/biz/ - Business & Finance

>>20854404
The system is set up so the everyday consumer does not feel inflation too much. It’s the wealthy that must find new ways to make money off the large influx of cash they have just received. Inflation is behind the curtains in the form of the quickly increasing ‘wealth’ we see in the top 5%

>>20854404
Food, fuel, housing, healthcare have all quintupled since 2011. We are hyper inflating

>>20854485
This. Inflation has already happened and is now happening with equities. Part two has also begun, where the Dollar strength is falling. Gold, silver, and Bitcoin are on the rise. Things don't look so hot for nocoiners.

>>20854404
It's kinda sad how many tards are on this board, lemme guess, all you fags don't hold link?

>>20854404
oh that ones a little out of date
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2V

Land, healthcare, stocks etc are inflating rapidly

Food, plasma screens, iPhones not so much

Increasing productivity from technology and globalisation means that cost of basics is mostly stable but the money printing causes assets at the top to inflate

we are in a deflationary crisis. still bad but there is a reason why dumping millions on the market doesn't inflate the dollar and that's because the US basically sold out of currency. again, still bad. Friedman said in a deflationary spiral the US should dump cash from helicopters over US cities. Milton fucking Friedman lmao

>>20854783
what's going to happen next?

>>20854783
What exactly has deflated?

>>20854611
>chart ends in 2015
>t. retard

>>20854633
Ah that's better

>>20854633

I suppose the massive expansion of the money supply would bring down the ratio, even as total money moving is probably up

>>20854814
spending and gdp

>>20854485
Costco dog+drink is still 1.50 so no

The Feds better increase Bond yields to 10% to take all this BS money out of the system when the economy picks up.

>>20854611
velocity and CPI are a total meme

hyperinflation is happening in capital assets

>>20854404
Go through a drive through. Foods at least a dollar to two dollars more expensive then it was beginning of the year, and money velocity is only going up from here out.

>>20855062
I dont see any difference pal. The only place that raised their price was a pastrami restaurant

>>20854990
Hot dog plus drink everywhere else is 10 dollars at least

>>20855026
that's never going to happen. they almost crashed the bubble in December 2018 when they raised rates to 2.5%. TWO POINT FIVE. They had to start the downward trend again. It's a trap. There's no way to raise rates at this point. In fact, the only way to keep things inflated is to have negative rates effectively where there is ZIRP with high inflation.

Its hard to get hyperinflation is a society that also suffers from overproduction.

Its funny how faggots here never talk about how the great industrial powers in the last century literally fought wars to open markets so they can sell their shit because their default markets were more than oversatisfied with it.

>>20855096
no point in trying to reason with a doomer, even if you prove them wrong they fall back to the "w-well I'm gonna be right any day now, you'll see! J-just you wait!"

>>20854633
it can't stay like this forever, right?

>>20854404
2198

>>20855216

Exactly. PM anon (Argyrus) pointed this out when he was begging people to buy gold in May.

https://i.warosu.org/biz/thread/19669109

>>20854404
Get ready for face ripping deflation first, soon

>>20855219
dont marxpill /biz/. its 99.9% poors here looking for their moonshot. theyre gonna rise up if you talk like that

>>20855340
I mean I guess it is hypothetically possible but there's no reason to entertain that notion because the pandemic will fade and shit will go back to normal.
Obviously the economic damage in absolute terms from this pandemic is gargantuan but in relative terms to the overall economic output of the human race in a couple decades this shit will just be a blip in the chart, invest accordingly.

>>20855552
makes sense. thanks anon

>>20855340
One thing to wrap your mind around in all this shit is that the current economic crisis is caused by an exogenous factor that will just go away by itself but which makes the charts look funny when comparing them to how they behaved historically because the gov is pulling all sorts of abnormal tricks to try and counter the worst short term effects.
This is compared to a crisis brought about by systemic factors which is what happened in 2008 which is much more difficult to recover from quickly because the causes run deep and have been building up for decades before they finally reached a tipping point where shit went completely busto.

>>20855219
Theyre not overproducing homes. Nor doctors.

>>20855219
Lol. America doesn't produce jackshit anymore, that's the whole issue and point.

>>20855822

>>20855742
bullshit, bond yield curve was inverted for 5 months before the recession. this is the corporate debt bubble busting. SARS-CoV-2 was just the big ass needle that burst the bubble.

>>20854783
>trump bucks and everyone is on unemployment

Are you fucking retarded ?

>>20855026
What’s it like to not have an original thought?

>>20855880
This guy is a tard who isn't worth my time to converse with but if you're interested in reading about why he's an idiot this is a good article.
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2019/08/14/stunning-day-of-economic-gaslighting-despite-all-positive-data-corporate-media-cheering-for-recession/
Remember everyone was screaming "Trump is going to crash the economy as soon as he gets elected!" since 2016 and after covid fucked things up they got to say "See I was right!"
Don't fall for their stupid shit.

>>20855832
Oh wow. A whole SIX TIMES!

That's a trick of statistics anon, without a reference or comparison point, it's just noise and spin. But one thing I've noticed is Americans equate Dollar Strength with Patriotism a lot. The chronic abuse and mistreatment of the USD without consequence is destroying their nation. Breeding a master and slave class who seek to destroy everything that once made America great.

The collapse of the USD and its replacement by a non-fiat currency is perhaps one of the few ways Americans might be able to reverse the decline of their nation.

OR you can just act like a asshurt boomer about it and scream America #1. I don't want to see America destroy itself through denial.

>>20855982
Also absolute terms of corporate debt is irrelevant, what's important is the burden of servicing that debt and since interest rates were rock bottom it's actually irresponsible for corporations from a strategic perspective to not have taken on large amounts of debt to invest in expanding.

>>20855742
You lying fuck, the repo market crashing in September is the real cause of this, covid just exacerbates/covers it up.

>>20854783
isn't that what the stimulus checks are? helicopter money?

007 HERE WE GOOOO

>>20856033
gibberish

>>20856063
The repo market never was crashing, the repo interventions were happening because demand for dollars was too high because business was too good, in short, demand for dollars was too high.
As opposed to 2008 repo interventions which happened because of economic uncertainty leading to banks not wanting to lend because they were afraid institutions were going to go bust and not pay them back, in short, supply of dollars was too low.
Completely different situations
But dimwits like you just go "hurr durr repo intervention bad" and don't even understand the underlying issues.
Moron.

>>20856191
Anyway I'm out, gonna go watch the latest movies RLM recommended.
If you think I'm right long the economy and vote for Trump, if you think this idiot is right >>20856063 short the economy and vote for Biden.
Peace out.

>>20856251
anon, are you okay? perhaps you should go watch your films.

>>20854990
loss leaders anon, kept artificially low to draw people in. I've noticed meat and cheese prices are up about 20% just in the last three months.

>>20855982
damn that article is stupid af. The reason an inverted yield curve is considered a negative indicator is because it indicates that investors are afraid of a future short term drop in interest rates. The fed can be expected to drop interest rate targets during a recession to stimulate consumption and productive investment. The yield curve shape isn't a reflection of absolute demand for US bonds, its a reflection of the ratio of demand for short term to long term bonds. Investors consider US bonds to be generally "safe" since the US dollar/tbond market backs up the entire world economy, so the best an investor can do if they expect hard times is to take out long term bonds so they can delay yields until interest rates get boosted again.

take a macro class

>>20856468
>until interest rates get boosted again.
which is never
give the amount of debt in play, even a slight raise in interest rate is inacceptable
rates are set to stay below 0
>>20855219
hyperinflation and deflation will coexist, with basics needs likely increase in price
already started with food, everyone can see it

>>20854804
>current deflationary crisis means people are hoarding money no matter how much they print due to no velocity.
>when confidence returns to the economy people will begin spending that extra cash causing scarce resources to go up in price due to more people being able to buy more scarce resources and matching the sudden change in monetary velocity.
This is called hyperinflation.

QE and FED pumps are set up so that the created money does not necessarily reach the average consumer. The money flows to the big boys, big shadow banks and funds, who then invest their newly received money. The QE inflates assets and investments, not typical consumer prices*.

*This comes with the caveat thtaat ut does somewhat inflate consumer goods too, but far slower than it does inflate asset prices.

So where's the safest place to park wealth during this bullshit, other than precious metals?
Other real assets like Real estate, GLD, etc?

>>20856891
What about all this stimulus money, they want inflation so bad that helicopter money is next

>>20856794
Yeah, things are looking pretty bad. Who knows for sure. I really hope the economy pulls through now that I'm inches away from retiring with my crypto gains, but at this point wtf monetary/fiscal tools are they gonna pull out of their ass to fix this? I sure as fuck don't know.

Was just saying that investors will see bonds as "safe" regardless, and- assuming a recession happens, which turned out to be the right assumption- potential losses tomorrow are better than certain losses today.

>>20856191
>>20856251
lmao imagine believing that almost a whole decade of king nigger pumping moral hazard all over the world meant nothing happened because muh trump greatest economy ever
miga 2020 and trust the plan!

>>20856941
I don't know about real estate given that its a highly, highly leveraged market that's dependent on good job numbers to keep that debt afloat.

Commodities and things that act like commodities are maybe a good bet. Metals of course, but also oil, water, wheat. Cryptocurrency, maybe, but who knows. I'd like to think it acts like a commodity, but its also so tied to the tech sector, we haven't really ever had an instrument like it, and its never been tested in rocky markets.

>>20856941
Buy Yen

>>20857009
im not sure investors see bonds as safe, the only reason big players still buy them is in the hope they could make some profit by selling it later when rates drop even more
this is a structural trend, rates can't move up, market now it and play it that way

my portfolio :
30% gold and silver
30% cryptos
30% cash (paper)
10% food, ammo, gas, waterfilter, solar panel

>>20857287
Why? That seems retarded to me

>>20856950
That money will boost consumer goods and rents, but it's not big enough. Still the absolute hydrogen warhead of shitstorms and suffering are the FED's retarded pumps that have divorced assets and investments completely from the so-called "real economy".

>>20854404
It's already here and in full effect.
People won't notice that much because ownership of things is about to be abolished and life pretty much becomes a subscription/lease on a monthly basis.
This way people won't notice since everything is spent before the paycheck even arrives.

>>20857347
meant to attach picrelated

>>20857367
What's pictured here is the effect of QE-induced asset inflation, which real estate is part of.

>>20857406
...and?
Serious question.

>>20857440
It's not exactly hyperinflation in the common sense, it's hyperinflation focused on assets.