new wells that would be coming online now, were it not for covid, and they aren't, so you can't expect there not to be a drop in production into the future.

>>21203899
Well, oil prices spike in USD terms, essentially

>> No.21204144

>>21202945
Cope

>> No.21204170

>>21204091
you found some new technology that let you squeeze a bit more oil out of already empty wells
whoop de doo. how long before you're back to importing 5 million barrels a day?
or what happens when the rest of the world stops accepting your paper for their oil?

>> No.21204232

>>21204144
>>21204170
still prissying with that gay fag talk

>> No.21204255

>>21203899
America will collapse
Joe Biden will become president but Kamala Harris (his VP) will run the show and turn America into a communist state

>> No.21204294

>>21204232
keep projecting bud

>> No.21204317
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21204317

>>21203984
This was eastman's proposal, but its almost a decade old now, there have to be better practices.
>http://egon.cheme.cmu.edu/esi/docs/pdf/SiirolaNaturalGas.pdf

>>21203997
>>21204117
Hey dalit, you want to address what I told you here?>>21203172
All the fracking interests were doing was discovery and geology. Are you fucking stupid? The groundwork is already done, the exploration is already done, even before COVID they couldn't drill nearly as fast as they could discover good plays. I can absolutely expect there to be no drop in production because its spinning up right now. Do you think that the startup/shutdown time involved in these projects was an unknown? Stop talking out of your ass before I let a Brahmin know that you're on the internet making him look bad. Hopefully you reincarnate as something better than an untouchable. But your here spreading lies so I doubt it, maybe hope for a cat this time around.

>> No.21204319

>>21204117
read post >>21201735
i am constantly going to locations where they are drilling and setting up new wells weekly

>> No.21204458

>>21204317
Thanks anon. Does Zeihan talk about this new type of technology? If so, where?

>> No.21204476

>>21204317
You can keep calling me a pajeet, you're probably a literal mutt.
All I know is your domestic production barely covers consumption at the best of times.
With imports dropping, soon you won't be able to keep up.

>> No.21204527

>>21200861
The total carbon. footprint/environmental impact of an electric vehicle is still much less than the environmental impact of a standard gas powered car being used for it's average lifespan.

>> No.21204709
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21204709

>>21204458
Its in a couple of his newer talks to crowds focused on energy policy, but I think he just assumes they know what he's talking about. However, there are more presentations like this that outline what they want to do with it as a feedstock

>>21204476
You don't know a thing. Several people have corrected you in this thread, pointing out that the US absolutely does have the production capacity for oil and gas to be a net exporter, and only isn't in the short term because some camel jockeys decided to get into a self destructive price war. If you actually had data you'd post it. If you actually understood how oil production works, you'd counter our claims. If you knew the first goddamn thing about geology, exploration, and fracking you could maybe even keep up with your betters in this thread. As it is, all you can do is go, "NUH UH. YOU CANT MAKE OIL BIG LIKE NEED IT". You can't even connect the dots on why import numbers are dropping. You seem to think its some kind of strange conspiracy where the Saudi's are withholding imports to fuck over their best custom and only military ally. The reality is they just can't keep their oil cheap enough to compete any longer than they just did. Why don't you post a picture of your hand, or maybe your iris? After all, we're all white men here, right?